You heard it here, the markets are going higher! Okay that was in my best Jim Cramer voice. In reality, I am actually a little nervous about the markets. I guess I start to get nervous when family and friends usually begin to take more interest in stocks. Usually by the time my sister is talking about the markets it means that its probably moved significantly HIGHER and she along with other non-investors are late to the party. If you followed my last post on the Dow @ 14000 I gave you a video from billionaire investor, David Tepper. That video was from September 24, 2010 and in that video he indicated WHY the markets were going to go up. Since September 2010 until now, the markets have soared up over 31%. Yes believe it or not, I actually listened to this video when Tepper made his revelation that markets would go up because the Federal Reserve was continuing quantitative easing (QE). I won't bore you with what QE means, but my best analogy is he was saying the Fed is 'Making It Rain' in the club. And think about what happens to the person that benefits when its raining money in the club...the next day they go shopping. Well when the Fed 'Makes It Rain' on our economy guess what goes up, yes: STOCKS. Which is why he was telling us to buy back then. So in my mind...if you weren't picking up stocks back then you are a little late to the party and you do need to be mindful of this.
The next question is where do we go from here at Dow 14000. Well listen to our friend David Tepper on December 17, 2012 about where he thinks the markets are headed now.
Listen for the following beginning at 2:02 in the video:
- He talks about tailwinds or good things going for the economy (Housing, Car Sales)
- There is 1 Trillion Dollars Worth of Stimulus Coming from the Fed
- The Fed will keep it up until the Unemployment (Jobs) Rate Drops to 6.5% Target
I would say he is in the camp of markets going higher until the Fed stops. And considering that the Job Rate is at 7.9%, maybe the markets go HIGHER. But one thing I've learned is markets don't go straight up...so tread carefully. But he's not alone, my ears perked up when I heard that Ray Dalio shared a similar point of view...stay tuned.
Showing posts with label Jim Cramer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jim Cramer. Show all posts
Friday, February 08, 2013
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Market Meltdown - AIG/Morgan Stanley
I wanted to lead off with AIG and I hope that you had the opportunity to follow along last night when we made the following comment:
" AIG is now in focus and I will take the course of action that I should have taken with Lehman. AIG should be shorted as you see in my STOCKTRACKER PORTFOLIO because they also need cash and the Fed is in no position to lend it out. AIG is considered to big to fail but if I am JP Morgan and Citigroup why should we post $75Billion dollars by ourselves to pay for their mistakes. Even more importantly, AIG's ratings were downgraded tonight and that raises more implications where AIG has to come up with cash really quickly to pay contractual obligations that arise from ratings decreases."
Folks to emphasize the speed at which things are changing, I wanted to point that I learned about these latest developments last night after 545pm central and traded AIG during the aftermarket hours once I got home from work... and sold short AIG for $4.87. Between then and the opening of the market this morning we gained over 50%-80% in less than roughly 14 hours on timely information because the stock dropped to levels between $1.60 - $3.00. Jim Cramer has reminded us that BEARS AND BULLS MAKE MONEY...and PIGS get SLAUGHTERED, so I (bought to cover) the shares for a profit. AIG like most stocks then began to trade on rumors that it could get the funds it needed and moved up quickly to levels between $3.60-$4.40s. Well knowing the information that we obtained last night, all private equity firms had stepped away from the table and AIG was standing by itself unless it received help from the Fed. So I decided for the second time in less than 24 hours to short AIG... AGAIN I think the stock will fall because of the following:
1. There is not enough time for a buyout or AIG to sell assets - which would cause the stock to rise
2. Private companies have walked away and we know they will not fund the $75 Billion - which would have caused the stock to rise
3. The Fed has promised not to provide any more funding - which could cause the stock to rise
It appears our thinking was correct b/c NY Governor Patterson came out on CNBC urging that AIG needing additional capital quickly (Pt. 1), private equity walked away which brought the Fed back to the table (Pt. 2), and because AIG needs so much money and is considered too big to fail...the Fed WILL provide $85 Billion but they are requiring almost complete control of the company to ensure that all $85 Billion and more is returned to the Fed (Pt. 3) Well all these reasons point to the share price plunging because all scenarios leave the stockholders screwed. This stock may be trading below $1 tomorrow.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Morgan Stanley Breaking News
The street seems to have moved it sights to Morgan Stanley. Is there a RUN ON ALL BANKS!!! Late night reports say that MS is seriously considering whether the firm should remain solo or seek a merger with some large bank out there. There is alot of concern out there as the stock continues to swing back and forth. However, it appears that MS is watching all of this closely and does not want to make the same mistake that Lehman Brothers made.
" AIG is now in focus and I will take the course of action that I should have taken with Lehman. AIG should be shorted as you see in my STOCKTRACKER PORTFOLIO because they also need cash and the Fed is in no position to lend it out. AIG is considered to big to fail but if I am JP Morgan and Citigroup why should we post $75Billion dollars by ourselves to pay for their mistakes. Even more importantly, AIG's ratings were downgraded tonight and that raises more implications where AIG has to come up with cash really quickly to pay contractual obligations that arise from ratings decreases."
Folks to emphasize the speed at which things are changing, I wanted to point that I learned about these latest developments last night after 545pm central and traded AIG during the aftermarket hours once I got home from work... and sold short AIG for $4.87. Between then and the opening of the market this morning we gained over 50%-80% in less than roughly 14 hours on timely information because the stock dropped to levels between $1.60 - $3.00. Jim Cramer has reminded us that BEARS AND BULLS MAKE MONEY...and PIGS get SLAUGHTERED, so I (bought to cover) the shares for a profit. AIG like most stocks then began to trade on rumors that it could get the funds it needed and moved up quickly to levels between $3.60-$4.40s. Well knowing the information that we obtained last night, all private equity firms had stepped away from the table and AIG was standing by itself unless it received help from the Fed. So I decided for the second time in less than 24 hours to short AIG... AGAIN I think the stock will fall because of the following:
1. There is not enough time for a buyout or AIG to sell assets - which would cause the stock to rise
2. Private companies have walked away and we know they will not fund the $75 Billion - which would have caused the stock to rise
3. The Fed has promised not to provide any more funding - which could cause the stock to rise
It appears our thinking was correct b/c NY Governor Patterson came out on CNBC urging that AIG needing additional capital quickly (Pt. 1), private equity walked away which brought the Fed back to the table (Pt. 2), and because AIG needs so much money and is considered too big to fail...the Fed WILL provide $85 Billion but they are requiring almost complete control of the company to ensure that all $85 Billion and more is returned to the Fed (Pt. 3) Well all these reasons point to the share price plunging because all scenarios leave the stockholders screwed. This stock may be trading below $1 tomorrow.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Morgan Stanley Breaking News
The street seems to have moved it sights to Morgan Stanley. Is there a RUN ON ALL BANKS!!! Late night reports say that MS is seriously considering whether the firm should remain solo or seek a merger with some large bank out there. There is alot of concern out there as the stock continues to swing back and forth. However, it appears that MS is watching all of this closely and does not want to make the same mistake that Lehman Brothers made.
Sunday, October 07, 2007
URB Update - NAVTEQ, Advent Software, Emcore
Here is a quick weekend update, as I do a periodic review of some our stocks in the news. I like to follow our picks through major newspapers, websites, and analyst reviews. The following stocks were commented on in the last two weeks or have major updates that require our attention. The stocks I will highlight are Emcore (up 10% in two days), Navteq (takeover target), and Advent Software (up roughly 20% in less than two months)
I will start with the newest recommendation, Emcore (EMKR):
This is a love/hate relationship with this momentum stock. As you recall we got this stock at our price point just a week ago. And luckily, we keep an hawkish eye on our new picks, because HIGH risk momentum stocks are labeled that way for a reason. This stock has experience great gains in roughly two day, but on Friday we got some shocking news, at the worst time. Late Friday, it was released that EMKR received an noncompliance notice from the NASDAQ...this is bad news...very bad. So now we must watch this stock closely on Monday...first off, follow my lead and remove and cancel any price points that were initially set, yes including our Superman price. Next, if you don't have the time to follow this stock on Monday, place a Stop Loss to sell this stock at 9.75. Why this price, because it appears that this stock is being impacted by the bad news. We were up to the 10.70 range on Friday, but when the news was released after the market closed...the stock appears to have declined in aftermarket hours. The lowest aftermarket price disclosed on Yahoo Finance was 9.85. If the back news is picked up by the rest of the investors out there like us, we will see further declines. If we set a Stop Loss of 9.75 it will automatically sell the investment at that price. And yes, we will walk away from the investment and wait for the dust to settle. I would like to revisit this stock but we need to wait until EMKR is compliant without a doubt with the NASDAQ. I am unsure how this will impact their scheduled earnings announcement.
Here is an article from Marketwatch: EMKR said late Friday that it received a letter from Nasdaq on Oct. 2 stating that the company is not in compliance with the exchange's listing requirements, and that its stock is subject to delisting. The provider of compound semiconductor-based products said the notice was expected and was due to its inability to hold an annual shareholders' meeting by Sept. 30. Emcore plans to submit a letter to request an extension to regain compliance with Nasdaq's requirements.
Navteq (NVT):
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
NAVTEQ Corporation (NVT) has done a great job navigating for profits. Surging demand for maps in portable devices and some easier-than-expected expenses are contributing to outsized earnings gains. The company just reported a 72% profit gain and raised full-year guidance. Over the past 60 days, this year's estimates have jumped 19 cents to $1.52 per share. The past two quarters have averaged a 57% positive surprise. Analysts are projecting 20.4% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, NVT was listed as their aggressive growth pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)
Advent Software:
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
Advent Software, Inc. (ADVS) is enjoying phenomenal growth and its chart reflects it. The stock has been on a rocket ride since late July, after posting a 350% positive earnings surprise. Over the past 90 days, this year's earnings estimates have soared 12 cents to 33 cents per share. Analysts are projecting 27.8% earnings growth in 2008 and 21.7% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, ADVS was listed as their momentum pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)
Lessons Learned, this means we should have SOLD EMKR when you get up 10% in one day, we were dead on with NVT, and we will be holding onto ADVS because were were exactly right with this momentum pick. As Jim Cramer often reminds us Bears make money (ppl who make money when the market goes down), Bulls make money (ppl who make money when the market goes up), and Pigs get slaughtered. We were pigish on EMKR and we've learned.
I will start with the newest recommendation, Emcore (EMKR):
This is a love/hate relationship with this momentum stock. As you recall we got this stock at our price point just a week ago. And luckily, we keep an hawkish eye on our new picks, because HIGH risk momentum stocks are labeled that way for a reason. This stock has experience great gains in roughly two day, but on Friday we got some shocking news, at the worst time. Late Friday, it was released that EMKR received an noncompliance notice from the NASDAQ...this is bad news...very bad. So now we must watch this stock closely on Monday...first off, follow my lead and remove and cancel any price points that were initially set, yes including our Superman price. Next, if you don't have the time to follow this stock on Monday, place a Stop Loss to sell this stock at 9.75. Why this price, because it appears that this stock is being impacted by the bad news. We were up to the 10.70 range on Friday, but when the news was released after the market closed...the stock appears to have declined in aftermarket hours. The lowest aftermarket price disclosed on Yahoo Finance was 9.85. If the back news is picked up by the rest of the investors out there like us, we will see further declines. If we set a Stop Loss of 9.75 it will automatically sell the investment at that price. And yes, we will walk away from the investment and wait for the dust to settle. I would like to revisit this stock but we need to wait until EMKR is compliant without a doubt with the NASDAQ. I am unsure how this will impact their scheduled earnings announcement.
Here is an article from Marketwatch: EMKR said late Friday that it received a letter from Nasdaq on Oct. 2 stating that the company is not in compliance with the exchange's listing requirements, and that its stock is subject to delisting. The provider of compound semiconductor-based products said the notice was expected and was due to its inability to hold an annual shareholders' meeting by Sept. 30. Emcore plans to submit a letter to request an extension to regain compliance with Nasdaq's requirements.
Navteq (NVT):
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
NAVTEQ Corporation (NVT) has done a great job navigating for profits. Surging demand for maps in portable devices and some easier-than-expected expenses are contributing to outsized earnings gains. The company just reported a 72% profit gain and raised full-year guidance. Over the past 60 days, this year's estimates have jumped 19 cents to $1.52 per share. The past two quarters have averaged a 57% positive surprise. Analysts are projecting 20.4% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, NVT was listed as their aggressive growth pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)
Advent Software:
This analysis was provided by an analyst at Zacks.com -
Advent Software, Inc. (ADVS) is enjoying phenomenal growth and its chart reflects it. The stock has been on a rocket ride since late July, after posting a 350% positive earnings surprise. Over the past 90 days, this year's earnings estimates have soared 12 cents to 33 cents per share. Analysts are projecting 27.8% earnings growth in 2008 and 21.7% growth over the long term.
(Note: On 9/27, ADVS was listed as their momentum pick of the day in their daily "Profit from the Pros" e-newsletter)
Lessons Learned, this means we should have SOLD EMKR when you get up 10% in one day, we were dead on with NVT, and we will be holding onto ADVS because were were exactly right with this momentum pick. As Jim Cramer often reminds us Bears make money (ppl who make money when the market goes down), Bulls make money (ppl who make money when the market goes up), and Pigs get slaughtered. We were pigish on EMKR and we've learned.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
How do I get my Urb on!
Now I am going to go out on a limb and say the whole world is catching up to my personal movement. If you need a constant reminder, add the Urbanomics RSS Feed to you webpage or email inbox. It's a gameplan that slowly being rolled out and I hope you are taking advantage of it as we learn together. Even Yung Joc is jumping on the bandwagon with his new album titled "Hustlenomics". Hmmm...sound familar, Hustlenomics and Urbanomics. Now if that's not some inspirational stuff then I don't know what is. Like I said the movement is deep and there will be different versions of my plan. Joc's Hustlenomics is taking what he is passionate about, the rap game, and hustling his way to the top to achieve financial empowerment (maybe other things but I doubt it). Urbanomics is a different variation and the focus is empowering ourselves to make our lives better. It's somewhat of a hustle that focuses on spiritual, financial, emotional, and physical strength.
After reading my blog posts, its pretty easy to tell which area is my strong suit. Now I am no Jim Cramer, Suze Orman, Warren Buffet, or even Yung Joc but I get my hustle on by keeping up with the world around me, especially the financial markets. And the focus on Urbanomics is not to dumb it down but to make it easy for the average person to follow whats going in a way that we all can understand. A little bit of hip hop, urban flair to the old world of Wall Street.
For example if your favorite musical artist was a stock who would you be buying, holding, or selling based on how well they have been performing. My buys list would be:
Akon, Kanye West, T-Pain, Chris Brown, & Lil Wayne. I would be holding 50 Cent, Jay Z, & Nas. And personally I would be selling Britney Spears, Whitney Houston, Bobby Brown, and the Shop Boyz (Party Like a Rockstar).
After reading my blog posts, its pretty easy to tell which area is my strong suit. Now I am no Jim Cramer, Suze Orman, Warren Buffet, or even Yung Joc but I get my hustle on by keeping up with the world around me, especially the financial markets. And the focus on Urbanomics is not to dumb it down but to make it easy for the average person to follow whats going in a way that we all can understand. A little bit of hip hop, urban flair to the old world of Wall Street.
For example if your favorite musical artist was a stock who would you be buying, holding, or selling based on how well they have been performing. My buys list would be:
Akon, Kanye West, T-Pain, Chris Brown, & Lil Wayne. I would be holding 50 Cent, Jay Z, & Nas. And personally I would be selling Britney Spears, Whitney Houston, Bobby Brown, and the Shop Boyz (Party Like a Rockstar).
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Space Age Pimpin' - Space Age Portfolio
Ok folks time to get your portfolio Space Age Pimpin', well into the next few decades. What does this mean? By following the Space Age Portfolio, readers here at Urbanomics will finally be able to buy stock they are looking to hold long term. As most of you know I am your favorite Urban Economist and that's why you see my boys Eightball and MJG here ->
They were early pioneers in the rap game and I am pioneering the stock investment game with a little bit of Urban flavor. Yeah, I know that my boy Jim Cramer and the guys at Fast Money are pretty cool but they got nothin' on me. My strategy is like my basketball game...very versatile. I generally look for undervalued stocks that will experience some type of near term catalyst that will catapult the stock into a great momentum trade and turnaround story. Want proof, follow my recommendations that have been posted: MMS, CLCT, MOBE, each purchased in the last 6 months with returns over 25%. Need more, I own 2 stocks that will like be bought out this year after merger talks are over: Sallie Mae (SLM) & Cytyc (CYTC). But on to what you want to hear. What about the stocks that will have your back for the long term.
Here goes, the goal of this portfolio will be to pick stocks across a diverse group of industries, that are best in class, and have the opportunity for both price appreciation and income potential. Let's start with my favorite industry so far, OIL. With this group I have to go with
ConocoPhillips...yes I am
piggybacking their most recent upgrade by Bank of America and it does hurt that they just disclosed a stock buyback program of roughly 15billion.
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Next, I am going out to one of my long term income potential plays. You will benefit because real estate stock is a REIT and those dividend payments can help grow our portfolio. GGP also operates in two segments retail and master planned communities. So you get retail, land owner, and landlord all in on. Real estate has taken a little bit of a beating so jump on board, now.
General Growth Properties (GGP)
No long write up for this one, because I've already told you why to own it but add this retail player to your portfolio.
Best Buy (BBY)
Wrap up your portfolio with exposure to Utilities. Why?...Because it is too damn hot outside. Man and with this heat wave out there what is every one doing at home turning up the Air Conditioner. And when the A/C goes on, the utility man gets PAID. Ka-Ching. So load up with this exchange traded fund (ETF):
XLU
They were early pioneers in the rap game and I am pioneering the stock investment game with a little bit of Urban flavor. Yeah, I know that my boy Jim Cramer and the guys at Fast Money are pretty cool but they got nothin' on me. My strategy is like my basketball game...very versatile. I generally look for undervalued stocks that will experience some type of near term catalyst that will catapult the stock into a great momentum trade and turnaround story. Want proof, follow my recommendations that have been posted: MMS, CLCT, MOBE, each purchased in the last 6 months with returns over 25%. Need more, I own 2 stocks that will like be bought out this year after merger talks are over: Sallie Mae (SLM) & Cytyc (CYTC). But on to what you want to hear. What about the stocks that will have your back for the long term.
Here goes, the goal of this portfolio will be to pick stocks across a diverse group of industries, that are best in class, and have the opportunity for both price appreciation and income potential. Let's start with my favorite industry so far, OIL. With this group I have to go with
ConocoPhillips...yes I ampiggybacking their most recent upgrade by Bank of America and it does hurt that they just disclosed a stock buyback program of roughly 15billion.
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Next, I am going out to one of my long term income potential plays. You will benefit because real estate stock is a REIT and those dividend payments can help grow our portfolio. GGP also operates in two segments retail and master planned communities. So you get retail, land owner, and landlord all in on. Real estate has taken a little bit of a beating so jump on board, now.
General Growth Properties (GGP)
No long write up for this one, because I've already told you why to own it but add this retail player to your portfolio.
Best Buy (BBY)
Wrap up your portfolio with exposure to Utilities. Why?...Because it is too damn hot outside. Man and with this heat wave out there what is every one doing at home turning up the Air Conditioner. And when the A/C goes on, the utility man gets PAID. Ka-Ching. So load up with this exchange traded fund (ETF):
XLU
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