KUUMBA | CREATIVITY - Creativity Comes in All Forms

 Day 6 of Kwanzaa bring us Kuumba, or creativity. Full disclosure: I have tens of cousins and extended family members named Kumba so first I want to send a shout out to all my second born girl cousins who all seem to be creative souls. 

For me I wanted to speak on Creativity in a slightly different matter. When I think of creativity I think of resilience. I'll start with people I find creative:

Stevie Wonder - One of the youngest musical prodigies, Stevie overcame his disabilities to make music that touches the soul and creatively matches the activist mood of the country every step of the way.

LeBron James - As a 20 something, he was a super resilient athlete who knew his legacy would be tied to competing at the highest level and winning championships. Despite an owner and city bad-mouthing him (for leaving Cleveland) and fans burning his jersey he maneuvered the National Basketball Association (which primary is managed and coached by white males) to win championships with the Miami Heat. He returned to Cleveland and "delivered" a championship, and returned the luster and shine to my beloved LA Lakers franchise by winning a 4th title. He creatively did this when no other players did these types of things. He recruited players, now negotiates short-term deals so he can maximize his value (sound familiar), and uses his brand and platform for a school in Akron, his management team are people of color, his agent Rich Paul is black, and he is active politically... when most players previously didn't want to impact their business dealings and brand. Remember: "Shut Up and Dribble"

Streaming Content / Cord Cutters - A whole industry has been built off a simple premise I've written about here of the years. Why do I pay for channels I don't use?? When we cut the cord this year out of frustration with Comcast jacking their prices up (even though we could afford it), my technology boundaries led me to install an HD antennae. This was perfect for the kids as we get PBS, not much of a drop of there. It wasn't bad for the wife as most of her shows are actually non-cable TV shows. But boy, I took a hit, which the industry knew, because I follow sports and a few cable TV shows. Our family has saved easily over $150 a month by cutting the cord and just going to high speed internet and we showed resilience by not crawling back but creativity by treating ourselves to a ROKU streambar. A small investment got me a soundbar (not the best but decent) and introduced us to the creative world of streaming content. I can stream news channels and stock broadcasts and the kids can stream PBS and a few different cartoon options. My wife tapped her social network and now flips through Apple, Netflix, Hulu, HBO, and who knows what else. The most ironic thing is I recommended this stock and didn't fully understand the flexibility its technology was providing for this new generation of streaming and cutting traditional cord options. I now understand why Hulu wants to sell Live Sports and why Fubotv, a sports only streaming channel, skyrocketed 330% this year. 

State's Get Creative - Maybe the most creative thing I do, because of my job as a consultant/auditor is I am forced to listen to both sides. So I am one of the rare people that you will meet that wants to hear all angles before I begin my own investigation. I roll over in laughter as state and federal politicians preach those good ole puritan values. But the data tells me and it should tell you...they are doubling down in vices or supposed sin to fill their budget coffers. I won't go Boardwalk Empire on you...but you don't find it odd that your state:

• Offer Lottery Tickets
• Expanded Casinos and now is offering or looking into the growing world of sports gambling
• Offers Medicinal marijuana and many now make bank off of recreational marijuana (after years jailing minorities for something that magically becomes legal with the stroke of a pen?)
• Many cities are discussing reducing or removing drug tests because with the saturation of Meth throughout poor and middle-class America, Corporate America now can't find lower income white talent who can pass rigorously screening that often kept minorities out of their ivory towers. In my state, we've even discussed remediation centers, so these persons don't fill the jails and get a different path. Where was this creativity during the crack epidemic? Where were the work release programs for minority dealers selling weed, which we can't seem to control because the people have spoken: they were buying all that weed being sold and don't see the harm?

Front Line Workers - A personal message to the persons on the front lines. To be a part of the richest nation and day after day you had to patch together solutions so that you could try to have effective PPE, because we didn't stockpile or purchase enough is unacceptable. That is creative and God Bless You

My creativity I believe comes from going against the grain. When people turned against Tesla and Elon Musk, I decided to invest. When, I saw COVID-19 ravage China, I spoke out early. When many said the Sprint deal couldn't get done I creatively looked to simple clues like my Billionaire buddy and Sprint Chairman Masa Son selling his mansion (Mission Hills, KS) months before the deal as vindication this deal was gonna get done. Finally, in late Nov/early Dec I landed my 2nd corporate cyber project in as many months. The meetings were very smooth, so smooth our client decided to contact me directly via LinkedIn immediately after our discussion. Due to my company size, I often work through a middleman (because I still have a 9-5 job)...so when I learned I didn't receive the project I was floored. How could everything go so right with my client and this middleman tell me it's not going to happen. So I thought creatively, reached out on LinkedIn and voice my surprise but willingness to help him and his organization now and in the future. Strangely, a week later I get a call, the middleman now needs my help as the client wants me and my organization for the cyber project.

Don't be shy like Black Lives Matter was to be the voice that goes against the grain. The grain sometimes means you have a bunch of people entrenched that don't want to see change. I'm not sure city halls, police unions, and some people in our community want to see change...many love their comfort. Like my contract negotiation, some want to cut you, and maybe offer a lower priced vendor. I represented change a minority partner that was demanding my fair and sizeable share of the revenue for the work my company would be performing.  They didn't account for my subject matter expertise and my subtle comment to my client that we has so much in common there was no way we didn't have common colleagues in our line of work. That sowed a seed that creatively bucked the system wanting to cut me out of what I was entitled to. 

Please be resilient and use your KUUMBA. It's New Year's Eve, I wish you all a Happy and prosperous New Years. Peace and Love

How Netflix Shows Help Me Invest - Mindhunter | Black Mirror | Beats

 

Mindhunter - This show is about the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and how they first formed the Behavioral Science Unit. Simply put, this is the unit that came up with a methodology for investigating the murders that most local police forces couldn't solve. They coined the phrase "serial killer' and how to profile people. Oddly enough, maybe we do operate in "patterns" and when you consider history...it can often be used to solve the most complex murders. The irony in the show is how often people "back then" said this type of thing doesn't happen around here. I guess when it comes to investing, I try to create a profile of the economy. I ask myself what events and triggers are likely to occur because of my profile analysis. I do lots of research, as history tends to tell a story that often and sometimes unfortunately repeats itself. Finally, I look back in time for patterns. Patterns, especially those found in charts historically help me find great entry points to plant seeds --- or invest in companies.  

The simple mind easily complains about the athlete on TV who grinds through a physical game and calls them spoiled brats...the mindhunter wonders who pays all the salaries of the athletes on a team and how can he/she afford that payroll.  Makes you ponder -- if a particular league is 75% one race --- should coaches and executive management look more like the end product.  I guess they've never heard of no taxation without representation. 

More to come from me on Ice Cube's Contract with Black America. Just imagine if the decision - makers (Congress) had a guide to some of the items that could improve life for African Americans. Decent thought Cube, but bend your mind further --- why doesn't Congress simply reflect the represent 15% of the population that African Americans represent. No taxation without real representation. 

In The Dark - This show gets a thumbs up from me. I like the premise of the lead character being a blind person who has a messy life. We all do, so it's refreshing that they add layers of complexity to this show. It even turns the table on of the white savior complex as a black person actually is capable of helping the damsel in distress. While this theme is short-lived,  they go back to a white person saving the day but they tried. I cite this movie, because eventually as a society we are SLOWLY moving away from fake narratives and getting more real. Black people can help and save white people too. The cute white girl that's blind can have a life full of messy complex vices. This is REAL. Just like it's real when states are struggling to make ends meet. It again doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize they will have to find creative ways to balance their budgets. Hence my mindhunter investments into stocks like: Ceasars, Draftkings, and other gaming stocks. Just image that, the culture that holds puritan values so high needs gaming to save the day. It's just reality. When I travel to the United Kingdom, sports betting is prevalent on every corner. I can walk into a store that looks a lot like how a cell phone store is constructed here in the US. Instead of buying an I-Phone you can place a bet. Makes you wonder who is actually "In The Dark". 

Dark - After Black Mirror, the show "Dark" was easily next favorite series to watch. I couldn't spoil this show for you even if I tried. It's a German series that attempts to discuss how life is connected in more ways that we can imagine. I like the premise because as humans we attempt to dumb down life by only talking about the duality of life. What does this mean --- well have you ever heard someone describe things as simply black or white...good versus bad/evil?? This shows turns that concept on its head and blows up the duality narrative of life. We all know the concept is BS but we go along for the ride at every step of the way. What explains gay marriage, legalized drugs and gambling, priests who abuse their power, white supremacists', and so many other complex subjects. Boardwalk Empire shows us that will enough $$$ the prohibition of alcohol can be done away. The three-fifths clause in the constitution shows you how dark the human mind can delve to justify a means to an end. I am pro-business but I also recognize that business invest in the areas that need transformation --- in government we call this entitlements. I believe in social values so why don't we pay government workers private sector rates so that they can put food on the table and fund their own retirements and even possibly rid the system of pensions (or contractual obligations) that now many want to backtrack on and not pay? Why is this all so DARK, maybe because we try to simplify this into a dual world - good vs bad and black vs white...and it ain't that simple.

Black Mirror - Black Mirror is hands down my favorite show and describes my persona to a "T". I couldn't understand why so many don't see the harm of social media like I clearly see it. I've only had "that feeling" I get when I log into Facebook one other time and that's when I played a slot machine in Vegas. I've only done it once and it was crazy how it made me feel. I almost lost my entire $40 dollars and was prepared to go against my principle of adding more $$$ when I hit it $400 large. Then stupidly I thought well maybe I could do it again. I probably gave another $60 dollars back and decided. Enough was enough...I pulled the plugged. That dopamine effect was a feeling I've never felt before until I logged onto Facebook. The need for likes, the need to only post my travels, night outs, and big purchases. Then I decided 5+ years ago, this is overrated. So I don't log on and when I do, you get the good, bad and ugly of my life. I remind people, if someone is giving you anything for free in life --- YOU are the product. 

Beats - Finally, I wanted to highlight the movie Beats. This movie is about making it out of your environment and overcoming adversity. I don't always like the background of the need for music to black people's away out --- but music is in our DNA whether you are African, Jamaican, or African-American. I remind people to expect the road to be hard. The biggest thing I tell people to do nowadays is learn how to be independent. Find a service, skill, product that people need and be supply them with that legally. Negotiate your own terms and sleep better at night because I have no one to blame but me. More to come but I signed by first major business contract just a few months ago. I saw the tactics used against me were signs of systemic oppression because I became woke to how people were making money off of me the "talent". I appreciate the introduction, but why do you get paid tens of thousands of dollars when I'm the consultant and doing the actual work. I will tell you about this journey soon and how I am hiring people of color in an IT landscape that screams for diversity.

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My job is to help the largest corporations in the world to simplify their most complex and riskiest businesses. So I do that for people here when it comes to the economic engine of the world. It's a machine that has patterns. People at as if the world operates in a black and white manner but it simply does not. Right now its simple, the US government has printed 13 Trillion dollars. Most of that has gone to companies. Those companies are skyrocketing as their stocks are going through the roof. Roku is up so much that I am simply making trades each week that will make money betting the impossible will not happen. For example, Roku will NOT increase 30% in one week and if does not, please cut me a check. I usually execute these trade when I am supposed to be most scared --- when Roku reached its all-time high of $239 just in the last week. They want me to be scared to put the trade on but I'm not. I simply do it for the culture -- we can be talk about how wrong the system is or we can Robin Hood it and help our folks. I don't see them listening and trust me a system this rigged ain't changing anytime soon. Here is me slamming Roku. I trust you can do math on my gains. Any trades highlighted in Green means I only held the trade for 7 day, IMO a week. Not bad for a guy with a 9-5 and a side hustle.

Note: I'm masking my trades as I hope to dust off an alert service startup company I had dreams of running over 10 years ago. For almost a year, I've been literally an open book in hopes of teaching and showing people a different way. I'm not here to motivate, just to plant seeds. If we plant enough seeds, change gon' come. 

Investing Like the Godfather of Harlem

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments)	Search My Blog

If Regular People Did That Sh!t

Legal Tax Evasion – Just when I’d like to think sometimes I've hit rock-star status (blessed with a great family, job, friend) , I remember listening to Lil Wayne’s lyrics. Wait for it – “We are not the same, I am a Martian” 👽.  This subtle line he’s repeated in his songs is to remind many of us, we are NOT on the same planet as he is. Disregard the facial tattoos , the fact he signed Nicki Minaj + Drake to his label (Young Money), or the fact that he started rapping at 13 years of age, it’s pretty easy for me to realize I got some work to do before I hit legendary status and can simply be recognized by my nickname known worldwide (Lil Weezy).  Well my ‘If Regular People’ post is a quick reminder to most of us to stop and think, while your political vote may represent what you aspire (e.g., tax cuts, small government, less regulation, etc.) you are not a Martian like those super rich who truly benefit from those policies.  Read my last post, if you don’t have enough money and connections like Carlos Ghosn has to escape prison in another country (while on trial) using private jets and jumping into speaker boxes then…you might just be a human being…not a Martian 👽.

My next example is some sh!t truly only rich or wanna be rich people have time to think about and benefit from. So I was reading an article about conservation easements. To cut to the chase, this is a law that allows someone owning land to claim they are protecting land from being developed. You get to claim that you have saved the world by reducing pollution and maintaining its natural beauty (since it goes undeveloped) AND you depending on the value of the land…you get to deduct that sh!t from your taxes.  I’m trying to not fall out of my chair laughing😀! This tax loophole is getting abused (see the IRS Dirty Dozen tax loopholes) more than “instant replay” in professional sports at the moment – and that’s a lot. If this isn’t rich people abuse, why can’t I buy up all the land in the hoods across America, mark up the price even further, and sell tax credits (i.e., charitable donations) to my people in the hood who really need it? I could demolish all those bandos and get rich while doing the public a favor??  Who should be ashamed of themselves – the Rich people hammering this loophole, the government for letting this continue, or the disillusioned people who think they are voting for policies like these which are not really helping them out??

Well anyone using this loophole is also making it very clear to the rest of us -- that use a tax software (me) or ‘claim’ we have an accountant that used to work for the IRS -- YOU ARE NOT A MARTIAN.  For us regular people, remember invest in yourself, diversify your life, and let’s change the game.

Link: ProPublica - IRS Non-Crackdown

Investing Themes for 2020

Please remember, I primarily use a data driven approach to investing.  I like to review data and events that were successful in the past and use those patterns to see if they will be successful in the future. This helps me take the emotion out of my investing. To further reinforce this I tend to set up trade alerts and purchases when I am doing my research and analysis – these are set well in advance of buying a stock so I often don’t know: a. what date I will purchase a stock (if at all) + b. why I liked the stock so much (so I take notes or blog about its potential to serve as a reminder). I also try to see if a theme is emerging from my data (so I can hammer the trend further with even deeper analysis) and I corroborate my thesis by trying to see if my Billionaire buddies (Ray Dalio, Mario Gabelli, Warren Buffett, David Tepper, Carl Icahn, David Einhorn, etc.) have mentioned these themes whenever they speak on TV or at conferences.

·          Streaming Media + Sports + Gambling

o    Media - So you want to play the streaming craze. The trend starts with high flying stocks like Google (think YouTube), Netflix and Roku. Then add Disney if you like Hulu (yup, Disney owns a large portion of Hulu). But media is now king! Don’t believe me, please watch the amazing series – The Godfather of Harlem on Epix. This is a great example that content will likely win the war…so go out and buy the content media companies that Netflix is paying top dollars to be able to stream their shows. 

o    Sports - It’s no secret that for live TV, sports is the last game in town. Revenue deals with sports teams are through the roof as new social media companies fight regular cable companies to offer live sports. Don’t believe just check out Hulu ridiculous commercials stating “Hulu Has Live Sports”. Next, get paid for something you love doing – watching sports. Do me a great favor and compile a list of all of the sports companies that are public companies. Trust, it’s cool to say you’re an owner and it makes the season a lot more interesting when you invest in shares of a sports franchise. I keep a mental list of a few sports teams that I know are public: Manchester United, Atlanta Braves, New York Knicks

o    Gambling – If the economy is doing so well, why are states scrambling for your gambling dollars.  States all across America are rushing for the 21^st century gold mine – Gambling. Casinos are Sport Betting no longer taboo. With the likes of FanDuel, DraftKings, and your local casinos offering mobile and physical sportsbooks, respectively state are raking in dollars. Many more states will follow the trend and the industry is already noticing the trend of bets being placed on mobile phone within a 15 mile radius of state lines where gambling is not offered.  Again the data don’t lie, people are showing they are willing to cross a border just to place a bet on their phone in a state where sport gambling is offered and then they head home.  

·          Cyber + ME + Social Media

o    Cyber: Cybersecurity will continue to be a huge force. Stay tuned for a separate post on stocks in this space and read my previous posts on the names I’ve traded.

o    Social Media Stocks – I have resisted the temptations of being on Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat – but we’ll see how long the holdout continues. The world is telling you they want the attention to be all about them and what better platforms to scream to the world. So invest in social media companies because people are addicted and until people and possibly the government change the trends I’m seeing it will continue to be consumed. (Don’t believe me: see Apple’s new slow-mo selfie commercials) smh

o    ME – If you notice the consistent theme of what my data analysis is telling me is that people are using more and more things that have addictive qualities: TV binging, Gambling, Sports Betting, Social Media, etc. So the next surprising trend is people buy more things that allow them to look glamorous on social media. There is nothing better than TEETH and makeup. Yup, I’m positive Align Technology and Smile Direct Club are showing up in my research because people want straighter and whiter teeth to FLOSS on social media (no pun intended). Invisalign and Smile Direct are straightening teeth all across America. I was watching something about interesting entrepreneurs and this trend fell right into my lap. The entrepreneur got into the teeth whitening space very early and he attributes much of the success of his very lucrative business to the rise of social media and influencers (funny I thought selling yourself to another person was illegal). Or my small investment in Coty, guess whose cosmetics line they a bought 51% stake in shortly after: Kylie Jenner’s Kylie Cosmetics for roughly $1.2 Billion. Next what’s says, I’m into me better than Pinterest. It is now the 3^rd largest social media platform and it’s nothing more than a visual post-it note telling myself to buy more things for ME. If my thesis is correct and the world is getting more addicted (mainly to itself) this is great for Pinterest and the decline will be seen in church congregations across the world. The final ME investment is being consumed similar to TV, Social Media, Gambling, and Sports Betting -- its Medicinal and Recreational Marijuana. It was a CRIME to lock people up for something that people are lining up and down the streets to participate in legally.  Weed stocks are very volatile but will continue and have made many people rich legally while it funded the criminal justice system coffers (by locking up the so called gangsters) for so many years.  Now states want in on the action, even though there is no universal Federal law allowing the consumption of recreational weed. While there are too many stocks to name, you’ll see a few listed here: Aurora Cannabis, Cronos, Tilray, Canopy Growth, GW Pharmaceuticals, Cresco Labs, Acreage Holdings all play in the marijuana space.

I’m not judging on any of the trends above and will invest where I truly believe the market is going. But while I do, I can personally decide what I will participate in and won’t. So for now I guess you can call me the un-social media, non-gambling, non-smoking, slightly TV binging guy (The Godfather of Harlem, Power, NFL, + NBA) – hey Lil Wayne…maybe I am a Martian too.

A 21 Savage Look Into – Business Income, Risk, & Expenses

A Conclusion to Side Hustle 101 Series 

Income

Music has always played a big part in people’s life.  Reading through my blog over the years, you will see that it is always top of mind for me. So when I drop some knowledge on the subject of income I could reference:

·         21 Savage – A Lot

·         YG – Big Bank

·         Jay Z – Big Pimpin

But I’d rather hit you with a simple rule I learned I learned from Warren Buffett: “Never Lose Money”. His second rule: “Remember Rule #1”. J  This rule is so crucial I use it as a baseline for my other pillars now:

·         “Never Lose Faith”

·         “Never Stop Learning”

·         “Stay Healthy”

Make sure your business and investments make more money than they lose and life becomes a lot easier. Stress over risks to your business and try to get the best return on your investment when you have expenses.

Risk Management

I spend most of my time stressing over things that will derail my pillars in life and my investments. If I’m eating unhealthy, why not cut back on sugar (easier said than done). If I want to reduce stress, why not focus on prioritization, time management, prayer, and meditation. You get the picture, but many people don’t think about risks UNTIL well they hit them in the face. A few examples:

·         Boeing – Recent crashes that have taken hundreds of lives may possibly be linked to not updating airplane software and a lack of pilot training.

·         Equifax – How ironic is it that the company responsible for our credit scores, history, and maintaining so much of our personal data is hacked ( A close second: Ashley Madison’s website hack and they promote discreet relationships for married people)

·         Lululemon – How smart was it for an athleisure company executive to mock curvier women who wear their clothes when that is your primary customer base

·         Netflix – How about when you do nothing wrong like Netflix, but you have the new “risk” that Apple’s new TV streaming service is now dubbed the ‘Netflix killer’

Well I think you get the point…consider all risks and focus on the biggest ones…your company depends on it.

Expenses

This is no one’s favor subject so let’s make it fun by keeping it simple. There is a reason why so many businesses were started in garages…for the free rent J So stop trying to play the part until you actually have money rolling in. Can you work out of your home or garage and forgo that pricey co-working space.? Do you have expensive software when you have one customer? I saw a show where a small business was going to trade shows every year and losing money (why go?).  Don’t get me started on a company car!!. I constantly evaluate: Office Location vs Co-Working vs Home-based; Software vs Spreadsheet; and Personal Car vs Company Car. Grow your business and make sure that next expense helps increase your bottom-line in the future.   After two good years, I decided to pick up the fully loaded BMW X5 e40 company car (I still have my personal SUV because that's for personal use). In the words of J. Cole on 21 Savage’s “A Lot” à ‘How Many Faking They Streams…I Can See Behind the Smoke and Mirrors People ain’t as Big as They Seem”.   Don't fake your streams and get a car you and your business can't support. Stay humble and grow your business smartly. Peace

Pics of my Company Car (and yes I plug in to get roughly 600 mpg...call me cheap)

Easier Said Than Done...

“It’s been a long time, shouldn’t have left you without a dope beat to step too…”  As you know I have a love for music, especially hip-hop, so when I am thinking a song will often pop into my head.  Here, I am thinking of how long it’s been since I’ve written something to the readers out there.  I admit work, life, and stuff happens but I shouldn’t have left you without a nice article to think about.

I would like to start off by simply just being honest!  One of the primary reasons I have not written anything is that in REALITY there is not that much going on in the investment world.  Maybe I should say it different, the markets have been steadily going UP and there hasn’t been much else.  If you remember, there have been a few moments in the last year or so where I wrote that the stock market indicators lead me to believe that stocks and the overall market were headed higher for the foreseeable future.  If I were a TV personality, I can say “We Predicted This Would Happen!” but the reality is it took months and months of reading, researching, and keeping my eyes and ears open to rationalize where things were logically headed.  The goal while investing is to navigate through ALL of the NOISE (family, friends, and TV people telling you how to invest) and for you to logically conclude about where things like are headed.  Once you get a good idea about that then you can determine what and how much to invest in.  I am here to simply share my thoughts on how I navigate through the noise so that I can share those with you and I can learn from the past by coming back and reading my own writings.  This is helpful in life, because you must navigate through the noise (when choosing a house, car, job, etc.) and really get down to making a sound decision.

Here I am always looking to make a sound investment and I’m going to present 1 topic to assist you on your investment journey:

Easier Said Than Done…

Who to Watch / Company Watch - UPDATE

Who to Watch
My how times have changed!  In the past, young investors like myself would have wanted to follow in the footsteps of corporate raiders, mutual fund managers, and high profile investors.  One well known corporate raider is Carl Icahn, he and other corporate raiders were legendary for taking over companies or agitating boards for significant change. There was also those legendary mutual fund managers that made people in my parent's generation a lot of money by investing through their fund. Some well know names here are Peter Lynch (Fidelity), Bill Miller (Legg Mason), Bruce Berkowitz (Fairholme), and many others.  The last group of high profile investors are guys like Warren Buffet and George Soros.  Today some of the most well known money makers are in the hedge fund industry.    A small difference from the previous investors in the past, are hedge funds try to make money when markets are up or down by betting on and against the performance of stocks.  Here is a run-down of some of my favorite hedge fund managers:

• Steve Cohen, David Einhorn, John Paulson, Seth Klarman, 
• Bill Ackman, David Nierenberg, Monish Pabrai, Ray Dalio

JOBS, Company Watch - JOE, BKS, LULU, NFLX

January 9, 2012

JOBS BY THE NUMBERS

If you weren’t paying attention, some important data was released this week.  The US Labor Department released the number of jobs that were gained/lost in the previous month.  Drum roll…companies hired 200,000 employees in December and the famous unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%.  If you aren’t familiar with the numbers this is POSITIVE in my book.  The reasons are: (1) More people have been getting jobs and this has been consistently happening since last summer, (2) The jobs are being added across small, medium, and large companies, and (3) Jobless claims (i.e., people filing unemployment claims) are falling.  In case you were following along at home, the number usually has to be over 125,000 to signify that jobs are being added. 

We want more jobs, I want more jobs, and we should expect that are federal, state, schools, and citizens will do and try everything to continue to get this number to a level that allows our country to grow and people to work consistently.  So please when we watch debates or listen to the evening news keep that in perspective that without jobs a lot of other things seem pretty trivial.

COMPANY WATCH – St. Joes Company (NYSE: JOE) / Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS)

St. Joes Company – This stock is a great example of trusting your instinct.  I like the prospects of taking a contrarian, or against the grain, stand on some investments.  JOE was one of those companies that I thought is a better investment than owning home builders.  My thesis is you get to own land and that has an intrinsic value that should hold its worth in economic downturns like the ones we’ve suffered.  Well to make a long story short, I believe I had the right thesis however I never expected there was going to be such a dispute as to what the true value of the land is.  David Einhorn made a compelling case as to why the value of the land St. Joes held wasn’t worth what St. Joes was claiming and the stock has fallen sharply.  WELL, finally there appears to be some upside to the stock.  I’ve noticed that some analysts have upgraded their outlook based on future growth prospects.  The development of land in the Panama City area, the recent development of an international airport, and recent cost cutting measures are signs that they might be moving in the right direction. 

Price: $14.67

                                          

Barnes and Noble – I am a sucker for stocks on the decline and Barnes and Noble is showing up on my radar. The other day is dropped roughly 20% on news that they were changing their future outlook lower.  That is never good and investors let them have it.  BKS even mentioned making changes such as spinning of their NOOK business. 

Price: $11.65 

COMPANY WATCH  - Lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU)  / Netfilx (NASDAQ: NFLX)  

Lululemon – I’ve had my eye on LULU for quite some time now.  This stock has been a high flier and it you don’t know they make money by selling $100 dollar yoga pants.  Yoga, it’s all the craze for people with money and to show of that dough they buy expensive pants to get their work out on.  Well LULU had come under some pressure and the stock dropped a bit.  I am a stock hater here! And because I like things on the cheap I want LULU to fall further before I begin buying.  I may not be able to get that opportunity because LULU seems to go one direction and that’s up.

 Price: $53.44

Netflix – Quick note, I trashed it on the way down and I love a good rebound.  NFLX, at the lows of $70 is attractive to me.  It’s rebounded strongly and they recently talked about expanding further internationally.

Price: $98.18

Happy New Years

Happy New Years from URBANOMICS

I wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Years. To all the first time investors, part-time investors, or people interested in their financial well being: Welcome to the site that explains everything financial in an easy to understand format.  We have it all covered from how to check your credit for free, tax advice, and where to invest in the complex stock market. 

Market Recession or Rally??

Rally or Recession...

Roughly about a week ago we all were a little queasy after viewing our portfolios and 401K accounts.  The economic picture in the US and in Europe made us all nervous and sent the markets in a spiral downward.  The levels we briefly hit were low, so low that it nearly reached a 20% drop from the peak of where the market were earlier this year.  This dubious drop is typically referred to as a 'Bear Market'.  Since April, the markets have dropped about 17% from its levels at that time and have been rocky since then.  Sooo are we back and is this RALLY for REAL???  Well you may not like what history says about 'Bear Markets'!  Bear Markets are often marked with quick bursts of large gains like we've started to see last week and into this week.  Why the roller coaster ride, maybe its because we (e.g. investors) have no clue each day which direction we think the markets are heading.  And if we are clueless, history has often indicated that reality will often set in and then begins to turn back down.

URB Brief Notes:

- Netflix fumbles and backtracks. They drop separate websites, keep the high pricing and continue to disappoint.

- Sprint tumbles on news that costs are rising. Not to mention they aren't selling the I Phone 4S, which was just released...just the I Phone 4.  I haven't seen David Einhorn bolt from his position so hold tight and double down off the 52 week low.

- I'll be releasing my latest quarterly alerts shortly, an interesting bunch. 

Economic Outlook, YAHOO, All Talk, & Netflix...

Urbanomics Outlook on the Economy
Here is my outlook on the economy. The economy is like a leaky faucet, slowly dripping. If you review the last few months, the data supporting jobs and economic growth have been bad kind of like when your faucet is clogged up. But every now and then you get a surprise and a few gushes come out and occasionally the economic numbers have had a few surprises. But if you put it all together the economy continues to be a very slow drip for a population of Americans that are thirsty for jobs and an economic rebound to our investments, 401K portfolios, real estate, and lifestyles.

Do You Yahoo?
I know I do. I use Yahoo all the time. Yahoo is my home page, my email service and also my source for fantasy football. But even with all these reasons they are having trouble keeping up with the big boys of technology (Google, Amazon, Ebay). They are even used as a verb, no one ever asks whether you ‘Yahooed’ something! Well it may be time to circle the wagon on this old reliable tech company. We have a little help in stirring the pot. Dan Loeb, founder of the hedge fund Third Point sent a scathing letter to Yahoo’s Board and then kindly reminded them that he now owns a roughly 5% stake in the company. Here at Urbanomics we are fans of investors that stir the pot and when it happens at unloved companies like Yahoo we get excited.

New Tech Titans, Double Dips, & Don't Label Me...

New Tech Titans

The technology field is definitely active as social networking, gaming, movies, and music continue to seamlessly weave themselves into our daily lives. It's time to refresh your memory on the new tech titans on the block.  First off, Facebook leads the charge with their recent announcement of new features: (1) group chat, (2) new designs, & (3) video chat. Many people can't wait for the day this stock IPO's or goes public.  Next is Google, who is offering Google+ a competing social network site and chomping at the bit for more targeted advertising.  And then there is the simplicity of Netflix.  Netflix is now streaming throughout many homes on a regular basis and they are betting that you will stick around even as they raise prices.  Sorry to break the news but Netflix prices are going up for everyone...will you pay up?

Other hot technology firms are Linked In, Pandora, Zynga, Square, and others which are changing the way we interact, watch movies, and listen to music. Then we have Groupon which could be potentially be valued ar roughly $20 Billion dollars when they IPO, or become a public company.  The question often asked is “Do You Remember The Technology Bubble?” and is it happening all over again. I do believe that some of these firms are legit, but I think a few won't be as popular as they are today. Stay tuned for further posts as I tackle which technology stocks will survive the digital renaissance.

Double Dip??

The economy may be suffering from a really bad hangover that was worse than we originally thought.  Financial stocks, housing stocks, and high levels of consumer debt make you wonder if we've learned anything at all from the 2008 crisis.  I just don't have the feeling that we are out of the woods yet and I've been cautious for quite awhile.  I don't think I am alone anymore as there have been rumbling about more stimulus...is there Quantitative Easing on the horizon, well the Fed might think so.  Can you say QE3

Notes from the Matix - April Download Pt II

Pharma
Pharma is short for pharmaceuticals and this has traditionally been an industry that I have shied away from as I’ve tried my best to incorporate a rule that I have learned from Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch awhile ago: Invest In Things That You Know

This is at odds at times with the strategy that I’ve been harnessing over time and that’s being a MACROVALUEQUANT. Often, my screens lead me select a stock that I believe has positive momentum (QUANT) and I further weed out these stocks if they are not trading at a low valuation (VALUE) and support my general view on what industries and sectors should do well in the current global economic environment (MACRO). My screens recently led me to 2 pharma stocks (See Pharma Premium Alerts Post) and I was very reluctant to nibble at the bait.

Questions on Technology Stocks

I wanted to post my high level thoughts on three technology stocks that I was asked to consider.

Applied Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) - I am nervous about this stock because they’ve never been able to get over the hump. I tempted to call them a dog with fleas. There is reason to be concerned as the Board of Directors (BOD) canned the CEO because they thought he wasn't built for the next wave in the PC industry… tablets. It is mind boggling that the CEO may not steer the company in the right direction. How hard is the chip sector to understand, smaller devices (phones, tablets, netbooks) is the direction to go.

URB Recommendation – Pass on this pup



Coinstar (NASDAQ: CSTR) - I have really liked this stock for quite a few years now. This one qualifies as one that got away because I liked it back when it was in the $20 range. I won’t take any credit because a friend who is very loyal to Motley Fool uncovered this gem awhile back and has held ever since. Not many realize they are the brains behind Redbox, which everyone seems to be familiar with. There stock recently fell (roughly 25%), I believe out of concern that the company was being squeezed on their margins.

URB Recommendation – Need more research to identify buying opportunity


Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) – I learned from my Napster days if it’s so simple and convenient for people to adopt, then it will be a hit. And Netflix definitely qualifies for this category. I have not used the service but they took off and never looked back. This story definitely qualifies as one that I left get away and I’ve been watching closely. I don’t necessarily like what I see at this point: Plump valuation, hedge funds taking the opposite position, and new competitors popping up everyday. I see this now as a crowded space. They are facing new competition from Hulu, Apple TV, Google TV, DVR's, Redbox, etc.

URB Warning – The Chief Financial Officer (CFO) recently quit, which is strange?!?! Also, when the hedge funds came out shorting and talking bad about the company…the CEO responded….ODD, as CEO don’t you have anything better to do?!?!?

URB Recommendation – More tempted to short this stock, but don’t feel bad about doing nuthin!

Tough Times

I don't believe the underlying economics have changed right now for the US. Need more proof check out the personal testimonials of American's across the country. These are everyday people and they are sharing how the recession, inflation, credit crunch, and housing bubble are affecting them. See this story from CNN.COM:

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/news/0803/gallery.real_stories/index.html

So with these realities right in front of us. I still REPEAT that I like same industries that I have been discussing for the last few months.

Commodites - Examples are steel, oil, gas
Technology
International & Multinationals
Popular Product Companies - Research in Motion (blackberry), Netflix, Apple

URB RADAR:
Check out a few of the companies that have come up during my screens:

Ricks Cabaret (NASDAQ:RICK)
New York Times (NYSE:NYT)
Phillip Morris International (NYSE:PMI)

Urb Buzz --- July '07

Welcome to that ringing that won't leave your ear. I know you think I am talking about those annoying cicadas that were buzzing everywhere you went, but that buzz is Urbanomics in ya ear. The buzz combines my principles of using urbanomics to topics that are to hard to understand.

Topic 1 - Risk vs Reward

I am surprised myself that Lindsey Lohan makes my blog, but urbanomically I have to say something. What oh what is this child doing and why doesn't someone get her some real help. Simply the risk here doesn't match the rewards. If Lindsay was a stock we'd issue a huge sell at this point. Like the stock market you invest in something that is reliable and will appreciate over time. Lohan is far from reliable and she is way to risky. What's unfortunate is this chick is out there still driving and could hurt herself and even worse innocent people out there on the streets. But remember in the stock market a company can keep going as long as it's got the cash to do business. So what do we recommend her at the Urb...pull the plug. Yes its time for all of the parties involved to pull the funds from behind this underperforming stock we know as Lohan. Movie deals, endorsements, product lines, etc need to pick up their tents and move on. Many people forgave the first incident but the second time was a slap in the face. There are outcries against another celebrity and corporate america is almost ready to pull the plug (Nike has put his shoe on hold & he has be ordered not to report to training camp)...yep you guessed it Michael Vick. How about pulling the plug on Lohan's new movie, ohhh wait there may be too much money involved. Time to treat all these raggedy stars the same and sell they hype!

Topic 2 - Movie Night?

Netflix just turned "R" rated. Yes ladies and gents, all you movies watchers probably knew this before I did but I didn't pay attention to the signs. How about the fact that my sister used to rent through Netflix, but I noticed recently a switch back to Blockbuster. Why, because Blockbuster decided to give the farm away and you can rent movies online, but return them to stores for a speedy drop off. Genius move right, not exactly...Blockbuster has to be bleeding cash to pull this strategy off. But until then Netflix will be under pressure because margins are probably razor thin (not to mention that the dummies don't charge you for shipping). And to top if off, Netflix's website was down for most of today...great move when your customers can only go to one place to ORDER movies.