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Saturday, May 31, 2008

The Price is Right

As always I am looking for information to identify when our investments have reached their true valuation. This is very key because too often as investors we struggle with selling a good stock too soon or holding on to a bad one too long. It reminds you of the contestants on The Price is Right because no one can seem to guess correctly. So you know I keep my ears to the streets and this is the information I found on Clayton Williams (CWEI) and Burlington Northern (BNI).

First up is an analysis of CWEI, courtesy of ZACKS INVESTMENT RESEARCH:
We are maintaining our Buy recommendation on small-cap company Clayton Williams Energy, Inc. ( CWEI ), but raising our estimates and price objective on account of an updated price deck. The stock's recent strength of the stock makes it evident that the market is taking another look at it after staying from the Clayton story given management's appetite for wildcat exploration with less than stellar results and a highly levered balance sheet. The current surge in oil prices no doubt serves as a very important backdrop.
We believe that Clayton's proved developed reserve base is not getting the value it deserves in the market. The company is devoting more resources to oil drilling in the Permian Basin and Austin Chalk, which is expected to bring a substantial amount of oil production online in 2008 and 2009. We are raising our earnings view to $7.48 from $5.90 per share for 2008 and to $9.46 from $6.38 per share for 2009.
With prices locked in place, Clayton's revenue streams and cash flows should be consistent and more attractive to investors. Energy markets are also likely to remain extremely volatile. The company has effectively mitigated its exposure to price swings. These factors should help Clayton's price appreciate in the near term. Our revised price target of $96 is the result of a multi-faceted valuation approach anchored by our after-tax NAV estimate.


Next is a report of BNI from the Associated Press:

NEW YORK (AP) -- The chairman, president and chief executive of railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. sold 23,919 shares of common stock, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Tuesday.
In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Matthew K. Rose reported he sold the shares Thursday for $108 to $108.49 apiece.



My take on this information is that CWEI will continue to rise because of many of these things that Zacks identified in their analysis. Their report was written on Tuesday May 27 and look what the stock price did on Friday, an 11% spike to over $94. To see how far we've come on this stock read the most recent posts on CWEI. And my view of BNI is that I will closely monitor it because of the number of executives that are selling shares in the company. It concerns me but I will maintain my current position until who knows...when Buffet sells.

Urbanomics ~ A site where the average person can learn to invest, manage their finances, ask stock and retirement questions in a format that easy to understand.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Hot Topics - Oil, Housing, & the Economy

A common question people have these days is how is someone expected to maintain or get ahead when prices keep going up everywhere you look. Well, I will admit I don't have an answer for each and every person but when times get tough you have to get a real understanding of how much money you are making and even more importantly where is ALL YOUR MONEY GOING. I am in the trenches with you and we have to work even harder to win the war against debt, bill collectors, and crazy spending habits.

To win the battle we have to have a great strategy and understand what we are up against. If you are living in the same world that I am, we are fighting higher oil prices, declining home values, and a slumping economy. Here is a quick summary of our opponents:

People are losing jobs: The financial capital of the world, New York City, estimates job losses to the financial industry which also represents their highest-paid workers and a huge source of tax dollars. They are estimating the losses are very similar to the 2001 time period another time when the economy felt the impacts of a recession.

People ain't paying loans back: The Federal Reserve reported that more people are delinquent across all industry except agriculture (probably because they are making big bucks on high food prices). Some people have stopped paying their credit card bills and those numbers ironically are roughly around the same mark to the 2001 recession. They are watching closely to see if we reach levels that were similar to 1991, another period of economic recession.

Mortgages and the housing industry is a mess: Not only did buyers take on houses they could not afford but how many people do you know that bought huge places way out in some random suburb. These were incorrect bets because most jobs are not located in these remote suburbs and long commutes are very expensive and its harder to sell your home when times get tough...all bad miscalculations that have caused home prices to decline.

People are not pimpin their rides: Car industry experts are predicting people won't be buying as many new cars and threw a chance of a rebound in 2008 out the window. Need proof take this weeks forecast by Ford (F), then yesterday's comments by General Motors (GM). Both said car sales will be horrible and imagine that, GM's stock is trading a levels that haven't been seen in 26 YEARS!! So if you are buying a car, enjoy but do you really want that Range Rover now and all the gas it guzzles.

The Repo man is tired: When people were buying houses they had to keep up with their neighbors and also buy boats. As houses dropped people stopped those boat rides which take gasoline and diesel and cost hundreds and thousands to fuel. And when you can't sell because no one want to buy then you stock paying...and people have stopped paying on boats, cars, bikes and any other thing that you buy with a loan and that means that banks are calling on the REPO MAN.

POSSIBLE PLAYS
On to my recommendations after understanding your Hot Topics. The repossession industry is finally a sexy business because banks want their stuff back. Oddly enough a company came up on my screening this month (which makes sense) and we have a few stock picks for you:

Credit Acceptance Corporation (NASDAQ: CACC)
Asset Acceptance Corporation (NASDAQ: AACC) - Search Urbanomics for the recent recommendations about this stock. And notice how it has been scorching hot since then. I am waiting for any pullbacks and loading up on the REPO MAN

Urbanomics ~ A site where the average person can learn to invest, manage their finances, ask stock and retirement questions in a format that easy to understand.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Stock Tutorial & New Simulator Adds

What you will now find is a quick tutorial on how to use Urbanomics added here to the blog. First let’s start off with reading every post that you find here. I know a bit of a shameless plug but reading the posts will give you a little background on the current state of the markets, my stock selections, and more importantly when to make the purchase.

I believe in finding a strategy that works for you and then identifying perfect points of entry to invest in the stocks you’ve selected. While some investors have a top down approach, I don’t attempt to invest in stocks by building an ideal portfolio of diversified investments (that’s what mutual funds and exchange traded funds are for). Active stock selection, a bottom-up approach, allows me to capitalize on the moments where I believe the market has gotten it wrong and the odds are in my favor. This strategy is similar to poker where I then use my chips to make large purchases in a stock that gives me a highly probable opportunity of obtaining the returns…worth my risk.

Example of how it works:

1. Market Research
http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/04/i-dont-believe-underlying-economics.html
http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/04/perfect-storm.html
http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/05/hype.html

2. Stock Selection
http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/05/this-just-in.html
http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/04/touch-my.html
http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/03/picks-based-on-recent-posts.html

3. Stock Simulator
Many of the recommendations that I make will be added to the simulator for research and results tracking. For instance, the post “This Just In” I loved 4 stocks, and our strategy must be working well because a recent update finds these stocks taking off since MAY!!!:

Patriot Coal (PCX) – Since our May 1st posting, this stock has risen from 66 to the low 90s. Damn Gina, can’t believe how on the head we hit this one.
Avid Technology (AVID) – Nice gain from 20.44 to a little over 22 and some change
Owens Corning (OC) – Another nice gain from 20 to 27
Amylin (AMLN) – Solid gains from 28 to 32
Use this link to see for yourself when we selected these stocks that fit our strategy:
http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/05/this-just-in.html

Not all these picks get added to the simulator timely because I actually have a job for a living but also because I patiently wait for the most optimal discounted prices to begin accumulating shares. Here is a list of stocks being added to the simulator:

Added:
New York Times (NYT)
Move Inc (MOVE)


Honorable Mention:
Jeffries Group (JEF) – Getting closer to levels of accumulation
Amylin (AMLN) – I love the action in this stock and think that is has sooooo much upside!

Friday, May 09, 2008

The Hype

The hype comes in all shapes and forms. For most of us avid Wall Street fans we may read or hear about it through our favorite shows, blogs, or newspapers. And the hype reminds you of the teams like the New England Patriots. A great team that was poised to win it all. Many people overlook the fact that there were a number of games that New England could have and should have lost during the regular season and post season before the let down loss in the Superbowl. A number a games would have told you not to believe the hype like the Indianapolis Colts or New York Giants regular season games that exposed the Patriots. Now lets take a similar view to the market right now. Yes, people are excited because the markets are moving up and the Dow even touched 13,000 recently. But how quickly we forget what brought us to this point. The market is still suffering from the stuff that that gave it upset stomach in the first place. The hype is people like Henry Paulson coming out recently and saying that the market turmoil or upset stomach could soon be over. That's like saying that you can give the markets Pepto and this will all be over. Sorry folks, that is not the case and unemployment is now at levels that mirror the last recession in 2001 and many economists believe that it will continue to deteriorate. The financial markets are still a mess...don't believe me, as Citigroup who is throwing up and selling businesses left and right. And I am sorry for the analogies but I want this point to sink in, the markets are don't with us yet.

I won't change my stance at this point and like most of the stocks that are on our radar or that we have recommended here at Urbanomics. Take Ricks Cabaret (NASDAQ: RICK) which is up rough 13% today, H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) which took out new 52 week highs, and Coinstar (NASDAQ: CSTR) which exploded after their earnings announcement as proof that we are picking timely market plays. Ricks Cabaret is a great small cap stock that probably continues to do well even during a recession catering to big wigs who spend big bucks at their "higher-end" (no pun intended) establishments. And H&R Block should probably be coming of a strong tax season as people are eager to file and qualify for the great tax rebate check that our government came up with to stimulate the economy. It will do one thing and that's stimulate bill paying and retail business. Lastly, Coinstar is doing well after a great earnings season and they are benefitting from increased sales in their DVD kiosk business through a big contract with Walmart. I hope you also love the sector specific plays and REALIZE that high commodity prices are here to stay for awhile. Clayton Williams (NASDAQ: CWEI), AK Steel (NYSE: AKS), the exchange traded fund OIH (AMEX:OIH), and others are all great plays and make you feel a little bit better when you buy gas at the pump or buy something made from steel.

Enjoy the weekend and holla back!

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Why I Won't Sell(out)

I won't sell out because I keep it real, you know what I'm saying. I mean that's my job here at Urbanomics, to keep it real and uncut. And the problem is this tag gets thrown on a lot of people all the time. Take your favorite hip hop artist and you get a real quick example of what I mean. Let's look at 50 Cent, the hardest rapper, forget rapper...man alive. He took nine bullets and lived to rap about it through his music. Who can forget the debut album, "Get Rich or Die Tryin'", which exploded on the scene in 2003 laced with gangsta rhymes, tight beats and catchy hooks. I won't test his gangsta, with tracks titled:

~Many Men (the hook goes "wish death upon me")
~ What Up Gangsta
~ Don't Push Me


And everyone will remember "In Da Club" and "Wanksta" as memorable hits that put 50 on the radar. My how quickly times have changed. Now I won't call my man 50 Cent a sellout but many have questioned the general since the release of that first album. Maybe it was the tracks that he later dropped such as "Candy Shop" or "Amusement Park" or is it just human nature to take shots at the guy on top by calling them a sellout and wishing for his demise from the thrown.


So what does all this have to do with stocks? Well many people sell or sell(out) on stocks because their stocks made it big...kinda like 50 Cent did. As documented in my last post, I highlighted Clayton Williams Energy Inc. It is one of the high flyers of the year but it wasn't always that way. This company first came up on my radar way back in 2006. Yep, it was January 2006 when I made my second wave of investments in the oil industry. A year two before that you may remember major purchases like PetroChina that we made before the great Warren Buffet
revealed his acquisition of a large number of their shares also. A small oil and gas exploration company called Clayton Williams made a splash on my stock screener. With small victories in my portfolio, I was looking for more small and mid cap stocks to purchase with the opportunity for huge upside. Run a chart of this stock since the beginning of 2006 and you will quickly learn that this stock was trading down since the beginning of 2008. But as Warren Buffet has always mentioned if you believe that you have obtained a stock at a discounted price then hold onto that investment until its true intrinsic value has been reached. Well it caused me great pains to watch my investment drop to levels of roughly 30% declines at some points, but you have to think long term! The economics behind oil and gas were pointing in the right direction and all it took was good management to pull this company up off the ground. Today CWEI has taken out new 52 week highs once again and this wouldn't have been hard to see. Going into its earning CWEI sold some of its oil fields which is guaranteed to present a nice upside to short term earnings going into its quarterly earnings meeting. After this meeting the market loved what it heard and pushed CWEI up 7% more on the day. On the year CWEI has run up over 100% and I am still not looking to sell anytime soon. I ain't no sell(out) just because CWEI is hot. If the fundamentals look good I am sticking with my stock and keeping it real. Take 50 Cent for example even though people have taken shots at him, his second album sold over 1Million copies in JUST 4 days.




Knowing when to sell is a tough thing so we will look at some times when we have gotten it right and also some thoughts from the big dogs that do this for a living.

Holla

Thursday, May 01, 2008

This Just In...

I ran a screen tonight and recent stocks that have come to my attention are:

Patriot Coal (PCX)
AVID Technology (AVID) - $20.44
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN)
Owens Corning (OC) - 20.56
Biomimetic Therapeutics (BMTI) - 9.65 * This one has taken off and we need to wait for a pullback.

I will actively look to add Owens Corning to my portfolio. AVID has been in my portfolio before and I would look to make a short term gain out of this trade again.

Enjoy,

URB

Best Performing Stocks

Patience is something that cannot be taught. And as I have evaluated some of the best performing stocks of this year so far, I am pleased to note that one of our recommendations comes in on all the lists with big returns this year. It is Clayton Williams Energy Inc (CWEI). This stock has been with us so long that if patience is your weakness it would have been exposed. If you gave up on this stock that was in a sector we have constantly talked about week after week you would have taken part in these great gains. Need more proof check out these:

Urbanomics post on Clayton Williams, and other energy plays...notice the date of the article and the message from 2 years ago to stick with Energy stocks, Clayton Williams and Weatherford, and Chesapeake Energy.

http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2006/04/portfolio-alert-ballin-of-wall-street.html
http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2006/01/stock-update.html

Motley Fool's take on this year's top stocks:
http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2008/04/17/the-years-top-stock.aspx

Seeking Alpha's write-up on top stocks:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/75107-another-month-of-08-in-the-books

I like to note that a few of my friends are making great recommendations at this point and one of their stocks is actually topping the list. This stock is Finish Line (FINL) and what I love about this stock is that we were 100% on the money with our analysis. Now I did not buy into this stock but my recommendation was to wait for the legal proceedings from the Genesco trail to end and look to accumulate this stock in the event that the judge allows Finish Line to walk away from its original deal to acquire Genesco. I didn't like the potential acquisition and it looks like the street agreed with me. Also I would like to point out that another one of my friends has been enjoying an incredicble ride with the credit card network processors Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V). Again, I do not own shares here but I think these are great plays due to the fact that the networks don't have exposure to customers with deteriorating credit concerns like the big credit card issuers do (Bank of America, Capital One, Citigroup)...they just run the transactions back and forth.