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Showing posts with label Collectors Universe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Collectors Universe. Show all posts

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Congrats Aveo Pharmaceuticals!!! 1 BAGGER | Up 100% #MansaMusaHOF

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans


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We wanted to celebrate Aveo Pharmaceuticals (AVEO) which officially enters the #MansaMusaHOF. 
A stock enters my Hall of Fame when we officially #getthebag. 1 Bagger = Up 100%. Not many will reach the heights of Collectors Universe which got us 10 Bags, (10 Bagger = Up 1000%) but we are celebrating today on positive news confirmed by the company: FDA Approval Of FOTIVDA For Relapsed, Refractory Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma


For those that are learning to invest.
#WhentoBuy - Search my site for my notes on when I first found AVEO (more to come in my future AVEO Detail post)
#WhentoSell - I've sold shares here and there (pruning) on positive news but still maintained some shares. Now that they have FDA approval this could really propel the stock higher. But remember, don't get greedy pigs get slaughter...always take $$$ of the table and bank it for the future.

#MansaMusaHOF
#1BAGGER
#GET THE BAG

Friday, December 04, 2020

Stock Motivation 101 - Standing Ovation: Your 1st 10 Bagger

These are more than words, this is more than rap
This is the streets and I am the trap
Standing ovation
Standing ovation

Once upon a time, I used to grind all night (grind all night)
With that laptop screen, that was iPod white (yeeeeeah)
I'm a boss, I got Juice like the magazine (jeah)
And everyday I see CEOs like a magazine (ha ha)
Psychopathic wordplay, schizophrenic flow (flow)
I guess it's safe to say I got schizophrenic dough (daaaaamn)

Artist: Young Jeezy / Album: Thug Motivation 101 / Song: Standing Ovation

Not too long ago, I watched two rappers, Young Jeezy and Gucci Mane square off on the VERZUZ platform. For me, VERZUZ is a musical boxing ring - one artist plays/performs a song and then the next artist gets their opportunity to play a memorable track. This internet only event live streamed over 1.6M+ people watching two titans of the south battle over of the world's favorite trap rap classics. Before I segway, I want to remind people this is the power of positivity as this internet only event easily competed with the viewership of the American Music Awards and many other prime time events that week. This event showcased two talented people of color who have been at a literal cold war for over two decades and shows how growth, maturity, and time can begin to heals old wounds. Imagine the business that can be done for our people in Atlanta if these two dare to work together in the future...powerful stuff.  Shout out to Stacey Abrams for making a brief appearance during the show. She reminded us of the important work that needs to be done on the streets. Voting, changing hearts, changing lives.

I'll segway to a first ever event I've had as an investor, Collectors Universe deserves a "Standing Ovation".  Why does it deserve a standing ovation? Well when I first taught myself to begin trading stocks at the age of 17, I use to listen to my dawg, the big homie Mario Gabelli. Yes, he's on the Forbes Billionaire list, has a business school named after him, has large stakes is a shitload of companies...and most people don't know he's one of the top 1500 of billionaires. 

Over the years on CNBC, Mario would describe this almost magical feeling (in my mind) about owning an asset that increases over time to a monumental threshold called a "10 BAGGER"! This sweet utopian moment is when your investment has increased over 10 FOLD! Collectors Universe has been on an amazing tear this year and hit this unicorn status for me, for us this year. Here was the latest news that jointly cemented our legacy in history:

Collectors Universe to be Acquired by Investor Group Led by Entrepreneur and Collector Nat Turner for Approximately $700 Million.  
Note: Don't forget Steve Cohen, yes the investor who just bought the New York Mets is a part of this investment group as well.

Steve and this Nat Turner fellow ended my run but let's take a bow. Here is a nice montage to CLCT, they were a part of the family. Here is what Collectors Universe does: 



A 10 bagger means if you would have invested $1K with me it would have gone to $10K. This deal closes in in 2021. Can't wait to get into some "Good Trouble" with such a profitable investment. 

#mariogabelli #natturner #stevencohen #collectorsuniverse #10bagger #youngjeezy #stockmotivation101






Friday, November 06, 2020

CRONOS | ROKU | COLLECTORS UNIVERSE - 20% Increases After Earnings

ROKU - The reason I'm not active on social media is so it doesn't distract my investing. People tend to push their views on each other --- they call it their platform nowadays. I tend to allow data, research and science do the talking. For example, I wrote a post back in March about how we needed to aggressively defend against the virus. When it was clear our administration had no interest in taking the prudent steps I saw other countries taking, I didn't go Batman and start yelling on social media. I told my community to invest and go in Robin mode. Robinhood that is, we invest in things that unfortunately will benefit in this tough environment. Invest and then plant seeds in your community. 

Roku hit a low of high $50s and now just topped $250 after it reported earnings on Nov 5th. Just a few days ago this stock was touching $200, see the red highlight below. 

 


I have been speculating, guilty as charged, placing additional bets this stock wouldn't go parabolic before it reported earnings. It was a tight window and the trade worked beautifully. I saw a trend yesterday and pulled out after making over $5.5K in about a month on this stock. I'm glad I did b/c you could see this trending higher in the graph above. I put the trade on and took the trade off @ 3:59 yesterday, 1 minute before the market closed! It would not have gone well if I held on until today as the stock has gone parabolic baby!!! Not advised for rookies but how you play both sides as I actually own the stock as well and benefiting from this ride up. Here's that trade, time to find another trade to make: 
Stock                                                     Purch Date        Sold Date                   Gain   % Gain




CRONOS - Legalized marijuana was on the ballot in roughly 5 states. Again, I don't judge I just bet on the direction that the people's will is taking them. #countthevotes

Trust me people are moving to medical and personal marijuana use and less collateral damage on communities of color because they were in the past getting locked up for selling something that may not be legal. Cronos is up 20% and do to the % short (or ppl betting against this stock) there will be a party to get out of that trade leading this stock and other MJ stocks higher.



COLLECTORS UNIVERSE Thank you Warren for teaching me patience. I've owned this stock at least since 2008. Through the good and the bad I've held with strong conviction and received a healthy dividend and now I'm reaping the benefits of the growth or appreciation. Congratulations Collectors you are my first ever 10 bagger as billionaire investor Mario Gabelli often says. This stock have increased over 10 tenfold for me and proof as to why we should defy labels, boxes, and barriers!!!

 I'm investing my way out and teaching other people that look like me how to do the same. Just this year alone you could have been up over 700%, and the reason I know this is because I added this stock this year to my 401K plans and advised others who added it to their portfolios.



Sunday, August 30, 2020

Wakanda Forever

This post is being written with a heavy heart. I ask that you tune into the ABC showing of Black Panther in honor and memory of Chadwick Boseman. My brother, may you rest peacefully knowing that you moved this world in a way that will never be forgotten. You're portrayal of Thurgood Marshall, James Brown, Jackie Robinson, and of course your epic role in Black Panther will live long and inspire many for generations to come. Wakanda Forever

I'm know Black Panther or Luke Cage...I just use my everyday skills uplift myself and hopefully you. My everyday skills continue to see a nation that is hurting and in need of re-engineering.  A different and newer term used in my profession is transformation and I am a lead architect in transforming business and cyber security operations for companies across the world when they experience "issues". So you can rest assure, you are not alone...even countries and companies have issues and need someone to help.

I find out why things are broken and often challenge my stakeholders to lead me to the "root cause" of the issue. This exercise can be enlightening, humbling, and even embarrassing depending on people's personalities and what may have been overlooked as we uncover the issues affecting a team, department, or company.  We may summarize our analysis in a technique called a SWOT analysis --- which documents the (S)trengths  (W)eaknesses  (O)pportunities  (T)hreats of the entity being reviewed.

I have a fiduciary responsibility to my stakeholders so I come in as a independent party that has to be ethic and honest in reporting what I find. In the business world we have learned that only an "independent authority" will things get cleaned up. When I look at critical issues that African-Americans are facing with police departments, there is often no independent authority --- completely removed from the police department that can objectively weigh in and hold officers accountable. If you have immunity, it does not matter what I find in my analysis, and I suppose it does not matter what a cop does because immunity negates accountability. 

I often summarize what I do as being a Detective, Lawyer, and Psychiatrist. I'll breakdown why I have 3 different roles:

As a Detective, I have to accurately and even record all my interactions with my stakeholders. I find it strange that in my profession, all accurate interactions must be accurately logged yet we still have many police departments across the country that can't, won't, and don't securely record, log, and document all their interactions. If I chose not to do this I would get fired, why are police forces not held accountable like I would be in the corporate world?

As a Lawyer, I do have to advise my stakeholders when it appears they are in situations that are non-compliant with the law and the intent. But again, I find it strange, that there is a haze around the "baseline" conduct of how an officer must interact with it's stakeholders so that persons like myself can review how well they are complying to the baseline. We do things such as a lookback analysis. If you did a lookback analysis the my corporate methodology could quickly deduce that African Americans, particularly males are being negatively harmed by police forces across the country at a disproportionate rate to other classes of people. A lookback is a scientific way of identifying harm or abuse and we use it in the financial industry as research has shown that elderly people are often the targets and harmed by financial crimes. So if we can protect and prosecute elderly harm...why are African-American males not afforded the same protections.

The shooting of Jacob Blake and murders of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd are simply a small sample of my lookback analysis and the data is grim. There is no one taking any action with this clear and factual data which means by doing nothing...our politicians and our citizens are complicent if they do nothing with this data.

Finally, as a psychiatrist I listen to those I am working with to understand the entire story. I want to know what's working, what's painful, and what works well. When I see Portland, I hear the pain of a system that is broken. When I heard Doc Rivers question "Does this Country Love Us", I think he raised the question so many African Americans and a growing number of minorities are feeling. You just have to listen...and many people are not good listeners. Doc, I've have written over the years the contract that America has with African-Americans and it's people of color is a bad contract that needs to be re-written. It's the driving force as to why I will continue sharing my pillars. Love, Spirituality, Freedom, and Volunteerism are the paths forward. But in the US, if you are not financially, spiritually, mentally, and physically healthy and organized then the toxicity of wealth and leverage of those in power will try to snuff you and your voice out...like they did George Floyd. 

As a security expert, I use tools like: Cyberark, Zscaler, Crowstrike, Splunk, Cisco, Palo Alto Networks, NortonLifeLock, Tenable Holdings. 

However, I remind my clients that tools make you more efficient they hardly ever solve the root cause of who is responsible, what was the target goal and how do you measure progress, and finally how do you hold someone accountable?

Stay Balanced, Stack Your Chips, Get Organized and Let's use our Leverage --- to truly effect change.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portfolio Summary:

Collectors Universe Hit new all-time high of $50. - So your boy finally did it. Some of my shares are officially considered a 10 Bagger. That's when they increase 10 fold. If you'll recall, I bought Collectors back in 2008 so some of my shares bought at $40 finally reached this status first described by the great investor Peter Lynch. Still Holding

Sprint Finally Sold -  Here is my sale of 50% of my Sprint stake for roughly $5K in profit. I wish I would have held on until 1 full year for it to be considered a Long Term investment for tax purposes but that's another class for another day. I grew up with not much so I'll take these blessing and put them to good use. 



Saturday, November 23, 2013

Easier Said Than Done...

“It’s been a long time, shouldn’t have left you without a dope beat to step too…”  As you know I have a love for music, especially hip-hop, so when I am thinking a song will often pop into my head.  Here, I am thinking of how long it’s been since I’ve written something to the readers out there.  I admit work, life, and stuff happens but I shouldn’t have left you without a nice article to think about.

I would like to start off by simply just being honest!  One of the primary reasons I have not written anything is that in REALITY there is not that much going on in the investment world.  Maybe I should say it different, the markets have been steadily going UP and there hasn’t been much else.  If you remember, there have been a few moments in the last year or so where I wrote that the stock market indicators lead me to believe that stocks and the overall market were headed higher for the foreseeable future.  If I were a TV personality, I can say “We Predicted This Would Happen!” but the reality is it took months and months of reading, researching, and keeping my eyes and ears open to rationalize where things were logically headed.  The goal while investing is to navigate through ALL of the NOISE (family, friends, and TV people telling you how to invest) and for you to logically conclude about where things like are headed.  Once you get a good idea about that then you can determine what and how much to invest in.  I am here to simply share my thoughts on how I navigate through the noise so that I can share those with you and I can learn from the past by coming back and reading my own writings.  This is helpful in life, because you must navigate through the noise (when choosing a house, car, job, etc.) and really get down to making a sound decision.

Here I am always looking to make a sound investment and I’m going to present 1 topic to assist you on your investment journey:

Easier Said Than Done…

Monday, December 20, 2010

Santa Claus Rally...

This rally came too early to be called a Santa Claus rally this year!! To have a quick flashback you will recall that we recommended increasing our holdings of stocks to take advantage of certain actions earlier in the year like Quantitative Easing (QE). Looking back, I agreed with the thoughts of many other investors and economists that it was time to move up in the risk spectrum. At that time, I believe QE would negatively impact bonds and favorably impact stocks. Our picks ranged from: 1. Dividend Stocks 2. Commodities 3. Large Cap 4. Our Usual --Down and Out Stock w/ Great Upside Potential.

Urb Lessons Learned: Keep some skin in the game on speculative stories that perform well.

This year I learned to trust my instincts but I wasn't consistent with my usual strategy of keeping a little bit of a well performing stock. The following stocks fit our Down and Out Stocks w/ Solid Upside, however we sold early and didn't keep any to enjoy this even more of the upside:

~ Boston Scientific (BSX): Bought this down and out and eventually accumulated this stock at a dollar cost average of $6.20s. Looking back we sold this stock around $7 and now it boasts an asking price of $7.82. Things that make you go hmmm.

~ Audiovox (VOXX): This consumer technology play was a solid call after it clear our down and out strategy with great upside. Consumers are coming back and they make the great Xmas devices that are on people's wishlist. Bought around 6.40s, sold around $6.8os because I got jittery and this stock now trades around $8.45!!! Wow

This reinforces my lesson learned in 2010, keep some in the game, you'll regret it less later!

Here is a look at other nice calls since our shift away from bonds:

~ American International Group (AIG): Gone from $30s to $50s and it looks like the upside is just beginning. This was part of our down and out call, no dividend so the upside needs to be significant

~ Collectors Universe (CLCT): Maintained our position here from levels that range from $ 4 to 9 bucks. This stocks boasts a healthy dividend payout of 32.5 cents a share and keeps the income stream coming in. Management has cash so the dividend looks solid. And the ride up to the $14-15 dollar level has given us nice appreciation.

~ Iron Mountain (IRM): This stock is a quiet surprise because its seen good upside very quickly. Roughly a 20+% move, this was a down and out stock that boasted good dividends.

~ Republic Services (RSG): Waste management has never looked so sexy. I personally think this stock was battered for tough reasons, which gave us a great entry point and this stocks has a dividend.

~ Oracle (ORCL): I don't write often about this stock because I have never sold it since in 1999 or 2000. Yes, I have loyally owned it for 10 years. I never owned a lot and perplexed as to why I never bought more but its now gives out a small dividend which allows me to reinvent in ORCL.

UNDERPERFORMERS for 2010

~ Radisys (RSYS): The reason why this stock is listed in the underperform section because it hasn't gone down but its basically DONE NOTHING! If you don't believe me, check out my dog and largest shareholder David Nierenberg's letter to RSYS: Letter

Note: Please read this letter. Nierenberg has asked RSYS to take a number of steps to improve the stock price. It appears that RSYS just announced one of those actions, however it comes on the heels of RSYS trimming its 4th Quarter Outlook.

STAY TUNED FOR 2011

Friday, October 01, 2010

Like its Dynamite

If you haven't heard the song Dynamite by Taio Cruz you have got to check it out. Great song and it describes how our picks have been lately. My goal is to hopefully post more but write less. In this turbulent market, I think we have the right strategy for investors: wait for huge discounts in stocks and don't be foolish... take gains where they make sense. I try to frequently summarize recent picks and give status updates on older picks:

American International Group (NYSE:AIG) - I am trying to track down the most recent post of AIG. If my tracker is finally up and running I will look to see when I bought the shares. AIG was a pick that practically hit me in the head. I had a hard time recommending this stock but to be honest I listened to Bill Gross awhile back who said buy what the US Government is buying. I will write more later, as to my opinion on why this would be the case with stocks that are basically owned by Uncle Sam.
Disclosure: I own share of AIG

Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX) - Not a stock for weak stomach. But this company has made an acquisition and bounced high recently on publication about their defibrilator devices. This is one where I would continue to buy on dips. Dollar cost average in and be patient and this company is in a restructuring mode.
Disclosure: I own shares of BSX

Exar Corp (NASDAQ:EXAR) - Appears to have found a nice floor around the 52 week low mark. This could have good upside from here. Moving nicely already.

Audiovox (NADSAQ:VOXX) - Moving above recommend price.

Theravance (NASDAQ:THRX) - This one was a really solid call. It ripped up from recommended level after positive news based on FDA comments.

I also written recently about these stocks and continue to see solid upside going forward:

Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM) Up very nicely from recommended price. I watched this closely and there was a chance to buy this stock at an even further discount around the $20.80 and above. Doing well so far.

Comcast - Note there are two tickers for this company. Its up over the recommended price. I will write more about the difference in a new post.

Long-Term Stocks:
I love these names and they continue do very well:
Enterprise Partners (EPD)
Radisys (RSYS)
Disclosure: I own shares of RSYS
Collectors Universe (CLCT)
Disclosure: I own shares of CLCT
Visa (V)
Disclosure: I own share of V

Friday, September 24, 2010

A look back in time...

I've been following the ups and downs of the markets the last few months and what's interesting about my analysis is I don't really feel like much has changed. It has to be the most perplexing thing in the world for me now in my over 10 years of personal investing. It's perplexing because things are changing (slightly) and for the market we've seen its slow ascent higher. But I still think the market sucks. There is a lot of downside risk and I STILL like Commodities, Technology, Wireless.


I am clearing through my papers and I was looking of the habits of investing for success. The purpose of this blog was to capture the main theme of that write up and that was to keep a diary, a virtual diary in my example. The things to try and remember to do are:

~ Review your holdings (probably not daily)
~ Remember you portfolio includes all your accounts: Stocks, 401K, and IRA accounts do matter and they make up your complete portfolio
~ Pick how you want to measure your success: Success can vary from investor to investor so what defines whether you're up...a percentage, a target goal, etc
~ Start keeping track

I hope these tools go a long way into to helping you build your own portfolio. For me I do these things and really don't review my portfolio very frequently. I care about how they are trading but I don't get to concerned on their moves up or down. A great example was when we bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe. If you go back to when this stock was first recommended you will see why I thought it was important and at what prices I thought it was attractive. By taking notes, I still remember I liked this stock in the mid 70s because I believed that one of the positive things to take away from where the economy was at the time was the importance in commodities and the shift in emerging markets needing those commodities. I kept up with things but often didn't watch its swings. Its hard to wait but the odd thing was when Burlington finally got bought out at over $100 a share it was my friend that called me and alerted me of what had happened...I didn't know right away.


Here are a few examples of stocks that we've recommended over time and waited and watched them pay off as the fundamentals developed:


Supertel (SPPR) - I originally bought this in 2005 when it was known at Humphrey Hospitality. In researching my blog this was sold roughly 3 years later for around a 60% increase.

Cytyc (CYTC)- One of my all time favorite stocks, they were one of the first stocks I recommended and one of the first that I owned to get bought out. Bought at $17 and held until they got bought out in the $40s I believe.

Ambassadors International (AMIE) - This one was a stock that didn't move much for a long time I bought in 2004 for $13. I wrote an article 3 years later finally selling after I recall it hitting a peak of $32 and coming back down and settling in the mid 20s.

OIL - My call to buy oil stocks back in 2005 in my inaugural post was fitting. Who would have known the ride this commodity was going to be on going forward. Oil Post

Clayton Williams (CWEI) - Based on my call in oil, this was the a stock bought at $42 and this went all the up into the $100s. This took years to develop but what a ride.

Collectors Universe (CLCT) - Here is the final and prime reason to not let go of a good thing. CLCT is not the best stock I've owned over time, but it was the most stressful one to own. I have owned this stock since 2007. CLCT POST The story behind this stock and why I still own is because of fundamentals. This stock was paying a healthy dividend $.20c a quarter back then and helped me build up my war chest. When the decline of 2008 hit this stock plummeted to $4 when management cut the dividend. The only thing that stopped me from taking a huge loss was reading the financial report that was put out by the company. The newly appointed CEO (because the company booted the last one) outlined that the company could afford to still issue a dividend however it is prudent to hold the cash during tough times. So I waited and waited through the darkest period in the market and true to his word they brought the dividend back when the stock was around $6 a share. So I was essentially buying the stock each quarter with the dividends and lowering the cost of what I had bought the stock in. So today even with the stock standing at mid $13s a share we are seeing a 25% increase.


This is why its important to take notes.



Now it is even more important to remember your blunders and boy have I had a few in my past. The easiest one I can remember is:

Zhone Technologies - I rode this stock from $1.10 to the $1.40s. Then the fundamentals fell and I waited to long. This cost me a bunch as I never sold until this stock hit .70c! Ouch, they didn't get approval to sell in a region in Europe which they thought they had locked down. So this taught me be careful with penny stocks and they are volatile and their business can swing based on contracts.


Not Shorting Housing - This would have made me a legend if I knew about shorting back in the day. This post proves why you should write down your thoughts...my first call on housing and I didn't nothing about it: Housing


Rite Aid (RAD): Just a horrible pick and I'm glad to notice that I wrote about getting out of this position and putting my capital to better use. Ha to bad that cash went to Zhone Tech. LOL


NOT Buying Apple (AAPL) - I wrote a piece on this based on a reader question, and never followed my own advice.

BUYING ETFs - I will write here. Do not buy ETFs as an investment. I would only use these purely as hedges in your portfolio. They are difficult securities to own due to their calculations and just because oil is going up doesn't mean the ETF is going to do up also. Also, anything super levered (Banks x3) is just not smart!!! Repeat do not buy unless you are hedging your portfolio!!!

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Portfolio Spring Cleaning...

It is technically still spring, right? I know judging from the mid 50 degree weather here in Chicago that this seems about right! Although I have been really busy I am starting to understand my investing habits a little. I think I tend to get more interested in the markets when volatility begins to pick up. This could be it or maybe I am finally drinking my own Kool-Aid and using the volatility to find deeply discounted bargains. Well, lets hope its the latter because I have been tuning in alot more lately. I continue to write about the extraordinary run that we've been on lately. It started earlier in the year when one of our largest holdings was liquidated due to a buyout of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI). I felt good here because we owned this position for almost two years, and held strong (thanks to the dividend) through the downturn and watched the company get bought out by Berkshire Hathaway.

Next, we've seen positive moves in the stocks we screened so diligently during the market downturn and decided to keep. I've gone with a concentrated portfolio and this has served well since the market stabilized. Besides BNI, my concentrated portfolio includes:

Radisys Corporation (NASDAQ: RSYS) - Largest Position
BNI - Second largest, liquidated
Collectors Universe (NASDAQ: CLCT) Now second largest position.
Visa (NYSE: V) - Liquidated most of this position for a nice gain; Still retain a minor position
Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) - New, small position

I'll keep beating the drum on RSYS as it went from $4 to now $10. It was a rough ride but we should be seeing some upside as they outsource their production model and grow with new products.

Collectors Universe is easily my second largest holding and has been on an outright tear and we owe thanks to new management cutting costs and reimplementing the dividend. This has brought investors searching for yield running to this stock. It has seen a run also from $4 to now roughly $14 bucks. A recent increase in the dividend yield now it paying out a whooping 30c a share!!! This healthy dividend allows me to continue to grow ownership in the country.

Visa was a classic buy during the downturn as we began accumulating a large amount of shares at roughly the IPO price. This was a no-brainer as the downside risk could not have been much lower than the levels that analysts had expected for a public offering. So at one point V was my fourth largest position behind RSYS, BNI and CLCT, because I had a conviction that V wouldn't slip much further. After a nice return, I sold most of V but retained a small portion which I still hold.

URB Update: Visa is experiencing some downside risk in their stock due to some recent legislation. The CEO recently spoke about the amendments passed in the Senate and the affects they could have. Being in the industry I need to better understand what's in the potential amendment but it seems like there could be some additional regulation around the "interchange" or swipe fees that are paid by merchants. I do believe this could have the most impact in their bottom line because this is how they make their money on a per transaction basis. I think investors are concerned with this and with the fact that a major part of the amendment is limiting the fees around debit and even credit transactions. This part would only impact V if their issues see a significant decrease in volume.

My recommendation is to wait for this legislation to play out. V and other networks will not be impacted as much as issuers are. Keep the stock if you own it and use the dividend to accumulate more of a position. I will be keeping the small position that I own, however for the tracking portfolio I will take some profits.

Boston Scientific - I like this sector but my research shows that there may be too much risk involved in holding this stock. I may look to stay in this sector by finding a stronger company that offers a dividend.

I am exhausted but here are the stocks that I am still watching:
  • Energy Partners
  • Legg Mason
  • Becton Dickinson
  • CapitalSource
  • Theravance
  • ViaSat
  • ADC Telecommunications
  • Solar Capital

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Back to Business...

If you haven't been paying attention lately it has definitely been back to business on Wall Street. Quietly the markets have roared up and surpassed the levels before the great recession of our times, started. We are roughly hovering around Dow 11000 and I am still interested because good companies are recovering and making money. If you go back in time, you will remember that I mentioned the good times will begin to roll again however we need to be better stop pickers this time around. In the past few years, we could afford to buy almost anything and watch it go up. Now we've learned that this is no longer the case a good pickers will be rewarded. I am not a great stock picker so I will say good and that is why I went through that cleansing period. I said if you don't see a stock as a long term hold and can't bear waiting for it to recover through the difficult times then get rid of it. And that what we did, now I would have loved to go back and hold on to my Microsoft holdings but besides that I was pleased with my focused results.

My main holdings continue to be:

Radisys - my largest position with is up fairly nicely. Since the hitting lows in the 4s this stock along with many others has rebounded and is roughly in the 9-10 range.

Collector's Universe my second largest position is poised and looking very strong. It has surprised be and scared me a bit by bouncing off of levels in the 4s and surprising coming in around $14 lately. I followed the advice of the greats and really read through their filings and statements when things were bad. As I've written in the past, they have a good representation of outside investors who have kept the company honest. They shedded non-performing parts of the business...the gem grading business if I recall and maintained their bread and butter...authentication of stuff. They also instituted expense saving processes and cut the dividend which hurt and sent investors scrambling away. But reading through the filing showed me they could continue to make the payments but wanted to reserve the cash to make it through the storm. And that they did, and when they reannounced a short while ago that they were bringing back their 25c dividend things were rolling for this company. Earnings looked good and I was buying more shares through my dividend reinvestment program. Now my holdings are going up even more and they are soaring. They just announced an increase in dividends which is bringing in more investors and we are loving it. Dividends have been increased to 30c and this company looks to be in a great position. I will need to be careful here but we are easily profitable on this trade and making steady dividends each quarter.

Burlington Northern - This is no longer a holding as we made a healthy return after the company was bought out and taken private.

I watching the usual suspects in my watch portfolio:

Legg Mason (LM)
Boston Scientific (BSX)
...and a few new ones:
ViaSat (VST)
Theravance (THX)

Keep u posted, Peace

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Wall Street Gold Medal

Going for gold might be replaced with the phrase 'Going for Phelps' one of these days. But if you are in the financial markets getting your Michael Phelps on has been difficult because the markets have been more volatile than a crazy ex-girlfriend. If you know where I am going with this she's up one day and then flying off the charts the next day in the other direction. The nice thing is I have been picking good girls lately as stocks and I haven't been whipped around as much as others have. If you followed our post just a month ago, I posted the steps to navigate these choppy markets --> http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/07/navigating-choppy-markets.html.

One again the market has had two sharp day to the downside, however most investors feeling the brunt of that pain are people exposed to the financial sector. After recent articles spooked the investment community, investors have been selling off banks and Fannie and Freddie rather quickly. There have been articles that have highlighted that another big bank may go under due to the ongoing credit crunch. Then Barron's pointed out that there is a likelihood that the government may have to bail out Fannie and Freddie which could leave current stakes invested in the government sponsored agencies worthless. All this proves is that financials suck and will continue to suck for the forseeable future. Why people choose to ignore that fact is beyond me. In your 401K plan or in your IRA, I would stick with less volatile investments at this point like the Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). This is still a solid pick because the Producers Price Index (PPI) was recently released and again inflation is steadily rising. And in my brokerage account I see myself steadily moving towards dividend yielding stocks, technology, transportation, and infrastructure plays.

And for a quick discussion on some of the stocks in my actual portfolio and/or in my stock tracker portfolio:

Collectors Universe (CLCT) - Although, you may want to smack this company like many others for spending without a conscious, they have announced a strategy to cut back on expenses now that their gem grading business is gaining traction. I hope that this business continues to take off like I observed after reading the last quarterly report and while we wait enjoy the 14% dividend this stock touts. I know the fear may be that the dividend will be cut due to such a high yield, but as long as the payments are made keep 'collecting' and participate in a dividend re-investment program (DRIP) to obtain more shares at these low prices.

Burlington Northern (BNI) - This transportation company has whethered the storm and continues to hold steady. Transports should benefit from the declining oil prices and stronger pricing power. I ain't selling until Buffet does.

Microsoft (MSFT) - Thank goodness the Yahoo mess is over and the world can move on and realize that MSFT is a world class technology company that continues to sit on an unbearable amount of cash. I would prefer that they start to increase the dividend amount so that I can get paid as I wait for great results from these guys. I would take dividends here and partipate in the DRIP.

Radisys (RSYS) - This stock reported great earnings and analysts raised the expected guidance for the next quarter by a whopping 9c! It holds steady on these tough days and usually outpaces the market on good days. It hit a bit of a rough patch after insiders sold in the last few weeks but the downside should ease and this stock should move higher.

EPD, ETE - This is a play on natural gas and I like the pipeline stocks in the future because there is good dividend insulation which should be re-invested for a great long term gain. The yield is around 7% here and is considered stable.

MOVE - This stock has rebounded from the dungeons of $2 after their earnings announcement and will move higher as real estate eventually rebounds way down the line from now.

China Digital (STV) - STV is like an ex-girlfriend and is more volatile than a Jerry Springer show. I think the international slowdown causes this stock to sag and the drop has been sharp. This stock rebounds when the market is positive and does so rather sharply. I would recommend adding to your positions slowly.

AK Steel (AKS) - I believe is still a solid company but get out of the way of the commodities. Its like trying to catch a falling knife and thats not too smart.

EWJ - Great play on the downturn in the international markets, especially Japan.

OPTR - Don't know a lot about this stock which met my screen. It was up sharply then retreated. I don't own this stock but would look to take profits after another quick run up.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

See How It's Done...

Then watch me do me. Hopefully I didn't lose you but what I am yapping about is that my plan is to stick to what I know and what I do best. That's keepin' it real 24/7 and my assessment on how to beat the market. I told you that 2008 was in for a rough ride. I still think I owe you a write up about my recession fears for the economy, so I will have to find my notes written on the train sometime and post them. So as usual when the market is going through its rough moments...I usually sit back and get my PAC-MAN on...and that's chomping data day after day to get an assessment on what the heck is going on out there. So for anyone that tunes in I apologize for the gap in postings but thats what I've been doing, camping out in the financial trenches. What do I do for these silent weeks and how can you get in on it:

~ Get your PAC-MAN on with lots of data from newspapers, online financial stories, and economic reports. Recent new stories that you should be aware of:
  • More weak data on the economy was just released (i.e., Manufacturing & Economic indicators)
  • The price of oil passed the infamous $100 a barrel mark
  • Reports show jobs are being lost (unemployment claims are lost), and companies are cutting their workforce
  • Gold is breaking through new levels
  • International stocks have suffered but have done well on days the US economy is down
~ Pay attention to earnings reports

  • Many companies are reporting that as they look through their crystal ball...it ain't looking pretty
  • Investors are hammering stocks that report a negative outlook going forward
  • The few good companies are getting rewarded for producing positive future earnings
So I try not to panic and reassess what this means to me. And what I got so far is the economy sucks, stocks are getting killed, and "sell the rips and buy the dips" (taken from an analyst on Fast Money on CNBC...I believe Jeff Macke). This has been consistent with my view of the market for the last 3-4 months so I am not making very many changes to what I do...Umma do Me (I'll explain in a sec). But I am listening to the last thing that I have learned and that's sell into positive gains in our stock positions and buy when good stocks tumble hard...and that's sell the rips, buy the dips. This lesson has been learned the hard way this year b/c we've experienced something kinda unusual and that is our companies are not being rewarded for good quarters, rather the analysts are focusing more on future outlooks. Radisys (NASDAQ: RSYS) reported blowout numbers but got hammered because their outlook was not going to be as good. The same can be said for Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX), the plastic flip flop maker. And the last thing I am noticing is that the poor performers are getting absolutely punished. AVID Technology (NASDAQ: AVID), Collectors Universe (NYSE: CLCT), and maybe even Zhone Techonologies (NASDAQ: ZHNE) have all seen death sentences.

Umma Do Me
I plan on doing me by evaluating my current portfolio and trying not to make drastic changes unless needed. I will sell the rips and buy the dips.
Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) - Railroads companies are hot, so I am not touching this position but watching it closely
RSYS - Should have sold before the earnings when it shot up to the $14 range. Got hammered after earnings by over 20% and I buying into the dips and creating a new price point @ the 52 week low. I like anything below $10.50 and placed my point @ $10.10
AVID - This stock also was running up before earnings if you recall hit $28, got crushed and saw lows of $17. I have bought in on the dip here and like the range of under $20, especially in the $19 range.
CLCT - Their earnings report was disappointing but I am still confident that private equity will closely watch the direction of this company. Also they have muscled the company into paying a handsome dividend to shareholders. So each quarter we are getting almost a handsome check to offset some of the losses @ almost a 8-10% yield on an annual basis (Most companies yield 1-2%) So buying into the dip will be difficult here. I bought in at $9.50 but recommend $9 or a really aggressive stance here and see if this touches the 8 dollar range.
ZHNE - Gets the heartburn of the year award because just last week it shot up to $1.18 and we were in very good shape. Then in one day the market took 20% cut into the stock. There have been active buys into this stock and if it gets to levels of $1.01 or lower I am a buyer again.

Disclosure: I own RSYS, and rebought RSYS at stated price point, CLCT own and rebought, AVID own and rebout, ZHNE own, CROX I do not own

So people ask what am I going to do, and I keep it simple: "UMMA DO ME" (courtesy of ROCKO):

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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Out of Sync...

This posting should be easy. Technically it was written on January 17, but it saved away on another laptop so this is the first opportunity that I have had to post my thoughts. It goes a little something like this:

Yep this year my goal is to sync up my recommendations with the handy little portfolio tracker that you see to your right of my site. This will help you understand how our recommendations are doing. The hard part is that it will never completely be accurate because the market is all about timing. When I recommend price points to you, I go out there and put a limit order to buy that stock, which helps me not have to follow its every move or make spontaneous buy or sell trades.

Limit Trade Definition: Instruction to execute an order for a stock only at a specified price or better. The broker continues the order until a specified date or until the customer terminates it. Assume an investor places a limit order to buy at $10 or less a stock now selling at $11. If the stock goes up to $20, the broker will not execute a buy order; if it falls to $10, the broker will execute a buy order immediately. (Courtesy of allbusiness.com)

Great examples:

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) – I recommended selling this stock here on my post but it remained on the tracking tool to see if my recommendation to sell if for a small loss was correct. And that appears to be a good decision, we sold RAD for a loss because we didn’t believe the fundamentals were there and the stock ended up plummeting even further. So that is an example of how the tracker can be used to display my thoughts, even though the losses appear much worse. Don't believe I recommended selling, use the search tool and look for all postings about Rite Aid or RAD.

Radisys (NASDAQ: RSYS) – This stock is an example of what I hope to be able to do from here on out when I recommend a stock. I post it here @ URBANOMICS and then buy/track it on my stock tracking tool. NOTICE, my price point for RSYS is $12.25 and I will place a limit order for this price until it fills (See limit order definition above). However, because the stock tracking tool does not accept limit orders I have to buy it at whatever price is available at the time (which I believe was $12.38).
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New Recommendation – China Digital Holdings (NYSE: STV) is a BUY

China Digital Holdings (NYSE: STV) This is a great play, where I can’t take credit for finding this stock. Disclosure: This stock was not produced by my stock picking strategy, therefore I don’t have a lot of info which came as a recommendation from a friend who has been following the stock more closely. It’s Initial Public Offering (IPO), or the first sale of a corporation's stock to the public, was last year and it took off. But when the market cooled this stock cooled even faster. So my friend brought the stock to my attention and as my strategy often calls I began reading the chart of STV to identify a floor or resistance level for the stock. An easy floor if you believe the stock will rise and continue to do well is the 52 week low. I researched STV and found that the 52 week briefly brushed $20.64 yesterday and after looking at previous closing prices and intraday lows I developed my price point of $21.50.

Collectors Universe (NYSE: CLCT) – This a stock I have recommended in the past and they offer a huge dividend payout at the tune of 8%. I am re-recommending CLCT at 11.01 to take advantage of dollar cost averaging down, the dividend and potential growth.