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Saturday, March 21, 2020

Q&A Session --- Questions About A Coronavirus Recession


Yo, why is Jadakiss as hard as it gets?
Why is the industry designed to keep the artist in debt?

Why you don't stack instead of trying to be fly?
Why is ratting at an all time high?

Lyrics from Jadakiss --- Why ft. Anthony Hamilton

Q&A with the Lyrics from Why
Let me help my guy Jada out really quick:

Jada Question: Why is the industry designed to keep the artist in debt?

Urbanomics Response: Well Jada the bigger question is why was your song written in 2009 but this question is still applicable even today. Ripped from the headlines: Taylor Swift, Mase, Megan thee Stallion --- all recently complained about contract dealings in the past year. You heard me hear say Jay Z and Master P gave you the blueprint -- independent. Funny you were referring to the music industry but ironically this seems to apply to most every industry I can think off. Let's take the NFL and NBA players who constantly are asking for a fairer share of the total profits as live sports is cable's last hope. We see players as spoiled, rich and entitled but do you find it interesting that someone pays their salary AND no one (main street, public, suburbs, politicians, etc.) ever calls the OWNERS spoiled, rich and entitled? How about the fact that college athletes in America can make universities AND coaches millions of dollars but the players don’t get paid…let alone their are no where near their fair share OR market value of the contribution they made to the profits of the college sports industry. I just saw that disgraced college basketball coach Rick Pitino, who once had a $55 Million dollar at the university of Louisville, is now allowed to coach again at Iona…even though he was the coach during the school’s biggest scandal which uncovered players getting perks and incentives (under the table) to come and play for the school. Did all the players on his team become millionaires during that run -- funny in the business world we have a fancy word called profit sharing. Maybe the NCAA didn't get that economic memo.

Jada Question: Why you don't stack instead of trying to be fly?

Urbanomics Response: Let me help those who are a little challenged by our smooth language --- to stack means to save money. Trying to be fly --- insert: spoiled, rich, and entitled.

 Jada we haven’t even talked about the “economic” industry --- is this designed to keep the aritist public in DEBT? The public continues to take on debt at an alarming rate AND from a young age: Student Loans, Credit Cards, Auto/Car Loans, Home Loans. If the system is working and fair, why is every article about students swimming in debt. Every piece of mail is another company asking me to take my already high credit card debt and “consolidate” it with more debt they are willing to offer me. Wait there’s more --- I can take debt out to purchase my brand new fancy car and of course my home which has more seats and rooms than people in it, respectively.  The US is one of the few developed to offer a 30 year mortgage. What a beautiful concept --- let’s give you debt for something you spend most of your adult life paying for. With interest IF you ever held your home until paid off you likely spent more 40+ years paying for that home. But similar to the whiny NFL players who we complain about --- who are the owners that allow people to take debt out like this?? I could rattle off every company but what’s the point --- the real question is why is main street not taught money, budgeting, debt, savings, retirement, wills, insurance, and how healthcare works?
  
Real Questions I Received this Week
Q: Do you like leverage and is now the time to lever up?

A: For those of you out there, leverage is borrowing debt (money you don’t own) and using it for purposes like investing in assets (home, stocks, etc.). I do not think now or ever is truly the time to borrow money.  Something I learned from Warren Buffet is during tough times, when tide comes in you’ll see who was swimming naked. What he is referring to is debt, and the tide is an economic or financial crisis. When it hits, swimming naked means you are OVER LEVERED --- you have too many debts that cannot be paid.  My motto since my dad required I get a job at 14 was that I would never take on true debt. I sacrificed for the greater good and went to a state school so the fees would be less and I earned scholarships to help with the cost. Was it enough – no I used debt (my credit card) to get me through the lean moments which were usually the last few months of each year. But only because I made a promise that every penny of my summer job would go to paying off that debt.  I treat debt like the Lannisters in the Game of Thrones --- don’t get into debt but when you do always plan to pay if off. While I pay my debts on time, it's because I want to have the privilege to access credit (mainly during bad times to benefit on fire sales). Public Service Announcement: If you are in too deep, see if your lendor/creditor will work with you to forgive some of the debt...do not be ashamed many people do this and many corporations go through bankruptcy all the time (it's easier for businesses).

A: Now is not the time to borrow more debt because the markets are too turbulent and more downside is to come. I do think you should have Money/Capital/Savings set aside to take advantage of the upside when we do get through this crisis. But those funds should rarely ever be someone else’s money --- then you forgot one our cardinal rules --- never take on debt or you may be the one they find swimming naked. What someone giveth, they will taketh and they usually come knocking only when times are bad. Don’t confuse leverage or debt with equity.  For example, I plan to invest during the downturn but I would rather put my rainy day savings to use OR my equity in my home.  If I lose my own money, I have no one to blame but myself. Losing someone else’s money may mean a lot of sleepless nights. I am evaluating using my home’s equity but this does involve risk. If you look back to my posts in 2009-2010, I was one of the few who had savings and no debt during the depths of the crisis.  Unfortunately, there were many home foreclosures and asset repossessions going on. I bought my home on a fire sale from a local bank that similar to many people fell in love with giving people too much debt or the wrong people debt. Revisit that process here (note my house is one of those in the pictures): https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2010/04/homebuying-101-tour-baby-tour.html

My equity in my home means I have gains since I first made my purchase and I can borrow against that --- but the risk IS your home is the collateral. So to reduce your risk, I advise if you try this approach DO NOT take the full amount of equity in your home. If we are headed for a downturn and your home value decreases that $100K in gains may be more like $50K.

Q: Why is oil going down so much?

A: Haha be happy and take advantage of cheap prices. Prices are so low, someone commented to me I don’t remember the last time prices were below $2. The reason prices went down are primarily because of Saudi Arabia, no conspiracy theory here just market forces at work.  And this IS NOT linked to the coronavirus.  The Saudis increased oil output after they could not reach an agreement with Russia to limit oil production. In economics if you have too much product that you cannot sell --- prices WILL come down and they fell to the floor. The virus has made this worse because if people are being quarantined or staying at home the demand for the oil is now dropping.  Urb Lesson 101 – if supply goes up or demand comes down --- the value of a product usually drops. We have both.  I’ve provided a source here as well:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/business/saudi-arabia-oil-prices.html

Q: Can you believe it, 3 states have just now issued the shelter-in place strategy that you shared weeks ago were needed?

A: Yeah and many more states have closed schools and are allowing people to work from home. I think this is a well needed step in the plan to starve the virus. People are its host and you need to reduce people being in close contact for extended periods of time to starve the virus. The concern I still have as testing is finally ramping up, what is the damage by not doing this sooner and because it is NOT a true national strategy and states are electing to shutdown individually we all may not resume being productive as soon as we’ve seen in other places.  I think many people are using grocery store pickup and delivery, drive thru’s, Uber Eats, and I’ve seen stocks around meal delivery services popping but I’m not as big on this service for the masses. 

Q: So when I start to process everything I am seeing and hearing is this all a House of Cards?

A: To start, I have never seen the show so I don’t fully know the premise. But I truly understand the disbelief people have in how this has been handled. I think there has been poor leadership and people are panicking, hence the toilet paper craze. I think there are two things at play working separately: 1) Poor leadership results in no trust of the data/information coming from the top. It’s displayed when Trump would rather yell at the reporters than calmly answer the questions we are ALL hoping to hear the plan or solutions too. It’s clear when I get FEMA texts minutes apart from many people that everyone is on high alert and susceptible to hoaxes. That does not happen unless if you don’t TRUST the daily briefing you’re receiving from your CEO or leader. 2) If a virus can bring world to its knees because the fact is revealed that most of us do not have enough saving to cover two weeks of shelter-in place that is a scary proposition.  The new questions that will come are: a) When a family is so far in debt you go into bankruptcy….what does a country do to get out of a mountain of debt? b) If a lot of that debt is used on our medical system why is it being called fragile --- and we only have 400K medical beds nationally?  c) Will every virus, major climate change, and/or recession cause panic and markets to crash like this? d) Who get's a bailout --- it seems this time like everyone needs one? 

I pray we are all patient to get through this together and help each outer out. Because it will be a long drawn out process that is leading to an economic recession.  Next week, news is already coming out that the unemployment numbers will skyrocket to somewhere between 2.5 to 3 Million people. Stay tuned in and stay positive. We'll provide more on how we hold it down during a recession


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