Know Your Worth - Grow Your Business and Stock Portfolio

COULD YOU DEFINE YOUR WORTH

The National Football League (NFL) season is finally upon us. I never get a chance to say I told you in my line of work, risk management and cybersecurity, but at least here I can. Does anyone find is striking that the NBA setup something similar to what I described back in March and their league is thriving...a locked down bubble. As a risk management professional, I get called crazy or told I'm worrying about nothing but there is usually always solutions for my customers to reduce their risk...they just have to determine if the cost is worth it. 

The NFL has had a chance to watch the success of the NBA and they've decided some stadiums will have NO fans and others will be at roughly 25% capacity because the game must go on...but I ask at what cost. I remind you that without an NBA bubble like scenario the National Hockey League had to start and stop their league play multiple times and ended up moving their games up to good ole Canada --- a safer environment for the players health. Major League Baseball has had a number of instances where outbreaks have happened in various clubhouses as it harder to create a bubble with a much larger player base. One thing is for sure, the games will go on because there is toooooo much money to be made. Need more proof, look at the Big 10, a college conference for teams mainly in the midwestern part of the US. They assessed the risk and canceled the fall football season. The backlash has been swift --- cities, fans who are bored, and even some players are less concerned about the outbreaks on campus and more worried about Ohio State's revenue impact to the city of Columbus or the University of Michigan projected revenue loss. It would be funny if it weren't true, but I'm afraid it is --- many schools require players to sign a waiver and that's where I come in. Risk Manager to the rescue -- a waiver ensures that if any of the players get sick or die, the player (or their family) cannot hold the schools liable for their health concerns. So I ask you, how much would it take for you to put your health at risk and play a season knowing you could get sick??

Would you be like college football players --- and play for free?

If it came down to it, do you truly know your worth? That is the question I wanted to pose to my readers today. When I was a young lad coming out of college, I had these rigid set of principles...imagine that. I used to tell anyone that listened or that worked for me --- you need to test the job market about every 3 years. It's easy to get complacent and fall in love with a routine of "working" everyday while others are hustling, learning new skills and challenging companies to pay them what they are worth. There are good reasons to no rock the boat and stay put...but what's the harm in Mr. Market telling you what you are valued. I got complacent for a few years and got into a zone where your employer convinces you that it needs you soooo badly things would go wrong if you ever took vacation and terribly wrong if I ever left. Well I'm here to tell you that companies move on and time moves on...no one person is that valuable and if you are you better be sure they are paying you a king's ransom. So I reminded myself a few years ago that Mr. Market determines my value and my employer simply needs to determine if they agree whether I'm worth it...it's not personal. Many people are quietly cheering this statement at home but if I asked you whether sports players are overpaid...everyone is quick to say yes. haha I wonder if it's because the majority of athletes in some of our biggest sports leagues are minorities...people of color. 

If I asked you to work for NO pay because I'll give you pay for your training courses, would you take it?  Probably NOT. Then why do people get up in arms at college players making billions of dollars for college sports but not making a dime...even off of their likeness.

When Cowboy fans and fans in general are in an uproar about Dak Prescott rejecting a contract extension worth roughly $33 Million a year --- he's called a overpaid crybaby. LeBron is told to shut up and play ball. But Patrick Mahomes and just the other day Deshaun Watson earned contracts that far exceed Dak's offered pay package so fans should you shut up and cheer him on (oh wait that's an oxymoron). I wonder how much of it has to do with the fact that fans usually complain when the player is a person of color, a black man making big time bucks?  I find it odd that no one, I mean NO ONE ever complains at the owner. The owner of most sports teams are white, worth billions of dollars and can afford to pay one man that amount WHY --- because they are bringing in way more that that in revenue. Many owners are business persons and investors like myself...just with a lot more commas in their bank account. My investment buddies are a who's who of owning sports teams:

Investor David Tepper (Carolina Panthers), 

Businessman Tilman Fertitti (Houston Rockets)

Investor Mark Lasry (Milwaukee Buckets)

Businessman and Investor Mark Cuban (Dallas Mavericks)

WHO PAY'S YOUR FAVORITY CELEBRITY'S BILL'S?

Lucky for you the good folks over at FIVETHIRTYEIGHT asked this question awhile back too. Aside from Shahid Khan (the Pakistani-born owner of the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguar football team) and Michael Jordan (who I believe recently sold a majority or all of his stake in the Charlotte Hornets),  ALL other owners across the 3 major sports leagues are white.

NFL Ownership: 97% White

MBL Ownership: 98% White

NBA Ownership: 98% White

Source: The Institute For Diversity And Ethics in Sport

FINDING VALUE - INVESTING IN YOURSELF (GROW YOUR BUSINESS AND PORTFOLIO)

I write this post because my startup cybersecurity firm just signed it's first client and hired and placed my first employee. I couldn't be more proud in trying to accomplish my mission to place talented people of color in corporate IT jobs. I was laughed at along the way, low balled, and even towards the end the companies almost tried to cut me out of my own deal. However; I am a risk manager and with contracts and an knowledge of what I'm worth and what my team is worth --- we won't settle and we didn't. I did it all without a company website because my skillset is the product. I set a target to get my first employee and engagement where I wasn't directly involved or managing the project and determined the profits would pay for my website and official launch. Know your worth, when they laugh work harder, and always be a triple threat player. I have a 9-5 job, manage a growing startup, and actively invest in the stock and real estate market. 3 Threat give me flexibility to shoot, pass, or drive to the basket. Here are my stocks expiring within 1 month, all profitable except one and the one trade that is down is actually good. I own that stock and when that trade is down, it means my stock is up. Know your Worth: ALIBABA (BABA), ROKU (ROKU), NOVAGOLD (NG) , FACEBOOK (FB), JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF (GDXJ), DRAFTKINGS (DKNG), KOHLS (KSS), CRONOS (CRON) - Note: Most of these trades w/ exception of Facebook, Cronos and GDXJ were recently added in the last few weeks and are profitable. 

 

The Virus Goes Viral --- Why Stocks are in a Bear Market

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
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The Virus Goes Viral

This week the stock market was rocked by round the clock news of a SARS like coronavirus, COVID-19. The Dow fell 12 percent this week alone, which I believe is the biggest one week drop since the dreaded financial crisis. With over 3 Trillion Dollars worth of value erased in US Stocks, I get asked what in the world do I think is going on and what am I doing during a period like this. This very topic came up today when I spoke with my dear friend who happens to be one of the biggest mortgage brokers in the country.

When asked for my thoughts -- I told him plainly the Virus has gone Viral. And what I meant by this is, in today's hyperconnected world we are getting peppered with news updates, pictures, and opinions all day. I truly believe the virus has gone viral and we are seeing the market reacting to real-time tweets, posts, and texts as news comes out instantly. Gone are the days where we all had to tune into CNN or wait until our local news came on to try and decipher what was happening a world away. Over the past few weeks, I've seen constant pictures of cruise ships (not able to dock), masked people in coffee shops, and empty streets and restaurants. So my mind instantly goes to my favorite End of the World shows like the "The Last Ship" or "The Walking Dead" which similarly displayed quarantined ships and empty streets, respectively. The fact is as a county and world we may be more worried and nervous that ever before (thanks to Ring doorbells) and a polarized political environment. That uneasiness and mistrust, today more than ever, may be causing this natural response that this is the Big One. I am NOT arguing for less information but our futures will be scarier when you can watch a live counter of people getting sick and dying across the world.  

First, we should be amazed at how rapidly people now move across the world. When we had SARS back in 2003, the world was less mobile and while that virus hit with a fury -- it impacted less people. COVID-19 is a similar genetic strain to SARS but is clearly more powerful (virulent) and contagious. In a more mobile world, when one part catches a cold the rest of the world will catch that cold or at least sneeze. Similar to the flu and cold season, those most at risk clearly appear to be the elderly and people with underlying health conditions. 

So people need to hear from those in charge to ensure that a plan is in place for their health and well-being. This is a critical response to all those real-time updates we get and the apocalypse shows I watch. If I got a real-time update of flu infections and deaths each season, I would never leave the house (let alone a homicide update for most metro cities).  I wasn't paying attention back then  -- but does anyone know what we did as a country when SARS or Avian (Bird) flu impacted the world?  I don't so my point is don't panic.  Hospitals already restrict youth during flu season so our next best steps are: a) protecting our elderly    b) reducing close contact    c) washing our hands   d) hoping for warmer weather

With markets being at ALL TIME highs, it is a very rationale to be scared but don't panic and definitely don't SELL everything.

What Should Be Sold ---

Segments of the markets involving in travel, leisure, hospitality, dining, and retail. In addition, businesses with significant exposure to Chinese customers or China's supply chain. They will be sold off because we just don't know how long this disease will last. Also, due to today's hyperconnected world, NO ONE wants to be the company that didn't close its doors soon enough, cancel flights fast enough, or take the necessary precautions to keep customers safe. So businesses in this segment will take a hit.

What Should Be NOT BE SOLD ---

I think your healthcare, internet, gold and gold mining stocks should not be sold. I also think you need to try and protect your portfolio. Protect Protect Protect - you'll see that's why I've own gold related stocks like Novagold since 2008-9. Oddly enough that was the same time I advised my mortgage broker to add Gold to his retirement portfolio. I recently wrote about a healthcare stock: Gilead, a company helping to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. And I want to share with you an investment vehicle called the Volatility Index. Known as the VIX, this offers some protection when the stock market gets very volatile. I bought shares in the 4th quarter of 2019 (a little early) when I thought the market was getting to high -- I purchased shares around the $15 a share range. I'm glad to have insurance protection when the market feels like it is falling off of a cliff.

I own VIXY which is a volatility index fund. When things seem too good to be true, BE FEARFUL, and buy protection. Roughly 10% of my portfolio is being offset by VIXY which gives me some piece of mind on down days.

Try and protect yourself in advance of market downturns and then during the downturns we go bargain hunting. I picked up the following stocks in the last two days:

• Facebook (internet) 
• Match Group Inc (internet) - Owners of dating sites: Match, Tinder, PlentyOfFish, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Twoo, OurTime, BlackPeopleMeet, and LoveScout24
• Teladoc (healthcare) - Virtual/Video conferencing healthcare services with your doctor and the future of a simple doctor's visit
• Uber - While ridership will decline, Uber Eats may pick up, I think it will be temporary and for a stock that fell from $42 to $29... an opportunity exists

My assumption is most people will be swiping right, wanting an expert doctor opinion or eating in. Me, I'll be #investandchill

2019 Year In Review - Mask On...Mask Off

Thank you Future - Mask On...Mask Off. Represent...I Gotta Represent

Mask Off - I am currently closing the books for 2019 and reflecting on a year of ups and downs.  Personally, I was rocked to my core this year as I lost my father. It was a deafening experience because he was an amazing father, husband, educator, community and spiritual leader. When it happened, many of us were stunned, discombobulated and grasping for balance.  

I use the word numb because I arguably experienced my best personal year I have ever had…and didn’t care.  I was very fortunate from a very early age my father taught me how to be strong, independent, and prepared to lead the family when that time came. So that is what I – what we all have tried to do, with him in mind.  Finally, this year marked my second daughter and 3 nephews being introduced to the world and my family and they are a big source of joy as we recover from our loss. 

Mask On - I get my strength from my family and push on to make a difference in this short life we are given.  I keep my eye on the prize and financial independence, being spiritually guided, and mentally woke is a powerful combination that NOBODY can touch.  So mask on and back to the lecture at hand: I ran the numbers and I turned in a pretty solid year. At roughly 23%, my personal portfolio that I manage did fairly well and IMO I didn't take on a ton of risk as I targeted value stocks.  Some are discarded gems, others I did detailed research and just saw a different story and narrative than many others.  I kind of like going against the grain...following the herd is NOT in my DNA ask Kendrick Lamar. .

Remember you all can do this. Need proof, the broader market turned in a similar performance and an event better performance was found in a technology based strategy like simply buying the NASDAQ index this year (to the tune of roughly 35% this year). I've got big goals this upcoming year and I will introduce them later but here are the remainder of the best picks I uncovered for 2019:

• Symantec / NortonLifeLock (SYMC)- Value Play; Part of the Business was bought out gave us a nice pop 
• Telsa (TLSA) - Value Play Doubled in 2019 
• Sprint (S) - Played options very well (now letting the profits ride on T-Mobile deal approval will be biggest gain if hits)
• Okta (Okta) - Cybersecurity trade that I sold too early but you live and learn
• Allergan (AGN) - A beaten down value play that finally payed off; This company make BOTOX and will be bought out by Abbvie
• Arconic (ARNC) - Pickup up some shares about the $19-21 range; value play that was dogged by litigation from a high-rise fire in London; Sold to early but it's all good
• Humana (HUM) - This stock ran up after a few big issues failed to damper healthcare stocks: 1) the Trump administration came down lightly on fines for not disclosing their negotiated rates ( a supposed game changer to bring down drug prices) and 2) Elizabeth Warren scaling back her Medicare for all plans
• Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - Pleasant Surprise; Stumbled on to an under performing value stock that is under pressure to change CEOs and deliver better results
• Cronos (CRON) - Surprised to see this one was so profitable; traded the Marijuana stock a few times. I have big hopes and so does the alcoholic beverage industry as they took a major stake in this company. One of the few companies I still hold a stake in
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) - Cybersecurity IPO stock that focuses on protecting your devices; They got absolutely crushed after a bag earnings and I was nimble and played this stock very well. I will be back in CrowdStrike this year
• JD. COM (JD) - My patience was rewarded; I calculated that America and China need each other. Trump removing the China tariffs caused this stock to take off from the mid 20s and now its in the mid 30s. This is a core holding for the future 

I want to wish you a very Happy New Years. Many blessings to you all and don't be afraid to dream but do it rationally, help others, take prudent risk, and take care of those who are good to you.

Here is my gift to you the rest of the best:

• VIX Index - I traded in and out of the VIXY; I'm waiting for volatility to return in 2020
• Zscaler - Plagued by earning's misses; I traded ZS in 2019 and expect to be more active in ZS and the Cyber stocks in 2020 as expectations and acquisitions are ripe for the picking
• Kohls - Between dividends and a small profitable trade, Kohls made my list but then turned into my achilles heel; I fell for their splashy venture with Amazon which was probably to cover for a bad earnings call to come. They got crushed and will need to bounce back  
• Century Link - No big notes here. They stabilized around the $10 range and it was a nice win
• Ceasar's - A good example winning and lose. I bet on Ceasars in 2018. Was happy when a deal was announced and thought I won big. No deal came and my trade blew up. I put the trade back on and benefited when El Dorado decided to buy Ceasars...so only a small gain comes from all this work.
• AVEO Pharmaceuticals - I had a small win but AVEO continues to have disappointing drug trials  
• RedHat - bought out by IBM wish I had a bigger position
• Novagold - Gold is back and being helped by Brexit and the recent attacks in the Mid East
• Anadarko - Bought out by Occidental Petroleum; I beat my buddy Buffet to this trade as he funded Occidental's purchase
• Facebook - Hard to fight the beast. They known everything and are selling it...ohh marketing it to anyone with cash
• Foot Locker - Hurt by the China issues, severely under-performed but Nike's resurgence may bode well for them in 2020
• Newell Brands - A value play that I think has bottomed. Let's see if we can trade this stock on the way up 

Clearly 2019's song of the year is HOT by Young Thug featuring Gunna and Travis Scott...

 my job is to keep it HOT in 2020...look out

Finding Value in Media and Sports Stocks

Time to get back to the basics. I've been laying the ground work for how to build a successful business, but it's time to get back to the basics of investing.  Remember, investing is something every person should consider once you pay down your debts and establish a rainy day fund (savings account).  In my perfect social media world, people would go viral for:

- Paying off their school debt

- Putting off unnecessary purchases

- Improving their credit score

- Hitting their retirement goals 

While I personally turn off the tweets and so-called influencers, I do not deny the irrational impulses of the masses. Everyone wants instant gratification, personalization, and to think they are influencing someone else's opinion.  So I try to keep it simple by recognizing the trend: "Content Is King".  Some of my recent investments over the last few years have been media AND social media stocks:

Social Media - Twitter (TWTR); Facebook (FB); Snap (SNAP)

Media - Time Warner (Acquired); Time Warner Cable (I think Acquired), AMC Theatres (AMC); ROKU (ROKU); Twenty First Century Fox (Recently Acquired); Verizon (VZ); Disney (obtained through FOXA shares)

Sports - Manchester United

My investing logic is simple. With cutting the cord coming and the fact that I DVR record and stream most of my television viewing due to my busy schedule, I want to own the content and pipes.  My influencers love Netflix, Apple TV and Roku and I buy the content that they are paying top dollar for to watch on all their devices.  Because everyone is giving themselves (free content) away for free on Instagram, Snapchat, Facebook, and YouTube for cheap...my investments are focusing on content specifically Sports.  Why!! Because Sports is one of the last few things that people WANT to watch live.  Take March Madness, NFL, NBA, and the English Premier League. This is amazing content bringing lots of viewers to the media stocks listed above. The games and players are the real influencers and it actually drives more business.  You do not have to believe me, just look at the how your favorite politician has flipped in the last decade. Very soon, a majority of states will allow legal sports betting to cash in on the trend.  If you do don't know now ya know: Fan Duel, Draft Kings are partnering with major sports leagues to get everyone betting Billions of dollars.  What am I watching next:

Media - CBS (CBS), Liberty Media, Madison Square Garden

Sports Betting - Ceasars Entertainment (CZR)  

The value is there for good content. I owned and watched Twenty First Century Fox's stock skyrocket as multiple companies fought to buy it out and Disney eventually paid top dollar. Then I inherited a new company with AMAZING content Disney. Every movie my daughter watches 50 times over are Disney movies. And sports is the Top Dog! 

URB Prediction: So I think Ceasars and their big bets on online gambling are good for business and they will be bought out in the next few years. If the NBA, NFL, and MLB were smart...they would form a consortium and purchase Ceasars outright.

How I Slay Life, One Hack at a Time…

Hello everyone! If you have ever read one of my posts you know I often write about the 4 Pillars of maintaining a strong balanced core to your life.  The purpose of a strong core is staying Physically, Financially, Mentally, and Spiritually fit.  I like “fit”, “woke” will do, and if you enjoyed the movie series “The Matrix”, try “unplugged from the matrix”.  Many of us claim we are woke but I’m not always so sure. Why?? Because life is constantly throwing things at us to weaken our core (e.g., tough jobs, debt, car issues, risk, etc.).  Then, there are self-inflicted things keeping us from truly being unplugged, fit, or woke: Procrastination and Lack of Accountability.

I joke that “The Matrix” is like the mainstream machine to get you to always consume, constantly share (reality TV style), and amazingly disregard facts and reason in lieu of opinions. Let’s take a look:

Need to Consume:

Every day is now a “National Day” to consume. Let’s see how many I can rattle off in seconds: Valentine’s, Halloween, Thanksgiving (which is really Black Friday…extended to Cyber Monday), Amazon Day, Christmas, and Alibaba even has Single’s Day (a made up event).  Goal: We help the Matrix break their sales record, while they help you break your wallet.  And it accomplishes one other key thing…it helps keep everyone hooked into the Matrix. Your friends, family, kids, spouse, co-workers, neighbors all try to outspend, over decorate, and stress over all of it. 

Ready for change, try these hacks:

Urbanomics Hack of the Century – I epically took down the need consume by setting a budget. This cool hack forces me to plan for things. Built into that budget is a buffer. Yes, for all those amazing “National” taco, donut, bosses, kids, and pet days.  Once I get to my budget limit, I stop. So commercials, spam emails, and all those amazing deals in the mail just don’t faze me because I slay them all with a few words: “Not In My Budget”.

How to Slay Digital Anxiety – My longtime hack of the digital era is a few cool things that most have not heard of. I simply do not take my phone most places. It has a really cool feature called voice mail. Next, I realized every beep is not so I initiated an premium upgrade (hackers special) that does not require me to respond to everything instantly.  I (whips the upgrade) pick moments during the day when I thumb through my texts, alerts, vmail, and e-mail and respond accordingly.

Epic Takedown of Apps – To truly stay woke, fit, and unplugged I eviscerate all mobile apps. Yes, I throw shade on every app, no exceptions. I simply do a few things that keep my life simple and focused.  I do not download apps unless there is an extreme necessity. For example, when I switched phones recently I did not add an app until a dire situation presents itself. It is strange to see all those lonely apps still waiting to be downloaded, but I’ll pass. And you’ll love this ultimate hack: I’ve never downloaded Facebook, LinkedIn, Snapchat, Instagram…whoever.  Two reasons: By forcing myself to login directly, I limit my screen time.  I’ll conclude my article with the 2^nd reason: I’m the product.  Whenever someone allows you to use something for free, WE are the “product”.  Which means The Matrix is getting way more value out of it than we are.  I recall from my educational binge watching of “Mad Men” that advertising companies are paid to know your age, preferences, views, and buying habits.  When the companies above finally decide to pay me accordingly for the information I provide them maybe I’ll download their app or use it more. I don’t need them…they need m and we just need to negotiate what I’m worth. Ironically, I have always kept a contact history, used job boards, and saved my photos through different methods over the years. It had me thinking back when peopled used rolodexes if they people were addicted to flipping through it and liking things. Or if they did the rationale thing…picked up the phone and had conversation, planned a trip, or closed it and had fun.  

Full disclaimer: I've invested in Facebook, Snapchat and Twitter multiple times this year. (Note: LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft and Instagram is owned by Facebook). I would be a FOOL to deny the mainstream draw to these platforms but I wonder about the unintended consequences. I'm sporadically only on FB and LI and try to disclose as little as possible. And until the model is figured out (note: regulation is coming soon), I'll gladly find ways to make money off of these platforms, while their users (who should be called talent or broadcasters) give their worth away for free.  And because I mainly post about investments, I don't think Snap, owner of Snapchat, is a good investment long term because I don't know what they do. Ads alienate their users and I would pick up the phone if I really wanted my message to disappear.

Facebook: Internet Rolodex

LinkedIn – Job Board / Staffing Agency

Snapchat - ???

Twitter - News?

Instagram – Hard Drive for Pics  

New Tech Titans, Double Dips, & Don't Label Me...

New Tech Titans

The technology field is definitely active as social networking, gaming, movies, and music continue to seamlessly weave themselves into our daily lives. It's time to refresh your memory on the new tech titans on the block.  First off, Facebook leads the charge with their recent announcement of new features: (1) group chat, (2) new designs, & (3) video chat. Many people can't wait for the day this stock IPO's or goes public.  Next is Google, who is offering Google+ a competing social network site and chomping at the bit for more targeted advertising.  And then there is the simplicity of Netflix.  Netflix is now streaming throughout many homes on a regular basis and they are betting that you will stick around even as they raise prices.  Sorry to break the news but Netflix prices are going up for everyone...will you pay up?

Other hot technology firms are Linked In, Pandora, Zynga, Square, and others which are changing the way we interact, watch movies, and listen to music. Then we have Groupon which could be potentially be valued ar roughly $20 Billion dollars when they IPO, or become a public company.  The question often asked is “Do You Remember The Technology Bubble?” and is it happening all over again. I do believe that some of these firms are legit, but I think a few won't be as popular as they are today. Stay tuned for further posts as I tackle which technology stocks will survive the digital renaissance.

Double Dip??

The economy may be suffering from a really bad hangover that was worse than we originally thought.  Financial stocks, housing stocks, and high levels of consumer debt make you wonder if we've learned anything at all from the 2008 crisis.  I just don't have the feeling that we are out of the woods yet and I've been cautious for quite awhile.  I don't think I am alone anymore as there have been rumbling about more stimulus...is there Quantitative Easing on the horizon, well the Fed might think so.  Can you say QE3