Please Don't Kill My Investing Vibe...

Thanks to Kendrick Lamar for producing one of my favorite tracks out there and describing my approach right now to life and investments.  Plainly said, I don't want anyone messing up my vibe of working hard, making quick and thoughtful decisions and reflecting on it all to ensure that I'm focusing on things that will make me better.  My investing vibe right now is to sit back and ride out this amazing economic and stock market recovery.  I remember how bad both were years back and we must take a moment to give props to resilient people (workers), companies, and yes even 'some' of our politicians that promoted a pro-growth environment.  I firmly believe if we had engaged in less stimulus and more cost cutting we would've been in BIG trouble.  This is what makes the field of economics and behavioral analysis so interesting to me. But before I put you to sleep...follow my vibe:


In order to describe Economics 101 and our current situation I will use a sports analogy which helps me try to understand and possibly forecast where the economy and stock market are headed.  Here goes my attempt using Payton Manning as the athlete.

1) Crash - When Peyton Manning went down with his injury many people thought he would never return. Similar to the stock market

2) Stimulus - When Peyton told the world he had not 1, not 2, but 4 elective surgeries to assist in his recovery we thought he was crazy to subject his body to that! Just like when the Obama Administration and Ben Bernanke discussed bailouts, stimulus and Quantitative Easing we thought they were crazy for trying unheard of tactics to recover the economy

3) Rehab - Peyton begins a rigorous rehab effort to return back to normal!  This is the same economy's slow but steady rehab which is observed through good but not great jobs and economic numbers. In short the numbers keep getting better.

4) Return - Peyton's return was marked with skepticism. We were scared for the first hit and wondered if he could make it through an entire season.  Oddly enough the economy is in the EXACT same place.  It's back and has taken a few hits but we are skeptical how long it can last.

5) Numbers - Peyton played an entire season last year and put fabulous numbers up for the Denver Broncos.

So will the economy and stock market continue to put up great numbers like Peyton did? If you believe so then you should continue to be invested and look for your opportunities which is what I'm doing. If you believe that it's only a few hits away from being unstable then you need to sell some stocks and retreat to a safer place.