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Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Let's Go Splunking - Splunk Inc (NASDAQ: SPLK)

I finally get to write about a stock in my line of work -- CYBERSECURITY! So awhile back, I was tracking the DMs of a few friends in my Mansa Musa Network. I don't recall which ones, but it may have been my guys from the A-Billi squad: Mario Gabelli (Gamco Investors) or Jeffrey Smith (Starboard). But long story short is SPLUNK had been underperforming in the stock world. In the regular world it's like the person that has been single for too long and is finally looking for someone to "Put a Ring on It". So, like the horrible reality TV shows of today, they announced they were looking to hook up in a very public way. I saw my buddies mentioning the value in SPLUNK, but I didn't pull the trigger early on. I was tardy and finally decided to pick up some shares ONLY when they finally announced they had found a partner. This partner was the deep pocketed company, called CISCO. They are well known for their enterprise networking and routing equipment. If you don't know what I'm talking about, it's the device most people attach to their home network for internet that allows you to have wireless or WIFI service.

Definitely do not quote me because it has been a while, but I believe the buyout price was set at $157.50. So, what I did was use a well-known trading strategy on wall street. You've heard me refer to it before at the arbitrage approach. This means if I have high confidence that the deal (or hook up) is going to get done, an investor like me can benefit from the "spread" or difference between the price of when the deal is announced and what the final buyout or hook up price is. The risk becomes IF the deal does not get done (if the bride is left at the altar), this situation becomes a train wreck. Is this possible? Yes, it is --- see my posts on Tegna. This deal was thought to be all but certain and then the FTC stepped in and said the deal was harmful for customers across the country. So, you saw a stock go from $17 to nearly $22+ and come all the way back down because the deal was under investigation and ultimately canceled.

Now back to SPLUNK. I wanted to show you all what corporate governance looks like and what ownership looks like from an investor's standpoint. I got an email telling me it's time to vote on whether I think the merger should occur. I've pasted that screenshot here. I hope and believe this means we are one step closer to closing the deal. This is a great example of how hookups can help your portfolio.








Sunday, November 19, 2023

Hunting in Packs - Sam Biglari -- El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

I have had quite a busy year. I've not invested heavily this year because I was concerned about the increase in inflation and the impact to stocks. I think my thesis has generally been correct, but November is trying to upend this trend. What's important about November? Well, this past month aligns with the Federal Reserve signaling they will halt increases in interest rates. This usually bodes well for stocks. So, it may be time to slowly start reinvesting the funds I moved to boring old cash. But some smart money folks in my Mansa Musa Network still are calling for a recession in 2024 or 2025. So, I'll come back to this subject soon but for now I'm TRYING to be a bit cautious with my trades by being less active. The strange thing about investing is that it takes patience. Because I've been busy, I recently learned that a trade that I researched back in August 2023 just filled. How is this possible? Well, I use a strategy that will only execute a stock trade IF my terms are met. I hope this sounds familiar as I often write about navigating through life and trying to ensure that you do things the right way and on your own terms.

Now there is no need to babble any further about what the trade is the trade I found out was recently executed and I only realized it because it was sitting in my inbox "unread".

Hunting in Packs - Sam Biglari -- El Pollo Loco (LOCO)

I got a great hit in my feed about an investor, named Sam Biglari, who is in my Mansa Musa network. I've never hunted for stocks with him, but I've read about the brother as I learned he had a significant impact over Steak 'n Shake. Now Steak 'n Shake is never at the top of my radar and that could have been a reason why Sam made investments into the company years back which was in a dire situation. I heard they turned a profit back in 2021 and much is likely attributed to shrewd moves that led to roughly 90 locations closing. As I wrote this I wondered if Steak 'n Shake was a franchise operator and just learned he is moving to that model as well as turning them into more of a fast-food restaurant to reduce the labor costs of dining in (which is what they were known for).

Sam's name was on my radar back in August when I read he was picking up a large stake in another restaurant chain El Pollo Loco. They say it goes down in the DM, and in stock trading Sam is definitely interested in LOCO. I believe he picked up enough shares in the company that would put his ownership stake at just north of owning 9% of the entire restaurant chain (see what I did their with "stake"). Based on his track record and the fact that he's putting a $33 million dollar investment in, I'd like to nibble here at the stock and trade along. Do I just jump in --- hell no. Like Flo Rida and T-Pain once rapped you gotta go Low Low Low Low, I like to build a margin in by betting on the lower side of where a stock has been trading. I did my research (usually by analyzing the stock's movement in the last year) and set a price I'd like to get in.

Call me crazy, or should I say LOCO, but let's see how our trade does. I like LOCO around the $8 level and for I'll enjoy hunting with Sam.

#HuntinPacks - designates investments I made alongside someone in my network
#MansaMusaMentality

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Investing in You - Your Retirement Savings Bag

I was having a chat with one of my employees and the term 60/40 came up as I have the business news stations on as a requirement for my staff to learn about how business intersects with their everyday life. So, the topic of 60 / 40 came up and he said quite, simply --- "What is 60 / 40?". I immediately responded with the answer that it is a commonly used term for the ratio of your investment of retirement portfolio that should be allocated across stocks (60%) and bonds (40%). He then whipped back who in the world would know that and I kept insisting that it's common knowledge. I then realized once again the purpose of this blog and why I've been writing for the last 20 years. There are so many things that I take as common knowledge but when shared with the world in a simplified way --- it can change minds and lives. 

Saving for Retirement 101

There are no special tricks when it comes to planning for your retirement. It takes balance, discipline, courage, and humility. 

Balance - You must be able to balance your personal finances and position yourself in a way that allows you to save extra money after ALL of your business and personal life expenses are covered. EASIER SAID THAN DONE. This is why I'm not a fan of all of these modern-day financial podcasts. You're telling me to retire but no one is there to guide you along the way. You want my clicks and eye balls but you don't have the true playbook. I'm not going to get into details today but you need to monitor your expenses daily and save from when you first start working or retirement may be difficult or a burden to your loved ones.

Discipline and Courage - If dieting is hard, imagine how hard it is to save money each paycheck for something 10/20/30/40/50 years from now. That takes a type of discipline most people aren't ready for. Find a system that works for you. If your company takes money out of your paycheck then great do that. If you put it in a savings account that you don't touch, perfect. If you need a financial coach or advisor -- they get financially fit. It take courage to do something not everyone is doing.

Humility - I always like to add in the concept of legacy. There is a certain amount of humility that is needed to save not only for yourself but to be humble enough to know that eventually you won't be around and your family or extended family may benefit from a boost. I've heard the phrase the rich get richer, but I truly believe it's the rich pass on wealth from generation to generation which only makes it harder for them to be broke. We speak of a simple term call compounding interest and at some point your funds or the legacy funds you leve behind with accumulate to a level where it truly generates enough income for someone to survive upon. To understand that you may not benefit from this but your future generations may --- take some mind-blowing humility in how life works. There are some truly self-made millionaires and billionaires but if you ever did some research on some of the famous or rich people that you follow --- chances are they inherited that wealth of skillset. 

I would fail if I was asked the question, what book are you reading. I tend to read and save webpages of articles. My phone has over 30 open pages of articles I want to get back to. One of those was about 401(k) accounts. This has become the default type of account for many people who work corporate jobs and usually do not have a pension. Sadly, this isn't available to every person in the world or even every American. The concept behind the account is what we write about here all the time ---  saving money after each paycheck for a rainy day or retirement.

So here is a quick rundown of how to save for retirement:

Save Cash - Save cash after every paycheck and put it in an envelope or savings account. The problem with cash is if you can easily get to it you may easily spend it or like bitcoin --- if the amount gets large and you begin to get unwanted attention it becomes ripe for stealing.

Individual Retirement accounts (IRAs) - Often called traditional IRA, this type of retirement account is tax deductible from your income and if you set it up seamlessly the money comes out and you now have rules imposed on you that penalize you from pulling funds out. There are US government limits on how much money you can make to contribute so do a quick search to see if you qualify. I'm getting old but awhile back the limit was roughly if you're single and make over $75K a year the full contribution begins to scale down. There are limits for other filing types such as married jointly, etc.

Pensions - This is a dinosaur method of saving money for retirement. It was a gem when you had a company of government entity pay for your retirement. You work and they foot the bill for a defined amount of cash you would receive for all those years of service. If you ever get an opportunity to earn a pension with an organization, consider this a huge huge incentive to work for them. As this is a great way to get money during your golden years.

401(k) - The vehicle that took the reins from pension accounts many years ago. The simple way to think about this is you are responsible for your retirement as the money comes directly from your paycheck. To incentive people, the money is tax deductible, so this was effective way to create and increase the wealth gap. If you don't work for a company that offers this type of retirement account or you don't have a good handle of your personal budget --- then you'll be left behind as pensions are a thing of the past. You miss out on reducing your taxes and free money as many companies provide a small match (think donation that tax deductible for companies 👀) into your retirement account.

Roth 401(k) - similar to its sibling, this retirement account is funded with after-tax money. The cool thing is the word "after-tax", so it grows tax-free. It's cousin is the Roth IRA, but you get to stash away way more than the paltry amount allowed for a Roth IRA, and don't forget that match of donation added by companies is still allowed.

I'm planning to continue to learn more about the mega backdoor roth path that were pushed to the headlines by the likes of Peter Thiel and others just a few years ago. It is a way to move after tax contributions into a retirement vehicle that can no longer be taxed. Ironically Peter then used his "retirement account" to invest in companies that went on to earn him over $6 Billion dollars in returns if I recall correctly. We are now in High Earning Not Yet Rich (HENRY) status for those of us that want to explore if their company offers this in their retirement plan. Further, not many of us can use our account to invest in startups the way Peter did. But hey we can all dream so that's what I'll be researching in the future.


Sunday, November 12, 2023

What Am I Investing (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC) | Reading (Story of Henrietta Lacks)

  

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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC)

In the past, I've written about Bitcoin and the fact that it has no intrinsic value. Bitcoin itself does not produce anything of value for you and me in our daily lives and if you need another real-life example --- try gold. These types of assets have a value assigned by a marketplace which consists of buyers and sellers but there is not tangible way to tell which direction the asset's value will increase outside of the marketplace of investors increasing or decreasing their interest in Bitcoin. I guess I could get a brick or bullion of gold and use it as a paper weight, but what do I do with a digital currency? Well --- there is one use case that I continue to argue for, and it comes from my previous experience in banking, fund transfers, and the international payments landscape, however, I will save that use case for the blockchain and NOT Bitcoin for another day.

So if I'm hating on Bitcoin, why was I suddenly interested in a Bitcoin Trust a few months ago? This is peculiar because outside of my brief gambling investments in Coinbase, an exchange or place where you can store and trade your coins, I've never tried to invest or own the digital currency. Here is a breakdown of my thoughts and the trade I made over a month ago:

My Research:
I wonder if I call it research if I was listening to business news in my office, which I do on a daily basis. For the past few years, I've heard two warring factions go back and forth about the legitimacy of Bitcoin: 1) The US Federal Government and 2) The Bitcoin Industry (and in particular the CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong). I thought both had compelling arguments so in the end I stuck my original thesis and that's that I can't make or produce anything with Bitcoin. This underlying point always lets me know that I'm speculating or gambling. I simply HOPE any money on a Bitcoin related assets goes up based on luck, timing, news, etc. 

My investment:
I know these warring sides were at odds on whether the public should be able to invest in Bitcoin in a fund, called an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). An ETF is a simple vehicle that gives everyday investors the ability to invest in Bitcoin in their personal and 401K accounts without having to go out and use crypto exchanges. I hope I haven't lost you hear but the risk of crypto exchanges is you have to really be aware of how to store your passwords to your crypto wallet or you will be at risk of losing your funds to simply forgetting, easy hacking, or in some high-profile cases people have become targets of robberies to obtain their passwords. The fight over an ETF means I can log into my investment account and select the ETF and the ETF takes care of the "security" of coins on behalf of all the investors. So what do 2 sides do when they can't agree -- they sue each other. I have been following the lawsuit and the federal government (SEC) lost it's case against Grayscale Investments. This is an important training moment for everyone --- I can gamble if I know that I'm gambling and willing to lose my investment. I learned awhile back that the GBTC was trading for less that the value of the Bitcoin assets it holds. So, my simple thesis is that the ruling in the court case means the value will hopefully appreciate back to par (or what it's worth) because Grayscale won its case and there will be more "gen pop" interest in Bitcoin if ETFs are allowed.

A little over a month ago, I bought GBTC at $20. I watched it drop in the weeks after and got nervous that I was a fool. But I got busy with work and just decided to hold on as I thought my thesis made sense...at least to me it did. And since then it has caught fire. I'm not a believer in Bitcoin but I do believe that I guessed correctly and early. Since the news broke, other companies have declared they want to offer Bitcoin ETFs and I think this gives the digital currency staying power as it will be easier to own. We'll see how long I hold but for now, I'll take the "W".



Disclosure
- I own GBTC and purchased just over a month ago around $20
- I currently trade Coinbase shares via options; my strategy is I like it low when it dips in the $30s and $40s range and in the past have traded out around $140.

 

Know Your Worth - Henrietta Lacks

Back in August of this year, I read the amazing story of a family that sued a large pharmaceutical company. They claimed the company used their mother's biological cells for research and drug development purposes for profit AND never compensated them properly. This story goes back to the early 60s and seems like a clear slam dunk it today's society where we easily take about brand and profiting from it. So how can something like this happen in America? Well, it could depend on who's cells they were. As a professional in the cybersecurity and privacy space, I found this story sad but also a rallying cry for consent and privacy rights. I would narrate the story here, but I'll post some links for your casual reading. It's a reminder of why I tell everyone to know their worth and what you are consenting to. Remember the name of an African American women, Henrietta Lacks and how her biological cells went on to fuel research, development breakthroughs, and profits for an entire industry. Then think about how so many were enriched by these developments the alpha --- the person who set all this in motion was left behind. 

After reading the amazing story of Henrietta Lacks --- think about your brand, your worth, what you sign, and what you give away. While this is a story that has to do with race, we all can learn from it and build generational wealth by ensuring your consent, your brand, and your likeness are used on YOUR terms. I teach my mentees "The Art of Negotiating" and share that many things in life come down to how you negotiate terms with the person or parties across the table. I am sharing a New York Times article because it came across as a neutral party. Even though John Hopkins university is now honoring Henrietta Lacks with a building, the article acknowledges the university took her cells without consent. It goes on to talk about Thermo Fisher Scientific. For the life of me, I can't understand how a company of good conscience can try to sell "her" cells and "her" intellectual property rights without compensating "her" family.

Link to New York Times article: Henrietta Lacks

#knowyourworth    #theartofnegotiating


Thursday, October 19, 2023

No Such Thing as A Passive Investment - Ask Cardi B

 

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No Such Thing as Passive Investing

Hello Family. I wanted to share a quick post about investing, hell about life. There is no such thing as passive investing. If you've ever heard the phrase there is no free lunch, it is true and you should understand this concept. Everything - I repeat everything in life requires work to achieve the end goal. I can't think of a moment in life where I got something in return that did not require work, some elbow grease, or my blood, sweat or tears.

Quick Examples:

~ Getting a Job - Requires work, training, patience, principles
~ A friendship or relationship - Requires work, good listening, patience, principles
~ Investing - Requires research, training, and patience, principles

So when you hear the phrase "passive investing", realize you're being sold a myth. It's a very high likelihood whoever is preaching that passive investing is attempting to MAKE MONEY OFF YOU! I've always said...if it is free you're the product. Passive investing is a term that was created for tax purposes to describe how active you are in the day-to-day activities of the business. However, my definition of a passive investment is simple. I like to define a passive investment as a scenario where my goal is to earn income by handing over my money to someone else to grow in exchange for ownership in their asset -- such as stock, oil field, or real estate. Please pay attention to these key words -- handing money over in exchange for ownership in SOMEONE ELSE'S business. They do the work, and you get residual or passive income. Look into the DJ Envy debacle. People handed over money to a "business partner", Cesar Pena, who dealt in real estate, and they got swindled. Now DJ Envy is walking back his involvement as he promoted this business partner on his radio show, and they held real estate investment seminars. By my definition, these people that got swindled missed an opportunity to legally define their ownership in a way that protected their investment, performed stronger due diligence, and held this business partner honest by performing annual audits of their investment. In business, I support my cybersecurity client by ensuring their legal agreements are airtight, we prefer to do business with well-established players that can explain the processes in detail and allow us to audit their business independently. Further, we ask that they get audited annually by a reputable independent audit firm and we demand the right to see the report (and we're not just talking financial audits). We need proof about how the business works.

Any asset you purchase and receive income from IS NOT passive in my book. Let me tell you why --- because it requires WORK. What the fake advertisers of passive income investing don't tell you is owning a home requires big time work. When I list my property for rent, I must advertise it, receive calls about the listings, pre-screen tenants (some unrealistic), show the property, determine the price, conduct tenant checks, sign leases, clean the property, collect rent, answer questions, fix repairs, answer questions, and stress over unpaid rent.

Need proof - I just rent an article summarizing Cardi B's response to managing a real estate rental. In short, she said:
"We have tenants that have paid f&cking rent for like 9 months!"
"You know what? Don't even f&cking take them to court because we just be so f&cking tired"
In response to her Airbnb in the Dominican Republic:
"Always something! Please! I don't want properties as a gift"

Need more proof - I just spent a week in the Windy City, Chicago. Speaking with 2 people remind me of why you have to be on your A-Game. Here's what we discussed:
Person 1 -- "My tenant wasn't paying rent, further I later found out they were sub-leasing it out on Airbnb. I had to officially provide then a notice to vacate, changed the locked, and kicked them out."
Person 2 -- "I'm preparing to sell my rental. It's been tough lately and currently dealing with an eviction."

Now do these investments sound passive to you. Cardi just realized what we all understand has investors --it takes work. I spend most of my energy screening well, so I don't have to deal with bad tenants. But life happens, you need good legal documents, a lawyer who can handle evictions and you need to have good communication to keep tenants happy and so you stay compliant with local housing laws. 

I own real estate, businesses, and invest and trust me NOTHING about any of these investments is passive. So, I hope this episode of keepin' it real, helps you realize you have to work hard to reap the rewards.

***Remember to get my posts to your inbox by adding your e-mail address. I just found out my posts have stopped coming to my own inbox...so I've got to look into that.

Sunday, October 01, 2023

What Am I Reading (Mandela) | Watching (Fearless Funds) | Thinking (Equality)

     

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Mandela - Long Walk to Freedom

What has made me "successful"? I like to share with my mentees, a passion for always learning. Strangely, I rarely have the time to read for pleasure and this is something I want to carve out more time for. I love reading but find myself reading and constantly brushing up on topics like economics, business, cybersecurity, and technology. Now that fall is upon us and leaves are falling from the trees, I am excited to sit in the corner of my comfy couch and just let my mind wander in a good book. The book I chose is about Nelson Mandela's life and called "Mandela's Way". I'm currently on a section that describes his inhumane and criminal imprisonment for 27 years because he was advocating for black South Africans. So, to racially intolerant and impatient people that often use cliche statements like "Slavery was 400 years ago, turn the page", I remind them that in the 1980s apartheid was alive and well and a man can be locked up for advocating for equality. I am still early into the book but some words of wisdom I'd like to share from Mandela is his how prison changed him. The book described how prison taught him discipline, focus, and self-control. These are basic characteristics I tell my mentees they need to lead, and the irony is prison was his teacher. So when I get asked what is it like to be a person of color in Corporate America, I often tell people I was molded into a disciplinarian. I am tough on my mentees because the march or should I say 'walk' through Corporate America is bumpy. I currently support many corporations and very happy to add value to their businesses and when I get described as successful -- I'd rather remind others that I'm simply focused, determined, self-controlled, self-aware, and disciplined. 

Fearless Funds

Next, I am keeping an eye on the developments surrounding the Fearless Funds. This story came to my attention because it's honestly in my wheelhouse, my backyard, my lane of economics -- investing, and equity. A few years ago, I was drawn into the establishment of this fund when I was listening to some phenomenal women describe how they wanted help scale companies that are run by women of color. These women are: Arian Simone, Ayana Parsons, and Keshia Knight Pulliam (yes Rudy from the Cosby show). To be honest, when I tuned it I came for Rudy but left impressed with the mission. I've then gone on to read stories or watch these ladies live on CNBC and somehow on one of the morning talk shows which I typically do not tune in to. I was shocked when I learned affirmative action was under assault and then gutted when I heard this fund was under attack as well. I've constantly listened to investment company after company pitch that they are targeted scaling business in nice or underserved areas. Heck there are funds that target companies in Europe, Middle East, and Africa known as the EMEA region, 
Asia Pacific, and Israel. I've listened to funds that are targeting women and veteran owned businesses, so I was in utter shock to hear that someone had an issue with a fund catering to African American women owned business. It's no secret that number of women in business is rising and definitely no secret that Corporate America is specially targeting women as men seem to be trailing academically. The numbers are the numbers. It no secret part of this marketing started with Sheryl Sandberg, a white woman, invoking the phrase "Lean In" to women in business. This entire movement of supporting ALL underrepresented groups was so empowering, I 'leaned in' by mentoring, training, and hiring persons from underrepresented groups in the technology field. So if investments can target LATAM, EMEA, APAC, and women owned businesses, why do we have an issue with leaning into affirmative action and more importantly the Fearless Funds?

No African American Women CEOs Running S&P 500 Companies

Finally, I'll end with my thoughts on Roz Brewer resigning from Walgreens Boots Alliance. She inherited a tough job and I was disappointed that she couldn't get a longer tenure to turn around the organization. This moment represents an interesting time in Corporate America. There were 8 African American CEOs running S&P 500 companies and this number was a record. I always tell people to celebrate good news! But this news should be celebrated with a caveat --- we can still do better. With the resignation of Brewer, this number is now down to 7 and also means there are no black women running our top 500 companies. On the heels of Fearless Funds being sued for investing and advocating for women learning how to grow their companies, I think there is a silver lining. We need to continue to move the culture, our culture to being accustomed to creating, growing, and investing in companies started by the African diaspora. An influx of investments is happening in Africa and tech companies are going there by increasing numbers to tap the economy and cheaper labor. That needs to happen here in the US as there are many communities that need uplifting. I've learned so much by running my own business and enjoy leaning into working with vendors from underrepresented groups. I'm a firm believer we need to build a pipeline of talent that comes from and grows the culture.

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Speculating on Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: APLS)

    

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Second Chances - Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: APLS)


One thing I've learned over the years is to keep it a buck or 100 with myself. Many people lie to themselves and others when it comes to money, relationships, etc. So when I invest, I like to start off with whether I'm truly speculating. Speculation is basically guessing/hoping/wishing that an investment does well WITHOUT any real research or knowledge of the intrinsic value of the stock. This IS clearly the case with interest or investment in Apellis Pharma. I don't claim to know what the stock does or really care. Using a dating analogy, this is truly a fling and it's important for you to separate your long-term investments from your flings. Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: APLS) is the WHO.

Now let's answer the WHAT: I was listening to a stock investor describe this stock and their investment thesis. While his thesis was thin, I like the premise. Around the middle of this year, the American Society of Retina Specialists (“ASRS”) posted a letter that raised some issues with Apellis’s product SYFOVRE. From what I can gather, APLS' trouble began when physicians found cases of eye inflammation in patients treated with the drug SYFOVRE.

Now let's answer the WHEN: Like infidelity going viral on the Gram, the news immediately caused Apellis’s stock to fall an astonishing 38%, to the $52 range. On July 18th, the stock then proceeded to fall another 24% to an even lower level of $40. My math ain't the greatest but this is almost a 60% fall in a matter of a month. A few days later it tanked an additional 15% as everyone jumped off the bandwagon. We are now talking about a stock down roughly 75%.

Now let's answer the WHY: I was gonna reference E-40 and the track "Captain Save a Hoe", but I don't think this investment is about saving or helping someone who doesn't want to help themselves. I know I am I am taking you off track here a bit --- but I think this investment is more about the human ideal of believing in second chances and comebacks. I think there MIGHT a comeback story here as I listened to a stock analyst communicate that the perceived issue may include the type of needle used to administer the drug.

Now let's answer the HOW: Like mining for gold in '49, I am out speculating at a price in the low $30 dollar range. My goal is to mine for minerals in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough. This investment will likely be very short-term play and a chance to see if the stock stops falling or rallies if the news MIGHT be less bad.

Unclear how this will turn out, but you'll be the first to know. I'd rather learn, earn, and take calculated risks than being the product.

#speculatevsinvesting #getyoururbon #learnandearn

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

All Falls Down - Foot Locker (NYSE: FL)

    

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All Falls Down - Foot Locker (NYSE: FL)

You gotta know when to hold them...and more importantly when to fold your hand. Funny, even an experienced investor like me doesn't always follow my own instructions. So, what does that tell you about the power of human nature and trying to change habits?? I "speculated" and bought Foot Locker awhile back and I rarely buy a stock as it is trending up but I was listening to a stock analyst break down the stock and tell me why it was going higher...so I took a bite. My human nature is to hold to see how things played out and it has NOT played out well for Foot Locker. They have had a number of forces working against them. The biggest being that they are one of the largest wholesale distributors for Nike. Well, imagine what happened to the stock when Nike earlier this year (I believe, don't quote me) announced they were reducing their reliance on their wholesale pipeline. Let's just say the stock did not respond well. To rub salt into my sore wounds, I bought FL in the high 50s, after Nike's announcement, we all saw the stock fall to the 30s. I began to plot my exit by making aggressive trades that would release me of my bad ill-timed investment. The only solace I had was I was making a very small profit off of these bets but they would expire, and I was still stuck with my position. I guess complacency crept in and for some silly reason I still found myself holding this stock. This is the epitome of the well-known Wall Street phrase "don't catch a falling knife" or a "dog with fleas". Pick your slogan, I did not follow my own gut and Foot Locker released their earnings report (aka their quarterly health check) and it was not good. A stock that had been trading around the 30s has now dropped below $20 dollars a share. 

The beautiful thing about managing my own money is I have no one to blame...ACCOUNTABILITY. So, this is a post to show you the downs of investing, no one is perfect but a reminder to set your limits. I could have easily just have sold my losing position at 50, 40, 30 but I didn't. So now I will be forced to take a big loss. I will be using this stock to offset my gains this year but my goal like Warren Buffet says is to not lose money. I failed with this investment and the pain will teach me a life lesson.  Cutting bait from things that bring negative frequencies, energy and darkness to your life is a must. I pride myself limiting mistakes and mitigating risks and you should try to do that in your life. The nice thing about stocks is you can set automatic trades that if a stock drops below a certain level it would executed. I guess my pride got the best of me...human nature.

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Why Sports Clubs are the New 'it' Investment

I'm not sure when I first invested in Manchester United but if you look back at my blog history it's most likely around 2016. It was a simple post about investing in an election year and go figure a Clinton and a Trump were running against each other. I may not have shared at the time, but I was investing alongside a good friend of mine from my MANSA MUSA network, billionaire Ron Baron (cue Lil Weezy - A Billi) Baron was yapping away in a CNBC interview and he laid out a very compelling thesis of the investment. I like simple and I like math and it was BOTH.

But let's rewind for a bit. For those of you that don't know what sport I'm talking about, I'm talking about original football. What we here in America call soccer but the world knows as the sport of football. Possibly where a single last name can be uttered and the ENTIRE world knows exactly who you are talking about: Pele, Lionel Messi, Diego Maradona, Critiano Ronaldo, Zinedine Zidane, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Andres Iniesta, Didier Drogba, Thierry Henry and the list goes on and on.

I don't remember the full talking points but it went something like this:

- The Los Angeles Dodgers at the time were worth something like $2 Billion dollars and we're talking baseball

- Machester United was worth less than that 

- The viewership for each game rivals the equivalent of a US Football Superbowl event

- Machester United is a top four club in the English Premier League so this was like getting shares in the Chicago Bulls (Jordan Years), Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, or Golden State Warriors (Curry Years) on discount! 

- In 2015/2016, he foresaw what we are experiencing today. The decline of cable means the Live Sports is a game changer for television viewership. 

Here were some of my previous posts:

2016 Post on Manchester United


2019 Post - Finding-value-in-Media-and-Sports-Stocks


In 2016, I was snapping up sharing at around $13/14 dollars a share. And the rumors continue to circulate that the Glazer family may sell this franchise and the sharks are lining up to buy. At over a mind boggling 7 Billion pounds, there is word a deal may be in sight. If I told you to be patient and wait a few years and your money would double --- could you do it? If I told you to avoid the flash and do the math --- would you really do it?

I purchase or hookup of this stock could enter it into my MansMusa Hall of Fame. Thanks to my guy Ron Baron for the simple advice and in this particular case a reminder of why sometimes we hunt in packs.

#MansaMusaHOF   - designates this stock pick was retired in my Hall of Fame
#ABilliSquad -  Billionaire investors from the Wall Street community that make up my squad. Ya Dig
#HuntinPacks - designates investments I made alongside someone in my network

#MansaMusaMentality


Thursday, August 10, 2023

Savage over AVID Technology (NASDAQ: AVID) | IT Goes Down in the DM [Versace, Kors, Jimmy Choo]


So, I typed a text to a girl I used to see
Sayin that I chose this cutie pie with whom I wanna be
And I apologize if this message gets you down
Then I CC'd every girl that I'd see see round town and
I hate to see y'all frown but I'd rather see her smiling
Wetness all around me, true, but I'm no island
Peninsula maybe, makes no sense I know, crazy
Give up all this pussy cat thats in my lap no lookin back

Song: Int'l Players Anthem (I Choose You)

Artist: UGK featuring Outkast
Produced by DJ Paul and Juicy J

SAVAGE over AVID Technology (Nasdaq: AVID)

Avid (NASDAQ: AVID), just got Chose. Like Beyonce said 'Put a Ring On It" and AVID announced that it will be acquired or hook up with a company linked to STG in an all-cash deal.  Avid shareholders will receive $27.05 in cash and this makes one of the quickest wins I've ever had investing in stocks. Not the quickest though. I'll post my trades but I have to get back to it.

See My Post on AVID Technology


It Goes Down in the DM --- Capri Holdings (NYSE: CPRI)

I believe in love and positive vibes, energy, and frequencies. I still hold a few shares of Tapestry Inc., which most of us know as the brand Coach. Tapestry also own Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman. Am I going high fashion? No, it doesn't bring me much satisfaction in life but for many is sells music and is aspirational. So, its no surprise that Tapestry slid into the DMs of Capri Holdings who owns high fashion names like Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo. Cue the Migos -- Versace Versace Versace! Capri just got Chose and clearly love is in the air and they will will be hooking up at roughly $57 a share.

I have been out of the markets for over a year and I'm finally seeing an atmosphere I likely likely. I still think we are headed for turbulent waters in the stock market. So I like to look for stocks that like to hook up as this presents opportunities that are lower on my risk scale. I also am starting to see stocks getting hammered after what I believe is a fake run up recently, likely due to the AI craze. Robolox was down 20% + after earnings, Magnite was falling, Beyond Meat was down big, and the cyber stocks have "Put it On Da Floor" recently. You have to be very very careful in this environment so you're not catching a falling knife? WTF does that even mean, I don't really know but in regular people speak you don't to invest in someone or in the case of stocks something that will keep letting you down (cue a Mary J. Blige heartbreak song).

#IGottheHookUp #AvidTechnology #CapriHoldings #ItGoesDownInTheDM 

Saturday, August 05, 2023

Liquor and Leverage? -- How A Famous Investor Lost $17 Billion So Far This Year

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans


How to Open My First Brokerage Account

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LIQUOR AND LEVERAGE

“I’ve seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage – leverage being borrowed money. You really don’t need leverage in this world much. If you’re smart, you’re going to make a lot of money without borrowing.” — Warren Buffett

I wanted to share a brief article on Carl Icahn and how he's lost $17 Billion, yes with a "B" dollar in roughly 3 months. For a brief backdrop, you need to understand the players:

Carl Icahn is an investor who is known as a Corporate Raider. I'm not sure if that term is completely fair because there is a common term used in the investment community which is used to describe the INTENT of investment firms who accumulate a large amount of shares in a company. You must formally file a document that indicates if you plan to be a "PASSIVE" investor or an "ACTIVITST " investor. Icahn is the typically an activist investor. I guess activist investors also have an offshoot branch of their party called Corporate Raiders. Change can be positive and of course it can be negative. The Corporate Raider typically forces change in a company that some may see as a negative force. An example may be buying up large shares in a company, then firing a majority of the staff to quickly reap the profits and then leaving. The character most often associated with this label is Gordon Gekko from my favorite movie Wall Street. 

I wanted to share an article and a link on the negative impacts of leverage. That means borrowing money to invest in something. Over the years, I written about the perils of borrowing money. It can be a very dangerous tool to use. But it is so commonplace we forget that many of us use credit cards, mortgages, payday loans, buy now pay later schemes to fund our lifestyles. I call these items instant gratification. I believe there are rules to leverage and for example, I use mortgages to purchase my homes/investment properties. But I am also aware of my sources of income that would be used to buy said properties and homes. If those sources dried up...I'm sorry to say it's time to sell or give that home back to the bank. I would do it in a heartbeat. As for other types of credit or leverage, I stay clear of them. Here are a few examples:

Credit Cards - Yes, I use them, but I pay the balance in full each month. A future post on why then I even use credit cards at all coming soon.

Borrowing from Friends - I don't do it because it could end a great friendship.

Borrowing Against a Home - I don't do it because now, if I took out a loan against my home, now I've leverage my home as collateral. This is a possible way to lose my home and I definitely wouldn't do this against my primary home.

Now these are just my personal thoughts and yes, they are strict, but like Buffett I'm just not a fan of leverage and for the past five years liquor either (except Tequila or Cognac on special occasions).

It turns out Icahn has been using leverage as he runs his investment firm as a public company trading on the US stock exchange. Please read the first article which exposes his leverage:

1) Hindenburg Research Work on Carl Icahn's Company: Hindenburg Research - ICAHN

Key Takeaways that risks of Debt, Leverage, and Conflicts of Interest:

a) Debt: Hindenburg alleged that Icahn's firm has sell new shares (called units) to distribute new dividend payouts, which they called an unsustainable economic structure. Why might this be unsustainable?? Well Icahn's firm has not performed well dating back to 2014, losing 53% during this time. 
    Don't Believe me Just Watch: Since 2014 Icahn lost $4.9 billion in free cash flow BUT the firm continued to pay cash dividends of almost $1.5 billion during this period. And these types of results or returns have continued since then. 
    Urbanomics Lesson: Do get into too deep to debt, it only leads to hard times. Balance in life and     balance in your finances

b) Stop Playing Game 'Hoe': Hindenburg then noted that Icahn's portfolio valuations are inflated. This might be considered financial shenanigans and using these valuations to pay dividends or get other loans could come back to haunt you. 

    Don't Believe me Just Watch: Hindenburg found a few situations where Icahn's firm valued companies they invested in on their books MORE than than the entire worth of the company itself. 

  Urbanomics Lesson: Don't fake the funk. Stop claiming your car is worth $XX when you've had it for     5 years. It loses value, you can't sell it for what you bought it (usually). Next using these false                 valuations to get more leverage could squeeze you.

a) Leverage: Hindenburg also alleged that Icahn's firm obtained credit debt between the years 2017 and 2021. Debt was super cheap during this time. Well like interest only loans, these debs will need to be refinanced and now rates are much higher. Nothing is wrong with refinancing again if you use my motto of knowing your sources of income. But it was alleged that Icahn is using his own shares in the company as collateral to obtain loans.

    Don't Believe me Just Watch: 60% of his Icahn's shared are being used to support the loans. This type of leverage is a risky because if the price of the stock declines, the banks can ask for him to fork over those shares AND even come up with more money. I assume the banks would want to sell those shares right away to recoup their loan investments. Icahn has not disclosed his collateral agreements used for these loans and quite SIMPLY that could be risky for people owning the stick.
    Urbanomics Lesson: While Icahn may understand the risk, using leverage and not knowing the     details could bring pain to investors in this stock.

Since this article came out in MAY, the stock in Icahn's firm as plummeted and he personally has lost over $17 Billion dollars. Don't cry for him as he is still worth over $7 Billion, but its a great case study on how to be careful and why I'm not a fan of debt and leverage.

#liquorandleverage