Which Bad Word is it...

It was interesting how a few months ago; the talk of the town was inflation. The massive amounts of dollars being pumped into the economy was a lifesaver but many experts also predicted this would lead to inflation down the road. A short description of inflation is the rise in a basket of staple consumer goods due to the fact that it takes more dollars to buy those goods. It kinda makes sense, there is more money out there, therefore; more dollars will be needed in the future. Experts have also tacked on the fact that it the Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to the point of "It can’t go any lower". The funny thing is that both of these points are exactly right and inflation and interest rates have not risen. WHY??

Because of the other nasty word that’s been surfacing…DEFLATION. This is the decline in value of goods, because there is not enough money circulating throughout the economy. This may be more accurate at this point because of:

• DEMAND – there is less demand for consumer goods, costs drop to keep people buying
• VELOCITY – Banks are not lending and this means money is not changing hands…the velocity is not circulating the money
• SAVINGS – Consumers are saving more money…the savings rate is 6.4% and rising. We are also demanding more and more deals (i.e., LOWER PRICES) see the heighten interest in sites like Groupon, Slickdeals, coupon sites, etc
• HIRING – Companies are turning a profit, but hiring has not returned. Productivity is high, temp workers are common…but all out hiring has not been seen.

This is my list of stocks that I've wanted to purchase. Some at the recommendation of key analysts or experts and others because I like the technicals observed:

POTASH - a little late on this one now that it has run up on takeover talks.

HPQ - 40.20

RRR - 6.76

IRM - 21.68

BAC - 13

RF - 6.67

CMCSK 15.90

The Assessment...

Its time for me to chime in and give you my assessment. We are more than half way through 2010 and its been an interesting ride. I can thank Lebron James for keeping me glued to the television a little bit more than usual. And I will admit that I didn't think it could financially get done...going to Miami that is and forming the Big 3 with Wade and Bosh. This move all of a sudden places Miami in playoff contention right?? Well we'll see because Orlando is still a good team and those Celtics keep signing veteran players. Shaq is the latest addition to Boston and now is Boston officially the Big 4?? I guess the questions keep coming, is Brett Favre staying or going. Wow this story sounds familiar, and it still seems like he doesn't know. So I don't have an assessment on these sport questions but I do have an assessment on the market.

Since the economic downturn, I have been more interested in market events and I been forming themes that may lead to investing decisions. This is traditionally against what I do, but its more fun that just looking at quantitative indicators. So here is my assessment:

~ Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: There is a lot of confusing information out there but it appears that the job situation is trending in a positive direction. It is very slow and we are not even close to turning a corner but the number are off of the all-time lows. This is the most critical part to the recovery and I am still not sold that we are turning a corner. There is a very odd trend that is forming and its: Companies are making and holding onto their cash, and Consumers are strapped for cash

~ Shock Value: I think that people are still jittery because its been hard to catch a break. In general, we all want to hear and see good news but we just haven't been able to get it. I think the wars, the oil spill, politicians fighting, immigration, etc have all been important issues but serve as distractions from getting people stabilized.

~ Trading Ranges: Lastly, I believe that because our politicians can't rally around effort after effort that will spur job growth, people will still feel uneasy. So oddly enough I think it makes sense to trade defensively and hold onto only core holdings. I think it makes sense to look at the ranges that stocks are currently trading in and take advantage of buying in on sharp dips and selling or even shorting stocks trading at the top of their range. I think most stocks will not be aggressively raising their guidance because I frankly don't believe the demand is there. This will keep most stocks trading in a range that could allow us to make some cash and we wait for our core holdings to outperform the rest.