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Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts

Friday, September 16, 2022

The Rebirth of Slick - Baby on Board (Snowflake | Volatility)



Hello to all my Urbanomics readers out there. I have amazing news to share. My family welcomed our 4th child and I'm officially a proud father of my first baby boy!! So, it's time to celebrate life and put your priorities first. I have 4 children, 6 client engagements we currently support, 4 employees, and 3 renters that I interact with. So, I have an entire village of people that look to me for leadership and guidance -- and I take that responsibility very seriously. Every addition to my village, creates more work and stress and it's my job to remove some of that burden. I try to do that through automation (which makes certain task easier), hiring staff to take on repeatable jobs I used to manage, and sometimes flat out saying no - no more work/emails/phone calls. I had to do that the other day when a prospective business partner kept reaching out for me to provide one of my cybersecurity consultants for their project. I don't mind helping but when you call 3x in 30 minutes you are bordering on being annoying and disrespectful and I shared this feedback with that person. 

So, a key Urbanomics lesson I wanted to share is create a plan this will ensure that you move towards a common goal. I have a 60+ point task list that I have my staff check daily to ensure we are taking care of our responsibilities. We must complete timesheets, bill invoices (Accounts Receivable), pay vendors and bills (Accounts Payable), purchase office supplies, execute payroll, and the way I ensure things don't slip through the cracks is by planning. We plan ahead and measure our progress against those plans and milestones. But remember, life will throw you curve balls, and you must hang tight and adjust your plans when needed. 

When it comes to the markets, I still see an economy that's peaked and starting to slow. While I keep getting requests for more jobs, I have to be careful in extrapolating my view into thinking it matches everyone else's view. For example, just because I'm seeing growth in the cybersecurity compliance sector, the layoff stories and reports of slowdowns (did you hear the FedEx CEO on a looming recession??) may be telling a bigger story to come in a year or so. I anticipated the stock market still dropping so you'll recall I moved my retirement funds to cash towards the end of 2021. You've heard me writing about optionality -- and I love taking my ball and leaving. I don't mind throwing the middle finger up and saying I'm gone. Why? Because I like playing games that I can win --- games on my terms and right now the market is a rough game. Just like the real estate market, I'll wait you out.

See these trades I've made recently: short term small hits are what I'm trying to execute on. I executed these trades awhile back and haven't been active. Read a recent post and you'll see my investment themes:

I like beaten down TECH and Volatility as pain is ahead. And I don't just share my wins, I was playing Energy and got a little bit loose with a naked trade I was forced to close in Devon Energy.

Stay balanced, celebrate the wins, learn from your losses. Sending love to all. Peace out:

Recent Trading Wins: 

Snowflake (Theme: Beaten Down Tech)
VIXY (Theme: Volatility Trade)
Redball (Theme: Hedge against my SPAC investment, this will turn into a small gain of roughly $200)


Recent Trading Loss:

Devon Energy - I was playing loose and trading naked. I traded more shares than I owned. When Devon Energy popped the other day, I was forced to sell my position at a loss. Sorry Warren I got greedy and I own this mistake. But also I close my losses and move on.




Saturday, August 04, 2018

Apple Proves Value Investors Like Tech

Many people know my personality is similar to my investing style...I tend to go against the grain.  As a techie, I don't love the Apple phones for a technical reason it's a closed source ecosystem. Unlike open source devices, Apple prefers that you use only their software and products. I have to remind people that Apple did not invent putting things in the cloud, sending files/messages should be something you should be able to do to any phone, and chargers are meant to be universal.

But in order to be a good investor your personal preferences should NOT interfere with buying stocks.  While I don't own the phone, I don't dismiss many people around me use the phone. Or the fact that iTunes gift cards are a normal gift around the holidays without even asking me if I am an iPhone owner.  But these aren't the reasons why I decided to stake a claim in the value play a few years ago.  Many forgot back in 2016, Apple was trading under $100 dollars and there was fear they wouldn't be able to break into China and growth had stalled.  But as Apple continued to reinvent itself, I saw value in a company starting to pay a dividend, expanding internationally, and growing a profitable services and payments business. So when there is fear in the water you stake a calculated claim on an old dog that still has a few tricks.  Being in Risk Management, I had fun analyzing this stock and pulling the trigger when everyone was saying I got in too late. At an average of roughly $93 dollars, I was betting on a growing dividend, growth in China (maybe India), apps being the future (including iTunes), and logical determination that Apple phones would become larger as I knew people would share my frugal sensation over phone/tablets or phablets if you prefer (why have one of each when supersized phone does the trick).  I am not placing a big bet on Payments yet because I tend to know a little bit about this space. While people love the technology...I think there needs to be one wallet that can travel with you as you change from an ApplePay, SamsungPay, GooglePay....and merchants are CHEAP so it will be a very long time until every store and gas station pay for upgrade technology that supports these new types of payments.

Many say value is dead but I argue, you have to look in the right places. I just read an article about how Warren Buffet and Berkshire are enjoying the amazing gains of Apple. I laughed because I'm wondering if the pupil is finally learning from the teacher...looking back I bought Apple prior to when Berkshire made their purchase:

Post Mentioning Apple:
https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2016/10/how-to-invest-in-clinton-trump-election.html 

Wall Street Journal: Buffet Bet Big on Apple


This has also happened with Teva Pharmaceuticals recently so I hope to keep the streak alive and maybe may a few future recommendations...one Oracle to another. :)

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Urban Download...

Am I a degenerate investor...YES!  Most people will attest to the fact that I have a Wall Street Journal with me everywhere I go.  I like reading and taking in data because these bits of data each day may eventually lead to bigger things.  I may wanna know about the latest technology that is disrupting 'Business As Usual', random opinions about why gas prices are high, and I even keep up with companies that are Buzzworthy.  Some of these are great for talks around the water cooler, others good to know, and just maybe one day I may connect some dots and find something that makes a compelling argument for an investment one day.

Technology Disruptor

VIBER (http://www.viber.com/)

This app for your phone seems like a really cool idea.  They've been labeled the Skype for your phone and claim to allow you to call and text any other user for FREE.  No user ID is needed because it recognizes your phone number once downloaded and even automatically adds any friends that have VIBER without needing to search and add for those users.

Anyone using this app...please post your feedback

Things that Make You Go Hmmm....

I was listening to people that follow the market and the Gas industry and found the following details interesting:

1) Gas prices have been up every day since Jan 17th
2) Whenever gas has hit $3.80 as a national average...the economy has turned sour
3) From here going into the summer driving season, gas prices usually rise another 26%

Buzzworthy

Groupon - Everyone has an opinion on this stock. They reported earning and the market didn't like what it heard.  Down 24% 
GRPN Story

Zynga - The hitmaker of your favorite apps is making a brake for the 'Online Gaming' industry. Stay tuned. 
Zynga Bets On Gaming

Herbalife - The debate continues on whether this company is legit or a Ponzi Scheme.

Hewlett Packard - Back from the brink of death??? They will be selling a $169 tablet.

Yahoo - The CEO (Marissa Mayer) just told their employees that telecommuting is no longer an option. Ouch...get back to work.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

4th Quarter 2012: PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS


4th Quarter 2012: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

4th Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts
My 4th quarter picks are FINALLY OUT. I’ve been researching these stocks over the course of the last 3 months of 2012 and found 3 stocks with margin of safety and the right catalysts.  Please see the following stocks that were sent to subscribers receiving premium alerts. 

Stock #1: **********
Details


Sector:
Technology
Industry:
Multimedia & Graphics Software
Tip
Moving around on Mars?

Stock #2: **********
Details


Sector:
Financial
Industry:
Property & Casualty Insurance
Tip
Nothing says thank you like a lawyer.

Stock #3: **********
Details


Sector:
Industry:
Tip
You might confuse this stock for a car.


Its January and my newest picks are finally out. Stocks have moved up nicely so finding value is no easy task. Stay tuned for my stock reveals from 2012.

3rd Quarter 2012: PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS


3rd Quarter 2012: 2 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

3rd Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts
I’m still on the constant search for value. Please see the following stocks that were recommended to subscribers receiving premium alerts. 

Stock #1: **********
Details


Sector:
Technology
Industry:
Application Software
Tip
I think of the movie Matrix when it comes to this stock.

Stock #2: **********
Details


Sector:
Basic Materials
Industry:
Oil & Gas Refining
Tip
Check mate when it comes to this stock.


For anyone playing at home, guess these picks...sorry for the late time stamp but subscribers received these stock picks in the 3rd quarter.  Enjoy

Saturday, June 30, 2012

2nd Quarter 2012: Premium Stock Alerts


2nd Quarter 2012: 4 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

2nd Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts
I’ve been out digging and hoping to find a few diamonds in the ruff.  One thing that was consistent about these picks this quarter is they are beaten down bunch and we are seeing the big companies being unloved just as much as other stocks.  Some are showing a change is coming, others have dashed the hopes of many investors, and then a few look like they are just chugging along.  Financials, Oil and Gas, and Technology appear to be the themes for this quarter.  These alerts went out to subscribers in May and June.  Take a guess if you enjoy playing at home.

Stock #1: **********
Details


Sector:
Financial
Industry:
Life Insurance
Tip
Do you know your number, get your money’s worth?

Stock #2: **********
Details


Sector:
Industry:
Major Integrated Oil and; Gas
Tip
This stock and my pub have a few things in common.

Stock #3: **********
Details


Sector:
Financial
Industry:
Property & Casualty Insurance
Tip
This stock hopes to put its hanky panky behind it.

Stock #4: **********
Details


Sector:
Industry:
Diversified Computer Systems
Tip
I used nutmeg, then took a tablet and now feel better.



Monday, April 02, 2012

1st Quarter 2012: 4 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS


Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts. Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

1st Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts
I’ve been out digging in and hoping to find a few diamonds. One thing that was consistent about these picks this quarter is they are beaten down bunch. Some are showing a change is coming, others have dashed the hopes of many investors, and then a few look like they are just chugging along. Technology, Gold, and Healthcare appear to be the themes for this quarter.

Stock #1: **********
Details:
Sector: Technology
Industry: Networking & Communication Devices
Tip You may want to plant this technology company.

Stock #2: **********
Details:
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Tip 2 for 1 when it comes to this gold stock.


Stock #3: **********
Details:
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
Tip This biotech company got taken out to the gun range.

Stock #4: **********
Details
Sector: Technology
Industry: Communication Equipment
Tip Is this technology company real? Ask R.R. and W.E.C

Monday, December 12, 2011

3rd & 4th Quarter Premium Alerts

Due to my recent travels I was very late in posting my 3rd quarter premium alerts.  So this post includes alerts for 7 new stocks.

The third and fourth quarter of 2011 produced seven stocks that Urbanomics paid subscribers will have access to review.  These stocks are consistent with sectors or value plays which I believe should outperform in the current economic environment.

3RD QUARTER STOCK ALERTS

1st Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
OIL and NATURAL GAS
TIP: This stock pumps premier gas for profits.


2nd Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
TECHNOLOGY
APPLICATION SOFTWARE
TIP: This tech stock continues to innovate outside of the box.


3rd Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
FINANCIAL
REGIONAL BANKS
TIP: This stock's cash flows in waves.

4th Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
SERVICES
ENTERTAINMENT - DIVERSIFIED
TIP: This services stock may know more about you than you think.

4TH QUARTER STOCK ALERTS

1st Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
GOLD
TIP: ??


2nd Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
TECHNOLOGY
TIP:  This technology stock is a Silicon Valley staple.


3rd Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
FINANCIAL
LIFE INSURANCE
TIP: ??

Note: This is an alert that this was triggered for URBANOMICS Alert Subscribers. Please email for access to subscription based contents.


Wednesday, July 13, 2011

New Tech Titans, Double Dips, & Don't Label Me...

New Tech Titans

The technology field is definitely active as social networking, gaming, movies, and music continue to seamlessly weave themselves into our daily lives. It's time to refresh your memory on the new tech titans on the block.  First off, Facebook leads the charge with their recent announcement of new features: (1) group chat, (2) new designs, & (3) video chat. Many people can't wait for the day this stock IPO's or goes public.  Next is Google, who is offering Google+ a competing social network site and chomping at the bit for more targeted advertising.  And then there is the simplicity of Netflix.  Netflix is now streaming throughout many homes on a regular basis and they are betting that you will stick around even as they raise prices.  Sorry to break the news but Netflix prices are going up for everyone...will you pay up?

Other hot technology firms are Linked In, Pandora, Zynga, Square, and others which are changing the way we interact, watch movies, and listen to music. Then we have Groupon which could be potentially be valued ar roughly $20 Billion dollars when they IPO, or become a public company.  The question often asked is “Do You Remember The Technology Bubble?” and is it happening all over again. I do believe that some of these firms are legit, but I think a few won't be as popular as they are today. Stay tuned for further posts as I tackle which technology stocks will survive the digital renaissance.

Double Dip??

The economy may be suffering from a really bad hangover that was worse than we originally thought.  Financial stocks, housing stocks, and high levels of consumer debt make you wonder if we've learned anything at all from the 2008 crisis.  I just don't have the feeling that we are out of the woods yet and I've been cautious for quite awhile.  I don't think I am alone anymore as there have been rumbling about more stimulus...is there Quantitative Easing on the horizon, well the Fed might think so.  Can you say QE3

Friday, June 03, 2011

What's Up With The Economy, The Deficit...

That is a really good question, "What's Up With the Economy?"!  The best analogy is the economy is sorta like a really nice business train that is slowly chugging along and starting to lose passengers at each stop.  I think this is an accurate picture because the data is definitely mixed, showing corporate businesses are doing quite well and chugging along, like the train.  The passengers being lost at each stop are comparable to middle-class Americans that are being negatively impacted by: 1) high gas & food prices, 2) declining housing prices, 3) still high unemployment numbers.  And the biggest problem is JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, or the lack thereof.  Jobs are so critical because they give Americans confidence that the economy is getting better when they see their neighbors getting up and going to work, coming home with bags of groceries, and investing in their homes.  So who is focusing on getting more Americans jobs? That's the question that needs to be asked of everyone from the president and his administration, to your senators, then your local congressmen, and also of the companies that are doing well.  Every moment should be spent on turning the dismal job scenario around and we've seen our politicians come up with some solutions but not nearly enough.  The formula is not that difficult as it usually comes down to stimulating Americans and stimulating the companies who are tasked with hiring more Americans.  Its a shame the debate in Washington is whittled down to spending versus tax cuts, but that has been the case.  Last time I checked both scenarios cost taxpayers money but are needed to bring this economy back to life.

Wednesday, June 01, 2011

2nd Quarter 2011: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

The second quarter of 2011 has produced three stocks that Urbanomics subcribers will have access to review.  These stocks are consistent with sectors that I believe should outperform in the current economic environment.

1st Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
OIL & NATURAL GAS
TIP: This oil & gas play has planned big changes coming by the end of the year. Look for it to double, literally!

Click here for the other two premium alerts.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Dec 21 2010: Technology Stock Recommendation

There is a technology stock that has shown up on my radar for some time. I often do my research and wait until it hits my price targets that I think are critical. Because any stock may be worth a BUY at the right PRICE.

I'm transitioning to my new format where I will alert you all here of the recommendation. And then I will release the stock at a later time after I've had an opportunity to reach out to any that sign up for my new service. Stay Tuned!!!

Stock: ******
Technology
Software and Programming
Small-Cap
Hint: Penny Stock that appreciates the IPhone

Monday, September 10, 2007

Why fly to tech...

Because, I'm like a bird I wanna fly away. That was my best version of Nelly Furtado and it was darn good. I can't go pop so time to get back to the basics. You wonder why previously I said their has been flight. You usually here the statement: "There has been a flight to quality". And all of a sudden the industry that we all have been running away from since 2001 is now the one that we are flying back too now that the financial bubble begins to rear its ugly head.

As usual I try to do the one thing most stock pickers don't do. All the websites and TV shows recommend picks but they don't do one thing that would have been helpful for me when I first got started and that was to recommend great entry prices. There have been a few simple concepts that have made a huge difference in how my returns affect my portfolio. Over the years, I have come to realize that entry price, transaction fees, dollar cost averaging, dividends, and earnings releases/market news have been important in understanding the stocks I pick and how much I buy and how long I hold. I would like to say that I am on the cutting edge by actually recommending an entry price but there is probably someone else out there making a bold leap and doing the same. But even some of my favorites, Jim Cramer, Fast Money crew, and Jim Jubak recommend picks but not exactly the entry price. Jubak probably comes the closest by disclosing he will purchase the stock three days (I think its still three) after he has noted that he will be buying the stock. So here goes my take on good ole' technology:

Adaptec (ADPT) $3.40 – Every portfolio needs a little risk and here is mine. This beaten down warrior blasted through its 52wk low. I see momentum action here that will create a floor and push this stock higher. If this stock every dips back to my recommendation price Superman that stock. I got in at $3.54 and since then this stock has gone up $3.82. It has come back a little and due to the markets negative outlook. I would accumulate at $3.50s if it dips and ride the short term wave to a nice quick gain. Save a little in the tank as this will be a great long term play.
Risk – Medium - High
Time Horizon – Short Term

Advent Software (ADVS) $39.25 – Another area not hit by the credit woes is technology. This company reported earnings in August and sales of their software geared towards investment companies and non-profit organizations grew at a decent clip. With the adding of new customers and management’s willingness repurchase the firms shares when they are trading at a discount, this company will continue to be rewarded for growth and look for an exit point of $45 to $47. My quick update is this stock is volatile and a little patience will be rewarded if this stock gets down back to my recommendation price.
Risk – Moderate
Time Horizon – Moderate Term


Zhone Technologies (ZHNE) $1.10 – Many well known investors note they would probably be small cap traders if they could start all over again in today’s world. And I don’t disagree with them. Small cap gives you the opportunity to accumulate a large number of shares just as a private equity firm would accumulate a large number shares for their investment portfolio of today’s medium and large cap stocks. The practice is to load up on a good thing (most funds hold a majority shares in the top 10 companies) and ride the great returns. But the problem with small cap stocks is risk… or should I say the perceived risk that in one quick swoop your $1 stock can become worthless. The way I recommend playing small cap stocks is find your entry point and give yourself some margin of safety to buy the stock. For example, I have indicated a target price for ZHNE of $1.10, but this is the margin of safety price after I noticed momentum at the $1.15-1.17 range over a month ago. On Aug 16, the death day of the market I got my margin of safety price of $1.10 and rode ZHNE for a few days and sold at $1.20. Well more momentum action is occurring at $1.20. I would say this consistent action should reduce our margin of safety and I would re-recommend ZHNE here at a range of around $1.15 to 1.17.
Risk – High
Time Horizon – Short Term

Ohh and I almost forgot my favorite tech stock of the moment, Radisys.
RSYS - This stock has tested the limits of the faint of heart. Many people watched this stock dip below the 52 wk low and thats when a technique that we discussed above came in handy. Dollar cost averaging allowed us to continue to buy this stock as it fell. The price here would be around the mid 10.80s. The "Superman that stock" price would be where I got lucky and repurchased the stock at 10.50s. If this stock drops to 10.50 I repeat...bring out the 18 Wheeler and jump all aboard. Notice the recent news of RSYS acquiring technology platforms from Intel has fueled a nice rally today. It could have been picked up today at around $11 but the nice upside move is just what the doctor ordered. It was reported the new acquisition will be completed in a little over a month and add around $50 million to the bottom line. Music to the ears of us buyers here at this point in the stock. Look for the completion of the acquisition and if as earnings begin to be revised upwards by analysts covering the stock...get ready for takeoff.

I'm Out....PEACE