March Matrix Notes

I could do a follow up on why I'm a MACROVALUEQUANT, but who has time, its time to unload my thoughts and unplug from the matrix. I do a lot of reading on the train and listening to the radio and have started taking notes. In the past few weeks, I've tuned into the following discussions and readings:

Ray Dalio (find his discussion on CNBC)
Mr Dalio is the hedge fund titan who runs Bridgewater Associates and rarely makes tv appearances (I heard). After a few moments of defending his unusual methods running his firm, the man behind the world's largest hedge fund was very open about the cycle of leveraging and deleveraging and where the US is at in its cycle after the crisis. He talked about the following subjects:

He noted US Equities are cheap and will benefit from currency devaluations
The money flows will benefit equities
Portfolios are not properly weighted, too much in dollar denominated currencies
Gold is a currency that many are underweight
Stimulus will last through the 4th quarter, and private credit growth will be needed

Tax Cuts...Yes or No??

I am a market guy but I must write here in this article that I am surprised about how often every issue that the administration embarks on is severely attacked. The rule of thumb is you have reached a good level of compromise on Wall Street or in Washington when you pass a bill that has both sides of the debate a little unhappy. So my perspective of the Tax Cut debate is simple. We've officially reached the level where we have too many whiners and not enough leaders. Especially ones that will tell the truth. In my opinion, President Obama has done a decent job of navigating the water of a highly politicized atmosphere and prime example are the tax cuts.

This deal and its timing are both solid! First both people on the left and on the right are complaining, check. Second, unfortunately since you can't believe the moving lips of many in Washington listen to outside people. I'll listen to Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of Pimco, who has a great perspective on the markets. He points out that the market is headed in the right direction and even increases his overall outlook for next year, DUE to the actions of the White House. The tax cuts are extended for every for the next 2 years and while that may not be the smartest move for the deficit, the KEY element for also extending the cuts for the top 2% (which is what the Republicans want) was getting a series of main street and business tax cuts that STIMULATE the US economy going forward. Tag on the extension of unemployment benefits and this may truly be a multi -pronged jolt that our economy needs to beef up growth. Look at the reaction of the markets...they are responding well hope, now lets hope us folks on main street feel the shock. To be fair, he notes two main themes are the results of a higher outlook:

Fiscal Policy - This would be actions led by President Obama on tax cuts, which contain many parts that will stimulate our weak economy.

Monetary Policy - This would be the Fed's QE2 money printing policy which juices the markets.

This is a great move by President Obama to turn the political posturing into an economical bang for our economy.