The major banks {Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, etc) that issue credit to people like you and I, are reporting numbers that will help us understand what people are doing (or not doing) with their debt lately. A good number of the banks reported that chargeoffs are on the rise again. Charge0ffs measure the number of accounts that no longer have the ability to pay off the debt that they've spent. This can happen for a number of reasons and be a sudden occurrence but usually charge0ffs are the end result of the cardholder being delinquent and not paying minimum amounts off for their credit balances. For example, I may chargeoff because I declared bankruptcy, made some type of settlement agreement with the bank, or after a long period of time (7mos) the bank determines that I will not be paying my debt off. So the fact that there are more of these situations occurring is not not a good thing. In general, the banks chargeoff levels mirror the rate of unemployment which is understandable. The one thing this trend tells me is that it appears to be more likely that once a cardholder starts to become delinquent they usually stay that way until the bank writes them off (after 7mos) and determines that they won't get their money back.
If people aren't making good on their existing debts then that means their available credit is shrinking and I go back to my example that indicates the consumer will be pulling back or not making new purchases because they don't have any more room on their cards. This means that most purchases need to come from cash and that is hard to come buy nowadays. Does this signal another leg down for the economy...its hard not to think that we've come too far too fast.
Now before you go and think that I have nothing positive to say, there was some good news. Most of the banks reported that the number of people going delinquent is declining slightly. So its seems like the key will be for the banks to do everything in their power to keep people making those minimum payments.
See the attached link for a view of the "Lifecycle of a Deliquent Card Account" (provided by creditcards.com):
http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/life-cycle-delinquent-debt-1265.php
And the reaction of one credit card issuer is to charge very high interest rates, see the what a 79% interest rate looks like here:
http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/first-premier-79-rate-fees-credit-card-1265.php
Showing posts with label banks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label banks. Show all posts
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Where Did Your Toxic Assets Go, Mr. Bank...
That's the question for an accounting group that sets up standards for companies reporting financial information. They have a standard that determines how to account for assets on companies books. Well today they decided to give companies more room when valuing these assets, and this could give a big lift to those banks we have grown to hate.
The group is called the Financial Accounting Standards Board and they are supposed to be independent when establishing these rules. But it appears they may have caved to the pressures of Congress and Wall Street when it came to political pressure around the somewhat unpopular rule.
The rule, called mark-to-market, is supposed to increase transparency for investors because we can see what these assets are valued by today's standards. But the problem some critics say is what happens when the market tanks (like it has been) and their is NO VALUE. Well, what happens is the financial statements of the banks become horrible.
My Opinion - Keep the rule because it provides transparency and uncovers assets that are beginning to decline in value. But as the rule has been adjusted I won't cry I will just buy and that is the BANKS for a short period of time. The assets are still bad on the banks books the difference is now they don't have to tell is they are!!!!
BUY: Direxion Shares Financial Bull 3x Ticker: (FAS) - This gives you 3x the returns for the banks going up. But just buy a little cause it will take you for a crazy ride!
The group is called the Financial Accounting Standards Board and they are supposed to be independent when establishing these rules. But it appears they may have caved to the pressures of Congress and Wall Street when it came to political pressure around the somewhat unpopular rule.
The rule, called mark-to-market, is supposed to increase transparency for investors because we can see what these assets are valued by today's standards. But the problem some critics say is what happens when the market tanks (like it has been) and their is NO VALUE. Well, what happens is the financial statements of the banks become horrible.
My Opinion - Keep the rule because it provides transparency and uncovers assets that are beginning to decline in value. But as the rule has been adjusted I won't cry I will just buy and that is the BANKS for a short period of time. The assets are still bad on the banks books the difference is now they don't have to tell is they are!!!!
BUY: Direxion Shares Financial Bull 3x Ticker: (FAS) - This gives you 3x the returns for the banks going up. But just buy a little cause it will take you for a crazy ride!
Monday, March 23, 2009
Wall Street - When is Toxic Good?...
The resounding answer to this question is when you don't have to hold the toxic stuff anymore. That appears to be the solution to the problems plaguing America's banking system, which is clogged with these non-trading pools of mortgages that are usually packaged together to be sold off to investors. (Note: Other assets can be packaged together and sold off...like credit cards debt, however for this discussion we will just focus on mortgages)
The investors who usually bought these packages of assets lost faith in them and ran away and the market just dried up. So the assets began selling for less and less and the banks soon became stuck with these assets that "currently" had little to no value. But here is the tricky part for most people to understand: These assets could have value some day if the economy stabilizes.
So what the government is attempting to do is bring all the key players bank to the table and make it worth everyones while. Here are the players and how they will benefit:
Banks - They benefit, if and when they get these assets that "currently" have little value off of their books
Investors (Private Firms) - They benefit by being able to buy these assets again at reasonable prices, because they provide consistent income
Government - They benefit if both the Banks and Investors come together and hold hands again and start trading these assets again. It will help to stabilize the banks and assist in stabilizing the economy
How the Government plans on doing it:
The stock market is on the rise today because the government has officially unleashed its plan to loan $1 Trillion dollars to private firms(investors) who will share in the costs to find a price and buy these toxic assets from banks and split both the profits and losses around these assets.
This gets all the major players involved again and could change the way Wall Street looks at the banks.
Urb Thoughts:
I think that this plan is a well put together solution to the troubling problem around toxic assets. Ironically it helps and hurts the banks but overall it helps the banks and I will explain why. This hurts the banks because "one day" these assets will have value and they will miss out some of those gains but the biggest plus is getting these toxic assets off of their books. And in my opinion, once these assets are off the books, the banks should have no excuse to not make money. They are borrowing money and pay next to nothing for these dollars because the rate at which banks are being charged is at historic lows (Fed Funds Rate)...its between 0 and .025%!!! I could make money if I was borrowing money at these levels. Now the explosive part is all those bad assets that were sagging down their balance sheets will be sold off...this definitely puts the banks in a better position. The one thing to note is that as banks sell off these assets they will have to take a write-down and earnings for the next few quarters may not be pretty but LONG-TERM the banks may be the best BUY of the century.
I'm not sure how I will play this but I will gain some exposure to:
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
Also adding the banks that I belive have the best ability to survive will be key:
Wells Fargo (WFC)
JP MorganChase (JPM)
Bank of America (BAC)
The investors who usually bought these packages of assets lost faith in them and ran away and the market just dried up. So the assets began selling for less and less and the banks soon became stuck with these assets that "currently" had little to no value. But here is the tricky part for most people to understand: These assets could have value some day if the economy stabilizes.
So what the government is attempting to do is bring all the key players bank to the table and make it worth everyones while. Here are the players and how they will benefit:
Banks - They benefit, if and when they get these assets that "currently" have little value off of their books
Investors (Private Firms) - They benefit by being able to buy these assets again at reasonable prices, because they provide consistent income
Government - They benefit if both the Banks and Investors come together and hold hands again and start trading these assets again. It will help to stabilize the banks and assist in stabilizing the economy
How the Government plans on doing it:
The stock market is on the rise today because the government has officially unleashed its plan to loan $1 Trillion dollars to private firms(investors) who will share in the costs to find a price and buy these toxic assets from banks and split both the profits and losses around these assets.
This gets all the major players involved again and could change the way Wall Street looks at the banks.
Urb Thoughts:
I think that this plan is a well put together solution to the troubling problem around toxic assets. Ironically it helps and hurts the banks but overall it helps the banks and I will explain why. This hurts the banks because "one day" these assets will have value and they will miss out some of those gains but the biggest plus is getting these toxic assets off of their books. And in my opinion, once these assets are off the books, the banks should have no excuse to not make money. They are borrowing money and pay next to nothing for these dollars because the rate at which banks are being charged is at historic lows (Fed Funds Rate)...its between 0 and .025%!!! I could make money if I was borrowing money at these levels. Now the explosive part is all those bad assets that were sagging down their balance sheets will be sold off...this definitely puts the banks in a better position. The one thing to note is that as banks sell off these assets they will have to take a write-down and earnings for the next few quarters may not be pretty but LONG-TERM the banks may be the best BUY of the century.
I'm not sure how I will play this but I will gain some exposure to:
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)
Also adding the banks that I belive have the best ability to survive will be key:
Wells Fargo (WFC)
JP MorganChase (JPM)
Bank of America (BAC)
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wall Street - The PULSE
Hey everybody I am back to hit you with a quick post to keep you in the loop with what's going on in the stock market. By now, I know the average person is paying attention on a daily basis because I get a weekly call from my sister asking me about why things are falling or more importantly what should I be doing with my money. And if you recall when you don't hear much from me I am usually doing one thing and that's reading. I am constantly reading about what everyone has to write and listening to what everyone has to say...to get a feel of the market's temperature. How can you do this?!?! Well simply start by tuning in here as often as you can to get a pulse, not always daily but a frequent pulse as to what may be changing out there. And if you get tired of reading, check out CNBC's homepage and select the VIDEO tab for very frequent video posting of their on air show.
Wall Street's Pulse - Awhile back I compared Wall Street to a prized fighter that was down and out, maybe like one of my favorite fighters Roy Jones Jr. The latest prognosis is still not that good...the patient needs help getting up in the ring right now and the count keeps going to about 8 (get to 10 and the fight is over). For those of you that don't know what a knockout blow is for Wall Street, well its would be a depression. And the trainers right now are the Obama Administration, The Treasury Department, and The Federal Reserve. They are constantly looking at the fighter, checking its vitals, and assessing how to help him keep fighting. But right now the vitals of Wall Street do not look good:
Investors (who are like the fans in the stands) have sobered up to these realities and almost given up on the fighter, but the trainers keep working. And their work seems to be helping the fighter get a little bit better:
Now onto what I believe and what I'm doing:
I believe the fighter is still hurt badly which means don't cheer (or buy stocks just yet). I truly believe that safer alternatives are out there and should be evaluated for your portfolio. I still like OWNING CASH, and not doing a whole lot especially in your retirement portfolios...don't be the hero or the only one cheering when the fighter just got knocked down again. Invest in safer alternatives:
Cash
Gold (GLD)
High Yield Corporate Debt (LQD)
Municipal Bonds (TFI)
And if you feel like you need to be in the markets, be careful and be a bottom feeder...the nastiest thing out there. Wait until things gets really bad and nibble on the most beaten down sectors. For instance I do this when the banks look really bad, like when everyone though Citigroup was going out of business and I buy just a little bit of the bank stocks ETF on steroids (FAS)...it gives me 3X the returns of bank stocks, but I bite just a little. And when things start to look like they are on a roll I sell. I don't panic about selling to early because in a few days I start to look for a point to be a top feeder and bet that things will come back down and buy the FAZ, which bets the banks will fall...TIMES 3X! But don't stick around to long in these trades or else you'll be writing me with heartburn as I have often had, but irrational fans sober up eventually.
Wall Street's Pulse - Awhile back I compared Wall Street to a prized fighter that was down and out, maybe like one of my favorite fighters Roy Jones Jr. The latest prognosis is still not that good...the patient needs help getting up in the ring right now and the count keeps going to about 8 (get to 10 and the fight is over). For those of you that don't know what a knockout blow is for Wall Street, well its would be a depression. And the trainers right now are the Obama Administration, The Treasury Department, and The Federal Reserve. They are constantly looking at the fighter, checking its vitals, and assessing how to help him keep fighting. But right now the vitals of Wall Street do not look good:
- Unemployment numbers continue to rise and have now been estimated to reach over 10% within the next year or so.
- Companies continue to cut jobs left and right and give not so rosy outlooks for the rest of 2009
- Consumer Savings rates were above 5%, which is at levels that we haven't seen in a long time!
- Retail Sales numbers are barely off their lows, which means people ain't buying!
- The consumer and companies are still having difficulty getting access to capital.
Investors (who are like the fans in the stands) have sobered up to these realities and almost given up on the fighter, but the trainers keep working. And their work seems to be helping the fighter get a little bit better:
- Banks are receiving more and more capital
- The stimulus plan and housing bills are aimed at helping home owners and generating jobs
- There is talk about adjusting mark to market (how banks place a value on assets they own)
Now onto what I believe and what I'm doing:
I believe the fighter is still hurt badly which means don't cheer (or buy stocks just yet). I truly believe that safer alternatives are out there and should be evaluated for your portfolio. I still like OWNING CASH, and not doing a whole lot especially in your retirement portfolios...don't be the hero or the only one cheering when the fighter just got knocked down again. Invest in safer alternatives:
Cash
Gold (GLD)
High Yield Corporate Debt (LQD)
Municipal Bonds (TFI)
And if you feel like you need to be in the markets, be careful and be a bottom feeder...the nastiest thing out there. Wait until things gets really bad and nibble on the most beaten down sectors. For instance I do this when the banks look really bad, like when everyone though Citigroup was going out of business and I buy just a little bit of the bank stocks ETF on steroids (FAS)...it gives me 3X the returns of bank stocks, but I bite just a little. And when things start to look like they are on a roll I sell. I don't panic about selling to early because in a few days I start to look for a point to be a top feeder and bet that things will come back down and buy the FAZ, which bets the banks will fall...TIMES 3X! But don't stick around to long in these trades or else you'll be writing me with heartburn as I have often had, but irrational fans sober up eventually.
Monday, February 09, 2009
Twist And Shout...
The reason why I call this post twist and shout is because I am definitely about to throw my readers for a twist. The twist goes a little something like this:
I have recommended since last September/October that we MOVE all of our positions into Cash, and Cash-like assets (Treasurys,etc). And I mentioned we would hold those positions until we hit a relevant level that may help form a bottom. At this point, with the new Treasury secretary (Tim Geithner) delivering his plan for the banks TOMORROW...AND the Senate finalizing the vote on the stimulus plan TODAY I am under the assumption, that any hint of news (as minimal as it might be), may cause the market to start rallying in anticipation of both announcements. I would increase your exposure to the market however incrementally. At this point no more that MAYBE 25% of your CASH position should be used to take advantage of this situation.
Now here is the TWIST, I am resigned to say that we are purely taking advantage of what will probably go down as a BEAR MARKET RALLY. This simply means that there are pockets, during an economic downturn where the markets need a breather and goes in the opposite direction. And that direction would be UP.
But this will be short-lived and the hard part to determine is how long this BEAR MARKET RALLY will last. I will go out on a limb and say it the market top 9000 to head for the hills as I believe that it will be trading in a range for a long time. I know I continue to deliver news that you may not want to hear but I believe that once we hit those levels the markets will continue to decline until critical things are addressed such as unemployment, foreclosure, and failing banks.
I have recommended since last September/October that we MOVE all of our positions into Cash, and Cash-like assets (Treasurys,etc). And I mentioned we would hold those positions until we hit a relevant level that may help form a bottom. At this point, with the new Treasury secretary (Tim Geithner) delivering his plan for the banks TOMORROW...AND the Senate finalizing the vote on the stimulus plan TODAY I am under the assumption, that any hint of news (as minimal as it might be), may cause the market to start rallying in anticipation of both announcements. I would increase your exposure to the market however incrementally. At this point no more that MAYBE 25% of your CASH position should be used to take advantage of this situation.
Now here is the TWIST, I am resigned to say that we are purely taking advantage of what will probably go down as a BEAR MARKET RALLY. This simply means that there are pockets, during an economic downturn where the markets need a breather and goes in the opposite direction. And that direction would be UP.
But this will be short-lived and the hard part to determine is how long this BEAR MARKET RALLY will last. I will go out on a limb and say it the market top 9000 to head for the hills as I believe that it will be trading in a range for a long time. I know I continue to deliver news that you may not want to hear but I believe that once we hit those levels the markets will continue to decline until critical things are addressed such as unemployment, foreclosure, and failing banks.
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