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Showing posts with label refinance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label refinance. Show all posts

Thursday, May 28, 2020

A Toast --- Refinance Your Future

Blessings all pon mi life and

Me thank God for di journey, di earnings a jus fi di plus (yeah)
Gratitude is a must, yeah
Me see blessings fall by mi right hand
Buss a toast fi di friends weh tek off heavy load
One time did sit down inna class and we bored
Den Oli say do road and mi gwan wid di road


Lyrics by Koffee --- "Toast"

Gratitude is a must, well said Koffee and a beautiful and fun song. A reminder life is short, thank God for the journey and the earnings that we have. I know many of us are following along and trying to position our family, friends, and colleagues in a position where we can come out of this COVID-19 pandemic crisis as as unscathed as possible. It is not easy but I remind people recessions are built into our economic model and life is uncertain --- so we must always stay ready for what life has in store for us. And yes Koffee me thank God for the journey, the earnings are just a plus..they cannot replace family, friends, memories, or life itself.  So this article is to stop and recognize the hard work of friends, family and readers. I think about all those hours I used to spend in the gym, on the football field, and on the baseball diamond. Practice helped me during the most difficult moments of a game. I relied on the skills I had practiced day after day. So "we" must all do the same in life --- keep your head down during adversity and keep your eye on the greater prize. Here is how we are surviving and thriving through the Covid-19 pandemic:

Liquidity is Key
Remember during a crisis, cash is king and debt is debt is not your friend because the people that provided you with that debt are afraid you won't pay. So rule #1 is to get your hands on cash.

Rainy Day Funds - Me personally I have a rainy day account that is just for these times. Pandemic, loss of job, emergencies.
Stock Funds - I got liquid here as well. It's easy to sell like I did in my 401K account and go to cash. But in my brokerage account I sold a few winners and reinvested in losers. I also bought some new stocks and I hope to ride them on the way up
Assets - Another popular way to get liquid is to tap your home equity. Also called "Cash-Out Refinance", you can borrow equity from your home. Readers and friends have contacted me about how they were able to successfully tap equity and are sitting on a war chest as small backstop through this crisis or to fund their next investment. But if you weren't in the gym with us, you'll find now that banks are reducing their risk and that means they are closing off this popular source of getting cash.

Debt is Not Your Friend
The most difficult thing during a crisis is paying debt when your primary source of funds dries up -- reduction in hours, loss of job, furlough. Hence why liquidity is key to hold you over.

Refinance - If you were in the gym with us. You used this time to refinance as much of your debt that you have. You can have good debt and bad debt but all must be evaluated. As mentioned above, I know of readers that refinanced, I just refinanced and dropped over 1 full percentage point off of my mortgage rate. Got the great news today the loan is closed.  

Cutting Costs - I recommend reviewing all of your costs. You choose what is necessary and what is a nice to have. But don't be scurred, all of your debt or costs need to be revisited. This is the fun part --- where you prove you are the boss of your life/household/path. Make a list and reach out to every vendor and see how you can renegotiate terms. First, they should value and covet your business. The biggest risk to a vendor is losing a good customer. Second, the next big risk is a customer who can't pay. So work out better terms or leave for a new vendor. If you cannot pay, talk to them about your hardship --- credit cards, student loans, and many utility companies will work with you on payment plans or temporary forbearance.  Over 7% of all mortgages (needs fact checking) are in forbearance so there is no stigma if you lost your job or have fallen on hard times. Many business people I know even go a step further and reorganize their corporation --- this is a fancy term for bankruptcy. Nothing to be ashamed of...you never want to get into debt so deep that you'll never really be able to pay it off.
I'm having fun with it and call it board meetings -- I just called Comcast and didn't like their answer so we are switching to a new vendor. For insurance, I reached out to a consultant who is calling a number of providers to find me the best insurance plan for my family. If you don't meet my demands in my board room, we jump ship. See ya Geico.  But read the fine print and avoid long-term contracts unless they are truly in your favor.

Go on the Offense - My favorite thing is when the world is pulling back to find those pockets to begin investing. When things are at there darkest hours, I think of myself as an explorer looking for those rare gems. Again, my friends and family are already pouncing. Toast to my little brother purchased his first home and I know of friends who have offers on the table. If you look back, during the last major crisis is when I bought my home --- I did the math and prices in the city of Chicago had dropped roughly 40% since the peak. Remember my candy bar analogy, I only remember when Reese's Cups were 50c. So you're gonna have a hard time talking me into paying anything more. 

Now that I've refinance my home, I'm going to have a board meeting on my rental property...if my bank is smart they will come to the table with a good deal. After that, I plan to begin search on my 3rd property. This will take lots of research because my next investment has to earn the right to use my hard earned money. Hopefully this next property can be the stepping stone to fund an empire of diversified property. I guess you can say I have dreams like Lucious and Cookie in the TV show Empire. 

Moment of Prayer --- No matter how successful you are, there are variables that are out of your control. I saw the disgusting murder of a black man in Minnesota and I got emotional. Once again, the snuffing out of an innocent life was on full display for the world. It reminded me recently of the time, I was returning from the hospital to go to work and got pulled over. I was checking in on my critically ill father and the police pulled me over for speeding at 8AM in the morning (even though I was not given a ticket). I had recently watched the movie "The Hate U Give" --- and rolled my window down quickly and put my hands on the dashboard. The cop recognized how serious I was taking this event and commented that this is not the way to start you day huh. I stayed quiet because at that moment all I could think of was my critically ill father, my youngest daughter, and my pregnant wife. I have a family to come home too. And if someone took that away from me ---- they don't deserve that right. I tell everyone to please be safe from the Covid-19 virus but to my people of color I also have to tell you to please be safe AT ALL TIMES.  God bless you all




Saturday, May 09, 2020

What Coronavirus Risk --- The Markets Have Roared Back


What Coronavirus Risk --- The Markets Have Roared Back

First I want to say WOW, the markets have bounced back in a loud way. Louder than my Cross Colours ๐Ÿ‘šclothes back in the 90s. I have been on a number of enlightening calls in the last few weeks to gauge the pulse of the us --- the people --- the consumers. I keep my ears to the streets to see what real people are doing and if it’s in line with what I hear in the news --- I do this because I am wary of Headline Risk. One hot topic is Real Estate and I’ve been very surprised to hear what people are doing in this space. Of course job security has been a frequent discussion as well. For example, bankruptcies are occurring as companies navigate the crisis. And stimulus oh my – it seems that the Federal Reserve and Congress have somewhat been on the same page and don’t care about debt, inflation, or the next generation because they have pumped a record 4 Trillion Dollars into the economy. It’s much harder to invest during a crisis because there is so much news and information flowing -- Headline Risk. The amount of texts I get and send about breaking news and events is way up. So I usually like to keep things simple and you got a glimpse of that last month:

Contagious Health Pandemic ร  BAD ๐Ÿ‘Ž
Administration Response to Pandemic ร  BAD + SLOW๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž
Stimulus from Fed Reserve + Congress ร  Very Good (Rollout of Stimulus Checks – slow; PPP – well let’s just say the LA Lakers, a Billionaire’s holding company, and a rich Florida Homeowner’s association all got a $$Million$$ dollar checks before small businesses on main street did. Changing from Very Good to Good ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘
News of Re-openings ร  Risky (Again unorganized but I understand the need to get people back to work) ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
News of Treatments ร  Very Positive as I wrote about Gilead and Remdesivir very early on ๐Ÿ‘
News of Vaccines  ร  Nothings seems imminent until 2021 w/ one big exception the Oxford vaccine out of London I believe could be promising as they were already working on a coronavirus vaccine and are using those building blocks to fight COVID-19. ๐Ÿ‘Ž

You do the math from what I’ve listed out and you’ll see why I split my investment strategy.  Without a vaccine, a contagious health pandemic is very dangerous and now cities have run the numbers and can’t stomach the shut-downs any longer…even if it means deaths tick up higher.  But 4 Trillion of Stimulus will make some of us temporarily forget we are in a crisis – but will everyone get a piece of this helicopter money strategy.  So my calculation is this:

  • I need my retirement income protected – Retirement Funds out of the market ✅
  • I need some exposure to Stimulus induced rally – Personal Investment Account (very active and I’m looking for big gains and possible exits) - Teladoc, Uber, Match, Roku, Gold ✅✅
  • I need to cut costs and stockpile cash – Refinance, apply for stimulus funds, cut costs in my family budget ✅ (Comcast and Insurance cos I still owe you a call)


Headlines Versus Real Life

Headline -- Mortgage rates near record lows — and green shoots emerges as Americans prep a move back into home-buying
Real-Life – In the last few weeks, I’ve heard people are putting in offers, closing, and trying to move from being renters to owners. If the price is right, go for it because rates are low. Still a little surprised at the pent up demand here.

Headline – Banks are requiring HIGHER down payments (often 20%) and higher credit scores; JP Morgan and Wells Fargo have stopped Cash Out Refinances / HELOCs
Real-Life – Back in March, I told you to refinance and get cheap cash while you can. The Banks are sleepy and slow but are they are finally tightening the screws. I know of a Cash-Out Refinance recently closed and I got instructions to lock my regular refinance rate a few weeks back. Normal refi’s will still be occurring but look for more scrutiny because of the jobs landscape due to COVID-19.  As far as Cash-Out Refis, if you were slow this source of cheap cash may be narrowing.  

Headline -- Mortgage forbearance (program allowing people to NOT pay mortgage) has ballooned up to 4.1 million borrowers/ Over 7.5% of home loans
Real-Life – I have heard real stories of mid to large sized landlords saying their tenants have lost their jobs and their rental income is impacted. Do you fault the tenants for not diversifying their tenants or simply forgive tenants and renters because this is an act of God. What about this -- how long will eviction moratoriums be in place by cities AND will people pay – back rent and back loans may be too much for people to pay plus their normal rent when the economy picks up. This is the area that concerns me the most especially since I’m hearing of people buying homes NOW. Is this the tale of the halves and have nots or are people a little too early into a looming crisis?


Headline -- In roughly 6 weeks, unemployment claims have jumped to 30 Million people and projections of roughly 47 Million are being forecasted as the peak (by the Federal Reserve St. Louis)

Real-Life – Over the past few weeks, I’ve heard about management changes at corporations, bankruptcies, and mainly furloughs. Thanks to some courageous leaders many companies are pledging to NOT layoff but I’ve seen the layoffs in the restaurant, hospitality, entertainment, and travel industries. For example, United Airlines which accepted “stimulus” money will keep employees on the payroll until the money runs out. It’s April and they have already told staff to take 20 unpaid days off before October AND will lay off 30%.

I did my analysis back in March so I would not suffer from analysis paralysis today. You can easily get caught up with ALL of the changing headlines. I am preparing for the long winter like in the Game of Thrones. United Airlines is a big and resourceful company – if they have enough information in their crystal ball in May to a) take the stimulus money and b) still announce layoffs of 30% in October what does that mean for the economy, stock market and jobs picture. I always want to have optionality – you see I’m setup like United to ride the stock market being fueled by a) stimulus.  I’m only roughly 10% away from my all-time portfolio highs (4 Trillion in stimulus will do that I guess) but I’m slowly exiting winning positions AND my retirement funds are now not moving until I understand what United sees coming in October. Maybe they see reality sinking in once the stimulus wears off that we all must come together – stringent distancing, an effective treatment, bountiful productions of a vaccine, and less fear in the air.   If NOT it will be a long cold winter.

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Keep On Pushing - Q2 Market Outlook Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

With Quarter 1 2020 in the books, I wanted to capture a few of the headlines coming across my screen that I'm paying close attention too:

What you Should Know:

  1. Unemployment numbers are on the rise
  2. The Federal Reserve is printing money an unprecedented levels - rates have lowered as they help unfreeze the mortgage markets
  3. Shelter-In Place is sparking a rise in internet companies
  4. Deals are being lost but the big ones are going through
  5. SBA Loan Details



Jobs Number:
- A record 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week (Labor Department).  Last week saw the biggest jump in new jobless claims in history, surpassing the record of 695,000 set in 1982. Many economists say this is the beginning of a massive spike in unemployment that could result in over 40 million Americans losing their jobs by April.

Interest Rates:

- 30 Year Mortgage are at lowest levels of: 3.4%
- Mortgage Applications up 15.3% 
- Refinance up 26%
Note: One company said they received 8K refinance requests day

Investment Themes:

Invest in Internet Related Companies:
- Match Group disclosed that Tinder interactions are up. But it is not resulting in a large number of  new customer adds just yet
- Zoom Media (NASDAQ: ZM) is winning the marketing war. Everyone thinks Zoom and Slack (NYSE: WORK) are the only telework software out there. There are many but Microsoft Teams (Microsoft: MSFT), Go To Meeting, are go to collaboration and communication tools.
- Also cyber security software is in high demand. To help my client with the Coronavirus crisis, I manned the call support line and took calls from all over the world for the first time in my life. Every major client was working remote and more importantly I listened to the name of the software being used: Zscaler and many remote authentication and identity management tools are needed NOW more than ever.

Deal or No Deal
Madison Square Garden (NYSE: MSG)  – The owner of the NY Knicks just recently spun off their restaurants business. Hmmm I think someone may be separating the good assets from the bad assets.

Xerox (NYSE: X) – Some Mergers are no longer being pursued. HP is no longer being courted by Xerox.
Sprint (now merged under T-Mobile TMUS) - Some Mergers were pushed through. One of my biggest wins was Sprint and this deal closed today!!! T-Mobile required their 16 banking partners to come through with the funding --- Deal Closed

Helicopter Money - The last line of defense for the capital system under stress is to bail everyone out. I sh!t you not in economics its called the helicopter money strategy. Well for anyone looking to get a Small Business Loan, I captured some of the details here:

SBA Loan Details:
  • Small Business Administration (SBA) Loans are available beginning Friday
  • All existing SBA-certified lenders are eligible
  • All FDIC-insured banks and Credit Unions are eligible
  • The SBA is developing a portal for borrowers without existing relationships to find local lenders

      SBA Loan Terms:
  • 0.5 interest rate with 2- year term
  • Payments are being deferred for 6 months
  • Partial or full loan forgiveness avail depending on layoffs (not happening) and certain qualified expenses
  • The loans are 100% guaranteed by SBA
  • The loans are administered by individual lenders



Monday, March 16, 2020

Individual Retirement Accounts - Being The Boss of Your Retirement

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans
How to Open My First Brokerage Account
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments)
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Coronavirus Update – Do You Think They Are Listening To Your Plan?
I’ll make 2 quick assessments.  I’m of the belief that we are moving too slow and in a fragmented manner. Tone at the top, is when the highest leader of an organization sets the direction and PLAN which gives everyone instructions on what to do.  Assessment  1 -The tone from our leaders has been slow --- despite the rumors people are spreading--- there is no “National Holiday” that has been declared. Something like this would have to come from our President and federal government.  So what does that mean, you need to be listening and looking to your local city and state leadership for direction because each and every city will deliver their own instructions. This is fragmented and leads me to believe that the handling of this outbreak will take longer than may be needed.  We’ve gone from different messages: a) go about your daily lives, b) social distances, to c) hunker down??  Very early on you saw that I’ve called for a national holiday. This approach goes further than social distancing because it tells everyone to stay home but reassures the masses that they can pay bills if they cannot work from home. You identify the sick, give them help outside of our fragile hospital system, don’t expose others, and try to assist the stores and restaurants with supply chain and safety measures for shoppers. For example, set limits against hoarding and push people to order ahead and people of means can continue ordering from restaurants thru delivery if done safely.  Assessment  2 -  I called for testing --- this reduces the panic in the air. The truth is if you show any symptoms of any type of sickness you need to isolate yourself, remember there is no cure. But testing helps to comfort us and know what we are dealing with. Thanks to companies like Roche Diagnostics stepping up, they are producing over 400K testing kits each week to now assist the country.  The elderly and vulnerable need to seek help first and if you think your symptoms are progressing then you should seek assistance.

So currently, I know some people are still physically going to work and I can attest not everyone is an essential employee. I know some schools are still open. This uncoordinated approach IMO delays stopping the spread. 

What Comes Next?
Well let’s think about what I’ve laid out above.  A fragmented approach is leading to companies and schools closing on their own terms. By not doing it in coordination you will now have a fragmented and unclear approach to layoffs, furloughs, and how employees get paid. Even if you can work from home, what decisions will your company take if their sales/productions/revenues dip?  Remember this is NOT just in America but across the world. So my math leads me to believe that things will get worse before they get better and yes that means Recession signals.  I’m mentally planning for a Recession and making minor adjustments. 

1st Budget and Save ร   If the government does NOT help out you and me (main street) you need to build and rely on your saving to ride through the rough patch.  
2nd Renegotiate Bills ร  Call everyone but the Water/Sewer, Gas, Electric Cos.  If you pay for cable, internet, cell phone, and mortgages now is the time to determine if you need that service and IF they value your business. For example, sorry Sports Fans – if all sports is canceled do you really need the Sports Cable Package??
3rd Refinance ร  Because of poor leadership, the markets are panicked. For example, you’re not crazy if you got a response from a bank last week quoting you pretty bad rates. I learned that the market which buys mortgage products seized up. Good news is call back, the Federal Reserve last night indicated they will directly begin buying mortgage products so RATES SHOULD START going back down. Don’t settle

Me personally, I can’t watch the NBA, English Premier League, or March Madness right now so it’s time for cable to go. My refinance is in progress and I’ll keep you posted on my savings.

What About My Retirement?
Once you have your budget in-line, the savings will slowly start to roll in. Then it’s time to think about your individual retirement account (IRA). I don’t like to advise people on what to buy and do because we all think differently. If you read what I posted above, my thesis is the actions NOT being taken by our leadership will prolong this crisis. If my thesis is correct, the market will fall further and we may technically reach recessionary levels.  The reason I like to invest is you can tell the real from the fake. Many people like to give you their opinion, but would they place their own $$ on what they are telling you. To mess with people, I often ask them would they be willing to bet on it…and that’s when they get quiet. If you have done the work, the rest is to follow your instinct.  I have a savings account that allows me ride this store out no matter what happens. That allows my IRA to truly be just that…a retirement accounts.  So for my real ballers, think about this concept. If you believe the markets are NOT going to do well for awhile --- why stick around. I call it my Sandlot Move ร  I take my ball and leave, like Jay Z said “I don’t need the NFL, the NFL needs me”.  If you don’t know what he’s talking about here --- keep working on the pillars we lay out here and you soon will. I make moves when I say so and in this environment, I don’t need to put my retirement account at risk because some guy in an ivory tower tells me wait it out. So what if I miss some of the rebound, I’m still good. I’ll catch the markets when I can go to an NBA game again --- or maybe an NFL game Jay J

Urb Lesson of the Day – Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA) are not something to be taken lightly. First diversify your IRA. My buddy told me something that I thought was no longer widely practiced after the days of Worldcom and Enron going out of business. He mentioned he had most or all of his 401K retirement account in his company stock.  It’s great to be a believer in your company but you must be diversified.  Before Enron: Many companies matched 401K funds in Company stock. Employees were often required to hold the stock until retirement or closure of the account. That IS NO LONGER THE CASE. You're more than welcome in leaving in all company stock but know you are gambling and not investing. You could win BIG or go BUST.   My advice is even if you work at Apple, ensure that your entire 401K is not in company stock AND if your match is in company stock --- elect to have it go cash (Stable Value Fund) or something like the S&P 500. Then later when you evaluate your account (each month or quarter) you can CHOOSE to have some of it going to company stock. Never let someone choose for you. Boss move