Happy New Years

Happy New Years from URBANOMICS

I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Years. To all the first time investors, part-time investors, or people interested in their financial well being: Welcome to the site that explains everything financial in an easy to understand format.  We have it all covered from how to check your credit for free, tax advice, and where to invest in the complex stock market. 

What's Up With The Economy, The Deficit...

That is a really good question, "What's Up With the Economy?"!  The best analogy is the economy is sorta like a really nice business train that is slowly chugging along and starting to lose passengers at each stop.  I think this is an accurate picture because the data is definitely mixed, showing corporate businesses are doing quite well and chugging along, like the train.  The passengers being lost at each stop are comparable to middle-class Americans that are being negatively impacted by: 1) high gas & food prices, 2) declining housing prices, 3) still high unemployment numbers.  And the biggest problem is JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, or the lack thereof.  Jobs are so critical because they give Americans confidence that the economy is getting better when they see their neighbors getting up and going to work, coming home with bags of groceries, and investing in their homes.  So who is focusing on getting more Americans jobs? That's the question that needs to be asked of everyone from the president and his administration, to your senators, then your local congressmen, and also of the companies that are doing well.  Every moment should be spent on turning the dismal job scenario around and we've seen our politicians come up with some solutions but not nearly enough.  The formula is not that difficult as it usually comes down to stimulating Americans and stimulating the companies who are tasked with hiring more Americans.  Its a shame the debate in Washington is whittled down to spending versus tax cuts, but that has been the case.  Last time I checked both scenarios cost taxpayers money but are needed to bring this economy back to life.

Competing Interests...

The current economic environment and its effects over the last few years has made the competing interests of various groups more pronounced during these times. This is why I wanted to write a post about competing interests. Recently, I was reading about the self interests of people as it relates to the low interest rates, which have been rock bottom for a long time now. I was surprised when I learned that savers and risk adverse people (think older adults nearing retirement) are not too excited about the prolonged low interest rates which are not earning them much money on their safe assets in their savings and retirement accounts. Even though the general thought is low interest rates are helpful in stabilizing and spurring growth in the economy, some competing interests say enough is enough. They are saying this because they would prefer to go back to living off higher interest rates. As I begin my data dump of thoughts for the month of April, I find myself torn like many of the elderly who likely want the economy to do well but want their interest income to jump back to life.

March Matrix Notes

I could do a follow up on why I'm a MACROVALUEQUANT, but who has time, its time to unload my thoughts and unplug from the matrix. I do a lot of reading on the train and listening to the radio and have started taking notes. In the past few weeks, I've tuned into the following discussions and readings:

Ray Dalio (find his discussion on CNBC)
Mr Dalio is the hedge fund titan who runs Bridgewater Associates and rarely makes tv appearances (I heard). After a few moments of defending his unusual methods running his firm, the man behind the world's largest hedge fund was very open about the cycle of leveraging and deleveraging and where the US is at in its cycle after the crisis. He talked about the following subjects:

He noted US Equities are cheap and will benefit from currency devaluations
The money flows will benefit equities
Portfolios are not properly weighted, too much in dollar denominated currencies
Gold is a currency that many are underweight
Stimulus will last through the 4th quarter, and private credit growth will be needed