Is the Stock Market "Weak"? or should you be "Right Here" (SWV Mix)

I get so weak in the knees I can hardly speak.

I lose all control and something takes over me.

In a daze and it's so amazing, it's not a phase.

I want you to stay with me, by my side.

I swallow my pride, your love is so sweet.

It knocks me right off of my feet.

I can't explain why your loving makes me weak.

    ~ Artist: SWV     Song: "Weak " 

I was jamming to some classics and decided I needed the help of SWV to describe how I and many others feel about the economy, stocks, and life right now. Yes, only the classic hits of SWV and that soulful rhythm and blues (R+B) sound of the 90s can really assist in what this market is doing and how it's making people feel. I won't spend much time on the backdrop but if you need a reminder I tried to signal what was to come back in March. Remember it didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the impacts of COVID-19 were going to be devastating. These simple facts were in front of us at the time:

- China and the Asia Pacific region had been shut down since early January and even Chinese New Year was canceled (something reported on each day from Beijing by Eunice Yoon and others)

- The market prior to COVID-19 was already near record levels. We hit those levels in my opinion around 2017 when I changed my investment style to ensure I wasn't holding stocks too long (which is contrary to what I believe in). While the market IMO wasn't overvalued, we were in the longest bull market ever recorded (if history serves me correct). Since then, the market continued to melt-up and made us weak in the knees that we could hardly speak. Truss 2019 was a great year, remember: Tesla, Okta, Sprint, Symantec Norton Lifelock, Audentes, Celgene. How good, I got rid of Tesla and Okta way to early. At the time, I was riding great gains, however; they continued to skyrocket further. I feel weak. To put things further into perspective Tesla and Okta aside...the remaining companies I named above ALL got bought out easily making 2019 one of my best years on record investment wise (and the worst personally as I lost my father).

- Finally, I was concerned about the US response to COVID-19. If you flip back to my March posts, I highlighted scenarios that are now playing out when there isn't much of a plan and poor tone at the top leadership --- I said you will get to a situation where US states would start to draw lines in the sand and say citizens from other states cannot cross state lines without strict conditions. Recently, the state of New York told people from 31 states you must quarantine for 14 days (IMO a statement basically saying don't bother coming). I was concerned about the US Lil Nas X culture of "Can't Nobody Tell Me Nothing" to an airborne respiratory disease... who knew that would seriously lead to daily fights about whether masks should be mandated.

So if the market is so SWV "Weak", why is the Nasdaq hitting highs everyday and my portfolio and your retirement plan feeling so good. Well that's where SWV "Right Here" comes in. The Federal Reserve and even Congress has been right here with STIMULUS. I don't have a running total but over $7 Trillion with a T has been pumped into the economy after it began tanking in March.  

Lately, there seems to be

Some insecurities

About the way I feel

Where I wanna be

Boy, you know it's with you

No one can do

The things you do to me

                                                                    ~ Artist: SWV     Song: "Right Here" 

haha The Federal Reserve came out swinging boy. Go back and look at the March lows and damn there were some insecurity about the way we felt. The things you do to us...well here is a list:

- Unemployment + $600

- Federal Moratorium on Foreclosures

- Stimulus Check

- Loans to Small Businesses (PPP)

- Economic Disaster Loans

- Purchasing Company Bonds

- $25 Billion Dollar Bailout to the Airlines

Was this response unexpected. Hell No, just look back to the Federal Reserve did back in the 2008 Financial Crisis. I wrote about it here and it even got its own name: the Tepper rally, for my dawg Billionaire David Tepper who laid out the investment thesis --- You DO NOT fight the Federal Reserve when they come in the big guns...they can print money longer than you can stay liquid (if you were betting the market would fall). And that's exactly what happened...they came in with helicopter money, making it rain.  Don't knock my hustle, read here how a strategy from a decade ago prepared us for what to expect:  Tepper - Don't Fight The Fed Reminder

I hope this wasn't complicated but I think you now get how to position yourself going into the end of year and 2021. As my friend said it best after reading my posts, the Federal Reserve and others won't let the machine fail (and this is capitalism👌).  Fast forward to today, the extra $600 unemployment boost IS NOT being renewed. A second stimulus check is coming but smaller and I believe going out to less people. The Federal Moratorium on foreclosures has been extended but what are you going to do if you are a renter...sign up for paying 1 year of back rent once you finally get a job?? This new stimulus package comes in at roughly $1Trillion which will put the government easily over $8 Trillion in newly printed debt...AND after this round I don't feel there is any appetite for more. With 2 new states recently surpassing New York in COVID cases (California, Florida) and states like Texas and Georgia never really shutting down and cases rising...I'm positioning myself for when the Federal Reserve stops pumping the economy full of steroids (whips I mean stimulus).  Delta and American have announced 25K + layoffs after their stimulus ends October 1st and I'm afraid many announcements like this will be coming if we cannot get the cases under control (basically a vaccine). I'll continue to ride the wave and not fight the Federal Reserve but I'll be sleeping with one eye open. Most of my retirement funds are in cash and I'm riding the wave from my personal investment account where I willing to take the risk. Don't get greedy.

My Free Trade Reveal: The stocks that haven't performed well in my portfolio. Notice the theme RETAIL:

COTY - Purchased @ $10  

AMC - Purchased @ $11

Foot Locker - Purchased @ $59

Kohls - Purchased @ 57

Tapestry (formerly Coach) - Purchased @ $30

Red Robin - Purchased @ $20

I was up at one time in all these positions except I believe Foot Locker and Kohls and decided to be aggressive. Lesson(s): manage risk, don't get greedy, and don't believe the hype. Restaurants and Retail are not doing well, bankruptcies are rising and I am working to get out of these positions.  Peace Out

Life + Project Management - Pt. 1 (Skills Development) + EBAY Trade Reveal

To catch your attention, the internet and "others" try to lure you in with shocking statements, click bait, or even cool acronyms. But nah, we ain't about that here...just keeping it real. If this is for you then welcome, if you need more time to unplug from the Matrix then so be it. I wanted to talk about how I use the Urbanomics Pillars everyday to literally Project Manage my life. I don't need a degree or even a PMP (one of those shiny acronyms for being certified for managing projects) to succeed. They are the icing on the cake, as I have developed skills to manage my biggest project, my Life Project --- one that focuses on God, me, family, and friends. Notice I didn't say work, wealth, and traveling to each state/continent as my main project. Like others, I enjoy these things and they may be on my goal or bucket list, however; my project is my life.

To be balanced in life you need a strong core, that's the base of the Urbanomics Pillars. Underneath those 4 Pillars you need to manage the collection of small and large projects that make up your life very carefully. Every project you take on eats up time which is our most precious asset, every decision impacts a future decision, and distractions can derail you from your ultimate mission. So let's discuss how to manage projects and in turn manage your amazing life:

1) Develop Your Skills --- You have to be grounded in the basic things that will help you dream, set goals, make rationale data-driven decisions, manage risks, negotiate deals, and know what's fair (i.e., right vs. wrong). The skills I recommend people focusing on are the skills that are free, YES FREE!! If you need a cool acronym try this on SLAM+, it stands for:

Science | Legal | Arts | Math |  + (volunteer, teach, technology, engineering, trade, etc.)

All of these were learned for free in PUBLIC schools and have anchored my life. 

Science - I don't love chemistry, biology, or physics but I have a true appreciation for one simple technique that I use literally everyday of my life. I learned in science classes how to develop a hypothesis. In Science, a hypothesis is an tentative answer to an observation, phenomenon or scientific problem that can be tested by further observation, investigation and/or experimentation. 

In today's world, I hear so many people giving me their opinions but often I am suprised how little of it is rooted in any data at all. Funny in public school, I took something, usually a problem, and tried to find ALL the answer by identifying potential answers (solutions) and rigorously testing them over and over again. I do this everyday and for complex things I write them down.

Legal - It's sad to say but I fundamentally believe that everyone, especially people of color need to understand laws and regulations. In a litigious society, the difference between giving a statement that will be used against you or your child, illegal searches, contracts and fine print, loans and gifts, and stand your grown and imminent threat can unfortunately mean life or death. Legal laws killed Trayvon Martin, Breonna Taylor, George Floyd and countless other innocent people. It's still strange to say "lawful", "legal", "innocent" and yet they still ended up tragically dead in a mature, lawful society.

Arts - My focus on Arts is English because communicating is a lost form. So much of life is decided by the word choice you use and kids from a very early age can learn word choice, negotiation, debate, and how to write and articulate their thoughts by reading, acting, revisiting history, and through music as these are all forms with which we express ourselves in. The other art I find beautiful is speaking multiple languages -- growing up in a family and community of accents, the one thing I learned is to take the time to "listen" deeply and closely to what the other person is saying. I rarely ask someone to repeat themselves and have even told people don't try to compensate because english is your second language...say what you're saying and I'll piece it together. People come up with terms everyday to describe actions we've always known existed. The one that is top of mind is micro-aggression. Again, it's a bit fancy for me but I've always called this hate coming from haters and also when i was younger a put-down. Quick example, I can remember how mainly my white friends as early as elementary i believe would make a big deal out of saying the work "ask". I would say the word, they clearly knew what I meant but often felt it was their place to correct me and say do you mean ASK not AXE...haha you're not planning to kill me with an axe. Or I felt for some of my friends who went out of their way to emphasize the world important --- when most Americans hardly ever emphasize the first "T" --- I've always heard many say impor * ant.  So the arts helped me be an interpreter for my parents, a sympathizer for English second language persons, adventurous as I've speak African Krio, bits of Mende, Portuguese, and Spanish, but also cognizant that in the business world I needed to learn a NEW language to compete. I speak business fluently - I say important with the first "T', I emphasize ASK when I can remember, and most importantly due to another micro-aggression I felt early on I trained myself to speak slowly. While colleagues early in my career would blurt out, why are you speaking so fast...in a hurry. Again, you understood me but after my amazing presentation you needed a little something I guess to put me back in my place. Unfortunately, being an African that is proud and KNOWS his history and worth, I kept it moving. But again, I speak business -- so around 2007 I witnessed an amazing orator speak - then presidential hopeful Barack Obama his the scene and graced us with his presence. I heard the calm, smooth, deliberate, and slower pace with which he used with the world and I studied his speaking, literally. Between him and CEOs of major companies, I watch with how they "artfully" described their vision, slowly paused for questions, and elegantly drew you in with examples. I only knew of two other people with impact for me prior to President Obama and that was Christopher Wallace (The Notorious BIG) and Tupac Amaru Shakur (Tupac). Finally, history proves that words matter, and cultures since the beginning of time have had a few basic common principles -- treat your neighbor like you would want to be treated...and that fairness would take us a long way.

Math - Basic math, calculus, and most importantly probability and statistics have by far been the single best skills I've learned and use hourly. My most favorite class was prob/stat in college as it changed my life. Used by poker players, who often make great investors, I learned about how to calculate the odds of events happening. Tack on my learning of decision trees, applying this calculation to making everyday decisions and my world slowed down to a crawl. I was able to make informed decisions at school, in job selections (I graphed pros and cons on all the offers I received), at work, and in life. I used this to determine what houses to buy, where to live, what investments to make, and more importantly how to prioritize my TIME. This is the hardest concept for someone that grew up poor --- learning that you can't be everywhere and do everything. Time is your most precious resource and focusing on your most important areas, when you trust someone else (outsource), and when to admit you failed. Because you aren't taking enough risks if you haven't failed at something in life.

+ - To round out your skillset this is where I see volunteering, learning technologies, trades, mentoring, and teaching as a way to continuously improve over time.  You must expand your circle, give to others and upgrade your skills as time goes on. These are the ways to do them. 

Part 2 - Will cover how to manage projects from investing, renting homes, etc. 

Another Free Trade Reveal: Ebay had been in the dumps. Paypal is no longer a payment option that can be used on the platform. Disagreements between the CEO and outside investors led me to believe change was coming. And it has it a big way. This culminated with Ebay selling its classifieds business to a European company just this past week. This contract will net a healthy profit is Ebay can stay above $32 going into Jan 2021.  Ebay currently trades in the $55 dollar range and I may sell Ebay before that date as this position has already collected roughly 60+% of the gains.  Time for another investment to find:

Ceasars Update: I'm All In...Were U

Quick Update: Ceasars Entertainment's acquisition (i.e., hook up) with El Dorado is approved by all remaining state gaming commissions...the deal is officially sealed.

I most recently wrote here about my Ceasars' trade: Ceasars and El Dorado Hook Up

You also learned in this post about my drive to independent and bout it bout thanks to Master P, Diddy, Robert Smith, and countless black business men. Even though I still have a 9-5 as they say, I have to stay game ready. After spending time with the family, it's back to work. Grinding through the day's news and articles to sharpen my craft...like being in the gym or music studio. I love data analytics so I look for public news available to everyone, analyze the risk, and think deeply about what the projected outcome will be. Many will laugh because being a contrarian I often don't think too hard...I often ask what does the everyday person think will happen and usually I invest and sometimes bet that "the opposite" will occur. Sharks were circling this iconic Ceasars brand awhile back and my billionaire buddy Tilman Fertitta made no secret about it when he was trying acquire the brand I believe a year or so ago via his Golden Nugget holding. Data provided to you in plain sight, now I just needed to evaluate the business and the risk. Well, I didn't have to go far...I practically used to call Vegas a second home for a minute. I'd go 3 sometimes 4 times a year to relax, sports bet, and just let loose with my friends. Where did we often find ourselves...at Ceasars one of the most iconic and recognizable brands in the world. When El Dorado tried to slide into Ceasars DM, many said laughed and said who is El Dorado...they are smaller, less known, and even that the deal would consolidate too much power. I laughed that sounds a lot like our politics and world today. The rich get richer and leaders across the world continue to consolidate power.

So the investment was simple, the gaming industry would salivate at a gigantic new company that will document across the US (casinos are in the South, 4 in New Jersey alone, tracks in Indiana and of course, gaming in Vegas). Then COVID hit and many bailed on their position...need proof look as Ceasars stock price as it dropped to $6. Yes, I flinched as they said no one would go to Casinos a potential hot spot for infection and the gaming commissions would balk at so much consolidation. But I block out the noise and look deeper --- there was too much money to be made, too much power now in the hands of a few players...and citizens who rather be drinking and playing slots then worrying about their health.  So from $6 to know it's well over $12 dollars. We get a little less than $9 bucks paid out being shareholders and the remaining balance is given to us in stock of the newly formed El Dorado/Ceasars entity.  

Nice work for all who got in on the trade...now time for a new stock to invest in.

One of my many trips to Ceasars:

#datadriventrades #againstthegrain #payitforward #ifnotnowthenwhen

Other recent examples of going against the grain:

Sprint -- Traded down to $4 and Wall Street gave it a 35% chance of being approved. Outcome: T-Mobile Acquired Sprint for one of my biggest trades ever

Covid-19 -- I called for shutdowns, masks, and collective unity. Most people thought it's fake and would rather kick it at the beach. Multiple rounds of stimulus means people are hurting, bankruptcies are rising, lockdowns will continue as cases spike. Vaccines are rarely found in the first year...so the Federal Reserve can only inflate the economy for so long. Be safe and be ready

E-Trade (ETFC) --- Hookup Alert

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments)	Search My Blog

Don't wanna go on livin' without you

I got the hook up holla if you hear me (Ughhhhhh)

And if we say bye bye bye then take my heart with you

I got the hook up holla if you hear me (Ughhhhhh)

Can we go on livin' without you

I got the hook up holla if you hear me (Ughhhhhh)

Artist: Master P + Sons of Funk ~ Song: I Got The Hook Up

So for a short period of time, I've decided to open up my portfolio to help educate people. United we stand and by investing you can be independent, self-owned and bout it bout (thanks P). You can follow wild Reddit investing pages that chronicle how one person made $1M out of his $35K retirement account but those stories never tell you how many people flamed out taking crazy risks. This is about investing in yourself and your goals for the long-term. It's about diversifying your streams of income so that you make decisions on your own terms. It's not a overnight dream, but a long-term goal that you have to plan for. Being musically inclined, I remember a time when Master P said Ughhhh but more importantly I always heard him say "independent, black-owned and I'm bout it bout".  Yes sir, I remember this like it was yesterday but it was over 2 decades ago since Master P dominated the scene. Flashback: In high school, I used to go back and forth about which record label was the best. My man Darryl Baxter was definitely in the No Limit Records camp (the record label of Master P) and so was Ed Whitney. I've always gone against the grain, so to make this a competitive debate each day I took the other side and would always say Sean Puffy Combs and his Bad Boy record label was better. I know --- two successful black men meant we all were right at the end of the day but those debates were memorable. But what they didn't know was I was in the No Limit Camp way before I was a fan of Bad Boy because my dad (being a music lover) brought home a "tape" from the "record" store back then. Don't ask me how or why but he had a tape of Master P's "Ice Cream Man" which I played on repeat over and over and over. The moral of this story is similar to Master P, I write this post to plan a seed in one person's mind just like Master P did when he had a whole generation repeating that phrase. And for the record, NO, I was not inspired to be the "Ice Cream Man" but to be independent black-owned and yes bout it bout it. Next time I'll tell you about Suave House and my clique but let's stay focused.

If you haven't noticed, over the years I've had my fair share of stock hookups. On Wall Street, we call this activity: mergers, acquisitions, and takeovers. My search for value sometimes leads others in the same direction and I get lucky if a big investor or company buys out the company I own for a nice premium --- a hookup. No long story today but I wanted to highlight E-Trade Financial. I like to do research to find my next investment and often benefit from small clues hiding in plain site. If you don't believe me go back and read my posts on Sprint. It will go down as one of my most memorable investments because it was based off of the fact that the CEO (Marcelo Claure) and the Chairman of the Board (Masayoshi Son) both sold their houses before the deal was ever close to being finalized. haha who sells a $10M crib next to Sprint's headquarters unless you're on good authority you won't need it anymore.  

Link: Sprint-t-mobile-hookup-alert.html

My trade in E-Trade (no pun intended) started from the fact that apps like RobinHood, Dough and others were massively disrupting the retail stock trading space. With 20 years of investing under my belt, I can truly tell you the hardest problem to overcome is the fees which eat into your profits when making a trade. RobinHood and others have helped to reduce those fees to $0. TD Ameritrade and E-Trade were hurt badly kinda like how record sales were impacted once streaming became a thing. So along came Charles Schwab (SCHW) who decided to hookup with TD Ameritrade. There were rumors that consolidation was coming to the industry but I was slow and missed an opportunity to trade AMTD. So I kept an eye on ETFC and decided if I couldn't get the first option, I would trade the second option. Morgan Stanley (MS) came calling and slid into E-Trade's DM. The terms are Morgan Stanley will give ETFC shareholders 1.0432 for every share of MS. This is a good example where my current trade is not yet profitable (note: it was prior to COVID-19 market crash) but you need to have patience. However, if the deal closes in the 4th Quarter as expected, this trade will become profitable once closed or when my trade expiry date (Jan 2021) hits. 

Always remember, there is strength in numbers

(Not Just A) Day of Independence

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments)	Search My Blog

Independence Day

For years, I've been writing about independence through practices, or habits if you will, that strengthen and stabilize your mind, body, and soul --- for me I call them Pillars and there are 4 Pillars. I'm not going to go into them today but feel free to click above or just take the time to read my blog and holla back if you've learned something, agree, or disagree because I am always learning and appreciate your thoughts. I simply ask that you don't come at me with the cliché tag line of life is more than just money. If so, then you haven't read the 4 Pillars or you just don't get it.  For me, life is about freedom, independence, and time --- things that you don't fight or celebrate for on just one day it's an everyday hustle (cue: Rick Ross - Hustlin') because these can be taken from you at any time. 

It took a friend halfway across the world to quiz me once on what my mission is. They couldn't understand why I would do this and I guess more importantly what I wanted from people. I thought it sounded jaded but I realized the world we live in is getting more transactional by the day and you have to state your intentions all the time or people are suspicious. My mission is for people to learn, share, and flourish across the 4 Pillars on their path towards a more purposeful and secure life (including financially secure)...on their own terms.  That is freedom to me...that is independence. 

So my view on Independence Day (I-D) celebrations is a bit different. Why don't we celebrate the independence of people and the on-going fight we all have for independence. Why not move Independence Day to central date, and we recognize and celebrate the independence of all people and all struggles. Your independence does not have to triumph over another. For me, I celebrated Juneteeth which is dear to me and many African-Americans across this country. Why is it NOT a holiday?? But I also celebrate the African independence of my family's country and culture. In Chicago, we celebrate with my white brother and sisters as they dye the river Green in honor of Irish heritage and I've even been off for Polish holidays and I wonder why don't we do the same for my heritage. I've taken part in Cinco de Mayo celebrations only to learn from a Mexican colleague at work that May 5th is not the day Mexico celebrates as it's independence day. Remix that if you need to --- we celebrate a day that my Mexican brothers and sisters don't even recognize as their I-D. So disruption comes from out of the box thinking -- like "Defund The Police" which anyone with any common sense knows simply means re-investing in beaten down communities (literally and figuratively). Look up the city of Newark which "defunded" and "re-invested" and "re-built its Police Department". Hell it's even a strategy on Wall Street --- We call it the "Dogs of the Dow" (at the end of the you buy the lowest performing Dow stocks of that year) and rotating funds into beaten down stocks or sectors. 

So on this day I recognize the I-D of Sierra Leone which my family celebrates (April 27th), I recognize Juneteeth, I recognize Mexico's real I-D, I recognize US I-D, but more importantly I recognize and respect the I-D of all my brothers and sisters across the world. To celebrate I-D means you felt the ugly shackles of oppression, tyranny, and hate and you fought for what was right. Someone is always breaking away from under the rule of another...that is INDEPENDENCE. So fast forward to today --- if we are celebrating I-D stand with me and fight oppression, racism, sexism, etc. Stand for equality because when a group of people are systemically not being treated equal --- how can they consider themselves free, independent, equal. 

At this point in my life, I own enough assets to work where I want, if I want, and spend time doing what is most important to me --- that's independence. But being am black man in America it does not mean I am free or treated equal. For this next hurdle, we must all unite together and use our assets, connections, voices, protests, and votes as leverage for change. That's how I get business and life deals done and one way we all can effect change.

#justiceforgeorgefloyd  #blacklivesmatter #ifnotnowthenwhen #urbanomics4pillars