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Showing posts with label Sprint. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sprint. Show all posts

Sunday, August 30, 2020

Wakanda Forever

This post is being written with a heavy heart. I ask that you tune into the ABC showing of Black Panther in honor and memory of Chadwick Boseman. My brother, may you rest peacefully knowing that you moved this world in a way that will never be forgotten. You're portrayal of Thurgood Marshall, James Brown, Jackie Robinson, and of course your epic role in Black Panther will live long and inspire many for generations to come. Wakanda Forever

I'm know Black Panther or Luke Cage...I just use my everyday skills uplift myself and hopefully you. My everyday skills continue to see a nation that is hurting and in need of re-engineering.  A different and newer term used in my profession is transformation and I am a lead architect in transforming business and cyber security operations for companies across the world when they experience "issues". So you can rest assure, you are not alone...even countries and companies have issues and need someone to help.

I find out why things are broken and often challenge my stakeholders to lead me to the "root cause" of the issue. This exercise can be enlightening, humbling, and even embarrassing depending on people's personalities and what may have been overlooked as we uncover the issues affecting a team, department, or company.  We may summarize our analysis in a technique called a SWOT analysis --- which documents the (S)trengths  (W)eaknesses  (O)pportunities  (T)hreats of the entity being reviewed.

I have a fiduciary responsibility to my stakeholders so I come in as a independent party that has to be ethic and honest in reporting what I find. In the business world we have learned that only an "independent authority" will things get cleaned up. When I look at critical issues that African-Americans are facing with police departments, there is often no independent authority --- completely removed from the police department that can objectively weigh in and hold officers accountable. If you have immunity, it does not matter what I find in my analysis, and I suppose it does not matter what a cop does because immunity negates accountability. 

I often summarize what I do as being a Detective, Lawyer, and Psychiatrist. I'll breakdown why I have 3 different roles:

As a Detective, I have to accurately and even record all my interactions with my stakeholders. I find it strange that in my profession, all accurate interactions must be accurately logged yet we still have many police departments across the country that can't, won't, and don't securely record, log, and document all their interactions. If I chose not to do this I would get fired, why are police forces not held accountable like I would be in the corporate world?

As a Lawyer, I do have to advise my stakeholders when it appears they are in situations that are non-compliant with the law and the intent. But again, I find it strange, that there is a haze around the "baseline" conduct of how an officer must interact with it's stakeholders so that persons like myself can review how well they are complying to the baseline. We do things such as a lookback analysis. If you did a lookback analysis the my corporate methodology could quickly deduce that African Americans, particularly males are being negatively harmed by police forces across the country at a disproportionate rate to other classes of people. A lookback is a scientific way of identifying harm or abuse and we use it in the financial industry as research has shown that elderly people are often the targets and harmed by financial crimes. So if we can protect and prosecute elderly harm...why are African-American males not afforded the same protections.

The shooting of Jacob Blake and murders of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd are simply a small sample of my lookback analysis and the data is grim. There is no one taking any action with this clear and factual data which means by doing nothing...our politicians and our citizens are complicent if they do nothing with this data.

Finally, as a psychiatrist I listen to those I am working with to understand the entire story. I want to know what's working, what's painful, and what works well. When I see Portland, I hear the pain of a system that is broken. When I heard Doc Rivers question "Does this Country Love Us", I think he raised the question so many African Americans and a growing number of minorities are feeling. You just have to listen...and many people are not good listeners. Doc, I've have written over the years the contract that America has with African-Americans and it's people of color is a bad contract that needs to be re-written. It's the driving force as to why I will continue sharing my pillars. Love, Spirituality, Freedom, and Volunteerism are the paths forward. But in the US, if you are not financially, spiritually, mentally, and physically healthy and organized then the toxicity of wealth and leverage of those in power will try to snuff you and your voice out...like they did George Floyd. 

As a security expert, I use tools like: Cyberark, Zscaler, Crowstrike, Splunk, Cisco, Palo Alto Networks, NortonLifeLock, Tenable Holdings. 

However, I remind my clients that tools make you more efficient they hardly ever solve the root cause of who is responsible, what was the target goal and how do you measure progress, and finally how do you hold someone accountable?

Stay Balanced, Stack Your Chips, Get Organized and Let's use our Leverage --- to truly effect change.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portfolio Summary:

Collectors Universe Hit new all-time high of $50. - So your boy finally did it. Some of my shares are officially considered a 10 Bagger. That's when they increase 10 fold. If you'll recall, I bought Collectors back in 2008 so some of my shares bought at $40 finally reached this status first described by the great investor Peter Lynch. Still Holding

Sprint Finally Sold -  Here is my sale of 50% of my Sprint stake for roughly $5K in profit. I wish I would have held on until 1 full year for it to be considered a Long Term investment for tax purposes but that's another class for another day. I grew up with not much so I'll take these blessing and put them to good use. 



Thursday, July 09, 2020

E-Trade (ETFC) --- Hookup Alert



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Don't wanna go on livin' without you
I got the hook up holla if you hear me (Ughhhhhh)
And if we say bye bye bye then take my heart with you
I got the hook up holla if you hear me (Ughhhhhh)
Can we go on livin' without you
I got the hook up holla if you hear me (Ughhhhhh)

Artist: Master P + Sons of Funk ~ Song: I Got The Hook Up

So for a short period of time, I've decided to open up my portfolio to help educate people. United we stand and by investing you can be independent, self-owned and bout it bout (thanks P). You can follow wild Reddit investing pages that chronicle how one person made $1M out of his $35K retirement account but those stories never tell you how many people flamed out taking crazy risks. This is about investing in yourself and your goals for the long-term. It's about diversifying your streams of income so that you make decisions on your own terms. It's not a overnight dream, but a long-term goal that you have to plan for. Being musically inclined, I remember a time when Master P said Ughhhh but more importantly I always heard him say "independent, black-owned and I'm bout it bout".  Yes sir, I remember this like it was yesterday but it was over 2 decades ago since Master P dominated the scene. Flashback: In high school, I used to go back and forth about which record label was the best. My man Darryl Baxter was definitely in the No Limit Records camp (the record label of Master P) and so was Ed Whitney. I've always gone against the grain, so to make this a competitive debate each day I took the other side and would always say Sean Puffy Combs and his Bad Boy record label was better. I know --- two successful black men meant we all were right at the end of the day but those debates were memorable. But what they didn't know was I was in the No Limit Camp way before I was a fan of Bad Boy because my dad (being a music lover) brought home a "tape" from the "record" store back then. Don't ask me how or why but he had a tape of Master P's "Ice Cream Man" which I played on repeat over and over and over. The moral of this story is similar to Master P, I write this post to plan a seed in one person's mind just like Master P did when he had a whole generation repeating that phrase. And for the record, NO, I was not inspired to be the "Ice Cream Man" but to be independent black-owned and yes bout it bout it. Next time I'll tell you about Suave House and my clique but let's stay focused.

If you haven't noticed, over the years I've had my fair share of stock hookups. On Wall Street, we call this activity: mergers, acquisitions, and takeovers. My search for value sometimes leads others in the same direction and I get lucky if a big investor or company buys out the company I own for a nice premium --- a hookup. No long story today but I wanted to highlight E-Trade Financial. I like to do research to find my next investment and often benefit from small clues hiding in plain site. If you don't believe me go back and read my posts on Sprint. It will go down as one of my most memorable investments because it was based off of the fact that the CEO (Marcelo Claure) and the Chairman of the Board (Masayoshi Son) both sold their houses before the deal was ever close to being finalized. haha who sells a $10M crib next to Sprint's headquarters unless you're on good authority you won't need it anymore.  

My trade in E-Trade (no pun intended) started from the fact that apps like RobinHood, Dough and others were massively disrupting the retail stock trading space. With 20 years of investing under my belt, I can truly tell you the hardest problem to overcome is the fees which eat into your profits when making a trade. RobinHood and others have helped to reduce those fees to $0. TD Ameritrade and E-Trade were hurt badly kinda like how record sales were impacted once streaming became a thing. So along came Charles Schwab (SCHW) who decided to hookup with TD Ameritrade. There were rumors that consolidation was coming to the industry but I was slow and missed an opportunity to trade AMTD. So I kept an eye on ETFC and decided if I couldn't get the first option, I would trade the second option. Morgan Stanley (MS) came calling and slid into E-Trade's DM. The terms are Morgan Stanley will give ETFC shareholders 1.0432 for every share of MS. This is a good example where my current trade is not yet profitable (note: it was prior to COVID-19 market crash) but you need to have patience. However, if the deal closes in the 4th Quarter as expected, this trade will become profitable once closed or when my trade expiry date (Jan 2021) hits. 


Always remember, there is strength in numbers



Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Keep On Pushing - Q2 Market Outlook Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

With Quarter 1 2020 in the books, I wanted to capture a few of the headlines coming across my screen that I'm paying close attention too:

What you Should Know:

  1. Unemployment numbers are on the rise
  2. The Federal Reserve is printing money an unprecedented levels - rates have lowered as they help unfreeze the mortgage markets
  3. Shelter-In Place is sparking a rise in internet companies
  4. Deals are being lost but the big ones are going through
  5. SBA Loan Details



Jobs Number:
- A record 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week (Labor Department).  Last week saw the biggest jump in new jobless claims in history, surpassing the record of 695,000 set in 1982. Many economists say this is the beginning of a massive spike in unemployment that could result in over 40 million Americans losing their jobs by April.

Interest Rates:

- 30 Year Mortgage are at lowest levels of: 3.4%
- Mortgage Applications up 15.3% 
- Refinance up 26%
Note: One company said they received 8K refinance requests day

Investment Themes:

Invest in Internet Related Companies:
- Match Group disclosed that Tinder interactions are up. But it is not resulting in a large number of  new customer adds just yet
- Zoom Media (NASDAQ: ZM) is winning the marketing war. Everyone thinks Zoom and Slack (NYSE: WORK) are the only telework software out there. There are many but Microsoft Teams (Microsoft: MSFT), Go To Meeting, are go to collaboration and communication tools.
- Also cyber security software is in high demand. To help my client with the Coronavirus crisis, I manned the call support line and took calls from all over the world for the first time in my life. Every major client was working remote and more importantly I listened to the name of the software being used: Zscaler and many remote authentication and identity management tools are needed NOW more than ever.

Deal or No Deal
Madison Square Garden (NYSE: MSG)  – The owner of the NY Knicks just recently spun off their restaurants business. Hmmm I think someone may be separating the good assets from the bad assets.

Xerox (NYSE: X) – Some Mergers are no longer being pursued. HP is no longer being courted by Xerox.
Sprint (now merged under T-Mobile TMUS) - Some Mergers were pushed through. One of my biggest wins was Sprint and this deal closed today!!! T-Mobile required their 16 banking partners to come through with the funding --- Deal Closed

Helicopter Money - The last line of defense for the capital system under stress is to bail everyone out. I sh!t you not in economics its called the helicopter money strategy. Well for anyone looking to get a Small Business Loan, I captured some of the details here:

SBA Loan Details:
  • Small Business Administration (SBA) Loans are available beginning Friday
  • All existing SBA-certified lenders are eligible
  • All FDIC-insured banks and Credit Unions are eligible
  • The SBA is developing a portal for borrowers without existing relationships to find local lenders

      SBA Loan Terms:
  • 0.5 interest rate with 2- year term
  • Payments are being deferred for 6 months
  • Partial or full loan forgiveness avail depending on layoffs (not happening) and certain qualified expenses
  • The loans are 100% guaranteed by SBA
  • The loans are administered by individual lenders



Friday, February 21, 2020

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) -- A Possible Solution To Coronavirus

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How Are You Feeling -- It's Lit!
This month, I'm still riding high as Symantec/Norton LifeLock and Sprint have me toasting for more good luck to come.  Norton Lifelock offered shareholders a special dividend of $12 this month so you guessed it...we goin' to Disneyland just like Patrick Mahomes said after winning the Superbowl MVP. If you're not good at math well here goes -- if you owned 100 shares you got a $1200 deposit in your and let's say you owned 1000 shares, well you guessed it -- you'd be getting $12,000 for betting on a stodgy OLD cybersecurity company. Sprint and T-Mobile have just announced the deal will likely close by April 1st so in my world of Risk Management...there are NOT many more obstacles to overcome this deal closing as one of my biggest investments in my life closes. I hold Sprint in both my retirement and personal account and Norton Lifelock just contributed only to my retirement account.

Stop Reinventing the Wheel -- Learn From the Greats
I often joke with people that by speaking positive vibes into the world -- you can speak things into existence.  So one of the biggest lessons I've learned over time is to read and research how other greats have walked. I call it the Lexus philosophy. I recall a Lexus executive speaking at a roundtable series in college and I thought the building blocks of the company were simple and smart.  They knew who did what well. By this I mean, he noted that: German's had great engineering, American's dominated in design, and the Japanese were dominant in manufacturing without significant defects. So when Lexus set out they simply decided to borrow best practices from the best companies in the business. I use this philosophy everyday -- don't overthink it...reuse it.

Black History Moment
George Washington Carver - Some called him a botanist or an a pioneer agronomist. He developed amazing uses for plants - peanuts, soybeans, and sweet potatoes. Being born a slave didn't stop Carver, he went on to obtain his undergraduate degree from Iowa State and then he accepted a job at the Tuskegee Institute where he invented and reinvented products -- more than 300 way to use peanuts to may products like soap, skin lotion, and paint. Wow - Witness Greatness
Gilead (GILD) - Repurposing Drugs for the Next Virus
Gilead Sciences is a value stock that's right up my alley. I've owned the shares for a few years and it hasn't done a whole lot. But in life, sometimes you have to be patient with just like Carver was with his crops. They had a blockbuster Hepatitis C drug that was no longer protected by patents so they enjoying the legacy riches from that investment and moving on to others. To speed up the process they invest in Kite Pharma in 2017 to bolster their pipeline. But I'm highlighting Gilead today because like Carver, I find in fascinating that firms repurpose things to create new products. In this case Gilead is using an existing HIV drug to fight a new battle against the Coronavirus. Gilead is developing an experimental drug called remdesivir and based on the numbers that continue to come out of the region, I hope the containment measures and drugs of tomorrow can assist to limit the impact of this virus going forward. The options market appears to be betting on Gilead moving higher and I could see it move towards the $80-85 range.



Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Sprint Corp. (S) - Can Ya Hear Me Now


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Self - Made

It is February and in honor of Black History Month I want to take a moment to pay my respects to Madame C.J. Walker. In movies and music, we often boast about being the next Tony Montana or Jay Z hustlin' our way from rag to riches.  But the reality is more people would be better off following in the footsteps of Madame C.J. Walker. A woman with an amazing work ethic, she went on to be the first -- let me repeat myself -- the first woman in the US to be a self-made millionaire (no handouts). She was an inventor, businesswoman, and philanthropist, so I can just hope to reach 2 outta 3 on that list.

My path to being self-made may take a different road but I challenge myself often by asking why not me. To quote the great Fat Joe, "Nothin' Can Stop Me I'm All The Way Up".  But back to the lecture at hand.  My goal is to continue Sprinting to greatness...and yesterday I was elated when I saw in my Google news feed that the merger between Sprint Corp. and T-Mobile would finally be approved.  It was one of those moments when you say, "How did Google know I was interested in News About Sprint?"...then I read the headline, screamed for joy, reached out to family and friends and realized I'd deal with Google on another day. Why - Because Sprint Corp. was up over 75% for the day thanks to the judge's final ruling on the merger with T-Mobile. Sprint has my 2020 portfolio and retirement gains literally off to the races.

I guess the feeling is similar to a poker player pushing in a large amount of chips. It's agony waiting for the final card to flip over but when it hits and you realized your hand is the best -- the rush is like none other. I laid out the bread crumbs over the course of the last year, here is a quick recap of how Sprint put me in the limelight because I trade tight...time to get paid blow up like my last trade:

In May 2019 I wrote the following: And Sprint (S), Sprint keeps getting offers to play overseas for T-Mobile but the FTC (like the stock version of the NBA Commissioner) is telling me that the deal is unfair. Funny he doesn't say that to Verizon or AT&T the biggest cell phone carriers. Let a player get his money Commish?!?!  Approve the deal and let me bask in the glory of my draft pick prowess.

December 25, 2019, I followed up and said: Final Summary -- So even though I empathize with the states, it would look bad if the Sprint deal falls apart only to have that company FAIL in a few years. That also would result in the industry consolidating to 3 major players and the same concerns return over customer pricing. I've made a small bet once again on Sprint that this deals get done in the New Year.

December 31, 2019, you caught me saying:  Sprint (S) - Played options very well (now letting the profits ride on T-Mobile deal approval will be biggest gain if hits)

But I was most proud of the detailed analysis I shared back in July of 2019. I told you to follow the money. Like a budding NCIS agent looking for clues, I laid out ALL the evidence in a detailed post:

The contrarian in me points out two simple facts: 1) Capitalism - the deal gets done b/c a lot of people stand to make a ton of money (it is convenient Sprint's commercials say they are doing well, but the Execs say the business is declining).  I do not usually have time to listen to quarterly conference calls but I found it MORE interesting that Sprint executives have been putting their houses on the market since the end of last year. How about the fact that the Corporate Office has already been sold. 👀 Strange this has all happened and the deal is NOT even complete as of this post.  2) Less Choice - Prices have been declining ever since T-Mobile took the American wireless industry by storm with good ole "competition". So you go with the contrarian view that Verizon, AT&T, and the market has had enough of its decline in revenue due to T-Mobile's entrance and the smart investment is for them to buy Sprint. The only thing is how do you sell it to the public. 😇 Well, the Department of Justice (DOJ) has supposedly negotiated a deal for T-Mobile to sell excess spectrum to another party to create a new 4th major wireless carrier. Wait for it...who can't wait to buy cell phone service from Dish Network 💪💪

Urb Lesson of the Day: Everything and everyone has layers. Take time to peel those layers and get to the obvious truths in life. I traded Sprint multiple times in the last 7+ months and tomorrow's announcement will eventually lead to the closure of my outstanding trades.  Disclosure: I own Sprint (S) and by trading from the bottom up...I followed everyday clues hidden in plain site to reduce my risk on what some called the "unlikeliest" deal to get done.

Executives Sell Mansions Before the Sprint Deal is Done: Follow the Mansion Money


#followthemoney       #datadriventrades         #investandchill

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

2019 Year In Review - Mask On...Mask Off


Thank you Future - Mask On...Mask Off. Represent...I Gotta Represent

Mask Off - I am currently closing the books for 2019 and reflecting on a year of ups and downs.  Personally, I was rocked to my core this year as I lost my father. It was a deafening experience because he was an amazing father, husband, educator, community and spiritual leader. When it happened, many of us were stunned, discombobulated and grasping for balance.  

I use the word numb because I arguably experienced my best personal year I have ever had…and didn’t care.  I was very fortunate from a very early age my father taught me how to be strong, independent, and prepared to lead the family when that time came. So that is what I – what we all have tried to do, with him in mind.  Finally, this year marked my second daughter and 3 nephews being introduced to the world and my family and they are a big source of joy as we recover from our loss. 

Mask On - I get my strength from my family and push on to make a difference in this short life we are given.  I keep my eye on the prize and financial independence, being spiritually guided, and mentally woke is a powerful combination that NOBODY can touch.  So mask on and back to the lecture at hand: I ran the numbers and I turned in a pretty solid year. At roughly 23%, my personal portfolio that I manage did fairly well and IMO I didn't take on a ton of risk as I targeted value stocks.  Some are discarded gems, others I did detailed research and just saw a different story and narrative than many others.  I kind of like going against the grain...following the herd is NOT in my DNA ask Kendrick Lamar. .

Remember you all can do this. Need proof, the broader market turned in a similar performance and an event better performance was found in a technology based strategy like simply buying the NASDAQ index this year (to the tune of roughly 35% this year). I've got big goals this upcoming year and I will introduce them later but here are the remainder of the best picks I uncovered for 2019:
  • Symantec / NortonLifeLock (SYMC)- Value Play; Part of the Business was bought out gave us a nice pop 
  • Telsa (TLSA) - Value Play Doubled in 2019 
  • Sprint (S) - Played options very well (now letting the profits ride on T-Mobile deal approval will be biggest gain if hits)
  • Okta (Okta) - Cybersecurity trade that I sold too early but you live and learn
  • Allergan (AGN) - A beaten down value play that finally payed off; This company make BOTOX and will be bought out by Abbvie
  • Arconic (ARNC) - Pickup up some shares about the $19-21 range; value play that was dogged by litigation from a high-rise fire in London; Sold to early but it's all good
  • Humana (HUM) - This stock ran up after a few big issues failed to damper healthcare stocks: 1) the Trump administration came down lightly on fines for not disclosing their negotiated rates ( a supposed game changer to bring down drug prices) and 2) Elizabeth Warren scaling back her Medicare for all plans
  • Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - Pleasant Surprise; Stumbled on to an under performing value stock that is under pressure to change CEOs and deliver better results
  • Cronos (CRON) - Surprised to see this one was so profitable; traded the Marijuana stock a few times. I have big hopes and so does the alcoholic beverage industry as they took a major stake in this company. One of the few companies I still hold a stake in
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) - Cybersecurity IPO stock that focuses on protecting your devices; They got absolutely crushed after a bag earnings and I was nimble and played this stock very well. I will be back in CrowdStrike this year
  • JD. COM (JD) - My patience was rewarded; I calculated that America and China need each other. Trump removing the China tariffs caused this stock to take off from the mid 20s and now its in the mid 30s. This is a core holding for the future 


I want to wish you a very Happy New Years. Many blessings to you all and don't be afraid to dream but do it rationally, help others, take prudent risk, and take care of those who are good to you.
Here is my gift to you the rest of the best:
  • VIX Index - I traded in and out of the VIXY; I'm waiting for volatility to return in 2020
  • Zscaler - Plagued by earning's misses; I traded ZS in 2019 and expect to be more active in ZS and the Cyber stocks in 2020 as expectations and acquisitions are ripe for the picking
  • Kohls - Between dividends and a small profitable trade, Kohls made my list but then turned into my achilles heel; I fell for their splashy venture with Amazon which was probably to cover for a bad earnings call to come. They got crushed and will need to bounce back  
  • Century Link - No big notes here. They stabilized around the $10 range and it was a nice win
  • Ceasar's - A good example winning and lose. I bet on Ceasars in 2018. Was happy when a deal was announced and thought I won big. No deal came and my trade blew up. I put the trade back on and benefited when El Dorado decided to buy Ceasars...so only a small gain comes from all this work.
  • AVEO Pharmaceuticals - I had a small win but AVEO continues to have disappointing drug trials  
  • RedHat - bought out by IBM wish I had a bigger position
  • Novagold - Gold is back and being helped by Brexit and the recent attacks in the Mid East
  • Anadarko - Bought out by Occidental Petroleum; I beat my buddy Buffet to this trade as he funded Occidental's purchase
  • Facebook - Hard to fight the beast. They known everything and are selling it...ohh marketing it to anyone with cash
  • Foot Locker - Hurt by the China issues, severely under-performed but Nike's resurgence may bode well for them in 2020
  • Newell Brands - A value play that I think has bottomed. Let's see if we can trade this stock on the way up 

Clearly 2019's song of the year is HOT by Young Thug featuring Gunna and Travis Scott...
 my job is to keep it HOT in 2020...look out

Wednesday, December 25, 2019

Sprint, How A Wireless Carrier Was a Top 2019 Investment?

First things first, happy holidays to everyone out there! Next in my series of Top 2019 investments is Sprint.

Sprint Corp
Ticker: S (NYSE) Industry: Wireless Telecommunications

I have written about Sprint quite a few times so I am not going to spend much time on this investment. Sprint finally turned into an investment literally about one year ago. This was a tough decision because after doing some research on Sprint I felt like they operated more like the Cleveland Browns football team.  If you are not familiar with the Browns, they have not been a very good sports team in quite a long time. But there has been hope in the last few years as they have selected some talented players who are hoping to turn the franchise around (Mayfield, Garrett, Landry, Beckham, etc.). I was NOT a believer but many people anointed them a championship caliber team this year.  How has it gone this year for the Browns and their new look team?  Well in short, it is still dysfunctional and a work in progress.

I am already reading your mind -- and you are wondering if Sprint is similar to the Cleveland Browns, why in the world would I want to invest in them?  Well the nice think about the stock market is you can make bets on the underdog in hopes they can turn it around for a big upside. So using my Cleveland Browns analogy, I would have reminded Browns fans that I DON'T think this is the breakout year but I DO think they are headed in the right direction. As for Sprint, they, as well as the whole industry, will be looking good in future years due to the transition to 5G technology. T-Mobile appeared to like this future outlook as they made a bid to acquire Sprint which initially caused the shares to spike in 2019.  I was handsomely rewarded in 2019 on various bets I placed on Sprint and closed but was also surprised to see the T-Mobile deal still remained open.  Even though Sprint and T-Mobile squeezed through Federal regulator approval in 2019, the deal is hung up because roughly 13 states and D.C. think the combination would be bad for consumers and pricing.  I actually agree with the states argument that if there are only 3 major carriers (ATT, Verizon, T-Mobile) the aggressive pricing decline we've all benefited from probably slows down. So Sprint strangely is making the argument that they are on a path to go out of business.

Hope all you Sprint customers are listening, In short, here is what I've learned about Sprint:
a) they never did a great job with the Nextel Communications acquisition (remember push to talk Nextel, yeah Sprint ran that into the ground)

b) they made a major bet on which 4G technology would win and lost (Sprint WIMAX was shut down)

c) these events have caused them NOT to invest as much into their wireless infrastructure (not a good statement if that is one of your biggest responsibilities is to invest so cell phones work properly)

d) they own Boost Mobile and spent more time trying to convert pre-paid customers into customers like you and me who get a monthly bill and can get billed for overages (not really stealing customers from the other carriers)

Final Summary -- So even though I empathize with the states, it would look bad if the Sprint deal falls apart only to have that company FAIL in a few years. That also would result in the industry consolidating to 3 major players and the same concerns return over customer pricing. I've made a small bet once again on Sprint that this deals get done in the New Year.

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Sprint + T-Mobile (Hookup Alert)

Right now, my stock portfolio has more hook ups going on than the teenagers in HBO's new hit series Euphoria!  Well, you can see why I am a investor and not a comedian.  But back to the lecture at hand...a few months ago, I alerted you that things may be bubbling with Sprint and that a takeover could be in its future.  👰

How might an investor come to this conclusion? Just listen to Sprint executives themselves.  Sprint for awhile now has been publicly telling the investment community that its business pretty much sucks.  From what I can understand, the money-maker is its pre-paid wireless customers...then the HUSTLE is to convert those customers into post-paying customers like me where they can be up-charged and over-charged for services like unlimited talk, text, and data (post-paying customers). Interestingly, Sprint has publicly acknowledged they are giving out so many incentives that the business model is a money looser.

Now here comes the million dollar question, why do I care about Sprint AND why would I invest in a poor performer.  Well, I often take a contrarian view to life and believe that most things are...well "complicated".  Most people want to call Sprint a dog with fleas and they would just rather stay away.  But most things in life have layers and it's in your best interest to peel back those layers. Like in relationships, you just don't look at what's on the surface you have to look at the whole package.  Sprint's whole package is that it is one of the four leading wireless carriers in the US. I learned in elementary or middle school (can't remember) that this is essentially a cartel (monopoly, duopoly, triopoly...cartel??) haha  I prefer oligarchy but let's not get technical. The point is there is still tremendous value here. As my astute friend pointed out, how can Sprint get taken over and leave only 3 wireless carriers...that means prices go up | less choice | and maybe service declines.

The contrarian in me points out two simple facts: 1) Capitalism - the deal gets done b/c a lot of people stand to make a ton of money (it is convenient Sprint's commercials say they are doing well, but the Execs say the business is declining).  I do not usually have time to listen to quarterly conference calls but I found it MORE interesting that Sprint executives have been putting their houses on the market since the end of last year. How about the fact that the Corporate Office has already been sold. 👀 Strange this has all happened and the deal is NOT even complete as of this post.  2) Less Choice - Prices have been declining ever since T-Mobile took the American wireless industry by storm with good ole "competition". So you go with the contrarian view that Verizon, AT&T, and the market has had enough of its decline in revenue due to T-Mobile's entrance and the smart investment is for them to buy Sprint. The only thing is how do you sell it to the public. 😇 Well, the Department of Justice (DOJ) has supposedly negotiated a deal for T-Mobile to sell excess spectrum to another party to create a new 4th major wireless carrier. Wait for it...who can't wait to buy cell phone service from Dish Network 💪💪

Urb Lesson of the Day: Everything and everyone has layers. Take time to peel those layers and get to the obvious truths in life. I traded Sprint multiple times in the last 7+ months and tomorrow's announcement will eventually lead to the closure of my outstanding trades.  Disclosure: I own Sprint (S) and by trading from the bottom up...I followed everyday clues hidden in plain site to reduce my risk on what some called the "unlikeliest" deal to get done.

Executives Sell Mansions Before the Sprint Deal is Done: Follow the Mansion Money


And My Comments from May 2019:  And Sprint (S), Sprint keeps getting offers to play overseas for T-Mobile but the FTC (like the stock version of the NBA Commissioner) is telling me that the deal is unfair. Funny he doesn't say that to Verizon or AT&T the biggest cell phone carriers. Let a player get his money Commish?!?!  Approve the deal and let me bask in the glory of my draft pick prowess.

Linky: May 2019 Post on Sprint

#investandchill #Sprint #T-Mobile

Monday, July 08, 2019

Invest and Chill – How to Be a Portfolio Player

To be a player you have to learn from a player.  And I’ve read my fair share of books about players or as I call them, Original Investors’ in the stock game.  Please don’t get confused, they are not OGs or Original Gangsters, they are more of what I would call old heads or OIs  Ã  Original Investors.  Ron Baron, Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and Mario Gabelli are just a few that come to mind.  In addition, I appreciate successful business people and investors who look like me. Some of those great businesspersons include: LeBron James, Jay-Z, Sean Combs, Dr. Dre, Oprah Winfrey (Sports & Entertainment) and Robert Smith, and John Rogers Jr (Financials and Investments). I remind people some of the same skills come in handy when running a business and investing in businesses. One might say: Game Recognizes Game

But back to the lecture at hand, I want to focus on an Original Investor name Mario Gabelli. He often jokingly calls himself “Dr. Love”.  Our generation might ask is Dr. Love the king of “Netflix & chill” or “swiping right”…no not exactly, he’s a player alright just of the stock market.  So what kind of player is this?? Well he often targets companies that will be acquired by another company.  Acquired/Merged/Bought Out…are just the stock market’s way of saying these two companies plan to hook up.  Companies that hook up in the stock market are usually a good thing because the company being pursued usually requires a lot of cash or stock for this to happen. 

So one of the things I challenge myself to ask while researching stocks is whether my stocks are “dateable”.  While it is not my main strategy, it helps to have this as an additional catalyst for a stock to do well.  I try to identify trends in companies being acquired and often ask: “Why is this stock so attractive to other companies?”, “Is this an industry trend that will continue?”, and quite frankly “who might be next”.  While it sounds a really bad dating show, it is important to understand if the company is a diamond in the rough, considered young and attractive, or could the company make company’s pursuing it BETTER.  Here is my Invest and Chill Portfolio:



Possible Themes Uncovered: Healthcare (rationale: all the talk of drug costs coming done??); Media (rationale: Content is king as everyone moves to streaming and online gambling); Technology & Telecom (rationale: young and attractive companies being bought, 5G coming soon??); Value (rationale: strong market means underperformers get bought out??)

Urb Update: Full Disclosure: I’ve owned all of these stocks as noted before; many are currently in the process of being acquired. Feel free to search the site for previous posts and commentary

#investandchill

Thursday, May 02, 2019

Did You Say Narcos...Or Anadarko

Interesting?!? When they interview sports stars, is it odd they often say: "If I could do anything else I would be a rapper.   Then the big NBA game comes on and I see E-40 cheering on Golden State, Drake court side in Toronto, and YG and 2 Chains on the court at the end of Los Angeles games.  Well to take a page from their playbook, investors wanna be both!  My investing game in basketball terms feels like I'm in a zone.  Or maybe more like I'm playing zone...like the defense.  The zone defense is known to be safe or even cautious as it does not require the players to exert a lot of energy when defending but requires you be consistent, diligent, and opportunistic.  I am cautious on the markets as they continue to grind higher.  I still think the business climate (due to the tax cuts) and job hiring is trending up. Further, I think the market will melt up even more IF a deal with China (any deal) gets done.  But I think signs in housing and other areas tells me, the dynasty is almost over.  So what does my zone defense look like?  Well here is a run-down of my zone defense portfolio in Game 5 of a 7 game series:

Coaching (Doc Rivers, Phil Jackson, Lenny Wilkens) - Like the great coaches listed here, I try to remain level headed, even zen like, on where the market currently is. I feel like we are in Game 5 or 6 of a 7 game series. So I'm coaching my team (oops my portfolio) to be ready for the downturn...we don't like being blown out.

Guards (Chris Paul, Damian Lillard) - Like CP3 and Dame, my PG is small but packs a punch! So my point guard is Collectors Universe (CLCT), this is a small cap company that I have been overweight for a VERY long time. And they don't seem to disappoint. They had a bad quarter and Wall Street punished them awhile back dropping them from $30 to eventually below $15. If you've been following us here you'll remember when we picked then up during the recession of 2008 at the $4 dollar level. And for us they mint coins...almost literally and grade "mint-condition" baseball cards and collectibles. So that means steady cash streams coming in, a nice dividend and an appreciating stock.  If you read the previous conference calls, part of the bad quarter was slow China demand and a big time investment in a new corporate HQ. Well guess what, those costs related to the HQ are behind them and the last two quarters have been positive. I picked up more shares after the HQ build-out because for a small cap company I felt it made a difference in their earnings. I like my PG so much that I bought more Collectors and put it in my 401K plan for the long-haul. Cheers to CP3, Lillard and CLCT!!

At the other guard position, I rotate the Young Guns. This group is spring loaded and receiving trade offers as other teams want my players. If this were International football (or what Americans call soccer) these players are hitting the the transfer window, or season where other teams pay top dollar for my players:

Anadarko Petroleum (APK) - I picked on Andarko as Chevron was showing interest and now there is a bidding war that has ensued. And look who jumped into the fray... my mentor Warren Buffet is lending money to Occidental Petroleum to outbid Chevron. If was just announced because some investment firm tracks jets and saw that the Occidental jet flew to Omaha...really who has that much free time!!! The Narcos are circling Anadarko. Looks like my draft pick may get bought out soon.  My guess is Occidental wins out with a sweeter bid and the Buffet brand name (we'll see).

Arconic (ARNC) - An earlier trade fell thru but this player has been working on his skills. Dropping down to about $18, and putting up big numbers by bouncing back to the $22 range. I may be getting suitors coming to the table soon and now they pay more than the $23 range to buy this stud out.

Tesla (TSLA)- Like the Nets Guard De'Angelo Russell, everyone has an opinion. So after the terrible earnings call, I took a chance here. Some may second guess my value call, but along with Ron Baron, and others, I just personally think Tesla is a transformation company that will explode. Mr. Russell who was left for dead...is now a NBA All-Star this year due to his hard work and transformation. For example, I drive a Plug-In Hybrid BMW X5 e40 (fully loaded 😎and 600 mpgs) and trust me the experience is nice, I'm sure the Tesla models are even nicer because they dominate the electric vehicle space.

Qualcomm (QCOM) - When I want to play a savvy veteran, I turn to QCOM. Again some questioned the value here when they were battling Apple the goliath of the tech industry. I wish I would have gave QCOM a bigger contract because they went to Game 7 with Apple and won a $4.5B settlement!! A stock in the mid-50s exploded up into the $80s leaving me happy for the player and bummed I didn't invest even more. What a shocker.

JD.com (JD) - This stock is like a chance on the player suspended for taking performance enhancing drugs, TWICE. First, the tariff issues with China took all the steam out of this stock. Then the 2nd item was the CEO was accused of assault and battery. The stock was hovering around $30 and then tanked into the low 20s. It appears the Minnesota prosecutors did not choose to prosecute after new videos surfaced recently appearing to help the CEOs case.  Now basically breakeven, this player may spring back into Player of the Year discussions if the China negotiations with Trump are finalized.

On the bench: I have one player preparing to pack his bags: Celgene (CELG) - they were acquired and soon we'll part ways with a nice contributor.

And Sprint (S), Sprint keeps getting offers to play overseas for T-Mobile but the FTC (like the stock version of the NBA Commissioner) is telling me that the deal is unfair. Funny he doesn't say that to Verizon or AT&T the biggest cell phone carriers. Let a player get his money Commish?!?!  Approve the deal and let me bask in the glory of my draft pick prowess.

Next time, I will go into my Development League team: Newell Brands (NWL), Stitch Fix (SFIX), and Colony Capital (CLNY)



Sunday, March 02, 2014

Personal Finance - Lowering Your Cell Phones Costs

I'm sharing this information with you "Because I'm Happy", kinda like how Pharrell Williams was after he penned his hit song.  I'm always happy about finding ways to invest and my #1 priority is helping you invest in yourself.  Some of my favorite ways of investing myself are: 1) Saving for a rainy day, 2) Investing for short/long term gains, and 3) Cutting Your Costs.

Today we are talking about cutting the cell phone costs that plague many people.  As important as your cell phone is, I tell people to try and be rationale where possible and save yourself a few bucks.  I personally do not have a $80+ dollar phone bill and as you read from my previous article I will not enter into a contract unless its on my terms. It turns out there are more people out there that are beginning to adopt this same strategy and its forced the cell phone companies to give us plans that we actually need, instead of paying for a plan I don't use.

Quick ways to save big bucks on your cell phone

1) Minutes - Go with the basic minutes plan and jump on a carrier that most of your friends and family are on. You will benefit from free mobile to mobile minutes.   

2) Text - Ease up on the one the word texts and pick up the phone and actually use those minutes every now and them. Or drop the text plan and take advantage of the many popular apps which let you text, talk or video message: "Whatsapp", "Viber", "Google Hangouts", "Blackberry IM", Apple Messenger", and "Skype" to reduce your reliance on carrier text plans. It's no secret why Whatsapp has 450 Million users worldwide.

3) Data - In as few words as possible, use WIFI. Its everywhere: Many people at work have access to WIFI, and don't forget to make a quick mental note of places like Starbucks, Staples, Home Depot, McDonalds, Jimmy Johns, and other retailers that offer you free WIFI when you are on the go.

Learn what you can live without and I've learned that WIFI is everywhere and I don't really need data. But cutting costs may also mean upgrading your plan if the price is right. If I can get a cheaper plan with unlimited minutes, text, and I can add data...then I might add something I want...but don't need. :)

Chart Courtesy of Techlicious.com:
Link to Techlicious Article: Cheapest Cell Phone Plans

Cell Phones Plans by Carrier – Prices & Data Allowances Valid as of Feb. 21, 2014

 AT&TVerizonSprintT-MobileMetroPCSUS CellularVirginBoost
Indv. Plan
with some data
$45
300MB
$55
250MB
$55
1GB
$50
500MB***
$40
500MB
$80
300MB
$55
2.5GB***
$55**
2.5GB***
Indv. Plan
with 1 GB data
$70
1GB
$80
1GB
$55
1GB
$60
2.5GB***
$50
2.5GB
$90
1GB
$55
2.5GB***
$55**
2.5BG***
Family Plan
with some data
(2 smartphones/
2 feature)
 $70*
300MB
$155*
250MB
  $70
500MB/line
$180
300MB 
  
Family Plan
with 2GB data
(2 smartphone/
2 feature)
 $105
2GB
$190
2GB
  $90
2.5BG/line
$200
2GB
  
Family Plan
with some data
(4 smartphones)
 $160
10GB
$175*
250MB
$160
1GB/line
$100
500MB***/line
$140
500MB/line
$200
300MB 
  
Family Plan
with 4GB data
(4 smartphones
 $160
10GB
$230
4GB
$160
1GB/line
$140
2.5GB***/line
$180
2.5GB/line
$230
4GB
  
Additional cost
per month to
use smartphone
as a hotspot
 $0
Included
$0
Included
$10
1GB
$0
Included
n/a$0
Included
$15$10
Note: Chart shows the least expensive plan available to meet the criteria set forth: unlimited text, unlimited calling and specified data package. Prices provided by carrier, with exception of T-Mobile and Sprint, whose most recent prices were pulled from their website February 21, 2014. Pricing based on you bringing your own device, where possible. Some carriers do not support feature phones.