Now I am no Will Smith in I Am Legend, but by being one of the few non-believers of the rapid rise of the real estate market I often felt like I stood alone. This was often documented here at Urbanomics and my lone bad investment that reminded me to always stick to my judgement was in New Century Financial. So is being Legend easy, actually yes just pick up the Wall Street Journal. Yesterday's paper confirmed my recent post about INFLATION, which continues its rise and has reached its highest level in 27 years.
Next, we discussed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and their sharp decline. Freddie recently auctioned more of its debt as rumors continue to swirl about a possible government bailout. If the government steps in to bail out shares at very low prices current investors could basically be left with nothing.
Oil & Gas has rebounded today and saw gains of roughly 5%. This is largely due to the disruptions between Russia and Georgia. Our position in natural gas pipelines should fare well during these times.
The last point I will discuss is one that I believe will continue to play out in the retail sector. I believe that a number of the retailers benefitted from the economic stimulus plan and many had really good quarters. I have already highlighted retailer, Big Lots, who I think like Wal-Mart benefitted from this factor. Notice that Wal-Mart noted that they see future weakness and Target also see declines. I will closely watch the retailers and look to short players like Big Lots when they rebound and closely reach their 52 week high.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Wall Street Gold Medal
Going for gold might be replaced with the phrase 'Going for Phelps' one of these days. But if you are in the financial markets getting your Michael Phelps on has been difficult because the markets have been more volatile than a crazy ex-girlfriend. If you know where I am going with this she's up one day and then flying off the charts the next day in the other direction. The nice thing is I have been picking good girls lately as stocks and I haven't been whipped around as much as others have. If you followed our post just a month ago, I posted the steps to navigate these choppy markets --> http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2008/07/navigating-choppy-markets.html.
One again the market has had two sharp day to the downside, however most investors feeling the brunt of that pain are people exposed to the financial sector. After recent articles spooked the investment community, investors have been selling off banks and Fannie and Freddie rather quickly. There have been articles that have highlighted that another big bank may go under due to the ongoing credit crunch. Then Barron's pointed out that there is a likelihood that the government may have to bail out Fannie and Freddie which could leave current stakes invested in the government sponsored agencies worthless. All this proves is that financials suck and will continue to suck for the forseeable future. Why people choose to ignore that fact is beyond me. In your 401K plan or in your IRA, I would stick with less volatile investments at this point like the Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). This is still a solid pick because the Producers Price Index (PPI) was recently released and again inflation is steadily rising. And in my brokerage account I see myself steadily moving towards dividend yielding stocks, technology, transportation, and infrastructure plays.
And for a quick discussion on some of the stocks in my actual portfolio and/or in my stock tracker portfolio:
Collectors Universe (CLCT) - Although, you may want to smack this company like many others for spending without a conscious, they have announced a strategy to cut back on expenses now that their gem grading business is gaining traction. I hope that this business continues to take off like I observed after reading the last quarterly report and while we wait enjoy the 14% dividend this stock touts. I know the fear may be that the dividend will be cut due to such a high yield, but as long as the payments are made keep 'collecting' and participate in a dividend re-investment program (DRIP) to obtain more shares at these low prices.
Burlington Northern (BNI) - This transportation company has whethered the storm and continues to hold steady. Transports should benefit from the declining oil prices and stronger pricing power. I ain't selling until Buffet does.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Thank goodness the Yahoo mess is over and the world can move on and realize that MSFT is a world class technology company that continues to sit on an unbearable amount of cash. I would prefer that they start to increase the dividend amount so that I can get paid as I wait for great results from these guys. I would take dividends here and partipate in the DRIP.
Radisys (RSYS) - This stock reported great earnings and analysts raised the expected guidance for the next quarter by a whopping 9c! It holds steady on these tough days and usually outpaces the market on good days. It hit a bit of a rough patch after insiders sold in the last few weeks but the downside should ease and this stock should move higher.
EPD, ETE - This is a play on natural gas and I like the pipeline stocks in the future because there is good dividend insulation which should be re-invested for a great long term gain. The yield is around 7% here and is considered stable.
MOVE - This stock has rebounded from the dungeons of $2 after their earnings announcement and will move higher as real estate eventually rebounds way down the line from now.
China Digital (STV) - STV is like an ex-girlfriend and is more volatile than a Jerry Springer show. I think the international slowdown causes this stock to sag and the drop has been sharp. This stock rebounds when the market is positive and does so rather sharply. I would recommend adding to your positions slowly.
AK Steel (AKS) - I believe is still a solid company but get out of the way of the commodities. Its like trying to catch a falling knife and thats not too smart.
EWJ - Great play on the downturn in the international markets, especially Japan.
OPTR - Don't know a lot about this stock which met my screen. It was up sharply then retreated. I don't own this stock but would look to take profits after another quick run up.
One again the market has had two sharp day to the downside, however most investors feeling the brunt of that pain are people exposed to the financial sector. After recent articles spooked the investment community, investors have been selling off banks and Fannie and Freddie rather quickly. There have been articles that have highlighted that another big bank may go under due to the ongoing credit crunch. Then Barron's pointed out that there is a likelihood that the government may have to bail out Fannie and Freddie which could leave current stakes invested in the government sponsored agencies worthless. All this proves is that financials suck and will continue to suck for the forseeable future. Why people choose to ignore that fact is beyond me. In your 401K plan or in your IRA, I would stick with less volatile investments at this point like the Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). This is still a solid pick because the Producers Price Index (PPI) was recently released and again inflation is steadily rising. And in my brokerage account I see myself steadily moving towards dividend yielding stocks, technology, transportation, and infrastructure plays.
And for a quick discussion on some of the stocks in my actual portfolio and/or in my stock tracker portfolio:
Collectors Universe (CLCT) - Although, you may want to smack this company like many others for spending without a conscious, they have announced a strategy to cut back on expenses now that their gem grading business is gaining traction. I hope that this business continues to take off like I observed after reading the last quarterly report and while we wait enjoy the 14% dividend this stock touts. I know the fear may be that the dividend will be cut due to such a high yield, but as long as the payments are made keep 'collecting' and participate in a dividend re-investment program (DRIP) to obtain more shares at these low prices.
Burlington Northern (BNI) - This transportation company has whethered the storm and continues to hold steady. Transports should benefit from the declining oil prices and stronger pricing power. I ain't selling until Buffet does.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Thank goodness the Yahoo mess is over and the world can move on and realize that MSFT is a world class technology company that continues to sit on an unbearable amount of cash. I would prefer that they start to increase the dividend amount so that I can get paid as I wait for great results from these guys. I would take dividends here and partipate in the DRIP.
Radisys (RSYS) - This stock reported great earnings and analysts raised the expected guidance for the next quarter by a whopping 9c! It holds steady on these tough days and usually outpaces the market on good days. It hit a bit of a rough patch after insiders sold in the last few weeks but the downside should ease and this stock should move higher.
EPD, ETE - This is a play on natural gas and I like the pipeline stocks in the future because there is good dividend insulation which should be re-invested for a great long term gain. The yield is around 7% here and is considered stable.
MOVE - This stock has rebounded from the dungeons of $2 after their earnings announcement and will move higher as real estate eventually rebounds way down the line from now.
China Digital (STV) - STV is like an ex-girlfriend and is more volatile than a Jerry Springer show. I think the international slowdown causes this stock to sag and the drop has been sharp. This stock rebounds when the market is positive and does so rather sharply. I would recommend adding to your positions slowly.
AK Steel (AKS) - I believe is still a solid company but get out of the way of the commodities. Its like trying to catch a falling knife and thats not too smart.
EWJ - Great play on the downturn in the international markets, especially Japan.
OPTR - Don't know a lot about this stock which met my screen. It was up sharply then retreated. I don't own this stock but would look to take profits after another quick run up.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Will Solar Shine In Your Portfolio
My initial guess is it will in the long term solar will continue to be a consistent source of alternative energy for America. Now to be honest this is such a difficult area to invest in because for me I don't have alot of information on how to separate the good solar companies from the bad. Today, I truly felt like I left a good opportunity on the table while I was doing my research yesterday. I am going to fault the great American gymnasts for slightly distracting me as I was reading a story that was HEADLINED on Yahoo's front page. It was describing a large deal for solar technology that is taking place in California. So I clicked on the following story:
TWO LARGE SOLAR PLANTS PLANNED FOR CALIFORNIA
After reading the story I followed in the footsteps of one of my investing mentors, Peter Lynch, and began researching some of the key companies mentioned (OptiSolar, PG&E, and Sunpower). My only problem was the Olympics didn't allow me to do a very detailed review of the article above. I read the article and decided that the PG&E was not going to be my main focus because they may benefit in the long term from a large exposure from solar technology they will be spending capital in the short term to get there. However, I was very interested in the companies providing the solar equipment to PG&E which would be OptiSolar and Sunpower. Now with a quick read of that article you its focus is mainly on OptiSolar and I decided to find the company website and determine if this was a public company or could provide an additional lead to an investment. Now what you didn't hear me mention was a review of Sunpower to determine if they were a public company. There lied my mistake because I overlooked the second company, which didn't have as much of a focus during the story, and missed a great opportunity to cash in on this news early.
So as I did some light research on this lovely Friday evening, I learned that Sunpower (the second company) was up 18% today on news that it looks to sign big deals like the one announced with PG&E. You win some and I guess you miss some.
On another note, I have found a solar ETF (KWT) that could provide you with exposure to this growing sector without having to pick just one.
Buffet Note:
I should probably pay just as much attention to his recent additions in his portfolio but the more suprising news is the addition of an energy company, NRG Energy. This company is currently down 18% since that addition and now that this has been disclosed this stock will benefit from the Buffett Effect. NRG is up 5%, even as most energy firms are declining today.
TWO LARGE SOLAR PLANTS PLANNED FOR CALIFORNIA
After reading the story I followed in the footsteps of one of my investing mentors, Peter Lynch, and began researching some of the key companies mentioned (OptiSolar, PG&E, and Sunpower). My only problem was the Olympics didn't allow me to do a very detailed review of the article above. I read the article and decided that the PG&E was not going to be my main focus because they may benefit in the long term from a large exposure from solar technology they will be spending capital in the short term to get there. However, I was very interested in the companies providing the solar equipment to PG&E which would be OptiSolar and Sunpower. Now with a quick read of that article you its focus is mainly on OptiSolar and I decided to find the company website and determine if this was a public company or could provide an additional lead to an investment. Now what you didn't hear me mention was a review of Sunpower to determine if they were a public company. There lied my mistake because I overlooked the second company, which didn't have as much of a focus during the story, and missed a great opportunity to cash in on this news early.
So as I did some light research on this lovely Friday evening, I learned that Sunpower (the second company) was up 18% today on news that it looks to sign big deals like the one announced with PG&E. You win some and I guess you miss some.
On another note, I have found a solar ETF (KWT) that could provide you with exposure to this growing sector without having to pick just one.
Buffet Note:
I should probably pay just as much attention to his recent additions in his portfolio but the more suprising news is the addition of an energy company, NRG Energy. This company is currently down 18% since that addition and now that this has been disclosed this stock will benefit from the Buffett Effect. NRG is up 5%, even as most energy firms are declining today.
Friday, August 08, 2008
Automated Trades
Auto-mato used to call me Fatso, now they call me Brasco. And if you don't recognize that line, I'm sorry you are up on your Notorious BIG or Biggie history. Step ya game up!!! Well after a strong week I wanted to give you a quick update and I closed my position in Brooks Automation (BRKS). I recommended this stock just around two weeks ago and we had the opportunity to lock in about 8-10% in gains!!! I am not a pig, because pigs get slaughtered so I took the gains and ran. BRKS reported lower earnings but again in the mysterious world of earnings season the steet must have seen the turnaround potential in this stock.
This was a great test for me because I have laid down ground rules for trading and although very difficult I must learn to stick to these rules. Over time I will share these with you but for starters, I have some simple rules like taking profits in a position that quickly gained 5% in less than a week and 10% in less than a month in stocks that don't represent my core positions.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the OLYMPICS!!!
This was a great test for me because I have laid down ground rules for trading and although very difficult I must learn to stick to these rules. Over time I will share these with you but for starters, I have some simple rules like taking profits in a position that quickly gained 5% in less than a week and 10% in less than a month in stocks that don't represent my core positions.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the OLYMPICS!!!
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
July/Aug Earnings Season
Here are a few quick updates for trading during this earnings season:
Commodities - Trade these names quickly and look to sell the rips and buy the dips (thanks Fast Money for this phrase).
I am looking for oversold conditions and carefully buying these names. For instance, I have had a limit order out to buy the COAL ETF (NYSE: KOL) @ 42.90 in the event it reached to these fundamental levels which I considered cheap. I am not a technical chartist but I have found that these levels seemed reasonable, offered support and not to mention would require almost a 15% decline from recent levels. Well to say the least I hit my limit and will the recent pull back this morning I unloaded KOL for around a 2-3% gain.
Clayton Williams (CWEI) - Going back to the theme identified above, I am going into earning season and if I see a fundamental shift in the business model of one of the stocks we own its time to unload. I am sad to say that I have finally sold CWEI after its most recent earnings after holding on for over 2 years. From the depths of 30-40$ a share we watched this ride to over 100% gain. The earnings report available to everyone this morning before the actual call told the story. They had losses on derivatives, and some of the wells are costing more that what they had hoped...throw into the mix that the commodity sector is taking it on the chin...its time to sell this gem of a stock.
Commodities - Trade these names quickly and look to sell the rips and buy the dips (thanks Fast Money for this phrase).
I am looking for oversold conditions and carefully buying these names. For instance, I have had a limit order out to buy the COAL ETF (NYSE: KOL) @ 42.90 in the event it reached to these fundamental levels which I considered cheap. I am not a technical chartist but I have found that these levels seemed reasonable, offered support and not to mention would require almost a 15% decline from recent levels. Well to say the least I hit my limit and will the recent pull back this morning I unloaded KOL for around a 2-3% gain.
Clayton Williams (CWEI) - Going back to the theme identified above, I am going into earning season and if I see a fundamental shift in the business model of one of the stocks we own its time to unload. I am sad to say that I have finally sold CWEI after its most recent earnings after holding on for over 2 years. From the depths of 30-40$ a share we watched this ride to over 100% gain. The earnings report available to everyone this morning before the actual call told the story. They had losses on derivatives, and some of the wells are costing more that what they had hoped...throw into the mix that the commodity sector is taking it on the chin...its time to sell this gem of a stock.
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