Invest in Your Health Pt. 1 | Prism - Esusu | Prism - Nas, KD and Coinbase

  

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

Investing in Your Health

I miscalculated and dropped the ball on one of my most important pillars, the "Health" pillar. First is accountability, so I ultimately blame myself. I'll be honest, my calculation was I'm young...I can rip and run the mean streets of Corporate America and gracefully exit the rat race around the age of 35. I tell people in life there are always trade-offs and opportunity costs and I gambled that a former 3 sport H.S. athlete, gym rat, college recreation gym user, and even early adult life YMCA member would be able to stave off my "Corporate 15". That's my take on the Freshman 15 you gain in college. I travelled as a consultant for many years and our typical lifestyle was eating out daily and back to the hotel. Back then not every hotel had a gym and to make matters worse, we worked hard. I often traded relaxing, meditating, exercising for working, drinking, and eating out with coworkers. When I came home, I lived in a fancy apartment complex that had an indoor basketball court/gym, well populated exercise room, and an indoor movie theater. But I was rarely home. As a consultant I once got the designation of being a road warrior --- on the road for over a 100 days within the year. 

Then came life in the office. Being a person a color, I adopted the model of getting into the office early and staying late. I was even chastised by fellow co-workers for delaying my participation in their weekly basketball games...I didn't want the boss to think I was a slacker. So I rarely left early but I participated to manage the image of me not wanting to be a team player. My solution I joined the weekly game but came into work early so I could leave on-time to make the games even though my peers rarely changed their schedules. Back then I lived by the office, which instead of being located in the great city of Chicago was out a good ways in the suburbs. Closer to some of the swankiest and highest priced zip codes in the Chicagoland area. This was another of those secrets we deal with in Corporate America. Many office parks are near where the well heeled live and rarely reside in the our city centers and hardly ever near communities of color. To put it in perspective, we had a good swatch of our workers who commuted from Wisconsin...yep you heard me right. But head down, work hard, I'm a team player and long trips to the city on the weekends to live it up or as my pals in the United Kingdom say to get some culture. My apartment had a room  sparsely populated with a machine or two and I wasn't much of an outside walker or runner. To hit my financial goals, I made a trade-off and didn't join the big gym clubs popular in the suburbs a little over a decade ago. I used the tiny workout room in my budget apartment and drove everywhere I went...classic suburban living.  But stop, who's to blame...ME. I am big on accountability and this is a good example of trade-offs and I needed more balance. Notice one thing that I didn't deploy in my toolkit that should have been...a "MINIMUM BASELINE". In cybersecurity we use this minimum baseline to set a security standard for all of the information systems under our control and by not consistently working out and getting annual physicals --- I didn't know my own baseline. 

More to come on Investing in Your Health in Pt 2. 

How to Buy Stocks

So knowing when to sell stocks OR anything in life is arguably the hardest thing to do. When should you sell your house, stocks, car?? The second hardest question to answer is how should I find stocks to buy. So let me take you back in the day, I used learned the following things when I first got started: 

1) I read everything I could about Warren Buffett and realize to invest you need to know your investing personality. More to come on this but I often find your real life personality mirrors your investing.

High Risk/Reward personalities might like the flash of buying stocks like Ferrari (RACE), Tesla (TSLA), Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy (LVMH), or trading high flyers, day trading, and high risk high reward penny stocks.

Techy personalities may migrate to FAANG stocks. Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG) - parent company of Google...the G in FAANG.

Corporate personalities may like Ford (F), Goldman Sachs (GS), Procter & Gamble (PG), Microsoft (MS), Caterpillar (CAT) --- companies many of my peers wanted to work for when coming out school.

Cost Conscious personalities may migrate to companies meet analytical thresholds. We call that value investing. Sometimes the names are boring but they are steady and pay a dividend (which is the equivalent of getting a stimulus check every quarter): General Electric (GE), Real Estate Companies, Oil Companies, and Utilities like electric, cable, phone, and retail companies.

Loner personalities may gravitate to companies that don't get a lot of hype, quirky, are getting bullied, etc. What comes to mind here are clothing company Skechers (SKX), weed company Tilray, and Collectors Universe (CLCT) a collectibles company that grades things like baseball cards.  Then there a bullied companies (often for good reason) which fall out of favor on Wall Street for messing up: 

Tesla - because Elon Musk was being targeted for his tweeting and 420 comments, 

Lululemon - when their stock got beat up because their CEO appeared to mock curvy women

Gamestop - attacked by short sellers

I believe most people will gravitate to one or two categories. Take me for example, I resonated with Warren Buffett and have read tons of books and articles about the man. He comes across as a cost conscious value oriented guy and that defined me -- simple, no frills, no gimmicks, give me value type of style. But I also am a contrarian and tend to go against the crowd. So when I'm not looking for value stocks, I often look for reasons why the carbon industry was so against Tesla, redemption in Lululemon (after getting rid of their CEO), Gamestop providing a need for many communities that may not always have internet to download games, Disney and other retail companies getting beat down during COVID-19 lockdowns. I like the quintessential story of the getting knocked down and getting back up. That story of opportunity was my family's story. My father and mother, hard working immigrants, came to America worked some of the least flashy jobs but got it done. My father mocked for his West African accent and Ph.D degree and being told you're overqualified. I often look to where cancel culture strikes in the stock market and I bet that if at first you don't succeed, dust yourself off and try again. 

Prism - A look at African + African American Investing

1) Esusu - A company with African co-founders makes me proud: 

Why I'm Watching: 

I like to challenge myself. When I cut the cord, I lost the ability to watch CNBC. So I challenged myself to simply listen to the broadcast on Tune-In Radio. When I heard them announce a company called Esusu, my head turned. I had heard this termed used so many times in my African community. It means to pool money together and usually each week or so the group shares the pool money with one member. So it creates the lottery feeling of getting a big payment once every "x" month once it's finally your turn to receive the payout. Well I listened to Abbey Wemimo, co-founder of Esusu, talk about how he helped to start the firm. I even reached out on LinkedIn looking to connect and as an accredited investor I hope to invest and fund companies like his in the future.

2) The Coinbase Remix - How African-American Rappers and Athletes are Diversifying 

Why I'm Reading: 

For those of us that follow the markets, we were BLOWN away by the opening day value of Coinbase a digital exchange where you can buy, sell, and securely store cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. They became a public company recently and for us regular folk that is similar to baby being born. They were a private company and once they became public the baby popped out and but this baby was valued @ roughly $100 Billion dollars. So I know that many investors were dancing because they cashed in big time. Some of those investors I was proud to say were African-Americans like rapper Nas (Nasir Jones) who you all know I have in my Top 5 rappers of all time and National Basketball player Kevin Durant. Nas reported earned a $100 Million payout from this investment word on the street is KD cleaned up big time as well. I am happy to see these entertainers diversifying their investments...you will not rap and play ball forever. Very proud of these young brothers.

Nas and Kevin Durant Invest in Coinbase

When to Buy Stocks -- Demand Value | Don't Follow the Crowd

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Coming soon is a post on Health -- The Body. You have to invest and know the data about your body. Like many people of color, I get nervous about hospitals and doctors. Thanks to my corporate job, I was exposed to annual exams and blood tests. Unfortunately, when I made the shift to being an entrepreneur I didn't keep up with my annual exams. And it may be costing me...stay tuned for a future post on Health and how that impacts your Wealth. 

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

When to Buy A Stock

Enough talking -- pictures and videos are worth a thousand words, so I plan to move into the digital age here soon. I'm an old soul in a millennial body with a 9-5 job and a side hustle empowering underrepresented groups to find employment in the technology field (and it's cash flowing almost better than my 9-5 job!). Oh by the way, I own real estate (with tenants) and trying to grow that portfolio. So be patient as I plan to do a video series that will help you invest in yourself and #getthebag. My best asset class is my stock portfolio and yes, it allowed me to semi-retire at 37. I've documented how I've done it here on my blog (mistakes and all) for the last 15+ years. Don't believe people that say it's easy --- Trust But Verify. If they are NOT teaching you how to do it yourself --- Then You Are The Product. #facts

Leading up to my video series, which you've been asking for, here is an example of how I hunt for stocks. Sometimes I rely on my network of friends in my #MansaMusa network. They've helped me build my mini empire and I appreciate all of them as they've support me in different ways. When I got started I had a few #whentobuy rules. Last week, I shared Rule #2 - Follow Da Leader | Whale Watch | Griot Rule. Warren Buffett was great to read about, learn from, and occasionally follow but he is one smart brotha...he often requests and usually get approved the right to withhold some of his biggest trades. Why? So he can slowly build a large position and limit Griot watchers like me from following him. There are federal rules which require Warren to disclose his trades and he doesn't want his stock investments to skyrocket right away (from copycats) before he's built his large stake. I may not be a Griot yet, but like my father I'm a like to preach and teach. So I can't give everything away...I know my worth but I USUALLY try to make investments that align with my goals, risk tolerance, and personality. Two hints at what I mean and then I get to a few stocks on my subscriber list and one reveal.

Wanting Value:

  Hint 1: For years, I've written about the fact that I won't by a candy bar if I can't get it for 50c. For the longest time, that's what a Reese's or Snickers cost growing up. Yes, I believe in inflation but if you don't sell it to me for 50c or a Kings size bar for $1.00...you're not getting my money. Life is full of transactions and negotiations...I choose when I want to participate. 

A Difference of Opinion:

Hint 2: I personally like to go against the grain and as many have said...I like to walk my own path and don't follow the crowd too often. So if I see a stock getting dissed (Ex: Search for my Tesla or Lululemon trades and read my Elon Musk / Kanye West posts from years before), I tend to want to know more about the situation than just go with the crowd. Group think is very dangerous and is a primary reason why racism and oppression is what it is. Human nature is to seek the protection and worthiness from a group or gang...but it can lead to perverse outcomes - like when gangs have no rules and kids get killed, or when people with authority protect the bad apples in their group, or when people claim to have faith in something higher but the angry mob can lynch (skin color) or rape (young woman) because society or the current cultural climate doesn't communicate to them what they are doing is wrong. And then I hear the narrative, don't try and cancel those things people did back because it was a different time. I have one one --- Do Unto Others as You Would Have Them Do Unto You. I don't think in life you can ever "overlook" lynching, hate, rape, bullying ...because everyone was doing it. So When I invest...if most are doing it...I run the other way. Need one last example, we all celebrate Dr. Martin Luther King Jr and his approach to non-violence today. But in the 1960s, the FBI had him high on the list of public enemy #1s. How do you square that away...in my book non-violence teaching does not = terrorist (or communist for that matter) but they spent years watching and taping his every moves. So I take the same approach to stocks, if everyone jumps off the bandwagon I BUY:

- Elon Musk is an idiot for $420 tweet -- nice try, I invest in a genius and Tesla

- Kanye West is mentally crazy -- He's not the president, my mentor, impactful to my daily life...but IMO he seems to be savvy at music and business...oh by the way he's now worth over 5-6 Billion after a well executed clothing partnership with Gap. I don't have to agree with him to know he's going to appreciate in value: 

URBANOMICS: TESLA - MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED INVESTMENT

- Lulemon is finished after the then idiot CEO made harsh comments about plus-sized women and leggings -- He's a bum get rid of him and people still will buy ridiculously price leggings, yoga pants and clearly Yeezy's. 

URBANOMICS: Value Investing - Look4Leaders / FollowUrGut

#GettheBag - Premium Subscriber Alerts

Here are a few stocks from this Quarter's Subscriber List Premium Alerts:

• I***** - Beaten down technology company, that may get back up after being knocked back down
• M**** - With everyone jumping on the hot new thing...the old reliable has been thrown away. It may to soon to ask an old star to retire when the team isn't ready for a transition
• A**** - This company stumbled and decided not to IPO. But the SPAC route seemed like an ideal fit. No one's paying attention but the re-opening trade could have us running around like Mad Men
• F**** - Good ole fashion insurance was left out in the cold, but whoa interest rates are rising and everyone is jumping on banks, insurance and other interest rate sensitive stocks. 

Reveal - ViacomCBS (VIAC)

• V**** - Television and Advertising has been left for dead as streaming is the future. A quote taken from Barron's: "An analyst wrote that the recent run-up “doesn’t fully discount risks” from pressure on V****’s own legacy cable-network business, nor the risks to content-licensing revenue from the crumbling of conventional cable channels."

Haters gonna hate. Our Reveal is we own ViacomCBS (VIAC), recently the best performing stock in the S&P 500. Stay tuned for a "Details" writeup...but wondering when did I blog about ViacomCBS, Sept 2020:

URBANOMICS: How Being Risk Focused Allows Me to Play Defense + Offense

If you want to follow the crowd, by all means go ahead. However, I'd rather walk my own path. Reach out if you want to subscribe and monitor the trades I'm making in my portfolio. 

Also, guess the stock and I'll reveal if you're right.

A 21 Savage Look Into – Business Income, Risk, & Expenses

A Conclusion to Side Hustle 101 Series 

Income

Music has always played a big part in people’s life.  Reading through my blog over the years, you will see that it is always top of mind for me. So when I drop some knowledge on the subject of income I could reference:

·         21 Savage – A Lot

·         YG – Big Bank

·         Jay Z – Big Pimpin

But I’d rather hit you with a simple rule I learned I learned from Warren Buffett: “Never Lose Money”. His second rule: “Remember Rule #1”. J  This rule is so crucial I use it as a baseline for my other pillars now:

·         “Never Lose Faith”

·         “Never Stop Learning”

·         “Stay Healthy”

Make sure your business and investments make more money than they lose and life becomes a lot easier. Stress over risks to your business and try to get the best return on your investment when you have expenses.

Risk Management

I spend most of my time stressing over things that will derail my pillars in life and my investments. If I’m eating unhealthy, why not cut back on sugar (easier said than done). If I want to reduce stress, why not focus on prioritization, time management, prayer, and meditation. You get the picture, but many people don’t think about risks UNTIL well they hit them in the face. A few examples:

·         Boeing – Recent crashes that have taken hundreds of lives may possibly be linked to not updating airplane software and a lack of pilot training.

·         Equifax – How ironic is it that the company responsible for our credit scores, history, and maintaining so much of our personal data is hacked ( A close second: Ashley Madison’s website hack and they promote discreet relationships for married people)

·         Lululemon – How smart was it for an athleisure company executive to mock curvier women who wear their clothes when that is your primary customer base

·         Netflix – How about when you do nothing wrong like Netflix, but you have the new “risk” that Apple’s new TV streaming service is now dubbed the ‘Netflix killer’

Well I think you get the point…consider all risks and focus on the biggest ones…your company depends on it.

Expenses

This is no one’s favor subject so let’s make it fun by keeping it simple. There is a reason why so many businesses were started in garages…for the free rent J So stop trying to play the part until you actually have money rolling in. Can you work out of your home or garage and forgo that pricey co-working space.? Do you have expensive software when you have one customer? I saw a show where a small business was going to trade shows every year and losing money (why go?).  Don’t get me started on a company car!!. I constantly evaluate: Office Location vs Co-Working vs Home-based; Software vs Spreadsheet; and Personal Car vs Company Car. Grow your business and make sure that next expense helps increase your bottom-line in the future.   After two good years, I decided to pick up the fully loaded BMW X5 e40 company car (I still have my personal SUV because that's for personal use). In the words of J. Cole on 21 Savage’s “A Lot” à ‘How Many Faking They Streams…I Can See Behind the Smoke and Mirrors People ain’t as Big as They Seem”.   Don't fake your streams and get a car you and your business can't support. Stay humble and grow your business smartly. Peace

Pics of my Company Car (and yes I plug in to get roughly 600 mpg...call me cheap)

How to Invest in a Clinton / Trump Election Year...

First, I'll address where I've been since my posts have dried up for about a year. My answer is: "Still Right Here".  As we all know for the last few years, people continue to have to do more with less and that extends to companies. With unemployment pretty low for most big companies, they have to squeeze more out of every employee.  Good old fashion hustlin', and I got the memo and have been very busy at work and in my personal life.  The other reason, I haven't written much is because as a country and in the stock market things appear to be in a holding pattern.  I had a feeling a little over a year ago that the stock market was reaching its tops and I took my ball and went home.  For my portfolio, that meant I decided to sell some of the stocks that had been big winners. If you need a reminder flash back to this post: http://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2014/08/marketsno-longer-starting-from-bottom.html

I never like selling but if life you can't get too greedy so I parted ways with names like:

• Allergan - maker of botox (Allergan was acquired Actavis for a nice price) :)
• Lululemon - athletic wear (bought when it was in the low 40s, after some of their pants were showing too much skin and when the CEO ranted he didn't want bigger sized women wearing the clothes, and waited for them to correct their missteps)
• Caterpillar - big equipment maker (bought early and they fell, then I acquired more shares over time through patient dividend investments and they rallied above my purchase prices...just sold in the last few months for a small gain)
• NovaGold - gold miner (bought over 3 years ago and they dropped by over $50 percent; my old mentor reminded me if the fundamentals make sense buy when they are on discount. At roughly $3 I bought more and sold a good portion of it this year at just under $7. 

I felt a little over a year ago we were closing in on the top and I was just a bit early, but by planning then I was starting to set myself up for what's to come. A market near its highs, a Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump election year, and other surprises like the UK leaving the European Union have kept the markets a little uneasy. So I'll tell you what I've been quietly doing as I've sold my winners over the last few months:

Buying Top-Tier Companies (when they reached Low Prices):

• Apple (bought in the low $90s)
• Verizon (bought in the low $40s)
• Manchester United (bought b/w $13-14 range)
• Gilead (bought b/w $73-74) 
• Alibaba (low $80s)

These bigger names anchor my portfolio and should grow in good times and fingers crossed, the bad times. They all pay a dividend so they will pay you to wait :)

I then decided to begin thinking about how I wanted to thin my portfolio out to and hold higher quality names. I've been making hard decisions and here are some of the mistakes I think I have made:

• Gold - NovaGold (I still own a small portion and should have sold it all when it hit its highs)
• Oil - There is too much oil around the world and oil stocks are NOT going anywhere anytime soon. I own (British Petroleum(BP), Oasis Petroleum, Cheniere Energy) and the only good thing is the latter two, I don't hold big positions. BP pays a nice dividend so I use that to buy more shares and love that this is a long-term cornerstone of my portfolio at these levels.
• Non-Dividend Stocks, Not Growing - Lastly, I have a few stocks that don't pay a dividend!! I've held them for quite some time and they are just sitting there taking up space. For me names like:  St. Joe's Company (real estate), Nuance Communication (voice services like Siri), Hertz, and a few others just are not bringing much to the table. So I'll likely be parting ways with these names in the future.

I'm reminding you to go Vote, go Cubs, for me...go focus on higher quality names in this crazy election year.

~ Get Ur Urb On

Value Investing - Look4Leaders / FollowUrGut

Here is an article where I get to make a mental note about a stock I own, why I bought it and when I thought it was a good time to ring the register (sell some of my stocks).  Doing a quick search on my blog, gives me a quick peek into when I first took notice of Lululemon. I like to think of myself as a VALUE INVESTOR. Just like in life, I sleep better knowing I'm getting a deal on my bills, that new TV, and hopefully when I invest. Value investing can be tough because if you are a person that loves to follow the crowd then this investing style can make you nervous. I recently watched the movie Draft Day, and to quickly summarize the movie: The consensus #1 player did not get selected with the first draft pick and shortly thereafter the other teams began to panic and also decided to not draft this player and he remained available until the 7th pick.  So it made me think about the following:

1) Was he really the best player and team #7 got a huge bargain, while teams #1-6 got scared and made a huge mistake
OR
2) He was never the best player and everyone had really bad info, making him the consensus player

In short, these are the types of stocks I try to search for: "A potential number one draft pick that is falling in value". Lululemon was that out of favor company that caught my eye. I won't revisit everything here but my mental notes are to remember how I found out about the company and is there a legit reason for the fall from number 1.

First Found Out - Friends wearing the clothes, carrying the bags, Yoga craze, and me laughing at their high price tag ($100)
Fall From #1 - The company began a freefall after the CEO made disrespectful comments indicating that Yoga pants were not for women above a certain size. Then the next black eye came from a huge manufacturing mishap that caused the pants to be more see-through than women had bargained for.

The hardest thing then was not buying this amazing stock at full price ($70+) because they were the #1 pick...the favorite Yoga pants for many even with a little bad news. Then soon after, fear kicked in and I didn't want to buy the stock as it dropped under $45 a share. Right!?? I told myself this company was a huge mistake. Stop...I got myself to relax took a few deep breathes and tried to understand could they eventually overcome these things and remain a world class leader. I thought so and began to buy the stock from $37-42. This past few weeks it made sense to finally sell most of the shares after 1+ years because they have come full circle and I'd like to walk away and not be greedy.

I sold 75% of my stake and I'm on to the next hidden gem. #Value, #Patience, #Look4Leaders, #FollowUrGut

Sears / Kmart - Blue Light Special Losses its Flicker

In a constant search for deals, you have to be watchful of a company that is down and out versus a company that is down for the count. As you've read in the previous posts, I have not been able to find very many beaten up companies and the economy continues to steadily improve. My favorite has been Lululemon (LULU) and I stuck with it through the rough patch. The good is they delivered great news during their last earnings announcement and rose over 10% after that announcement!  Now we are on to the next potential candidate.

Sears Holding (SHLD)

Back in the day Sears was one of those places I remember going to for all of my needs. Then came the competition from Walmart, Target, and the INTERNET. Sears even bought Kmart (big blue) and that still has not turned this big company around. My quick assessment is Sears is big and burly and has not attracted me with lower prices or easy store locations to navigate to. So for me, they often lose out to Amazon, Target, and my local grocery store.  Sears has been on my radar as a company that is definitely down and out. The latest news is now they will be borrowing money from their CEO and hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert. They will borrow roughly $400 Million dollars which is abnormal and smells a bit like desperation. I think other investors may agree with my assessment as Sears stock has fallen from somewhere in the $40 dollar range to $27!!!

Sears is not only down but likely knocked out for awhile. The one thing I will watch closely is the CEO. Why?... because smart people usually don't throw good money after bad. Eddie Lampert may be trying to save face by continuously trying to revive a sinking ship...OR he may just have one more trick up his sleeve.

URB Assessment:
I don't shop here, the prices still are the lowest, and the stores have not been remodeled in quite awhile. I am curious if it can get any worse so a VERY SMALL investment could be stored away for a rainy day. But I don't think this company is a hidden value waiting to be unleashed. More like a Boxer than needs a new trainer or recognized its time to retire.

Markets...No Longer 'Starting From the Bottom'

I have not written a post in a while and I guess I fall into the age old Wall Street saying: "Sell in May and Go Away".  This phrase is well known in the investment community and is used to describe the the summer season where investors like myself find better uses of their time than keeping up with the stocks or the Kardashians.  I have kept fairly busy and have been distracted by a nice summer of sun, sports, and home projects.  Being busy has reduced my investment activities and I guess that I was 'busy in May...and went away'.  So the question is are you missing out on in the markets, this summer??  As you know, I always start with my view of how I believe the economy is performing. Here are some of the things I've observed: 

Work and Mobility Increasing
- People continue to work more
- More Job Openings / Recruiters Calling
- People Accepting New Jobs
- More people moving to new homes/ in-state/ across state lines

Frugal Country
- Pay is increasing slowly upwards
- People are looking to continue to reduce their expenses,
- Find affordable housing and living
- Everyone is looking for deals

Controlled Splurges
- More Staycations (Stay at home vacations - theme parks, bed and breakfasts, etc) Also 1 tank gas trips
- People waiting for great deals on vacations
- Tech Purchases: Phones/tablets, touch devices - People want exciting devices that make their lives easier and considered cool

What this means to your portfolio:

The stock market is often a leading indicator and has been doing VERY well for the last few years. To put it into perspective...I heard a stat that I found amazing: At one point stocks, specifically the SP 500 had 75 days without a correction recently. This means things have rebounded very well and astonishingly there hasn't been much of a pause.  So using my best Drake impersonation...this market is definitely NOT "Starting from the Bottom". Do I have some grand plan...Yes and NO.

My Investment Plan
- Don't do anything grand :)
- Take notes from Drake: This market started at the bottom (hit bottom) in 2009 and 2010 and now we are here at market highs. I have kept it simple...Starting last quarter whenever the Dow Jones enters into the 17000 territory I take the time to SELL some of my big winners at the top. At this point, I don't mind holding a bit of cash, buy something paying a dividend, and or wait until stocks I like drop.
- Activate the Activist Investors: When I sell some winners, I'm buying stocks that may rise quickly because they are being bought by other companies or are being pushed to do something by big time investors like: Carl Icahn, John Paulson, or myself, The Oracle of Hyde Park. Here is my quick list:

TIME WARNER CABLE 
ALLERGAN 
LULULEMON
HERTZ

Federal Reserve Announces Taper / World Improving? / Stocks on My Mind

FED ANNOUNCES a $10 BILLION DOLLAR TAPER
The Federal Reserve has been pumping billions and billions of dollars into the US economy. Today was the first step by the Fed to say that the US economy, their patient, appears to be in steady recovery mode.  The recovery appears to be steady enough that they are starting to reduce the amount of medicine they have been giving to the patient...in the form of the stimulus they have been pumping into the economy.  This was a pivotal moment in the market and the reaction so far is very positive.  Investors believe that the Fed's view that the US is in recovery mode because stocks have catapulted higher. Stay tuned and let's look back in the next 3 to 12 months from now and see if we feel more jobs being created, houses being bought, and you and your friends spending more.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101279385

ARE ECONOMIES IMPROVING AROUND THE WORLD?
I am consistently the naysayer, as I am always looking for risks that impact the markets. But I must admit the news that I have seen recently is VERY positive.  The unemployment rates are coming down in both the US and I saw a story today about the rate in the UK and this is very positive for growth around the world.  More people working means companies are hiring and people have more money to spend in the future.


STOCKS/THEMES ON MY MIND
Lululemon (LULU)- This company continues to stumble and has recently fired it's CEO for some very insensitive comments towards women.  Not the brightest move considering women are their core target group. But I also know that the YOGA and health movement is serious and people want to look the part when they get fit. I believe they are trading around roughly $59 dollars.

Caterpillar (CAT) - A company that had been in the stuck in the mud and the stock price hasn't been doing well. But they are very much impacted by global growth and with things improving this stock may make a nice move up.  Stock price has ranged from $84 to $87. I believe it trades at roughly $87 today.

Stocks Which Support Online Businesses: International Paper (IP), FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS)
I realize that more than 75% of my purchase habits happen online. I now buy my home goods online and have had dish soap, laundry detergent, door handles, and a host of other products delivered to my house. They always come in a brown corrugated box (International Paper) and are delivered primarily by UPS when I purchase items from Amazon.  I've recently heard that groceries can be bought online very soon...see Amazon "PANTRY".  I think more boxes and deliveries are coming to both your house and mine.

Health Care: I listened to a very interesting story on National Public Radio the other day.  For the first time, health care insurers are taking major steps to advertise their products in response to the Affordable Care Act.  I don't know many things but I do know 1 thing...when companies are spending billions of dollars to advertise it's because they see an opportunity to grow and gain market share.  Insurance is a business that seems to experience very little turnover once they've signed up a customer.  If I am an example, I have had the same auto and health care provider for as long as I can think. There will be a number of winners due to the expansion of the Affordable Care Act. Investors have already realized this a number of these stocks are up significantly this year...but the biggest change to the health care sections in decades will cause some serious gains for years to come.

Who to Watch / Company Watch - UPDATE

Who to Watch
My how times have changed!  In the past, young investors like myself would have wanted to follow in the footsteps of corporate raiders, mutual fund managers, and high profile investors.  One well known corporate raider is Carl Icahn, he and other corporate raiders were legendary for taking over companies or agitating boards for significant change. There was also those legendary mutual fund managers that made people in my parent's generation a lot of money by investing through their fund. Some well know names here are Peter Lynch (Fidelity), Bill Miller (Legg Mason), Bruce Berkowitz (Fairholme), and many others.  The last group of high profile investors are guys like Warren Buffet and George Soros.  Today some of the most well known money makers are in the hedge fund industry.    A small difference from the previous investors in the past, are hedge funds try to make money when markets are up or down by betting on and against the performance of stocks.  Here is a run-down of some of my favorite hedge fund managers:

• Steve Cohen, David Einhorn, John Paulson, Seth Klarman, 
• Bill Ackman, David Nierenberg, Monish Pabrai, Ray Dalio

JOBS, Company Watch - JOE, BKS, LULU, NFLX

January 9, 2012

JOBS BY THE NUMBERS

If you weren’t paying attention, some important data was released this week.  The US Labor Department released the number of jobs that were gained/lost in the previous month.  Drum roll…companies hired 200,000 employees in December and the famous unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%.  If you aren’t familiar with the numbers this is POSITIVE in my book.  The reasons are: (1) More people have been getting jobs and this has been consistently happening since last summer, (2) The jobs are being added across small, medium, and large companies, and (3) Jobless claims (i.e., people filing unemployment claims) are falling.  In case you were following along at home, the number usually has to be over 125,000 to signify that jobs are being added. 

We want more jobs, I want more jobs, and we should expect that are federal, state, schools, and citizens will do and try everything to continue to get this number to a level that allows our country to grow and people to work consistently.  So please when we watch debates or listen to the evening news keep that in perspective that without jobs a lot of other things seem pretty trivial.

COMPANY WATCH – St. Joes Company (NYSE: JOE) / Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS)

St. Joes Company – This stock is a great example of trusting your instinct.  I like the prospects of taking a contrarian, or against the grain, stand on some investments.  JOE was one of those companies that I thought is a better investment than owning home builders.  My thesis is you get to own land and that has an intrinsic value that should hold its worth in economic downturns like the ones we’ve suffered.  Well to make a long story short, I believe I had the right thesis however I never expected there was going to be such a dispute as to what the true value of the land is.  David Einhorn made a compelling case as to why the value of the land St. Joes held wasn’t worth what St. Joes was claiming and the stock has fallen sharply.  WELL, finally there appears to be some upside to the stock.  I’ve noticed that some analysts have upgraded their outlook based on future growth prospects.  The development of land in the Panama City area, the recent development of an international airport, and recent cost cutting measures are signs that they might be moving in the right direction. 

Price: $14.67

                                          

Barnes and Noble – I am a sucker for stocks on the decline and Barnes and Noble is showing up on my radar. The other day is dropped roughly 20% on news that they were changing their future outlook lower.  That is never good and investors let them have it.  BKS even mentioned making changes such as spinning of their NOOK business. 

Price: $11.65 

COMPANY WATCH  - Lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU)  / Netfilx (NASDAQ: NFLX)  

Lululemon – I’ve had my eye on LULU for quite some time now.  This stock has been a high flier and it you don’t know they make money by selling $100 dollar yoga pants.  Yoga, it’s all the craze for people with money and to show of that dough they buy expensive pants to get their work out on.  Well LULU had come under some pressure and the stock dropped a bit.  I am a stock hater here! And because I like things on the cheap I want LULU to fall further before I begin buying.  I may not be able to get that opportunity because LULU seems to go one direction and that’s up.

 Price: $53.44

Netflix – Quick note, I trashed it on the way down and I love a good rebound.  NFLX, at the lows of $70 is attractive to me.  It’s rebounded strongly and they recently talked about expanding further internationally.

Price: $98.18