Yeah this line was coined by my boy 50 Cent for awhile. And word on da street...wall street that is...was that Fiddy was on Cavuto, a financial show probably showing off his investment muscle. Now I haven't seen the clip of his on the show but can he have time to be making the returns that we are over here at Urbanomics. Maybe after his stake in Vitamin Water got bought out, but we bring the platinum picks and he brings the platinum hits.
Today I wanted to write about Emcore (NASDAQ:EMKR), if you have been patient with us...and btw you haven't had to wait long, we hit our target already. Yes boys and girls, EMKR was up around 8% on no news that I am aware of. This volatile stock, was a short term pick of mine and for anyone following I am selling EMKR here. This is a quick 10% gain and I will look to revisit my friend EMKR when it declines back to a price around $10. I would Superman this stock back at the $9.15 level and be a strong accumulator around 9.79.
Lastly I spoke to soon on Adaptec (NASDAQ:ADPT) by about a day or two. I was getting some weird stock chart readings on ADPT and it didn't jump like I had expected. But here is the good news, ADPT reported earnings and beat estimates by .05c. That led the stock higher and if you read into the earning release by the CEO, you will also notice what I call is a subtle hint at good things to come for us. Attached is the comments, provided by Market Wire:
"While our top line results were above the company's expectations, we continue to face difficult market conditions," explained S. "Sundi" Sundaresh, president and CEO of Adaptec. "Despite these challenges, the company has made significant progress during the quarter in several key areas: our restructuring plan announced last quarter is on track to fully realize the expected savings by the end of the fiscal year; our Data Protection and Storage Solutions groups have each released new products and the early indicators of customer reaction are positive; and we reached an agreement with Steel Partners, and together, I expect, we will pursue a course designed to maximize value for all of our stockholders."
Urbanomic readers, I know one thing and when companies align with Private Equity firms to MAXIMIZE VALUE...that usually means great things for stockholders because they lead to buyouts, stock buyback programs, splitting up the company, or anything that makes them money. Hope you jumped all aboard ADPT, b/c again you could have had ADPT at 3.40 today which is the price that I have REPEATEDLY said is a great level to continue to add shares.
Enjoy the quick hit gain with EMKR and lets watch ADPT open higher tomorrow.
Disclosures: I sold EMKR today
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Monday, October 29, 2007
Adaptec...Time to Sell?
Look people, I love the challenge that has been thrown in front on me. If I tell you I like something you are going to keep me to my word when its down and probably not remind me when its up (Not all of you...thx for the personal emails about BNI, BBY, ADVS). But I like a good challenge so that is why I have set up my stock tracking tool. Now this tool is not the greatest because I can't always get the optimal price points that I recommend on here or actually buy in my personal portfolio.
If I tell the tool to buy a stock, say ADPT tomorrow, it will wait until the open...then because most websites (Yahoo, CNNfn,etc) are on a 20 minute delay it won't buy ADPT until 20 minutes after the market is open. This works well only if the stock isn't moving to the upside, or else the tool is tracking my recommendation at a higher price. I will work on fixing this problem...but until then pay attention to the PRICE POINTS that I list here at URBANOMICS. A quick refresher...PRICE POINTS give you an idea of when I think the stock is buy. If you are aware of any other sites that give you this in bold print please let me know.
Adaptec is a great example of one of those stocks. I highlight this stock because there is some serious action going on AFTER-HOURS with this stock. It looks to be up over 11% and will likely open tomorrow up at least this amount. NOW LISTEN UP...this is the second time that ADPT will give you short term players an opportunity to SELL. Read my post from Friday...ADPT was highlighted as a stock that we could have sold for a gain (around 10%) but you may not have done so...when it hit levels of 3.92 less than a month ago. And I noted as Jim Cramer has told us don't get greedy because Bears and Bulls make money...PIGS get slaughtered.
PRICE POINTS are designed to dollar cost average solid investments. So like one clever person pointed out that I had recommended ADPT at 4.05 at one point. That is a true statement, and even though you will notice that I did not actually purchase until months later (Search for ADPT and read my posts until you notice my disclosure on when I purchased), I have to honor the fact that I did post that price on my site. Now even though, I am one of the VERY FEW SITES to POST PRICE POINTS, you must continue to follow the way we invest here are URBANOMICS religiously. Back in June, I noticed and recommended ADPT at 4.05, however remeber these rules you must follow:
1. Buid a margin of safety (a steadfast Warren Buffen rule) to the inital recommendation price
2. Use multiple PRICE POINTS to accumulate a position in the stock:
- There will be a regular PRICE POINT (with a margin of safety built in)
- There will be a SUPERMAN PRICE POINT (a load up the bus, truck, trailer price)
3. Follow this post for stocks that you own:
If you read my later posts that include ADPT, you will notice 3.40 as another price point and in fact this price made my SUPERMAN that stock PRICE POINT. So at 3.40 you would have accumulated more stock, which reduces your original buy price down (dollar cost averaging). Further because this stock was rated SUPERMAN you must CRANK IT UP, BACK THE BUS UP!!!! That means accumulate as much of the stock as possible, up to twice your normal purchase amount.
4. Finally, review your stock periodically to ensure that the fundamentals have not changed with the stock. If they have soured, reduced your position. If the fundamentals are the same or improving, create new PRICE POINTS and continue to accumulate more stock, which reduces the average price at which you own the stock. Notice: In my post, on Friday October 26, I mentioned that ADPT's fundamentals are still on track and said to buy the stock again if it reaches under 3.40 and I gave a new SUPERMAN PRICE at 3.23 (the 52wk low). Well the stock was below 3.40 today.
So what does this mean in English...you would have probably done something like this is you followed ADPT on this site (using 1 shares as the standard buy):
Dollar Cost Average Example:
Buy 1 @ 4.05 (June) + Buy 2 @3.40 (Superman Price identified in Aug) + Buy 1 @ 3.40 (Oct 29 post price) = Dollar Cost Average Price of 3.56
I am telling you this because I believe that ADPT will be up big tomorrow which will give us the opportunity to SELL...for the short term traders. And some people may say how did you sell ADPT for a profit and this is how it happens. Need proof follow the stock Radisys (RSYS) and the posts that recommend multiple price points. That is why with Radisys we are up almost 30% in that stock.
BTW - Check out the recent news, was I right about my analysis back in June of this year about the Private Equity Firm, Steel Partners tightening the belt around ADPT, see the Article here: Adaptec in a War
If I tell the tool to buy a stock, say ADPT tomorrow, it will wait until the open...then because most websites (Yahoo, CNNfn,etc) are on a 20 minute delay it won't buy ADPT until 20 minutes after the market is open. This works well only if the stock isn't moving to the upside, or else the tool is tracking my recommendation at a higher price. I will work on fixing this problem...but until then pay attention to the PRICE POINTS that I list here at URBANOMICS. A quick refresher...PRICE POINTS give you an idea of when I think the stock is buy. If you are aware of any other sites that give you this in bold print please let me know.
Adaptec is a great example of one of those stocks. I highlight this stock because there is some serious action going on AFTER-HOURS with this stock. It looks to be up over 11% and will likely open tomorrow up at least this amount. NOW LISTEN UP...this is the second time that ADPT will give you short term players an opportunity to SELL. Read my post from Friday...ADPT was highlighted as a stock that we could have sold for a gain (around 10%) but you may not have done so...when it hit levels of 3.92 less than a month ago. And I noted as Jim Cramer has told us don't get greedy because Bears and Bulls make money...PIGS get slaughtered.
PRICE POINTS are designed to dollar cost average solid investments. So like one clever person pointed out that I had recommended ADPT at 4.05 at one point. That is a true statement, and even though you will notice that I did not actually purchase until months later (Search for ADPT and read my posts until you notice my disclosure on when I purchased), I have to honor the fact that I did post that price on my site. Now even though, I am one of the VERY FEW SITES to POST PRICE POINTS, you must continue to follow the way we invest here are URBANOMICS religiously. Back in June, I noticed and recommended ADPT at 4.05, however remeber these rules you must follow:
1. Buid a margin of safety (a steadfast Warren Buffen rule) to the inital recommendation price
2. Use multiple PRICE POINTS to accumulate a position in the stock:
- There will be a regular PRICE POINT (with a margin of safety built in)
- There will be a SUPERMAN PRICE POINT (a load up the bus, truck, trailer price)
3. Follow this post for stocks that you own:
If you read my later posts that include ADPT, you will notice 3.40 as another price point and in fact this price made my SUPERMAN that stock PRICE POINT. So at 3.40 you would have accumulated more stock, which reduces your original buy price down (dollar cost averaging). Further because this stock was rated SUPERMAN you must CRANK IT UP, BACK THE BUS UP!!!! That means accumulate as much of the stock as possible, up to twice your normal purchase amount.
4. Finally, review your stock periodically to ensure that the fundamentals have not changed with the stock. If they have soured, reduced your position. If the fundamentals are the same or improving, create new PRICE POINTS and continue to accumulate more stock, which reduces the average price at which you own the stock. Notice: In my post, on Friday October 26, I mentioned that ADPT's fundamentals are still on track and said to buy the stock again if it reaches under 3.40 and I gave a new SUPERMAN PRICE at 3.23 (the 52wk low). Well the stock was below 3.40 today.
So what does this mean in English...you would have probably done something like this is you followed ADPT on this site (using 1 shares as the standard buy):
Dollar Cost Average Example:
Buy 1 @ 4.05 (June) + Buy 2 @3.40 (Superman Price identified in Aug) + Buy 1 @ 3.40 (Oct 29 post price) = Dollar Cost Average Price of 3.56
I am telling you this because I believe that ADPT will be up big tomorrow which will give us the opportunity to SELL...for the short term traders. And some people may say how did you sell ADPT for a profit and this is how it happens. Need proof follow the stock Radisys (RSYS) and the posts that recommend multiple price points. That is why with Radisys we are up almost 30% in that stock.
BTW - Check out the recent news, was I right about my analysis back in June of this year about the Private Equity Firm, Steel Partners tightening the belt around ADPT, see the Article here: Adaptec in a War
Friday, October 26, 2007
It Must Be Butter...
It must be butter, cause we’re on roll! Now I have to give credit to my boy, Stuart Scott from ESPN who popularized this phrase. Another pioneer who is doing big things, appreciates hip hop, and changed the way we view our television hosts. Now hopefully I can do that for you through this site and on the subject matter of financials (mainly stocks).
~Urbanomics Update ~
Yes sir how did you like the last post where we analyzed Advent Software (ADVS). Just two months ago I told you that this stock, which was already moving in a positive direction, had more room to go. And you know through my investment style all we needed was what I have called a catalyst (Use the search tool to see how many times I talked about catalysts) Now in my short time of watching the market, I’ve noticed that a number of stocks move quickly up or down after a catalyst has been communicated to the masses. That catalyst for ADVS was apparent to a few of us in a number of different ways. Once we found our entry point into this stock, we paid attention to the information that ADVS was giving us through its press releases. I know your thinking, now how hard was that!!! Sorry no magical equation, we just simply paid attention to the fact that ADVS was disclosing through press releases that business was cranking through the roof. In one of their releases ADVS told us that they have developed or enhanced a new product and tons of their clients were signing up to use. Now again, I’m not a genius but this sounds like a solid indicator that their earnings are going to move higher over time, which means the stock price should follow...this was confirmed early through our daily ritual of looking for information on our stocks (See Zacks Newsletter disclosure). So the stock didn’t just take off over night…it was creeping here and there giving us a number of times to buy in at great prices. Remember, ADVS was recommended by URBANOMICS @ 39.25 (click here for: ADVS Recommendation ) and has been up between 15-25% since that recommendation.
But a well known secret that I believe savvy investors take advantage of it was I call the Water Cooler Investor effect. This happens when everybody and their mother get the inside tip from a website, the news, or a friend that a stock is going to do well. When this happens, a catalyst has triggered your Water Cooler Investors to jump on board and we will see huge trading volumes in those stocks. This is what happened to ADVS...it reported earnings (catalyst) confirming exactly what they had told us in press releases for the past few months and when this was discussed in their Earnings Release Conference Call, major news outlets spread the news to our Water Cooler Investors. What was the result, hordes of investors flocked to ADVS and raised the stock up roughly 19% in one day. This was the Leading Percentage Gainer of the Day yesterday and made us all very happy. I will now recommend that you sell ADVS at these levels because while they will continue to grow, the effect of our catalyst will die down in the weeks and months to come.
The perfect scenario is that you own alot of the stock, sell enough to gain your original investment back and some profits, and they play with the house's money. ADVS will be a great stock for years to come but unless you own a substantial amount we can put these gains to better use. I often get the call you show you more proof that our strategy works here at Urbanomics, well do a quick review of some of our recommendations:
ADVS - a return of over 30% in the last three months
MSFT - up 9% today as a result of a catalyst; up 30 since first recommended
RSYS - up 9% today b/c of catalyst; up roughly 5 - 30% depending on when you bought it
BBY - a large value stock that is up 10%
BNI - a large value play that is up almost 10% since first recommended
We also highlight the stock that could do better:
Rite Aid (RAD) - recommended @ 4.45, I still believe in Rite Aid and believe this should be bought at 3.95 or lower to build up our shares in this stock.
Avid Technology (AVID) - This stock was up and could have been sold for a profit; recommended @ 32 and now at 28; I believe that AVID has a longer road to recovery but this stock should be repurchased at levels that approach its 52wk low of 25.55
Adaptec (ADPT) - This one could have been sold for a profit; check the press releases b/c private equity is tightening the reigns around this company in trying to win a board seat. Superman price is 3.23, but nibble at building positions whenever the stock drops below 3.40
~Urbanomics Update ~
Yes sir how did you like the last post where we analyzed Advent Software (ADVS). Just two months ago I told you that this stock, which was already moving in a positive direction, had more room to go. And you know through my investment style all we needed was what I have called a catalyst (Use the search tool to see how many times I talked about catalysts) Now in my short time of watching the market, I’ve noticed that a number of stocks move quickly up or down after a catalyst has been communicated to the masses. That catalyst for ADVS was apparent to a few of us in a number of different ways. Once we found our entry point into this stock, we paid attention to the information that ADVS was giving us through its press releases. I know your thinking, now how hard was that!!! Sorry no magical equation, we just simply paid attention to the fact that ADVS was disclosing through press releases that business was cranking through the roof. In one of their releases ADVS told us that they have developed or enhanced a new product and tons of their clients were signing up to use. Now again, I’m not a genius but this sounds like a solid indicator that their earnings are going to move higher over time, which means the stock price should follow...this was confirmed early through our daily ritual of looking for information on our stocks (See Zacks Newsletter disclosure). So the stock didn’t just take off over night…it was creeping here and there giving us a number of times to buy in at great prices. Remember, ADVS was recommended by URBANOMICS @ 39.25 (click here for: ADVS Recommendation ) and has been up between 15-25% since that recommendation.
But a well known secret that I believe savvy investors take advantage of it was I call the Water Cooler Investor effect. This happens when everybody and their mother get the inside tip from a website, the news, or a friend that a stock is going to do well. When this happens, a catalyst has triggered your Water Cooler Investors to jump on board and we will see huge trading volumes in those stocks. This is what happened to ADVS...it reported earnings (catalyst) confirming exactly what they had told us in press releases for the past few months and when this was discussed in their Earnings Release Conference Call, major news outlets spread the news to our Water Cooler Investors. What was the result, hordes of investors flocked to ADVS and raised the stock up roughly 19% in one day. This was the Leading Percentage Gainer of the Day yesterday and made us all very happy. I will now recommend that you sell ADVS at these levels because while they will continue to grow, the effect of our catalyst will die down in the weeks and months to come.
The perfect scenario is that you own alot of the stock, sell enough to gain your original investment back and some profits, and they play with the house's money. ADVS will be a great stock for years to come but unless you own a substantial amount we can put these gains to better use. I often get the call you show you more proof that our strategy works here at Urbanomics, well do a quick review of some of our recommendations:
ADVS - a return of over 30% in the last three months
MSFT - up 9% today as a result of a catalyst; up 30 since first recommended
RSYS - up 9% today b/c of catalyst; up roughly 5 - 30% depending on when you bought it
BBY - a large value stock that is up 10%
BNI - a large value play that is up almost 10% since first recommended
We also highlight the stock that could do better:
Rite Aid (RAD) - recommended @ 4.45, I still believe in Rite Aid and believe this should be bought at 3.95 or lower to build up our shares in this stock.
Avid Technology (AVID) - This stock was up and could have been sold for a profit; recommended @ 32 and now at 28; I believe that AVID has a longer road to recovery but this stock should be repurchased at levels that approach its 52wk low of 25.55
Adaptec (ADPT) - This one could have been sold for a profit; check the press releases b/c private equity is tightening the reigns around this company in trying to win a board seat. Superman price is 3.23, but nibble at building positions whenever the stock drops below 3.40
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Welcome to the Good Life
I go for mine, I got to shine...Now throw you hands up in the sky! This is the third track off of Kanye West's "Graduation" album featuring T. Pain. Now this is the jam, but I am not sure what life Kanye was referring too. It's interesting I find myself not writing as much whenever there is a lot of turmoil in the market. This usually also reflects turmoil in the world, which then reflects itself through the market. Let's see, we have major financial companies, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, and Wachovia Bank all getting hammered by the weakness in the credit markets and the mainly through the bad investments that were made. Add to that the mortgage crisis in the US which has led to homeowners everywhere defaulting on their homes. All the companies in these areas, which were once living the "Good Life" are singing the blues and laying people off. Then there is that pesky thing called energy...it currently sits at levels that are unthinkable. Oil is reaching levels of roughly 90 dollars a barrel and predicted to continue to rise. Now maybe I am too young to really know what I'm talking about but there has been the "R" word thrown out by some analysts and that would be RECESSION and from what I am seeing in the markets I don't think that some of the whispers are too far off.
I am no mathematician but poor financial markets + bad consumer debt + rising foreclosures + declining property values + layoffs = something is wrong (possibly RECESSION). I am not comfortable with the volatility in the market because as companies are beating earnings or being upgraded they go up and then immediately the market brings them right back down due to all the negative news. Now Warren Buffet wouldn't care because he's in it for the long haul (and he's rich), so for the rest of us that were out there speculating its time to take gains were it makes sense and build on our recession proof stocks...like dividend stocks. I like buying stocks that make products that we continue to buy even when times get tough and I still like technology. You'll appreciate the following updates:
Advent Software (ADVS) - reported positive earnings today; (technology)
Radisys (RSYS) - upgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald, price target raised from 11 to 18 (technology)
Emcore - coverage initated with BUY by Roth Capital (technology)
Burlington Northern (BNI) - reported positive earning (transportation)
They have a few things in common being technology plays and one defensive plays. I think this will be the direction to go for awhile.
I am no mathematician but poor financial markets + bad consumer debt + rising foreclosures + declining property values + layoffs = something is wrong (possibly RECESSION). I am not comfortable with the volatility in the market because as companies are beating earnings or being upgraded they go up and then immediately the market brings them right back down due to all the negative news. Now Warren Buffet wouldn't care because he's in it for the long haul (and he's rich), so for the rest of us that were out there speculating its time to take gains were it makes sense and build on our recession proof stocks...like dividend stocks. I like buying stocks that make products that we continue to buy even when times get tough and I still like technology. You'll appreciate the following updates:
Advent Software (ADVS) - reported positive earnings today; (technology)
Radisys (RSYS) - upgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald, price target raised from 11 to 18 (technology)
Emcore - coverage initated with BUY by Roth Capital (technology)
Burlington Northern (BNI) - reported positive earning (transportation)
They have a few things in common being technology plays and one defensive plays. I think this will be the direction to go for awhile.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Two New Picks
Enjoy these as we begin tracking them on our new tool.
AEPI BUY @ $39.8
This stock hit its 52 wk lows in Aug and has slowly bounced back. The historical price has not been very volatile and there was some downward pressure after AEPI reported a drop in third quarter earnings. Positive momentum action should drive this small cap stock higher from its lows.
RAD BUY @ 4.45
Rite Aid continues to have a tough time working in its acquisition of the Brooks and Eckerd chains. But this retail pharmacy giant will bounce off of its lows. Acquisition has been the name of the game with this sector just ask CVS with their purchase of Caremark. Everyone is trying to grow to keep pace with Walgreens. So buy RAD with support levels at its 52 wk low on the year and ride through the growing pains of their acquisitions to higher gains.
AEPI BUY @ $39.8
This stock hit its 52 wk lows in Aug and has slowly bounced back. The historical price has not been very volatile and there was some downward pressure after AEPI reported a drop in third quarter earnings. Positive momentum action should drive this small cap stock higher from its lows.
RAD BUY @ 4.45
Rite Aid continues to have a tough time working in its acquisition of the Brooks and Eckerd chains. But this retail pharmacy giant will bounce off of its lows. Acquisition has been the name of the game with this sector just ask CVS with their purchase of Caremark. Everyone is trying to grow to keep pace with Walgreens. So buy RAD with support levels at its 52 wk low on the year and ride through the growing pains of their acquisitions to higher gains.
Sunday, October 07, 2007
URB Update - NAVTEQ, Advent Software, Emcore
Here is a quick weekend update, as I do a periodic review of some our stocks in the news. I like to follow our picks through major newspapers, websites, and analyst reviews. The following stocks were commented on in the last two weeks or have major updates that require our attention. The stocks I will highlight are Emcore (up 10% in two days), Navteq (takeover target), and Advent Software (up roughly 20% in less than two months)
I will start with the newest recommendation, Emcore (EMKR):
This is a love/hate relationship with this momentum stock. As you recall we got this stock at our price point just a week ago. And luckily, we keep an hawkish eye on our new picks, because HIGH risk momentum stocks are labeled that way for a reason. This stock has experience great gains in roughly two day, but on Friday we got some shocking news, at the worst time. Late Friday, it was released that EMKR received an noncompliance notice from the NASDAQ...this is bad news...very bad. So now we must watch this stock closely on Monday...first off, follow my lead and remove and cancel any price points that were initially set, yes including our Superman price. Next, if you don't have the time to follow this stock on Monday, place a Stop Loss to sell this stock at 9.75. Why this price, because it appears that this stock is being impacted by the bad news. We were up to the 10.70 range on Friday, but when the news was released after the market closed...the stock appears to have declined in aftermarket hours. The lowest aftermarket price disclosed on Yahoo Finance was 9.85. If the back news is picked up by the rest of the investors out there like us, we will see further declines. If we set a Stop Loss of 9.75 it will automatically sell the investment at that price. And yes, we will walk away from the investment and wait for the dust to settle. I would like to revisit this stock but we need to wait until EMKR is compliant without a doubt with the NASDAQ. I am unsure how this will impact their scheduled earnings announcement.
Here is an article from Marketwatch: EMKR said late Friday that it received a letter from Nasdaq on Oct. 2 stating that the company is not in compliance with the exchange's listing requirements, and that its stock is subject to delisting. The provider of compound semiconductor-based products said the notice was expected and was due to its inability to hold an annual shareholders' meeting by Sept. 30. Emcore plans to submit a letter to request an extension to regain compliance with Nasdaq's requirements.
Navteq (NVT):
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
NAVTEQ Corporation (NVT) has done a great job navigating for profits. Surging demand for maps in portable devices and some easier-than-expected expenses are contributing to outsized earnings gains. The company just reported a 72% profit gain and raised full-year guidance. Over the past 60 days, this year's estimates have jumped 19 cents to $1.52 per share. The past two quarters have averaged a 57% positive surprise. Analysts are projecting 20.4% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, NVT was listed as their aggressive growth pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)
Advent Software:
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
Advent Software, Inc. (ADVS) is enjoying phenomenal growth and its chart reflects it. The stock has been on a rocket ride since late July, after posting a 350% positive earnings surprise. Over the past 90 days, this year's earnings estimates have soared 12 cents to 33 cents per share. Analysts are projecting 27.8% earnings growth in 2008 and 21.7% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, ADVS was listed as their momentum pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)
Lessons Learned, this means we should have SOLD EMKR when you get up 10% in one day, we were dead on with NVT, and we will be holding onto ADVS because were were exactly right with this momentum pick. As Jim Cramer often reminds us Bears make money (ppl who make money when the market goes down), Bulls make money (ppl who make money when the market goes up), and Pigs get slaughtered. We were pigish on EMKR and we've learned.
I will start with the newest recommendation, Emcore (EMKR):
This is a love/hate relationship with this momentum stock. As you recall we got this stock at our price point just a week ago. And luckily, we keep an hawkish eye on our new picks, because HIGH risk momentum stocks are labeled that way for a reason. This stock has experience great gains in roughly two day, but on Friday we got some shocking news, at the worst time. Late Friday, it was released that EMKR received an noncompliance notice from the NASDAQ...this is bad news...very bad. So now we must watch this stock closely on Monday...first off, follow my lead and remove and cancel any price points that were initially set, yes including our Superman price. Next, if you don't have the time to follow this stock on Monday, place a Stop Loss to sell this stock at 9.75. Why this price, because it appears that this stock is being impacted by the bad news. We were up to the 10.70 range on Friday, but when the news was released after the market closed...the stock appears to have declined in aftermarket hours. The lowest aftermarket price disclosed on Yahoo Finance was 9.85. If the back news is picked up by the rest of the investors out there like us, we will see further declines. If we set a Stop Loss of 9.75 it will automatically sell the investment at that price. And yes, we will walk away from the investment and wait for the dust to settle. I would like to revisit this stock but we need to wait until EMKR is compliant without a doubt with the NASDAQ. I am unsure how this will impact their scheduled earnings announcement.
Here is an article from Marketwatch: EMKR said late Friday that it received a letter from Nasdaq on Oct. 2 stating that the company is not in compliance with the exchange's listing requirements, and that its stock is subject to delisting. The provider of compound semiconductor-based products said the notice was expected and was due to its inability to hold an annual shareholders' meeting by Sept. 30. Emcore plans to submit a letter to request an extension to regain compliance with Nasdaq's requirements.
Navteq (NVT):
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
NAVTEQ Corporation (NVT) has done a great job navigating for profits. Surging demand for maps in portable devices and some easier-than-expected expenses are contributing to outsized earnings gains. The company just reported a 72% profit gain and raised full-year guidance. Over the past 60 days, this year's estimates have jumped 19 cents to $1.52 per share. The past two quarters have averaged a 57% positive surprise. Analysts are projecting 20.4% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, NVT was listed as their aggressive growth pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)
Advent Software:
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
Advent Software, Inc. (ADVS) is enjoying phenomenal growth and its chart reflects it. The stock has been on a rocket ride since late July, after posting a 350% positive earnings surprise. Over the past 90 days, this year's earnings estimates have soared 12 cents to 33 cents per share. Analysts are projecting 27.8% earnings growth in 2008 and 21.7% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, ADVS was listed as their momentum pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)
Lessons Learned, this means we should have SOLD EMKR when you get up 10% in one day, we were dead on with NVT, and we will be holding onto ADVS because were were exactly right with this momentum pick. As Jim Cramer often reminds us Bears make money (ppl who make money when the market goes down), Bulls make money (ppl who make money when the market goes up), and Pigs get slaughtered. We were pigish on EMKR and we've learned.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
URB Platinum Picks ~ October '07
I am back with another update for October. We have had a great year so far and the plan is to continue the run into the end of the year. Urbanomics has enhanced the site to allow for you to track my picks as they are made (thanks to socialpicks). Every now and then I will detail ways for you to identify stocks that work for you...follow the Urbanomic Rules. I will place limit orders in for all of these stocks at the specified prices below. I will also disclose at the end of the post what stocks I was able to buy.
URBANOMICS RULE 1: Find and Stick with a strategy
I have run my most recent screen and I've included my latest picks below with background detail. Screens can vary depending on the investor's risk tolerance and expected return and can focus on Price to Earnings Ratio, Analysts Upgrades, Chart Analysis, Earnings Per Share (EPS) Revisions, and Institutional Ownership. Pick a strategy that works for you, backtest it to see how effective it would be, and stay consistent.
URB October Platinum Picks (In honor of Kanye West and 50 Cent)
I have multiple price points which I will explain in later Urbanomics RULES, but you will see a normal price point, and a SUPERMAN price point. Search the site for a better understanding of the Superman concept.
EMKR BUY @ 10.04
- Emcore is a semiconductor company that has run into a little bit of trouble. Accounting for pesky stock option grants has long been despised in the technology world. Well apparently EMKR didn't get the memo that is was a regulatory mandate to comply with. The great news is EMKR looks to be compliant with the SEC and the NASDAQ in October '07. Shares of Emcore have been on a tear in the last two weeks. It was up 15.8 percent for the week of Sept 21. During that week, EMKR was upgraded by an analyst to "Market Perform". Finally, EMKR is set to report earnings which could be a major catalyst for upward momentum. I will reiterate there is a 'Flight To Technology' within the market and their products support industries that are in high demand (solar panels, wireless, fiber optics). Look to exit is momentum slows down after the earnings release.
Superman Price: EMKR BUY @ 9.59
EMAG BUY @ 8.00
Emageon Inc has recently had an analyst initiate coverage with a "market outperform" rating. The target price is set to $11. EMAG is gaining market share and new product launches should provide more revenue down the road. A recent acquisition is increasing the number of clients and they have seen support levels above the stock's 52 week low. This stock hit a low of 8.09 today, so we're getting close.
Superman Price: EMAG BUY @ 7.42 (52wk low)
TRMS BUY @ 6.95
Trimeris Inc is a company with a good revenue stream, but has been hit hard by poor management. The stock has been falling recently due to both TRMS and Roche pulling the plug on a joint product. With Wall Street believing this company is poorly run, look for what I love to call is a catalyst such as management being pushed out or an outright sale. With a dramatic drop in stock price and market cap...Roche could be a likely buyer. With bad news out there, wait for more declines until we get to our price level. You can take a small bite at 7.11 or lower.
LAMR Buy @ 48.38
Lamar Advertising has been on my watch for awhile and has been mentioned in other posts. I was slow to react to this stock and I've paid the price. The price appreciation has been moving rapidly and I definitely have missed the intial momentum opportunity. LAMR which provides outdoor advertising space, is moving up as an analyst said is raising his forecast due to the deployment of 350 digital billboards next year. That's all we need is more distractions on the road. But guess what...Federal Highway Administration is approving the installation of digital billboards along roadways. This stock is getting away from me so, their can be small blocks bought around 49 and 50.
Superman Price: LAMR BUY @ 47.36 (Good luck I but limit buys in but I don't have my hopes up)
47.36
Disclosure: I bought EMKR today @ 10.04 on 10/4/07. This post was started on 10/02 but completed on 10/04.
URBANOMICS RULE 1: Find and Stick with a strategy
I have run my most recent screen and I've included my latest picks below with background detail. Screens can vary depending on the investor's risk tolerance and expected return and can focus on Price to Earnings Ratio, Analysts Upgrades, Chart Analysis, Earnings Per Share (EPS) Revisions, and Institutional Ownership. Pick a strategy that works for you, backtest it to see how effective it would be, and stay consistent.
URB October Platinum Picks (In honor of Kanye West and 50 Cent)
I have multiple price points which I will explain in later Urbanomics RULES, but you will see a normal price point, and a SUPERMAN price point. Search the site for a better understanding of the Superman concept.
EMKR BUY @ 10.04
- Emcore is a semiconductor company that has run into a little bit of trouble. Accounting for pesky stock option grants has long been despised in the technology world. Well apparently EMKR didn't get the memo that is was a regulatory mandate to comply with. The great news is EMKR looks to be compliant with the SEC and the NASDAQ in October '07. Shares of Emcore have been on a tear in the last two weeks. It was up 15.8 percent for the week of Sept 21. During that week, EMKR was upgraded by an analyst to "Market Perform". Finally, EMKR is set to report earnings which could be a major catalyst for upward momentum. I will reiterate there is a 'Flight To Technology' within the market and their products support industries that are in high demand (solar panels, wireless, fiber optics). Look to exit is momentum slows down after the earnings release.
Superman Price: EMKR BUY @ 9.59
EMAG BUY @ 8.00
Emageon Inc has recently had an analyst initiate coverage with a "market outperform" rating. The target price is set to $11. EMAG is gaining market share and new product launches should provide more revenue down the road. A recent acquisition is increasing the number of clients and they have seen support levels above the stock's 52 week low. This stock hit a low of 8.09 today, so we're getting close.
Superman Price: EMAG BUY @ 7.42 (52wk low)
TRMS BUY @ 6.95
Trimeris Inc is a company with a good revenue stream, but has been hit hard by poor management. The stock has been falling recently due to both TRMS and Roche pulling the plug on a joint product. With Wall Street believing this company is poorly run, look for what I love to call is a catalyst such as management being pushed out or an outright sale. With a dramatic drop in stock price and market cap...Roche could be a likely buyer. With bad news out there, wait for more declines until we get to our price level. You can take a small bite at 7.11 or lower.
LAMR Buy @ 48.38
Lamar Advertising has been on my watch for awhile and has been mentioned in other posts. I was slow to react to this stock and I've paid the price. The price appreciation has been moving rapidly and I definitely have missed the intial momentum opportunity. LAMR which provides outdoor advertising space, is moving up as an analyst said is raising his forecast due to the deployment of 350 digital billboards next year. That's all we need is more distractions on the road. But guess what...Federal Highway Administration is approving the installation of digital billboards along roadways. This stock is getting away from me so, their can be small blocks bought around 49 and 50.
Superman Price: LAMR BUY @ 47.36 (Good luck I but limit buys in but I don't have my hopes up)
47.36
Disclosure: I bought EMKR today @ 10.04 on 10/4/07. This post was started on 10/02 but completed on 10/04.
Monday, October 01, 2007
Class Is In Session...
and when I blog you listen, readers please don't doubt the need for you to pay attention. Now that wasn't a complete freestyle, because I took a few words from one of my favorite artists. But I do want you to take a few words from the Urbanomics "Throwback Movie of The Day". It is the one and only movie "Wall Street" starring Charlie Sheen and Michael Douglas. The line is from a high powered, ruthless, and greedy investment broker Mr. Gordon Gekko. And it goes a little something like this:
"I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it is ever fought."
And even though Gordon Gekko is a cunning individual, he has one thing correct, I don't throw darts either...although there is no such thing as sure bets, we must put in work to win the battle before its fought. And that's what I am doing here for you folks. The battle is won with hard work and doing things you love. Now some people keep count of your victories, others will say lucky guess, and others may call you crazy but you gotta believe. So if you read the post I created just yesterday you may say a few of these things in disbelief. Now I am not ruthless like Gordon Gekko in "Wall Street" because he cheated to get ahead. He used information that wasn't accessible to the public and benefitted from trading the stock. Yes ladies and gentlemen, ala Martha Stewart he was participating in 'Insider Trading'.
The difference is I gave you the reasoning behind why I believed in GPS stocks yesterday. I gave you the basic principles that I learned from Peter Lynch so that you can follow along with me. Invest in what you know...right in front of you're eyes.
What unfolded right before our eyes was kinda crazy, not only were we on the money but Nokia must have been listing to what we were saying...because they have arranged to acquire Navteq in an 8.1 billion dollar deal today. See my post from yesterday. The following release was taken from Navteq website:
Nokia to acquire NAVTEQ
The combined entity would create a leading global player in the fast growing location based services marketNAVTEQ to support existing customers as before .
October 1, 2007 -- Nokia and NAVTEQ today announced a definitive agreement for Nokia to acquire NAVTEQ. Under the terms of the agreement, Nokia will pay $78 in cash for each share of NAVTEQ including outstanding options for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $8.1 billion (€5.7 billion), or approximately $7.7 billion (€5.4 billion) net of NAVTEQ existing cash balance. The acquisition has been approved by the board of directors of each company and is subject to customary closing conditions including regulatory approvals and NAVTEQ shareholders’ approval.
The navigation area is a fast growing business, and with location-based services expanding rapidly into mobile communications devices, the industry is poised for even further growth. NAVTEQ brings a number of key assets to Nokia: a great team with best-in-world maps and navigation industry expertise, a strong customer base and an industry-leading map data and technology platform with the broadest geographical coverage.
October 1, 2007 -- Nokia and NAVTEQ today announced a definitive agreement for Nokia to acquire NAVTEQ. Under the terms of the agreement, Nokia will pay $78 in cash for each share of NAVTEQ including outstanding options for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $8.1 billion (€5.7 billion), or approximately $7.7 billion (€5.4 billion) net of NAVTEQ existing cash balance. The acquisition has been approved by the board of directors of each company and is subject to customary closing conditions including regulatory approvals and NAVTEQ shareholders’ approval.
The navigation area is a fast growing business, and with location-based services expanding rapidly into mobile communications devices, the industry is poised for even further growth. NAVTEQ brings a number of key assets to Nokia: a great team with best-in-world maps and navigation industry expertise, a strong customer base and an industry-leading map data and technology platform with the broadest geographical coverage.
I will leave you with another memorable quote from "Wall Street":
The richest one percent of this country owns half our country's wealth, five trillion dollars. One third of that comes from hard work, two thirds comes from inheritance, interest on interest accumulating to widows and idiot sons and what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It's bullshit. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth. I create nothing. I own. We make the rules, pal. The news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the price per paper clip. We pick that rabbit out of the hat while everybody sits out there wondering how the hell we did it. Now you're not naive enough to think we're living in a democracy, are you buddy? It's the free market. And you're a part of it. You've got that killer instinct. Stick around pal, I've still got a lot to teach you.
Let's all own and make the rules, the right way ~URBANOMICS
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