Speculating on Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: APLS)

    

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
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Second Chances - Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: APLS)

One thing I've learned over the years is to keep it a buck or 100 with myself. Many people lie to themselves and others when it comes to money, relationships, etc. So when I invest, I like to start off with whether I'm truly speculating. Speculation is basically guessing/hoping/wishing that an investment does well WITHOUT any real research or knowledge of the intrinsic value of the stock. This IS clearly the case with interest or investment in Apellis Pharma. I don't claim to know what the stock does or really care. Using a dating analogy, this is truly a fling and it's important for you to separate your long-term investments from your flings. Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: APLS) is the WHO.

Now let's answer the WHAT: I was listening to a stock investor describe this stock and their investment thesis. While his thesis was thin, I like the premise. Around the middle of this year, the American Society of Retina Specialists (“ASRS”) posted a letter that raised some issues with Apellis’s product SYFOVRE. From what I can gather, APLS' trouble began when physicians found cases of eye inflammation in patients treated with the drug SYFOVRE.

Now let's answer the WHEN: Like infidelity going viral on the Gram, the news immediately caused Apellis’s stock to fall an astonishing 38%, to the $52 range. On July 18th, the stock then proceeded to fall another 24% to an even lower level of $40. My math ain't the greatest but this is almost a 60% fall in a matter of a month. A few days later it tanked an additional 15% as everyone jumped off the bandwagon. We are now talking about a stock down roughly 75%.

Now let's answer the WHY: I was gonna reference E-40 and the track "Captain Save a Hoe", but I don't think this investment is about saving or helping someone who doesn't want to help themselves. I know I am I am taking you off track here a bit --- but I think this investment is more about the human ideal of believing in second chances and comebacks. I think there MIGHT a comeback story here as I listened to a stock analyst communicate that the perceived issue may include the type of needle used to administer the drug.

Now let's answer the HOW: Like mining for gold in '49, I am out speculating at a price in the low $30 dollar range. My goal is to mine for minerals in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough. This investment will likely be very short-term play and a chance to see if the stock stops falling or rallies if the news MIGHT be less bad.

Unclear how this will turn out, but you'll be the first to know. I'd rather learn, earn, and take calculated risks than being the product.

#speculatevsinvesting #getyoururbon #learnandearn

All Falls Down - Foot Locker (NYSE: FL)

    

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

All Falls Down - Foot Locker (NYSE: FL)

You gotta know when to hold them...and more importantly when to fold your hand. Funny, even an experienced investor like me doesn't always follow my own instructions. So, what does that tell you about the power of human nature and trying to change habits?? I "speculated" and bought Foot Locker awhile back and I rarely buy a stock as it is trending up but I was listening to a stock analyst break down the stock and tell me why it was going higher...so I took a bite. My human nature is to hold to see how things played out and it has NOT played out well for Foot Locker. They have had a number of forces working against them. The biggest being that they are one of the largest wholesale distributors for Nike. Well, imagine what happened to the stock when Nike earlier this year (I believe, don't quote me) announced they were reducing their reliance on their wholesale pipeline. Let's just say the stock did not respond well. To rub salt into my sore wounds, I bought FL in the high 50s, after Nike's announcement, we all saw the stock fall to the 30s. I began to plot my exit by making aggressive trades that would release me of my bad ill-timed investment. The only solace I had was I was making a very small profit off of these bets but they would expire, and I was still stuck with my position. I guess complacency crept in and for some silly reason I still found myself holding this stock. This is the epitome of the well-known Wall Street phrase "don't catch a falling knife" or a "dog with fleas". Pick your slogan, I did not follow my own gut and Foot Locker released their earnings report (aka their quarterly health check) and it was not good. A stock that had been trading around the 30s has now dropped below $20 dollars a share. 

The beautiful thing about managing my own money is I have no one to blame...ACCOUNTABILITY. So, this is a post to show you the downs of investing, no one is perfect but a reminder to set your limits. I could have easily just have sold my losing position at 50, 40, 30 but I didn't. So now I will be forced to take a big loss. I will be using this stock to offset my gains this year but my goal like Warren Buffet says is to not lose money. I failed with this investment and the pain will teach me a life lesson.  Cutting bait from things that bring negative frequencies, energy and darkness to your life is a must. I pride myself limiting mistakes and mitigating risks and you should try to do that in your life. The nice thing about stocks is you can set automatic trades that if a stock drops below a certain level it would executed. I guess my pride got the best of me...human nature.