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Monday, August 25, 2014

Markets...No Longer 'Starting From the Bottom'

I have not written a post in a while and I guess I fall into the age old Wall Street saying: "Sell in May and Go Away".  This phrase is well known in the investment community and is used to describe the the summer season where investors like myself find better uses of their time than keeping up with the stocks or the Kardashians.  I have kept fairly busy and have been distracted by a nice summer of sun, sports, and home projects.  Being busy has reduced my investment activities and I guess that I was 'busy in May...and went away'.  So the question is are you missing out on in the markets, this summer??  As you know, I always start with my view of how I believe the economy is performing. Here are some of the things I've observed: 

Work and Mobility Increasing
- People continue to work more
- More Job Openings / Recruiters Calling
- People Accepting New Jobs
- More people moving to new homes/ in-state/ across state lines

Frugal Country
- Pay is increasing slowly upwards
- People are looking to continue to reduce their expenses,
- Find affordable housing and living
- Everyone is looking for deals

Controlled Splurges
- More Staycations (Stay at home vacations - theme parks, bed and breakfasts, etc) Also 1 tank gas trips
- People waiting for great deals on vacations
- Tech Purchases: Phones/tablets, touch devices - People want exciting devices that make their lives easier and considered cool

What this means to your portfolio:

The stock market is often a leading indicator and has been doing VERY well for the last few years. To put it into perspective...I heard a stat that I found amazing: At one point stocks, specifically the SP 500 had 75 days without a correction recently. This means things have rebounded very well and astonishingly there hasn't been much of a pause.  So using my best Drake impersonation...this market is definitely NOT "Starting from the Bottom". Do I have some grand plan...Yes and NO.

My Investment Plan
- Don't do anything grand :)
- Take notes from Drake: This market started at the bottom (hit bottom) in 2009 and 2010 and now we are here at market highs. I have kept it simple...Starting last quarter whenever the Dow Jones enters into the 17000 territory I take the time to SELL some of my big winners at the top. At this point, I don't mind holding a bit of cash, buy something paying a dividend, and or wait until stocks I like drop.
- Activate the Activist Investors: When I sell some winners, I'm buying stocks that may rise quickly because they are being bought by other companies or are being pushed to do something by big time investors like: Carl Icahn, John Paulson, or myself, The Oracle of Hyde Park. Here is my quick list:

TIME WARNER CABLE 
ALLERGAN 
LULULEMON
HERTZ