Best Buy - The Price Is Now "Matched"

When was the last time you shopped at Best Buy?? If most people are like me it has been ages since you've physically been into their store. I used to appreciate the days when they were perceived as the low cost alternative against Circuit City and other high cost electronic box stores.  When Circuit City departed, I thought it was smooth sailing for these guys.  They were the place to turn for all my electronics and gadgets, until I started shopping online.  I still was somewhat loyal to Best Buy but this dried up because they had nothing for shoppers that valued nice products and moderate prices.  The 'Magnolia' line of products is great but EASILY way too pricey and the other lines of Best Buy branded products aren't appealing for a semi-techie guy like me that actually reads CNET reviews.  So unfortunately I exclusively started shopping online with Amazon, Newegg, and directly from electronic manufacturers (Lenovo, Dell, etc) that offered the best pricing for my products.  I even became a dreaded comparison shopper recently when I bought my entertainment system for my HD, surround sound, bass booming media room.  I went to Best Buy and was quoted thousands for a TV alone and then thousands for my surround sound system, and wiring.  I decided to by my TV online and applied the extra saving to more inches (I'm over 60 inches).  Then my receiver for my entertainment system was bought through an Amazon Gold Box deal.  My surround sound speakers came from Newegg (they even threw in free wiring) and boast enough beats to watch sports or pound out a building thumping boom from the 4th floor.

But, there may be redemption!! Best Buy just announced that they will price match competitors INCLUDING their online prices. This price effect starts NOW and is good through Nov. 17. They will revisit this matching program for the BLACK FRIDAY seasonal dates: Nov. 27 - Dec. 24. I follow the company as a possible investment but Main Street should take advantage of this unique opportunity to go back to the old school way of touching and buying your product in a store. You can walk away feeling pretty good because you came in with the BEST PRICE and they will match it without much hassle. I like physically inspecting my items and this is music to my ears.

The Economy's First TIme...

First times are usually associated with fond memories that will last a lifetime. However, some first times are not what we truly expect.  I was listening/reading a discussion with hedge fund manager Kyle Bass.  I find him interesting because he tends to like going against the grain. The things that I hear from him don't always align with what many investors and analysts are saying at that particular point in time.  If you've paid attention to my posts or random outbursts I've definitely slowed down writing about all things Wall Street because the rules are being written and changing as we speak.  In the last year, you have often heard me say that the data and thus the signals I am getting are mixed.  Maybe it would be better put that situations are changing so rapidly that its tough to keep a gauge on the market unless I am watching constantly.  I prefer not to watch constantly because that would throw off my investment style and likely lead to a little more hedging or second guessing of my strategies.  While listening to Kyle Bass speak, I thought he put an interesting take on things which made me understand why I've had this whipsawed feeling about how the market is acting.  He simply stated, "We've never been here before".  Ever!  And the point he noted was quite interesting...during a peace-time era (may wanna slightly debate this part) the amount of debt we've amassed has never been this large.  Historically, it's interesting that countries massively massively build up debt during times of war to get through those periods of time.  However, why did and why now is debt level so far away from what we've historically been used to?!?  I've favored being in the market but tilted to the defensive side of things.  That is where I will stay for the foreseeable future. So dividends, growth, and maybe even higher risk debt securities are the road that I plan to take.  A little hint for my subscription folks, you'll notice that technology and software have surprisingly been in the mix!  I'll embed the video below, take a listen:

Til Debt Do Us Part...

URB - Social 

The new conversation line may go a little something like this, "So How Much Debt Do You Have?".  This might follow: (1) Are You Married, (2) Do You Have Kids, and (3) What Do You Do?

All are common conversation starters when chatting up the future Mr. or Mrs. Right.  I have always been called 'mechanical' but I always held onto the need to ask or discuss the financial health of your significant other just like we discuss other serious topics: such as health, kids, and marriage.  I held onto to this useful tip when a alum came back to campus and oddly enough ended with that as one of his life lessons.  Its a touchy subject but consider talking to your significant other about debt just like you bring up conversations on kids and marriage. So I found it shocking to listen to a radio segment that was reporting on this very subject of debt and relationships.

Here is an excerpt from NPR's segment and call, "Call Me Maybe When Your School Loan is Paid In Full:

"The increasing debt load of college graduates has affected young people's lives in untold ways, from career choices to living arrangements. Now add another impact on a key part of young adult life: dating and marriage.

Rachel Bingham, an art teacher in Portland, Maine, learned this a few years back, when a guy broke it off after four months of a budding relationship. Among other reasons, he cited her $80,000 in student loan debt.

"He said it scared him," she recalls, "that it really made him anxious. And he just did not want to take on my responsibility."

Included is a link to the full article: Debt Caused My Break Up

Next time, I'll share the lesson learned from a Toyota's executive on the beginnings of the Lexus concept. 

Investing for Growth or Is It a Slowdown?...

URB - Economics

I barely lasted through a board meeting that proves my building morale is in a recession maybe a depression.  The arguing gave me the impression I was watching Congress debate about taxes or healthcare. :)

Speaking of Congress! While they talk about it often, it seems like things are only done about the economy in spurts or bursts. When it gets really bad, you and I get loud enough, Congress hears our anger and they throw us a bone or two and then get back to fighting about real issues...I guess.  It's interesting the topic is never 100% about the economy.  I would like to finally write a post about whether I definitively think the economy is growing or slowing down.  Its pretty hard to tell and as you know I constantly keep my ear to da streets to get a pulse from the people.  The real people that are trying to make ends meet day to day, rather than just arguing.  There are many mixed signals out there...and I see positive signs from improving housing trends to people starting to switch jobs.  But then there are the constant reminders of high unemployment, rising grocery bills, foreclosures, city governments struggles, and the federal budget problem which confirm that the coast is not clear.

Build Your Own Case Study: Barnes and Noble (BKS)

I am good with numbers but unfortunately I am behind the 8 ball this year when it comes to posting my thoughts.  I've kept busy doing a lot of research to maintain a thoughtful blog.  Based on feedback you'll notice some changes to the site. First, many people will be happy to know that we've responded to your calls for any easy way to know what stocks I'm interested in. I developed a quarterly 'Subscription Service' to highlight long-term value stocks.  I continue to appreciate the feedback and the questions and we will definitely explore posts about socials issues, retirement, and life/wellness in the future.  They'll probably have some sort of financial bend to them so I won't stray to far away from the roots.

I want to talk about how to invest and why we all can do it.  I was just relaxing after taking in a couple of "Mad Men" episodes on Netflix and noted that I should revisit some of my old writings.  I flashed back to my thoughts earlier in the year in the posting "Companies Watch". I wrote the following about Barnes and Noble (BKS):

Barnes and Noble – I am a sucker for stocks on the decline and Barnes and Noble is showing up on my radar. The other day is dropped roughly 20% on news that they were changing their future outlook lower.  That is never good and investors let them have it.  BKS even mentioned making changes such as spinning of their NOOK business.

Price: $11.65 

If you noticed on January 12th, I brought BKS to your attention because it was a large company that's going through some tough times.  These companies can be good investments if you keep a level head and strong stomach.  I want to show you how I built a case study and how you can build yours. 

---

Things to Do:

1. Identify stocks that are need further analysis and write their pros and cons down.

2. Determine if the price is right by looking for discounts or mismatches in the prices.

3. Figure out what the price will be in future...think long term.  

4. Research the company to find out what and who supports your view of this stocks. This could range from charts, to investors to new articles.

 5. Stick to your guns and only buy the stock when the price is right.

6. Key a watchful eye out for strategic events that could tell you to buy more or sell the stock.

See how it might work, case study for BKS:

1. BKS 

Pros: Borders is gone, Nook/readers are hot right now

Cons: Amazon, decline in readership

2. See price above: $11.65

3. ?? My initial thoughts was say $20

4. Saw some good articles on e-readers and a few tough ones on book sales

5. I didn't buy BKS but after the huge drop I like the thought of purchasing some shares

6. Followed the story and saw these events as positive:

- Barry Rosenstein runs  JANA Partners which disclosed roughly a 7 million share position in BKS.  BKS was up big (around 18%) and rumors have already started to rise about will he force them to split the company up. 

- Microsoft invests in the Nook e-reader

- An investor who started off negative has has a change of heart. See Whitney Tilson 

2nd Quarter 2012: Premium Stock Alerts

2nd Quarter 2012: 4 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

2nd Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts

I’ve been out digging and hoping to find a few diamonds in the ruff.  One thing that was consistent about these picks this quarter is they are beaten down bunch and we are seeing the big companies being unloved just as much as other stocks.  Some are showing a change is coming, others have dashed the hopes of many investors, and then a few look like they are just chugging along.  Financials, Oil and Gas, and Technology appear to be the themes for this quarter.  These alerts went out to subscribers in May and June.  Take a guess if you enjoy playing at home.

Stock #1: **********

Details

Sector: Financial Industry: Life Insurance Tip Do you know your number, get your money’s worth?

Stock #2: **********

Details

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Major Integrated Oil and; Gas Tip This stock and my pub have a few things in common.

Stock #3: **********

Details

Sector: Financial Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance Tip This stock hopes to put its hanky panky behind it.

Stock #4: **********

Details

Sector: Technology Industry: Diversified Computer Systems Tip I used nutmeg, then took a tablet and now feel better.

Seasonal Selling or A Top In the Stock Market

If you follow most of the commentary right now about the stock market you will see that a common theme is whether you should "SELL IN MAY".  This is a common seasonal trend in the stock market when trading in stocks becomes thin as more traders head off for vacation.  I guess this is somewhat true as I have to head to London here shortly, but its not exactly for vacation. But soon after that I'll find myself in Las Vegas for a little R&R, so I guess this trader will be off eventually for a few days.  There are a few people that are speaking a little louder and signaling that it may be more than seasonal.  I tend to listen to these voices if I find some of the points that they are highlighting credible.  I also tend to tune into these point of views more as friends and family begin to want to talk "shop" with me.  If my friends are asking me about the stock market and telling me how well its been moving and that they have to get back in because they've missed the move up, I start to think.."Uh-Oh the trend may be the markets will start moving down".  When the average Joe is jumping in its usually to late, the smart money has already pounced.  So I am a pretty average guy, so how does this effect me!  Well when I start to get scared about the markets, I try to do the opposite of my impulse and buy.  When things are getting really rosy, I try to sell even though I don't want to.  When I started getting more people talking shop, I sold a few positions, but to be fair, I added a few more of my PREMIUM ALERT picks. The one caveat is I am adding picks that might survive a tough downturn.

Here is a snippet from a BLOOMBERG article of an investor who's painting a picture that's less rosy. Attached is the link to the full article: 

John Burbank, founder of $3.8 billion hedge fund Passport Capital LLC, said he expects a U.S. economic recession this year or in early 2013, according to a letter to investors.

Uneasy Markets...Is There Reason to Worry?

Sometimes when I haven't written a post in awhile its because I am paying very close attention to what's going on in the US markets as well the rest of the world. My general thoughts are people are 'cautiously optimistic' but still a little schizophrenic.  They haven't forgot about how bad a few years ago felt for them and the people they care about. My main street barometer considers things like: 1) Are people shopping? 2) Do I see the bars/clubs/restaurants crowded? 3) Are people talking about their bills or their vacation?

My unscientific survey of my friends and I show that we are going out to more movies, drinking more beer, and thinking about that next trip to Mexico or Las Vegas.  This is positive because it means that unconsciously we might feel that things aren't too bad out there.  However, our alter egos remind us to constantly talk about deals! Our conversations usually start with, "Where can we get in for free?" or "Are there deals or specials today?"  This translates into into my views on the stock market.  I feel pretty good about things and wanna buy more stocks but I want a deal! I think we all share the same feelings of wanting to be invested because we see the stock market going up but I caution you to "WAIT FOR YOUR DEAL!"

I was reading and wanted to share some a question and answer from a Wall Street pro that summed up my feeling on stocks and why I am cautious. Here is a snippet that was posted by the Wall Street Journal:

WSJ Link

Q: Where do you worry you might be wrong?

A: Well, our biggest concern is not so much about being wrong over the next five to 10 years, it's being wrong next year. We believe very strongly in value. We think that value wins in the long run. The problem is it can lose for an inconvenient amount of time along the way. And I would say our biggest concern about why the U.S. might win this year is because of what's going on with government policies around the world.

We believe that the U.S. stock market is overvalued because profits are unsustainably high. But the biggest reason why profits are unsustainably high is because we're running giant budget deficits, which has allowed corporations to cut their labor costs without forcing the workers to cut their consumption.

1st Quarter 2012: 4 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts. Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

1st Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts
I’ve been out digging in and hoping to find a few diamonds. One thing that was consistent about these picks this quarter is they are beaten down bunch. Some are showing a change is coming, others have dashed the hopes of many investors, and then a few look like they are just chugging along. Technology, Gold, and Healthcare appear to be the themes for this quarter.

Stock #1: **********
Details:
Sector: Technology
Industry: Networking & Communication Devices
Tip You may want to plant this technology company.

Stock #2: **********
Details:
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Gold
Tip 2 for 1 when it comes to this gold stock.


Stock #3: **********
Details:
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
Tip This biotech company got taken out to the gun range.

Stock #4: **********
Details
Sector: Technology
Industry: Communication Equipment
Tip Is this technology company real? Ask R.R. and W.E.C

Interesting Things the Stock Market Told Me...

Some may call it beginners luck, but I like to say the stock market can teach you a number of pretty interesting things.  I hate to admit, that it makes me a 'Jack of All Trades' and I seem to know a little bit about some of the strangest subjects under the sun.  I can hold a conversation on the buzz around hydraulic fracturing (known as fracking) in the oil and gas industry or debate why the housing market may have bottomed in Phoenix or never really declined in the metro Washington DC area.  Here are some of the non-stock things I've learned from the Mr. Market:

Who to Watch / Company Watch - UPDATE

Who to Watch
My how times have changed!  In the past, young investors like myself would have wanted to follow in the footsteps of corporate raiders, mutual fund managers, and high profile investors.  One well known corporate raider is Carl Icahn, he and other corporate raiders were legendary for taking over companies or agitating boards for significant change. There was also those legendary mutual fund managers that made people in my parent's generation a lot of money by investing through their fund. Some well know names here are Peter Lynch (Fidelity), Bill Miller (Legg Mason), Bruce Berkowitz (Fairholme), and many others.  The last group of high profile investors are guys like Warren Buffet and George Soros.  Today some of the most well known money makers are in the hedge fund industry.    A small difference from the previous investors in the past, are hedge funds try to make money when markets are up or down by betting on and against the performance of stocks.  Here is a run-down of some of my favorite hedge fund managers:

• Steve Cohen, David Einhorn, John Paulson, Seth Klarman, 
• Bill Ackman, David Nierenberg, Monish Pabrai, Ray Dalio

Is Your Portfolio Up...

Dow Above 13,000 / NASDAQ 3,000
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index that is made of 30 stocks which are a general representation of US economy.  The index consists of companies like McDonalds, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble.  The Dow being above 13K is significant because some consumers like you and me are feeling a little bit better as we watch our collective investment wallets head in the right direction.  If you are invested in the markets through a personal account, 401K, IRA or some other investment vehicle chances are they are all doing better.  To put this in perspective the last time the Dow was at this level was in May 2008.  Or this may help, when things were really bad a few years ago the Dow was at 6,547 on March 9, 2009.  That was four years ago the stock market was where it is today, so we've come along way.  I almost forgot the NASDAQ, which is an index tracking primarily technology stocks.  The NASDAQ briefly hit 3,000 a level it hadn't seen in about 12 years!!

URB Investment Tips: My take away is that this is proof as why you usually want to stay invested in the markets and to not be scared away by the big swings.  I also want to mention that this is a good time to cash in a few of your BIG winners.  In short, I've been impressed by the momentum of jobs and have enjoyed this ride up in the stock market. I will be watching closely because I think we've come along way and worked hard to get here and I think the market may take a deep breathe and pull back (i.e., decline in price) a few months from now.

Here are a few themes from my latest quarterly stock picks:

~ Beaten down stocks
~ Pharmaceutical stocks
~ Gold Miners stocks

Stay tuned, they'll be released shortly.

JOBS, Company Watch - JOE, BKS, LULU, NFLX

January 9, 2012

JOBS BY THE NUMBERS

If you weren’t paying attention, some important data was released this week.  The US Labor Department released the number of jobs that were gained/lost in the previous month.  Drum roll…companies hired 200,000 employees in December and the famous unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%.  If you aren’t familiar with the numbers this is POSITIVE in my book.  The reasons are: (1) More people have been getting jobs and this has been consistently happening since last summer, (2) The jobs are being added across small, medium, and large companies, and (3) Jobless claims (i.e., people filing unemployment claims) are falling.  In case you were following along at home, the number usually has to be over 125,000 to signify that jobs are being added. 

We want more jobs, I want more jobs, and we should expect that are federal, state, schools, and citizens will do and try everything to continue to get this number to a level that allows our country to grow and people to work consistently.  So please when we watch debates or listen to the evening news keep that in perspective that without jobs a lot of other things seem pretty trivial.

COMPANY WATCH – St. Joes Company (NYSE: JOE) / Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS)

St. Joes Company – This stock is a great example of trusting your instinct.  I like the prospects of taking a contrarian, or against the grain, stand on some investments.  JOE was one of those companies that I thought is a better investment than owning home builders.  My thesis is you get to own land and that has an intrinsic value that should hold its worth in economic downturns like the ones we’ve suffered.  Well to make a long story short, I believe I had the right thesis however I never expected there was going to be such a dispute as to what the true value of the land is.  David Einhorn made a compelling case as to why the value of the land St. Joes held wasn’t worth what St. Joes was claiming and the stock has fallen sharply.  WELL, finally there appears to be some upside to the stock.  I’ve noticed that some analysts have upgraded their outlook based on future growth prospects.  The development of land in the Panama City area, the recent development of an international airport, and recent cost cutting measures are signs that they might be moving in the right direction. 

Price: $14.67

                                          

Barnes and Noble – I am a sucker for stocks on the decline and Barnes and Noble is showing up on my radar. The other day is dropped roughly 20% on news that they were changing their future outlook lower.  That is never good and investors let them have it.  BKS even mentioned making changes such as spinning of their NOOK business. 

Price: $11.65 

COMPANY WATCH  - Lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU)  / Netfilx (NASDAQ: NFLX)  

Lululemon – I’ve had my eye on LULU for quite some time now.  This stock has been a high flier and it you don’t know they make money by selling $100 dollar yoga pants.  Yoga, it’s all the craze for people with money and to show of that dough they buy expensive pants to get their work out on.  Well LULU had come under some pressure and the stock dropped a bit.  I am a stock hater here! And because I like things on the cheap I want LULU to fall further before I begin buying.  I may not be able to get that opportunity because LULU seems to go one direction and that’s up.

 Price: $53.44

Netflix – Quick note, I trashed it on the way down and I love a good rebound.  NFLX, at the lows of $70 is attractive to me.  It’s rebounded strongly and they recently talked about expanding further internationally.

Price: $98.18

Happy New Years

Happy New Years from URBANOMICS

I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Years. To all the first time investors, part-time investors, or people interested in their financial well being: Welcome to the site that explains everything financial in an easy to understand format.  We have it all covered from how to check your credit for free, tax advice, and where to invest in the complex stock market.