Margin of Safety Leads to Big Time Gains - Micron | Snap | Dave Busters | Roblox | Zoom Media

 Hello and a very happy Friday to all. It has been a busy, very busy and blessed year so far. As I mentioned in my last post, I welcome my first son and our last child to this world. So many prayers and blessings for him as he enters this amazing world. I'm watching my kids, my businesses, my friendships, and my mind grow --- and it makes me smile. My goal is to stay positive and push positivity out into the world but being that I specialize in 'risk management' I still find myself constantly trying to create moats to protect that things that are most important to me. We'll delve more into this topic into the future, but I'm curious how do you think about creating moats and protecting things you value? 

I'll take this topic of protection and spin it back to my investments. I will not lie to you 2022 -- has been a year of minimal investments on my part. The first reason is my technology business has been growing leaps and bounds so I've focused my energy here. Secondly, you'll recall that I began to get very cautious on the markets last year and into early this year. I was a bit slow but look back and read, I moved my entire retirement funds out of stocks. I'm not trying to time the market per se, but I am trying to create a moat. Game of Thrones analogy --- If you see a dragon coming, I think you should get out of the way. As some of the investors in my Mansa Musa network have mentioned and I have tried to share -- when the Federal Reserve is raising rates, you better get out of the way. Now to be transparent, my personal stock account is still active and for the most part I am completely exposed to stocks. So I've taken the SAME losses as you -- and anyone who tells you they haven't lost money is basically lying, I call CAP, as they say nowadays.

So how do I change my strategy:

1) I slow down my investing and research more (Example: If you can't pass the test of if I can $10K would I put it all in one stock -- then don't buy the stock)

2) I create a bigger moat, or cushion for loss. (Example: If I like Snap at $8 - I think $7 in this environment is better cushion

3) Don't rush to trade quickly -- Like love, there is no need to be in a hurry.

Here are my trades for October. Many of these were made months ago. The important thing to notice is I got the amount of cushion right. I'll leave you with SNAP. I bought SNAP when the stock plummeted, then is moved up nicely and now they just recently reported earning and plummeted again. The good thing was I bought in with margin of safety (i.e., moat or cushion) that allowed me to withstand all that volatility).

Finally - Don't gawk at the wins, because every trade and every month does NOT turn out like this. But the goal is to try and achieve consistency like this.

Peace and love to and more lessons to come.

#Urbanomics #getthebag #Micron #Snap #DaveandBusters #ZoomMedia #Moat #marginosaftey

What I'm Watching - Elon Musk + Twitter Acquisition

 Many that know me will attest that I'm a matter-of-fact person who is stubborn when I feel like I've done my research and feel confident about a point that I'm making. When I'm making a point, I try to come up with my thesis first and then I look for evidence supporting or denying my position. I guess this would be similar to a poker player attempting to determine what hand their opponent has prior to making a betting decision. While human nature lends me (and us all) to usually sticking to our point of view, I tend to seek out articles, videos, and also feedback from my inner circle and my Mansa Musa network to pressure test my point of view. Like traveling through a car wash, pressure testing my thoughts involves me finding viewpoints that may differ from mine and cleaning up my thesis.

Thesis on Twitter

Twitter has been one of those few "investments" you've seen me write about recently. There is nothing magical about my trade except for the fact that I believe Twitter was a valuable position once Elon declared he was interested in purchasing the company. I gained more confidence as I learned about the terms of the investment and how the requests for data were provided to Elon. 

So, let's fast forward to last week as I finally got the news I had originally expected. Last week, Elon Musk's lawyers reached out to Twitter requesting the trail be put on hold and that his investment in the company would proceed as previously communicated. In basic terms, Elon either saw or was advised that the outcome may not be leaning in his favor. I'll keep an eye on Twitter and Elon news as I look forward to Elon finalizing the acquisition. 

Full Disclosure: I own Twitter in both my personal and retirement account portfolios and picked up this position AFTER Elon discussed his interest in purchasing the company. I've traded TWTR before and those positions were small but profitable (but I'll do some research to confirm how profitable). This is a simple arbitrage play. Elon says he was going to purchase the company, so I built a small position banking on closure of this deal. 

#arbitrage #Urbanomics #Twitter #ElonMusk