Dow at 14000 (Pt.3) - The Markets Will Go Lower!?!

If you've followed my last few posts its very clear by now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is trading right around 14,000.  The Dow is a broad representation of many companies throughout the US and is often used as a indicator by many investors. These levels are significant because they are very near all-time highs and more importantly a representation of how far we've come. If we go back four years ago, the DOW was at roughly 8900 and thanks to the American people, companies, government we've bounced back almost 50%.

  In PART 1 of this series (Dow @ 14000), I tried to show you how information available to the public can be used to develop your direction on where the markets are headed.  In short you should always be invested in the stock market but when the market is cheap you should invest more and when its expensive you should pull back some.  So clicking on the link above helps to show that through a little research the average investor can pick up on some signals that assist us in knowing when to buy stocks.  And who better to get some tips from then billionaire investor, David Tepper.  

So we participated in this nice run up in the markets, however; the REAL question is... will stocks continue to go up??  I guess the first thing to point out is there will be a correction! A correction in this case will be a pull back or a move down in the stock market. Simply put, a correction will likely happen because the markets have moved up in a straight line.  And think about the markets like you think about dieting...it never goes in a straight line (no one loses all of the weight all at once).  There will be really good weeks and a few bad ones and while the markets are getting healthy and losing the weight but they haven't had any setbacks.  You can almost hang your hat on the fact that there may be a pullback because so many investors are talking about the need for one to justify that this market is for real (one with fluctuations) and not just some type of fad (like with diets).

So now its time to listen to some really smart people who believe the market(s) may go lower.  First up is Jeffery Gundlach who predicts that another crisis is coming to world markets who will try to stall by pumping money (see 'Making It Rain')...however; this story likely leads to inflation and possible default for some countries. I've read the following link and found his points very interesting:

Gundlach's Negative View On Markets

Now that you've read the article along with me, I find it interesting that Gundlach wants to buy the following hard assets: 

• Gemstones,
• Art, and 
• Commercial Real Estate

When it comes to stocks he'll be investing in the following types of equities:

• Chinese stocks
• Nat Gas producers
• Gold Mining stocks

The next investor that believes that the picture is also a little murky is Marc Faber.  Please click on the link below to hear why Marc thinks the markets are due for a pullback:

What do you believe?!? If you feel that it's intuitive that markets can't just go directly up then you may be in the camp for a pullback because that is natural and healthy.  So you could benefit by selling some of your winners and/or by waiting for a pullback to buy more stocks.

Dow At 14000 (Pt.2) - The Markets Are Going Higher!?!

You heard it here, the markets are going higher!  Okay that was in my best Jim Cramer voice.  In reality, I am actually a little nervous about the markets.  I guess I start to get nervous when family and friends usually begin to take more interest in stocks.  Usually by the time my sister is talking about the markets it means that its probably moved significantly HIGHER and she along with other non-investors are late to the party.  If you followed my last post on the Dow @ 14000 I gave you a video from billionaire investor, David Tepper.  That video was from September 24, 2010 and in that video he indicated WHY the markets were going to go up. Since September 2010 until now, the markets have soared up over 31%.  Yes believe it or not, I actually listened to this video when Tepper made his revelation that markets would go up because the Federal Reserve was continuing quantitative easing (QE). I won't bore you with what QE means, but my best analogy is he was saying the Fed is 'Making It Rain' in the club.  And think about what happens to the person that benefits when its raining money in the club...the next day they go shopping.  Well when the Fed 'Makes It Rain' on our economy guess what goes up, yes: STOCKS.  Which is why he was telling us to buy back then.  So in my mind...if you weren't picking up stocks back then you are a little late to the party and you do need to be mindful of this.

The next question is where do we go from here at Dow 14000.  Well listen to our friend David Tepper on December 17, 2012 about where he thinks the markets are headed now.


Listen for the following beginning at 2:02 in the video:
- He talks about tailwinds or good things going for the economy (Housing, Car Sales)
- There is 1 Trillion Dollars Worth of Stimulus Coming from the Fed
- The Fed will keep it up until the Unemployment (Jobs) Rate Drops to 6.5% Target

I would say he is in the camp of markets going higher until the Fed stops. And considering that the Job Rate is at 7.9%, maybe the markets go HIGHER.  But one thing I've learned is markets don't go straight up...so tread carefully.  But he's not alone, my ears perked up when I heard that Ray Dalio shared a similar point of view...stay tuned.

Dow at 14000 (Pt.1) - Are You Too Late for The Party!?!

For the first time since 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed above the 14,000 range.  This range puts the Dow near its all time high of 14,165.  You know you're getting old when you remember where you were...when something happened years ago. I remembered the last time we where at these levels and here was the brief post I wrote about it:

Dow 14,000 in 2007

Well I took the market for granted the last time it reached these levels but this time I understand how long its been and the gravity of what it means.

Are You Late For the Party??

My initial thoughts are yes! I get a little nervous when people that don't normally bring up the stock market in normal conversations start to talk about their portfolios and the need to get in before they miss out.  That usually means its already too late.  My goal is to attempt to check my emotions to the side and I usually like to buy the markets when things have gotten pretty bad.  Its not very easy to do and sometimes you have to stomach all the critics and naysayers that say the end will never come.  I bought my first condo in 2010 and the housing market in the Midwest had been plummeting for the last few years but I did my research and truly believed a bottom was very near and the decline, which was needed, was near the end of running its course.  If you buy then (buying @ discount) you enjoy out sized gains in the future.  I navigated the markets as well as an amateur investor could have done at the time (took my share of lumps) but and pulled a significant amount of funds into safer investments.  After 2008-9 when we were calling for the world to come to an end, we needed some confidence to help reiterate when to get back in. I was very hesitant to increasing my exposure to stocks but listening to one investor in late 2010 gave many firmer ground to wade back into the markets.  So think about that question in the future as you continue to invest thoughtfully during periods where its bleak or really booming.   

Help In Getting the Timing Right

I love when investors lay their points out very quickly and in 2010 the simple points of David Tepper, a billionaire hedge fund investor, allowed many to understand why we should be in the markets. If you haven't listened to the points laid out by David, you can find the video and excerpts from that discussion here:

David Tepper Rally Video

This simple excerpt from David Tepper's discussion makes it clear (from CNBC):

"Either the economy is going to get better by itself in the next three months...What assets are going to do well? Stocks are going to do well, bonds won't do so well, gold won't do as well," he said. "Or the economy is not going to pick up in the next three months and the Fed is going to come in with QE.

"Then what's going to do well? Everything, in the near term (though) not bonds...So let's see what I got—I got two different situations: One, the economy gets better by itself, stocks are better, bonds are worse, gold is probably worse. The other situation is the fed comes in with money."

I'll conclude with my thoughts that you may be a little late to the party because David laid out the case that (1) the economy will improve and stocks do well or (2) things won't go well and the Fed will inject money (QE) making stocks do well. An indication that we should should have been in stocks enjoying the rally up until this point.  However, my next few posts will share the views of both sides who argue that from here we go HIGHER...and those that definitely think the markets go LOWER.