Federal Reserve Announces Taper / World Improving? / Stocks on My Mind

FED ANNOUNCES a $10 BILLION DOLLAR TAPER
The Federal Reserve has been pumping billions and billions of dollars into the US economy. Today was the first step by the Fed to say that the US economy, their patient, appears to be in steady recovery mode.  The recovery appears to be steady enough that they are starting to reduce the amount of medicine they have been giving to the patient...in the form of the stimulus they have been pumping into the economy.  This was a pivotal moment in the market and the reaction so far is very positive.  Investors believe that the Fed's view that the US is in recovery mode because stocks have catapulted higher. Stay tuned and let's look back in the next 3 to 12 months from now and see if we feel more jobs being created, houses being bought, and you and your friends spending more.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101279385

ARE ECONOMIES IMPROVING AROUND THE WORLD?
I am consistently the naysayer, as I am always looking for risks that impact the markets. But I must admit the news that I have seen recently is VERY positive.  The unemployment rates are coming down in both the US and I saw a story today about the rate in the UK and this is very positive for growth around the world.  More people working means companies are hiring and people have more money to spend in the future.


STOCKS/THEMES ON MY MIND
Lululemon (LULU)- This company continues to stumble and has recently fired it's CEO for some very insensitive comments towards women.  Not the brightest move considering women are their core target group. But I also know that the YOGA and health movement is serious and people want to look the part when they get fit. I believe they are trading around roughly $59 dollars.

Caterpillar (CAT) - A company that had been in the stuck in the mud and the stock price hasn't been doing well. But they are very much impacted by global growth and with things improving this stock may make a nice move up.  Stock price has ranged from $84 to $87. I believe it trades at roughly $87 today.

Stocks Which Support Online Businesses: International Paper (IP), FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS)
I realize that more than 75% of my purchase habits happen online. I now buy my home goods online and have had dish soap, laundry detergent, door handles, and a host of other products delivered to my house. They always come in a brown corrugated box (International Paper) and are delivered primarily by UPS when I purchase items from Amazon.  I've recently heard that groceries can be bought online very soon...see Amazon "PANTRY".  I think more boxes and deliveries are coming to both your house and mine.

Health Care: I listened to a very interesting story on National Public Radio the other day.  For the first time, health care insurers are taking major steps to advertise their products in response to the Affordable Care Act.  I don't know many things but I do know 1 thing...when companies are spending billions of dollars to advertise it's because they see an opportunity to grow and gain market share.  Insurance is a business that seems to experience very little turnover once they've signed up a customer.  If I am an example, I have had the same auto and health care provider for as long as I can think. There will be a number of winners due to the expansion of the Affordable Care Act. Investors have already realized this a number of these stocks are up significantly this year...but the biggest change to the health care sections in decades will cause some serious gains for years to come.

Easier Said Than Done...

“It’s been a long time, shouldn’t have left you without a dope beat to step too…”  As you know I have a love for music, especially hip-hop, so when I am thinking a song will often pop into my head.  Here, I am thinking of how long it’s been since I’ve written something to the readers out there.  I admit work, life, and stuff happens but I shouldn’t have left you without a nice article to think about.

I would like to start off by simply just being honest!  One of the primary reasons I have not written anything is that in REALITY there is not that much going on in the investment world.  Maybe I should say it different, the markets have been steadily going UP and there hasn’t been much else.  If you remember, there have been a few moments in the last year or so where I wrote that the stock market indicators lead me to believe that stocks and the overall market were headed higher for the foreseeable future.  If I were a TV personality, I can say “We Predicted This Would Happen!” but the reality is it took months and months of reading, researching, and keeping my eyes and ears open to rationalize where things were logically headed.  The goal while investing is to navigate through ALL of the NOISE (family, friends, and TV people telling you how to invest) and for you to logically conclude about where things like are headed.  Once you get a good idea about that then you can determine what and how much to invest in.  I am here to simply share my thoughts on how I navigate through the noise so that I can share those with you and I can learn from the past by coming back and reading my own writings.  This is helpful in life, because you must navigate through the noise (when choosing a house, car, job, etc.) and really get down to making a sound decision.

Here I am always looking to make a sound investment and I’m going to present 1 topic to assist you on your investment journey:

Easier Said Than Done…

Running With the Bulls...

One day I anticipate visiting Spain and on my bucket list would be "Running With the Bulls".  But then I saw pictures from a recent run through the city and let's say getting gored in the upper thigh is not my idea of fun.  I have not written a post in awhile because sometimes you have to just sit back and watch a story unfold.  If you've read any of my recent posts its been pretty clear. I remain as constant as the North Star...as long as their is no tapering and the Federal Reserve is pumping money into the economy stocks will do well. I've written about that all year and believe that will continue to be the case.  I will try to use as few words as possible and the first things that come to mind about these hot topics:

Debt Ceiling - Dumb Politicians, Wasted News Cycle, Pay Your Bills
Obamacare - Tech Bugs Happen, Why All at Once, Insurance is Complicated
Apple - Gold...Really?
Twitter - IPO Coming Soon
Netflix - New Version of TV, Shares On Fire
Tesla - Car on Fire, Cool Ride
NSA - If President's cell phones are tapped...good luck everyone else :)

Stay tuned for more posts...

Reading With A Purpose - Summary of Recent Posts

I wanted to put together a quick summary of the last few URBANOMICS blog posts that were written.  A question that I got recently was, “You Must Put A Lot of Time…” and they were referencing the amount of research that I might do when investing.  At first this took me by surprise because I have a full time job. However, I had to remember that I do take time out to research and focus on the markets and this may be more that the “average” person does.  However, I would ask someone do they take time to “Workout” and while that might seem demanding to someone else others might consider it necessary for a well-balanced life.  So I am here to assist you with getting your Financial Footing on.

The first and most basic lesson is “Read With a Purpose”. I write with one so in turn you should read with one. Let’s summarize the last few posts and what the takeaways might be:

Please Don’t Kill My Investing Vibe

 Link to Post

This post takes the confusing world of economics and policy and breaks it down for you.  It simply asks do you think “The World Around You Is Improving”.  While there are some secrets to investing, there isn’t one to thinking and whether you own a few or a lot of stocks you should get comfortable using your senses to gauge when the world around you is improving.

• More stores opening /Stores trying new foods, flavors, etc
•  Friends changing jobs / Jobs hard to fill at work
• Construction popping up
• Co-Workers vacationing more / Summer Homes purchases
• Homes Being Built, Friends being out-bid

Believe it or not these are all things that you, the person on the street, can SEE, HEAR, SMELL, TOUCH, or FEEL.  The more or less confident you are about these things happening the more they signal that the economy is doing great or poorly, respectively.  Update your retirement account and investments when you get stronger or negative feelings about these things going on around you.  For me, I am seeing condos going up, the development down the street sold out quickly, a new Hotel is being completed, friends are switching jobs, and the seats on my vacation to the Caribbeans is almost full. I think the economy is chugging along.

Same Companies New Tricks

 Link To Post

I wanted to share with you my sensory investing.

• McDonald’s – I see the lines even during their late night hours. (I even jump in line...bad habit)
• Best Buy – I recently asked them to match a competitor’s pricing and they didn’t…I left. (There loss)
• Groupon – I wanted to buy a product and oddly enough Groupon was selling this item for the lowest price…not a daily deal but at their online store. (My first time wanting to shop there...will other feel the same way)

 These all help to shape my investment ideas and notice Groupon’s big rise recently their store concept may be taking hold. Example of a starting point for an investment.

Interest Rates May Be Rising

 Link to Post

This article was timely because soon after what happened…Interest Rates went on a tear and rose at the fastest rate since 1987.  This might cause buyers to get in while rates are low or this may cause a short-term slow down as buyers get nervous when rates spike.  The key thing is use this as a starting point and go from there.

Fatest Rise Since '87

 Markets are Going Higher

Link to Post

This post analyzed what direction the markets might head.  We “LISTENED” to smart investors like David Tepper who said the next leg is higher. We’ve tuned into his cues since 2010 and they are interesting. Do we make our whole decision based on his thoughts…No but it’s a starting point. Then the Dow was at 14000, since then we’ve shot to 15,500

Please Don't Kill My Investing Vibe...

Thanks to Kendrick Lamar for producing one of my favorite tracks out there and describing my approach right now to life and investments.  Plainly said, I don't want anyone messing up my vibe of working hard, making quick and thoughtful decisions and reflecting on it all to ensure that I'm focusing on things that will make me better.  My investing vibe right now is to sit back and ride out this amazing economic and stock market recovery.  I remember how bad both were years back and we must take a moment to give props to resilient people (workers), companies, and yes even 'some' of our politicians that promoted a pro-growth environment.  I firmly believe if we had engaged in less stimulus and more cost cutting we would've been in BIG trouble.  This is what makes the field of economics and behavioral analysis so interesting to me. But before I put you to sleep...follow my vibe:

The Verdict Is In...

I have been stir crazy for the last 24 hours once the verdict was reached in the State of Florida vs George Zimmerman. This is a very sad time because we see what fear continues to do to our country. It allows us to create laws that allow us to take matters into our own hands and not be accountable. I know many people want to debate the merits of "the case" but what about debating the merits of "life". Trayvon Martin, a young boy was shot.  When did we all forget that was the most basic element of this tragedy. A young boy was shot because he was profiled and then pursued. What if this was your young son?? STOP, please fill in your son's name ___________  What if this was your son or daughter... would you be outraged??  And yes, let us be happy for what we have and hug our sons / daughters / cousins / nephew / nieces closer but let's also remember that with senseless laws and acts like this some people won't be able to hug their children anymore. And if that precious right was taken away from you...how would you feel. If you truly are personalizing this case, then push for change at all levels...not for it all to go away.

2nd Quarter 2013: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS / 1 FREE ALERT

2nd Quarter 2013: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

2nd Quarter 2013 Premium Stock Alerts

This quarter’s picks are late, but better late than never. I've been researching these stocks over the course of the last 3 months or more and found 3 stocks with margin of safety and the right catalysts.  Please see the following stocks that were recommended to subscribers receiving premium alerts. 

Stock #1: **********

Details

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Oil and Gas Equipment Services Tip: Pledge of Allegiance to crude.

Stock #2: **********

Details Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Oil and Gas Refining Tip: Check mate.

Stock #3: **********

Details

Sector: Technology
Industry: Application Software
Tip Up for a game of Simon Says?

The market has been on a tear and the last few quarters have seen me doing my version of the twist…or rotation.  I have been selling a few of my winners and rotating into new names. Some names were really beat down like Stock #3. Others are the wrath of the investment community which are pushing for them to do more or else new ownership will have too.  I've given you plenty of hints and I’ll even throw in a free ALERT because it was an absolutely gorgeous July 4^th weekend in Chicago.

FREE ALERT

Stock #4: DEX MEDIA

Details

Sector: SERVICES Industry: MARKETING SERVICES Tip It’s a rolodex and paperweight! Explanation: Dex Media is what we used to know as the Yellow and White Pages. They have re-invented themselves and offer a large slate of products to businesses. Hence the rolodex full of numbers and the size of the old book would be a great paperweight.

Same Companies....New Tricks (McDonald's, Best Buy, Groupon)

McDonald's Late Night Breakfast Cravings

Sometimes I feel like I could be a Fortune 500 CEO, especially when they take an idea right outta my head. Let's take the Golden Arches.  I've had this idea buzzing around in my head for years and they finally took the plunge.  McDonald's is bringing breakfast to a late night menu near you.  Sorry Denny's I think a few people make be making a quick stop at the drive thru.

Read All About It Link

Store-In-A-Store Continues With Best Buy

Best Buy continues the JC Penney concept of stores within a store.  I wonder if this is the concept for companies that have been left for dead.  Ouch...Microsoft has teamed up with Best Buy and there with be a Microsoft store within your local store.  This is such a fabulous concept Samsung has decided it will also place stores within Best Buy.  I guess they will likely win over me...because I love 1 STOP SHOPPING...but does that make this a department store??

Linky

I know I'm not here to make fun of them but rather tell you how stopping in at the drive thru can make you money.  If you think either of these will be a big hit check the stocks out.  Best Buy is finding more reasons for you to stay in the store and McDonald's want your after the bar pit stop to include something you would normally eat in the morning, anyways!

Groupon

Predictions of their demise were off. This company has stabilized since the departure of Andrew Mason, the former CEO. The stock price has rebounded and Groupon "might" be maturing. They are leaving deals open longer which was my biggest complaint (sort of) and a reason why I never signed up for Groupon. This means I can get the deal when I actually need the item and not just serving as impulse purchases.  And you just may start buying things like you do on Amazon at Groupon.  Some of you already know that Groupon sells actual goods and they have been competitive on a number of items and want to be your top destination for shopping. Stay tuned on how this plays out but its has certainly rebounded , albeit there wasn't much lower it could go.

Tell Me What's Happening: Interest Rates Rising / Homebuyers Are Hurrying

There are a few themes going on around me right now.  Is it just me or does everything seem a little 'CHOPPY'!  This seems to apply to the weather, the stock market, jobs, interest rates...and definitely GAS prices.  So I wanted to start a dialogue to help us understand why.  There is no point in me writing (or talking) much I want to post a few videos that may help explain why.

First up is Interest Rates. These rates help determine what our mortgage rates will be.  The Federal Reserve can manipulate interest rates to help speed or slow down our economy when it needs to...think like a treadmill.  They have hinted they may be doing less tinkering with the economy and that is making rates move higher.  Oddly enough, this may be great for homeowners as buyers may race to get in on this historically low rates BEFORE its too late.

Check this video out:

My Predictions On the Upcoming War... (Free Picks Included)

Well I had a very interesting discussion last week on wars...and that was in a bar, so I figured I'd keep going I guess.  I could talk about North Korea but I'd rather talk about a different possible war.  I started off believing that only athletes and musicians "make it rain" and usually in dimly lit places :)

At Urbanomics, we don't leave you out in the cold, here is a quick definition from URBANDICTIONARY.COM:

Make It Rain: When you're in the club with a stack, and you throw the money up in the air... The effect is that it seems to be raining money. 

Then, I learned about Central Bankers around the world and their endless access to cash and they put guys like Lil Wayne, Adam 'Pacman' Jones, and P. Diddy to shame.  Central Bankers (around the world) are the equivalent to the US version of Ben Bernanke, the head of the Federal Reserve.  Earlier this year, I wrote about Ben and how some very smart investors (see David Tepper, Ray Dalio) were telling us that when the Fed 'makes it rain' it's our job to pick up the money and buy stocks.  We did just that and we've rode the stock market ALL THE WAY up to all time highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP500.

Here is where the war begins...other countries don't usually like when one country prints money because their goods become cheaper and the people across the world begin buying those cheaper goods and so far this has helped the US economy. So guess what they in turn do...THAT'S RIGHT, they sometimes do the exact same thing.  So who is ready for battle, see JAPAN.  They have an official that has promised to 'make it rain' at levels that only we've seen in here in America.  Here's why I find this interesting...and how we make money:

Chicago Housing Market Is On Fire...

They often say "Real Estate" is local. The Chicago market appears to be showing POSITIVE trends that are similar across the country. I often view the Case-Shiller Report on housing in the 20 largest metro areas...and the one thing that I've been very bullish on is housing.  Numbers don't lie and homebuilders, home repair, carpet companies, and other housing related stocks have all been up.  As a matter of fact, I am so bullish on the sector that one of my premium alert picks has a connection to housing.  If you are a (1) New Homebuyer, (2) Existing Homeowner, or (3) On the sidelines, you want to review this video which show the Chicago market is moving well...and more importantly explains why.

See the video attached here:

1st Quarter 2013: PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

1st Quarter 2013: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

1st Quarter 2013 Premium Stock Alerts

My 1st quarter picks are FINALLY OUT. I’ve been researching these stocks over the course of the last 3 months and found 3 stocks with margin of safety and the right catalysts.  Please see the following stocks that were sent to subscribers receiving premium alerts.

Stock #1: **********

Details

Sector: Financial Industry: ????? Tip I've got Montrose...and I'll even count Benton

Stock #2: **********

Details

Sector: Consumer Goods Industry: ????? Tip You need 1 for March Madness...

Stock #3: **********

Details

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Oil and Gas Tip In Texas "Its The Law"

Its March and my newest picks are finally out. The Fed is 'Making It Rain' money and stocks will continue to do well. But I only really like stocks that have been beaten down...like they stole something. So its really getting difficult to find a lot of discounts. More stock reveals coming soon.

Urban Download...

Am I a degenerate investor...YES!  Most people will attest to the fact that I have a Wall Street Journal with me everywhere I go.  I like reading and taking in data because these bits of data each day may eventually lead to bigger things.  I may wanna know about the latest technology that is disrupting 'Business As Usual', random opinions about why gas prices are high, and I even keep up with companies that are Buzzworthy.  Some of these are great for talks around the water cooler, others good to know, and just maybe one day I may connect some dots and find something that makes a compelling argument for an investment one day.

Technology Disruptor

VIBER (http://www.viber.com/)

This app for your phone seems like a really cool idea.  They've been labeled the Skype for your phone and claim to allow you to call and text any other user for FREE.  No user ID is needed because it recognizes your phone number once downloaded and even automatically adds any friends that have VIBER without needing to search and add for those users.

Anyone using this app...please post your feedback

Things that Make You Go Hmmm....

I was listening to people that follow the market and the Gas industry and found the following details interesting:

1) Gas prices have been up every day since Jan 17th
2) Whenever gas has hit $3.80 as a national average...the economy has turned sour
3) From here going into the summer driving season, gas prices usually rise another 26%

Buzzworthy

Groupon - Everyone has an opinion on this stock. They reported earning and the market didn't like what it heard.  Down 24% 
GRPN Story

Zynga - The hitmaker of your favorite apps is making a brake for the 'Online Gaming' industry. Stay tuned. 
Zynga Bets On Gaming

Herbalife - The debate continues on whether this company is legit or a Ponzi Scheme.

Hewlett Packard - Back from the brink of death??? They will be selling a $169 tablet.

Yahoo - The CEO (Marissa Mayer) just told their employees that telecommuting is no longer an option. Ouch...get back to work.

Personal Finance - Budget 101 / Free Credit History

I often get a number of questions related to everyday finances and how a reader can improve their financial health.  First thing first, is to take care of the basic key elements.  The second thing is to is to do it as cheaply as possibly.  And yes, don't let anyone fool you...you can Do It Yourself (DIY)!  There are a number of personal finance lessons that I have written about in the past and I will attempt to go back and re-tag all those posts to include the labels "PERSONAL FINANCE".  I will create a link for easy access to these tips but remember you can search the site to find notes and tips to assist you get financially healthier.

1) Going On a Healthy Diet - Budget, Budget, Budget

I am personally a spreadsheet man myself.  I create a very basic Excel spreadsheet that I use to track all my budget needs. So search the Internet and you can find many tools to assist you with Budgeting 101.  The key elements don't change often, so follow these tips:

• Categorize every expense by type and don't use MISCELLANEOUS (Examples: Utilities, Food, Entertainment, Auto)
• Don't you cash unless remember to 'categorize' every penny...exactly "Don't Use Cash"
• At the end of a Month, your goal should be to have more "Income" than "Expenses"
• Don't be afraid to make hard cuts (sacrifice now for a better future, every penny counts)
• Pay down debts quickly, and FOCUS on high interest rates first (Credit Cards, School Loans, Personal Loans)
• Once you pay off debts, try to pay off any new debts 'Each Month'. I know every month
• Yes its okay to have FUN, but budget and categorize it
• Use the extra money from your budget to "Invest In Yourself". The goal is to create a rainy day account

I use spreadsheets and some people use envelopes, but the important thing to remember is to find a system that works for you and to stick to it. Just like working out.

2) Get on The Scale - Check Your Credit For Free

Unless you can pay for everything with cash, then you need to be honest with yourself and "Weigh In" from time to time.  Financially, weighing your self on the scale is "Checking Your Credit History".  This is the one time when you want your numbers to go UP! A higher credit number is much better than a low score.  Now don't get crazy, check your credit annually...no more, no less.  Look for errors and make sure you pay your bills on time.  There are 3 scales that you will need to weigh in with, and they are the 3 major credit bureaus: Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax.

DIY Tip: Don't listen to commercials or some salesperson over the phone, check your report FOR FREE.  Yes, the government passed a rule years ago allowing you and I to have a FREE view of our credit history, once a year...and it can all be done through one website!  If anyone else claims to offer this service, ask them if you will ever be charged...and don't forget to tell them that you are recording the conversation. That should do the trick :)    Here is the link:

AnnualCreditReport

Dow at 14000 (Pt.3) - The Markets Will Go Lower!?!

If you've followed my last few posts its very clear by now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is trading right around 14,000.  The Dow is a broad representation of many companies throughout the US and is often used as a indicator by many investors. These levels are significant because they are very near all-time highs and more importantly a representation of how far we've come. If we go back four years ago, the DOW was at roughly 8900 and thanks to the American people, companies, government we've bounced back almost 50%.

  In PART 1 of this series (Dow @ 14000), I tried to show you how information available to the public can be used to develop your direction on where the markets are headed.  In short you should always be invested in the stock market but when the market is cheap you should invest more and when its expensive you should pull back some.  So clicking on the link above helps to show that through a little research the average investor can pick up on some signals that assist us in knowing when to buy stocks.  And who better to get some tips from then billionaire investor, David Tepper.  

So we participated in this nice run up in the markets, however; the REAL question is... will stocks continue to go up??  I guess the first thing to point out is there will be a correction! A correction in this case will be a pull back or a move down in the stock market. Simply put, a correction will likely happen because the markets have moved up in a straight line.  And think about the markets like you think about dieting...it never goes in a straight line (no one loses all of the weight all at once).  There will be really good weeks and a few bad ones and while the markets are getting healthy and losing the weight but they haven't had any setbacks.  You can almost hang your hat on the fact that there may be a pullback because so many investors are talking about the need for one to justify that this market is for real (one with fluctuations) and not just some type of fad (like with diets).

So now its time to listen to some really smart people who believe the market(s) may go lower.  First up is Jeffery Gundlach who predicts that another crisis is coming to world markets who will try to stall by pumping money (see 'Making It Rain')...however; this story likely leads to inflation and possible default for some countries. I've read the following link and found his points very interesting:

Gundlach's Negative View On Markets

Now that you've read the article along with me, I find it interesting that Gundlach wants to buy the following hard assets: 

• Gemstones,
• Art, and 
• Commercial Real Estate

When it comes to stocks he'll be investing in the following types of equities:

• Chinese stocks
• Nat Gas producers
• Gold Mining stocks

The next investor that believes that the picture is also a little murky is Marc Faber.  Please click on the link below to hear why Marc thinks the markets are due for a pullback:

What do you believe?!? If you feel that it's intuitive that markets can't just go directly up then you may be in the camp for a pullback because that is natural and healthy.  So you could benefit by selling some of your winners and/or by waiting for a pullback to buy more stocks.

Dow At 14000 (Pt.2) - The Markets Are Going Higher!?!

You heard it here, the markets are going higher!  Okay that was in my best Jim Cramer voice.  In reality, I am actually a little nervous about the markets.  I guess I start to get nervous when family and friends usually begin to take more interest in stocks.  Usually by the time my sister is talking about the markets it means that its probably moved significantly HIGHER and she along with other non-investors are late to the party.  If you followed my last post on the Dow @ 14000 I gave you a video from billionaire investor, David Tepper.  That video was from September 24, 2010 and in that video he indicated WHY the markets were going to go up. Since September 2010 until now, the markets have soared up over 31%.  Yes believe it or not, I actually listened to this video when Tepper made his revelation that markets would go up because the Federal Reserve was continuing quantitative easing (QE). I won't bore you with what QE means, but my best analogy is he was saying the Fed is 'Making It Rain' in the club.  And think about what happens to the person that benefits when its raining money in the club...the next day they go shopping.  Well when the Fed 'Makes It Rain' on our economy guess what goes up, yes: STOCKS.  Which is why he was telling us to buy back then.  So in my mind...if you weren't picking up stocks back then you are a little late to the party and you do need to be mindful of this.

The next question is where do we go from here at Dow 14000.  Well listen to our friend David Tepper on December 17, 2012 about where he thinks the markets are headed now.


Listen for the following beginning at 2:02 in the video:
- He talks about tailwinds or good things going for the economy (Housing, Car Sales)
- There is 1 Trillion Dollars Worth of Stimulus Coming from the Fed
- The Fed will keep it up until the Unemployment (Jobs) Rate Drops to 6.5% Target

I would say he is in the camp of markets going higher until the Fed stops. And considering that the Job Rate is at 7.9%, maybe the markets go HIGHER.  But one thing I've learned is markets don't go straight up...so tread carefully.  But he's not alone, my ears perked up when I heard that Ray Dalio shared a similar point of view...stay tuned.

THE REVEAL – A FREE VIEW INTO OUR PREMIUM & FREE ALERTS

The Reveal is to give readers a view into my picks or the last few years and how they've performed. I've been often posted (with clues) as to what I'm buying and through my posts you can easily see WHEN I'm buying. A sneak peak is probably more necessary now that my favorite tracking site called “Socialpicks.com” no longer exists.  This site was helpful in the past because it allowed readers to view my free alerts, track my progress, and I even dropped in a few premium alerts from time to time without telling anyone!  But my favorite tracker is no longer so I will be in search of a better one.    

So time for “THE REVEAL”:

In 2011 I started my alert service in response to a number of readers.  You can look to the right of the page to find LINKS to all of the alerts that are posted roughly on a quarterly basis.  I occasionally post a free alert or two there also.  My picks are value driven and are often held for some time.  While they represent value (deeply discounted) picks if they have a catalyst and run up quickly I never mind taking a profit. See the chart below which highlights my performance over the last few years:

Date: February 2011

BUY ALERT	REVEAL	PERFORMANCE
STOCK: ****** HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY & DRUGS TIP: Ribbon See 2011 Buy Alert(s): Alert 1 Alert 2	Stock: AVEO PHARMACEUTICALS  TICKER: AVEO Sector: HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY & DRUGS TIP: Was a reference for cancer, an area of focus for AVEO	Feb 2011 – July 2011 Sell Price: $17-20 Return: 23-49% What determined this sale price, see this link: Sale Alert
STOCK: ****** HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY & DRUGS TIP: None provided See 2011 Buy Alert: Alert 2	STOCK: PDL Biopharma Ticker: PDLISector: HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY & DRUGS TIP: None provided Provided by Yahoo: Date Adj Close* Feb 29, 2011 4.65 Feb 28, 2011 4.61	Feb 2011 – Now?? Current Price: $6.86 Return: 49% Plus: 8% dividend

Date: March 22, 2011

BUY ALERT	REVEAL	PERFORMANCE
Free Pick: FHCO Free Pick	STOCK: Female Health CoTicker: FHCO Provided by Yahoo: Date Adj Close* Mar 23, 2011 4.55 Mar 22, 2011 4.50	Mar – Now?? Current Price: $7.45  Return: 65%  Plus: 3% dividend

Date: May 5, 2011

BUY ALERT	REVEAL	PERFORMANCE
Free Pick: NBL Free Pick	STOCK: Noble EnergyTicker: NBL Provided by Yahoo: Date Adj Close* May 6, 2011 86.89 May 5, 2011                86.95	May – Now??Current Price: $113.57 Return: 31% Plus: 1% dividend

The free picks are easy to follow and amazingly if you still own or held today you would be pretty happy with your returns. Stay tuned, as I begin to release the Premium Picks from 2011 and 2012.

Dow at 14000 (Pt.1) - Are You Too Late for The Party!?!

For the first time since 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed above the 14,000 range.  This range puts the Dow near its all time high of 14,165.  You know you're getting old when you remember where you were...when something happened years ago. I remembered the last time we where at these levels and here was the brief post I wrote about it:

Dow 14,000 in 2007

Well I took the market for granted the last time it reached these levels but this time I understand how long its been and the gravity of what it means.

Are You Late For the Party??

My initial thoughts are yes! I get a little nervous when people that don't normally bring up the stock market in normal conversations start to talk about their portfolios and the need to get in before they miss out.  That usually means its already too late.  My goal is to attempt to check my emotions to the side and I usually like to buy the markets when things have gotten pretty bad.  Its not very easy to do and sometimes you have to stomach all the critics and naysayers that say the end will never come.  I bought my first condo in 2010 and the housing market in the Midwest had been plummeting for the last few years but I did my research and truly believed a bottom was very near and the decline, which was needed, was near the end of running its course.  If you buy then (buying @ discount) you enjoy out sized gains in the future.  I navigated the markets as well as an amateur investor could have done at the time (took my share of lumps) but and pulled a significant amount of funds into safer investments.  After 2008-9 when we were calling for the world to come to an end, we needed some confidence to help reiterate when to get back in. I was very hesitant to increasing my exposure to stocks but listening to one investor in late 2010 gave many firmer ground to wade back into the markets.  So think about that question in the future as you continue to invest thoughtfully during periods where its bleak or really booming.   

Help In Getting the Timing Right

I love when investors lay their points out very quickly and in 2010 the simple points of David Tepper, a billionaire hedge fund investor, allowed many to understand why we should be in the markets. If you haven't listened to the points laid out by David, you can find the video and excerpts from that discussion here:

David Tepper Rally Video

This simple excerpt from David Tepper's discussion makes it clear (from CNBC):

"Either the economy is going to get better by itself in the next three months...What assets are going to do well? Stocks are going to do well, bonds won't do so well, gold won't do as well," he said. "Or the economy is not going to pick up in the next three months and the Fed is going to come in with QE.

"Then what's going to do well? Everything, in the near term (though) not bonds...So let's see what I got—I got two different situations: One, the economy gets better by itself, stocks are better, bonds are worse, gold is probably worse. The other situation is the fed comes in with money."

I'll conclude with my thoughts that you may be a little late to the party because David laid out the case that (1) the economy will improve and stocks do well or (2) things won't go well and the Fed will inject money (QE) making stocks do well. An indication that we should should have been in stocks enjoying the rally up until this point.  However, my next few posts will share the views of both sides who argue that from here we go HIGHER...and those that definitely think the markets go LOWER.

What Are You Reading - Barron's 2013 Roundtable

I will detail in a future post what book I'm currently reading and the tips that I've picked up along the way.  But for now I am going to try and help you (1) Learn from some of the smartest investors in the game and (2) Observe some of their best picks for 2013.  The link I will post is from Barron's and their Roundtable discussion 9 notable investors.  I instantly recognize from CNBC the familiar names (and faces) of the following investors:

• MARIO GABELLI - Dr. Love (He enjoys companies merging or making love and has a nice track record to prove it.

• BILL GROSS - PIMCO Bond King 

• ABBY JOSEPH COHEN - Goldman Sachs Strategist

But then reading the insight from the other 6 panelists left me very with some very good insight from each of these investors predictions on what to expect from the market in 2013.  The other gang of 6 were:

• Scott Black
• Fred Hickey
• Brian Rogers
• Oscar Schafer
• Meryl Witmer
• Feliz Zulauf

I am slowly becoming a sponge of information about what is happening in the rest of the world and really enjoyed Feliz Zulauf's commentary.  I also love to hear them quote history because I am a firm believer that it repeats itself , however; humans never take the time to listen.  This article also include stock selections and may serve as a great place to start for new investments in 2013. 

Barron's Rountable Part I

Barron's Rountable Part II

Billionaire Beef...

If you haven't heard...there is some serious bad blood in the streets!  While I would normally expect a diss track to be surfacing soon, this beef won't be titled "Ether" or remixed over another rapper's song as a sign of disrespect. This is a good ole fashion beef amongst billionaires who aired out their dirty laundry on national television. I couldn't believe what I was hearing and then I began to wonder if I was worth a billi how would call out my opponent. Check out two Wall Street titans (Bill Ackman vs Carl Icahn) going at each other on CNBC:

Happy New Year / Themes for 2013

Happy New Year - 2013

In my first post of the year, I want to say Happy New Years to everyone out there! I wanted to pass on these words while telling everyone to continue to achieve balance, stick to your resolutions, and live life!  My backdrop on this day is ironic as I am listening to the 44^th President of the United States, Barack H. Obama, at his inauguration.  It comes on a very special day, the day that we celebrate the life and teachings of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. 

Investment Themes to Consider for 2013

The following themes have been at the top of my mind lately and definitely impact my thoughts on the market.  For my more familiar readers, you’ll see that I will continue to highlight the articles, videos, clippings, and personal views that shape my thoughts.  For new readers, I hope you appreciate my quest in trying to simplify investments, the economy, and what’s going on with your money.  I’ve often found out that they are related and it’s usually for some very interesting reasons.  First, let’s start off with why I believe the economy is heading in the right direction.  But a word of caution, when things are doing well…don’t be greedy and bank some of those winning profits that got you there.  Here is why the markets are doing so well:

Why Stocks Are at Record Highs

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve communicated their outlook on the American economy through a book known as the Beige Book. Here was what Zacks.com had to say about that data: “Wednesday offered up a trio of positive economic reports. Industrial Production, Housing Market Index, and the Beige Book all painted a picture of a moderately expanding economy with no stumbling blocks in sight.”  Zacks.com

I chose this next article because it shows how things and investments are often linked.  As the housing markets improves think about the things that will benefit as this trend continues think about the simple things around you that are worth investing, hardwood and carpet sellers, home renovations stores, and even copper which is used throughout your home. See this next article on the improving housing market:

Housing

“Copper rose for a third day as improving U.S. economic data fueled expectations that demand from the second-largest user will improve this year. Metal for delivery in three months climbed as much as 0.3 percent to $8,085.25 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and traded at $8,067 at 11:02 a.m. in Shanghai. Copper advanced to a one-week high of $8,130 on Jan. 18.  Housing starts in the U.S. climbed 12.1 percent last month to a 954,000 annual rate, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists, according to Commerce Department data on Jan. 17. A Labor Department report showed fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits.”  This snippet was from Bloomberg.com    Housing Link

I will stop here for now but coming soon will be more articles on themes that shape my investments going forward.

4th Quarter 2012: PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

4th Quarter 2012: 3 PREMIUM STOCK ALERTS

Please contact me directly (email_urbanomics@yahoo.com) to subscribe to this quarter’s premium stock alerts.  Find out what I have my eye on and more importantly when I will be adding these stocks to my portfolio.

4th Quarter 2012 Premium Stock Alerts

My 4^th quarter picks are FINALLY OUT. I’ve been researching these stocks over the course of the last 3 months of 2012 and found 3 stocks with margin of safety and the right catalysts.  Please see the following stocks that were sent to subscribers receiving premium alerts. 

Stock #1: **********

Details

Sector: Technology Industry: Multimedia & Graphics Software Tip Moving around on Mars?

Stock #2: **********

Details

Sector: Financial Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance Tip Nothing says thank you like a lawyer.

Stock #3: **********

Details

Sector: Healthcare Industry: Biotechnology Tip You might confuse this stock for a car.

Its January and my newest picks are finally out. Stocks have moved up nicely so finding value is no easy task. Stay tuned for my stock reveals from 2012.