All Things Investing: Gas Prices | Interest Rates | Venture Cap | Crypto

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

Don't Complain About Gas Prices --- Invest

I recently reminded a cyber student training under me not to complain when they see gas prices rising. Use it as a lesson, when things are low buy them on discount. In my older posts, hopefully you noticed the trend where I began to buy few oil and gas investments:

UCO - Bloomberg Crude Oil

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) -  a oil and gas exploration and production company

When gas at the pump was super low, that was a signal for me to buy it and store it as an investment (so to speak). My only problem as you read was trying to get to cute. It was volatile and I sold it to take advantage of what some of my billionaire buddies do, tax loss harvesting. While UCO was down I sold in at the end of the year to offset my gains and my plan was to repurchase around January 31st (because you have to wait 30 days) to buy back into it for tax purposes. Well all through January oil started to skyrocket. As my wife says, don't be cute just pay the damn taxes...yes ma'am.

Finance 101 - Interest Rates

Many on main street (that's you) don't know that their bank's mortgage rates are loosely tied to the Treasury's 10 Year Interest Rate. I won't bore you with my poor man's econ class but when interest rates drop, mortgage rates soon follow. My next reminder is be patient. I have been talking about refinancing for months now and I finally got the terms I was looking for and close in 1 week. I own 2 home both with rates at 3.25% or lower which means I have optionality going forward. More to come.

Hedge Funds | Venture Capital | Private Equity

I like to speak things into existence and I look forward to starting a wealth management fund someday. I have my hands full in the cybersecurity space but if Elon Musk can build Tesla, solar panels and SpaceX...I must learn how to build my disparate business to scale and sustainability. I was listening to the CEO of a tech firm called Bevy described how they partnered with minority venture funds and I was surprised to learned these VCs (as they are called) are prominently displayed on their website...job well done Bevy...I want to learn how to use your product too. This has motivated me to link with VCs of color such as Kobie Fuller, Arlan Hamilton, Mac Conwell, TD Lowe, Reuben Ogbonna II, Mandela Schumacher-Hodge Dixon, Baron Davis (former NBA player), Olatunde Sobomehin, and Michael Johnson (yes Olympic Gold Medalist) and others who were listed as investors or advisors to this young start up. A reminder here to save your pennies...it takes money to make money. To invest in COMPANIES you need to expose yourself to more than just stocks, investing in private companies often leads to outsized gains just ask Nas (made an estimated $100M) and Kevin Durant in Coinbase.

Cost Conscious (Value Investing)

I was reading an article which tried to give insight into Roku recent resurgence. For those of you that don't know Roku have been an amazing investment for me. It's easily in my Mansa Musa Hall of Fame and just became a 2 Bagger!! Yes major bag alert as Wendy's would say. The article is what I would call a two-fer. It discussed a rumor that Comcast might consider sliding into the DM of Roku and or VIACOMCBS. Both stocks are major holdings of mine and I've benefited greatly in the last few weeks from this speculation that Comcast needs to strengthen its streaming option called Peacock. ViacomCBS was beaten down to the point where they traded at prices I like...like getting a 50c candy bar...which is rare to find. So I buy and hold and hope others see the value in a hidden gem. Roku on the other hand is a serious disrupter. We have a Roku soundbar and love it! This is a Growth stock true and true. It's like owning Drake when he signed to Young Money, the investment just keeps delivering.

I'm not a businessman...I'm a Business

So my side hustle has been doing amazing. It sounds simple but to build a company you need to be a company that can solve someone's problem. I've found a way to do that by simply not saying NO. I used to term business away because I wasn't looking at the writing on the wall. Companies all across the country contact me for cybersecurity help. So eventually I stopped saying no and started saying how can I help you. I've hired 3 staff in the last month and this is me moving slowly because my focus right now is on my health. But nothing is more empowering that to give people hope, to give them jobs, and to plant seeds. I plan to spin-off a business that will help people get their business registered, use digital invoicing, payroll, cashflow, and bookkeeping/accounting tools. I hire all types of people but focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion goals to ensure there is diversity in tech. The biggest thing I share with my cyber advisors, consultants, residents, and interns --- is have great soft skills. Don't just be confident on your block --- be confident in a board room, meeting, or gala too. 

Cyber - Crypto, Ransomware

I've been flooded with news about Crypto. I'm still on record, what value does it serve me IF I have to convert that investment back into dollars. I could have just used Zelle, Paypal, Cash App, Venmo. So clearly the primary purpose for bitcoin until full regulation comes in for illegal and illicit activities. My investment in Symantec / NortonLifeLock has boomed as NortonLifeLock has said it will allow consumers to mine for crypto in the future. Breaches are through the roof because the hackers trade in bitcoin in hopes that their trail can't be caught...isn't that basically money laundering. But the hope of Bitcoin may be a bit oversold. Did you read the story about how US was able to retrieve millions of  ransom dollars paid in the Colonial Pipeline hack. Can anyone tell me how that happened for a secure encryption platform where the transactors are anonymous. Either the password was hacked, stolen, or those transactors weren't as anonymous as they thought. Either way I'll stick with my insured bank account for now and just Zelle you your cut of dinner. 

Peace I'm Out

Q&A Session --- Questions About A Coronavirus Recession

Yo, why is Jadakiss as hard as it gets?
Why is the industry designed to keep the artist in debt?

Why you don't stack instead of trying to be fly?
Why is ratting at an all time high?

Lyrics from Jadakiss --- Why ft. Anthony Hamilton

Q&A with the Lyrics from Why

Let me help my guy Jada out really quick: Jada Question: Why is the industry designed to keep the artist in debt? Urbanomics Response: Well Jada the bigger question is why was your song written in 2009 but this question is still applicable even today. Ripped from the headlines: Taylor Swift, Mase, Megan thee Stallion --- all recently complained about contract dealings in the past year. You heard me hear say Jay Z and Master P gave you the blueprint -- independent. Funny you were referring to the music industry but ironically this seems to apply to most every industry I can think off. Let's take the NFL and NBA players who constantly are asking for a fairer share of the total profits as live sports is cable's last hope. We see players as spoiled, rich and entitled but do you find it interesting that someone pays their salary AND no one (main street, public, suburbs, politicians, etc.) ever calls the OWNERS spoiled, rich and entitled? How about the fact that college athletes in America can make universities AND coaches millions of dollars but the players don’t get paid…let alone their are no where near their fair share OR market value of the contribution they made to the profits of the college sports industry. I just saw that disgraced college basketball coach Rick Pitino, who once had a $55 Million dollar at the university of Louisville, is now allowed to coach again at Iona…even though he was the coach during the school’s biggest scandal which uncovered players getting perks and incentives (under the table) to come and play for the school. Did all the players on his team become millionaires during that run -- funny in the business world we have a fancy word called profit sharing. Maybe the NCAA didn't get that economic memo. Jada Question: Why you don't stack instead of trying to be fly? Urbanomics Response: Let me help those who are a little challenged by our smooth language --- to stack means to save money. Trying to be fly --- insert: spoiled, rich, and entitled.  Jada we haven’t even talked about the “economic” industry --- is this designed to keep the aritist public in DEBT? The public continues to take on debt at an alarming rate AND from a young age: Student Loans, Credit Cards, Auto/Car Loans, Home Loans. If the system is working and fair, why is every article about students swimming in debt. Every piece of mail is another company asking me to take my already high credit card debt and “consolidate” it with more debt they are willing to offer me. Wait there’s more --- I can take debt out to purchase my brand new fancy car and of course my home which has more seats and rooms than people in it, respectively.  The US is one of the few developed to offer a 30 year mortgage. What a beautiful concept --- let’s give you debt for something you spend most of your adult life paying for. With interest IF you ever held your home until paid off you likely spent more 40+ years paying for that home. But similar to the whiny NFL players who we complain about --- who are the owners that allow people to take debt out like this?? I could rattle off every company but what’s the point --- the real question is why is main street not taught money, budgeting, debt, savings, retirement, wills, insurance, and how healthcare works?    Real Questions I Received this Week Q: Do you like leverage and is now the time to lever up? A: For those of you out there, leverage is borrowing debt (money you don’t own) and using it for purposes like investing in assets (home, stocks, etc.). I do not think now or ever is truly the time to borrow money.  Something I learned from Warren Buffet is during tough times, when tide comes in you’ll see who was swimming naked. What he is referring to is debt, and the tide is an economic or financial crisis. When it hits, swimming naked means you are OVER LEVERED --- you have too many debts that cannot be paid.  My motto since my dad required I get a job at 14 was that I would never take on true debt. I sacrificed for the greater good and went to a state school so the fees would be less and I earned scholarships to help with the cost. Was it enough – no I used debt (my credit card) to get me through the lean moments which were usually the last few months of each year. But only because I made a promise that every penny of my summer job would go to paying off that debt.  I treat debt like the Lannisters in the Game of Thrones --- don’t get into debt but when you do always plan to pay if off. While I pay my debts on time, it's because I want to have the privilege to access credit (mainly during bad times to benefit on fire sales). Public Service Announcement: If you are in too deep, see if your lendor/creditor will work with you to forgive some of the debt...do not be ashamed many people do this and many corporations go through bankruptcy all the time (it's easier for businesses). A: Now is not the time to borrow more debt because the markets are too turbulent and more downside is to come. I do think you should have Money/Capital/Savings set aside to take advantage of the upside when we do get through this crisis. But those funds should rarely ever be someone else’s money --- then you forgot one our cardinal rules --- never take on debt or you may be the one they find swimming naked. What someone giveth, they will taketh and they usually come knocking only when times are bad. Don’t confuse leverage or debt with equity.  For example, I plan to invest during the downturn but I would rather put my rainy day savings to use OR my equity in my home.  If I lose my own money, I have no one to blame but myself. Losing someone else’s money may mean a lot of sleepless nights. I am evaluating using my home’s equity but this does involve risk. If you look back to my posts in 2009-2010, I was one of the few who had savings and no debt during the depths of the crisis.  Unfortunately, there were many home foreclosures and asset repossessions going on. I bought my home on a fire sale from a local bank that similar to many people fell in love with giving people too much debt or the wrong people debt. Revisit that process here (note my house is one of those in the pictures): https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2010/04/homebuying-101-tour-baby-tour.html My equity in my home means I have gains since I first made my purchase and I can borrow against that --- but the risk IS your home is the collateral. So to reduce your risk, I advise if you try this approach DO NOT take the full amount of equity in your home. If we are headed for a downturn and your home value decreases that $100K in gains may be more like $50K. Q: Why is oil going down so much? A: Haha be happy and take advantage of cheap prices. Prices are so low, someone commented to me I don’t remember the last time prices were below $2. The reason prices went down are primarily because of Saudi Arabia, no conspiracy theory here just market forces at work.  And this IS NOT linked to the coronavirus.  The Saudis increased oil output after they could not reach an agreement with Russia to limit oil production. In economics if you have too much product that you cannot sell --- prices WILL come down and they fell to the floor. The virus has made this worse because if people are being quarantined or staying at home the demand for the oil is now dropping.  Urb Lesson 101 – if supply goes up or demand comes down --- the value of a product usually drops. We have both.  I’ve provided a source here as well:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/business/saudi-arabia-oil-prices.html Q: Can you believe it, 3 states have just now issued the shelter-in place strategy that you shared weeks ago were needed? A: Yeah and many more states have closed schools and are allowing people to work from home. I think this is a well needed step in the plan to starve the virus. People are its host and you need to reduce people being in close contact for extended periods of time to starve the virus. The concern I still have as testing is finally ramping up, what is the damage by not doing this sooner and because it is NOT a true national strategy and states are electing to shutdown individually we all may not resume being productive as soon as we’ve seen in other places.  I think many people are using grocery store pickup and delivery, drive thru’s, Uber Eats, and I’ve seen stocks around meal delivery services popping but I’m not as big on this service for the masses.  Q: So when I start to process everything I am seeing and hearing is this all a House of Cards? A: To start, I have never seen the show so I don’t fully know the premise. But I truly understand the disbelief people have in how this has been handled. I think there has been poor leadership and people are panicking, hence the toilet paper craze. I think there are two things at play working separately: 1) Poor leadership results in no trust of the data/information coming from the top. It’s displayed when Trump would rather yell at the reporters than calmly answer the questions we are ALL hoping to hear the plan or solutions too. It’s clear when I get FEMA texts minutes apart from many people that everyone is on high alert and susceptible to hoaxes. That does not happen unless if you don’t TRUST the daily briefing you’re receiving from your CEO or leader. 2) If a virus can bring world to its knees because the fact is revealed that most of us do not have enough saving to cover two weeks of shelter-in place that is a scary proposition.  The new questions that will come are: a) When a family is so far in debt you go into bankruptcy….what does a country do to get out of a mountain of debt? b) If a lot of that debt is used on our medical system why is it being called fragile --- and we only have 400K medical beds nationally?  c) Will every virus, major climate change, and/or recession cause panic and markets to crash like this? d) Who get's a bailout --- it seems this time like everyone needs one?  I pray we are all patient to get through this together and help each outer out. Because it will be a long drawn out process that is leading to an economic recession.  Next week, news is already coming out that the unemployment numbers will skyrocket to somewhere between 2.5 to 3 Million people. Stay tuned in and stay positive. We'll provide more on how we hold it down during a recession

2nd Quarter 2013: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS / 1 FREE ALERT

2nd Quarter 2013: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

2nd Quarter 2013 Premium Stock Alerts

This quarter’s picks are late, but better late than never. I've been researching these stocks over the course of the last 3 months or more and found 3 stocks with margin of safety and the right catalysts.  Please see the following stocks that were recommended to subscribers receiving premium alerts. 

Stock #1: **********

Details

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Oil and Gas Equipment Services Tip: Pledge of Allegiance to crude.

Stock #2: **********

Details Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Oil and Gas Refining Tip: Check mate.

Stock #3: **********

Details

Sector: Technology
Industry: Application Software
Tip Up for a game of Simon Says?

The market has been on a tear and the last few quarters have seen me doing my version of the twist…or rotation.  I have been selling a few of my winners and rotating into new names. Some names were really beat down like Stock #3. Others are the wrath of the investment community which are pushing for them to do more or else new ownership will have too.  I've given you plenty of hints and I’ll even throw in a free ALERT because it was an absolutely gorgeous July 4^th weekend in Chicago.

FREE ALERT

Stock #4: DEX MEDIA

Details

Sector: SERVICES Industry: MARKETING SERVICES Tip It’s a rolodex and paperweight! Explanation: Dex Media is what we used to know as the Yellow and White Pages. They have re-invented themselves and offer a large slate of products to businesses. Hence the rolodex full of numbers and the size of the old book would be a great paperweight.

1st Quarter 2013: PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

1st Quarter 2013: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

1st Quarter 2013 Premium Stock Alerts

My 1st quarter picks are FINALLY OUT. I’ve been researching these stocks over the course of the last 3 months and found 3 stocks with margin of safety and the right catalysts.  Please see the following stocks that were sent to subscribers receiving premium alerts.

Stock #1: **********

Details

Sector: Financial Industry: ????? Tip I've got Montrose...and I'll even count Benton

Stock #2: **********

Details

Sector: Consumer Goods Industry: ????? Tip You need 1 for March Madness...

Stock #3: **********

Details

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Oil and Gas Tip In Texas "Its The Law"

Its March and my newest picks are finally out. The Fed is 'Making It Rain' money and stocks will continue to do well. But I only really like stocks that have been beaten down...like they stole something. So its really getting difficult to find a lot of discounts. More stock reveals coming soon.

2nd Quarter 2012: Premium Stock Alerts

2nd Quarter 2012: 4 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

2nd Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts

I’ve been out digging and hoping to find a few diamonds in the ruff.  One thing that was consistent about these picks this quarter is they are beaten down bunch and we are seeing the big companies being unloved just as much as other stocks.  Some are showing a change is coming, others have dashed the hopes of many investors, and then a few look like they are just chugging along.  Financials, Oil and Gas, and Technology appear to be the themes for this quarter.  These alerts went out to subscribers in May and June.  Take a guess if you enjoy playing at home.

Stock #1: **********

Details

Sector: Financial Industry: Life Insurance Tip Do you know your number, get your money’s worth?

Stock #2: **********

Details

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Major Integrated Oil and; Gas Tip This stock and my pub have a few things in common.

Stock #3: **********

Details

Sector: Financial Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance Tip This stock hopes to put its hanky panky behind it.

Stock #4: **********

Details

Sector: Technology Industry: Diversified Computer Systems Tip I used nutmeg, then took a tablet and now feel better.

Seasonal Selling or A Top In the Stock Market

If you follow most of the commentary right now about the stock market you will see that a common theme is whether you should "SELL IN MAY".  This is a common seasonal trend in the stock market when trading in stocks becomes thin as more traders head off for vacation.  I guess this is somewhat true as I have to head to London here shortly, but its not exactly for vacation. But soon after that I'll find myself in Las Vegas for a little R&R, so I guess this trader will be off eventually for a few days.  There are a few people that are speaking a little louder and signaling that it may be more than seasonal.  I tend to listen to these voices if I find some of the points that they are highlighting credible.  I also tend to tune into these point of views more as friends and family begin to want to talk "shop" with me.  If my friends are asking me about the stock market and telling me how well its been moving and that they have to get back in because they've missed the move up, I start to think.."Uh-Oh the trend may be the markets will start moving down".  When the average Joe is jumping in its usually to late, the smart money has already pounced.  So I am a pretty average guy, so how does this effect me!  Well when I start to get scared about the markets, I try to do the opposite of my impulse and buy.  When things are getting really rosy, I try to sell even though I don't want to.  When I started getting more people talking shop, I sold a few positions, but to be fair, I added a few more of my PREMIUM ALERT picks. The one caveat is I am adding picks that might survive a tough downturn.

Here is a snippet from a BLOOMBERG article of an investor who's painting a picture that's less rosy. Attached is the link to the full article: 

John Burbank, founder of $3.8 billion hedge fund Passport Capital LLC, said he expects a U.S. economic recession this year or in early 2013, according to a letter to investors.

3rd & 4th Quarter Premium Alerts

Due to my recent travels I was very late in posting my 3rd quarter premium alerts.  So this post includes alerts for 7 new stocks.

The third and fourth quarter of 2011 produced seven stocks that Urbanomics paid subscribers will have access to review.  These stocks are consistent with sectors or value plays which I believe should outperform in the current economic environment.

3RD QUARTER STOCK ALERTS

1st Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
OIL and NATURAL GAS
TIP: This stock pumps premier gas for profits.


2nd Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
TECHNOLOGY
APPLICATION SOFTWARE
TIP: This tech stock continues to innovate outside of the box.


3rd Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
FINANCIAL
REGIONAL BANKS
TIP: This stock's cash flows in waves.

4th Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
SERVICES
ENTERTAINMENT - DIVERSIFIED
TIP: This services stock may know more about you than you think.

4TH QUARTER STOCK ALERTS

1st Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
GOLD
TIP: ??


2nd Premium Pick

STOCK: ******
TECHNOLOGY
TIP:  This technology stock is a Silicon Valley staple.


3rd Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
FINANCIAL
LIFE INSURANCE
TIP: ??

Note: This is an alert that this was triggered for URBANOMICS Alert Subscribers. Please email for access to subscription based contents.

Meet Me @ The Gas Pump...It's Going Down

Literally, it may be time to meet at the gas station because the prices are finally going down.  When I thought about gas prices I obviously had the rap song "It's Going Down", by Yung Joc in my head.  It's been going down to the tune of 21 STRAIGHT DAYS with an average price around the country now at $3.60.  Yes I said to the tune...I can get that song outta my head.

Why is this happening??

Economy
 Well, start by taking a look at my last post written almost a month ago that outlined how high gas prices and not enough job creation hurts an economy.  If prices stay high for too long it begins to change the way people do things.  Remember Yung Joc said, "Meet me in the Mall, Meet me in the Club...it's going down"...well when gas prices stay high people start cutting back on buying gas and going to those spots.  As more and more people cut back, carpool, take public transportation or just travel less, the demand for gas will continue to fall and so will the prices. 

Over-Speculation
The other reason is there have been some high profile prosecutions recently of traders who were manipulating oil markets which has an impact on gas.  These traders can at times make the supply or demand greater or less than what the real market demand is for oil and when the fools are removed from the equation it helps to bring gas prices down.

Oil Reserves
Lastly, the US government just released barrels of oil from a strategic reserve that is maintained for emergency situations.  This was a coordinated effort of 28 countries around the world to release oil from emergency stashes in an effort to begin reducing the price and impact high gas is having on the global economy. The group of 28, also known as International Energy Agency (IEA), has taken these steps only three other times in history.

How to Invest - Stay defensive at this point - Dividends, Healthcare, and Energy

2nd Quarter 2011: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

The second quarter of 2011 has produced three stocks that Urbanomics subcribers will have access to review.  These stocks are consistent with sectors that I believe should outperform in the current economic environment.

1st Premium Pick
STOCK: ******
BASIC MATERIALS
OIL & NATURAL GAS
TIP: This oil & gas play has planned big changes coming by the end of the year. Look for it to double, literally!

Click here for the other two premium alerts.

Notes from the Matix - April Download Pt II

Pharma
Pharma is short for pharmaceuticals and this has traditionally been an industry that I have shied away from as I’ve tried my best to incorporate a rule that I have learned from Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch awhile ago: Invest In Things That You Know

This is at odds at times with the strategy that I’ve been harnessing over time and that’s being a MACROVALUEQUANT. Often, my screens lead me select a stock that I believe has positive momentum (QUANT) and I further weed out these stocks if they are not trading at a low valuation (VALUE) and support my general view on what industries and sectors should do well in the current global economic environment (MACRO). My screens recently led me to 2 pharma stocks (See Pharma Premium Alerts Post) and I was very reluctant to nibble at the bait.

Competing Interests...

The current economic environment and its effects over the last few years has made the competing interests of various groups more pronounced during these times. This is why I wanted to write a post about competing interests. Recently, I was reading about the self interests of people as it relates to the low interest rates, which have been rock bottom for a long time now. I was surprised when I learned that savers and risk adverse people (think older adults nearing retirement) are not too excited about the prolonged low interest rates which are not earning them much money on their safe assets in their savings and retirement accounts. Even though the general thought is low interest rates are helpful in stabilizing and spurring growth in the economy, some competing interests say enough is enough. They are saying this because they would prefer to go back to living off higher interest rates. As I begin my data dump of thoughts for the month of April, I find myself torn like many of the elderly who likely want the economy to do well but want their interest income to jump back to life.

March Matrix Notes

I could do a follow up on why I'm a MACROVALUEQUANT, but who has time, its time to unload my thoughts and unplug from the matrix. I do a lot of reading on the train and listening to the radio and have started taking notes. In the past few weeks, I've tuned into the following discussions and readings:

Ray Dalio (find his discussion on CNBC)
Mr Dalio is the hedge fund titan who runs Bridgewater Associates and rarely makes tv appearances (I heard). After a few moments of defending his unusual methods running his firm, the man behind the world's largest hedge fund was very open about the cycle of leveraging and deleveraging and where the US is at in its cycle after the crisis. He talked about the following subjects:

He noted US Equities are cheap and will benefit from currency devaluations
The money flows will benefit equities
Portfolios are not properly weighted, too much in dollar denominated currencies
Gold is a currency that many are underweight
Stimulus will last through the 4th quarter, and private credit growth will be needed

Oil - The Game Changer

This phrase is often used in sports to describe one person that can change the outcome of a game. In many investor's opinion, Saudi Arabia is the country that is a game changer when it comes to oil. You are already aware of the unrest in Northern Africa and the Middle East and this has caused oil to spike (yes, also some speculation by greedy investors has also led to the spike). Many say that the spike would be even larger!!!...if Saudi Arabia was to see the same type of unrest. This piece of news was just broken:

Training Day...Alerts

Come take a ride with me on your first day, just like rookie cop Ethan Hawke took a ride with Denzel...whips I mean Alonzo Harris. See in both of our worlds street justice reigns. In Training Day, Alonzo let his brand of street justice play out until he gets burned. In my world of investing, Wall Street enacts its own brand of street justice. You can get a cheap thrill by not doing your homework and buying the flavor of the month stock. Sometimes you'll win but you don't wanna lose...and get burned like Mr. Harris.

To help you transition into this tough game of investing I'll take you on a Walk down Walk Street. We are gonna ride because its not a race, its actually hours and hours of research to find deeply valued plays that have explosive potential. I believe in my process and hope to share some of these deep values with you. Email me to begin receiving alerts so that you can follow along while being your own boss by picking your own selections.

Here is a quick summary of my most recent Alerts:

I Am Investor

Now I am no Will Smith in I Am Legend, but by being one of the few non-believers of the rapid rise of the real estate market I often felt like I stood alone. This was often documented here at Urbanomics and my lone bad investment that reminded me to always stick to my judgement was in New Century Financial. So is being Legend easy, actually yes just pick up the Wall Street Journal. Yesterday's paper confirmed my recent post about INFLATION, which continues its rise and has reached its highest level in 27 years.

Next, we discussed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and their sharp decline. Freddie recently auctioned more of its debt as rumors continue to swirl about a possible government bailout. If the government steps in to bail out shares at very low prices current investors could basically be left with nothing.

Oil & Gas has rebounded today and saw gains of roughly 5%. This is largely due to the disruptions between Russia and Georgia. Our position in natural gas pipelines should fare well during these times.

The last point I will discuss is one that I believe will continue to play out in the retail sector. I believe that a number of the retailers benefitted from the economic stimulus plan and many had really good quarters. I have already highlighted retailer, Big Lots, who I think like Wal-Mart benefitted from this factor. Notice that Wal-Mart noted that they see future weakness and Target also see declines. I will closely watch the retailers and look to short players like Big Lots when they rebound and closely reach their 52 week high.

Fact or Fiction

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were off roughly 45% this week.

- FACT: These are Government Sponsored Entities (GSE) that engage in mortgage purchasing and providing funds to mortgage lenders, respectively. Their stocks prices have tanked this week from fear of going bankruptcy. However pay close attention because many on Wall Street believe that some type of government bailout will be necessary to save these firms.

Inflation on the rise.

- FACT: Inflation or at least the fears that your dollar is stretching thinner and thinner continues to rise. Normally during times of inflationary concern, investors would flock towards a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or government bonds but that is not happening. Should you be concerned, YES, because you must follow the money and Wall Street is telling you to be concerned because the price of GOLD is rising, OIL has pushed through record prices, and ohhh I forgot the housing and auto industries are collapsing. Don't believe me, see the lastest story about Indymac, which became the largest US bank in history to be seized by the government.

You should feel good about the market, and keep holding on to your stocks.

- FICTION: Sorry folks for the first time ever my outlook is very dismal from here. If you are a gunslinger, then please at least hedge your portfolio against further downside risk. For the rest of us, continue to sell most of your winners, cut your ties with losers, and get defensive!!!

Your defensive plays are:

OIL : Problems in Iraq and Israel & Iran, disruptions in Nigeria and Russia ALL mean oil will continue to rise. I don't believe speculators play a big role in the price and I don't think the potential of domestic drilling will impact the short term price.
GOLD: Gold is on the rise and so are future prices, which means that investor faith in the dollar continues to decline.
CASH: Cash is always KING and have cash in your portfolio ain't always a bad thing. Wait out this storm, because it could be awhile.