Investing in Change - Colin + Collectors Universe (CLCT)

I wanted to start off with an acknowledgement that we hopefully call rally around, the simple fact that Black Lives Matter.  I knew it mattered decades ago when I first developed this blog. Urban Economics - the intersection of what it means to be black and the development (over the years) of a toolkit to survive in a harsh landscape that is not welcoming to people that look like me. Urban was used to describe the music I listen to (Grammy: Best Urban Contemporary), the neighborhood I live in, and even the way my people spoke. So it was clear to me even then that BLM I just couldn't scream it to the rooftops because we all knew about the that thing lurking around the corner called "systemic racism". Today's post is not about the many times I've been singled out by the police, those articles will come but the "FEAR" of entering the corporate world and trying to survive for your family. The fear that being too outspoken can get you singled out. How do I know --- we've seen it happen too many times especially to the good ones. Muhammad Ali, Martin Luther King Jr., and yes Colin Kaepernick.  I saw that young brotha's wings get clipped too early and we all knew the unfortunate price he would pay.  

How do businesses deal with this issue, well there is a term and strategy I learned in the corporate world used to prevent them from getting singled out.  During the financial crisis it was invoked because there was a fear in the air and everyday people were taking matters into their own hands. They ran, literally into banks, and withdrew all of their money fearing one bank failure meant their bank would be up NEXT. There is a reason why the call it "A Run on The Banks"...look it up.  So during the financial crisis (feel free to read about it on my blog from 2008-2010), the people in charge (Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, Hank Paulson) devised a plan to help the banks survive being "singled-out" for taking funds from the government. Think of it from my perspective as an investor: if my bank is taking money --- they must be in BIG trouble! If I see this I sell my stock and further I pull my money out of that bank --- hence a run on that bank begins or continues. The plan that was devised was for EVERY bank to take the bailout money (the bitter medicine even if you didn't need it) for the greater good of the banking system and the country. They call that "ring-fencing". If everyone is doing it, I can't single out one why one actor is doing it.

Fast forward to what Urbanomics has always been about. A place for all people, but in particular my People of Color to learn from each other and not be singled out in Corporate America as too ambitious, driven, or looking out for your own personal or family's best interest. My issue with the NFL, the players, and the owners is they didn't realize this simple fact when we all watched Colin Kaepernick do what was right. No one ring-fenced the young man and I was irate then and still am. Like Lebron James said...the NFL owes Colin Kaepernick an apology and I agree. If everyone would have knelt....yes you Drew Brees maybe we all could have focused on the real issue at hand and maybe just maybe he would still be playing.

So if you are new, read this blog to empower yourself. Those of us that have read over the years realize what I am saying isn't anything new --- we are uniting as a collective unit to be great parents, workers, investors, and agents of change as there is strength in numbers. And I also believe that in a capitalist society, money talks. Because when you're are a collective unit, you have strength or as I like to call it leverage and you can negotiate what's in the best interest of you and yours.

I'm sharing the best performing stock in my portfolio in hopes that the NFL and teams do right by Kaep. In hopes that we ring fence and invest in our futures together --- strength in numbers. You can read my many posts over the years on Collectors Universe (CLCT). I bought this stock when I was a young pup and it holds true to my pillars. Build a strong core, work hard, and prioritize what's most important to you. To me it's family, so my portfolio of investments simply means I prioritize time and relationships in this short beautiful life. 

Thank you #Kaepernick, yes #BlackLivesMatter, and I remind you #ifnotnowthenwhen

If you need a disclosure, yes I own CLCT and have since at least 2007. Buy low and hold on to great investments. CLCT pays a dividend and most of your investments (real estate, business, stocks, etc.) should be providing you some type of return because it's a valuable asset. Be humble and surround yourself with people smarter than you. Take but manage risks very well.

Please Don't Kill My Investing Vibe...

Thanks to Kendrick Lamar for producing one of my favorite tracks out there and describing my approach right now to life and investments.  Plainly said, I don't want anyone messing up my vibe of working hard, making quick and thoughtful decisions and reflecting on it all to ensure that I'm focusing on things that will make me better.  My investing vibe right now is to sit back and ride out this amazing economic and stock market recovery.  I remember how bad both were years back and we must take a moment to give props to resilient people (workers), companies, and yes even 'some' of our politicians that promoted a pro-growth environment.  I firmly believe if we had engaged in less stimulus and more cost cutting we would've been in BIG trouble.  This is what makes the field of economics and behavioral analysis so interesting to me. But before I put you to sleep...follow my vibe:

Dark Knight ~ The Economy

Or should I saw dark nights and days are hovering above the economic horizon (the only idiot that can't see this is Larry Kudlow...who thinks this is just a blip in an economic "Goldilocks" rally) What do I mean by this...well I won't act like the politicians and keep telling you about my record on how I got this right (but if interested see my last post)! Because at this point in the game, pats on the back won't do because I believe we are in a seriously bad spot right now in the economy. I am going to continue to break course from my usual buy and hold mantra and say that we are in turbulent times and with the actions taken by the federal government make it difficult to take a historical perspective and apply it to today's situation. The fact of the matter is things are changing very rapidly...in ways that we haven't seen before and even your smartest people are having trouble getting this right.

Backdrop:

And I know that you are often told if you are young investor then just weather the storm and it will be alright. But as a 20 something that has seemed to be ahead of the curve of the direction of this unbelieveable storm that is now upon us, my interpretation is to head to safer ground until the storm passes. Why because we've been ahead of the game a few times now: I have written posts using logic and my very basic understanding of Econ 101 to identifiy the potential for a housing bubble...then we were ahead of the curve when we combined the everyday realities ofsoaring energy and food prices to point out that the average person on MAIN STREET (i hate this term) was already feeling the effects of inflation!

The Federal Reserve finally caught on and to their credit took some action to combat the inflationary pressures of soaring food and energy prices, however, one problem was still left unaddressed and that was the housing bubble. Limited action was taken to help main street solve the mortgage crisis which spilled over into Wall Street. Wall Street felt the effects through deteriorating mortgage backed securities and a rising waves of credit default swaps (basically insurance to investor when toxic securities began to crumble). You may call it karma but our inability to help main street has seriously crippled wall street. In my last post, I tried to highlight this problem and indicate that I believe that even with a much needed bailout package we haven't truly explored all of our options to begin to resolve this crisis and a 360 degree approach my be needed. To make a long story short, I believe the Fed now sees the need for some of the points that were raised in the last post, such as stepping in and being an intermediary for short term lending to companies (basically being a bank & lending companies money b/c the banks don't to and can't do it right now).

If you weren't aware companies are having trouble getting short term loans (for supplies, payroll, etc) and many get their loans through a market called commercial papers. We have previously raised a point in the previous post that the Fed may need to "act" as a direct lender and today, the Fed, concerned that the commercial paper market has dried up look to breathe life back into this market by basically providing companies with short term funding.

Current Environment:

I believe the storm is just setting in because of the aggressive and unprecedented steps that the Fed (some listed above) has had to take along with the most recent words from the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke. I know you don't think words are important but when one of the most financially informed persons on the earth believes that the economic outlook has "worsened", economic activity is likely to be "subdued", and the financial turmoil may "lengthen weak economic performance" we must all take heed. I am hear to tell you that the Fed Chairman never wants to scare us but he must paint an accurate picture...and when he uses words like subdued economic activity then we are probably going to experience some serious economic pain for a period of time.

Supporting Evidence:

~ Fed Chairman's recent words
~ Today's global rate cut by the US and other major central banks
~ Commercial paper markets (corporate short term funding) has dried up and the Fed has announced that is will step in and create a market to revive this much need source of funding
~ The economic slowdown and financial crisis is spreading GLOBALLY
~ The bailout will take time help financial firms solve their liquidity problems
~ Rate cuts along with other things historically push INFLATION higher

Problem Solving (Only my recommendation):

~ If you are an older person nearing retirement, you are in a very difficult situation and I don't have many solutions here

~ Middle aged people and people with children: you have a few other responsibilities that will need your immediate attention, so capital preservation will be very important (see below).

~ Young people, I am going against the grain and telling you to be concerned and focus on capital preservation also! Move 401K balances, IRAs and brokerage accounts into safer grounds and due to inflationary concerns that appear to be surfacing I would reallocate your portfolios in this order (if possible):

• Gold (as fears continue this is a global safe house and great inflation play)
• Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (this security give you the Treasury yield and accounts for the rise in inflation)
• Treasury and Money Market Securities (safest investment out there, but inflation will eat away at your savings, eventually)
• Bonds (even bonds have lost money but obviously a better option than stocks)
• Smart Dividend and Value Stocks - At this point I am recommending this only for your brokerage account and don't go for the highest yielding firms b/c they may be the first to cut their dividend (i.e., Bank Of America), which means that stock will then fall sharply. Look for the the stocks that will continue to pay a dividend and increase their payments (Kinder Morgan - Jim Cramer pick, Enterprise Partners - Urb pick, GE - Urb pick are names that will help you pay yourself during this tough economic period)

I'm Out!

March Edition: URB in 60 seconds

March flew by and Easter was alot earlier than it has been in a long time. But the markets didn't disappoint and here are some things that are on my mind as we move into April. (no particular order):

Phillip Morris break-up: Yeah I know cigarettes are almost a thing of the past. You can’t even smoke in a bar/club…thank goodness for my clothes, hair, and lungs. But a new target is in sights for the tobacco industry. With less restrictions, tobacco companies are growing overseas and fueling growth for these companies. Now this is an industry that often gets labeled as a "sin" or "vice" stock/industry...no arguments from me but once Phillip Morris (NYSE: MO) spins of Phillip Morris International (NYSE:PMI) it will be off to the races. With double digit growth in the pipelines, many hope this will be a cash cow like its poppa in the US. There are some concerns with how the spin-off will be taxed so I won't be jumping in before that.
said.


WiMAX - Think wireless radio and other devices anywhere you go. Some say this new technology that provides wireless access acrosss metropolitan cities will be the wave of the future. Does this mean goodbye to Satellite Radio...we'll see. A number of big players are onboard, Intel, Sprint, Time Warner, Comcast, and Clearwire to name a few.

Private Equity Firms don't play nice - After getting my heart crushed by private equity (JC Flowers & others) dissing Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM) and all my gains, these guys are at it again. Private equity firms just dissed Clear Channel and sent the stock spiraling down...guess the contracts just weren't written that tight in the first place!

Rebound in Financials and Mortgages - This rally spurned by the "life preserver" handouts by Ben Bernanke caused a rally on these stocks. But this is short lived in my opinion. Remember, consumer confidence is still very low, banks are still getting downgraded, and the housing situation is till a mess.

Federal Reserve Intervention - Nuff said on this topic, throw me a life preserver, playa.

Kenyan IPO – Safaricom (SCOM.NR) A good friend gave me the heads up on this telecom giant in Kenya. The window for the IPO opens March 28 and it should be interesting across many fronts. The IPO is priced to get a large local participation across the East African countries...not just Kenya. And like my idol Warren Buffet preaches, go with something you know. And after my trip to West Africa last year, I know that mobile phones are the hottest commodity in emerging markets (okay maybe not the hottest, but close). With costs being cheaper to put cellular towers up instead of wired phone lines many emerging countries are embracing cell phone. And with the ability to send someone minutes (almost like exchanging them as currency) this will be the backbone of technology growth across the world. But let's focus on Safaricom... its got the backing of Vodafone who is 40% stakeholder...which isn't a weak amount. And it has an 80% marketshare!!! Yeah take a minute to let that settle. I would be all over this like white on rice, but my brokerage firm said that they may not have access to this IPO, but note Morgan Stanley is a playing a role as a transaction advisor so if you can get in on through Morgan...make it happen.

Keepin' It Real / Urb Update: China Digital Holdings (STV)

My job here is to keep it real and keep hitting you with the truth. Kinda like real hip hop in my day when Public Enemy came out with the track “911 is a Joke”. So get up a get get get down 911 is a joke in your town! Well I wanted to finish posting my thoughts about the economy as I had promised in my last post. A few things have changed that will start to temper my views, however. But in honor of Public Enemy I will “keep it real” and hit you with my true assessment of how the economy and the market look at this point. When I sat down and took notes about what I was going to write it was just about the economy…and I believe it will be important to also write about the market. Because although similar the two do not necessarily go hand in hand. The economy represents the REAL, the everyday real time stuff that going on today. Houses being foreclosed on is REAL, prices of copper (and people beginning to steal copper from construction sites) is REAL, the price of gas is very REAL. And the market is based many times on Interpretation…you often have to ask yourself what do I think is going to happen to the market or this stock and how did I just interpret data or information provided by the market, or Ben Bernanke (Federal Reserve Chairman) or the chief executive of the corporation that I own. So stayed tuned for that because I just remember that my views on the economy haven’t changed… but with an emergency rate cut of .75%, and now another rate cut of .50% begins to change my views on certain segments of the stock market.

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URBANOMICS UPDATE: SELL CHINA DIGITAL HOLDINGS (NYSE: STV)

For the 3rd time in less than 2 weeks I have bought and sold STV for more than 5%! I told you that I have just begun the art of reading charts and the charts don’t lie. I used to laugh at those commercials that promise to make you a chart reading pro, and even though I still think that they are a bunch of bulls$#@!, I am beginning to understand the rewards of chart reading. URB REAL LIFE EXAMPLE: My most recent example is based on my recommendation, I told you that my price point for STV was $21.50. STV fell to my targets and I received an alert yesterday to determine if I wanted to buy the stock again for the 3rd TIME! So I watched in and decided to get in YESTERDAY (1/30/08) @ $21.25. STV is up almost 10% today and I will place a limit order to sell the stock somewhere above $23.25. I will reflect this sell in my stock tracker also. And again if STV hits my target I will buy it for the 4th time and attempt to pick it up in my stock tracker also…so that you can see that multiple roundtrip buy and sell orders can be made on this stock.

Enjoy!!!

~J. Gotti