Expiring December Trades - Summary of Value Trades [JOE|MANU|FNF|TDOC|THS|MU]

This year was filled with many highs. The biggest is we welcome a bouncing baby boy a few months ago!! I apologize for not posting as frequently but I've been running my cyber company and we doubled our revenue last year and we are closing out this year, 3X what we did last year. 

So, I often shared my pillars with you all -- if you don't recall them -- use the search bar for the term "pillars". I've had to prioritize time for family and the business deals that bring us the most benefit. My stock portfolio has taken a back seat but that doesn't mean I do not still trade. For your reference, many of these stock trades were placed months ago, based on theme of what I think will happen OR based on companies that I think offer value (search my 50c candy bar views). See my summary below for why I made these trades and whether they panned out. 

 I'm headed to a Board meeting shortly but here are my December trades:

Summary of Trades

THE ST. JOE COMPANY (JOE)

MANCHESTER UNITED PLC (MANU)

FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. (FNF)

Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC)

TREEHOUSE FOODS, INC. (THS)

MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC. (MU)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My next post will discuss what I'm doing going into the end of the year. Stay tuned for what we call tax loss harvesting. When you've had a great year, usually with short term trades like I have it offers me a chance to get rid of some of the underperformers in my portfolio.

Margin of Safety Leads to Big Time Gains - Micron | Snap | Dave Busters | Roblox | Zoom Media

 Hello and a very happy Friday to all. It has been a busy, very busy and blessed year so far. As I mentioned in my last post, I welcome my first son and our last child to this world. So many prayers and blessings for him as he enters this amazing world. I'm watching my kids, my businesses, my friendships, and my mind grow --- and it makes me smile. My goal is to stay positive and push positivity out into the world but being that I specialize in 'risk management' I still find myself constantly trying to create moats to protect that things that are most important to me. We'll delve more into this topic into the future, but I'm curious how do you think about creating moats and protecting things you value? 

I'll take this topic of protection and spin it back to my investments. I will not lie to you 2022 -- has been a year of minimal investments on my part. The first reason is my technology business has been growing leaps and bounds so I've focused my energy here. Secondly, you'll recall that I began to get very cautious on the markets last year and into early this year. I was a bit slow but look back and read, I moved my entire retirement funds out of stocks. I'm not trying to time the market per se, but I am trying to create a moat. Game of Thrones analogy --- If you see a dragon coming, I think you should get out of the way. As some of the investors in my Mansa Musa network have mentioned and I have tried to share -- when the Federal Reserve is raising rates, you better get out of the way. Now to be transparent, my personal stock account is still active and for the most part I am completely exposed to stocks. So I've taken the SAME losses as you -- and anyone who tells you they haven't lost money is basically lying, I call CAP, as they say nowadays.

So how do I change my strategy:

1) I slow down my investing and research more (Example: If you can't pass the test of if I can $10K would I put it all in one stock -- then don't buy the stock)

2) I create a bigger moat, or cushion for loss. (Example: If I like Snap at $8 - I think $7 in this environment is better cushion

3) Don't rush to trade quickly -- Like love, there is no need to be in a hurry.

Here are my trades for October. Many of these were made months ago. The important thing to notice is I got the amount of cushion right. I'll leave you with SNAP. I bought SNAP when the stock plummeted, then is moved up nicely and now they just recently reported earning and plummeted again. The good thing was I bought in with margin of safety (i.e., moat or cushion) that allowed me to withstand all that volatility).

Finally - Don't gawk at the wins, because every trade and every month does NOT turn out like this. But the goal is to try and achieve consistency like this.

Peace and love to and more lessons to come.

#Urbanomics #getthebag #Micron #Snap #DaveandBusters #ZoomMedia #Moat #marginosaftey

What I'm Watching - Elon Musk + Twitter Acquisition

 Many that know me will attest that I'm a matter-of-fact person who is stubborn when I feel like I've done my research and feel confident about a point that I'm making. When I'm making a point, I try to come up with my thesis first and then I look for evidence supporting or denying my position. I guess this would be similar to a poker player attempting to determine what hand their opponent has prior to making a betting decision. While human nature lends me (and us all) to usually sticking to our point of view, I tend to seek out articles, videos, and also feedback from my inner circle and my Mansa Musa network to pressure test my point of view. Like traveling through a car wash, pressure testing my thoughts involves me finding viewpoints that may differ from mine and cleaning up my thesis.

Thesis on Twitter

Twitter has been one of those few "investments" you've seen me write about recently. There is nothing magical about my trade except for the fact that I believe Twitter was a valuable position once Elon declared he was interested in purchasing the company. I gained more confidence as I learned about the terms of the investment and how the requests for data were provided to Elon. 

So, let's fast forward to last week as I finally got the news I had originally expected. Last week, Elon Musk's lawyers reached out to Twitter requesting the trail be put on hold and that his investment in the company would proceed as previously communicated. In basic terms, Elon either saw or was advised that the outcome may not be leaning in his favor. I'll keep an eye on Twitter and Elon news as I look forward to Elon finalizing the acquisition. 

Full Disclosure: I own Twitter in both my personal and retirement account portfolios and picked up this position AFTER Elon discussed his interest in purchasing the company. I've traded TWTR before and those positions were small but profitable (but I'll do some research to confirm how profitable). This is a simple arbitrage play. Elon says he was going to purchase the company, so I built a small position banking on closure of this deal. 

#arbitrage #Urbanomics #Twitter #ElonMusk

The Rebirth of Slick - Baby on Board (Snowflake | Volatility)

Hello to all my Urbanomics readers out there. I have amazing news to share. My family welcomed our 4th child and I'm officially a proud father of my first baby boy!! So, it's time to celebrate life and put your priorities first. I have 4 children, 6 client engagements we currently support, 4 employees, and 3 renters that I interact with. So, I have an entire village of people that look to me for leadership and guidance -- and I take that responsibility very seriously. Every addition to my village, creates more work and stress and it's my job to remove some of that burden. I try to do that through automation (which makes certain task easier), hiring staff to take on repeatable jobs I used to manage, and sometimes flat out saying no - no more work/emails/phone calls. I had to do that the other day when a prospective business partner kept reaching out for me to provide one of my cybersecurity consultants for their project. I don't mind helping but when you call 3x in 30 minutes you are bordering on being annoying and disrespectful and I shared this feedback with that person. 

So, a key Urbanomics lesson I wanted to share is create a plan this will ensure that you move towards a common goal. I have a 60+ point task list that I have my staff check daily to ensure we are taking care of our responsibilities. We must complete timesheets, bill invoices (Accounts Receivable), pay vendors and bills (Accounts Payable), purchase office supplies, execute payroll, and the way I ensure things don't slip through the cracks is by planning. We plan ahead and measure our progress against those plans and milestones. But remember, life will throw you curve balls, and you must hang tight and adjust your plans when needed. 

When it comes to the markets, I still see an economy that's peaked and starting to slow. While I keep getting requests for more jobs, I have to be careful in extrapolating my view into thinking it matches everyone else's view. For example, just because I'm seeing growth in the cybersecurity compliance sector, the layoff stories and reports of slowdowns (did you hear the FedEx CEO on a looming recession??) may be telling a bigger story to come in a year or so. I anticipated the stock market still dropping so you'll recall I moved my retirement funds to cash towards the end of 2021. You've heard me writing about optionality -- and I love taking my ball and leaving. I don't mind throwing the middle finger up and saying I'm gone. Why? Because I like playing games that I can win --- games on my terms and right now the market is a rough game. Just like the real estate market, I'll wait you out.

See these trades I've made recently: short term small hits are what I'm trying to execute on. I executed these trades awhile back and haven't been active. Read a recent post and you'll see my investment themes:

I like beaten down TECH and Volatility as pain is ahead. And I don't just share my wins, I was playing Energy and got a little bit loose with a naked trade I was forced to close in Devon Energy.

Stay balanced, celebrate the wins, learn from your losses. Sending love to all. Peace out:

Recent Trading Wins: 

Snowflake (Theme: Beaten Down Tech)

VIXY (Theme: Volatility Trade)

Redball (Theme: Hedge against my SPAC investment, this will turn into a small gain of roughly $200)

Recent Trading Loss:

Devon Energy - I was playing loose and trading naked. I traded more shares than I owned. When Devon Energy popped the other day, I was forced to sell my position at a loss. Sorry Warren I got greedy and I own this mistake. But also I close my losses and move on.

Inflation | Stagflation | Recession - Either Way Here's How I'm Trading

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

ALL EYEZ ON ME

With a backdrop of rising inflation, down markets, and lots of chatter about recession, here is what I have been trading. First, I have NOT been doing much trading at all. When the market is choppy, treat it like high waves on the beach -- DO NOT GET IN.

I exited a number of traded and YES many of them were performing poorly and trading at a loss. As the song goes, you have to know when to fold them and take your lumps. I recall many years ago I forced myself to learn how to play poker. I hate the thought of putting up money and more importantly losing it, but poker teaches you risk management (how good is your hand), how much to invest (in poker this is your bet), and last but not least how to read a room (in poker this is anticipating your opponent's hand). 

In this market, I had to get back to basics and start playing poker. 

Risk Management -- I sold my "No Scrubs" stocks. They were broke azz stock not doing much for me or I didn't think they had an opportunity to go much higher. Clearly the market's mood (called sentiment) has changed and it's a risky environment.

How to Invest -- I went Coke Zero, Crystal Light, and Michelob Ultra, I started cutting back the sizes of my trades. I can't afford to make big mistakes in a down trending market with talks of recessions every day.

Read The Room -- People are driving less, spending less, and homes are actually staying on the market for a few days. 

So in response, I've been trading stocks that fall into the following categories:

PAIN TRADE - When something hurts, I buy it. I own a Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle and work from home. So I don't even know what the price of gas is and I make a trip to the gas pump about once every 2 months I would say. But I know you're hurting, so I buy the industry that's applying the pain. Oil and Gas stocks are bursting at the seams with cash, and even my old buddy Warren Buffett is in on the act with his investment in Occidental Petroleum. I personally think he wants to buy the entire company...let's wait and see.

OUTSIDERS - I've been an underdog all my life, so I appreciate when high a stock has been kicked down so good, that there still is an opportunity to get up. I've recently traded Snap, Snowflake, Roblox, Teladoc, Zoom, and Coinbase to name a few, for just this reason. They don't align with my goals, but for now I look for underdog prices in a difficult market.

ARB - Short for arbitrage, Twitter and Activision are places where I've stuck money in hopes of the companies getting bought out. A company slid into their DMs and presented them with a ring -- and I hope they get to the alter. There are many risks with this strategy and Elon Musk dissing Twitter and Microsoft needing to get regulatory approval to buy Activision will be no easy path.

Tegna - Is my version of a investor's lotter pick. I bought a large number of shares back in 2019 around the $15 dollar range. I believe media would see it's day again due to the presidential showdown. Tegna has paid off and they too have a company that slid into their DMs.  I hope they get bought out at $24 dollars but risk is on the table. Media unions have come out strongly and made their opinions heard. They are concerned the merger means loss of jobs. I am torn here, I think have these people forgotten we live in a capitalist society. I actually lean towards their perspective and being a person of color, people that look like me are often the first to be let go at many companies. But then I wonder why support for programs and industry groups that support empowering workers is so low? I guess many don't care UNTIL it impacts them. Tegna's CEO has come out and indicated no jobs would be lost as she is a veteran of the media industry and values local media. I don't know what will happen here but as the stock inches up -- my knowledge of Wall Street tells me the deal gets done and someone does a lot of government lip service that stringent due diligence was done. Either way, I think this remains a strong lottery pick because if you look back at my blog, Tenga at one point had 4 suitors. This is a company that will be bought my someone and I just hope it's a happy marriage.

Stock Ticker Stock Name Industry Target Price REASONS

CVX CHEVRON OIL & GAS $152.50 PAIN TRADE

DVN DEVON ENERGY OIL & GAS $60.00 PAIN TRADE

OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM OIL & GAS $60.00 PAIN TRADE

SNAP SNAP COMMUNICATION SERVICES $7.00 OUTSIDERS

BYND BEYOND MEAT CONSUMER RELATED $30.00 GOOD NEWS

TWTR TWITTER COMMUNICATION SERVICES $50.00 ARB

SNOW SNOWFLAKE TECHNOLOGY $120.00 OUTSIDERS

RBLX ROBLOX VIDEO GAMES $25.00 OUTSIDERS

TGNA TEGNA MEDIA $20.00 LOTTERY PICK

COIN COINBASE TECHNOLOGY $40.00 OUTSIDERS

TDOC TELADOC HEALTHCARE $25.00 OUTSIDERS

ZM ZOOM TECHNOLOGY $85.00 OUTSIDERS

ACTVI ACTIVISION VIDEO GAMES $75.00 ARB

Chess Moves - Celebrating Mellody Hobson Sports Ownership | 76ers Ownership Opportunity?

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self-taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

Mellody Hobson - African-American | Woman | Sports Owner

I have a favorite saying when I do business presentations. I tell anyone I'm mentoring, don't focus on the hype...PAY ATTENTION TO OWNERSHIP. I follow up with an example, you and I love LeBron James and admire his wealth...BUT someone is cutting him a paycheck. He has a boss and you should know who that person is. Aim to be a boss, aim to be an owner. You've seen from my Mansa Musa network of friends; I like to metaphorically rub elbows and build an eclectic network of business mentors by researching and learning from some of the best in business, academics, and philanthropy. I've often written about John Rogers, an African American businessman out of Chicago who built Ariel Investments and an Ariel charter school just blocks away from my home on the South Side of Chicago. I learned very early about a rising star named Mellody Hobson by following John Rogers. Mellody is a co-CEO of Ariel Investments and the chairwoman of the board of directors at Starbucks. Notice, I did not start by saying she is the wife of George Lucas (yes that famous director) because she's carved a lane for herself that is quite impressive. Clearly Mellody is not done yet and was recently announced as a minority owner of the sports franchise, Denver Broncos. 

Photo Courtesy of Broncoswire, USA Today

Philadephia 76ers Ownership (for Sale) 

It's no secret Michael Rubin, who I listen to whenever he is on CNBC is on in my Mansa Musa Network. I joke that he and Mark Cuban are like big kids living our every young man's dream. Billionaire from their sports business activities and then they became majority or minority owners in sports franchises. Well my boy Michael Rubin is selling his stake in the 76ers as it conflicts with his Fanatics business which recently got into the sports card business after its purchase of Topps. Once I heard this, I rattled off a list of names who should invest in this AMAZING opportunity. I'm on record that Michael Rubin may put in a good word for his friends who could band together to purchase his 10% stake. 

Screenshot of Michael Rubin's Instragram

In my opinion, here's who I could see that might be a part of this list:

• Kevin Hart - Philly native 
• Meek Mill - good friend to Michael Rubin
• Robert Kraft - billionaire owner of the New England Patriots
• Jay Z - partnered with Michael Rubin and Meek Mill on criminal Justice reform
• Lil Baby - new buddy of Rubin and Rubin acknowledged Lil Baby contacts him for investment advice

Then I saw a post from Rick Ross. I've written a few posts about how I love how Rozay is moving across his investments. He's on offense and says he would be interested in that 10% stake. I love it, minority ownership, minority excellence. #bossmoves

Why are We Seeing High Inflation? -- The Block is Hot

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Inflation is Coming, No Inflation is Here:

I have never really looked back over time to understand when and why I post. I have a feeling it probably aligns over time with when our economy is at its highest and lowest. I've come to conclude that if I put my thoughts in writing and it has a historical time stamp on it, then eventually over time I can change minds (by looking at my past thoughts). I have molded myself over time to being a contrarian...and this means I appreciate going against the grain. I don't try to follow the crowd. The crowd is like a herd and in fact where and when I see a stampede I run away. 

I believe this is how I see risk, protect myself from negative risk, and then eventually use leverage to capitalize on risk. I take these life lessons and simply apply them to the stock market. I try to create habits and repeatable practices that can be applied to the game of life and carry these concepts over to the stock market game. Notice, I purposefully called them a game. There is an ebb and flow to everything in my opinion and you have to know how the game is played. I take time to find, learn, and observe this lifecycle in everything. Whether it's the game of life, the stock market game, sports, or our economy you will notice they all have cycles. Why this repeats OR cycles like a clock is unbeknownst to me, but I'd be a liar in telling you that understanding this concept has made me successful.

I clearly am a broken record because over the years, I've posted about how the economy roughly goes up and down in cycles. From observing the stock market, I can tell you LIKE CLOCKWORK, we roughly have periods of boom and busts that cycle OR repeat every 8-10 years. Read my blog and I think I've thoughtfully documented the following:

• 1987 - Savings and Loan Crisis | Black Monday Crisis - The stock market (via the Dow) was down 22% in one day
• 1995 - 2000 Dot Com Stock Market Soars - It gave us Amazon, Semiconductor Stocks
• 2002 - Dot Com Bubble Busts - Every business added a Dot Com and many did not survive
• 2004 - 2007 - The Hot Housing Markets Soars - Homes prices and buying skyrocket, and no interest loans become the norm
• 2008 - Financial Crisis - We lose Lehman Brothers and financial markets are in turmoil; I used this downturn to finally purchase my first house in 2010 thanks to the First Time Homebuyers credit led by the Obama administration; I also started buy stocks again when the Federal Reserve started lowering interest rates
• 2014 -18 - I wrote in 2014, that the Dow should take a bow. It reached all-time highs. I was starting to plan for a slowdown but then President Trump surprised me and many in 2016 by vocally telling the Federal Reserve NOT to raise interest rates (which slows the economy down) and he doubled down on cutting business taxes which created a Trump era boom after we already had a Obama era boom. Remember unemployment and minority unemployment were at record lows during the Obama presidency and then the set new record lows during the Trump presidency
• 2019 - COVID-19 Crisis led a to a health crisis, stock market meltdown and the entire globe was under siege
• 2020 - COVID Stimulus + Payment Protection Program + Child Tax Credits - because the Federal Reserve could not lower interest rates as they were at 0%, Congress stepped in literally made it rain. 

If you look at this historical backdrop that I documented, the Federal Reserve talked about raising interest rates in 2016 as the economy was doing great 8 years after the financial crisis. But when then President Trump vocally broke the separation of powers and vocally told the Federal Reserve in as many words to not raise interest rates...I believe it led to 2 things:

1) Our economy never really cooled down from 8 years of doing well and started to get hot. I remember in my 2017-18 search for my second home getting outbid and racing to find the next house. Only come to find out this would get even worse in 2020.

2) When COVID-19 hit and shocked our economy we could not lower interest rates. By creating all those stimulus programs and most being for businesses who did not have to pay them back, the US economy was flooded with cash. This is equivalent to pouring gasoline on an already white hot fire.

The gasoline lead to something similar to the Dot Com Bubble, only this time you might call it the Cryptocurrency and Housing rise. Don't believe just look at the headlines:

1. Gamestop, AMC Theatres, and Crypto ruled the day. haha Gamestop and AMC were virtually closed during the pandemic and they are skyrocketing more than our most valuable companies in the world. Crypto which is backed by nothing and can't be used to pay for toilet paper and groceries is now one of the most valuable currencies in the world? Notice what bubbles and inflation begins to do. It makes the unreal -- real, the unfathomable -- possible, the unrationale -- rational. 
2. The 10 richest persons in the world are worth more than 40% of the bottom 40% of the world, which is roughly 3.1 Billion people. 
3. 88 bids were made on one home; 25% of homes in the US were bought by corporations

Pouring gasoline on a white-hot economy did not cause these strange investment scenarios or market inequities...it exacerbated and amplified them. We are now at a point where the only tool we have to slow things down is the Federal Reserve. They pour water on the fire by raising interest rates and this doesn't cause slow burn rather a cold shock. For the last 5 weeks the markets have dropped sharply, convulsing their way down. Interest rates have jumped from 3% to 5%. So I started to dip my toes back into the real estate market to see if I could take advantage of the situation. Nope, the open house I went to was visited by other and I was greeted by the agent telling me this house was already under contract. This tells me the market is still to hot. To change habits, the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates until it makes you feel sick. 

Crypto hit all-time highs of $60K and now its below $30K

ROKU was at $400 at one point, now decimated to $below $100

 The goal is to raise rates to stop your buying of homes, stocks, crypto which is fueling inflation. 

This is why I moved my retirement funds to inflation - protected investments last year in anticipation. This is also why I'm disappointed in myself when I didn't sell Spotify and ROKU at their highs. I saw it coming and didn't do enough. These stocks have been decimated and are down big time. The funniest is the Federal Reserve told you this is exactly what they wanted to do.

The Stock Market is Falling - Will I Be Gone 'til November??

Every time I make a run

Girl, you turn around and cry

I ask myself why, oh why

See, you must understand, I can't work a 9 to 5

So I'll be gone 'til November

Said I'll be gone 'til November, I'll be gone 'til November

Yo, tell my girl, yo, I'll be gone 'til November

I'll be gone 'til November, I'll be gone 'til November

Yo, tell my girl, yo, I'll be gone 'til November

January, February, March, April, May

I see you cryin', but girl, I can't stay

I'll be gone 'til November, I'll be gone 'til November

And give a kiss to my mother

Lyrics by Wyclef Jean

Gone 'til November

Many investors are finally learning that stock markets do not go straight up. I've blogged that when the market was at its hottest, I was getting calls and text messages all day. Everyone was right and every stock they bought went straight up. I just hope that you took some of those profits off the table. Remember, we are building wealth and for some of us generational wealth for the first time and our goal is not to gamble. I learned the hard way many years ago that big gains should be pocketed or banked when you can and I use a crude but simple formula for selling some shares. If I've purchased a stock and it's gone up well, what's wrong with taking my initial investment OUT, then taking another 20% out, and finally letting the rest ride. Example:

Investment: $10,000

Say this Investment Goes up to 30% and you have $13,000 in your account

Sell $12,000 ($10K Initial Investment and $2K Profit Banked)

$1,000 - Let it Ride

I appreciate the calls when you get it right but I also want to hear about how you stacked your chips at the top. 

How did this work out for me? Well, I had help last year and a little bit of luck this year. Some of my largest positions were bought out. Again, a stock getting bought out is like a sports player getting a maximum salary offer from their team or being traded in free agency for a higher salary! So for me, I was luckily able to bank most of my gains. I somewhat listened to my own book because if you recall from a recent article, I showed some discipline and in October 2021 I moved 75% of my retirement account into safety. A few months ago, I moved the remaining 25% to safety as well. I know you want to know exactly what I moved them into. Well I surprisingly found out I have an Inflation Protection investment in my retirement account. If you're wondering whether this helped or hurt, it turns out that from the highs of Q3 2021, my stock portfolio was down roughly 10%...not great but less than what the market fell. That is about as much as I can ask for. In my personal portfolio, I learned that it was built in a barbell fashion and this was great when I wanted to take risk and not so great when the market turned down. I basically had half of my portfolio in what you may call value based safer stocks and roughly the other half were in the high flyer technology stocks.

Positive Positions:

Tegna - is being bought out so even while the market is down this position has not moved materially and should not until the acquisition is made in Q2 2022. I've actually played the ARBITRAGE and added to this position in a down market. This means I buy the stock as there is still a difference between the current price and the acquisition price. I monitor this stock closely but my last update was 87% of the shareholders just approved the merger so I think investment which I own in my personal and retirement account has a high likelihood of closing. 

Negative Positions:

ROKU - I'm glad I traded options against Roku because it was a very hot high flyer and as it went higher I made income trading against my position. Now as the market has dropped, that income trading is all I have to show for it, because Roku has fallen big time. 

Spotify - Spotify has fallen as well and the losses have been big.

When times get tough, I begin to move back to the basics. I look for trends that should work during these times and in my riskier personal portfolio this is where I consider buying stocks. Sometimes I simply do nothing at all. But here is what I'm doing:

1) Watching Warren Buffett - When the market is falling and people are scared, he has been cautious and now entering back in. But what is he buying or adding too, see this summary below:

a) I find it interesting; he is jumping into Paramount a stock I recently indicated had jumped on my radar because it was trading at a discount: Feb 2022 - Paramount Post

b) My Breakdown of Warren's Q1 Buys / Additions:

2) I am trading aggressively and trying to actively get out of any stocks that will not make up a core part of my portfolio. 

3) I've been more active than I've been in a long time. I've been trading:

Oil: Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy

Arbitrage Plays: Twitter

Stocks that Benefit from Hard Times: Treehouse (maker of store brand products)

I copied Buffett and targeted Oil plays and want to build larger positions here as a hedge and I see he copied me by focusing on Arbitrage plays. I continue to buy Tegna until they get bought out and even purchased Twitter which hope Elon Musk will stop his shenanigans and agree to the original buyout of roughly $54. But is looking at Activision Blizzard, the video game maker, because he too is trying to identify high probability trades that will likely get bought out. I don't want high risk trades at this point and this could be why we both are looking at Arb plays. VMware may be one here shortly as Broadcom has been supposedly slidin' into it's DM and there are a few others bubbling out there.

I've spent way too much time on this post and have to get back at it, but a quick brain dump of what I'm thinking at the moment. Enjoy, trade safely, and #getthebag

Who's Watching Euphoria - I'm Seeing a Stock Market in Withdrawal

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self-taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

Stock "Euphoria" In Withdrawal

Did you see that episode of Euphoria? While I'm watching the show, I'm really watching the stock market euphoria evaporate. I want to be completely transparent that if your portfolio is NOT down and you are not feeling any pain then you are lying or you need to win stock investing award. One of my first rules is being transparent and my portfolio is down and guess what that is a normal part of the stock market. I'd like to take some credit that I've been calling for the market to top out for a while now. But the reality is even though I was right, no human being will ever get the exact day correct, so my portfolio is getting punished just like everyone else's. Like Rue Bennett on the show "Eurphoria" is in withdrawal, this market is shaking...we call it market volatility. 

You may wonder what I'm doing in response. The simple answer is I've moved out of stocks in my retirement portfolio. You can call cap (or my bluff) but I too was surprised that I made the decision to move one quarter of my retirement portfolio in October of 2021 to safety. I chose the PIMCO Inflation Protected Bond Fund. One quarter did not stop my portfolio from declining but what it did mean that I declined less than the what the market did and I calculated my retirement account was down from it's peak by roughly 10%. I like to periodically review my portfolio's quarterly and just logged in last month. The next thing I did was analyze the current situation. I think the economy is doing well despite what you see on the news. It's pretty hot and INFLATION is up big time. How do I know, because I want to buy a 3rd property and I no likey any of the prices I'm seeing. The only price I like is the inflated value I see on the properties I own. Funny how that works ehh. 

Why is this happening? Well, the Federal Reserve is committed to taming inflation and the only way to do this is to slow demand. Take your Starbucks coffee shop, if they keep selling out of everything the store will eventually conclude they may need to raise prices because the demand is so hot. A good business operation will raise prices until the demand slows down to something manageable. That is EXACTLY what the Federal Reserve is doing at the moment. They are raising interest rates and that is making mortgage rates and the cost of obtaining cash harder to come by. The goal is to SLOW down the economy as everyone is flush from stimulus and spending like crazy now that the think COVID is over. If you need a visual, think about Rue as she was going through withdrawal, it's NOT a pretty picture. So guess what, I'm taking my ball and going home. In my retirement account I put all of my cash into inflation protected investments for the mean time. I like to play games I can win. My personal stock investing account is still in stocks and it's not pretty. I still have a lot to learn about how to better hedge my investments as some of my high fliers came down to reality. ROKU, SPOTIFY, and UBER really don't want me to retire even earlier. Those #$#$#!!

I'll write more about what I'm doing in my personal stock account to try to reduce the amount of risk and volatility. My cybersecurity business is holding up well so I'm fully investing my time there but I'll keep you guys posted on how to continue investing in stocks for a brighter future.

In Da Club - My 50c Watch | ViacomCBS Paramount

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self-taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

ViacomCBS (Now Paramount)

Yeah buddy, you can find me in the club bottle full of bub. haha let me stop before I get hype.

Go shorty it's your birthday because my In Da Club picks are stocks that I consider in VALUE territory. They got beat down, like they stole something and now for me I think it's a bargain. You say Fiddy performing at the Superbowl and representing for the culture. Here is my VALUE pick:

ViacomCBS - I've owned it before and still like it. They have 4 of the hottest shows (Yellowstone being one) as they finally have their streaming service taking off. I'm busy managing clients but I shall return with more feedback. Price matters and I think they are on sale after they got beat down after their latest earning report (think this is a quarterly health check for corporations). 

I bought in this range about 2 years ago and rode it up into the 70s and sold in my retirement account. I was NOT so lucky in my personal account. I believe I still own this. For me, when stocks get this low, I turn on DRIP. Haha not that swag that you're thinking about DRIP is Dividend Reinvestment Programs which allow you to take your dividends (think quarterly stimulus checks from companies) and have my broker automatically buy more. If the stock doesn't offer dividends...then you hit that Juvie or for my non Hip Hop heads Juvenile and back that thing up and buy the stock or more stock.

I'm out handling my cyber clients. Be well.

#value   #backthatstockup  #ViacomCBS   #Paramount   #InDaClub  #50cWatch

Validity...Put In Work | Peloton Value Trade

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self-taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

Validity - Put that Work In

They wanna know what I gain by showing my people how to Invest, I say, "Validity"

They askin' "What work you put in young brotha?", I'm like, "What didn't we?"

For years now, I have spoken about playing the long game. I try to educate folks that being unbalanced, greedy, and thinking short-term thinking is screwing up the world. It's funny, corporations are measured on a quarterly basis (remember health check). This short-term focus on immediate financial gratification is why Peloton can be worth $150 dollars a share a year ago and now worth $20 - $30 dollars a share today. The economics didn't change, and I questioned the stock from the beginning with my inner circle, my Mansa Musa Network. I'm doing very well in life, and I wouldn't purchase a Peloton bike with yo money. I purchased a used Sole elliptical many years back and that machine is built to last. First lesson -- I purchased it used. Why? Because we all know around January and February, everyone set goals to get physically fit then a few months later human nature sets in, and many abandon those goals. Too many of us are scared to put that work in. Being a value investor, I come in and simply find someone selling and play let's make a deal. You're using it as a coat hanger, now I might too, but for one tenth of the cost you paid for it it's worth the risk. However, I'm going push myself to set goals, track them, and put that work in.

Short-term thinking is hurting people and the world as we are addicted to social media. I jumped off social media a few years ago because the feeling I got reminded me of gambling. I felt good when I got likes and you curate what you share only to get likes. I got nervous I didn't like enough people's stuff. Would someone be mad if I didn't like their photos? I'm busy, and people have liked my posts...I need to go and like theirs in return. I read young kids are scared to go on vacation and often hand their accounts over to friends to KEEP UP the likes on their pages. I see suicide rates hitting closer to home and as a world many of us are not happier inside. I remind you don't be short termed in your thinking, play the long game. Since the age of 18, I literally took a trip every year to view the work and enjoy life. That slowed for me only in the last few years. What changed, family dynamics but mainly COVID. I want to get back out there but for my family and my goals I'm playing the long game...to be here for a while, God willing.

A reminder to put that work in like we are doing here.

Work Hard - Do something that brings value, and someone will pay you for your services

Stretch your World - Explore books, the world, and be intellectually curious. Don't believe the hype on social media or just your block. 

Play the Long Game - Stay healthy, make long term investments in yourself and others

Believe in Something - To stay balanced you must believe in something...you will be tested. Are you ready

I've started off 2022, how 2021 ended and everything is clicking. My work is keeping me busy, my investments in real estate and stocks are performing well. I changed my business structure to an S Corp and now employ 3 full time people. I hope to add 3 more by the end of the year. I set goals and my mission is to know them the f&ck down. Why because I was just supposed to be an athlete, a statistic, and it's my job to change that view and uplift those who need my help.  Don't believe me...just watch.

Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON Update

Just about a week ago I said the following:

I think Peloton is starting to shape up the same way my Sprint trade did. This stock was once as high as $150 just a year ago. To me, Peloton is just a bike but the stock skyrocketed once it came public. It has fallen from grace to a low of $22 dollars. Like the winter olympics, you don't want a stock chart that is sloping downhill...not good.

Rumor has it companies may be sliding into their DM trying to hookup. I bought some Peloton today because it reminds me of whenever I find Reese's cups for $50c. Usually, it's a time to load up because I just don't see if often. With Peloton, I still struggle with the need for an overpriced exercise bike. I will probably need to interview some actual users to fully understand all the benefits, but I said the same thing about the Apple iPhone and many people are happy with paying for an overpriced phone. I think there is definitely a market for the "connected" use of the bike but clearly, I didn't agree with the price of the stock. I finally feel somewhat vindicated, now that the stock has cratered but it took a while to get here. Long story short, is I can see clearly now the rain is gone. And I think Pelton is worth some risk if Amazon, Apple or other suitors wanna hookup.

Here is where the stock traded in my last post:

Here is where they are trading a week later:

At a high of $39.62 just this week many of us would be up somewhere between $800-$1000 bucks only if you bought 100 shares. Then scale your business and goals. What if you bought more...you do the math? Don't be short term in your thinking...right now everyone is thinking about just a hustle a quick buck. Join our movement because it's built to last. Don't hype drug money and guns that are tearing communities down, focus on sustainable living, wealth creation, education, and leaving something for the next generation.