Summertime Rally - It Ain't Broke So Don't Fix It

Here it is the groove slightly transformed
Just a bit of a break from the norm
Just a little somethin' to break the monotony
Of all that hardcore dance that has gotten to be
A little bit out of control it's cool to dance
But what about the groove that soothes that moves romance
Give me a soft subtle mix
And if it ain't broke then don't try to fix it


~ Will Smith + DJ Jazzy Jeff ---Summertime

I often use my blog as my personal sticky notes. It becomes a treasure trove of how I traded the markets --- say during a previous recession. When I look back during those times, I laugh at the days I was recommending stocks (in a recession) --- but it serves as a healthy reminder that there will be plenty of good days as the economy heals and eventually rebounds. Are we already there? Well that's why I put on the track Summertime. While some may say its still technically Spring, the markets are roaring back and it feels like Summertime in the air. Good data is in the news for a change to break the monotony. It's cool to go outside and goof around in your backyard. It is so nice outside, many states are even trying to re-open BUT with the shelter-in place strategy working --- I often hear 'if it ain't broke then don't try to fix it'. I want to highlight the difference between MACRO AND MICRO.  While I may believe there is a long difficult road ahead (MACRO), I can't deny that weeks of 4/20 and 4/27 have been really good so far (MICRO).  Here are some of the headlines:

Fear of Missing Out -- FOMO RALLY 

The S&P 500, aka the S&P, is one of the more commonly followed stock indices. It is a good reflection of the U.S. stock market as it tracks the performance of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The all-time high of the S&P is roughly around 3380s in February 2020 --- well I'll be the first to say I'm very impressed, while also very shocked at the massive rally off the bottom. This is why I allocate funds in different buckets. My investment account has been fully funded in stocks and I have bought a few new stocks but mainly I've monitored the stocks that were down and glad to see many of them moving up off their lows.

COVID-19 Treatment / Vaccine News

Gilead Sciences (GILD)  This morning as I was watching the markets, a ray of hope sent the stocks shooting up. GILD released preliminary results of a coronavirus drug trial which appears to indicate that at least 50% of patients treated with a 5-day dosage of antiviral drug remdesivir got better and more than half were released from the hospital within a two week period. My understanding of the data appears to show similar results with a 10-day dosage (so positive news for a lower dosage period). Remember, this is NOT a vaccine only a treatment to save lives! But I think the market is looking for rays of hope and people will begin to see a path forward if they know there is an opportunity to survive this deadly virus.


Real Estate   

Developer DR Horton (DHI) said it has observed an upturn in weekly sales for the most recent two weeks.  March was been a rough month for real estate sales. I assume the industry needed some time to adjust and adopt technology to allow for more remote video based tours. A green chute in the housing sector can be seen as mortgage applications to purchase a home pivoted directions and moved higher a week ago --- up 12% week over week, says the MBA. This uptick was seen across the 10 biggest states and may kick-off a snapback spring of homebuying.

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URB Lesson:

Macro - I like to tell people to plan long-term 3-5 years and have opinion/view/perspective on how you expect things to play out. I watched the movie 'CREED' and based on your opponent you have to develop a game plan...even when you're the world champ.  Example: Towards the end of 2017, I had a view that the market was no longer cheap. So I changed my approach, I trained for 6 months and found ways to make income on quick trades. Normally I like to buy and hold for many years but it life we must adjust to the data (or your opponent).

Micro - This article is to keep it real. The last few weeks have been positive. That is great for me, my family, the city and state, country and world. Be flexible to take advantage of these micro moments. I am long in my stock portfolio but I can still be conservative in my retirement account.

What I am Trading - I have been actively trading UBER (UBER) over the last 3-4 weeks. I get in and get out. For example, I think its all time low is 18 --- I bought at $23 in my retirement account and just sold today. I was pleasantly surprised with how it performed. In my stock account, I was early on UBER and bought at $27ish. I traded around the position using options and took some nice income wins and then I sold off the position this week. But I need to research my opponent UBER further. A good friend of mine...billionaire Jim Chanos thinks UBER is a bad investment --- so I can be stubborn OR I can be balanced. He wisdom has prompted me to sell my position even though I was up over 33% in one account and had small gains in another. I must remain humble and see life and trades through the eyes of others. If not, you don't see the hidden risks around the corner.  Why do I respect Jim so much he makes money typically off of betting when stocks go down...very difficult thing to do. 

On advice from another famed short-seller Carson Block of Muddy Waters --- they bet that Luckin Coffee would tank. China's next Starbucks was a high flyer UNTIL this month: Luckin Coffee fell over 70% after the company disclosed its chief operating officer fabricated 2019 sales to the tune of over $310 Million dollars. How in the hell do you hide $310M when the whole world is watching you. That's my MACRO concern with this Summertime rally - we are still scared, jobs lost, many lives lost --- BUT the market looks as if that's all in the rearview. For now, I'll enjoy cutting the grass and chasing the kids but I do wonder what will be the damage from the coronavirus recession. 

Investing in a Coronavirus Epidemic ---- No Testing Time to Move to the Sidelines

So 10 days ago, I wrote the following article: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-virus-goes-viral-why-stocks-are-in.html

Viral + Misinformation
I needed you all to truly understand in the age of social media, 24x7 news media, and poor governance from some world leaders -- the virus has truly gone viral.  The virus is NOT a FINANCIAL ISSUE it is a biological disease. A viral pandemic will NOT be cured by pouring money back into our economy.  The fact that our leaders have NOT provided a clear message is evidenced in my conversations over text, e-mail, and chat with family, friends, and co-workers. For example, a question came into my local public radio station. The question was: What type of antibiotic can be proscribed to combat the coronvirus?

Answer - This is NOT bacterial, antibiotics is not a solution to protect us. The fact is I wrote here weeks back, that a few companies have JUST started research on this virus in search for a vaccine and companies like Gilead, Moderna, and others are possibly over a year away from finding a cure and mass producing a vaccine. 

Stop Worrying About Perception
Crisis is managed by LEADERSHIP, constant factual messaging, and preventative and detective measures. I used to work with a guy years ago that bragged, boasted and used dumb ass phrases like 'epic fail', to put down everything and everyone in an attempt for him to look great. Well, this becomes an issue when you do and say these things all time. When a real crisis finally comes, he looks like the epic failure because he cried foul so long no one could distinguish the real crisis from the minor issues he used to rant about. The reality is his leadership was an 'epic fail' and that reminds me of what I am seeing today.  I get paid to manage risk and everyone knows the two primary methods of risk management are Preventative measures and Detective measures.

         Our leaders have dropped the ball on Preventative and Detective Measures. 
My colleague used the word perception and I thank him for that. My favorite term is optics as many of my colleagues and clients know. People drastically underestimate the optics of a situation and I believe its made me a fairly strong businessperson.

Perception 1 - In the US, we cannot and should not restrict people from travel, social gatherings and events, and work. It's draconian, un-American, because we're too sophisticated to adjust our way of lives.

Preventative Solution - Okay, to start...don't use the word quarantine (it's like socialism here in America just won't fly). But you should restrict travel, social and work gatherings, etc. To prevent a contagious disease spread by touching and coughing, you have to limit travel and close interactions. We know you want to keep the economy booming and the stock market up BUT this is the right next step. Like the loser who uses 'epic fail' many have dissed China for their draconian measures but their infection numbers are dropping, work is resuming, and confidence will slowly come back when you restrict or quarantine the nation.  Imagine that --- So Italy and the National Basketball (NBA) should be applauded for the courage to put people before profits because they would have been creating an environment to spread the disease if they did not quarantine their country and stop games, respectively.  If we are waiting for a message from every school, employer, and city to determine their own shutdown we are creating an environment of panic. This should be a message from the highest level, shutdown, so we are all on the same page. We call this setting the tone from the top. Don't leave it up to my elementary school, National Hockey League, Baseball, Golf, cities, states, and companies to make this call alone.

#2 or 3 weeks of profit pain help this disease go away

Perception 2 -  The greatest country in the world cannot develop enough testing kits to address this issue.

Detective Solution - We don't know how bad the situation is --- WHY because we DON'T HAVE ENOUGH TESTING KITS?  That seems more like someone doesn't want the real number to come out.  We talked about preventative measures, let's move over to detective. To detect the virus you need a kit. If you restrict people's travel period, then you can calmly share with people what the symptoms are, identify sick people, and test or DETECT whether they truly have the virus. We all know if the real numbers come out people will panic, but people are already panicking because they don't trust the current numbers being posted today. 

We freak out when an NBA player, or a guy on a jet, or symptoms show up in our local school --- I guess I wonder why people begin buying $100 dollar bottles of Purrell.  Tell the truth, most people have been exposed just like we all are exposed to the flu every year. Get us testing kits and let people know they will survive it JUST like you survive from the flu each year. We are all at risk --- risk is everywhere everyday --- but the people at high risk are the elderly and people with compromised immune systems. They need to be protected.

Restrict Travel and Movement - 2 to 3 week of pain could mean we get a handle on this

Get More Testing Kits - Yes testing reveals the true number and will burst everyone's bubble that many people around us are infected. But guess what, we stay home, treat ourselves, and get better

Ramp Up Protection For Elderly and Sickly - These are our most vulnerable population. Its time to give hospitals, nursing homes, and high risk people all of the resources they need. This includes make-shift hospitals just for the virus. Why because the last place I want to send someone with symptoms IS to a hospital FULL of people with compromised immune symptions.

Step Up and Pay for Time off and Healthcare - People sick or not will continue to go to work, in FEAR of losing their job. Pay for time off and for the fact that many people DO NOT have healthcare. If you ensure that panic dies down.

Loans to Affected Cities/States - Put in place the items I shared above. Every company and city will need a loan soon if you don't limit the spread further. So I don't love this idea b/c Cruise ships, retail, food, sports companies all will be hit --- are you going to bail them out. Bail people out first and companies will be saved. You do that and maybe it lessens the impact to business

# 2 or 3 weeks of profit pain helps this disease go away

Bad Ideas:

Payroll Tax Cut - Stop the optics of politics. This is a also a way to NOT fund Medicare and Medicaid. Just send me a check and ensure I have a job and health until the crisis is over.

So unfortunately since 2008, I have not had to make a call like this but I truly believe we are at this point. Until I hear the governance of our leaders changing, I will be personally moving my retirement portfolio to cash and safe assets. I have lost faith in the message coming from our leaders, the data being presented, and the actions -- or lack of actions being taken.

No Testing means I don't trust the data. If we don't implement the steps above then unfortunately my indicators say we are headed for a recession. I plan to move my retirement vehicles to cash, but I will keep my personal portfolio in stocks, I have some protection from the VIX, Gold, etc but it's not helping that much.

The Virus Goes Viral --- Why Stocks are in a Bear Market

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
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The Virus Goes Viral

This week the stock market was rocked by round the clock news of a SARS like coronavirus, COVID-19. The Dow fell 12 percent this week alone, which I believe is the biggest one week drop since the dreaded financial crisis. With over 3 Trillion Dollars worth of value erased in US Stocks, I get asked what in the world do I think is going on and what am I doing during a period like this. This very topic came up today when I spoke with my dear friend who happens to be one of the biggest mortgage brokers in the country.

When asked for my thoughts -- I told him plainly the Virus has gone Viral. And what I meant by this is, in today's hyperconnected world we are getting peppered with news updates, pictures, and opinions all day. I truly believe the virus has gone viral and we are seeing the market reacting to real-time tweets, posts, and texts as news comes out instantly. Gone are the days where we all had to tune into CNN or wait until our local news came on to try and decipher what was happening a world away. Over the past few weeks, I've seen constant pictures of cruise ships (not able to dock), masked people in coffee shops, and empty streets and restaurants. So my mind instantly goes to my favorite End of the World shows like the "The Last Ship" or "The Walking Dead" which similarly displayed quarantined ships and empty streets, respectively. The fact is as a county and world we may be more worried and nervous that ever before (thanks to Ring doorbells) and a polarized political environment. That uneasiness and mistrust, today more than ever, may be causing this natural response that this is the Big One. I am NOT arguing for less information but our futures will be scarier when you can watch a live counter of people getting sick and dying across the world.  

First, we should be amazed at how rapidly people now move across the world. When we had SARS back in 2003, the world was less mobile and while that virus hit with a fury -- it impacted less people. COVID-19 is a similar genetic strain to SARS but is clearly more powerful (virulent) and contagious. In a more mobile world, when one part catches a cold the rest of the world will catch that cold or at least sneeze. Similar to the flu and cold season, those most at risk clearly appear to be the elderly and people with underlying health conditions. 

So people need to hear from those in charge to ensure that a plan is in place for their health and well-being. This is a critical response to all those real-time updates we get and the apocalypse shows I watch. If I got a real-time update of flu infections and deaths each season, I would never leave the house (let alone a homicide update for most metro cities).  I wasn't paying attention back then  -- but does anyone know what we did as a country when SARS or Avian (Bird) flu impacted the world?  I don't so my point is don't panic.  Hospitals already restrict youth during flu season so our next best steps are: a) protecting our elderly    b) reducing close contact    c) washing our hands   d) hoping for warmer weather

With markets being at ALL TIME highs, it is a very rationale to be scared but don't panic and definitely don't SELL everything.

What Should Be Sold ---

Segments of the markets involving in travel, leisure, hospitality, dining, and retail. In addition, businesses with significant exposure to Chinese customers or China's supply chain. They will be sold off because we just don't know how long this disease will last. Also, due to today's hyperconnected world, NO ONE wants to be the company that didn't close its doors soon enough, cancel flights fast enough, or take the necessary precautions to keep customers safe. So businesses in this segment will take a hit.

What Should Be NOT BE SOLD ---

I think your healthcare, internet, gold and gold mining stocks should not be sold. I also think you need to try and protect your portfolio. Protect Protect Protect - you'll see that's why I've own gold related stocks like Novagold since 2008-9. Oddly enough that was the same time I advised my mortgage broker to add Gold to his retirement portfolio. I recently wrote about a healthcare stock: Gilead, a company helping to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. And I want to share with you an investment vehicle called the Volatility Index. Known as the VIX, this offers some protection when the stock market gets very volatile. I bought shares in the 4th quarter of 2019 (a little early) when I thought the market was getting to high -- I purchased shares around the $15 a share range. I'm glad to have insurance protection when the market feels like it is falling off of a cliff.

I own VIXY which is a volatility index fund. When things seem too good to be true, BE FEARFUL, and buy protection. Roughly 10% of my portfolio is being offset by VIXY which gives me some piece of mind on down days.

Try and protect yourself in advance of market downturns and then during the downturns we go bargain hunting. I picked up the following stocks in the last two days:

• Facebook (internet) 
• Match Group Inc (internet) - Owners of dating sites: Match, Tinder, PlentyOfFish, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Twoo, OurTime, BlackPeopleMeet, and LoveScout24
• Teladoc (healthcare) - Virtual/Video conferencing healthcare services with your doctor and the future of a simple doctor's visit
• Uber - While ridership will decline, Uber Eats may pick up, I think it will be temporary and for a stock that fell from $42 to $29... an opportunity exists

My assumption is most people will be swiping right, wanting an expert doctor opinion or eating in. Me, I'll be #investandchill

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) -- A Possible Solution To Coronavirus

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
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How Are You Feeling -- It's Lit!
This month, I'm still riding high as Symantec/Norton LifeLock and Sprint have me toasting for more good luck to come.  Norton Lifelock offered shareholders a special dividend of $12 this month so you guessed it...we goin' to Disneyland just like Patrick Mahomes said after winning the Superbowl MVP. If you're not good at math well here goes -- if you owned 100 shares you got a $1200 deposit in your and let's say you owned 1000 shares, well you guessed it -- you'd be getting $12,000 for betting on a stodgy OLD cybersecurity company. Sprint and T-Mobile have just announced the deal will likely close by April 1st so in my world of Risk Management...there are NOT many more obstacles to overcome this deal closing as one of my biggest investments in my life closes. I hold Sprint in both my retirement and personal account and Norton Lifelock just contributed only to my retirement account.

Stop Reinventing the Wheel -- Learn From the Greats
I often joke with people that by speaking positive vibes into the world -- you can speak things into existence.  So one of the biggest lessons I've learned over time is to read and research how other greats have walked. I call it the Lexus philosophy. I recall a Lexus executive speaking at a roundtable series in college and I thought the building blocks of the company were simple and smart.  They knew who did what well. By this I mean, he noted that: German's had great engineering, American's dominated in design, and the Japanese were dominant in manufacturing without significant defects. So when Lexus set out they simply decided to borrow best practices from the best companies in the business. I use this philosophy everyday -- don't overthink it...reuse it.

Black History Moment
George Washington Carver - Some called him a botanist or an a pioneer agronomist. He developed amazing uses for plants - peanuts, soybeans, and sweet potatoes. Being born a slave didn't stop Carver, he went on to obtain his undergraduate degree from Iowa State and then he accepted a job at the Tuskegee Institute where he invented and reinvented products -- more than 300 way to use peanuts to may products like soap, skin lotion, and paint. Wow - Witness Greatness
Gilead (GILD) - Repurposing Drugs for the Next Virus
Gilead Sciences is a value stock that's right up my alley. I've owned the shares for a few years and it hasn't done a whole lot. But in life, sometimes you have to be patient with just like Carver was with his crops. They had a blockbuster Hepatitis C drug that was no longer protected by patents so they enjoying the legacy riches from that investment and moving on to others. To speed up the process they invest in Kite Pharma in 2017 to bolster their pipeline. But I'm highlighting Gilead today because like Carver, I find in fascinating that firms repurpose things to create new products. In this case Gilead is using an existing HIV drug to fight a new battle against the Coronavirus. Gilead is developing an experimental drug called remdesivir and based on the numbers that continue to come out of the region, I hope the containment measures and drugs of tomorrow can assist to limit the impact of this virus going forward. The options market appears to be betting on Gilead moving higher and I could see it move towards the $80-85 range.

The Plan - Can the Economy Grow Forever?

I often talk about the Pillars that act as a beacon guiding my life, business, and financial decisions so I like to revisit those from time to time.

                 Urbanomics Pillars: “Spiritual”, “Financial”, “Physical”, and “Mental”

We often preach about balance and diversification in the financial world but how often do people consider this in their day to day loves.

Financial –

I’ve been moving comma’s so don’t start no trouble with me…

I hear you Drake, keep moving those commas. My mission is to do the same while helping people in the process. But before I get started I’d like to remind people of the incident at Starbucks this past week. Can you imagine getting kicked out of a coffee shop just because of the color of your skin…and my response is YES.  Those young gentlemen were having a business meeting, trying to move comma’s but trouble, haters…and risk interrupted their lives.  This is not an isolated incident for many of us so I ask for them to stay strong and rely on their other Pillars for balance and keep pushing forward.  Here are my views on all things financial:

Stock Market - Again, you won’t find me writing much about the stock market these days because things are steady. I said a few years ago, when Mohammed El-Erian described this economic period that we are in as the “New Normal”, that I thought we would continue to bump along higher and higher coming out of the near depression period of 2008. So the goal has been to find amazing stocks at discounted values and when they rise, part way above your target level...part ways with them.  Why because we are in the 9^th YEAR of an economic rally (soon to be the longest in history). I’ve learned over time from Mohamed, Warren Buffett, and others to try to keep it simple. So find stocks you like, determine what is the ideal price you would buy it at…sometimes take another 5% of that number and wait to see what happens J

Remember Lululemon recommended in the 40s, Apple in the 90s, Alibaba in the 80s, Caterpillar in the 80s, Manchester United @ 14 if not use the search tool and track these old friends of mine down. I still holding Apple, Alibaba, and Manchester United as core holdings and am learning how to protect these holdings as they've appreciated nicely. So to the many people that say growth has dominated the market in recent years I agree but I remind them…for me it’s the long game and how much you bought something for and amazing even a few growth stocks like Apple and Alibaba will fall into your lap.

And for the people that trust in the process, support others, call out injustice when they see, and pay it forward here’s what I’ve been trading.  It’s my way of giving back…my free and very simple knowledge. A chart is included below and simply represents prices where I’ve had success trading these stocks over the last three to six months. The Column on the left are shares I've owned and traded options in. The column on the right I’ve just traded options only. The asterisk means I still own the stock:

Note: Please find the correct spelling for Qorvo 

More to come on how I'm planning for the future (real estate, biz development, taxes) as the soon to be longest economic rally history WON"T last forever. And yes...I was channeling Drake’s hit song God’s Plan when I was developing this post and was equally inspired by Kendrick Lamar and Jay-Z’s recent projects and social consciousness. Many blessing to them and to you all.  And if you haven’t seen the video, of course I recommend that you check it out here:

How to Invest in a Clinton / Trump Election Year...

First, I'll address where I've been since my posts have dried up for about a year. My answer is: "Still Right Here".  As we all know for the last few years, people continue to have to do more with less and that extends to companies. With unemployment pretty low for most big companies, they have to squeeze more out of every employee.  Good old fashion hustlin', and I got the memo and have been very busy at work and in my personal life.  The other reason, I haven't written much is because as a country and in the stock market things appear to be in a holding pattern.  I had a feeling a little over a year ago that the stock market was reaching its tops and I took my ball and went home.  For my portfolio, that meant I decided to sell some of the stocks that had been big winners. If you need a reminder flash back to this post: http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2014/08/marketsno-longer-starting-from-bottom.html

I never like selling but if life you can't get too greedy so I parted ways with names like:

• Allergan - maker of botox (Allergan was acquired Actavis for a nice price) :)
• Lululemon - athletic wear (bought when it was in the low 40s, after some of their pants were showing too much skin and when the CEO ranted he didn't want bigger sized women wearing the clothes, and waited for them to correct their missteps)
• Caterpillar - big equipment maker (bought early and they fell, then I acquired more shares over time through patient dividend investments and they rallied above my purchase prices...just sold in the last few months for a small gain)
• NovaGold - gold miner (bought over 3 years ago and they dropped by over $50 percent; my old mentor reminded me if the fundamentals make sense buy when they are on discount. At roughly $3 I bought more and sold a good portion of it this year at just under $7. 

I felt a little over a year ago we were closing in on the top and I was just a bit early, but by planning then I was starting to set myself up for what's to come. A market near its highs, a Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump election year, and other surprises like the UK leaving the European Union have kept the markets a little uneasy. So I'll tell you what I've been quietly doing as I've sold my winners over the last few months:

Buying Top-Tier Companies (when they reached Low Prices):

• Apple (bought in the low $90s)
• Verizon (bought in the low $40s)
• Manchester United (bought b/w $13-14 range)
• Gilead (bought b/w $73-74) 
• Alibaba (low $80s)

These bigger names anchor my portfolio and should grow in good times and fingers crossed, the bad times. They all pay a dividend so they will pay you to wait :)

I then decided to begin thinking about how I wanted to thin my portfolio out to and hold higher quality names. I've been making hard decisions and here are some of the mistakes I think I have made:

• Gold - NovaGold (I still own a small portion and should have sold it all when it hit its highs)
• Oil - There is too much oil around the world and oil stocks are NOT going anywhere anytime soon. I own (British Petroleum(BP), Oasis Petroleum, Cheniere Energy) and the only good thing is the latter two, I don't hold big positions. BP pays a nice dividend so I use that to buy more shares and love that this is a long-term cornerstone of my portfolio at these levels.
• Non-Dividend Stocks, Not Growing - Lastly, I have a few stocks that don't pay a dividend!! I've held them for quite some time and they are just sitting there taking up space. For me names like:  St. Joe's Company (real estate), Nuance Communication (voice services like Siri), Hertz, and a few others just are not bringing much to the table. So I'll likely be parting ways with these names in the future.

I'm reminding you to go Vote, go Cubs, for me...go focus on higher quality names in this crazy election year.

~ Get Ur Urb On

IPOs, A Little Defense, & China's All Star Team...

Initial Public Offerings (IPO)
Guess what's back in vogue, the wild rush of buying an IPO.  This is usually reserved to investors who are highly coveted, so usually not you and me.  However, a little unknown tip is that you can call your brokerage firm and ask if there is a process for you to sign-up or participate in IPOs.  You might be surprised that some of your favorite companies and their products have recently gone public. Check out these IPOs: