Are Systems Inherently Fragile or are they Broken - CrowdStrike | Economies | Politics | Health

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Just wakin' up in the mornin', gotta thank God

I don't know, but today seems kinda odd

No barkin' from the dog, no smog

And mama cooked the breakfast with no hog

Ice Cube ~ It Was a Good Day

Fragility - Vantage Point: CrowdStrike (CRWD)

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc NASDAQ: CRWD

I was just wakin' up in the mornin' and I already has a few messages. Computer screens around the world were BLUE, literally, and companies were feeling the BLUE. They were finding out that their businesses were coming to a screeching halt. Airlines could not fly, employees could not login, and the government could not operate. The news was a "normal" update from the cybersecurity company, CrowdStrike, contained errors and had disrupted how Microsoft computers were operating. Ahhh who cares. Well, I like to put things into perspective by providing some context. Roughly 70% of computer systems run Microsoft software and I've recently heard CrowdStrike is the endpoint detection solution for a majority of companies. For me directly, it meant that I was not able to log into my company laptop. I had two simple takeaways from this event:

1. Systems are Fragile - It's amazing that one faulty update, that happens frequently, brought companies and their systems down. How does that happen??

2. CrowdStrike's Reach - I know CRWD is big, but I felt their reach firsthand

Value Trading - I've been watching this stock for quite some time and used this opportunity to buy some options in CRWD as the stock fell hard and fast Friday. The day went by and finally at 3:45 I received a message on how I needed to fix my laptop to get logged in. Then strangely I saw a message saying that I had purchased some stock in CRWD. But I had not placed an order? Remember when I said that I had been watching this stock? Well, I had an "open" order that basically would be triggered if for some strange reason CRWD were to drop to levels I thought were worth buying. Maybe I believe that systems can be fixed just like that update I received. 

Fragility - Vantage Point: Economies and Ecosystems

I have often written about the boom then bust nature of economies. In the economic world we call this growth and then recession or inflation and then deflation. The question is why does this happen? Is the system fragile, are ALL systems fragile -- or is the system broken? I'm not here to truly answer the question today, but I wanted to share this question after watching the CRWD issue bring businesses to their knees. From an economic perspective:

1. Economic Fragility - Will debt bring the US to its knees?

    OR

2. Economies Inherently Broken - Is this part of the regularly scheduled program?

How about our crazy weather. For the first time, in a long time my old city Chicago was impacted by a tornado that touched down. Shingles flew off my roof of the home I still own there and then at my current home I think I heard my howling from the fast-paced winds as the house shook. From an ecosystem perspective:

1. Ecosystems Are broken? - Is the rapidly changing climate going to continue to erode coastlines, cause houses to fall of mountainside cliffs, tornados to touch down in the Midwest and cities to flood around the world?

    OR

2. Ecosystems are Fragile - Are systems inherently fragile and this is how it is and will always be?

Fragility - Vantage Point: Politics

I'll let you fill in the section. Is the system broken or is politics inherently fragile? When the US, the superpower of the world, sees an assassination attempt of a former president during a campaign -- are we really just like the rest of world and ALL politics is fragile? Or have we gotten to the point where the system is broken.

Fragility - Vantage Point: Health

Finally, what better sums up fragility than health. I'm watching President Biden on the campaign trail and compare what I am seeing to my experiences with my aging parents. Is that what we are all thinking? This week, I listened to a neighbor describe her husband's response to chemotherapy as he battles cancer and recalled how that hit a similar tune to experiences in my family. 

I've read and continue to follow the stories around Nate Robinson's health. He was literally called 'Superman' as the 5'9 former NBA guard won 2 slam dunk contests catapulting over people. Now he is battling the fragility of his health as high blood pressure and kidney failure have dunked him to the point of depression. His story discusses how the disease may be genetic but also speaks to human desire as he chose to continue playing as he found out about the diagnosis early in his career. I relate so much to his story as I and many others battle high blood pressure and its wide-ranging effects. Are my issues genetic, caused by my choices, factors beyond my control -- or just part of a fragile system to complex to comprehend. Human life is truly amazing -- but I wonder if it's because we ALL share a story of fragility. One disease, one paycheck, one accident and fragility shows its face. But family, friends, memories, and experiences have the amazing effect of pushing fragility to the back of our minds.

It Goes Down in the DM -- Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI)

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
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ACTIVISION BLIZZARD INC

Hello everyone, I hope you're enjoying a good summer. I've been laying low from the stock market as you guys have previously read. Some may say I've missed out on this year's rise in stocks and that is partially true. Many people don't know that the market has actually risen as a result of primary 7 stocks that have been very hot because of the latest buzzword AI - Artificial Intelligence. So if you've owned NVIDIA, MICROSOFT, META PLATFORMS (formerly FACEBOOK), APPLE, ALPHABET (aka GOOGLE), AMAZON, TESLA then you've done very well this year, however; all other stocks have just done BLAH. 

So I've opted for the slow and less risky approach while the government tries to still cool down what has been referred to as an overheating economy. As interest rates have gone up, I've focused more on taking advantage of those increased interest rates to collect 4 to 5% on the cash I'm sitting on in my retirement and personal bank accounts. I have stayed invested in investment account, but I've not been overly active. So what has worked for me:

I've continued to rely on my Mansa Musa network of friends. If you're not sure what this network is about, just run a search on my blog and get familiar with this approach. When there is uncertainty in the air, I believe in strength in numbers and invest with friends. Just over a year ago my 93-year-old buddy Warren Buffett started buying shares in Activision Blizzard. 

It Goes Down in the DM - Activision

I watched patiently after Microsoft slid into Activision DMs in January 2022 to the tune of $69 billion to hook up. As Buffett saw they were willing to 'put a ring on it', his company bought roughly 50 million. When we invest in companies hooking up, we hope they make it all the way to the alter. If you're a sports person, we hope the trade for the star player goes through. Two things subsequently happened that may me want to jump on board:

Back in May 2022, the stock market was falling and there was rumblings that these two were not going to make it to the alter. The trade might get cancelled. In the stock world, it's usually because US and international governments have to bless the deal to ensure it's not anticompetitive. This is like your parents blessing your marriage or the owners blessing the trade. This blessing was getting pushback in the US and UK. So there was VALUE as the stock dropped. What did I do, I decided to gamble with my Mansa Musa buddy Warren Buffet. I jumped in at the range of $69 - $75 a share.

I don't play poker but I and Warren Buffett were making a bet that the merger (aka hook up) would go through. If it did...if they made it to the alter the predetermined buyout price would be $95 a share. I like simplicity sometimes when I invest and I thought I was getting a discount on a great stock which I don't mind owning. The bonus or side bet is if this great stock gets the blessing to get married - then I get the guaranteed upside to $95 a share. In short Activision's stock should rise as long as Microsoft gets the blessing of it's parents (in the form of governments across the world). This got nasty like Real Housewives and went to court in the US, but the blessing finally happened. What happened to my simple thesis from over a year ago. 

Don't believe me, well go back look for yourself:

May 2022: First Post on Activision: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2022/05/the-stock-market-is-falling-will-i-be.html

July 2022: Second post: https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2022/07/inflation-stagflation-recession-either.html

Where is Activision now:

Keep On Pushing - Q2 Market Outlook Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

With Quarter 1 2020 in the books, I wanted to capture a few of the headlines coming across my screen that I'm paying close attention too:

What you Should Know:

1. Unemployment numbers are on the rise
2. The Federal Reserve is printing money an unprecedented levels - rates have lowered as they help unfreeze the mortgage markets
3. Shelter-In Place is sparking a rise in internet companies
4. Deals are being lost but the big ones are going through
5. SBA Loan Details

Jobs Number:
- A record 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week (Labor Department).  Last week saw the biggest jump in new jobless claims in history, surpassing the record of 695,000 set in 1982. Many economists say this is the beginning of a massive spike in unemployment that could result in over 40 million Americans losing their jobs by April.

Interest Rates:

- 30 Year Mortgage are at lowest levels of: 3.4%

- Mortgage Applications up 15.3% 

- Refinance up 26%

Note: One company said they received 8K refinance requests day

Investment Themes:

Invest in Internet Related Companies:

- Match Group disclosed that Tinder interactions are up. But it is not resulting in a large number of  new customer adds just yet

- Zoom Media (NASDAQ: ZM) is winning the marketing war. Everyone thinks Zoom and Slack (NYSE: WORK) are the only telework software out there. There are many but Microsoft Teams (Microsoft: MSFT), Go To Meeting, are go to collaboration and communication tools.

- Also cyber security software is in high demand. To help my client with the Coronavirus crisis, I manned the call support line and took calls from all over the world for the first time in my life. Every major client was working remote and more importantly I listened to the name of the software being used: Zscaler and many remote authentication and identity management tools are needed NOW more than ever.

Deal or No Deal

Madison Square Garden (NYSE: MSG)  – The owner of the NY Knicks just recently spun off their restaurants business. Hmmm I think someone may be separating the good assets from the bad assets.

Xerox (NYSE: X) – Some Mergers are no longer being pursued. HP is no longer being courted by Xerox.

Sprint (now merged under T-Mobile TMUS) - Some Mergers were pushed through. One of my biggest wins was Sprint and this deal closed today!!! T-Mobile required their 16 banking partners to come through with the funding --- Deal Closed

Helicopter Money - The last line of defense for the capital system under stress is to bail everyone out. I sh!t you not in economics its called the helicopter money strategy. Well for anyone looking to get a Small Business Loan, I captured some of the details here:

SBA Loan Details:

• Small Business Administration (SBA) Loans are available beginning Friday
• All existing SBA-certified lenders are eligible
• All FDIC-insured banks and Credit Unions are eligible
• The SBA is developing a portal for borrowers without existing relationships to find local lenders

      SBA Loan Terms:

• 0.5 interest rate with 2- year term
• Payments are being deferred for 6 months
• Partial or full loan forgiveness avail depending on layoffs (not happening) and certain qualified expenses
• The loans are 100% guaranteed by SBA
• The loans are administered by individual lenders

Same Companies....New Tricks (McDonald's, Best Buy, Groupon)

McDonald's Late Night Breakfast Cravings

Sometimes I feel like I could be a Fortune 500 CEO, especially when they take an idea right outta my head. Let's take the Golden Arches.  I've had this idea buzzing around in my head for years and they finally took the plunge.  McDonald's is bringing breakfast to a late night menu near you.  Sorry Denny's I think a few people make be making a quick stop at the drive thru.

Read All About It Link

Store-In-A-Store Continues With Best Buy

Best Buy continues the JC Penney concept of stores within a store.  I wonder if this is the concept for companies that have been left for dead.  Ouch...Microsoft has teamed up with Best Buy and there with be a Microsoft store within your local store.  This is such a fabulous concept Samsung has decided it will also place stores within Best Buy.  I guess they will likely win over me...because I love 1 STOP SHOPPING...but does that make this a department store??

Linky

I know I'm not here to make fun of them but rather tell you how stopping in at the drive thru can make you money.  If you think either of these will be a big hit check the stocks out.  Best Buy is finding more reasons for you to stay in the store and McDonald's want your after the bar pit stop to include something you would normally eat in the morning, anyways!

Groupon

Predictions of their demise were off. This company has stabilized since the departure of Andrew Mason, the former CEO. The stock price has rebounded and Groupon "might" be maturing. They are leaving deals open longer which was my biggest complaint (sort of) and a reason why I never signed up for Groupon. This means I can get the deal when I actually need the item and not just serving as impulse purchases.  And you just may start buying things like you do on Amazon at Groupon.  Some of you already know that Groupon sells actual goods and they have been competitive on a number of items and want to be your top destination for shopping. Stay tuned on how this plays out but its has certainly rebounded , albeit there wasn't much lower it could go.

Build Your Own Case Study: Barnes and Noble (BKS)

I am good with numbers but unfortunately I am behind the 8 ball this year when it comes to posting my thoughts.  I've kept busy doing a lot of research to maintain a thoughtful blog.  Based on feedback you'll notice some changes to the site. First, many people will be happy to know that we've responded to your calls for any easy way to know what stocks I'm interested in. I developed a quarterly 'Subscription Service' to highlight long-term value stocks.  I continue to appreciate the feedback and the questions and we will definitely explore posts about socials issues, retirement, and life/wellness in the future.  They'll probably have some sort of financial bend to them so I won't stray to far away from the roots.

I want to talk about how to invest and why we all can do it.  I was just relaxing after taking in a couple of "Mad Men" episodes on Netflix and noted that I should revisit some of my old writings.  I flashed back to my thoughts earlier in the year in the posting "Companies Watch". I wrote the following about Barnes and Noble (BKS):

Barnes and Noble – I am a sucker for stocks on the decline and Barnes and Noble is showing up on my radar. The other day is dropped roughly 20% on news that they were changing their future outlook lower.  That is never good and investors let them have it.  BKS even mentioned making changes such as spinning of their NOOK business.

Price: $11.65 

If you noticed on January 12th, I brought BKS to your attention because it was a large company that's going through some tough times.  These companies can be good investments if you keep a level head and strong stomach.  I want to show you how I built a case study and how you can build yours. 

---

Things to Do:

1. Identify stocks that are need further analysis and write their pros and cons down.

2. Determine if the price is right by looking for discounts or mismatches in the prices.

3. Figure out what the price will be in future...think long term.  

4. Research the company to find out what and who supports your view of this stocks. This could range from charts, to investors to new articles.

 5. Stick to your guns and only buy the stock when the price is right.

6. Key a watchful eye out for strategic events that could tell you to buy more or sell the stock.

See how it might work, case study for BKS:

1. BKS 

Pros: Borders is gone, Nook/readers are hot right now

Cons: Amazon, decline in readership

2. See price above: $11.65

3. ?? My initial thoughts was say $20

4. Saw some good articles on e-readers and a few tough ones on book sales

5. I didn't buy BKS but after the huge drop I like the thought of purchasing some shares

6. Followed the story and saw these events as positive:

- Barry Rosenstein runs  JANA Partners which disclosed roughly a 7 million share position in BKS.  BKS was up big (around 18%) and rumors have already started to rise about will he force them to split the company up. 

- Microsoft invests in the Nook e-reader

- An investor who started off negative has has a change of heart. See Whitney Tilson 

You Are What U Read...

Time to play "What the Headlines Tell U"! Again I think reading is definitely fundamental and taking a look at the latest headlines can give you some insight into what's going on in the market and what direction it may be headed. Here are some headlines from today:

Parsons is in as Citigroup's Chairman
GE's earnings results are expected to drop
UK, US having thoughts of nationalizing banks
State Street downgraded
AIG losing key employees
Commercial Real-Estate could begin collapsing
Satyam could be sold
UK Pound hits 23 year low
Cold Weather makes Orange Juice and Nat Gas Prices Rise
Microsoft Earnings to Take a Hit
Dow Gains 280 pts, but at 8200

After going through some of the larger stories of the day. Here is what they mean to me. Citigroup, GE, State Street, and UK & US nationalizing banks all mean that the financial sectors is still heading lower. Note some of these banks received money from the government already through the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). And if there earnings are still dropping then the outlook doesn't appear good.

Microsoft earnings to take a hit cannot be a positive sign for the technology sector. This will affect PC makers, chip makers, and retailers. A mainstay in the home like Microsoft is having softer sales and that can't be a good sign either.

Satyam is exploring options of selling themselves and this further highlights that transparency is needed and greed is bad. This Indian company's CEO managed to distort their earnings for years and billions of dollars were reported incorrectly.

The Dow was up yesterday, however notice the level is at 8200. Let's flashback to my post in November which called for the Dow to fall under 8000...like it did the other day and possibly see some resistance at the 7700 level.

Dow Prediction


Staying the course:

I have purchased the Direxion Financial Bear 3x, (NASDAQ: FAZ) because for a small investment I will be able to mimic the returns of shorting the financial markets...TIMES 3!

With Microsoft sales softening, I think again investors should consider owning the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF):

Proshares Ultrashort Semiconductors (SSG)

Wall Street Gold Medal

Going for gold might be replaced with the phrase 'Going for Phelps' one of these days. But if you are in the financial markets getting your Michael Phelps on has been difficult because the markets have been more volatile than a crazy ex-girlfriend. If you know where I am going with this she's up one day and then flying off the charts the next day in the other direction. The nice thing is I have been picking good girls lately as stocks and I haven't been whipped around as much as others have. If you followed our post just a month ago, I posted the steps to navigate these choppy markets --> http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/07/navigating-choppy-markets.html.

One again the market has had two sharp day to the downside, however most investors feeling the brunt of that pain are people exposed to the financial sector. After recent articles spooked the investment community, investors have been selling off banks and Fannie and Freddie rather quickly. There have been articles that have highlighted that another big bank may go under due to the ongoing credit crunch. Then Barron's pointed out that there is a likelihood that the government may have to bail out Fannie and Freddie which could leave current stakes invested in the government sponsored agencies worthless. All this proves is that financials suck and will continue to suck for the forseeable future. Why people choose to ignore that fact is beyond me. In your 401K plan or in your IRA, I would stick with less volatile investments at this point like the Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). This is still a solid pick because the Producers Price Index (PPI) was recently released and again inflation is steadily rising. And in my brokerage account I see myself steadily moving towards dividend yielding stocks, technology, transportation, and infrastructure plays.

And for a quick discussion on some of the stocks in my actual portfolio and/or in my stock tracker portfolio:

Collectors Universe (CLCT) - Although, you may want to smack this company like many others for spending without a conscious, they have announced a strategy to cut back on expenses now that their gem grading business is gaining traction. I hope that this business continues to take off like I observed after reading the last quarterly report and while we wait enjoy the 14% dividend this stock touts. I know the fear may be that the dividend will be cut due to such a high yield, but as long as the payments are made keep 'collecting' and participate in a dividend re-investment program (DRIP) to obtain more shares at these low prices.

Burlington Northern (BNI) - This transportation company has whethered the storm and continues to hold steady. Transports should benefit from the declining oil prices and stronger pricing power. I ain't selling until Buffet does.

Microsoft (MSFT) - Thank goodness the Yahoo mess is over and the world can move on and realize that MSFT is a world class technology company that continues to sit on an unbearable amount of cash. I would prefer that they start to increase the dividend amount so that I can get paid as I wait for great results from these guys. I would take dividends here and partipate in the DRIP.

Radisys (RSYS) - This stock reported great earnings and analysts raised the expected guidance for the next quarter by a whopping 9c! It holds steady on these tough days and usually outpaces the market on good days. It hit a bit of a rough patch after insiders sold in the last few weeks but the downside should ease and this stock should move higher.

EPD, ETE - This is a play on natural gas and I like the pipeline stocks in the future because there is good dividend insulation which should be re-invested for a great long term gain. The yield is around 7% here and is considered stable.

MOVE - This stock has rebounded from the dungeons of $2 after their earnings announcement and will move higher as real estate eventually rebounds way down the line from now.

China Digital (STV) - STV is like an ex-girlfriend and is more volatile than a Jerry Springer show. I think the international slowdown causes this stock to sag and the drop has been sharp. This stock rebounds when the market is positive and does so rather sharply. I would recommend adding to your positions slowly.

AK Steel (AKS) - I believe is still a solid company but get out of the way of the commodities. Its like trying to catch a falling knife and thats not too smart.

EWJ - Great play on the downturn in the international markets, especially Japan.

OPTR - Don't know a lot about this stock which met my screen. It was up sharply then retreated. I don't own this stock but would look to take profits after another quick run up.

It Must Be Butter...

It must be butter, cause we’re on roll! Now I have to give credit to my boy, Stuart Scott from ESPN who popularized this phrase. Another pioneer who is doing big things, appreciates hip hop, and changed the way we view our television hosts. Now hopefully I can do that for you through this site and on the subject matter of financials (mainly stocks).


~Urbanomics Update ~

Yes sir how did you like the last post where we analyzed Advent Software (ADVS). Just two months ago I told you that this stock, which was already moving in a positive direction, had more room to go. And you know through my investment style all we needed was what I have called a catalyst (Use the search tool to see how many times I talked about catalysts) Now in my short time of watching the market, I’ve noticed that a number of stocks move quickly up or down after a catalyst has been communicated to the masses. That catalyst for ADVS was apparent to a few of us in a number of different ways. Once we found our entry point into this stock, we paid attention to the information that ADVS was giving us through its press releases. I know your thinking, now how hard was that!!! Sorry no magical equation, we just simply paid attention to the fact that ADVS was disclosing through press releases that business was cranking through the roof. In one of their releases ADVS told us that they have developed or enhanced a new product and tons of their clients were signing up to use. Now again, I’m not a genius but this sounds like a solid indicator that their earnings are going to move higher over time, which means the stock price should follow...this was confirmed early through our daily ritual of looking for information on our stocks (See Zacks Newsletter disclosure). So the stock didn’t just take off over night…it was creeping here and there giving us a number of times to buy in at great prices. Remember, ADVS was recommended by URBANOMICS @ 39.25 (click here for: ADVS Recommendation ) and has been up between 15-25% since that recommendation.

But a well known secret that I believe savvy investors take advantage of it was I call the Water Cooler Investor effect. This happens when everybody and their mother get the inside tip from a website, the news, or a friend that a stock is going to do well. When this happens, a catalyst has triggered your Water Cooler Investors to jump on board and we will see huge trading volumes in those stocks. This is what happened to ADVS...it reported earnings (catalyst) confirming exactly what they had told us in press releases for the past few months and when this was discussed in their Earnings Release Conference Call, major news outlets spread the news to our Water Cooler Investors. What was the result, hordes of investors flocked to ADVS and raised the stock up roughly 19% in one day. This was the Leading Percentage Gainer of the Day yesterday and made us all very happy. I will now recommend that you sell ADVS at these levels because while they will continue to grow, the effect of our catalyst will die down in the weeks and months to come.

The perfect scenario is that you own alot of the stock, sell enough to gain your original investment back and some profits, and they play with the house's money. ADVS will be a great stock for years to come but unless you own a substantial amount we can put these gains to better use. I often get the call you show you more proof that our strategy works here at Urbanomics, well do a quick review of some of our recommendations:

ADVS - a return of over 30% in the last three months
MSFT - up 9% today as a result of a catalyst; up 30 since first recommended
RSYS - up 9% today b/c of catalyst; up roughly 5 - 30% depending on when you bought it
BBY - a large value stock that is up 10%
BNI - a large value play that is up almost 10% since first recommended

We also highlight the stock that could do better:
Rite Aid (RAD) - recommended @ 4.45, I still believe in Rite Aid and believe this should be bought at 3.95 or lower to build up our shares in this stock.
Avid Technology (AVID) - This stock was up and could have been sold for a profit; recommended @ 32 and now at 28; I believe that AVID has a longer road to recovery but this stock should be repurchased at levels that approach its 52wk low of 25.55
Adaptec (ADPT) - This one could have been sold for a profit; check the press releases b/c private equity is tightening the reigns around this company in trying to win a board seat. Superman price is 3.23, but nibble at building positions whenever the stock drops below 3.40