How Netflix Shows Help Me Invest - Mindhunter | Black Mirror | Beats

 

Mindhunter - This show is about the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and how they first formed the Behavioral Science Unit. Simply put, this is the unit that came up with a methodology for investigating the murders that most local police forces couldn't solve. They coined the phrase "serial killer' and how to profile people. Oddly enough, maybe we do operate in "patterns" and when you consider history...it can often be used to solve the most complex murders. The irony in the show is how often people "back then" said this type of thing doesn't happen around here. I guess when it comes to investing, I try to create a profile of the economy. I ask myself what events and triggers are likely to occur because of my profile analysis. I do lots of research, as history tends to tell a story that often and sometimes unfortunately repeats itself. Finally, I look back in time for patterns. Patterns, especially those found in charts historically help me find great entry points to plant seeds --- or invest in companies.  

The simple mind easily complains about the athlete on TV who grinds through a physical game and calls them spoiled brats...the mindhunter wonders who pays all the salaries of the athletes on a team and how can he/she afford that payroll.  Makes you ponder -- if a particular league is 75% one race --- should coaches and executive management look more like the end product.  I guess they've never heard of no taxation without representation. 

More to come from me on Ice Cube's Contract with Black America. Just imagine if the decision - makers (Congress) had a guide to some of the items that could improve life for African Americans. Decent thought Cube, but bend your mind further --- why doesn't Congress simply reflect the represent 15% of the population that African Americans represent. No taxation without real representation. 

In The Dark - This show gets a thumbs up from me. I like the premise of the lead character being a blind person who has a messy life. We all do, so it's refreshing that they add layers of complexity to this show. It even turns the table on of the white savior complex as a black person actually is capable of helping the damsel in distress. While this theme is short-lived,  they go back to a white person saving the day but they tried. I cite this movie, because eventually as a society we are SLOWLY moving away from fake narratives and getting more real. Black people can help and save white people too. The cute white girl that's blind can have a life full of messy complex vices. This is REAL. Just like it's real when states are struggling to make ends meet. It again doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize they will have to find creative ways to balance their budgets. Hence my mindhunter investments into stocks like: Ceasars, Draftkings, and other gaming stocks. Just image that, the culture that holds puritan values so high needs gaming to save the day. It's just reality. When I travel to the United Kingdom, sports betting is prevalent on every corner. I can walk into a store that looks a lot like how a cell phone store is constructed here in the US. Instead of buying an I-Phone you can place a bet. Makes you wonder who is actually "In The Dark". 

Dark - After Black Mirror, the show "Dark" was easily next favorite series to watch. I couldn't spoil this show for you even if I tried. It's a German series that attempts to discuss how life is connected in more ways that we can imagine. I like the premise because as humans we attempt to dumb down life by only talking about the duality of life. What does this mean --- well have you ever heard someone describe things as simply black or white...good versus bad/evil?? This shows turns that concept on its head and blows up the duality narrative of life. We all know the concept is BS but we go along for the ride at every step of the way. What explains gay marriage, legalized drugs and gambling, priests who abuse their power, white supremacists', and so many other complex subjects. Boardwalk Empire shows us that will enough $$$ the prohibition of alcohol can be done away. The three-fifths clause in the constitution shows you how dark the human mind can delve to justify a means to an end. I am pro-business but I also recognize that business invest in the areas that need transformation --- in government we call this entitlements. I believe in social values so why don't we pay government workers private sector rates so that they can put food on the table and fund their own retirements and even possibly rid the system of pensions (or contractual obligations) that now many want to backtrack on and not pay? Why is this all so DARK, maybe because we try to simplify this into a dual world - good vs bad and black vs white...and it ain't that simple.

Black Mirror - Black Mirror is hands down my favorite show and describes my persona to a "T". I couldn't understand why so many don't see the harm of social media like I clearly see it. I've only had "that feeling" I get when I log into Facebook one other time and that's when I played a slot machine in Vegas. I've only done it once and it was crazy how it made me feel. I almost lost my entire $40 dollars and was prepared to go against my principle of adding more $$$ when I hit it $400 large. Then stupidly I thought well maybe I could do it again. I probably gave another $60 dollars back and decided. Enough was enough...I pulled the plugged. That dopamine effect was a feeling I've never felt before until I logged onto Facebook. The need for likes, the need to only post my travels, night outs, and big purchases. Then I decided 5+ years ago, this is overrated. So I don't log on and when I do, you get the good, bad and ugly of my life. I remind people, if someone is giving you anything for free in life --- YOU are the product. 

Beats - Finally, I wanted to highlight the movie Beats. This movie is about making it out of your environment and overcoming adversity. I don't always like the background of the need for music to black people's away out --- but music is in our DNA whether you are African, Jamaican, or African-American. I remind people to expect the road to be hard. The biggest thing I tell people to do nowadays is learn how to be independent. Find a service, skill, product that people need and be supply them with that legally. Negotiate your own terms and sleep better at night because I have no one to blame but me. More to come but I signed by first major business contract just a few months ago. I saw the tactics used against me were signs of systemic oppression because I became woke to how people were making money off of me the "talent". I appreciate the introduction, but why do you get paid tens of thousands of dollars when I'm the consultant and doing the actual work. I will tell you about this journey soon and how I am hiring people of color in an IT landscape that screams for diversity.

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My job is to help the largest corporations in the world to simplify their most complex and riskiest businesses. So I do that for people here when it comes to the economic engine of the world. It's a machine that has patterns. People at as if the world operates in a black and white manner but it simply does not. Right now its simple, the US government has printed 13 Trillion dollars. Most of that has gone to companies. Those companies are skyrocketing as their stocks are going through the roof. Roku is up so much that I am simply making trades each week that will make money betting the impossible will not happen. For example, Roku will NOT increase 30% in one week and if does not, please cut me a check. I usually execute these trade when I am supposed to be most scared --- when Roku reached its all-time high of $239 just in the last week. They want me to be scared to put the trade on but I'm not. I simply do it for the culture -- we can be talk about how wrong the system is or we can Robin Hood it and help our folks. I don't see them listening and trust me a system this rigged ain't changing anytime soon. Here is me slamming Roku. I trust you can do math on my gains. Any trades highlighted in Green means I only held the trade for 7 day, IMO a week. Not bad for a guy with a 9-5 and a side hustle.

Note: I'm masking my trades as I hope to dust off an alert service startup company I had dreams of running over 10 years ago. For almost a year, I've been literally an open book in hopes of teaching and showing people a different way. I'm not here to motivate, just to plant seeds. If we plant enough seeds, change gon' come. 

What Coronavirus Risk --- The Markets Have Roared Back

What Coronavirus Risk --- The Markets Have Roared Back

First I want to say WOW, the markets have bounced back in a loud way. Louder than my Cross Colours 👚clothes back in the 90s. I have been on a number of enlightening calls in the last few weeks to gauge the pulse of the us --- the people --- the consumers. I keep my ears to the streets to see what real people are doing and if it’s in line with what I hear in the news --- I do this because I am wary of Headline Risk. One hot topic is Real Estate and I’ve been very surprised to hear what people are doing in this space. Of course job security has been a frequent discussion as well. For example, bankruptcies are occurring as companies navigate the crisis. And stimulus oh my – it seems that the Federal Reserve and Congress have somewhat been on the same page and don’t care about debt, inflation, or the next generation because they have pumped a record 4 Trillion Dollars into the economy. It’s much harder to invest during a crisis because there is so much news and information flowing -- Headline Risk. The amount of texts I get and send about breaking news and events is way up. So I usually like to keep things simple and you got a glimpse of that last month:

Contagious Health Pandemic à BAD 👎

Administration Response to Pandemic à BAD + SLOW👎👎

Stimulus from Fed Reserve + Congress à Very Good (Rollout of Stimulus Checks – slow; PPP – well let’s just say the LA Lakers, a Billionaire’s holding company, and a rich Florida Homeowner’s association all got a $$Million$$ dollar checks before small businesses on main street did. Changing from Very Good to Good 👍👍

News of Re-openings à Risky (Again unorganized but I understand the need to get people back to work) 😬

News of Treatments à Very Positive as I wrote about Gilead and Remdesivir very early on 👍

News of Vaccines  à Nothings seems imminent until 2021 w/ one big exception the Oxford vaccine out of London I believe could be promising as they were already working on a coronavirus vaccine and are using those building blocks to fight COVID-19. 👎

You do the math from what I’ve listed out and you’ll see why I split my investment strategy.  Without a vaccine, a contagious health pandemic is very dangerous and now cities have run the numbers and can’t stomach the shut-downs any longer…even if it means deaths tick up higher.  But 4 Trillion of Stimulus will make some of us temporarily forget we are in a crisis – but will everyone get a piece of this helicopter money strategy.  So my calculation is this:

• I need my retirement income protected – Retirement Funds out of the market ✅
• I need some exposure to Stimulus induced rally – Personal Investment Account (very active and I’m looking for big gains and possible exits) - Teladoc, Uber, Match, Roku, Gold ✅✅
• I need to cut costs and stockpile cash – Refinance, apply for stimulus funds, cut costs in my family budget ✅ (Comcast and Insurance cos I still owe you a call)

Headlines Versus Real Life

Headline -- Mortgage rates near record lows — and green shoots emerges as Americans prep a move back into home-buying

Real-Life – In the last few weeks, I’ve heard people are putting in offers, closing, and trying to move from being renters to owners. If the price is right, go for it because rates are low. Still a little surprised at the pent up demand here.

Headline – Banks are requiring HIGHER down payments (often 20%) and higher credit scores; JP Morgan and Wells Fargo have stopped Cash Out Refinances / HELOCs

Real-Life – Back in March, I told you to refinance and get cheap cash while you can. The Banks are sleepy and slow but are they are finally tightening the screws. I know of a Cash-Out Refinance recently closed and I got instructions to lock my regular refinance rate a few weeks back. Normal refi’s will still be occurring but look for more scrutiny because of the jobs landscape due to COVID-19.  As far as Cash-Out Refis, if you were slow this source of cheap cash may be narrowing.  

Headline -- Mortgage forbearance (program allowing people to NOT pay mortgage) has ballooned up to 4.1 million borrowers/ Over 7.5% of home loans

Real-Life – I have heard real stories of mid to large sized landlords saying their tenants have lost their jobs and their rental income is impacted. Do you fault the tenants for not diversifying their tenants or simply forgive tenants and renters because this is an act of God. What about this -- how long will eviction moratoriums be in place by cities AND will people pay – back rent and back loans may be too much for people to pay plus their normal rent when the economy picks up. This is the area that concerns me the most especially since I’m hearing of people buying homes NOW. Is this the tale of the halves and have nots or are people a little too early into a looming crisis?

Headline -- In roughly 6 weeks, unemployment claims have jumped to 30 Million people and projections of roughly 47 Million are being forecasted as the peak (by the Federal Reserve St. Louis)

Real-Life – Over the past few weeks, I’ve heard about management changes at corporations, bankruptcies, and mainly furloughs. Thanks to some courageous leaders many companies are pledging to NOT layoff but I’ve seen the layoffs in the restaurant, hospitality, entertainment, and travel industries. For example, United Airlines which accepted “stimulus” money will keep employees on the payroll until the money runs out. It’s April and they have already told staff to take 20 unpaid days off before October AND will lay off 30%.

I did my analysis back in March so I would not suffer from analysis paralysis today. You can easily get caught up with ALL of the changing headlines. I am preparing for the long winter like in the Game of Thrones. United Airlines is a big and resourceful company – if they have enough information in their crystal ball in May to a) take the stimulus money and b) still announce layoffs of 30% in October what does that mean for the economy, stock market and jobs picture. I always want to have optionality – you see I’m setup like United to ride the stock market being fueled by a) stimulus.  I’m only roughly 10% away from my all-time portfolio highs (4 Trillion in stimulus will do that I guess) but I’m slowly exiting winning positions AND my retirement funds are now not moving until I understand what United sees coming in October. Maybe they see reality sinking in once the stimulus wears off that we all must come together – stringent distancing, an effective treatment, bountiful productions of a vaccine, and less fear in the air.   If NOT it will be a long cold winter.

When it Comes to Bailouts --- Congress Be Nimble, Congress Be Quick

But if history is any example, Congress usually falls when jumping over the Candle Stick --- at least for the first few times. Take a look at what I wrote in 2009 and tell me if it sounds eerily similar to what is happening today. Does this mean that as humans we don't learn from our mistakes? I would hope not but wow the similarities cannot be overlooked. If you're lazy I'll paste a few excerpts here from the initial 2009 bailout response from Congress (https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/11/bailout-tarp-abandoned.html):

2009: "Here goes another I told you so. The bailout money allocated to buy distressed assets was abandoned by the Treasury Department. 

Fundamentally I agree with the fact that a bailout is needed but I have noted that the government needs to address both the supply and demand side of our economy. On the Supply side, I don't mind the Treasury department injecting cash into banks but I do think that one of the strange things is that but private investors like Warren Buffett are brokering better deals then the GOVERNMENT is. Part of the problem is no oversight or poor oversight because these banks are not lending to the public!"

2020 - Fast forward to March 23, 2020, the bailout provision did not pass the Senate last night. This will undoubtedly cause the stock market to fall swiftly even further, and oh boy is it ever. With a majority of my investments in cash, you have to take history into account. Everyone I talk to NEEDS the market to go up I assume due the sheer amount of leverage they have in the system. While I am hopeful as well, risk management IS NOT about hope. It's about threats and likelihood. I am certain no matter what the climate is, politicians cannot do the right thing the first time around. Similar to the courageous fighters "300", that they are NOT --- until the markets are truly crashing and panic is all around will something finally get done. Look at 2009, same circumstances in 2020. Compromise, take care of people first, protect your companies but make then remember the pillars so we learn from our past mistakes. 

2009: "Where do we go from here:

The markets will continue to trend lower or remain in a trading pattern. When I first spoke of actions to take to address the direction of the markets I recommended most folks get a majority of their money out of the market and into bonds. Then the Dow Jones Industrial Average (basket of the 30 large stocks representing the US economy) was trading around 9000 and my guess was that we would head lower and test recession like lows. The last time we could compare lows like this was in roughly 2002-2003 when the market hit lows of roughly 7700 (I believe). My assumption is that this will be the prudent time to begin to reallocate your portfolio back into the market. Again that is an assumption because I don't really think that this last time can be effectively compared to now. We are facing a local recession, rising probability of a global recession (in most areas except for China), and if these conditions exist we could be facing a depression due to deflationary pressure. This could be the one area that I initially got wrong...I thought we would be facing inflationary pressures or rising costs but that appears to be far down the line. Right now deflation is running wild and that is evident is the sharp decline of prices across the board. Gas is down from $4.00 to now roughly $2.00 and everything is falling with it, stocks included. If this trend continues deflation could lead to an extended recession and Dow 7700 may not even be a legitimate floor for the market."

2020: Again striking similarities. Gas then dropped dramatically to $2. Where are we now in 2020... this exact same range. I have not looked at the charts but my gut tells me we are headed to the highs of PAST which are significant lows from where we were just a month ago. Let's flash back the good times in 2007 and 2013 as examples:

Before the Crash we topped 14,000 on the DOW in 2007: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2007/07/dow-take-bow.html

After the Crash we hit 14,000 in 2013: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/dow-at-14000-pt1-are-you-too-late-for.html


We will get a bailout package in the next few days. Then expect the markets to bounce with euphoria. But then we will have to live with the unwinding process. If many of us are trying to get by living paycheck to paycheck...not everyone can be bailed out. Usually you see/hear debt or margin calls (people calling say you owe them money), foreclosures, evictions, etc. I am proud of the companies that have stepped up and delayed these payments already. But its a band aid measure. But proud non the less. I have not looked at the charts yet so this is not a prediction...but this could be a psychological number that is tested as it has been in the past.

Investing for Growth or Is It a Slowdown?...

URB - Economics

I barely lasted through a board meeting that proves my building morale is in a recession maybe a depression.  The arguing gave me the impression I was watching Congress debate about taxes or healthcare. :)

Speaking of Congress! While they talk about it often, it seems like things are only done about the economy in spurts or bursts. When it gets really bad, you and I get loud enough, Congress hears our anger and they throw us a bone or two and then get back to fighting about real issues...I guess.  It's interesting the topic is never 100% about the economy.  I would like to finally write a post about whether I definitively think the economy is growing or slowing down.  Its pretty hard to tell and as you know I constantly keep my ear to da streets to get a pulse from the people.  The real people that are trying to make ends meet day to day, rather than just arguing.  There are many mixed signals out there...and I see positive signs from improving housing trends to people starting to switch jobs.  But then there are the constant reminders of high unemployment, rising grocery bills, foreclosures, city governments struggles, and the federal budget problem which confirm that the coast is not clear.

Thanksgiving - Plenty to Be Thankful For

First, I would like to apologize for the pause in posting of my thoughts, articles, and trades. The last month has been very fast paced with lots going on. I was in Vegas for training and learned the latest developments in the banking industry. Then I was off to London to actually do some work.  I did get some time to enjoy the weekend in Vegas and celebrate my birthday...let's hope I'm getting wiser with age.  Here is a rundown of what's going on and specifically what to be thankful for:

What's Up With The Economy, The Deficit...

That is a really good question, "What's Up With the Economy?"!  The best analogy is the economy is sorta like a really nice business train that is slowly chugging along and starting to lose passengers at each stop.  I think this is an accurate picture because the data is definitely mixed, showing corporate businesses are doing quite well and chugging along, like the train.  The passengers being lost at each stop are comparable to middle-class Americans that are being negatively impacted by: 1) high gas & food prices, 2) declining housing prices, 3) still high unemployment numbers.  And the biggest problem is JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, or the lack thereof.  Jobs are so critical because they give Americans confidence that the economy is getting better when they see their neighbors getting up and going to work, coming home with bags of groceries, and investing in their homes.  So who is focusing on getting more Americans jobs? That's the question that needs to be asked of everyone from the president and his administration, to your senators, then your local congressmen, and also of the companies that are doing well.  Every moment should be spent on turning the dismal job scenario around and we've seen our politicians come up with some solutions but not nearly enough.  The formula is not that difficult as it usually comes down to stimulating Americans and stimulating the companies who are tasked with hiring more Americans.  Its a shame the debate in Washington is whittled down to spending versus tax cuts, but that has been the case.  Last time I checked both scenarios cost taxpayers money but are needed to bring this economy back to life.

Where Did Your Toxic Assets Go, Mr. Bank...

That's the question for an accounting group that sets up standards for companies reporting financial information. They have a standard that determines how to account for assets on companies books. Well today they decided to give companies more room when valuing these assets, and this could give a big lift to those banks we have grown to hate.

The group is called the Financial Accounting Standards Board and they are supposed to be independent when establishing these rules. But it appears they may have caved to the pressures of Congress and Wall Street when it came to political pressure around the somewhat unpopular rule.

The rule, called mark-to-market, is supposed to increase transparency for investors because we can see what these assets are valued by today's standards. But the problem some critics say is what happens when the market tanks (like it has been) and their is NO VALUE. Well, what happens is the financial statements of the banks become horrible.

My Opinion - Keep the rule because it provides transparency and uncovers assets that are beginning to decline in value. But as the rule has been adjusted I won't cry I will just buy and that is the BANKS for a short period of time. The assets are still bad on the banks books the difference is now they don't have to tell is they are!!!!


BUY: Direxion Shares Financial Bull 3x Ticker: (FAS) - This gives you 3x the returns for the banks going up. But just buy a little cause it will take you for a crazy ride!