Seasonal Selling or A Top In the Stock Market

If you follow most of the commentary right now about the stock market you will see that a common theme is whether you should "SELL IN MAY".  This is a common seasonal trend in the stock market when trading in stocks becomes thin as more traders head off for vacation.  I guess this is somewhat true as I have to head to London here shortly, but its not exactly for vacation. But soon after that I'll find myself in Las Vegas for a little R&R, so I guess this trader will be off eventually for a few days.  There are a few people that are speaking a little louder and signaling that it may be more than seasonal.  I tend to listen to these voices if I find some of the points that they are highlighting credible.  I also tend to tune into these point of views more as friends and family begin to want to talk "shop" with me.  If my friends are asking me about the stock market and telling me how well its been moving and that they have to get back in because they've missed the move up, I start to think.."Uh-Oh the trend may be the markets will start moving down".  When the average Joe is jumping in its usually to late, the smart money has already pounced.  So I am a pretty average guy, so how does this effect me!  Well when I start to get scared about the markets, I try to do the opposite of my impulse and buy.  When things are getting really rosy, I try to sell even though I don't want to.  When I started getting more people talking shop, I sold a few positions, but to be fair, I added a few more of my PREMIUM ALERT picks. The one caveat is I am adding picks that might survive a tough downturn.

Here is a snippet from a BLOOMBERG article of an investor who's painting a picture that's less rosy. Attached is the link to the full article: 

John Burbank, founder of $3.8 billion hedge fund Passport Capital LLC, said he expects a U.S. economic recession this year or in early 2013, according to a letter to investors.

Thanksgiving - Plenty to Be Thankful For

First, I would like to apologize for the pause in posting of my thoughts, articles, and trades. The last month has been very fast paced with lots going on. I was in Vegas for training and learned the latest developments in the banking industry. Then I was off to London to actually do some work.  I did get some time to enjoy the weekend in Vegas and celebrate my birthday...let's hope I'm getting wiser with age.  Here is a rundown of what's going on and specifically what to be thankful for:

Market Recession or Rally??

Rally or Recession...

Roughly about a week ago we all were a little queasy after viewing our portfolios and 401K accounts.  The economic picture in the US and in Europe made us all nervous and sent the markets in a spiral downward.  The levels we briefly hit were low, so low that it nearly reached a 20% drop from the peak of where the market were earlier this year.  This dubious drop is typically referred to as a 'Bear Market'.  Since April, the markets have dropped about 17% from its levels at that time and have been rocky since then.  Sooo are we back and is this RALLY for REAL???  Well you may not like what history says about 'Bear Markets'!  Bear Markets are often marked with quick bursts of large gains like we've started to see last week and into this week.  Why the roller coaster ride, maybe its because we (e.g. investors) have no clue each day which direction we think the markets are heading.  And if we are clueless, history has often indicated that reality will often set in and then begins to turn back down.

URB Brief Notes:

- Netflix fumbles and backtracks. They drop separate websites, keep the high pricing and continue to disappoint.

- Sprint tumbles on news that costs are rising. Not to mention they aren't selling the I Phone 4S, which was just released...just the I Phone 4.  I haven't seen David Einhorn bolt from his position so hold tight and double down off the 52 week low.

- I'll be releasing my latest quarterly alerts shortly, an interesting bunch. 

Competing Interests...

The current economic environment and its effects over the last few years has made the competing interests of various groups more pronounced during these times. This is why I wanted to write a post about competing interests. Recently, I was reading about the self interests of people as it relates to the low interest rates, which have been rock bottom for a long time now. I was surprised when I learned that savers and risk adverse people (think older adults nearing retirement) are not too excited about the prolonged low interest rates which are not earning them much money on their safe assets in their savings and retirement accounts. Even though the general thought is low interest rates are helpful in stabilizing and spurring growth in the economy, some competing interests say enough is enough. They are saying this because they would prefer to go back to living off higher interest rates. As I begin my data dump of thoughts for the month of April, I find myself torn like many of the elderly who likely want the economy to do well but want their interest income to jump back to life.