Sears / Kmart - Blue Light Special Losses its Flicker

In a constant search for deals, you have to be watchful of a company that is down and out versus a company that is down for the count. As you've read in the previous posts, I have not been able to find very many beaten up companies and the economy continues to steadily improve. My favorite has been Lululemon (LULU) and I stuck with it through the rough patch. The good is they delivered great news during their last earnings announcement and rose over 10% after that announcement!  Now we are on to the next potential candidate.

Sears Holding (SHLD)

Back in the day Sears was one of those places I remember going to for all of my needs. Then came the competition from Walmart, Target, and the INTERNET. Sears even bought Kmart (big blue) and that still has not turned this big company around. My quick assessment is Sears is big and burly and has not attracted me with lower prices or easy store locations to navigate to. So for me, they often lose out to Amazon, Target, and my local grocery store.  Sears has been on my radar as a company that is definitely down and out. The latest news is now they will be borrowing money from their CEO and hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert. They will borrow roughly $400 Million dollars which is abnormal and smells a bit like desperation. I think other investors may agree with my assessment as Sears stock has fallen from somewhere in the $40 dollar range to $27!!!

Sears is not only down but likely knocked out for awhile. The one thing I will watch closely is the CEO. Why?... because smart people usually don't throw good money after bad. Eddie Lampert may be trying to save face by continuously trying to revive a sinking ship...OR he may just have one more trick up his sleeve.

URB Assessment:
I don't shop here, the prices still are the lowest, and the stores have not been remodeled in quite awhile. I am curious if it can get any worse so a VERY SMALL investment could be stored away for a rainy day. But I don't think this company is a hidden value waiting to be unleashed. More like a Boxer than needs a new trainer or recognized its time to retire.

Markets...No Longer 'Starting From the Bottom'

I have not written a post in a while and I guess I fall into the age old Wall Street saying: "Sell in May and Go Away".  This phrase is well known in the investment community and is used to describe the the summer season where investors like myself find better uses of their time than keeping up with the stocks or the Kardashians.  I have kept fairly busy and have been distracted by a nice summer of sun, sports, and home projects.  Being busy has reduced my investment activities and I guess that I was 'busy in May...and went away'.  So the question is are you missing out on in the markets, this summer??  As you know, I always start with my view of how I believe the economy is performing. Here are some of the things I've observed: 

Work and Mobility Increasing
- People continue to work more
- More Job Openings / Recruiters Calling
- People Accepting New Jobs
- More people moving to new homes/ in-state/ across state lines

Frugal Country
- Pay is increasing slowly upwards
- People are looking to continue to reduce their expenses,
- Find affordable housing and living
- Everyone is looking for deals

Controlled Splurges
- More Staycations (Stay at home vacations - theme parks, bed and breakfasts, etc) Also 1 tank gas trips
- People waiting for great deals on vacations
- Tech Purchases: Phones/tablets, touch devices - People want exciting devices that make their lives easier and considered cool

What this means to your portfolio:

The stock market is often a leading indicator and has been doing VERY well for the last few years. To put it into perspective...I heard a stat that I found amazing: At one point stocks, specifically the SP 500 had 75 days without a correction recently. This means things have rebounded very well and astonishingly there hasn't been much of a pause.  So using my best Drake impersonation...this market is definitely NOT "Starting from the Bottom". Do I have some grand plan...Yes and NO.

My Investment Plan
- Don't do anything grand :)
- Take notes from Drake: This market started at the bottom (hit bottom) in 2009 and 2010 and now we are here at market highs. I have kept it simple...Starting last quarter whenever the Dow Jones enters into the 17000 territory I take the time to SELL some of my big winners at the top. At this point, I don't mind holding a bit of cash, buy something paying a dividend, and or wait until stocks I like drop.
- Activate the Activist Investors: When I sell some winners, I'm buying stocks that may rise quickly because they are being bought by other companies or are being pushed to do something by big time investors like: Carl Icahn, John Paulson, or myself, The Oracle of Hyde Park. Here is my quick list:

TIME WARNER CABLE 
ALLERGAN 
LULULEMON
HERTZ

Personal Finance - Lowering Your Cell Phone Costs (UPDATE)

The budget revolution is on it's way and no one can stop us from only paying for what we use and want.  The "pressure" is turned up and AT&T is getting burned by the T-Mobile offense.  AT&T is having to aggressively match the prices of rival T-Mobile who is taking customers away by the boat load from the industry.  Here is my second update in about a week on how you should demand more from your service providers:

Breaking News: AT&T DROPS IT'S 1GB DATA PLAN, and NOW OFFERS 2GB of DATA for LESS MONEY

Now for the details: AT&T's is canceling its 1GB data plan, which previously cost $45 per month. Why because the 2GB price is being cut to $40, yup $40 dollars. 5 dollars less than your previous 1GB plan and $15 dollars cheaper than the old 2GB plan. There is one catch, you must SWITCH to the plan 2GB of data yourself...AT&T will not automatically switch it for you. :) More data for less sounds like a deal to me.

The investment: I will be closely watching T-Mobile and AT&T stock news to see how this one will play out. Cutting costs for demanding customers like me means that they will be increasing costs somewhere else.

Personal Finance - Lowering Your Cell Phones Costs

I'm sharing this information with you "Because I'm Happy", kinda like how Pharrell Williams was after he penned his hit song.  I'm always happy about finding ways to invest and my #1 priority is helping you invest in yourself.  Some of my favorite ways of investing myself are: 1) Saving for a rainy day, 2) Investing for short/long term gains, and 3) Cutting Your Costs.

Today we are talking about cutting the cell phone costs that plague many people.  As important as your cell phone is, I tell people to try and be rationale where possible and save yourself a few bucks.  I personally do not have a $80+ dollar phone bill and as you read from my previous article I will not enter into a contract unless its on my terms. It turns out there are more people out there that are beginning to adopt this same strategy and its forced the cell phone companies to give us plans that we actually need, instead of paying for a plan I don't use.

Quick ways to save big bucks on your cell phone

1) Minutes - Go with the basic minutes plan and jump on a carrier that most of your friends and family are on. You will benefit from free mobile to mobile minutes.   

2) Text - Ease up on the one the word texts and pick up the phone and actually use those minutes every now and them. Or drop the text plan and take advantage of the many popular apps which let you text, talk or video message: "Whatsapp", "Viber", "Google Hangouts", "Blackberry IM", Apple Messenger", and "Skype" to reduce your reliance on carrier text plans. It's no secret why Whatsapp has 450 Million users worldwide.

3) Data - In as few words as possible, use WIFI. Its everywhere: Many people at work have access to WIFI, and don't forget to make a quick mental note of places like Starbucks, Staples, Home Depot, McDonalds, Jimmy Johns, and other retailers that offer you free WIFI when you are on the go.

Learn what you can live without and I've learned that WIFI is everywhere and I don't really need data. But cutting costs may also mean upgrading your plan if the price is right. If I can get a cheaper plan with unlimited minutes, text, and I can add data...then I might add something I want...but don't need. :)

Chart Courtesy of Techlicious.com:

Link to Techlicious Article: Cheapest Cell Phone Plans

Cell Phones Plans by Carrier – Prices & Data Allowances Valid as of Feb. 21, 2014

	AT&T	Verizon	Sprint	T-Mobile	MetroPCS	US Cellular	Virgin	Boost
Indv. Plan with some data	$45 300MB	$55 250MB	$55 1GB	$50 500MB***	$40 500MB	$80 300MB	$55 2.5GB***	$55** 2.5GB***
Indv. Plan with 1 GB data	$70 1GB	$80 1GB	$55 1GB	$60 2.5GB***	$50 2.5GB	$90 1GB	$55 2.5GB***	$55** 2.5BG***
Family Plan with some data (2 smartphones/ 2 feature)	$70* 300MB	$155* 250MB			$70 500MB/line	$180 300MB
Family Plan with 2GB data (2 smartphone/ 2 feature)	$105 2GB	$190 2GB			$90 2.5BG/line	$200 2GB
Family Plan with some data (4 smartphones)	$160 10GB	$175* 250MB	$160 1GB/line	$100 500MB***/line	$140 500MB/line	$200 300MB
Family Plan with 4GB data (4 smartphones	$160 10GB	$230 4GB	$160 1GB/line	$140 2.5GB***/line	$180 2.5GB/line	$230 4GB
Additional cost per month to use smartphone as a hotspot	$0 Included	$0 Included	$10 1GB	$0 Included	n/a	$0 Included	$15	$10

Note: Chart shows the least expensive plan available to meet the criteria set forth: unlimited text, unlimited calling and specified data package. Prices provided by carrier, with exception of T-Mobile and Sprint, whose most recent prices were pulled from their website February 21, 2014. Pricing based on you bringing your own device, where possible. Some carriers do not support feature phones.

2014 - Themes Shaping My Investments (pt 1)

I want to capture the themes that I believe are shaping the world in 2014 and for the foreseeable future.  Game changing events shape people first, then entrepreneurs react, and finally investment dollars follow.  This is important for many people to remember in my opinion when looking back and asking why is the world changing right before my eyes and how can I participate. I've heard the phrase when life gives you lemonade...and changed it to when you and the world are buying or using a quality product think about investing in it.  I have a good friend that constantly talks to me about Whatsapp and if anyone close to me knows Apps are not my thing but I find out they were bragging about what would be a 19 Billion Dollar company I was just being introduced to.

Theme 1: E-Commerce

I write about this theme often and the verdict is in, many people prefer the comfort of buying things online. I know I do and a number of entrepreneurs have responded to become mega online retailers for everything imaginable.  Continue to think about the ways our buying patterns change on the Internet and take advantage of the companies that will capitalize on it first OR do it better. This will be a combination of new and old companies changing the way we shop. Remember last year, there was a reason why so many packages were delayed during the Christmas holiday by UPS and that theme is the comfort of buying things online.

- Amazon, Ebay (Paypal), Yahoo, Google, Walmart, Home Depot, UPS, Fedex

Theme 2: Mobile /APPS

The mobile wars are heating up. Finally, most of the world is warming up to a concept I've been using for quite a while: "No Debt/No Contract".  The mobile companies have used contracts to their advantage for quite some time and this has led many people to enter into never ending contracts that change usually on the companies terms. My philosophy is don't sign it until to read it. If you don't like what you read...call the company and see if you can change the terms...or don't sign it. I buy my phones myself and never enter into a contract. Many people have not paid attention to the fine print so AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint have dominated the US market. The public is tired of this model and now enters T-Mobile and their "no contract" and "cheaper packages".  And now the big companies like AT&T must follow suit with lower prices or lose customers.

Then enter the world of Apps...I can't explain the love affair for all things FLAPPY but Apps are the favorite hobby of the world.  I personally don't use very many apps but I can't deny their staying power. 

- Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, Apple, Samsung, HTC, Nokia, Blackberry, Facebook, Whatsapp, Snapchat, Zynga, Candy Crush

...the remaining themes are to be continued

1st Quarter 2014: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS / 1 Free Reveal

1st Quarter 2014: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

1st Quarter 2014 Premium Stock Alerts

This quarter’s picks are late, but better late than never. I've been researching these stocks over the course of the last 3 months or more and found 3 stocks with margin of safety and the right catalysts.  Please see the following stocks that were recommended to subscribers receiving premium alerts. 

Stock #1: **********

Details 

Sector: Services Industry: Cable Systems Tip: Keep your eye on the clock.

Stock #2: **********

Details Sector: Services Industry: Specialty Retail, Other Tip: This stock was sold...to the highest bidder.

Stock #3: **********

Details 

Sector: Services 
Industry: Rental and Leasing Services
Tip: Turn up the radio while you rent this.

Profiting From Past

I know that we are well into this year already but Happy New Year!

Best and Worst of 2013

In 2013, we had a few that make the list of best and work performing stocks. In the following weeks, we will highlight in detail the lessons learned from these picks.

Best: Genworth Financial (GNW) – This stock was a top performer and bottomed out in the low single digits. It rebounded into the double digits and is still pushing higher.

Worst: Aveo Pharmaceuticals (AVEO) – This stock was a roller coaster. Up sharply on promising news of drugs that treat cancer, and then it came crashing down the when the FDA didn’t approve the drug after clinical trials.

Do We Learn from the Past

I often hear people say “We will learn from our mistakes and not repeat them”.  It is a great notion but how often does this really happen in society.  My few years as an amateur investor question how often this really happens.  I find it interesting how often technical investors look at charts and patterns because they have seen similar events in the past and look to benefit from it.  The government mainly uses models based on past events to address current markets, however; the ever revolving cycles of market excess and then subsequent crashes still continue.  You wonder why very few investors identify crashes before they occur and if we all are too happy to enjoy the good time to do “what is right” to prevent or cushion the crashes that are inevitably coming.  A few key subjects shine light on this very topic:

-          Income Equality

-          Immigration

-          Civil Rights

-          Public Schools

-          Stock Market Crashes

-          Regulation

-          Mass Shootings

-          Pollution