My Predictions On the Upcoming War... (Free Picks Included)

Well I had a very interesting discussion last week on wars...and that was in a bar, so I figured I'd keep going I guess.  I could talk about North Korea but I'd rather talk about a different possible war.  I started off believing that only athletes and musicians "make it rain" and usually in dimly lit places :)

At Urbanomics, we don't leave you out in the cold, here is a quick definition from URBANDICTIONARY.COM:

Make It Rain: When you're in the club with a stack, and you throw the money up in the air... The effect is that it seems to be raining money. 

Then, I learned about Central Bankers around the world and their endless access to cash and they put guys like Lil Wayne, Adam 'Pacman' Jones, and P. Diddy to shame.  Central Bankers (around the world) are the equivalent to the US version of Ben Bernanke, the head of the Federal Reserve.  Earlier this year, I wrote about Ben and how some very smart investors (see David Tepper, Ray Dalio) were telling us that when the Fed 'makes it rain' it's our job to pick up the money and buy stocks.  We did just that and we've rode the stock market ALL THE WAY up to all time highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP500.

Here is where the war begins...other countries don't usually like when one country prints money because their goods become cheaper and the people across the world begin buying those cheaper goods and so far this has helped the US economy. So guess what they in turn do...THAT'S RIGHT, they sometimes do the exact same thing.  So who is ready for battle, see JAPAN.  They have an official that has promised to 'make it rain' at levels that only we've seen in here in America.  Here's why I find this interesting...and how we make money:

Dow at 14000 (Pt.3) - The Markets Will Go Lower!?!

If you've followed my last few posts its very clear by now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is trading right around 14,000.  The Dow is a broad representation of many companies throughout the US and is often used as a indicator by many investors. These levels are significant because they are very near all-time highs and more importantly a representation of how far we've come. If we go back four years ago, the DOW was at roughly 8900 and thanks to the American people, companies, government we've bounced back almost 50%.

  In PART 1 of this series (Dow @ 14000), I tried to show you how information available to the public can be used to develop your direction on where the markets are headed.  In short you should always be invested in the stock market but when the market is cheap you should invest more and when its expensive you should pull back some.  So clicking on the link above helps to show that through a little research the average investor can pick up on some signals that assist us in knowing when to buy stocks.  And who better to get some tips from then billionaire investor, David Tepper.  

So we participated in this nice run up in the markets, however; the REAL question is... will stocks continue to go up??  I guess the first thing to point out is there will be a correction! A correction in this case will be a pull back or a move down in the stock market. Simply put, a correction will likely happen because the markets have moved up in a straight line.  And think about the markets like you think about dieting...it never goes in a straight line (no one loses all of the weight all at once).  There will be really good weeks and a few bad ones and while the markets are getting healthy and losing the weight but they haven't had any setbacks.  You can almost hang your hat on the fact that there may be a pullback because so many investors are talking about the need for one to justify that this market is for real (one with fluctuations) and not just some type of fad (like with diets).

So now its time to listen to some really smart people who believe the market(s) may go lower.  First up is Jeffery Gundlach who predicts that another crisis is coming to world markets who will try to stall by pumping money (see 'Making It Rain')...however; this story likely leads to inflation and possible default for some countries. I've read the following link and found his points very interesting:

Gundlach's Negative View On Markets

Now that you've read the article along with me, I find it interesting that Gundlach wants to buy the following hard assets: 

• Gemstones,
• Art, and 
• Commercial Real Estate

When it comes to stocks he'll be investing in the following types of equities:

• Chinese stocks
• Nat Gas producers
• Gold Mining stocks

The next investor that believes that the picture is also a little murky is Marc Faber.  Please click on the link below to hear why Marc thinks the markets are due for a pullback:

What do you believe?!? If you feel that it's intuitive that markets can't just go directly up then you may be in the camp for a pullback because that is natural and healthy.  So you could benefit by selling some of your winners and/or by waiting for a pullback to buy more stocks.

Dow At 14000 (Pt.2) - The Markets Are Going Higher!?!

You heard it here, the markets are going higher!  Okay that was in my best Jim Cramer voice.  In reality, I am actually a little nervous about the markets.  I guess I start to get nervous when family and friends usually begin to take more interest in stocks.  Usually by the time my sister is talking about the markets it means that its probably moved significantly HIGHER and she along with other non-investors are late to the party.  If you followed my last post on the Dow @ 14000 I gave you a video from billionaire investor, David Tepper.  That video was from September 24, 2010 and in that video he indicated WHY the markets were going to go up. Since September 2010 until now, the markets have soared up over 31%.  Yes believe it or not, I actually listened to this video when Tepper made his revelation that markets would go up because the Federal Reserve was continuing quantitative easing (QE). I won't bore you with what QE means, but my best analogy is he was saying the Fed is 'Making It Rain' in the club.  And think about what happens to the person that benefits when its raining money in the club...the next day they go shopping.  Well when the Fed 'Makes It Rain' on our economy guess what goes up, yes: STOCKS.  Which is why he was telling us to buy back then.  So in my mind...if you weren't picking up stocks back then you are a little late to the party and you do need to be mindful of this.

The next question is where do we go from here at Dow 14000.  Well listen to our friend David Tepper on December 17, 2012 about where he thinks the markets are headed now.


Listen for the following beginning at 2:02 in the video:
- He talks about tailwinds or good things going for the economy (Housing, Car Sales)
- There is 1 Trillion Dollars Worth of Stimulus Coming from the Fed
- The Fed will keep it up until the Unemployment (Jobs) Rate Drops to 6.5% Target

I would say he is in the camp of markets going higher until the Fed stops. And considering that the Job Rate is at 7.9%, maybe the markets go HIGHER.  But one thing I've learned is markets don't go straight up...so tread carefully.  But he's not alone, my ears perked up when I heard that Ray Dalio shared a similar point of view...stay tuned.

Dow at 14000 (Pt.1) - Are You Too Late for The Party!?!

For the first time since 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed above the 14,000 range.  This range puts the Dow near its all time high of 14,165.  You know you're getting old when you remember where you were...when something happened years ago. I remembered the last time we where at these levels and here was the brief post I wrote about it:

Dow 14,000 in 2007

Well I took the market for granted the last time it reached these levels but this time I understand how long its been and the gravity of what it means.

Are You Late For the Party??

My initial thoughts are yes! I get a little nervous when people that don't normally bring up the stock market in normal conversations start to talk about their portfolios and the need to get in before they miss out.  That usually means its already too late.  My goal is to attempt to check my emotions to the side and I usually like to buy the markets when things have gotten pretty bad.  Its not very easy to do and sometimes you have to stomach all the critics and naysayers that say the end will never come.  I bought my first condo in 2010 and the housing market in the Midwest had been plummeting for the last few years but I did my research and truly believed a bottom was very near and the decline, which was needed, was near the end of running its course.  If you buy then (buying @ discount) you enjoy out sized gains in the future.  I navigated the markets as well as an amateur investor could have done at the time (took my share of lumps) but and pulled a significant amount of funds into safer investments.  After 2008-9 when we were calling for the world to come to an end, we needed some confidence to help reiterate when to get back in. I was very hesitant to increasing my exposure to stocks but listening to one investor in late 2010 gave many firmer ground to wade back into the markets.  So think about that question in the future as you continue to invest thoughtfully during periods where its bleak or really booming.   

Help In Getting the Timing Right

I love when investors lay their points out very quickly and in 2010 the simple points of David Tepper, a billionaire hedge fund investor, allowed many to understand why we should be in the markets. If you haven't listened to the points laid out by David, you can find the video and excerpts from that discussion here:

David Tepper Rally Video

This simple excerpt from David Tepper's discussion makes it clear (from CNBC):

"Either the economy is going to get better by itself in the next three months...What assets are going to do well? Stocks are going to do well, bonds won't do so well, gold won't do as well," he said. "Or the economy is not going to pick up in the next three months and the Fed is going to come in with QE.

"Then what's going to do well? Everything, in the near term (though) not bonds...So let's see what I got—I got two different situations: One, the economy gets better by itself, stocks are better, bonds are worse, gold is probably worse. The other situation is the fed comes in with money."

I'll conclude with my thoughts that you may be a little late to the party because David laid out the case that (1) the economy will improve and stocks do well or (2) things won't go well and the Fed will inject money (QE) making stocks do well. An indication that we should should have been in stocks enjoying the rally up until this point.  However, my next few posts will share the views of both sides who argue that from here we go HIGHER...and those that definitely think the markets go LOWER.

Is Your Portfolio Up...

Dow Above 13,000 / NASDAQ 3,000
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index that is made of 30 stocks which are a general representation of US economy.  The index consists of companies like McDonalds, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble.  The Dow being above 13K is significant because some consumers like you and me are feeling a little bit better as we watch our collective investment wallets head in the right direction.  If you are invested in the markets through a personal account, 401K, IRA or some other investment vehicle chances are they are all doing better.  To put this in perspective the last time the Dow was at this level was in May 2008.  Or this may help, when things were really bad a few years ago the Dow was at 6,547 on March 9, 2009.  That was four years ago the stock market was where it is today, so we've come along way.  I almost forgot the NASDAQ, which is an index tracking primarily technology stocks.  The NASDAQ briefly hit 3,000 a level it hadn't seen in about 12 years!!

URB Investment Tips: My take away is that this is proof as why you usually want to stay invested in the markets and to not be scared away by the big swings.  I also want to mention that this is a good time to cash in a few of your BIG winners.  In short, I've been impressed by the momentum of jobs and have enjoyed this ride up in the stock market. I will be watching closely because I think we've come along way and worked hard to get here and I think the market may take a deep breathe and pull back (i.e., decline in price) a few months from now.

Here are a few themes from my latest quarterly stock picks:

~ Beaten down stocks
~ Pharmaceutical stocks
~ Gold Miners stocks

Stay tuned, they'll be released shortly.

Its A Blizzard In Chicago...

It is literally white out conditions here in Chicago and I now know what a true blizzard looks and feels like. And like the snow, I'll tell you that its tough to see through the market right now. I am impressed with the run the market has been on and it has broken through the all too important psychological barrier of 12,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I am cautious as most of the stocks that I am analyzing appear priced for perfection. And the hardest thing to do sometimes is to be idle and have a little dry powder.

Here are a few stocks I am keeping an eye on but even they are pushing higher very quickly. Here are a few selections for free, but remember I usually like a little safety before I enter the position:

EXAR Corp (EXAR)
American Superconductor (AMSC)

Welcome President Barack Obama...

Please join me in welcoming our 44th President of the United States of America! I am elated that we have a brilliant, young, motivating commander in chief to lead us our country. We must also realize that the odds are not in his favor as the economy continues to purge itself from years of toxic mortgage assets, greedy investment schemes gone wrong and overall lack of confidence. I realized that I too for a brief second thought that the market would forget all of its ills and start fresh, sorta like America is starting anew. However, the market reared its ugly head the day of the inauguration when we witnessed the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop below 8000!

But I am optimistic that a new direction is in store for us all and even the markets. Regulation, transparency, and sharing the economic pie are some of the ingredients that I would serve up during this time of weariness. So President Obama, good luck and if you need any advice...just call.

Been Busy...

Some would say being right on the money. Well lets look back at over four months ago, when we told you to re-allocate your portfolios because the worst ain't here yet. And what have we seen is that are call is right on. The Dow has continued to plummet to the level I thought we wouldn't hit for awhile. and that is roughly around Dow 8000. This is a compelling moment because months ago I said that I would recommend that we all start inching back into the market, but at this point the news continues to be bad. Just searching articles on the internet you may come across these themes: Banks Need the rest of the TARP Bailout - Citigroup is selling their brokerage unit! - Bank of America is showing signs of cracking Retailers are not looking good. - Even Walmart sales are declining - Circuit City can't find a buyer and is liquidating all their stores!! Unemployment rates continue to rise - GE Capital is set to shed 11000 jobs Downgrades send stocks to their 52week/all-time/all world lows There is no strategy when the headlines read like this. The only thing is to stay the course with the consistent message that we've had before. I repeat I am and have recommended that you are completely out of the stock market and fully allocated to Treasurys and cash assets. This is especially true for your 401K portfolio because it primary purpose is capital preservation...not appreciation. A portion of your portfolio needs to be exposed to the market and I recommend that you have your own trading account where you can DO IT YOURSELF (DIY)...I don't need Bernie Madoff or any other scandalous investors out there losing my money...when I can do that on my own. It this portfolio you should be shorting more that buying things. Find attractive price points (see previous posts on price points) for both buys and shorts:

SHORTS:
- SSG: ETF that shorts the Semiconductor Sector
- KBE: EFT that shorts the Retail Banking Sector
- Also short the retail, and credit sensitive sectors
BUYS: - BBY: Best Buy is primed for increased earnings now that Circuit City is going BANKRUPT
- V: VISA is down towards their Initial Public Offering (IPO) again after being downgraded

I'll be back to update this post later

Bailout / TARP Abandoned

Here goes another I told you so. The bailout money allocated to buy distressed assets was abandoned by the Treasury Department. I wrote here early, that this program was flawed for so many reasons. The biggest reason: "There was no way they could value the bad assets, manage them, or dispose of the assets correctly!!!"



Fundamentally I agree with the fact that a bailout is needed but I have noted that the government needs to address both the supply and demand side of our economy. On the Supply side, I don't mind the Treasury department injecting cash into banks but I do think that one of the strange things is that but private investors like Warren Buffet are brokering better deals then the GOVERNMENT is. Part of the problem is no oversight or poor oversight because these banks are not lending to the public! This would begin to address the demand side, however the banks are getting the cheapest money ever made available and using it to MAKE INVESTMENTS like buying other banks...SEE PNC Bank's acquisition of National City.


What the Government Should Require:

- All common stock dividends should be taken away
- Force banks to lend to consumer
- Punitive terms of the banks (firing managers)
- Goverment must get Main Street bank on their feet through mortgage adjustments, incentives for homebuyers to acquire homes, addressing unemployment, and some sort of stimulus (tax cuts/credits)



Where do we go from here:

The markets will continue to trend lower for remain in a trading pattern. When I first spoke of actions to take to address the direction of the markets I recommended most folks get a majority of their money out of the market and into bonds. Then the Dow Jones Industrial Average (basket of the 30 large stocks representing the US economy) was trading around 9000 and my guess was that we would head lower and test recession like lows. The last time we could compare lows like this was in roughly 2002-2003 when the market hit lows of roughly 7700 (I believe). My assumption is that this will be the prudent time to begin to reallocate your portfolio back into the market. Again that is an assumption because I don't really think that this last time can be effectively compared to now. We are facing a local recession, rising probability of a global recession (in most areas except for China), and if these conditions exist we could be facing a depression due to deflationary pressure. This could be the one area that I initially got wrong...I thought we would be facing inflationary pressures or rising costs but that appears to be far down the line. Right now deflation is running wild and that is evident is the sharp decline of prices across the board. Gas is down from $4.00 to now roughly $2.00 and everything is falling with it, stocks included. If this trend continues deflation could lead to an extended recession and Dow 7700 may not even be a legitimate floor for the market.

Aug 28 - Urb Play of the Day

Have you witnessed greatness? How about Jordan... his "Airness" has had numerous moments where he has dazzled us. Taking off from the free throw line and flying through the air... his ability to defy gravity has often left me speechless.

Then you have the Michael Jordan of the investment world, Warren Buffet. His investment company Berkshire Hathaway continues to amaze us with timely investments that dazzle us with their ability to find companies with hidden value right underneath our noses.

Finally, some say I have come along and given hope where there was once despair. I have brought two worlds together, that some say couldn't exist. I know its difficult mantaining my natural swagger and love for hiphop and still dominating in the investment world. It's kinda like P-Diddy being your stockbroker you wonder could it ever be possible.

Now whenever I have a big investment, I have always told you to "Back That Thang Up"...ala Juvenile and buy tons of this stock. Well, I am releasing my Soulja Boy pick and telling you to "Crank That" and "Superman this Stock". I know... some faithful readers have been lost in translation but here we go. Crank That is my new reference loading up on a stock that I absolutely love. I am gonna superman this stock and give it a rating worthy of super hero status.

URB PLAY OF THE DAY:

"CRANK THAT" PICK -----> BURLINGTON NORTHERN SANTA FE (BNI)

I recommended this stock almost two weeks ago on strong momentum at the time. This was a time when most folks thought the sky was falling because of the subprime jitters in the market. The Dow went from an all time high at 14000 (See Dow Take a Bow) to skidding belowing 13000 in a matter of weeks (See The Dow and Beyonce's Fall). I still believe that the financial sector is in trouble but I won't rest until I find the best stocks out there. And boy have we found one. Go back to my post two weeks ago and you will see why I love BNI (See Balling on Wall Street Shopping List) . I disclosed then that I recently bought the stock at $79 and in the face of a deteriorating market watched it shrink down to $76, where I loaded up again. It was hard decision to make at the time but I played Soulja Boy's "Crank That" and it got me through the rough times. I was looking at my screens again tonight and all I can say is I love BNI, like a FAT KID LOVES CAKE. I promise you this stock opens higher tomorrow morning on more momentum.

And you keep asking who the heck is Soulja Boy and what does he have to do with my picks, well check him out here: Soulja Boy "Crank That"

Dow take a Bow

Ok maybe more like a curtain call because the Dow Jow industrials has been on a tear. And for the first time ever, the DJ closed above 14000. It was just 3 months ago where the Dow was at 13000, so to put it simply that was a big move. Has this affected our readers here at Urbanomics...you bet.

Urbanomics Flashback:
I'm taking you back to a 2005 article I wrote. What names have we told you to buy, how about Microsoft which hit a 5 year high Don't believe me check out our article here: http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2005/09/dynasty.html

Urb Homeruns
Check out this list by typing in the name or ticker in the search toolbar on your upper left hand corner and see for yourself how far they have come.

Avid Technology (AVID)
Collectors Universe (CLCT)
Maximus (MMS)

Urb Recent Picks
Our latest picks are in the black and we are seeing great momentum action
South Texas Oil Company (STXX.OB) - This is a low volume stock so like the rides at Six Flags you've got to hold onto your stomach. We've seen this stock dip to $8.95...do we panic, sorry real playa's don't flinch. This closed today at $9.33 and I am looking for company events to propel this stock over $10.
Radisys (RSYS) - Four business trading days ago this stock was at $12.41 and now they have topped $13. With earnings being released on July 26, I am hoping for a great momentum push next week.

Urb Misses
What did we miss this week: Applied Micro Devices (AMD); Intel, the chipmaker ripped through earnings and AMD would have been a great play today knowing that Intel performed well.

Urb Radar
These stocks are on my radar:
Cabela's (CAB)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Rural/Metro Corp (RURL)