King's Disease ---- DraftKings | ROKU | Gold

So, can I breathe? Can I walk? Can I speak? Can I talk?

Can I floss without you wanting me outlined in chalk?

Family gossiping, pocket watching him

Jealousy keeps blossoming, ain't let it box me in (King)

'Cause you are not a king if you can't come out a thing

That you got yourself in, claiming nobody helping

The stupidest part of Africa produced Blacks that started algebra

Proof, facts, imagine if you knew that as a child, bruh

Nostalgia, how I remembеr things

Remember crowns, remember, kings

They want your reign to cease (King)

You a king, you will be next to me, doing your own king shit, most definitely

We're so "Say less when I speak", y'all estrogen speak

Respected by kings only, address me as chief

Invested in things only a vet would

Only lames front on kings, that's expected from creeps

You mad at my brothas and any woman with interest in me

Artist: NAS  Song: King's Disease

Can I floss without you wanting me outlined in Chalk

My next post is about the King's Disease. I like to post rap lyrics because the world has gotten so literal. The art of communication is to read between the lines and the ability to understand people, cultures, and society is lost if we lose the art of reading people - their words, actions, and body movements. The internet has taken all the guess work outta that when I can I just re-send an article/post/clip or even a meme and then I allow you to guess or interpret what I mean without simply sitting down and communicating with you directly. I interview people for work and it's amazing how many reads I get from a voice, a look, or a person's body movement toward the questions I am asking. So again I wonder if the Internet is a form of King's Disease. A luxury that masses want but oddly everything everyone posts (breathe / walk / speak / talk) is captured and scrutinized -- even worse it's often canceled immediately - "Can I floss without you wanting me outlined in Chalk"?

'Cause you are not a king if you can't come out a thing; That you got yourself in, claiming nobody helping

I am very independent and having children you learn very quickly that there is something innate in us as human beings in wanting to do things ourselves. My daughters, just shortly after turning 1, all of a sudden don't want you to feed them. They want to feed, walk, and do everything for themselves. But as we get older or sometimes as our confidence breaks we find ourselves blindly walking into situations that may not be healthy financially, physically, mentally, or spiritually. We all go through it --- racking up debt, late nights drinking, abusive relationships, and even challenging the need for spirituality in our lives. For a child, all it takes is those two or three times of not being able to get food in your mouth to start crying and asking for help. But as we get older, we learn this thing called denial and often we DO NOT seek transformation from within until we've hit rock bottom.  Notice, I listed my 4 Pillars above and  challenge myself, especially during the roughest parts of my day, week, month, year, life to revisit those pillars for support. I try to do more which oddly is like doing LESS --  MORE meditation, sleep, exercise, reading, praying, seeking counsel to right myself and my core. I do this to get myself out of tough situations and to make sound informed decisions so that I pivot out of bad situations and decisions. Also, I find during these moments, seeking counsel is humbling because I do not have all the answers. This is the cure to King's Disease instead of blaming or claiming nobody's helping. Competing with each other is self-defeating, but that's why we teach "competition" so much in our society. If we work together and take on the systemic injustices in the system, imagine that --- real change --- that's our competition.

The stupidest part of Africa produced Blacks that started algebra; Proof, facts, imagine if you knew that as a child, bruh

My cancel culture vultures will take aim at Nas for using the term stupidest. But if you read between the lines he is bringing awareness to the advanced, highly civilized accomplishments of early African societies. The fact that Africa is the birthplace of forming civilized societies living together, developing math, and methods of communication. This is clear...you just need to open a book or be taught in school. I remember planning my trip to Africa and my then girlfriend asked me about safaris and jungles?? I didn't blame her but elementary, middle, high school, and college had failed her, us and our society. I knew since a child that safaris were more common to Sub-Sahara Africa, and other parts of Africa had deserts, and hills, mountains, waterfalls, and forests. The funniest thing is my mother's two story home in Western Africa is bigger than any home I lived in until I bought my duplex condo unit in 2010 at the ripe old age of 30. Proof, facts - my mother's crib in Africa was bigger than anything I lived in in America until I reached the age of 30. I wonder if an inadequate education that doesn't focus of contextualizing historical and factual information is King's Disease.  I used to travel to London often for work and remember an interesting interaction I had at a bar in the Picadilly Circus area in the West End of London. My co-workers and I easily stood out and our version of English clearly marked us as Americans. I am also sure it was our love for khakis and polos, which clearly are NOT in the British dress code. The men are often well-dressed during the work week and suits and ties are still the norm, even for the gent I witnessed riding a bike to work in a suit.  But back to the bar --- this woman from the BBC was chatting me up at the bar and inquired what plans I had for the weekend. So I asked what bars and restaurants should I visit and got a curt response of what "CULTURE" would I be taking in. I didn't understand exactly what she was talking about so I said what do you me. CULTURE, she said what CULTURE are you taking in. She proceeded to school me on the importance of knowing history, different cultures, and art. Something I almost never hear AT A BAR in America. In London, ALL of the museums are FREE. So I went to the Tate Britain, The British Museum, Imperial War Museum, Windsor Castle, and others to soak in CULTURE. I saw artefacts from all over the war dating centuries back...but it also opened my eyes that to the victor goes the spoils. There were items clearly belonging to African and Asian cultures of important value and they were in a British museum. What if America made all our museums free, I wonder if the awareness and appreciation for a global world would increase. Thank you to my friends in the UK, for a moment, I was suffering from King's Disease.

Stocks Fit for a King

Draftkings Inc  NASDAQ: DKNG  - I entered this stock after I learned legend, icon, and NBA greatest of all time Michael Jordan toon an equity stake in DraftKings.  He will become a special adviser to the sports betting and fantasy sports company and maybe read my posts about the unleashing of sports gambling on America. Recognize what's coming - states are drowning in debt and will want to dip into this revenue pot along with Marijuana legalization as they usually embrace quick fixes to solve problems. Don't believe me, look at my bet on Ceasars Entertainment, they were bought out by PENN National Gaming (PENN) for a nice profit.

Roku Inc  NASDAQ: ROKU - Roku is my COVID-19 investment play. It aligns with my larger theme of cutting the cable. America's appetite for staying open and not addressing this disease head on means people with be home streaming the hell out of this service. I wrote earlier this year about cutting off my cable service...sorry Comcast and we don't miss it for a moment. Roku is a day trader's dream because it is a more volatile than a teenager in HBO's hit series Euphoria. I place a HUGE bet on ROKU and each week I trade against it for additional income. The worst is these income producing bets cause me to have to sell my base position early. The upside, is currently during the entire COVID summer I've been collecting 100s of dollars a week of income as the stock moves up in trades that might take the stock off my hands (i.e., like a pending trade offer for my best player). Like Jay said the industry is shady and needs to be taken over --- so I'm coming for the crown. King shit Nas

Gold - I wrote just a few posts ago that this rally in the stock market is artificial. The Federal Reserve is single-handedly propping up the markets and has printed over $7 Trillion dollars to stave off foreclosures, companies closing, and high unemployment. They deserve to be applauded and certain politicians probably deserve to lose their job as real people are hurting. The only problem is this analogy: The Federal Reserve is akin to your family using a credit card to stay afloat - to pay the mortgage, food, car, and school bills. Eventually the credit card company will cut off the credit and/or ask you to pay it back. In governments, paying off debt usually means services are cut - government workers - post office, city transportation, trash and sanitation. It also means tax hikes in the future. Hikes in the future means inflation will be in our future --- assets that are not in dollars is the bet to protect your dollar. Gold, Silver, and yes even Bitcoin might be the play to diversify this historic helicopter money printing effort.  I didn't even mention, that UNTIL there is cure or bold steps taken LIKE A BUBBLE to stop the disease from spreading ---- people will continue hurting and the Federal Reserve may have to PRINT MONEY until things improve. Yes I own Novagold, Warren Buffet owns Barrick Gold, IAU is an ETF as everyone is winning now but there is always a cold winter. 

Stay blessed, stay safe, get your URB own

Store My Gold on Racks (GOLD, GDX, GDXJ, RXT)

Need for a Bubble

So in my last post you saw my brief tribute to Nas and Lauryn Hill. They are true giants, in my opinion, in lyrical expression and miseducation. Similar to Lauryn Hill, my blog is a miseducation on life because it asks you to wake the F%!# Up and think. I call my version of miseducation -- unplugging from the matrix. Don't get my blogs twisted, in order to wake up you need to ground yourself in the 4 Pillars we often cite here. One of the biggest being education and continuous learning...I call it SLAM +, please look up my post on Science, Legal, Arts, Math and + (technology and trades skills). I heard today COVID-19 has shown a disparity that I'm sure in negatively effectively some of my readers. College educated workers, especially those with 401K retirement type accounts are thriving in this pandemic. One of the root causes --group most likely to Work From Home.  Which then allows them to sit back and throw stones...like a common phrase I've heard: "Why were the unemployed getting an extra $600 a paycheck?"  This is the type of bs I can't believe we are still discussing...they must have been listening to Jay because --- they have no passion, no patience, and I guess they hate waiting --- on items like evictions, unemployment, safety of front line workers, etc.  Unbelievable, you want to send the less fortunate to the front lines while we can chill at the crib, reducing our risk, while watching the Federal Government bailout our 401K plans and re-inflating them past their previous levels. I guess main street doesn't get a bailout that rivals what your 401K got?  When I made a decision to WFH over 3 years ago, I vowed to never return to a physical office ever again. Many laughed at me when I gave them my risk assessment but look at where we are at now. I told you then and say it now, I can get my work done, take care of my family and better use my free time (while often working more hours) at home. But this benefit I've worked hard for, doesn't mean I should forsake my front line brothers and sisters. They need the best security, protections, and piece of mind for their families like WFH gives my family.  OHH did I mention, I am assisting my daughter with her virtual school program -- not exposing my baby to unnecessary risk when the National Basketball Association just showed all of America what is needed to survive and thrive in this pandemic --- A BUBBLE...sound familiar.  

Storing My Gold on Rack

I could give you my best Tyga, Rack City impression because I am a fan of his music but I think more importantly a fan of his mindset. If you recall, he was one of the first defectors from Cash Money Records when his L (in SLAM) - Legal contract appeared to be whack and NOT in his and his family's best interest. He was called names and the cancel culture told him be happy with what Baby (owner of Cash Money Records) gives you and did for you.  How did that turn out...well years later let's ask Lil Wayne who was also disgruntled and this led to The Carter V album release being delayed over disputes about...yep you guessed it his contract. At the end of the day, you have to do what best for you and your family and I have always rocked with Tyga before and definitely after that move. I'm not even going to touch the Kylie Jenner subject because at that time I was quoted as saying she was the most "down to earth" Kardashian Jenner AND I thought her then Social Media business empire was growing quite well. Fast forward to today and a company I owned Coty (cosmetics industry) bought a 51% for a roughly $500M stake cementing her Billionaire status. Now every hit song he writes, he gets a full "Taste" haha pun intended of the profits!

So Tyga let me tell you about my Rack City:

I have not been shy about owning GOLD in this economy. History has shown when the Federal Government prints money out of thin air to inflate the economy (and then does it at the fastest clip ever seen in history.) then it's time to put GOLD on my investment rack. My previous posts disclosed that I own shared in a small mining company called NOVAGOLD (NG) and I also like the Gold and Gold Miner ETFs. I've even disagreed with one of my first mentors Warren Buffett by owning GOLD since the 2008 financial crisis when my Billionaire Boy Club buddy John Paulson introduced me to NovaGold to hedge the pain of the financial crisis. Another time in history that we printed money like nobody's business. 

1) I agree with Warren that Gold has NO intrinsic value, and 

2) I agree that it should NOT be usually held as I technically have NO way to value this asset. 

However, assets like GOLD do have a place in this world and that is when there is FEAR in the water. While I am not fearful of much, I do think the US economy is at one of it's most dangerous crossroads possibly ever. The divineness is HIGH as people are diving the country along racial, economic, and social issues. So I am glad to hear that Warren the teacher, has done something that his pupil has done since 2008 --- buy GOLD!!! And he did in a major way:

1) Warren Buffett and the Berkshire team purchased a $562-million stake in Barrick Gold (GOLD)

2) He also SOLD --- most of the major US banks (JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs)

Warren won't be speaking soon on TV soon because he doesn't want to scare the masses that follow what he says. But like systemic racism and oppression, I have a responsibility to speak out and keep it real. I would follow what he's doing BUT I already own GOLD, but will consider evaluating Barrick Gold. Investors make purchases like this when we see risk in the economy. Go back and search my posts using the term GOLD and you'll see I own:

Novagold (NG)
Gold Miners Juniors (GDXJ)

and like but do not own:

Barrick Gold (GOLD)
Gold Miners (GDX)
Gold ETF (GLD)
Gold ETF (IAU)

I'm even re-thinking my position on Bitcoin as its a useless asset but if I believe there is trouble in the water, I want to consider assets people will run to.

 In honor of Tyga, Mr. Rack City, I also purchased shares of this stock:

Rackspace (RTX) - around the $17.5 range, the word on the streets is Amazon is sniffing around this company. Time to take a flyer on my version of rack city!

Novagold (NG); Gold Miners Juniors (GDXJ); Barrick Gold (GOLD); Gold Miners (GDX); Gold ETF (GLD); Gold ETF (IAU); Rackspace (RTX) 

What Coronavirus Risk --- The Markets Have Roared Back

What Coronavirus Risk --- The Markets Have Roared Back

First I want to say WOW, the markets have bounced back in a loud way. Louder than my Cross Colours 👚clothes back in the 90s. I have been on a number of enlightening calls in the last few weeks to gauge the pulse of the us --- the people --- the consumers. I keep my ears to the streets to see what real people are doing and if it’s in line with what I hear in the news --- I do this because I am wary of Headline Risk. One hot topic is Real Estate and I’ve been very surprised to hear what people are doing in this space. Of course job security has been a frequent discussion as well. For example, bankruptcies are occurring as companies navigate the crisis. And stimulus oh my – it seems that the Federal Reserve and Congress have somewhat been on the same page and don’t care about debt, inflation, or the next generation because they have pumped a record 4 Trillion Dollars into the economy. It’s much harder to invest during a crisis because there is so much news and information flowing -- Headline Risk. The amount of texts I get and send about breaking news and events is way up. So I usually like to keep things simple and you got a glimpse of that last month:

Contagious Health Pandemic à BAD 👎

Administration Response to Pandemic à BAD + SLOW👎👎

Stimulus from Fed Reserve + Congress à Very Good (Rollout of Stimulus Checks – slow; PPP – well let’s just say the LA Lakers, a Billionaire’s holding company, and a rich Florida Homeowner’s association all got a $$Million$$ dollar checks before small businesses on main street did. Changing from Very Good to Good 👍👍

News of Re-openings à Risky (Again unorganized but I understand the need to get people back to work) 😬

News of Treatments à Very Positive as I wrote about Gilead and Remdesivir very early on 👍

News of Vaccines  à Nothings seems imminent until 2021 w/ one big exception the Oxford vaccine out of London I believe could be promising as they were already working on a coronavirus vaccine and are using those building blocks to fight COVID-19. 👎

You do the math from what I’ve listed out and you’ll see why I split my investment strategy.  Without a vaccine, a contagious health pandemic is very dangerous and now cities have run the numbers and can’t stomach the shut-downs any longer…even if it means deaths tick up higher.  But 4 Trillion of Stimulus will make some of us temporarily forget we are in a crisis – but will everyone get a piece of this helicopter money strategy.  So my calculation is this:

• I need my retirement income protected – Retirement Funds out of the market ✅
• I need some exposure to Stimulus induced rally – Personal Investment Account (very active and I’m looking for big gains and possible exits) - Teladoc, Uber, Match, Roku, Gold ✅✅
• I need to cut costs and stockpile cash – Refinance, apply for stimulus funds, cut costs in my family budget ✅ (Comcast and Insurance cos I still owe you a call)

Headlines Versus Real Life

Headline -- Mortgage rates near record lows — and green shoots emerges as Americans prep a move back into home-buying

Real-Life – In the last few weeks, I’ve heard people are putting in offers, closing, and trying to move from being renters to owners. If the price is right, go for it because rates are low. Still a little surprised at the pent up demand here.

Headline – Banks are requiring HIGHER down payments (often 20%) and higher credit scores; JP Morgan and Wells Fargo have stopped Cash Out Refinances / HELOCs

Real-Life – Back in March, I told you to refinance and get cheap cash while you can. The Banks are sleepy and slow but are they are finally tightening the screws. I know of a Cash-Out Refinance recently closed and I got instructions to lock my regular refinance rate a few weeks back. Normal refi’s will still be occurring but look for more scrutiny because of the jobs landscape due to COVID-19.  As far as Cash-Out Refis, if you were slow this source of cheap cash may be narrowing.  

Headline -- Mortgage forbearance (program allowing people to NOT pay mortgage) has ballooned up to 4.1 million borrowers/ Over 7.5% of home loans

Real-Life – I have heard real stories of mid to large sized landlords saying their tenants have lost their jobs and their rental income is impacted. Do you fault the tenants for not diversifying their tenants or simply forgive tenants and renters because this is an act of God. What about this -- how long will eviction moratoriums be in place by cities AND will people pay – back rent and back loans may be too much for people to pay plus their normal rent when the economy picks up. This is the area that concerns me the most especially since I’m hearing of people buying homes NOW. Is this the tale of the halves and have nots or are people a little too early into a looming crisis?

Headline -- In roughly 6 weeks, unemployment claims have jumped to 30 Million people and projections of roughly 47 Million are being forecasted as the peak (by the Federal Reserve St. Louis)

Real-Life – Over the past few weeks, I’ve heard about management changes at corporations, bankruptcies, and mainly furloughs. Thanks to some courageous leaders many companies are pledging to NOT layoff but I’ve seen the layoffs in the restaurant, hospitality, entertainment, and travel industries. For example, United Airlines which accepted “stimulus” money will keep employees on the payroll until the money runs out. It’s April and they have already told staff to take 20 unpaid days off before October AND will lay off 30%.

I did my analysis back in March so I would not suffer from analysis paralysis today. You can easily get caught up with ALL of the changing headlines. I am preparing for the long winter like in the Game of Thrones. United Airlines is a big and resourceful company – if they have enough information in their crystal ball in May to a) take the stimulus money and b) still announce layoffs of 30% in October what does that mean for the economy, stock market and jobs picture. I always want to have optionality – you see I’m setup like United to ride the stock market being fueled by a) stimulus.  I’m only roughly 10% away from my all-time portfolio highs (4 Trillion in stimulus will do that I guess) but I’m slowly exiting winning positions AND my retirement funds are now not moving until I understand what United sees coming in October. Maybe they see reality sinking in once the stimulus wears off that we all must come together – stringent distancing, an effective treatment, bountiful productions of a vaccine, and less fear in the air.   If NOT it will be a long cold winter.

Dow at 14000 (Pt.3) - The Markets Will Go Lower!?!

If you've followed my last few posts its very clear by now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is trading right around 14,000.  The Dow is a broad representation of many companies throughout the US and is often used as a indicator by many investors. These levels are significant because they are very near all-time highs and more importantly a representation of how far we've come. If we go back four years ago, the DOW was at roughly 8900 and thanks to the American people, companies, government we've bounced back almost 50%.

  In PART 1 of this series (Dow @ 14000), I tried to show you how information available to the public can be used to develop your direction on where the markets are headed.  In short you should always be invested in the stock market but when the market is cheap you should invest more and when its expensive you should pull back some.  So clicking on the link above helps to show that through a little research the average investor can pick up on some signals that assist us in knowing when to buy stocks.  And who better to get some tips from then billionaire investor, David Tepper.  

So we participated in this nice run up in the markets, however; the REAL question is... will stocks continue to go up??  I guess the first thing to point out is there will be a correction! A correction in this case will be a pull back or a move down in the stock market. Simply put, a correction will likely happen because the markets have moved up in a straight line.  And think about the markets like you think about dieting...it never goes in a straight line (no one loses all of the weight all at once).  There will be really good weeks and a few bad ones and while the markets are getting healthy and losing the weight but they haven't had any setbacks.  You can almost hang your hat on the fact that there may be a pullback because so many investors are talking about the need for one to justify that this market is for real (one with fluctuations) and not just some type of fad (like with diets).

So now its time to listen to some really smart people who believe the market(s) may go lower.  First up is Jeffery Gundlach who predicts that another crisis is coming to world markets who will try to stall by pumping money (see 'Making It Rain')...however; this story likely leads to inflation and possible default for some countries. I've read the following link and found his points very interesting:

Gundlach's Negative View On Markets

Now that you've read the article along with me, I find it interesting that Gundlach wants to buy the following hard assets: 

• Gemstones,
• Art, and 
• Commercial Real Estate

When it comes to stocks he'll be investing in the following types of equities:

• Chinese stocks
• Nat Gas producers
• Gold Mining stocks

The next investor that believes that the picture is also a little murky is Marc Faber.  Please click on the link below to hear why Marc thinks the markets are due for a pullback:

What do you believe?!? If you feel that it's intuitive that markets can't just go directly up then you may be in the camp for a pullback because that is natural and healthy.  So you could benefit by selling some of your winners and/or by waiting for a pullback to buy more stocks.

1st Quarter 2012: 4 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts. Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

1st Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts
I’ve been out digging in and hoping to find a few diamonds. One thing that was consistent about these picks this quarter is they are beaten down bunch. Some are showing a change is coming, others have dashed the hopes of many investors, and then a few look like they are just chugging along. Technology, Gold, and Healthcare appear to be the themes for this quarter.

Stock #1: **********
Details:
Sector: Technology
Industry: Networking & Communication Devices
Tip You may want to plant this technology company.

Stock #2: **********
Details:
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Tip 2 for 1 when it comes to this gold stock.


Stock #3: **********
Details:
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
Tip This biotech company got taken out to the gun range.

Stock #4: **********
Details
Sector: Technology
Industry: Communication Equipment
Tip Is this technology company real? Ask R.R. and W.E.C

Happy New Years

Happy New Years from URBANOMICS

I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Years. To all the first time investors, part-time investors, or people interested in their financial well being: Welcome to the site that explains everything financial in an easy to understand format.  We have it all covered from how to check your credit for free, tax advice, and where to invest in the complex stock market. 

3rd & 4th Quarter Premium Alerts

Due to my recent travels I was very late in posting my 3rd quarter premium alerts.  So this post includes alerts for 7 new stocks.

The third and fourth quarter of 2011 produced seven stocks that Urbanomics paid subscribers will have access to review.  These stocks are consistent with sectors or value plays which I believe should outperform in the current economic environment.

3RD QUARTER STOCK ALERTS

1st Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
OIL and NATURAL GAS
TIP: This stock pumps premier gas for profits.


2nd Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
TECHNOLOGY
APPLICATION SOFTWARE
TIP: This tech stock continues to innovate outside of the box.


3rd Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
FINANCIAL
REGIONAL BANKS
TIP: This stock's cash flows in waves.

4th Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
SERVICES
ENTERTAINMENT - DIVERSIFIED
TIP: This services stock may know more about you than you think.

4TH QUARTER STOCK ALERTS

1st Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
GOLD
TIP: ??


2nd Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
TECHNOLOGY
TIP:  This technology stock is a Silicon Valley staple.


3rd Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
FINANCIAL
LIFE INSURANCE
TIP: ??

Note: This is an alert that this was triggered for URBANOMICS Alert Subscribers. Please email for access to subscription based contents.

IPOs, A Little Defense, & China's All Star Team...

Initial Public Offerings (IPO)
Guess what's back in vogue, the wild rush of buying an IPO.  This is usually reserved to investors who are highly coveted, so usually not you and me.  However, a little unknown tip is that you can call your brokerage firm and ask if there is a process for you to sign-up or participate in IPOs.  You might be surprised that some of your favorite companies and their products have recently gone public. Check out these IPOs:

What's Up With The Economy, The Deficit...

That is a really good question, "What's Up With the Economy?"!  The best analogy is the economy is sorta like a really nice business train that is slowly chugging along and starting to lose passengers at each stop.  I think this is an accurate picture because the data is definitely mixed, showing corporate businesses are doing quite well and chugging along, like the train.  The passengers being lost at each stop are comparable to middle-class Americans that are being negatively impacted by: 1) high gas & food prices, 2) declining housing prices, 3) still high unemployment numbers.  And the biggest problem is JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, or the lack thereof.  Jobs are so critical because they give Americans confidence that the economy is getting better when they see their neighbors getting up and going to work, coming home with bags of groceries, and investing in their homes.  So who is focusing on getting more Americans jobs? That's the question that needs to be asked of everyone from the president and his administration, to your senators, then your local congressmen, and also of the companies that are doing well.  Every moment should be spent on turning the dismal job scenario around and we've seen our politicians come up with some solutions but not nearly enough.  The formula is not that difficult as it usually comes down to stimulating Americans and stimulating the companies who are tasked with hiring more Americans.  Its a shame the debate in Washington is whittled down to spending versus tax cuts, but that has been the case.  Last time I checked both scenarios cost taxpayers money but are needed to bring this economy back to life.

2nd Quarter 2011: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

The second quarter of 2011 has produced three stocks that Urbanomics subcribers will have access to review.  These stocks are consistent with sectors that I believe should outperform in the current economic environment.

1st Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
OIL & NATURAL GAS
TIP: This oil & gas play has planned big changes coming by the end of the year. Look for it to double, literally!

Click here for the other two premium alerts.

Competing Interests...

The current economic environment and its effects over the last few years has made the competing interests of various groups more pronounced during these times. This is why I wanted to write a post about competing interests. Recently, I was reading about the self interests of people as it relates to the low interest rates, which have been rock bottom for a long time now. I was surprised when I learned that savers and risk adverse people (think older adults nearing retirement) are not too excited about the prolonged low interest rates which are not earning them much money on their safe assets in their savings and retirement accounts. Even though the general thought is low interest rates are helpful in stabilizing and spurring growth in the economy, some competing interests say enough is enough. They are saying this because they would prefer to go back to living off higher interest rates. As I begin my data dump of thoughts for the month of April, I find myself torn like many of the elderly who likely want the economy to do well but want their interest income to jump back to life.

March Matrix Notes

I could do a follow up on why I'm a MACROVALUEQUANT, but who has time, its time to unload my thoughts and unplug from the matrix. I do a lot of reading on the train and listening to the radio and have started taking notes. In the past few weeks, I've tuned into the following discussions and readings:

Ray Dalio (find his discussion on CNBC)
Mr Dalio is the hedge fund titan who runs Bridgewater Associates and rarely makes tv appearances (I heard). After a few moments of defending his unusual methods running his firm, the man behind the world's largest hedge fund was very open about the cycle of leveraging and deleveraging and where the US is at in its cycle after the crisis. He talked about the following subjects:

He noted US Equities are cheap and will benefit from currency devaluations
The money flows will benefit equities
Portfolios are not properly weighted, too much in dollar denominated currencies
Gold is a currency that many are underweight
Stimulus will last through the 4th quarter, and private credit growth will be needed

Oil - The Game Changer

This phrase is often used in sports to describe one person that can change the outcome of a game. In many investor's opinion, Saudi Arabia is the country that is a game changer when it comes to oil. You are already aware of the unrest in Northern Africa and the Middle East and this has caused oil to spike (yes, also some speculation by greedy investors has also led to the spike). Many say that the spike would be even larger!!!...if Saudi Arabia was to see the same type of unrest. This piece of news was just broken:

All that Glitters...Might be Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium

I have to admit I am big on Glitter right now. And I am not referring to Mariah Carey, who may have done an album and movie with the same title. I'm taking about the glitter of shiny metals. You know the metals that coined the phrase Bling Bling in the hiphop world. Don't believe me check out the old Cash Money Record artist BG who had a huge song that turned this phrase mainstream.

But back to my purpose for writing this article. My goal is to point out that it appears we have been fairly right about the direction of the economy and how it keeps chugging along. This is a slow and steady chug that has been scary because at times it feels like we could fall back to those dreadful days of 2008 & 2009. I struggled back then with identifying exactly how to setup and reallocate my portfolio for the future. If you recall I was in the camp that the economy was really bad and I even made the drastic decision to pull the string on all risky and mediocore stocks in your portfolio. The fact is they never should have been there but thats another story for another day. My guess back then was to increase your exposure to the following investments:

~ Gold (through ETFs)
~ Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (commonly known as TIPS)
~ Dividends

Well it was arguably a good call back then but the hard part for me was actually finding out the best ways to take advantage of this strategy. I have been very slow outside of identifying the obvious which is through ETFs. So I am going to place more of an emphasis on the identifying which stocks can help fulfill this strategy.

These asset classes are important because the Federal Reserve is acting to stimulate the economy which is suffering from limited core price appreciation (inflation) and job losses (9.6% unemployment, 17+% underemployed). Because politicians won't stimulate the economy the Fed realizes that someone must. They shouldn't be the only game in town because they don't have all of the tools...like say calling for a tax cuts or passing a huge infrasture bill. So their best solution is to flood the economy with CASH. This does a few of things:
1. Makes holding safe cash investments less desireable; stocks and riskier assets will rise
2. Supposed to make banks lend more because interest rates will be low and attractive
3. Make American made goods cheaper and easier to export as the DOLLAR loses value

Where I plan on exploring:

Hard Assets - Not just Gold but silver, platinum, palladium, real estate tend to rise in value and the dollar loses its value. These are stocks I will be exploring more of:

• Glitter ETF (GLTR) - Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium
• Barrick Gold (ABX)
• ENSCO (ESV)
• Cheasapeake (CHK)
• Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)
• Mariner Energy (ME)
• Ultra Petroleum (UP)
• Interoil (IOC)
• Platinum Groups Metals (PLG)
• Plains Exploration (PXP)
• Gold ETF (GLD)
• Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
• Petrobras (PBR)
• Suncor (SU)
• NovaGold (NG)
• Cobalt International Energy (CIE)
• PetroHawk (HK)
• Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS)
• Vale (VALE)
• Allied Nevada Gold (AMV)
• Exxon Mobil (XOM)
• Gammon Gold (GRS)
• Minefinders (MFN)
• ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG)

TIPS - no change here, this was a good call and inflation, while low now, should increase. Don't believe me check the FED minutes where they outright said they are looking for higher rates
Dividends - I like the recent stocks CLCT, IRM, RSG, EPD and other solid dividend plays.

As you can see I've got some work to do to find value for the future. Peace

Wall Street - The PULSE

Hey everybody I am back to hit you with a quick post to keep you in the loop with what's going on in the stock market. By now, I know the average person is paying attention on a daily basis because I get a weekly call from my sister asking me about why things are falling or more importantly what should I be doing with my money. And if you recall when you don't hear much from me I am usually doing one thing and that's reading. I am constantly reading about what everyone has to write and listening to what everyone has to say...to get a feel of the market's temperature. How can you do this?!?! Well simply start by tuning in here as often as you can to get a pulse, not always daily but a frequent pulse as to what may be changing out there. And if you get tired of reading, check out CNBC's homepage and select the VIDEO tab for very frequent video posting of their on air show.

Wall Street's Pulse - Awhile back I compared Wall Street to a prized fighter that was down and out, maybe like one of my favorite fighters Roy Jones Jr. The latest prognosis is still not that good...the patient needs help getting up in the ring right now and the count keeps going to about 8 (get to 10 and the fight is over). For those of you that don't know what a knockout blow is for Wall Street, well its would be a depression. And the trainers right now are the Obama Administration, The Treasury Department, and The Federal Reserve. They are constantly looking at the fighter, checking its vitals, and assessing how to help him keep fighting. But right now the vitals of Wall Street do not look good:

• Unemployment numbers continue to rise and have now been estimated to reach over 10% within the next year or so.
• Companies continue to cut jobs left and right and give not so rosy outlooks for the rest of 2009
• Consumer Savings rates were above 5%, which is at levels that we haven't seen in a long time!
• Retail Sales numbers are barely off their lows, which means people ain't buying!
• The consumer and companies are still having difficulty getting access to capital.

Investors (who are like the fans in the stands) have sobered up to these realities and almost given up on the fighter, but the trainers keep working. And their work seems to be helping the fighter get a little bit better:

• Banks are receiving more and more capital
• The stimulus plan and housing bills are aimed at helping home owners and generating jobs
• There is talk about adjusting mark to market (how banks place a value on assets they own)

What this has done is given the investors a little bit of hope that the fighter may come through and still win the fight. So they have started cheering louder and louder and the fighter has responded. The stock market has rebounded off of its March 9th lows and the banks have come back roaring. But its almost as if the crowd (investors) forgot that the fighter is still hurt and hurt badly. That's why may believe that the stock market is in a BEAR RALLY. This means alot of people think the fighter is healthy but in reality he's not. And soon those cheering fans will see the fighter get knocked down again and they will not cheer as loud.

Now onto what I believe and what I'm doing:

I believe the fighter is still hurt badly which means don't cheer (or buy stocks just yet). I truly believe that safer alternatives are out there and should be evaluated for your portfolio. I still like OWNING CASH, and not doing a whole lot especially in your retirement portfolios...don't be the hero or the only one cheering when the fighter just got knocked down again. Invest in safer alternatives:

Cash
Gold (GLD)
High Yield Corporate Debt (LQD)
Municipal Bonds (TFI)

And if you feel like you need to be in the markets, be careful and be a bottom feeder...the nastiest thing out there. Wait until things gets really bad and nibble on the most beaten down sectors. For instance I do this when the banks look really bad, like when everyone though Citigroup was going out of business and I buy just a little bit of the bank stocks ETF on steroids (FAS)...it gives me 3X the returns of bank stocks, but I bite just a little. And when things start to look like they are on a roll I sell. I don't panic about selling to early because in a few days I start to look for a point to be a top feeder and bet that things will come back down and buy the FAZ, which bets the banks will fall...TIMES 3X! But don't stick around to long in these trades or else you'll be writing me with heartburn as I have often had, but irrational fans sober up eventually.

Dark Knight ~ The Economy

Or should I saw dark nights and days are hovering above the economic horizon (the only idiot that can't see this is Larry Kudlow...who thinks this is just a blip in an economic "Goldilocks" rally) What do I mean by this...well I won't act like the politicians and keep telling you about my record on how I got this right (but if interested see my last post)! Because at this point in the game, pats on the back won't do because I believe we are in a seriously bad spot right now in the economy. I am going to continue to break course from my usual buy and hold mantra and say that we are in turbulent times and with the actions taken by the federal government make it difficult to take a historical perspective and apply it to today's situation. The fact of the matter is things are changing very rapidly...in ways that we haven't seen before and even your smartest people are having trouble getting this right.

Backdrop:

And I know that you are often told if you are young investor then just weather the storm and it will be alright. But as a 20 something that has seemed to be ahead of the curve of the direction of this unbelieveable storm that is now upon us, my interpretation is to head to safer ground until the storm passes. Why because we've been ahead of the game a few times now: I have written posts using logic and my very basic understanding of Econ 101 to identifiy the potential for a housing bubble...then we were ahead of the curve when we combined the everyday realities ofsoaring energy and food prices to point out that the average person on MAIN STREET (i hate this term) was already feeling the effects of inflation!

The Federal Reserve finally caught on and to their credit took some action to combat the inflationary pressures of soaring food and energy prices, however, one problem was still left unaddressed and that was the housing bubble. Limited action was taken to help main street solve the mortgage crisis which spilled over into Wall Street. Wall Street felt the effects through deteriorating mortgage backed securities and a rising waves of credit default swaps (basically insurance to investor when toxic securities began to crumble). You may call it karma but our inability to help main street has seriously crippled wall street. In my last post, I tried to highlight this problem and indicate that I believe that even with a much needed bailout package we haven't truly explored all of our options to begin to resolve this crisis and a 360 degree approach my be needed. To make a long story short, I believe the Fed now sees the need for some of the points that were raised in the last post, such as stepping in and being an intermediary for short term lending to companies (basically being a bank & lending companies money b/c the banks don't to and can't do it right now).

If you weren't aware companies are having trouble getting short term loans (for supplies, payroll, etc) and many get their loans through a market called commercial papers. We have previously raised a point in the previous post that the Fed may need to "act" as a direct lender and today, the Fed, concerned that the commercial paper market has dried up look to breathe life back into this market by basically providing companies with short term funding.

Current Environment:

I believe the storm is just setting in because of the aggressive and unprecedented steps that the Fed (some listed above) has had to take along with the most recent words from the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke. I know you don't think words are important but when one of the most financially informed persons on the earth believes that the economic outlook has "worsened", economic activity is likely to be "subdued", and the financial turmoil may "lengthen weak economic performance" we must all take heed. I am hear to tell you that the Fed Chairman never wants to scare us but he must paint an accurate picture...and when he uses words like subdued economic activity then we are probably going to experience some serious economic pain for a period of time.

Supporting Evidence:

~ Fed Chairman's recent words
~ Today's global rate cut by the US and other major central banks
~ Commercial paper markets (corporate short term funding) has dried up and the Fed has announced that is will step in and create a market to revive this much need source of funding
~ The economic slowdown and financial crisis is spreading GLOBALLY
~ The bailout will take time help financial firms solve their liquidity problems
~ Rate cuts along with other things historically push INFLATION higher

Problem Solving (Only my recommendation):

~ If you are an older person nearing retirement, you are in a very difficult situation and I don't have many solutions here

~ Middle aged people and people with children: you have a few other responsibilities that will need your immediate attention, so capital preservation will be very important (see below).

~ Young people, I am going against the grain and telling you to be concerned and focus on capital preservation also! Move 401K balances, IRAs and brokerage accounts into safer grounds and due to inflationary concerns that appear to be surfacing I would reallocate your portfolios in this order (if possible):

• Gold (as fears continue this is a global safe house and great inflation play)
• Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (this security give you the Treasury yield and accounts for the rise in inflation)
• Treasury and Money Market Securities (safest investment out there, but inflation will eat away at your savings, eventually)
• Bonds (even bonds have lost money but obviously a better option than stocks)
• Smart Dividend and Value Stocks - At this point I am recommending this only for your brokerage account and don't go for the highest yielding firms b/c they may be the first to cut their dividend (i.e., Bank Of America), which means that stock will then fall sharply. Look for the the stocks that will continue to pay a dividend and increase their payments (Kinder Morgan - Jim Cramer pick, Enterprise Partners - Urb pick, GE - Urb pick are names that will help you pay yourself during this tough economic period)

I'm Out!

Wall Street Gold Medal

Going for gold might be replaced with the phrase 'Going for Phelps' one of these days. But if you are in the financial markets getting your Michael Phelps on has been difficult because the markets have been more volatile than a crazy ex-girlfriend. If you know where I am going with this she's up one day and then flying off the charts the next day in the other direction. The nice thing is I have been picking good girls lately as stocks and I haven't been whipped around as much as others have. If you followed our post just a month ago, I posted the steps to navigate these choppy markets --> http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/07/navigating-choppy-markets.html.

One again the market has had two sharp day to the downside, however most investors feeling the brunt of that pain are people exposed to the financial sector. After recent articles spooked the investment community, investors have been selling off banks and Fannie and Freddie rather quickly. There have been articles that have highlighted that another big bank may go under due to the ongoing credit crunch. Then Barron's pointed out that there is a likelihood that the government may have to bail out Fannie and Freddie which could leave current stakes invested in the government sponsored agencies worthless. All this proves is that financials suck and will continue to suck for the forseeable future. Why people choose to ignore that fact is beyond me. In your 401K plan or in your IRA, I would stick with less volatile investments at this point like the Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). This is still a solid pick because the Producers Price Index (PPI) was recently released and again inflation is steadily rising. And in my brokerage account I see myself steadily moving towards dividend yielding stocks, technology, transportation, and infrastructure plays.

And for a quick discussion on some of the stocks in my actual portfolio and/or in my stock tracker portfolio:

Collectors Universe (CLCT) - Although, you may want to smack this company like many others for spending without a conscious, they have announced a strategy to cut back on expenses now that their gem grading business is gaining traction. I hope that this business continues to take off like I observed after reading the last quarterly report and while we wait enjoy the 14% dividend this stock touts. I know the fear may be that the dividend will be cut due to such a high yield, but as long as the payments are made keep 'collecting' and participate in a dividend re-investment program (DRIP) to obtain more shares at these low prices.

Burlington Northern (BNI) - This transportation company has whethered the storm and continues to hold steady. Transports should benefit from the declining oil prices and stronger pricing power. I ain't selling until Buffet does.

Microsoft (MSFT) - Thank goodness the Yahoo mess is over and the world can move on and realize that MSFT is a world class technology company that continues to sit on an unbearable amount of cash. I would prefer that they start to increase the dividend amount so that I can get paid as I wait for great results from these guys. I would take dividends here and partipate in the DRIP.

Radisys (RSYS) - This stock reported great earnings and analysts raised the expected guidance for the next quarter by a whopping 9c! It holds steady on these tough days and usually outpaces the market on good days. It hit a bit of a rough patch after insiders sold in the last few weeks but the downside should ease and this stock should move higher.

EPD, ETE - This is a play on natural gas and I like the pipeline stocks in the future because there is good dividend insulation which should be re-invested for a great long term gain. The yield is around 7% here and is considered stable.

MOVE - This stock has rebounded from the dungeons of $2 after their earnings announcement and will move higher as real estate eventually rebounds way down the line from now.

China Digital (STV) - STV is like an ex-girlfriend and is more volatile than a Jerry Springer show. I think the international slowdown causes this stock to sag and the drop has been sharp. This stock rebounds when the market is positive and does so rather sharply. I would recommend adding to your positions slowly.

AK Steel (AKS) - I believe is still a solid company but get out of the way of the commodities. Its like trying to catch a falling knife and thats not too smart.

EWJ - Great play on the downturn in the international markets, especially Japan.

OPTR - Don't know a lot about this stock which met my screen. It was up sharply then retreated. I don't own this stock but would look to take profits after another quick run up.

Fact or Fiction

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were off roughly 45% this week.

- FACT: These are Government Sponsored Entities (GSE) that engage in mortgage purchasing and providing funds to mortgage lenders, respectively. Their stocks prices have tanked this week from fear of going bankruptcy. However pay close attention because many on Wall Street believe that some type of government bailout will be necessary to save these firms.

Inflation on the rise.

- FACT: Inflation or at least the fears that your dollar is stretching thinner and thinner continues to rise. Normally during times of inflationary concern, investors would flock towards a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or government bonds but that is not happening. Should you be concerned, YES, because you must follow the money and Wall Street is telling you to be concerned because the price of GOLD is rising, OIL has pushed through record prices, and ohhh I forgot the housing and auto industries are collapsing. Don't believe me, see the lastest story about Indymac, which became the largest US bank in history to be seized by the government.

You should feel good about the market, and keep holding on to your stocks.

- FICTION: Sorry folks for the first time ever my outlook is very dismal from here. If you are a gunslinger, then please at least hedge your portfolio against further downside risk. For the rest of us, continue to sell most of your winners, cut your ties with losers, and get defensive!!!

Your defensive plays are:

OIL : Problems in Iraq and Israel & Iran, disruptions in Nigeria and Russia ALL mean oil will continue to rise. I don't believe speculators play a big role in the price and I don't think the potential of domestic drilling will impact the short term price.
GOLD: Gold is on the rise and so are future prices, which means that investor faith in the dollar continues to decline.
CASH: Cash is always KING and have cash in your portfolio ain't always a bad thing. Wait out this storm, because it could be awhile.