Build Your Own Case Study: Barnes and Noble (BKS)

I am good with numbers but unfortunately I am behind the 8 ball this year when it comes to posting my thoughts.  I've kept busy doing a lot of research to maintain a thoughtful blog.  Based on feedback you'll notice some changes to the site. First, many people will be happy to know that we've responded to your calls for any easy way to know what stocks I'm interested in. I developed a quarterly 'Subscription Service' to highlight long-term value stocks.  I continue to appreciate the feedback and the questions and we will definitely explore posts about socials issues, retirement, and life/wellness in the future.  They'll probably have some sort of financial bend to them so I won't stray to far away from the roots.

I want to talk about how to invest and why we all can do it.  I was just relaxing after taking in a couple of "Mad Men" episodes on Netflix and noted that I should revisit some of my old writings.  I flashed back to my thoughts earlier in the year in the posting "Companies Watch". I wrote the following about Barnes and Noble (BKS):

Barnes and Noble – I am a sucker for stocks on the decline and Barnes and Noble is showing up on my radar. The other day is dropped roughly 20% on news that they were changing their future outlook lower.  That is never good and investors let them have it.  BKS even mentioned making changes such as spinning of their NOOK business.

Price: $11.65 

If you noticed on January 12th, I brought BKS to your attention because it was a large company that's going through some tough times.  These companies can be good investments if you keep a level head and strong stomach.  I want to show you how I built a case study and how you can build yours. 

---

Things to Do:

1. Identify stocks that are need further analysis and write their pros and cons down.

2. Determine if the price is right by looking for discounts or mismatches in the prices.

3. Figure out what the price will be in future...think long term.  

4. Research the company to find out what and who supports your view of this stocks. This could range from charts, to investors to new articles.

 5. Stick to your guns and only buy the stock when the price is right.

6. Key a watchful eye out for strategic events that could tell you to buy more or sell the stock.

See how it might work, case study for BKS:

1. BKS 

Pros: Borders is gone, Nook/readers are hot right now

Cons: Amazon, decline in readership

2. See price above: $11.65

3. ?? My initial thoughts was say $20

4. Saw some good articles on e-readers and a few tough ones on book sales

5. I didn't buy BKS but after the huge drop I like the thought of purchasing some shares

6. Followed the story and saw these events as positive:

- Barry Rosenstein runs  JANA Partners which disclosed roughly a 7 million share position in BKS.  BKS was up big (around 18%) and rumors have already started to rise about will he force them to split the company up. 

- Microsoft invests in the Nook e-reader

- An investor who started off negative has has a change of heart. See Whitney Tilson 

Who to Watch / Company Watch - UPDATE

Who to Watch
My how times have changed!  In the past, young investors like myself would have wanted to follow in the footsteps of corporate raiders, mutual fund managers, and high profile investors.  One well known corporate raider is Carl Icahn, he and other corporate raiders were legendary for taking over companies or agitating boards for significant change. There was also those legendary mutual fund managers that made people in my parent's generation a lot of money by investing through their fund. Some well know names here are Peter Lynch (Fidelity), Bill Miller (Legg Mason), Bruce Berkowitz (Fairholme), and many others.  The last group of high profile investors are guys like Warren Buffet and George Soros.  Today some of the most well known money makers are in the hedge fund industry.    A small difference from the previous investors in the past, are hedge funds try to make money when markets are up or down by betting on and against the performance of stocks.  Here is a run-down of some of my favorite hedge fund managers:

• Steve Cohen, David Einhorn, John Paulson, Seth Klarman, 
• Bill Ackman, David Nierenberg, Monish Pabrai, Ray Dalio

JOBS, Company Watch - JOE, BKS, LULU, NFLX

January 9, 2012

JOBS BY THE NUMBERS

If you weren’t paying attention, some important data was released this week.  The US Labor Department released the number of jobs that were gained/lost in the previous month.  Drum roll…companies hired 200,000 employees in December and the famous unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%.  If you aren’t familiar with the numbers this is POSITIVE in my book.  The reasons are: (1) More people have been getting jobs and this has been consistently happening since last summer, (2) The jobs are being added across small, medium, and large companies, and (3) Jobless claims (i.e., people filing unemployment claims) are falling.  In case you were following along at home, the number usually has to be over 125,000 to signify that jobs are being added. 

We want more jobs, I want more jobs, and we should expect that are federal, state, schools, and citizens will do and try everything to continue to get this number to a level that allows our country to grow and people to work consistently.  So please when we watch debates or listen to the evening news keep that in perspective that without jobs a lot of other things seem pretty trivial.

COMPANY WATCH – St. Joes Company (NYSE: JOE) / Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS)

St. Joes Company – This stock is a great example of trusting your instinct.  I like the prospects of taking a contrarian, or against the grain, stand on some investments.  JOE was one of those companies that I thought is a better investment than owning home builders.  My thesis is you get to own land and that has an intrinsic value that should hold its worth in economic downturns like the ones we’ve suffered.  Well to make a long story short, I believe I had the right thesis however I never expected there was going to be such a dispute as to what the true value of the land is.  David Einhorn made a compelling case as to why the value of the land St. Joes held wasn’t worth what St. Joes was claiming and the stock has fallen sharply.  WELL, finally there appears to be some upside to the stock.  I’ve noticed that some analysts have upgraded their outlook based on future growth prospects.  The development of land in the Panama City area, the recent development of an international airport, and recent cost cutting measures are signs that they might be moving in the right direction. 

Price: $14.67

                                          

Barnes and Noble – I am a sucker for stocks on the decline and Barnes and Noble is showing up on my radar. The other day is dropped roughly 20% on news that they were changing their future outlook lower.  That is never good and investors let them have it.  BKS even mentioned making changes such as spinning of their NOOK business. 

Price: $11.65 

COMPANY WATCH  - Lululemon athletica (NASDAQ: LULU)  / Netfilx (NASDAQ: NFLX)  

Lululemon – I’ve had my eye on LULU for quite some time now.  This stock has been a high flier and it you don’t know they make money by selling $100 dollar yoga pants.  Yoga, it’s all the craze for people with money and to show of that dough they buy expensive pants to get their work out on.  Well LULU had come under some pressure and the stock dropped a bit.  I am a stock hater here! And because I like things on the cheap I want LULU to fall further before I begin buying.  I may not be able to get that opportunity because LULU seems to go one direction and that’s up.

 Price: $53.44

Netflix – Quick note, I trashed it on the way down and I love a good rebound.  NFLX, at the lows of $70 is attractive to me.  It’s rebounded strongly and they recently talked about expanding further internationally.

Price: $98.18