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Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Why Sports Clubs are the New 'it' Investment

I'm not sure when I first invested in Manchester United but if you look back at my blog history it's most likely around 2016. It was a simple post about investing in an election year and go figure a Clinton and a Trump were running against each other. I may not have shared at the time, but I was investing alongside a good friend of mine from my MANSA MUSA network, billionaire Ron Baron (cue Lil Weezy - A Billi) Baron was yapping away in a CNBC interview and he laid out a very compelling thesis of the investment. I like simple and I like math and it was BOTH.

But let's rewind for a bit. For those of you that don't know what sport I'm talking about, I'm talking about original football. What we here in America call soccer but the world knows as the sport of football. Possibly where a single last name can be uttered and the ENTIRE world knows exactly who you are talking about: Pele, Lionel Messi, Diego Maradona, Critiano Ronaldo, Zinedine Zidane, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Andres Iniesta, Didier Drogba, Thierry Henry and the list goes on and on.

I don't remember the full talking points but it went something like this:

- The Los Angeles Dodgers at the time were worth something like $2 Billion dollars and we're talking baseball

- Machester United was worth less than that 

- The viewership for each game rivals the equivalent of a US Football Superbowl event

- Machester United is a top four club in the English Premier League so this was like getting shares in the Chicago Bulls (Jordan Years), Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, or Golden State Warriors (Curry Years) on discount! 

- In 2015/2016, he foresaw what we are experiencing today. The decline of cable means the Live Sports is a game changer for television viewership. 

Here were some of my previous posts:

2016 Post on Manchester United


2019 Post - Finding-value-in-Media-and-Sports-Stocks


In 2016, I was snapping up sharing at around $13/14 dollars a share. And the rumors continue to circulate that the Glazer family may sell this franchise and the sharks are lining up to buy. At over a mind boggling 7 Billion pounds, there is word a deal may be in sight. If I told you to be patient and wait a few years and your money would double --- could you do it? If I told you to avoid the flash and do the math --- would you really do it?

I purchase or hookup of this stock could enter it into my MansMusa Hall of Fame. Thanks to my guy Ron Baron for the simple advice and in this particular case a reminder of why sometimes we hunt in packs.

#MansaMusaHOF   - designates this stock pick was retired in my Hall of Fame
#ABilliSquad -  Billionaire investors from the Wall Street community that make up my squad. Ya Dig
#HuntinPacks - designates investments I made alongside someone in my network

#MansaMusaMentality


Thursday, August 10, 2023

Savage over AVID Technology (NASDAQ: AVID) | IT Goes Down in the DM [Versace, Kors, Jimmy Choo]


So, I typed a text to a girl I used to see
Sayin that I chose this cutie pie with whom I wanna be
And I apologize if this message gets you down
Then I CC'd every girl that I'd see see round town and
I hate to see y'all frown but I'd rather see her smiling
Wetness all around me, true, but I'm no island
Peninsula maybe, makes no sense I know, crazy
Give up all this pussy cat thats in my lap no lookin back

Song: Int'l Players Anthem (I Choose You)

Artist: UGK featuring Outkast
Produced by DJ Paul and Juicy J

SAVAGE over AVID Technology (Nasdaq: AVID)

Avid (NASDAQ: AVID), just got Chose. Like Beyonce said 'Put a Ring On It" and AVID announced that it will be acquired or hook up with a company linked to STG in an all-cash deal.  Avid shareholders will receive $27.05 in cash and this makes one of the quickest wins I've ever had investing in stocks. Not the quickest though. I'll post my trades but I have to get back to it.

See My Post on AVID Technology


It Goes Down in the DM --- Capri Holdings (NYSE: CPRI)

I believe in love and positive vibes, energy, and frequencies. I still hold a few shares of Tapestry Inc., which most of us know as the brand Coach. Tapestry also own Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman. Am I going high fashion? No, it doesn't bring me much satisfaction in life but for many is sells music and is aspirational. So, its no surprise that Tapestry slid into the DMs of Capri Holdings who owns high fashion names like Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo. Cue the Migos -- Versace Versace Versace! Capri just got Chose and clearly love is in the air and they will will be hooking up at roughly $57 a share.

I have been out of the markets for over a year and I'm finally seeing an atmosphere I likely likely. I still think we are headed for turbulent waters in the stock market. So I like to look for stocks that like to hook up as this presents opportunities that are lower on my risk scale. I also am starting to see stocks getting hammered after what I believe is a fake run up recently, likely due to the AI craze. Robolox was down 20% + after earnings, Magnite was falling, Beyond Meat was down big, and the cyber stocks have "Put it On Da Floor" recently. You have to be very very careful in this environment so you're not catching a falling knife? WTF does that even mean, I don't really know but in regular people speak you don't to invest in someone or in the case of stocks something that will keep letting you down (cue a Mary J. Blige heartbreak song).

#IGottheHookUp #AvidTechnology #CapriHoldings #ItGoesDownInTheDM 

Saturday, August 05, 2023

Liquor and Leverage? -- How A Famous Investor Lost $17 Billion So Far This Year

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans


How to Open My First Brokerage Account

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LIQUOR AND LEVERAGE

“I’ve seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage – leverage being borrowed money. You really don’t need leverage in this world much. If you’re smart, you’re going to make a lot of money without borrowing.” — Warren Buffett

I wanted to share a brief article on Carl Icahn and how he's lost $17 Billion, yes with a "B" dollar in roughly 3 months. For a brief backdrop, you need to understand the players:

Carl Icahn is an investor who is known as a Corporate Raider. I'm not sure if that term is completely fair because there is a common term used in the investment community which is used to describe the INTENT of investment firms who accumulate a large amount of shares in a company. You must formally file a document that indicates if you plan to be a "PASSIVE" investor or an "ACTIVITST " investor. Icahn is the typically an activist investor. I guess activist investors also have an offshoot branch of their party called Corporate Raiders. Change can be positive and of course it can be negative. The Corporate Raider typically forces change in a company that some may see as a negative force. An example may be buying up large shares in a company, then firing a majority of the staff to quickly reap the profits and then leaving. The character most often associated with this label is Gordon Gekko from my favorite movie Wall Street. 

I wanted to share an article and a link on the negative impacts of leverage. That means borrowing money to invest in something. Over the years, I written about the perils of borrowing money. It can be a very dangerous tool to use. But it is so commonplace we forget that many of us use credit cards, mortgages, payday loans, buy now pay later schemes to fund our lifestyles. I call these items instant gratification. I believe there are rules to leverage and for example, I use mortgages to purchase my homes/investment properties. But I am also aware of my sources of income that would be used to buy said properties and homes. If those sources dried up...I'm sorry to say it's time to sell or give that home back to the bank. I would do it in a heartbeat. As for other types of credit or leverage, I stay clear of them. Here are a few examples:

Credit Cards - Yes, I use them, but I pay the balance in full each month. A future post on why then I even use credit cards at all coming soon.

Borrowing from Friends - I don't do it because it could end a great friendship.

Borrowing Against a Home - I don't do it because now, if I took out a loan against my home, now I've leverage my home as collateral. This is a possible way to lose my home and I definitely wouldn't do this against my primary home.

Now these are just my personal thoughts and yes, they are strict, but like Buffett I'm just not a fan of leverage and for the past five years liquor either (except Tequila or Cognac on special occasions).

It turns out Icahn has been using leverage as he runs his investment firm as a public company trading on the US stock exchange. Please read the first article which exposes his leverage:

1) Hindenburg Research Work on Carl Icahn's Company: Hindenburg Research - ICAHN

Key Takeaways that risks of Debt, Leverage, and Conflicts of Interest:

a) Debt: Hindenburg alleged that Icahn's firm has sell new shares (called units) to distribute new dividend payouts, which they called an unsustainable economic structure. Why might this be unsustainable?? Well Icahn's firm has not performed well dating back to 2014, losing 53% during this time. 
    Don't Believe me Just Watch: Since 2014 Icahn lost $4.9 billion in free cash flow BUT the firm continued to pay cash dividends of almost $1.5 billion during this period. And these types of results or returns have continued since then. 
    Urbanomics Lesson: Do get into too deep to debt, it only leads to hard times. Balance in life and     balance in your finances

b) Stop Playing Game 'Hoe': Hindenburg then noted that Icahn's portfolio valuations are inflated. This might be considered financial shenanigans and using these valuations to pay dividends or get other loans could come back to haunt you. 

    Don't Believe me Just Watch: Hindenburg found a few situations where Icahn's firm valued companies they invested in on their books MORE than than the entire worth of the company itself. 

  Urbanomics Lesson: Don't fake the funk. Stop claiming your car is worth $XX when you've had it for     5 years. It loses value, you can't sell it for what you bought it (usually). Next using these false                 valuations to get more leverage could squeeze you.

a) Leverage: Hindenburg also alleged that Icahn's firm obtained credit debt between the years 2017 and 2021. Debt was super cheap during this time. Well like interest only loans, these debs will need to be refinanced and now rates are much higher. Nothing is wrong with refinancing again if you use my motto of knowing your sources of income. But it was alleged that Icahn is using his own shares in the company as collateral to obtain loans.

    Don't Believe me Just Watch: 60% of his Icahn's shared are being used to support the loans. This type of leverage is a risky because if the price of the stock declines, the banks can ask for him to fork over those shares AND even come up with more money. I assume the banks would want to sell those shares right away to recoup their loan investments. Icahn has not disclosed his collateral agreements used for these loans and quite SIMPLY that could be risky for people owning the stick.
    Urbanomics Lesson: While Icahn may understand the risk, using leverage and not knowing the     details could bring pain to investors in this stock.

Since this article came out in MAY, the stock in Icahn's firm as plummeted and he personally has lost over $17 Billion dollars. Don't cry for him as he is still worth over $7 Billion, but its a great case study on how to be careful and why I'm not a fan of debt and leverage.

#liquorandleverage 

Friday, August 04, 2023

IT GOES DOWN IN THE DM - Avid Technology (NASDAQ:AVID)

 

IT GOES DOWN IN THE DM - Avid Technology (NASDAQ:AVID) 


I usually hate that technology is always watching or should I say listening to what you're doing. In a recent episode of "Billions", they were covering the subject of wire taps. There were strict rules of what you could listen to and where you could listen. The bedroom was off limits and also if a lawyer was present ---listening is a no-no. 

Things that may you go hmmm --- we have strict rules for wiretaps but not for the proliferation of devices listening to people all day in their homes and in their bedrooms.

But it's Friday, I'm not gonna be too cranky because there is the occasional positive use case of computers watching our every move. OCCASIONALLY, they add something to my feed that I really find of use. That happened last night, I believe. In my feed was Reuters story about it reminded me that "Investors never sleep". So, as I was in bed, I took screenshots of the article so I could evaluate trades the next morning. I hope you're listening -- the Early Bird Gets the Worm.

Here were some of those details:

2 companies, Symphony Technology Group & Francisco Partners, just jumped in the Direct Messages (DMs) of and Avid Technology (NASDAQ:AVID). You chose the analogy but I liken it to:

- 2 sports teams looking to sign a player on the market

- 2 people looking to date the same person

- 2 people haggling over the same car

What this means is "usually" the price is going to go up until someone walks away. Time for me to quote Fat Joe:

#yesterdayspriceisnottodaysprice

This is one way I keep investing, simple straightforward and fun. Now the harder part is at what price point and how do you setup the trade? The funny thing is MANY years ago I traded Avid but I don't think it was profitable, I'll need to go back and read my own blog this weekend to see. Peace out its Friday!

QUOTE PRICE:



Tuesday, August 01, 2023

The Art of Negotiation - Know Your Worth | Leverage | Optionality

   

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans


How to Open My First Brokerage Account

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THE ART OF NEGOTIATION

Hello and happy Tuesday. It's cliche but it's August and we all wonder where has the time gone. So I want to drop a little bit of knowledge in how I negotiate deals. As of this writing, my technology security company has signed a number of contractual deals with corporate entities in the past few years. We provide security solutions that help them better secure their organizations. The hardest part is getting your foot in the door and speaking to new clients but right after that the most difficult thing is negotiating terms of a deal. I find it very odd that this is not something that is taught in schools and is something I advocate for people that work and train with me. If you look back at my blogging history, I've been a HUGE advocate for college and even high school athletes to get paid. You could probably go back 10 or 15 years ago and see my posts on this subject. I was so surprised when I would communicate my thoughts on this subject how many people, mainly men, across different demographics argued that players should not be paid. 

I used this interaction as a case study in systemic systems and unfortunately this one includes race when it came to playing college athletes. Remember, I spoke to young, old, and men of different races and a majority of the time they stated college players don't deserve to get paid -- they often defaulted the school is paying for their education. The reason why I called this practice systemic is because even though most of these discussions resulted in the person across from me agreeing with my evidence, they found it easy to fall back to what is status quo.

When I consult for my clients, I follow a few simple mantras. You can't hit what you can't see (Visibility). You can't solve a problem you can't quantify (Measure). You can't solve a problem you if you don't take action (Solve).  My opps (as the young folks say today) didn't stop to find contextual data of the argument I was making. Here was my point:

Visibility: There was not a proliferation of data involved when my opps would fall back to their status quo position. They didn't often state that a majority of the players in college football and basketball are African American. 

Measure: They didn't measure or take into consideration the rate at which these players 'make it to the pros' or go on to play at a professional level to earn a living. According to the National Collegiate Athletic Association: 1 in 2,451 men's high school basketball players will be drafted by a National Basketball Assocation team. 

They didn't measure the dramatic increase in youth leagues, parents spending insane amounts of money for these leagues, or the impact this drive has on families. What's the cost of obsessed parents who lose track of time spent, neglect to their spouse and other kids, or even missed school.

Solve: I don't claim to have all the answers but if we want to teach families and kids true economics we can start with sports:  

1. Many kids play sports for the love of the game. So, consider youth sports a sunk cost: Set a budget and define up front what you'll spend and how much time kids should dedicate to sports. There is always a cost but start with the basics, what's wrong with kids in a neighborhood league playing each other every week just for the fun of it. The business of travel sports and super youth complexes is just that a BUSINESS.

2. I often quote Shark Tank "If after a few years, you're not making money from it -- it's just a hobby". Well said Mr. Wonderful! Sports should be a hobby until someone is profiting from you. When they begin profiting from you pay you need a piece of that pie. Nothing is more American, Capitalistic, or dare I say fair. 

3. My go to silencer of my opps was a simple comparison to other sports. I knew for a fact that youth can turn pro and be paid as professionals in Tennis, Golf, Baseball, and other sports that were traditionally dominated by white players. I found it strange that my opps discarded this fact and suddenly were allergic to sports where African American youth dominated in participation. 

If the Fab 5 (Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, and company) could literally turn around the University of Michigan's basketball program and profit to the tune of billions of dollars, should they NOT have benefitted in those gains? Should college football not compensate a star player that packed stands for years and then suddenly suffers a tragic injury? Should college sports profit from these amateur players knowing that the percentages are miniscule that most won't make it to the professional levels? Should a player not be able to market himself, if not is he "property" and who owns him?


Let's fast forward and it's beautiful to see athletes in college getting paid via their Name, Image, and Likeness or often called NIL deals. Last time I checked these students are not property owned by someone. I passionately watch Overtime Elite (OTE) which is a league that pays high school, yes I said high school players $100K a year to play in it's league. The chance to earn from your skill is the LEVERAGE you need to take advantage in determining your WORTH. You can't just show up you must provide skills someone values. Clearly the audiences VALUE these players and a lot of money is being made. Finally, I respectfully remind the players to have OPTIONALITY. Similar to what I learned in sports applies to like -- you must be a triple threat! Because your athletic skills will diminish and you must always remember what THEY, your opps think of you. 

I close with this caption from the disheartening treatment of Jonathan Taylor, the star running back of the Indianapolis Colts. Look closely at what the owner Jim Irsay says. Take into account, that Jonathan Taylor is the BEST player on this team. If you don't have optionality in LIFE, you will be simply looked at as property and stuck to unfavorable terms you may have to accept. I have the most euphoric feeling when I negotiate terms for myself and consultants -- "At the end of the day, I can walk away from the table and say no thanks". I also strangely find is less disruptive when I accept less than favorable terms in a deal -- "I signed that deal and if I don't like it I can terminate the deal (based on the terms I agreed upon).

I don't have any beef with what Jim Irsay is saying because it's just business. But I do know my opps and my job is to use my leverage and optionality to get the best deal -- because I do know after that contract is done, life goes on. Fortunately, nowadays my skill is my mind, and I am missed by my clients who call back but that will not always be the case. Here is that quote that sparked this post:

Per James Boyd of The Athletic, Jim Irsay said: “If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us,” “The league goes on. We know that. The National Football (League) rolls on. It doesn’t matter who comes and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.”

#knowyourworth #leverage #optionality