Stock Ticker

Stocks use a Ticker or an abbreviation to allow you to quickly find them. Facebook (Ticker: FB), Apple (Ticker: AAPL), Netflix (Ticker: NFLX), Alphabet (we know it as Google, Ticker: GOOG), Microsoft (Ticker: MSFT). Ticker Tape Provided by Macroaxis

Search URBANOMICS

Showing posts with label Warren Buffet. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warren Buffet. Show all posts

Saturday, March 21, 2020

Q&A Session --- Questions About A Coronavirus Recession


Yo, why is Jadakiss as hard as it gets?
Why is the industry designed to keep the artist in debt?

Why you don't stack instead of trying to be fly?
Why is ratting at an all time high?

Lyrics from Jadakiss --- Why ft. Anthony Hamilton

Q&A with the Lyrics from Why
Let me help my guy Jada out really quick:

Jada Question: Why is the industry designed to keep the artist in debt?

Urbanomics Response: Well Jada the bigger question is why was your song written in 2009 but this question is still applicable even today. Ripped from the headlines: Taylor Swift, Mase, Megan thee Stallion --- all recently complained about contract dealings in the past year. You heard me hear say Jay Z and Master P gave you the blueprint -- independent. Funny you were referring to the music industry but ironically this seems to apply to most every industry I can think off. Let's take the NFL and NBA players who constantly are asking for a fairer share of the total profits as live sports is cable's last hope. We see players as spoiled, rich and entitled but do you find it interesting that someone pays their salary AND no one (main street, public, suburbs, politicians, etc.) ever calls the OWNERS spoiled, rich and entitled? How about the fact that college athletes in America can make universities AND coaches millions of dollars but the players don’t get paid…let alone their are no where near their fair share OR market value of the contribution they made to the profits of the college sports industry. I just saw that disgraced college basketball coach Rick Pitino, who once had a $55 Million dollar at the university of Louisville, is now allowed to coach again at Iona…even though he was the coach during the school’s biggest scandal which uncovered players getting perks and incentives (under the table) to come and play for the school. Did all the players on his team become millionaires during that run -- funny in the business world we have a fancy word called profit sharing. Maybe the NCAA didn't get that economic memo.

Jada Question: Why you don't stack instead of trying to be fly?

Urbanomics Response: Let me help those who are a little challenged by our smooth language --- to stack means to save money. Trying to be fly --- insert: spoiled, rich, and entitled.

 Jada we haven’t even talked about the “economic” industry --- is this designed to keep the aritist public in DEBT? The public continues to take on debt at an alarming rate AND from a young age: Student Loans, Credit Cards, Auto/Car Loans, Home Loans. If the system is working and fair, why is every article about students swimming in debt. Every piece of mail is another company asking me to take my already high credit card debt and “consolidate” it with more debt they are willing to offer me. Wait there’s more --- I can take debt out to purchase my brand new fancy car and of course my home which has more seats and rooms than people in it, respectively.  The US is one of the few developed to offer a 30 year mortgage. What a beautiful concept --- let’s give you debt for something you spend most of your adult life paying for. With interest IF you ever held your home until paid off you likely spent more 40+ years paying for that home. But similar to the whiny NFL players who we complain about --- who are the owners that allow people to take debt out like this?? I could rattle off every company but what’s the point --- the real question is why is main street not taught money, budgeting, debt, savings, retirement, wills, insurance, and how healthcare works?
  
Real Questions I Received this Week
Q: Do you like leverage and is now the time to lever up?

A: For those of you out there, leverage is borrowing debt (money you don’t own) and using it for purposes like investing in assets (home, stocks, etc.). I do not think now or ever is truly the time to borrow money.  Something I learned from Warren Buffet is during tough times, when tide comes in you’ll see who was swimming naked. What he is referring to is debt, and the tide is an economic or financial crisis. When it hits, swimming naked means you are OVER LEVERED --- you have too many debts that cannot be paid.  My motto since my dad required I get a job at 14 was that I would never take on true debt. I sacrificed for the greater good and went to a state school so the fees would be less and I earned scholarships to help with the cost. Was it enough – no I used debt (my credit card) to get me through the lean moments which were usually the last few months of each year. But only because I made a promise that every penny of my summer job would go to paying off that debt.  I treat debt like the Lannisters in the Game of Thrones --- don’t get into debt but when you do always plan to pay if off. While I pay my debts on time, it's because I want to have the privilege to access credit (mainly during bad times to benefit on fire sales). Public Service Announcement: If you are in too deep, see if your lendor/creditor will work with you to forgive some of the debt...do not be ashamed many people do this and many corporations go through bankruptcy all the time (it's easier for businesses).

A: Now is not the time to borrow more debt because the markets are too turbulent and more downside is to come. I do think you should have Money/Capital/Savings set aside to take advantage of the upside when we do get through this crisis. But those funds should rarely ever be someone else’s money --- then you forgot one our cardinal rules --- never take on debt or you may be the one they find swimming naked. What someone giveth, they will taketh and they usually come knocking only when times are bad. Don’t confuse leverage or debt with equity.  For example, I plan to invest during the downturn but I would rather put my rainy day savings to use OR my equity in my home.  If I lose my own money, I have no one to blame but myself. Losing someone else’s money may mean a lot of sleepless nights. I am evaluating using my home’s equity but this does involve risk. If you look back to my posts in 2009-2010, I was one of the few who had savings and no debt during the depths of the crisis.  Unfortunately, there were many home foreclosures and asset repossessions going on. I bought my home on a fire sale from a local bank that similar to many people fell in love with giving people too much debt or the wrong people debt. Revisit that process here (note my house is one of those in the pictures): https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2010/04/homebuying-101-tour-baby-tour.html

My equity in my home means I have gains since I first made my purchase and I can borrow against that --- but the risk IS your home is the collateral. So to reduce your risk, I advise if you try this approach DO NOT take the full amount of equity in your home. If we are headed for a downturn and your home value decreases that $100K in gains may be more like $50K.

Q: Why is oil going down so much?

A: Haha be happy and take advantage of cheap prices. Prices are so low, someone commented to me I don’t remember the last time prices were below $2. The reason prices went down are primarily because of Saudi Arabia, no conspiracy theory here just market forces at work.  And this IS NOT linked to the coronavirus.  The Saudis increased oil output after they could not reach an agreement with Russia to limit oil production. In economics if you have too much product that you cannot sell --- prices WILL come down and they fell to the floor. The virus has made this worse because if people are being quarantined or staying at home the demand for the oil is now dropping.  Urb Lesson 101 – if supply goes up or demand comes down --- the value of a product usually drops. We have both.  I’ve provided a source here as well:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/business/saudi-arabia-oil-prices.html

Q: Can you believe it, 3 states have just now issued the shelter-in place strategy that you shared weeks ago were needed?

A: Yeah and many more states have closed schools and are allowing people to work from home. I think this is a well needed step in the plan to starve the virus. People are its host and you need to reduce people being in close contact for extended periods of time to starve the virus. The concern I still have as testing is finally ramping up, what is the damage by not doing this sooner and because it is NOT a true national strategy and states are electing to shutdown individually we all may not resume being productive as soon as we’ve seen in other places.  I think many people are using grocery store pickup and delivery, drive thru’s, Uber Eats, and I’ve seen stocks around meal delivery services popping but I’m not as big on this service for the masses. 

Q: So when I start to process everything I am seeing and hearing is this all a House of Cards?

A: To start, I have never seen the show so I don’t fully know the premise. But I truly understand the disbelief people have in how this has been handled. I think there has been poor leadership and people are panicking, hence the toilet paper craze. I think there are two things at play working separately: 1) Poor leadership results in no trust of the data/information coming from the top. It’s displayed when Trump would rather yell at the reporters than calmly answer the questions we are ALL hoping to hear the plan or solutions too. It’s clear when I get FEMA texts minutes apart from many people that everyone is on high alert and susceptible to hoaxes. That does not happen unless if you don’t TRUST the daily briefing you’re receiving from your CEO or leader. 2) If a virus can bring world to its knees because the fact is revealed that most of us do not have enough saving to cover two weeks of shelter-in place that is a scary proposition.  The new questions that will come are: a) When a family is so far in debt you go into bankruptcy….what does a country do to get out of a mountain of debt? b) If a lot of that debt is used on our medical system why is it being called fragile --- and we only have 400K medical beds nationally?  c) Will every virus, major climate change, and/or recession cause panic and markets to crash like this? d) Who get's a bailout --- it seems this time like everyone needs one? 

I pray we are all patient to get through this together and help each outer out. Because it will be a long drawn out process that is leading to an economic recession.  Next week, news is already coming out that the unemployment numbers will skyrocket to somewhere between 2.5 to 3 Million people. Stay tuned in and stay positive. We'll provide more on how we hold it down during a recession


Saturday, August 04, 2018

Apple Proves Value Investors Like Tech

Many people know my personality is similar to my investing style...I tend to go against the grain.  As a techie, I don't love the Apple phones for a technical reason it's a closed source ecosystem. Unlike open source devices, Apple prefers that you use only their software and products. I have to remind people that Apple did not invent putting things in the cloud, sending files/messages should be something you should be able to do to any phone, and chargers are meant to be universal.

But in order to be a good investor your personal preferences should NOT interfere with buying stocks.  While I don't own the phone, I don't dismiss many people around me use the phone. Or the fact that iTunes gift cards are a normal gift around the holidays without even asking me if I am an iPhone owner.  But these aren't the reasons why I decided to stake a claim in the value play a few years ago.  Many forgot back in 2016, Apple was trading under $100 dollars and there was fear they wouldn't be able to break into China and growth had stalled.  But as Apple continued to reinvent itself, I saw value in a company starting to pay a dividend, expanding internationally, and growing a profitable services and payments business. So when there is fear in the water you stake a calculated claim on an old dog that still has a few tricks.  Being in Risk Management, I had fun analyzing this stock and pulling the trigger when everyone was saying I got in too late. At an average of roughly $93 dollars, I was betting on a growing dividend, growth in China (maybe India), apps being the future (including iTunes), and logical determination that Apple phones would become larger as I knew people would share my frugal sensation over phone/tablets or phablets if you prefer (why have one of each when supersized phone does the trick).  I am not placing a big bet on Payments yet because I tend to know a little bit about this space. While people love the technology...I think there needs to be one wallet that can travel with you as you change from an ApplePay, SamsungPay, GooglePay....and merchants are CHEAP so it will be a very long time until every store and gas station pay for upgrade technology that supports these new types of payments.

Many say value is dead but I argue, you have to look in the right places. I just read an article about how Warren Buffet and Berkshire are enjoying the amazing gains of Apple. I laughed because I'm wondering if the pupil is finally learning from the teacher...looking back I bought Apple prior to when Berkshire made their purchase:

Post Mentioning Apple:
https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2016/10/how-to-invest-in-clinton-trump-election.html 

Wall Street Journal: Buffet Bet Big on Apple


This has also happened with Teva Pharmaceuticals recently so I hope to keep the streak alive and maybe may a few future recommendations...one Oracle to another. :)

Friday, October 21, 2011

Peeling Back the Details on Taxes in America...


Excerpt taken from the Wall Street Journal:
According to a letter Mr. Buffett sent to a Republican congressman on Tuesday, the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chairman and chief executive disclosed that he made almost $63 million last year, yet paid less than $7 million in federal income tax.
Mr. Buffett long has urged lawmakers to raise income-tax rates on the wealthiest, arguing that his secretary paid a higher effective rate than he did last year.
Please head to the Wall Street Journal to read the rest of this article and the details about how different income levels are taxed. Click below:

I'm curious, on what people's thoughts are on his disclosure about the tax disparity.  It makes me want to think long and hard about becoming a full time investor as the benefits of deductions and less income being taxed could be pretty nice. Please post your thoughts.

Monday, May 09, 2011

Notes from the Matix - April Download Pt II

Pharma
Pharma is short for pharmaceuticals and this has traditionally been an industry that I have shied away from as I’ve tried my best to incorporate a rule that I have learned from Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch awhile ago: Invest In Things That You Know

This is at odds at times with the strategy that I’ve been harnessing over time and that’s being a MACROVALUEQUANT. Often, my screens lead me select a stock that I believe has positive momentum (QUANT) and I further weed out these stocks if they are not trading at a low valuation (VALUE) and support my general view on what industries and sectors should do well in the current global economic environment (MACRO). My screens recently led me to 2 pharma stocks (See Pharma Premium Alerts Post) and I was very reluctant to nibble at the bait.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Reader Response - Berkshire Hathaway

Fred's comment:

I would have to agree that Buffett is the MJ of investments. No doubt BNI is pleased with the attention. Your love and knowledge of BNI is clear, so would you say that Buffett is trying to position Berk Hathaway for a takeover? (This article from NewsVisual makes a case for it: http://www.newsvisual.com/newsvisual/2007/08/as-berkshire-up.html ).

Urb Reader Response:

Fred, I wanted to say thanks for reading the article and throwing a very good question into the hat. After reading the article, it does make an interesting viewpoint on the many connections that BRK has with BNSI. However, I will use that same article and take a slightly different stance. I don't think that Buffett will buy BNSI because of the following:

- He has made multiple purchases in the sector and a quick SEC search will review his ownership in Union Pacific (10.5M shares) and Norfolk Southern (6.4M shares). I view these purchases as Buffett being bullish on the sector as a whole. Another long shot viewpoint could be he may try to use his influence to stir up further synergies amongst the companies. I would even say a possible merger, but I am unsure of the regulatory scrutiny over that type of transaction in this very mature industry.

However, I recently learned that Buffett had added an additional 845K shares to up his stake to 15% today. This again is another bullish sign for long term buyers.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Aug 28 - Urb Play of the Day

Have you witnessed greatness? How about Jordan... his "Airness" has had numerous moments where he has dazzled us. Taking off from the free throw line and flying through the air... his ability to defy gravity has often left me speechless.

Then you have the Michael Jordan of the investment world, Warren Buffet. His investment company Berkshire Hathaway continues to amaze us with timely investments that dazzle us with their ability to find companies with hidden value right underneath our noses.


Finally, some say I have come along and given hope where there was once despair. I have brought two worlds together, that some say couldn't exist. I know its difficult mantaining my natural swagger and love for hiphop and still dominating in the investment world. It's kinda like P-Diddy being your stockbroker you wonder could it ever be possible.
Now whenever I have a big investment, I have always told you to "Back That Thang Up"...ala Juvenile and buy tons of this stock. Well, I am releasing my Soulja Boy pick and telling you to "Crank That" and "Superman this Stock". I know... some faithful readers have been lost in translation but here we go. Crank That is my new reference loading up on a stock that I absolutely love. I am gonna superman this stock and give it a rating worthy of super hero status.
URB PLAY OF THE DAY:
"CRANK THAT" PICK -----> BURLINGTON NORTHERN SANTA FE (BNI)
I recommended this stock almost two weeks ago on strong momentum at the time. This was a time when most folks thought the sky was falling because of the subprime jitters in the market. The Dow went from an all time high at 14000 (See Dow Take a Bow) to skidding belowing 13000 in a matter of weeks (See The Dow and Beyonce's Fall). I still believe that the financial sector is in trouble but I won't rest until I find the best stocks out there. And boy have we found one. Go back to my post two weeks ago and you will see why I love BNI (See Balling on Wall Street Shopping List) . I disclosed then that I recently bought the stock at $79 and in the face of a deteriorating market watched it shrink down to $76, where I loaded up again. It was hard decision to make at the time but I played Soulja Boy's "Crank That" and it got me through the rough times. I was looking at my screens again tonight and all I can say is I love BNI, like a FAT KID LOVES CAKE. I promise you this stock opens higher tomorrow morning on more momentum.
And you keep asking who the heck is Soulja Boy and what does he have to do with my picks, well check him out here: Soulja Boy "Crank That"

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Your Best Bet is "Best Buy"

I read a pretty interesting article on one of my favorite retailers, Best Buy (BBY). Morningstar is an industry leading financial analysis firm and recently included BBY in an article called “The Market’s Got It Wrong On These 5 Stocks”. I want to bring BBY to the attention of all the Urbanomics followers out there.

People often ask me, “What’s Your Strategy?”. And often I can’t give them a polished and insightful Wall Street response. My strategy is quite simply to follow in the mantra of Rick Ross, “Hustlin’”. Everyday I am hustlin’…hustle smarter and in some cases harder. So I keep my ears to the Street…literally and look for themes that I often agree with. I don’t recreate the wheel, I pay homage to those who have come before me and use the tools they put in place to learn how to ball out of control. I will admit that the stocks I have normally gravitated towards are deeply undervalued stocks that will benefit from the momentum of the market to catapult them to the returns that I am looking for. I know, I know…I am new school too and too much yapping and not enough proof is what we all want. Let look at a few of my purchases in the last few years, which have been consistent with this theme:

I am including a link to the Morningstar article so that you can read one of their writer’s views on why the street has this stock wrong. I agree with most points raised in this article. Best Buy has some of the key things I look for when I follow Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, and the Urbanomic strategy.

Buffet Likes Because: This is a best in class stock that is undervalued. The stock has been beaten down and thanks to a poor earnings release, hammered even more (I know, I’m getting excited). This creates a good entry point near the 52 week low and what I think is some margin of safety (I’d rather by BBY on the way down then when they are up).

Lynch Would Be Proud Because: You buy stocks that you know and are familiar their product or business. I practically know where everything is in a BBY store.

Urbanomics Is Hustlin’ Because: Buffet and Lynch like a number of things about this stock. Urbanomics also like the fact that this stock is beaten down (like they stole somethin’), best in class, and there is a catalyst. BBY is raising its dividend payout and implementing a share buyback. Finally, we get a chance to buy this stock ahead of the winter season. And we all know retailers, will be cashing in during the holidays and earnings will see a much brighter day.

Morningstar article:
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=197250&pgid=wwhome1a