Did You Say Narcos...Or Anadarko

Interesting?!? When they interview sports stars, is it odd they often say: "If I could do anything else I would be a rapper.   Then the big NBA game comes on and I see E-40 cheering on Golden State, Drake court side in Toronto, and YG and 2 Chains on the court at the end of Los Angeles games.  Well to take a page from their playbook, investors wanna be both!  My investing game in basketball terms feels like I'm in a zone.  Or maybe more like I'm playing zone...like the defense.  The zone defense is known to be safe or even cautious as it does not require the players to exert a lot of energy when defending but requires you be consistent, diligent, and opportunistic.  I am cautious on the markets as they continue to grind higher.  I still think the business climate (due to the tax cuts) and job hiring is trending up. Further, I think the market will melt up even more IF a deal with China (any deal) gets done.  But I think signs in housing and other areas tells me, the dynasty is almost over.  So what does my zone defense look like?  Well here is a run-down of my zone defense portfolio in Game 5 of a 7 game series:

Coaching (Doc Rivers, Phil Jackson, Lenny Wilkens) - Like the great coaches listed here, I try to remain level headed, even zen like, on where the market currently is. I feel like we are in Game 5 or 6 of a 7 game series. So I'm coaching my team (oops my portfolio) to be ready for the downturn...we don't like being blown out.

Guards (Chris Paul, Damian Lillard) - Like CP3 and Dame, my PG is small but packs a punch! So my point guard is Collectors Universe (CLCT), this is a small cap company that I have been overweight for a VERY long time. And they don't seem to disappoint. They had a bad quarter and Wall Street punished them awhile back dropping them from $30 to eventually below $15. If you've been following us here you'll remember when we picked then up during the recession of 2008 at the $4 dollar level. And for us they mint coins...almost literally and grade "mint-condition" baseball cards and collectibles. So that means steady cash streams coming in, a nice dividend and an appreciating stock.  If you read the previous conference calls, part of the bad quarter was slow China demand and a big time investment in a new corporate HQ. Well guess what, those costs related to the HQ are behind them and the last two quarters have been positive. I picked up more shares after the HQ build-out because for a small cap company I felt it made a difference in their earnings. I like my PG so much that I bought more Collectors and put it in my 401K plan for the long-haul. Cheers to CP3, Lillard and CLCT!!

At the other guard position, I rotate the Young Guns. This group is spring loaded and receiving trade offers as other teams want my players. If this were International football (or what Americans call soccer) these players are hitting the the transfer window, or season where other teams pay top dollar for my players:

Anadarko Petroleum (APK) - I picked on Andarko as Chevron was showing interest and now there is a bidding war that has ensued. And look who jumped into the fray... my mentor Warren Buffet is lending money to Occidental Petroleum to outbid Chevron. If was just announced because some investment firm tracks jets and saw that the Occidental jet flew to Omaha...really who has that much free time!!! The Narcos are circling Anadarko. Looks like my draft pick may get bought out soon.  My guess is Occidental wins out with a sweeter bid and the Buffet brand name (we'll see).

Arconic (ARNC) - An earlier trade fell thru but this player has been working on his skills. Dropping down to about $18, and putting up big numbers by bouncing back to the $22 range. I may be getting suitors coming to the table soon and now they pay more than the $23 range to buy this stud out.

Tesla (TSLA)- Like the Nets Guard De'Angelo Russell, everyone has an opinion. So after the terrible earnings call, I took a chance here. Some may second guess my value call, but along with Ron Baron, and others, I just personally think Tesla is a transformation company that will explode. Mr. Russell who was left for dead...is now a NBA All-Star this year due to his hard work and transformation. For example, I drive a Plug-In Hybrid BMW X5 e40 (fully loaded 😎and 600 mpgs) and trust me the experience is nice, I'm sure the Tesla models are even nicer because they dominate the electric vehicle space.

Qualcomm (QCOM) - When I want to play a savvy veteran, I turn to QCOM. Again some questioned the value here when they were battling Apple the goliath of the tech industry. I wish I would have gave QCOM a bigger contract because they went to Game 7 with Apple and won a $4.5B settlement!! A stock in the mid-50s exploded up into the $80s leaving me happy for the player and bummed I didn't invest even more. What a shocker.

JD.com (JD) - This stock is like a chance on the player suspended for taking performance enhancing drugs, TWICE. First, the tariff issues with China took all the steam out of this stock. Then the 2nd item was the CEO was accused of assault and battery. The stock was hovering around $30 and then tanked into the low 20s. It appears the Minnesota prosecutors did not choose to prosecute after new videos surfaced recently appearing to help the CEOs case.  Now basically breakeven, this player may spring back into Player of the Year discussions if the China negotiations with Trump are finalized.

On the bench: I have one player preparing to pack his bags: Celgene (CELG) - they were acquired and soon we'll part ways with a nice contributor.

And Sprint (S), Sprint keeps getting offers to play overseas for T-Mobile but the FTC (like the stock version of the NBA Commissioner) is telling me that the deal is unfair. Funny he doesn't say that to Verizon or AT&T the biggest cell phone carriers. Let a player get his money Commish?!?!  Approve the deal and let me bask in the glory of my draft pick prowess.

Next time, I will go into my Development League team: Newell Brands (NWL), Stitch Fix (SFIX), and Colony Capital (CLNY)

Finding Value in Media and Sports Stocks

Time to get back to the basics. I've been laying the ground work for how to build a successful business, but it's time to get back to the basics of investing.  Remember, investing is something every person should consider once you pay down your debts and establish a rainy day fund (savings account).  In my perfect social media world, people would go viral for:

- Paying off their school debt

- Putting off unnecessary purchases

- Improving their credit score

- Hitting their retirement goals 

While I personally turn off the tweets and so-called influencers, I do not deny the irrational impulses of the masses. Everyone wants instant gratification, personalization, and to think they are influencing someone else's opinion.  So I try to keep it simple by recognizing the trend: "Content Is King".  Some of my recent investments over the last few years have been media AND social media stocks:

Social Media - Twitter (TWTR); Facebook (FB); Snap (SNAP)

Media - Time Warner (Acquired); Time Warner Cable (I think Acquired), AMC Theatres (AMC); ROKU (ROKU); Twenty First Century Fox (Recently Acquired); Verizon (VZ); Disney (obtained through FOXA shares)

Sports - Manchester United

My investing logic is simple. With cutting the cord coming and the fact that I DVR record and stream most of my television viewing due to my busy schedule, I want to own the content and pipes.  My influencers love Netflix, Apple TV and Roku and I buy the content that they are paying top dollar for to watch on all their devices.  Because everyone is giving themselves (free content) away for free on Instagram, Snapchat, Facebook, and YouTube for cheap...my investments are focusing on content specifically Sports.  Why!! Because Sports is one of the last few things that people WANT to watch live.  Take March Madness, NFL, NBA, and the English Premier League. This is amazing content bringing lots of viewers to the media stocks listed above. The games and players are the real influencers and it actually drives more business.  You do not have to believe me, just look at the how your favorite politician has flipped in the last decade. Very soon, a majority of states will allow legal sports betting to cash in on the trend.  If you do don't know now ya know: Fan Duel, Draft Kings are partnering with major sports leagues to get everyone betting Billions of dollars.  What am I watching next:

Media - CBS (CBS), Liberty Media, Madison Square Garden

Sports Betting - Ceasars Entertainment (CZR)  

The value is there for good content. I owned and watched Twenty First Century Fox's stock skyrocket as multiple companies fought to buy it out and Disney eventually paid top dollar. Then I inherited a new company with AMAZING content Disney. Every movie my daughter watches 50 times over are Disney movies. And sports is the Top Dog! 

URB Prediction: So I think Ceasars and their big bets on online gambling are good for business and they will be bought out in the next few years. If the NBA, NFL, and MLB were smart...they would form a consortium and purchase Ceasars outright.

A 21 Savage Look Into – Business Income, Risk, & Expenses

A Conclusion to Side Hustle 101 Series 

Income

Music has always played a big part in people’s life.  Reading through my blog over the years, you will see that it is always top of mind for me. So when I drop some knowledge on the subject of income I could reference:

·         21 Savage – A Lot

·         YG – Big Bank

·         Jay Z – Big Pimpin

But I’d rather hit you with a simple rule I learned I learned from Warren Buffett: “Never Lose Money”. His second rule: “Remember Rule #1”. J  This rule is so crucial I use it as a baseline for my other pillars now:

·         “Never Lose Faith”

·         “Never Stop Learning”

·         “Stay Healthy”

Make sure your business and investments make more money than they lose and life becomes a lot easier. Stress over risks to your business and try to get the best return on your investment when you have expenses.

Risk Management

I spend most of my time stressing over things that will derail my pillars in life and my investments. If I’m eating unhealthy, why not cut back on sugar (easier said than done). If I want to reduce stress, why not focus on prioritization, time management, prayer, and meditation. You get the picture, but many people don’t think about risks UNTIL well they hit them in the face. A few examples:

·         Boeing – Recent crashes that have taken hundreds of lives may possibly be linked to not updating airplane software and a lack of pilot training.

·         Equifax – How ironic is it that the company responsible for our credit scores, history, and maintaining so much of our personal data is hacked ( A close second: Ashley Madison’s website hack and they promote discreet relationships for married people)

·         Lululemon – How smart was it for an athleisure company executive to mock curvier women who wear their clothes when that is your primary customer base

·         Netflix – How about when you do nothing wrong like Netflix, but you have the new “risk” that Apple’s new TV streaming service is now dubbed the ‘Netflix killer’

Well I think you get the point…consider all risks and focus on the biggest ones…your company depends on it.

Expenses

This is no one’s favor subject so let’s make it fun by keeping it simple. There is a reason why so many businesses were started in garages…for the free rent J So stop trying to play the part until you actually have money rolling in. Can you work out of your home or garage and forgo that pricey co-working space.? Do you have expensive software when you have one customer? I saw a show where a small business was going to trade shows every year and losing money (why go?).  Don’t get me started on a company car!!. I constantly evaluate: Office Location vs Co-Working vs Home-based; Software vs Spreadsheet; and Personal Car vs Company Car. Grow your business and make sure that next expense helps increase your bottom-line in the future.   After two good years, I decided to pick up the fully loaded BMW X5 e40 company car (I still have my personal SUV because that's for personal use). In the words of J. Cole on 21 Savage’s “A Lot” à ‘How Many Faking They Streams…I Can See Behind the Smoke and Mirrors People ain’t as Big as They Seem”.   Don't fake your streams and get a car you and your business can't support. Stay humble and grow your business smartly. Peace

Pics of my Company Car (and yes I plug in to get roughly 600 mpg...call me cheap)

Side Hustle 101 - Are You Open for Business?

My last post was entirely dedicated to ensuring that you have your legal affairs in order.  Many people get started and don't understand the risks a business may pose to their wallets. That's why business formation and how you choose to legally organize or incorporate is key. So here is my list of items to slowly check off to ensure you "Are Open for Business":

1) Legal Document Setup - If you don't feel comfortable documenting your own articles of organization, make sure you get help from from your local Small Business Association, online legal services (like Legal Zoom), or if more complicated a lawyer.  I went the route of documenting my own articles of organization for the challenge and found many helpful resources on the Internet. AND don't forget to designate who are all of your managing directors are and clearly specify the percentage of ownership within the company.

2) Domain Registration - In the digital world, it's critical to have a unique name and formally register your domain name.  YES, every good name is taken, but get creative why do you think we all have Google, Bing, and Yahoo at the top of our minds when on Internet. Your domain will allow you to have your own email domain address and website.

3) Email and Physical Address Setup - While not easy to setup, use your domain to get a non GMAIL, LIVE, or YAHOO address. It's not an immediate need but this addition to your business helps give you a professional look.  While not critical, many people often use remote mailboxes and co-working spaces to keep the professional look on all legal documents.

4) Taxes, Accounting, Invoicing, Expenses - I spent 3+ months reading the tax code. I personally think this is THE MOST important section of business to understand...but I am biased as I have an accounting background. By reading the IRS tax code, it helped me understand what legal structure I wanted to form, when to pay my estimated taxes, how to form and fund my 401K plan, what expenses I should consider.

Other key items items needing to be setup:
- Website
- Phone
- Logo / Letterhead / Business Cards
- Bank Account Setup
- Methods for accepting payments
- Internet and Connecting your Business
- Computers
- Staffing

My rule of thumb is to crawl first.  Spend a few months and get the first 4 items listed above rock solid. Then add things only as they become necessary. If you are an internet based business add a website immediately. When it is time to expand then you can learn to walk and run. I hope you found this helpful. I'll write one more post of the accounting and expenses and we'll get back investing and other fun subjects.

Side Hustle 101 - Own Your Business

I wanted to continue my Side Hustle series with a discussion on owning a business.  The series kicked off with a previous post on "Starting Your Business" which serves as a reminder take your time to find a business that is unique, fills a need, and can profitably grow over time.  If it's not unique, it could eventually be copied one day and you don't want to compete by having to lower your price. If it does not fill a need, customers may not see the value in repeatedly buying your product or service. If your business does not turn a profit in 2-3 years, then you may have a hobby (instead of a business) that is exciting but will also suck you dry over time.  Again my challenge to you is to spend an enormous amount of time developing a business plan then find people from all different backgrounds to poke holes in your ideas which will make you and your plan stronger.

I joke, if you can't explain to me what you do in one or two sentences THEN you may not even know exactly what your business is.  I didn't truly appreciate the value of a well-thought out mission statement until I listened to recently retired PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi on a podcast simply describe how she viewed and chose to run PepsiCo's various businesses. The company's products range from salty snacks and sugary sodas to juices, water and breakfast food.  On the podcast, I was memorized by how she artfully danced around the conflicting products by saying: "We make things that are Fun For You (salt and sugar), Better for You (Oatmeal, diet), and Good for You (water). In those few words, I could envision how they brought Doritos, Mountain Dew, Diet products, water, and breakfast foods all together under one umbrella.  The genius in this vision is they want you to have a Pepsi product in your hand NO matter the event NOR time of day.

Owning Your Business
Take calculated risks and get your business up and running without trying to spend tons of money. I can't believe how often I ask someone: "Why do you have a fancy business card, calendars, computers, and chairs if your business is not making money?" Our challenge is NOT to worry about looking the part, simply hustle until you are doing so well that the business forces you to become more efficient. This theme applies to many things in life: Spirituality, Sports, Volunteering, Business...just compete | just serve | just do work. 

I'll end with make sure you "Own Your Business". This is a crucial step in setting up your business, also called business formation.  You must determine what business structure fits best for you:

• Sole Proprietorship
• General Partnership
• Limited Liability Company (LLC) - Solo Member or Multi-Member
• Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) 
• Corporation structure - C Corp or S Corp

Invest in yourself and know the difference from a legal and tax perspective so that you can simply focus on your business.  Many people forget that you can change the business structure over time as your company grows. My personal example is I have a very simple business and was perfectly fine being a Sole Proprietor because finding work as a consultant wasn't difficult and I wasn't taking on lots of risk.  Well two years later, things are going well and talk of expansion and more growth means a different structure may be needed to manage the new risks I see on the horizon (bigger clients, more services, personal liability).

Why do I do this: Because a long time ago I told myself if I were to bet on anything, I would bet on myself. I know my strengths and weaknesses. Growing up not well off, I decided if I'm going to lose anything (especially money) I only want one person to blame: Me. This was reinforced over time through the greats like Warren Buffet, Oprah Winfrey, Michael Jordan, Jay Z, Dr. Dre, Sean Combs, Master P and now even J. Cole. They've talked about being independent, owning your own masters, negotiating your own deal, being bout it bout it. That what drives me because I've been working most of my life to get to a point where I can make deals on my own terms. Reducing debt, passing up on "wants" as much as possible, valuing every dollar, and investing in yourself will put you on the path that says: If I ever feel like my salary isn't right, my offer is too low, or I'm being disrespected, I'm gonna GO OUT AND NEGOTIATE A BETTER DEAL FOR MYSELF.  And if you can do it better: GO BUILD THAT NEXT BUSINESS AND YOU CALL THE SHOTS.  If the timing is not right, don't worry...be patient and improve your skills constantly until you're ready to take the next leap.

2018 YEAR IN REVIEW – A YEAR OF GROWTH...A YEAR OF OPTIONS

2018 was quite an interesting year for stocks, the economy, and for me.  Before we close the book on this year, it’s also fitting to look back and reflect.  This is bit of my spiritual side speaking but for my financial folks it’s a moment to stop and balance your books. If you’ve read my previous posts, I talk about the importance of goal setting.  Now is the time to reflect on whether you hit those targets across ALL of your Pillars. Did you grow your spirit, mental fortitude, physical well-being, and finances? 

When I take a moment to reflect, I see some small strides I’ve made which I KNOW I will carry on into the New Year. My past year was the year of the FITBIT, where I became physically healthier (even playing basketball one a week) by challenging myself mentally to meet my daily health goals and give up unneeded foods, sugars, etc. I even gave up drinking (with the exception of a HS reunion event) and I was surprised I was up to that challenge (considering Little Jon wrote the Patron song specifically for me).  I concluded my financial challenge of renting, for the last 1.5 years, a house that did not meet most of our needs BUT it allowed us to SAVE and meet our new budget goals (2 paid off vehicles that are over 14 years old).  Again, an exercise in mental toughness for those who struggle with sacrificing today for a bigger picture.  Next, I personally want to thank my family for the changes they made this year to help us meet our family financial budget. This is turning into an effortless exercise (NOTE: IT DID NOT START THAT WAY) of developing a budget at the beginning of the year, then as a family we have to log all of our actual expenses. We use only one joint family account for family planning so there are NO SECRET EXPENSES that crop up (if we didn’t budget for it don’t bring it up and it’s not an item we are buying). In summary, we MET THE BUDGET FOR OUR HOME!!  Another goal met was buying our 2^nd Home! This was accomplished by those seeds we sowed a few years back…renting our first home, budgeting and sacrificing for our new home which took a few years to save up for the deposit needed.   

Many will overlook that these activities crisscross through a few of my Pillars; rarely does a challenge involve just one.  Taking on these goals has made me mentally stronger, a decent multi-tasker, better prioritizing and dealing with RISK.  I am equally proud of the last two items which have fueled my growth the most this past year.  # 1 – I took on the project of building out a consulting practice after companies continued to approach me for my skillset.  I still work in Corporate America but on my terms which has made me SIGNIFICANTLY less stressed (Pillar: Spiritual), in better health (Pillar: Physical), make more money (Pillar: Financial), and more technically skilled (Pillar: Mental/Education) then I have ever been.  #2 – I explored options for the first time in portfolio and it was a big reason for my investing success this year.  I have been studying it for months, used a fake portfolio of money to test trading strategies out, and implemented BASIC trades that have complimented my LONG-TERM VALUE oriented approach.  I repeat, I was afraid and had never traded an option contract in my life.  This year I’ve executed over 80+ option contract trades in a way that I believe lowers my investing risk, especially considering I’ve told people to be cautious because we are in the 10^th year of a stock market rally.  In summary, always stay balanced, clear minded, and focused. Help others yet use common sense and be prudent. The survivors in "The Walking Dead" did not survive from being lazy...you always have options and choices in life. Stay blessed.

For my reflection, and those of you that come here for the stocks my Financial YE Trading Review:

What Worked?

VALUE – By sticking with my value approach, I barely bought or sold ANY stocks in the last year. I sold 3 stocks this year that I held for more than 1 year because I felt the markets were reaching their tops.

Apple (AAPL) – I sold my entire position of Apple @ $200. Remember when we bought under $100. So long old friend until we meet again.

PBF Energy (PBF) – I sold energy which shot up earlier in the year. Now energy is back down to its lows. We’ll have to scrape the bottom of the barrel and see if its value time to pick shares back up.  PBF was in the low $20s and I sold $47. Funny at the time I thought I got out a little early.

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) – I owned this stock because I used to own XM Satellite radio, yes since 2005.  I watched the charts hit highs of $6.62 and decided to part ways after 13 years.  In a strange twist of irony, I recently purchased Pandora…who is being acquired by SIRI. We may be reunited again J

OPTIONS – My experiment in options was helpful this year.  When the market is up 10 years straight, the only thing that is certain is VOLATILITY.

            Volatility Index (VXX) – I traded the VXX over 5 times successfully for big gains. My only reflection was to bet bigger.

                Options – I traded over 80+ options contracts. I needed to test my strategy okay. We traded small amounts for high success. I might be above an 85%  success rate. Time to ramp up

DISRUPTION – I traded options contracts 3 sectors that were ripe for Mergers and had a handful of option contracts that did well when the stocks were acquired by other companies:

KLX Inc. (KLXI)

Dell Technologies Inc. (DVMT)

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) * I believe the deal is still pending, but my options were sold

Red Hat, Inc. (RHT)                                 

Time Warner Inc. (TWX)

What Kind of Worked?

Radisys Corporation (RSYS) – I held RSYS for years. Sold some during the good times and closely followed the quarterly earnings. They were in the process of turning the company around but had the RISK my small consulting practice has. They were reliant on 1 or 2 big vendors. The biggest being Verizon. When VZ abandoned their unlimited data strategy for a while it hurt RSYS earnings. I felt vindicated when the acquisition was announced and I believe Reliance Jio purchased this company early as 5G is now taking off a major strategy for all telecom companies. So I feel vindicated they were purchased and rebought before the acquisition. BUT I did take a loss on this position.

What did Not Work?

I have 3 simple lessons learned that all investors must heed:

1)       If the Government is MAD at another Country, GET OUT of those option contracts: I had two Chinese stocks that got beat up once the Trump Administration decided to impose tariffs on China:

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) – I had a profitable position, up huge. Trump Administration began their tariff stance and China retaliated by NOT APPROVING the Qualcomm merger of NXP. Qualcomm needed approval from 9 countries

JD.com, Inc. (JD) – Another contract that was positive, and you know the rest.

2)      Don’t trade options contracts into earnings season:

Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) – I got busy at work and should have exited this position before earning. Went from being up big, to a small loss. Lesson learned

3)      Don’t hold option contracts when the market begins declining:

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TEVA) – I was up by enough points that I was going to simply let the contract expire profitable. I don’t think you understand, Teva was at $23 or higher and I had a contract for $17. During the market downturn, I saw the unbelievable happen in a matter of 2 weeks. Again went from being up to taking a small loss.

Caesars Entertainment Corporation (CZR)

Side Hustle 101 - Start Your Business

Started from the bottom...now we're here.  If you are starting a new business, I suggest investing your first few weeks or months developing your business plan by defining what product or service offering you plan to provide for customers. You should know if your business primary focuses on businesses (B2B) or is your focus on consumers (B2C). I often ask people how will you make money, what does it cost (expenses and overhead) to make money, and how many competitors are out there trying to take business away from your you and your company. My favorite is can your business be easily copied? Lastly what is your exit plan or at what price would you sell if you were made an offer. 

I've had a chance to participate in a few discussions or pitches and often you will hear the same responses from new and experienced business persons:
- My business is unique
- I do not know my costs, but it will not cost too much OR these costs are needed
- My services are for everyone
- I do not have any competition because I will work harder
- This business is not for sale

I do not blame anyone that responds this way because it is often human nature and when you start a business it is personal and many treat the company like their baby. But when it comes time to invest and I am running through my risk management checklist, I mentally note that this entrepreneur may not be strong in running a business and bad governance is a never a good investment.  I usually ask one question which ends my investment process: "Can I see your business plan?"

So my challenge to entrepreneurs: Learn to Develop A Business Plan.

Then have as many people as possible read it, question it, and be comfortable going back to the drawing board when tough question arise. Also, make a mental note that if you respond with one of the common answers above you may have more work to do.  Then, I recommend watching as many episodes as possible of really good business shows like "Shark Tank" or the "The Profit" that are featured on CNBC.  Chances are you will hear someone with a similar business idea as yourself and it serves as a really good opportunity to prepare yourself on how to answer those questions AND see your competition in action.

This applies to entrepreneurs, your real estate business if you're a landlord, and your financial investments if you're a money manager.  Have a plan and know your numbers (the budget).  Who cares what the hustle is as long as it's making you money (and legal).  And as Mr. Wonderful said from the investment show "Shark Tank" if your business is not making money in 3+ years...it's basically a hobby. I tend to agree as it aligns with Warren Buffett's number 1 rule to investing: "Never Lose Money".

My Personal Experience: I've started a consulting practice which has been thriving now for 2 years. I've kept it barebones and will expand when the risks make sense, so the math is simple not much expenses but I the profits are more than I would make as a salaried employee (accounting for benefits and retirement planning) I have complimented that with a rental property that I manage, and a financial investment portfolio that I manage. All of these need a well thought out plan and when the risks don't equal the reward it's time for me to walk away or exit from any or ALL of these investments.