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Showing posts with label Stimulus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stimulus. Show all posts

Sunday, October 18, 2020

How Netflix Shows Help Me Invest - Mindhunter | Black Mirror | Beats

 

Mindhunter - This show is about the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and how they first formed the Behavioral Science Unit. Simply put, this is the unit that came up with a methodology for investigating the murders that most local police forces couldn't solve. They coined the phrase "serial killer' and how to profile people. Oddly enough, maybe we do operate in "patterns" and when you consider history...it can often be used to solve the most complex murders. The irony in the show is how often people "back then" said this type of thing doesn't happen around here. I guess when it comes to investing, I try to create a profile of the economy. I ask myself what events and triggers are likely to occur because of my profile analysis. I do lots of research, as history tends to tell a story that often and sometimes unfortunately repeats itself. Finally, I look back in time for patterns. Patterns, especially those found in charts historically help me find great entry points to plant seeds --- or invest in companies.  

The simple mind easily complains about the athlete on TV who grinds through a physical game and calls them spoiled brats...the mindhunter wonders who pays all the salaries of the athletes on a team and how can he/she afford that payroll.  Makes you ponder -- if a particular league is 75% one race --- should coaches and executive management look more like the end product.  I guess they've never heard of no taxation without representation. 

More to come from me on Ice Cube's Contract with Black America. Just imagine if the decision - makers (Congress) had a guide to some of the items that could improve life for African Americans. Decent thought Cube, but bend your mind further --- why doesn't Congress simply reflect the represent 15% of the population that African Americans represent. No taxation without real representation. 



In The Dark - This show gets a thumbs up from me. I like the premise of the lead character being a blind person who has a messy life. We all do, so it's refreshing that they add layers of complexity to this show. It even turns the table on of the white savior complex as a black person actually is capable of helping the damsel in distress. While this theme is short-lived,  they go back to a white person saving the day but they tried. I cite this movie, because eventually as a society we are SLOWLY moving away from fake narratives and getting more real. Black people can help and save white people too. The cute white girl that's blind can have a life full of messy complex vices. This is REAL. Just like it's real when states are struggling to make ends meet. It again doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize they will have to find creative ways to balance their budgets. Hence my mindhunter investments into stocks like: Ceasars, Draftkings, and other gaming stocks. Just image that, the culture that holds puritan values so high needs gaming to save the day. It's just reality. When I travel to the United Kingdom, sports betting is prevalent on every corner. I can walk into a store that looks a lot like how a cell phone store is constructed here in the US. Instead of buying an I-Phone you can place a bet. Makes you wonder who is actually "In The Dark". 

Dark - After Black Mirror, the show "Dark" was easily next favorite series to watch. I couldn't spoil this show for you even if I tried. It's a German series that attempts to discuss how life is connected in more ways that we can imagine. I like the premise because as humans we attempt to dumb down life by only talking about the duality of life. What does this mean --- well have you ever heard someone describe things as simply black or white...good versus bad/evil?? This shows turns that concept on its head and blows up the duality narrative of life. We all know the concept is BS but we go along for the ride at every step of the way. What explains gay marriage, legalized drugs and gambling, priests who abuse their power, white supremacists', and so many other complex subjects. Boardwalk Empire shows us that will enough $$$ the prohibition of alcohol can be done away. The three-fifths clause in the constitution shows you how dark the human mind can delve to justify a means to an end. I am pro-business but I also recognize that business invest in the areas that need transformation --- in government we call this entitlements. I believe in social values so why don't we pay government workers private sector rates so that they can put food on the table and fund their own retirements and even possibly rid the system of pensions (or contractual obligations) that now many want to backtrack on and not pay? Why is this all so DARK, maybe because we try to simplify this into a dual world - good vs bad and black vs white...and it ain't that simple.


Black Mirror - Black Mirror is hands down my favorite show and describes my persona to a "T". I couldn't understand why so many don't see the harm of social media like I clearly see it. I've only had "that feeling" I get when I log into Facebook one other time and that's when I played a slot machine in Vegas. I've only done it once and it was crazy how it made me feel. I almost lost my entire $40 dollars and was prepared to go against my principle of adding more $$$ when I hit it $400 large. Then stupidly I thought well maybe I could do it again. I probably gave another $60 dollars back and decided. Enough was enough...I pulled the plugged. That dopamine effect was a feeling I've never felt before until I logged onto Facebook. The need for likes, the need to only post my travels, night outs, and big purchases. Then I decided 5+ years ago, this is overrated. So I don't log on and when I do, you get the good, bad and ugly of my life. I remind people, if someone is giving you anything for free in life --- YOU are the product. 



Beats - Finally, I wanted to highlight the movie Beats. This movie is about making it out of your environment and overcoming adversity. I don't always like the background of the need for music to black people's away out --- but music is in our DNA whether you are African, Jamaican, or African-American. I remind people to expect the road to be hard. The biggest thing I tell people to do nowadays is learn how to be independent. Find a service, skill, product that people need and be supply them with that legally. Negotiate your own terms and sleep better at night because I have no one to blame but me. More to come but I signed by first major business contract just a few months ago. I saw the tactics used against me were signs of systemic oppression because I became woke to how people were making money off of me the "talent". I appreciate the introduction, but why do you get paid tens of thousands of dollars when I'm the consultant and doing the actual work. I will tell you about this journey soon and how I am hiring people of color in an IT landscape that screams for diversity.

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My job is to help the largest corporations in the world to simplify their most complex and riskiest businesses. So I do that for people here when it comes to the economic engine of the world. It's a machine that has patterns. People at as if the world operates in a black and white manner but it simply does not. Right now its simple, the US government has printed 13 Trillion dollars. Most of that has gone to companies. Those companies are skyrocketing as their stocks are going through the roof. Roku is up so much that I am simply making trades each week that will make money betting the impossible will not happen. For example, Roku will NOT increase 30% in one week and if does not, please cut me a check. I usually execute these trade when I am supposed to be most scared --- when Roku reached its all-time high of $239 just in the last week. They want me to be scared to put the trade on but I'm not. I simply do it for the culture -- we can be talk about how wrong the system is or we can Robin Hood it and help our folks. I don't see them listening and trust me a system this rigged ain't changing anytime soon. Here is me slamming Roku. I trust you can do math on my gains. Any trades highlighted in Green means I only held the trade for 7 day, IMO a week. Not bad for a guy with a 9-5 and a side hustle.


Note: I'm masking my trades as I hope to dust off an alert service startup company I had dreams of running over 10 years ago. For almost a year, I've been literally an open book in hopes of teaching and showing people a different way. I'm not here to motivate, just to plant seeds. If we plant enough seeds, change gon' come. 



Saturday, October 17, 2020

The US Economy Has a Stimulus Hangover

 I fear the US economy is starting to feel the hangover effect, after binging on $13 Trillion, yes with a "T", trillion dollars of stimulus. I'm not going to argue whether it's needed or not because I previously said stimulus to main street America is definitely needed. But the hangover reminds me of how I felt after a Saturday night of partying in Chicago once we officially transitioned from winter to warm weather --- everyone was out drinking.

When I think about government stimulus, everyone this spring and summer was wasted off of stimulus. If you were unemployed you got an extra shot of stimulus in the form of $600 added to your unemployment pay. For small businesses and then surprisingly large business (remember my post on even the LA Lakers organization getting PPP funds), we benefitted from stimulus if we promised to bring workers back. We soon found out many of my business colleagues graciously took the money and then far too many decided NOT to bring workers back --- why because they were more concerned about tying the funds to when business would come back. But being in the RISK MANAGEMENT business, this is fundamentally flawed thinking. The PPP experiment as I call it was a social experiment to see if as a nation we could band together and do what's best for our neighbor financially. I'm sad to say, the experiment didn't work as business people fought it along the way, while cashing in the money. During a health pandemic where people SHOULD stay home quarantined, you cannot expect business to return back to normal --- use government taxpayer money to keep people afloat. 

Note to anyone reading -- What kept people going was the unemployment checks and the extra bump of $600, it caused an e-commerce boom. How do I know, well I am in the Cyber Risk Management business. I have been getting calls from all over the country to help people do more business across the internet. My most amazing story is a company that sells boats and luxury yachts in Florida. They called me and we discussed business. At the beginning of the pandemic, no business because their model was predicated on customers coming in. But they quickly learned they needed a robust web platform as they were getting boat and yacht orders left and right. It sounds like most of us in Corporate America could keep going as we could work from home and buy boats and yachts but I wonder about the front line worker who is exposed to the virus on a daily basis if you're driving a bus, riding the train, or working the grocery checkout system. No national quarantine holiday in my humble opinion was a bad risk management move.

Why do I think we're feeling a hangover let's look at the news:

Company Continue to Announce Layoffs

  • Airlines - this industry announced 35K job cuts and some anticipate this number will top 100K
  • Disney - announced 28K layoffs
  • Salesforce - initial pledges were made to not layoff, well soon thereafter they announced 1K layoffs

Jobless Claims Continue to Rise

As an investor, how do I keep track of economy. I use one indicator called the Jobless Claims report from the US Labor Department. The data is staggering:

  • As of September 30, 2020 25 million required jobless benefits 
  • Last week (Oct 10, 2020), - 898,000 new persons applied for jobless benefit aid for the first time
  • To put this data into context, during the 2008 Financial Crisis that I believe was the worth since the Great Depression, the number of first-time applicants peaked @ 665,000 
COVID-19 Continues to Spike 

  • France noted that 40% of it's hospital beds are filled w/ COVID patients
  • Europe cases are rising
  • The rural US is now the leading source of new cases
  • And unfortunately people are fatigued or bored with staying home
Like a patient addicted to stimulus, the stock market is calling for more. What happens if we don't get more --- a painful withdrawal??

The ride up has been nice if you bought into e-commerce and stay at home stocks: think ROKU, PELETON, AMAZON, FACEBOOK. Everything else hasn't moved much...need proof I believe the S&P500 is up only 4%. So my barbell approach is still working. My retirement funds are safe (not invested in the market) and my investments in ROKU and Collectors, Sprint, Alibaba Allergan and others have surprisingly made me a tidy fortune during the pandemic. Real Estate is the other area where I'm poking my nose in. 

A reminder to not drink the Kool-Aid --- you'll avoid a hangover. Stick to the pillars.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

The Government Makes It Rain --- Stimulus To the Rescue

Coronavirus Update – Shutdown Has Finally Started

Thanks to the great leadership exhibited from New York, California, and Chicago the nation is slowly shutting down city by city --- and state by state. While unbelievable, this is very necessary to starve the virus. There will be debates on how long and I remind people to look to China’s recovery and the timeline they used. For example, Wuhan the epicenter of this crisis will remove the lockdown on April 8th. SO the reality is the longer the better for the hotspots. Why I demanded leadership --- one voice, one plan. Providing risk consultation to large corporations puts you in a position to see some amazing dynamics. People will not do thing unless they know the order has come from the top…it appears countries are no different. The shutdown should be federal because if we all go into shelter at the same time, you hope we can plan to exit strategically around the same time.
Let me give you an example, if you have a missing child, technology (like the Amber Alert) has allowed for us to receive notification all at the same time rather than piecemeal.  This speeds up the likelihood of finding the child much better than sending it to one police department at a time. If the coronavirus shutdown does not come from the top, when one state recovers my question is: “Does that state allow you to travel or accept visitors from states that did not shutdown at all or that shutdown much later than your state did. Essentially this recovery could drag on longer than needed if we cannot move in a cohesive manner as a country. There could be a lack of trust in the air which is why I believe countries like Italy, China, S. Korea and others when into lockdowns all at once.
Make It Rain – Last Resort to Inflate the Economy

I am hoping for better coordination so we can begin to recover quicker and get the economy going.  The importance of the pillars we work on so hard here is to help you during these exact moments. If you have savings, you have some cushion during these bad times. See these articles, ripped from the news headlines:

“Many Americans Biggest Worry is April 1st Rent and Mortgage Payments”  -- Washington Post
“Real Estate Billionaire Barrack says Commercial Mortgages on a brink of Collapse” – Bloomberg
“Jobless Claims Soar Past 3 Million to Record High” -- CNBC
 “Mortgage Rates Surge to Highest Level Since January” – Marketwatch
“2 Trillion Dollar Stimulus Package” --- See below


These are just a few of the necessary reasons why the Federal Reserve is making it rain. It’s basically a blank check to shore up the economy until we can get a handle on the COVID-19.  Like in 2008, the market has responded with a rally since a “handshake deal” was announced just a few days ago. This rally will likely continue into the actual signing of the bill. Use this an opportune time to trade in the relief rally that is not uncommon. But when the dust settles, I am still not risking my individual retirement account funds at the moment because we know there is more to come. Mortgages need to be paid, the rent is due, businesses are asking for a bailout and jobs are being shuttered. Hopefully all this is temporary but it is a big risk. I don’t see an all clear sign, just yet.

Urb Lesson of the Day:  Account Diversification
· Savings Accounts – Gets you through the rough patches in life
· Investment Accounts – Allows you to take risks when others are NOT – like today
· Individual Retirement Accounts – This is truly for your future, why NOT wait for a sign that the recovery is strong

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Federal Reserve Announces Taper / World Improving? / Stocks on My Mind

FED ANNOUNCES a $10 BILLION DOLLAR TAPER
The Federal Reserve has been pumping billions and billions of dollars into the US economy. Today was the first step by the Fed to say that the US economy, their patient, appears to be in steady recovery mode.  The recovery appears to be steady enough that they are starting to reduce the amount of medicine they have been giving to the patient...in the form of the stimulus they have been pumping into the economy.  This was a pivotal moment in the market and the reaction so far is very positive.  Investors believe that the Fed's view that the US is in recovery mode because stocks have catapulted higher. Stay tuned and let's look back in the next 3 to 12 months from now and see if we feel more jobs being created, houses being bought, and you and your friends spending more.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101279385

ARE ECONOMIES IMPROVING AROUND THE WORLD?
I am consistently the naysayer, as I am always looking for risks that impact the markets. But I must admit the news that I have seen recently is VERY positive.  The unemployment rates are coming down in both the US and I saw a story today about the rate in the UK and this is very positive for growth around the world.  More people working means companies are hiring and people have more money to spend in the future.


STOCKS/THEMES ON MY MIND
Lululemon (LULU)- This company continues to stumble and has recently fired it's CEO for some very insensitive comments towards women.  Not the brightest move considering women are their core target group. But I also know that the YOGA and health movement is serious and people want to look the part when they get fit. I believe they are trading around roughly $59 dollars.

Caterpillar (CAT) - A company that had been in the stuck in the mud and the stock price hasn't been doing well. But they are very much impacted by global growth and with things improving this stock may make a nice move up.  Stock price has ranged from $84 to $87. I believe it trades at roughly $87 today.

Stocks Which Support Online Businesses: International Paper (IP), FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS)
I realize that more than 75% of my purchase habits happen online. I now buy my home goods online and have had dish soap, laundry detergent, door handles, and a host of other products delivered to my house. They always come in a brown corrugated box (International Paper) and are delivered primarily by UPS when I purchase items from Amazon.  I've recently heard that groceries can be bought online very soon...see Amazon "PANTRY".  I think more boxes and deliveries are coming to both your house and mine.

Health Care: I listened to a very interesting story on National Public Radio the other day.  For the first time, health care insurers are taking major steps to advertise their products in response to the Affordable Care Act.  I don't know many things but I do know 1 thing...when companies are spending billions of dollars to advertise it's because they see an opportunity to grow and gain market share.  Insurance is a business that seems to experience very little turnover once they've signed up a customer.  If I am an example, I have had the same auto and health care provider for as long as I can think. There will be a number of winners due to the expansion of the Affordable Care Act. Investors have already realized this a number of these stocks are up significantly this year...but the biggest change to the health care sections in decades will cause some serious gains for years to come.

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Please Don't Kill My Investing Vibe...

Thanks to Kendrick Lamar for producing one of my favorite tracks out there and describing my approach right now to life and investments.  Plainly said, I don't want anyone messing up my vibe of working hard, making quick and thoughtful decisions and reflecting on it all to ensure that I'm focusing on things that will make me better.  My investing vibe right now is to sit back and ride out this amazing economic and stock market recovery.  I remember how bad both were years back and we must take a moment to give props to resilient people (workers), companies, and yes even 'some' of our politicians that promoted a pro-growth environment.  I firmly believe if we had engaged in less stimulus and more cost cutting we would've been in BIG trouble.  This is what makes the field of economics and behavioral analysis so interesting to me. But before I put you to sleep...follow my vibe:

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

March Matrix Notes

I could do a follow up on why I'm a MACROVALUEQUANT, but who has time, its time to unload my thoughts and unplug from the matrix. I do a lot of reading on the train and listening to the radio and have started taking notes. In the past few weeks, I've tuned into the following discussions and readings:

Ray Dalio (find his discussion on CNBC)
Mr Dalio is the hedge fund titan who runs Bridgewater Associates and rarely makes tv appearances (I heard). After a few moments of defending his unusual methods running his firm, the man behind the world's largest hedge fund was very open about the cycle of leveraging and deleveraging and where the US is at in its cycle after the crisis. He talked about the following subjects:
He noted US Equities are cheap and will benefit from currency devaluations
The money flows will benefit equities
Portfolios are not properly weighted, too much in dollar denominated currencies
Gold is a currency that many are underweight
Stimulus will last through the 4th quarter, and private credit growth will be needed

Monday, August 03, 2009

My Reality Show: Homebuying 101

My online reality show is probably the slowest show that you've followed in awhile, but hey its still running! If you recall, my show started with trying to determine if the stimulus bill really had any stimulus to it??? So I read through some of sweet parts of the bill to see if they could get a penny pincher like me off the sidelines and contributing to a deteriorating economy. The one part of the bill that immediately attracted me what the Homebuyer Tax Credit. Yes, welcome, first time homebuyers like me. I searched high and low and I'm sometimes surprised at the lack of direct information provided to help you through what is a huge huge purchase. So far here are the rules to help you finance the purchase of your next home:

Rule 1: From a previous post, you learned to CLEAN UP YOUR CREDIT. Click here to learn about how to view your credit for free ---> Free Credit Check

Rule 2: Find a reputable bank or mortgage broker who will pull up your credit and give you a Pre-Approval amount based on your gross income and outstanding debt levels (i.e., credit card balances, car loan, student loans, etc). Knowing "How Much Home You Can Afford" is critical! My rule of thumb is try not to spend more than 80% of what your Pre-Approval amount is. If you haven't received your Pre-Approval use this rule of thumb, don't spend more than 40% of your net monthly paycheck. Remember net = take home pay. This rule prepares you for a few things things that you may still want to spend money on like: the ability to still save/contribute to your retirement, afford new expenses, and still have a life.

Rule 3: SAVE, SAVE, SAVE for at least of a 10% Down Payment. This will be a huge step in determining if you are really ready to commit to buying a home. For instance, the average condominium (in my book) is roughly $300,000. This means you need to come up with $30,000 as a down payment!!!!

Tricks up my sleeve:

- A trick to Rule #1 is to contest all questionable items on your credit report with support and in writing. The nice thing is contesting your credit history can be done online.

- The trick to Rule #2 is to follow my "Rule of Thumb" notes above. Budget for less and you will be able to sleep easier at night.

- And my last trick! For Rule#3, consider or ask if the home you are looking into qualifies for a FHA Loan. This loan is government sponsored and only requires you to put 3.5% Down!!!

Stayed tuned on how to begin your house search...

Friday, May 15, 2009

Urbanomics Market Update ~ May 15

Urbanomics Market Update
~the update for people that don’t watch the “stock channel”
GAS, the price of a barrel of oil (better know as gas you put in your car) continues to rise, so this means that the cost you pay at the pump will be rising also. I know you want to know why, and all I can tell you is that has to do with the season, speculation, and investors betting the economy is turning around.

STOCK MARKET, if you had peeked at the stock market you might have seen that it has been doing really well in the last couple of months. If you feel like you missed the party…DON’T. The reasons vary as to why it was moving up rapid (like people spending their tax checks) but it probably won’t continue going up so quickly much more. This is my opinion but the economic data doesn’t lie. The data recently released says:
  • Consumers are saving and not spending money
  • Housing foreclosures are on the rise again
  • Unemployment continues to reach record monthly numbers

WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT, the talk around the investing water coolers is the next shoe to drop is the realization that the Credit Card and Commercial Real Estate industries are hurting. In a nutshell, unemployment is bad for consumers who stop paying their credit card bills and a recession is bad for businesses that stop paying for the buildings they use. Both of these problems affect banks and real estate companies which have hundreds of billions of dollars at risk.

DOES THE STIMULUS WORK, surprisingly the answer might be yes. The stimulus plan appears to be working with estimates stating that roughly a billion dollars a day has been released in the first 80 days, I will let you do the math ($80B). And states representatives have indicated that they are putting the money to work quickly. For example, I was shocked by the potential numbers noted by the state of Texas, which says they estimate that 69,000 jobs will be saved or created through the implementation of stimulus money for transportation projects.

HOUSING, number from two key sources, the National Association of Realtors & RealtyTrac (foreclosure experts) are out.

  • Home Prices fell 14% since this time last year (Largest decline ever)
  • First-time homebuyers accounted for HALF of all new sales
  • “Distressed” (foreclosures and short sales) accounted for HALF of all transactions
  • Foreclosures filing up 32% from a year ago (RealtyTrac record)
  • 1 in every 374 housing units received a foreclosure notice

Industry Predictions: Housing may not return to normal until 2010, until then BUYERS are running the show