CRONOS | ROKU | COLLECTORS UNIVERSE - 20% Increases After Earnings

ROKU - The reason I'm not active on social media is so it doesn't distract my investing. People tend to push their views on each other --- they call it their platform nowadays. I tend to allow data, research and science do the talking. For example, I wrote a post back in March about how we needed to aggressively defend against the virus. When it was clear our administration had no interest in taking the prudent steps I saw other countries taking, I didn't go Batman and start yelling on social media. I told my community to invest and go in Robin mode. Robinhood that is, we invest in things that unfortunately will benefit in this tough environment. Invest and then plant seeds in your community. 

Roku hit a low of high $50s and now just topped $250 after it reported earnings on Nov 5th. Just a few days ago this stock was touching $200, see the red highlight below. 

 

I have been speculating, guilty as charged, placing additional bets this stock wouldn't go parabolic before it reported earnings. It was a tight window and the trade worked beautifully. I saw a trend yesterday and pulled out after making over $5.5K in about a month on this stock. I'm glad I did b/c you could see this trending higher in the graph above. I put the trade on and took the trade off @ 3:59 yesterday, 1 minute before the market closed! It would not have gone well if I held on until today as the stock has gone parabolic baby!!! Not advised for rookies but how you play both sides as I actually own the stock as well and benefiting from this ride up. Here's that trade, time to find another trade to make: 

Stock                                                     Purch Date        Sold Date                   Gain   % Gain

CRONOS - Legalized marijuana was on the ballot in roughly 5 states. Again, I don't judge I just bet on the direction that the people's will is taking them. #countthevotes

Trust me people are moving to medical and personal marijuana use and less collateral damage on communities of color because they were in the past getting locked up for selling something that may not be legal. Cronos is up 20% and do to the % short (or ppl betting against this stock) there will be a party to get out of that trade leading this stock and other MJ stocks higher.

COLLECTORS UNIVERSE Thank you Warren for teaching me patience. I've owned this stock at least since 2008. Through the good and the bad I've held with strong conviction and received a healthy dividend and now I'm reaping the benefits of the growth or appreciation. Congratulations Collectors you are my first ever 10 bagger as billionaire investor Mario Gabelli often says. This stock have increased over 10 tenfold for me and proof as to why we should defy labels, boxes, and barriers!!!

 I'm investing my way out and teaching other people that look like me how to do the same. Just this year alone you could have been up over 700%, and the reason I know this is because I added this stock this year to my 401K plans and advised others who added it to their portfolios.

Know Your Worth - Grow Your Business and Stock Portfolio

COULD YOU DEFINE YOUR WORTH

The National Football League (NFL) season is finally upon us. I never get a chance to say I told you in my line of work, risk management and cybersecurity, but at least here I can. Does anyone find is striking that the NBA setup something similar to what I described back in March and their league is thriving...a locked down bubble. As a risk management professional, I get called crazy or told I'm worrying about nothing but there is usually always solutions for my customers to reduce their risk...they just have to determine if the cost is worth it. 

The NFL has had a chance to watch the success of the NBA and they've decided some stadiums will have NO fans and others will be at roughly 25% capacity because the game must go on...but I ask at what cost. I remind you that without an NBA bubble like scenario the National Hockey League had to start and stop their league play multiple times and ended up moving their games up to good ole Canada --- a safer environment for the players health. Major League Baseball has had a number of instances where outbreaks have happened in various clubhouses as it harder to create a bubble with a much larger player base. One thing is for sure, the games will go on because there is toooooo much money to be made. Need more proof, look at the Big 10, a college conference for teams mainly in the midwestern part of the US. They assessed the risk and canceled the fall football season. The backlash has been swift --- cities, fans who are bored, and even some players are less concerned about the outbreaks on campus and more worried about Ohio State's revenue impact to the city of Columbus or the University of Michigan projected revenue loss. It would be funny if it weren't true, but I'm afraid it is --- many schools require players to sign a waiver and that's where I come in. Risk Manager to the rescue -- a waiver ensures that if any of the players get sick or die, the player (or their family) cannot hold the schools liable for their health concerns. So I ask you, how much would it take for you to put your health at risk and play a season knowing you could get sick??

Would you be like college football players --- and play for free?

If it came down to it, do you truly know your worth? That is the question I wanted to pose to my readers today. When I was a young lad coming out of college, I had these rigid set of principles...imagine that. I used to tell anyone that listened or that worked for me --- you need to test the job market about every 3 years. It's easy to get complacent and fall in love with a routine of "working" everyday while others are hustling, learning new skills and challenging companies to pay them what they are worth. There are good reasons to no rock the boat and stay put...but what's the harm in Mr. Market telling you what you are valued. I got complacent for a few years and got into a zone where your employer convinces you that it needs you soooo badly things would go wrong if you ever took vacation and terribly wrong if I ever left. Well I'm here to tell you that companies move on and time moves on...no one person is that valuable and if you are you better be sure they are paying you a king's ransom. So I reminded myself a few years ago that Mr. Market determines my value and my employer simply needs to determine if they agree whether I'm worth it...it's not personal. Many people are quietly cheering this statement at home but if I asked you whether sports players are overpaid...everyone is quick to say yes. haha I wonder if it's because the majority of athletes in some of our biggest sports leagues are minorities...people of color. 

If I asked you to work for NO pay because I'll give you pay for your training courses, would you take it?  Probably NOT. Then why do people get up in arms at college players making billions of dollars for college sports but not making a dime...even off of their likeness.

When Cowboy fans and fans in general are in an uproar about Dak Prescott rejecting a contract extension worth roughly $33 Million a year --- he's called a overpaid crybaby. LeBron is told to shut up and play ball. But Patrick Mahomes and just the other day Deshaun Watson earned contracts that far exceed Dak's offered pay package so fans should you shut up and cheer him on (oh wait that's an oxymoron). I wonder how much of it has to do with the fact that fans usually complain when the player is a person of color, a black man making big time bucks?  I find it odd that no one, I mean NO ONE ever complains at the owner. The owner of most sports teams are white, worth billions of dollars and can afford to pay one man that amount WHY --- because they are bringing in way more that that in revenue. Many owners are business persons and investors like myself...just with a lot more commas in their bank account. My investment buddies are a who's who of owning sports teams:

Investor David Tepper (Carolina Panthers), 

Businessman Tilman Fertitti (Houston Rockets)

Investor Mark Lasry (Milwaukee Buckets)

Businessman and Investor Mark Cuban (Dallas Mavericks)

WHO PAY'S YOUR FAVORITY CELEBRITY'S BILL'S?

Lucky for you the good folks over at FIVETHIRTYEIGHT asked this question awhile back too. Aside from Shahid Khan (the Pakistani-born owner of the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguar football team) and Michael Jordan (who I believe recently sold a majority or all of his stake in the Charlotte Hornets),  ALL other owners across the 3 major sports leagues are white.

NFL Ownership: 97% White

MBL Ownership: 98% White

NBA Ownership: 98% White

Source: The Institute For Diversity And Ethics in Sport

FINDING VALUE - INVESTING IN YOURSELF (GROW YOUR BUSINESS AND PORTFOLIO)

I write this post because my startup cybersecurity firm just signed it's first client and hired and placed my first employee. I couldn't be more proud in trying to accomplish my mission to place talented people of color in corporate IT jobs. I was laughed at along the way, low balled, and even towards the end the companies almost tried to cut me out of my own deal. However; I am a risk manager and with contracts and an knowledge of what I'm worth and what my team is worth --- we won't settle and we didn't. I did it all without a company website because my skillset is the product. I set a target to get my first employee and engagement where I wasn't directly involved or managing the project and determined the profits would pay for my website and official launch. Know your worth, when they laugh work harder, and always be a triple threat player. I have a 9-5 job, manage a growing startup, and actively invest in the stock and real estate market. 3 Threat give me flexibility to shoot, pass, or drive to the basket. Here are my stocks expiring within 1 month, all profitable except one and the one trade that is down is actually good. I own that stock and when that trade is down, it means my stock is up. Know your Worth: ALIBABA (BABA), ROKU (ROKU), NOVAGOLD (NG) , FACEBOOK (FB), JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF (GDXJ), DRAFTKINGS (DKNG), KOHLS (KSS), CRONOS (CRON) - Note: Most of these trades w/ exception of Facebook, Cronos and GDXJ were recently added in the last few weeks and are profitable. 

 

2019 Year In Review - Mask On...Mask Off

Thank you Future - Mask On...Mask Off. Represent...I Gotta Represent

Mask Off - I am currently closing the books for 2019 and reflecting on a year of ups and downs.  Personally, I was rocked to my core this year as I lost my father. It was a deafening experience because he was an amazing father, husband, educator, community and spiritual leader. When it happened, many of us were stunned, discombobulated and grasping for balance.  

I use the word numb because I arguably experienced my best personal year I have ever had…and didn’t care.  I was very fortunate from a very early age my father taught me how to be strong, independent, and prepared to lead the family when that time came. So that is what I – what we all have tried to do, with him in mind.  Finally, this year marked my second daughter and 3 nephews being introduced to the world and my family and they are a big source of joy as we recover from our loss. 

Mask On - I get my strength from my family and push on to make a difference in this short life we are given.  I keep my eye on the prize and financial independence, being spiritually guided, and mentally woke is a powerful combination that NOBODY can touch.  So mask on and back to the lecture at hand: I ran the numbers and I turned in a pretty solid year. At roughly 23%, my personal portfolio that I manage did fairly well and IMO I didn't take on a ton of risk as I targeted value stocks.  Some are discarded gems, others I did detailed research and just saw a different story and narrative than many others.  I kind of like going against the grain...following the herd is NOT in my DNA ask Kendrick Lamar. .

Remember you all can do this. Need proof, the broader market turned in a similar performance and an event better performance was found in a technology based strategy like simply buying the NASDAQ index this year (to the tune of roughly 35% this year). I've got big goals this upcoming year and I will introduce them later but here are the remainder of the best picks I uncovered for 2019:

• Symantec / NortonLifeLock (SYMC)- Value Play; Part of the Business was bought out gave us a nice pop 
• Telsa (TLSA) - Value Play Doubled in 2019 
• Sprint (S) - Played options very well (now letting the profits ride on T-Mobile deal approval will be biggest gain if hits)
• Okta (Okta) - Cybersecurity trade that I sold too early but you live and learn
• Allergan (AGN) - A beaten down value play that finally payed off; This company make BOTOX and will be bought out by Abbvie
• Arconic (ARNC) - Pickup up some shares about the $19-21 range; value play that was dogged by litigation from a high-rise fire in London; Sold to early but it's all good
• Humana (HUM) - This stock ran up after a few big issues failed to damper healthcare stocks: 1) the Trump administration came down lightly on fines for not disclosing their negotiated rates ( a supposed game changer to bring down drug prices) and 2) Elizabeth Warren scaling back her Medicare for all plans
• Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - Pleasant Surprise; Stumbled on to an under performing value stock that is under pressure to change CEOs and deliver better results
• Cronos (CRON) - Surprised to see this one was so profitable; traded the Marijuana stock a few times. I have big hopes and so does the alcoholic beverage industry as they took a major stake in this company. One of the few companies I still hold a stake in
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) - Cybersecurity IPO stock that focuses on protecting your devices; They got absolutely crushed after a bag earnings and I was nimble and played this stock very well. I will be back in CrowdStrike this year
• JD. COM (JD) - My patience was rewarded; I calculated that America and China need each other. Trump removing the China tariffs caused this stock to take off from the mid 20s and now its in the mid 30s. This is a core holding for the future 

I want to wish you a very Happy New Years. Many blessings to you all and don't be afraid to dream but do it rationally, help others, take prudent risk, and take care of those who are good to you.

Here is my gift to you the rest of the best:

• VIX Index - I traded in and out of the VIXY; I'm waiting for volatility to return in 2020
• Zscaler - Plagued by earning's misses; I traded ZS in 2019 and expect to be more active in ZS and the Cyber stocks in 2020 as expectations and acquisitions are ripe for the picking
• Kohls - Between dividends and a small profitable trade, Kohls made my list but then turned into my achilles heel; I fell for their splashy venture with Amazon which was probably to cover for a bad earnings call to come. They got crushed and will need to bounce back  
• Century Link - No big notes here. They stabilized around the $10 range and it was a nice win
• Ceasar's - A good example winning and lose. I bet on Ceasars in 2018. Was happy when a deal was announced and thought I won big. No deal came and my trade blew up. I put the trade back on and benefited when El Dorado decided to buy Ceasars...so only a small gain comes from all this work.
• AVEO Pharmaceuticals - I had a small win but AVEO continues to have disappointing drug trials  
• RedHat - bought out by IBM wish I had a bigger position
• Novagold - Gold is back and being helped by Brexit and the recent attacks in the Mid East
• Anadarko - Bought out by Occidental Petroleum; I beat my buddy Buffet to this trade as he funded Occidental's purchase
• Facebook - Hard to fight the beast. They known everything and are selling it...ohh marketing it to anyone with cash
• Foot Locker - Hurt by the China issues, severely under-performed but Nike's resurgence may bode well for them in 2020
• Newell Brands - A value play that I think has bottomed. Let's see if we can trade this stock on the way up 

Clearly 2019's song of the year is HOT by Young Thug featuring Gunna and Travis Scott...

 my job is to keep it HOT in 2020...look out

2018 YEAR IN REVIEW – A YEAR OF GROWTH...A YEAR OF OPTIONS

2018 was quite an interesting year for stocks, the economy, and for me.  Before we close the book on this year, it’s also fitting to look back and reflect.  This is bit of my spiritual side speaking but for my financial folks it’s a moment to stop and balance your books. If you’ve read my previous posts, I talk about the importance of goal setting.  Now is the time to reflect on whether you hit those targets across ALL of your Pillars. Did you grow your spirit, mental fortitude, physical well-being, and finances? 

When I take a moment to reflect, I see some small strides I’ve made which I KNOW I will carry on into the New Year. My past year was the year of the FITBIT, where I became physically healthier (even playing basketball one a week) by challenging myself mentally to meet my daily health goals and give up unneeded foods, sugars, etc. I even gave up drinking (with the exception of a HS reunion event) and I was surprised I was up to that challenge (considering Little Jon wrote the Patron song specifically for me).  I concluded my financial challenge of renting, for the last 1.5 years, a house that did not meet most of our needs BUT it allowed us to SAVE and meet our new budget goals (2 paid off vehicles that are over 14 years old).  Again, an exercise in mental toughness for those who struggle with sacrificing today for a bigger picture.  Next, I personally want to thank my family for the changes they made this year to help us meet our family financial budget. This is turning into an effortless exercise (NOTE: IT DID NOT START THAT WAY) of developing a budget at the beginning of the year, then as a family we have to log all of our actual expenses. We use only one joint family account for family planning so there are NO SECRET EXPENSES that crop up (if we didn’t budget for it don’t bring it up and it’s not an item we are buying). In summary, we MET THE BUDGET FOR OUR HOME!!  Another goal met was buying our 2^nd Home! This was accomplished by those seeds we sowed a few years back…renting our first home, budgeting and sacrificing for our new home which took a few years to save up for the deposit needed.   

Many will overlook that these activities crisscross through a few of my Pillars; rarely does a challenge involve just one.  Taking on these goals has made me mentally stronger, a decent multi-tasker, better prioritizing and dealing with RISK.  I am equally proud of the last two items which have fueled my growth the most this past year.  # 1 – I took on the project of building out a consulting practice after companies continued to approach me for my skillset.  I still work in Corporate America but on my terms which has made me SIGNIFICANTLY less stressed (Pillar: Spiritual), in better health (Pillar: Physical), make more money (Pillar: Financial), and more technically skilled (Pillar: Mental/Education) then I have ever been.  #2 – I explored options for the first time in portfolio and it was a big reason for my investing success this year.  I have been studying it for months, used a fake portfolio of money to test trading strategies out, and implemented BASIC trades that have complimented my LONG-TERM VALUE oriented approach.  I repeat, I was afraid and had never traded an option contract in my life.  This year I’ve executed over 80+ option contract trades in a way that I believe lowers my investing risk, especially considering I’ve told people to be cautious because we are in the 10^th year of a stock market rally.  In summary, always stay balanced, clear minded, and focused. Help others yet use common sense and be prudent. The survivors in "The Walking Dead" did not survive from being lazy...you always have options and choices in life. Stay blessed.

For my reflection, and those of you that come here for the stocks my Financial YE Trading Review:

What Worked?

VALUE – By sticking with my value approach, I barely bought or sold ANY stocks in the last year. I sold 3 stocks this year that I held for more than 1 year because I felt the markets were reaching their tops.

Apple (AAPL) – I sold my entire position of Apple @ $200. Remember when we bought under $100. So long old friend until we meet again.

PBF Energy (PBF) – I sold energy which shot up earlier in the year. Now energy is back down to its lows. We’ll have to scrape the bottom of the barrel and see if its value time to pick shares back up.  PBF was in the low $20s and I sold $47. Funny at the time I thought I got out a little early.

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) – I owned this stock because I used to own XM Satellite radio, yes since 2005.  I watched the charts hit highs of $6.62 and decided to part ways after 13 years.  In a strange twist of irony, I recently purchased Pandora…who is being acquired by SIRI. We may be reunited again J

OPTIONS – My experiment in options was helpful this year.  When the market is up 10 years straight, the only thing that is certain is VOLATILITY.

            Volatility Index (VXX) – I traded the VXX over 5 times successfully for big gains. My only reflection was to bet bigger.

                Options – I traded over 80+ options contracts. I needed to test my strategy okay. We traded small amounts for high success. I might be above an 85%  success rate. Time to ramp up

DISRUPTION – I traded options contracts 3 sectors that were ripe for Mergers and had a handful of option contracts that did well when the stocks were acquired by other companies:

KLX Inc. (KLXI)

Dell Technologies Inc. (DVMT)

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) * I believe the deal is still pending, but my options were sold

Red Hat, Inc. (RHT)                                 

Time Warner Inc. (TWX)

What Kind of Worked?

Radisys Corporation (RSYS) – I held RSYS for years. Sold some during the good times and closely followed the quarterly earnings. They were in the process of turning the company around but had the RISK my small consulting practice has. They were reliant on 1 or 2 big vendors. The biggest being Verizon. When VZ abandoned their unlimited data strategy for a while it hurt RSYS earnings. I felt vindicated when the acquisition was announced and I believe Reliance Jio purchased this company early as 5G is now taking off a major strategy for all telecom companies. So I feel vindicated they were purchased and rebought before the acquisition. BUT I did take a loss on this position.

What did Not Work?

I have 3 simple lessons learned that all investors must heed:

1)       If the Government is MAD at another Country, GET OUT of those option contracts: I had two Chinese stocks that got beat up once the Trump Administration decided to impose tariffs on China:

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) – I had a profitable position, up huge. Trump Administration began their tariff stance and China retaliated by NOT APPROVING the Qualcomm merger of NXP. Qualcomm needed approval from 9 countries

JD.com, Inc. (JD) – Another contract that was positive, and you know the rest.

2)      Don’t trade options contracts into earnings season:

Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) – I got busy at work and should have exited this position before earning. Went from being up big, to a small loss. Lesson learned

3)      Don’t hold option contracts when the market begins declining:

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TEVA) – I was up by enough points that I was going to simply let the contract expire profitable. I don’t think you understand, Teva was at $23 or higher and I had a contract for $17. During the market downturn, I saw the unbelievable happen in a matter of 2 weeks. Again went from being up to taking a small loss.

Caesars Entertainment Corporation (CZR)