Wall Street Gold Medal

Going for gold might be replaced with the phrase 'Going for Phelps' one of these days. But if you are in the financial markets getting your Michael Phelps on has been difficult because the markets have been more volatile than a crazy ex-girlfriend. If you know where I am going with this she's up one day and then flying off the charts the next day in the other direction. The nice thing is I have been picking good girls lately as stocks and I haven't been whipped around as much as others have. If you followed our post just a month ago, I posted the steps to navigate these choppy markets --> http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/07/navigating-choppy-markets.html.

One again the market has had two sharp day to the downside, however most investors feeling the brunt of that pain are people exposed to the financial sector. After recent articles spooked the investment community, investors have been selling off banks and Fannie and Freddie rather quickly. There have been articles that have highlighted that another big bank may go under due to the ongoing credit crunch. Then Barron's pointed out that there is a likelihood that the government may have to bail out Fannie and Freddie which could leave current stakes invested in the government sponsored agencies worthless. All this proves is that financials suck and will continue to suck for the forseeable future. Why people choose to ignore that fact is beyond me. In your 401K plan or in your IRA, I would stick with less volatile investments at this point like the Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). This is still a solid pick because the Producers Price Index (PPI) was recently released and again inflation is steadily rising. And in my brokerage account I see myself steadily moving towards dividend yielding stocks, technology, transportation, and infrastructure plays.

And for a quick discussion on some of the stocks in my actual portfolio and/or in my stock tracker portfolio:

Collectors Universe (CLCT) - Although, you may want to smack this company like many others for spending without a conscious, they have announced a strategy to cut back on expenses now that their gem grading business is gaining traction. I hope that this business continues to take off like I observed after reading the last quarterly report and while we wait enjoy the 14% dividend this stock touts. I know the fear may be that the dividend will be cut due to such a high yield, but as long as the payments are made keep 'collecting' and participate in a dividend re-investment program (DRIP) to obtain more shares at these low prices.

Burlington Northern (BNI) - This transportation company has whethered the storm and continues to hold steady. Transports should benefit from the declining oil prices and stronger pricing power. I ain't selling until Buffet does.

Microsoft (MSFT) - Thank goodness the Yahoo mess is over and the world can move on and realize that MSFT is a world class technology company that continues to sit on an unbearable amount of cash. I would prefer that they start to increase the dividend amount so that I can get paid as I wait for great results from these guys. I would take dividends here and partipate in the DRIP.

Radisys (RSYS) - This stock reported great earnings and analysts raised the expected guidance for the next quarter by a whopping 9c! It holds steady on these tough days and usually outpaces the market on good days. It hit a bit of a rough patch after insiders sold in the last few weeks but the downside should ease and this stock should move higher.

EPD, ETE - This is a play on natural gas and I like the pipeline stocks in the future because there is good dividend insulation which should be re-invested for a great long term gain. The yield is around 7% here and is considered stable.

MOVE - This stock has rebounded from the dungeons of $2 after their earnings announcement and will move higher as real estate eventually rebounds way down the line from now.

China Digital (STV) - STV is like an ex-girlfriend and is more volatile than a Jerry Springer show. I think the international slowdown causes this stock to sag and the drop has been sharp. This stock rebounds when the market is positive and does so rather sharply. I would recommend adding to your positions slowly.

AK Steel (AKS) - I believe is still a solid company but get out of the way of the commodities. Its like trying to catch a falling knife and thats not too smart.

EWJ - Great play on the downturn in the international markets, especially Japan.

OPTR - Don't know a lot about this stock which met my screen. It was up sharply then retreated. I don't own this stock but would look to take profits after another quick run up.

Keepin' It Real / Urb Update: China Digital Holdings (STV)

My job here is to keep it real and keep hitting you with the truth. Kinda like real hip hop in my day when Public Enemy came out with the track “911 is a Joke”. So get up a get get get down 911 is a joke in your town! Well I wanted to finish posting my thoughts about the economy as I had promised in my last post. A few things have changed that will start to temper my views, however. But in honor of Public Enemy I will “keep it real” and hit you with my true assessment of how the economy and the market look at this point. When I sat down and took notes about what I was going to write it was just about the economy…and I believe it will be important to also write about the market. Because although similar the two do not necessarily go hand in hand. The economy represents the REAL, the everyday real time stuff that going on today. Houses being foreclosed on is REAL, prices of copper (and people beginning to steal copper from construction sites) is REAL, the price of gas is very REAL. And the market is based many times on Interpretation…you often have to ask yourself what do I think is going to happen to the market or this stock and how did I just interpret data or information provided by the market, or Ben Bernanke (Federal Reserve Chairman) or the chief executive of the corporation that I own. So stayed tuned for that because I just remember that my views on the economy haven’t changed… but with an emergency rate cut of .75%, and now another rate cut of .50% begins to change my views on certain segments of the stock market.

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URBANOMICS UPDATE: SELL CHINA DIGITAL HOLDINGS (NYSE: STV)

For the 3rd time in less than 2 weeks I have bought and sold STV for more than 5%! I told you that I have just begun the art of reading charts and the charts don’t lie. I used to laugh at those commercials that promise to make you a chart reading pro, and even though I still think that they are a bunch of bulls$#@!, I am beginning to understand the rewards of chart reading. URB REAL LIFE EXAMPLE: My most recent example is based on my recommendation, I told you that my price point for STV was $21.50. STV fell to my targets and I received an alert yesterday to determine if I wanted to buy the stock again for the 3rd TIME! So I watched in and decided to get in YESTERDAY (1/30/08) @ $21.25. STV is up almost 10% today and I will place a limit order to sell the stock somewhere above $23.25. I will reflect this sell in my stock tracker also. And again if STV hits my target I will buy it for the 4th time and attempt to pick it up in my stock tracker also…so that you can see that multiple roundtrip buy and sell orders can be made on this stock.

Enjoy!!!

~J. Gotti

Trying to Catch My Breathe...

Or better yet, "Let Me Clear My Throat". I am trying to catch up to a few things so far. For example, I wanted to follow-up on a previous post and I'd like to respond to a reader's comment left recently and of course I want to drop my personal thoughts on something that I nailed right on the head.

Follow-up to My Previous Post

First thing, is I wanted to briefly follow-up on my previous post that I was just now able to get around to. I really like Radisys (RSYS) at these levels and even in this volatile market...I stray away from posting a new Superman Price, but if I were it would go a little something like this. I am sticking to my original price point of $12.25, but I would Superman RSYS @ $11.85. Hopefully you'll remember some of my writings on price points because as I become better reading charts I really like using these points to determine my buys and most importantly my REPEAT BUYS. My real life example is today my limit order for RSYS filled at 11.85 and that is my repeat buy.

Next matter on hand, China Digital Holdings (STV). Warning, this is a very volatile stock so those with queasy stomachs beware. I will need to continue to monitor this one close but I stick to my earlier price points from my previous post. I bought at $21.50 and noticed quick profit taking at resistance levels of 22.70, maybe 23. Since then I have purchased and sold at the prices described here. And to show that I stand by my points I had a limit order fill today at roughly $21.50, and I will sell again at 23. Note: Although volatile, I believe this will continue to trade in this range for awhile. As noted I have already bought and sold this stock in the range and I will keep doing so for small but effective 5% gains. The first time it took two days to reach my 5% target and today when my 2nd limit order filled, I was please to see that our target hit again on the same day! I will be selling STV, very likely by tomorrow and looking to buy again and continue picking away at the 5% target.



Reader Response

Click here for my Reader Response to: Subzero Mortgage Freeze

That nasty word...RECESSION:

and stay tuned for why I called the recession awhile back!

Disclosure: I own shares of RSYS & STV

Out of Sync...

This posting should be easy. Technically it was written on January 17, but it saved away on another laptop so this is the first opportunity that I have had to post my thoughts. It goes a little something like this:

Yep this year my goal is to sync up my recommendations with the handy little portfolio tracker that you see to your right of my site. This will help you understand how our recommendations are doing. The hard part is that it will never completely be accurate because the market is all about timing. When I recommend price points to you, I go out there and put a limit order to buy that stock, which helps me not have to follow its every move or make spontaneous buy or sell trades.

Limit Trade Definition: Instruction to execute an order for a stock only at a specified price or better. The broker continues the order until a specified date or until the customer terminates it. Assume an investor places a limit order to buy at $10 or less a stock now selling at $11. If the stock goes up to $20, the broker will not execute a buy order; if it falls to $10, the broker will execute a buy order immediately. (Courtesy of allbusiness.com)

Great examples:

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) – I recommended selling this stock here on my post but it remained on the tracking tool to see if my recommendation to sell if for a small loss was correct. And that appears to be a good decision, we sold RAD for a loss because we didn’t believe the fundamentals were there and the stock ended up plummeting even further. So that is an example of how the tracker can be used to display my thoughts, even though the losses appear much worse. Don't believe I recommended selling, use the search tool and look for all postings about Rite Aid or RAD.

Radisys (NASDAQ: RSYS) – This stock is an example of what I hope to be able to do from here on out when I recommend a stock. I post it here @ URBANOMICS and then buy/track it on my stock tracking tool. NOTICE, my price point for RSYS is $12.25 and I will place a limit order for this price until it fills (See limit order definition above). However, because the stock tracking tool does not accept limit orders I have to buy it at whatever price is available at the time (which I believe was $12.38).
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New Recommendation – China Digital Holdings (NYSE: STV) is a BUY

China Digital Holdings (NYSE: STV) This is a great play, where I can’t take credit for finding this stock. Disclosure: This stock was not produced by my stock picking strategy, therefore I don’t have a lot of info which came as a recommendation from a friend who has been following the stock more closely. It’s Initial Public Offering (IPO), or the first sale of a corporation's stock to the public, was last year and it took off. But when the market cooled this stock cooled even faster. So my friend brought the stock to my attention and as my strategy often calls I began reading the chart of STV to identify a floor or resistance level for the stock. An easy floor if you believe the stock will rise and continue to do well is the 52 week low. I researched STV and found that the 52 week briefly brushed $20.64 yesterday and after looking at previous closing prices and intraday lows I developed my price point of $21.50.

Collectors Universe (NYSE: CLCT) – This a stock I have recommended in the past and they offer a huge dividend payout at the tune of 8%. I am re-recommending CLCT at 11.01 to take advantage of dollar cost averaging down, the dividend and potential growth.