2014 - Themes Shaping My Investments (pt 1)

I want to capture the themes that I believe are shaping the world in 2014 and for the foreseeable future.  Game changing events shape people first, then entrepreneurs react, and finally investment dollars follow.  This is important for many people to remember in my opinion when looking back and asking why is the world changing right before my eyes and how can I participate. I've heard the phrase when life gives you lemonade...and changed it to when you and the world are buying or using a quality product think about investing in it.  I have a good friend that constantly talks to me about Whatsapp and if anyone close to me knows Apps are not my thing but I find out they were bragging about what would be a 19 Billion Dollar company I was just being introduced to.

Theme 1: E-Commerce

I write about this theme often and the verdict is in, many people prefer the comfort of buying things online. I know I do and a number of entrepreneurs have responded to become mega online retailers for everything imaginable.  Continue to think about the ways our buying patterns change on the Internet and take advantage of the companies that will capitalize on it first OR do it better. This will be a combination of new and old companies changing the way we shop. Remember last year, there was a reason why so many packages were delayed during the Christmas holiday by UPS and that theme is the comfort of buying things online.

- Amazon, Ebay (Paypal), Yahoo, Google, Walmart, Home Depot, UPS, Fedex

Theme 2: Mobile /APPS

The mobile wars are heating up. Finally, most of the world is warming up to a concept I've been using for quite a while: "No Debt/No Contract".  The mobile companies have used contracts to their advantage for quite some time and this has led many people to enter into never ending contracts that change usually on the companies terms. My philosophy is don't sign it until to read it. If you don't like what you read...call the company and see if you can change the terms...or don't sign it. I buy my phones myself and never enter into a contract. Many people have not paid attention to the fine print so AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint have dominated the US market. The public is tired of this model and now enters T-Mobile and their "no contract" and "cheaper packages".  And now the big companies like AT&T must follow suit with lower prices or lose customers.

Then enter the world of Apps...I can't explain the love affair for all things FLAPPY but Apps are the favorite hobby of the world.  I personally don't use very many apps but I can't deny their staying power. 

- Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, Apple, Samsung, HTC, Nokia, Blackberry, Facebook, Whatsapp, Snapchat, Zynga, Candy Crush

...the remaining themes are to be continued

Is Your Portfolio Up...

Dow Above 13,000 / NASDAQ 3,000
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index that is made of 30 stocks which are a general representation of US economy.  The index consists of companies like McDonalds, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble.  The Dow being above 13K is significant because some consumers like you and me are feeling a little bit better as we watch our collective investment wallets head in the right direction.  If you are invested in the markets through a personal account, 401K, IRA or some other investment vehicle chances are they are all doing better.  To put this in perspective the last time the Dow was at this level was in May 2008.  Or this may help, when things were really bad a few years ago the Dow was at 6,547 on March 9, 2009.  That was four years ago the stock market was where it is today, so we've come along way.  I almost forgot the NASDAQ, which is an index tracking primarily technology stocks.  The NASDAQ briefly hit 3,000 a level it hadn't seen in about 12 years!!

URB Investment Tips: My take away is that this is proof as why you usually want to stay invested in the markets and to not be scared away by the big swings.  I also want to mention that this is a good time to cash in a few of your BIG winners.  In short, I've been impressed by the momentum of jobs and have enjoyed this ride up in the stock market. I will be watching closely because I think we've come along way and worked hard to get here and I think the market may take a deep breathe and pull back (i.e., decline in price) a few months from now.

Here are a few themes from my latest quarterly stock picks:

~ Beaten down stocks
~ Pharmaceutical stocks
~ Gold Miners stocks

Stay tuned, they'll be released shortly.

Superbowl Investing Tip ~ Invest in What You Know

This simple tip comes from the mastermind, Peter Lynch. I am completely engrossed in this strategy but rarely put it into existence and it has cost me dearly. It is so simple sometimes that we overlook the power of our own consumption and what it means. Here are some solid stocks where I have used their service and in some instances I keep returning. And if I would have bought the stock I would a very happy man.

Dominos (NYSE: DPZ) - Lets take this pizza chain. I decided to buy pizza and because I consider myself tech savvy I wanted to place the order over the internet. So I decided to use Dominos new site and technology to place and monitor my order. For someone like me, this was great to create my own pizza with toppings, see the price as I made it, and know how long it would take to expect a delivery or to go in and pick up my pizza. I did this over 2 or three months ago and had such a positive experience that I would definitely buy my pizza that way again. To read about Dominos new site and technology check out these articles from the Wall Street Journal and the website 'Storefrontbacktalk' for more information:


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704779704574552080042033284.html

http://www.storefrontbacktalk.com/e-commerce/dominos-gets-e-commerce-creative/

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) - To be honest I love the fact that I know when I shop on their website that I am getting quality products at the best prices out there. My holiday shopping is quick and easy and the one thing I know is a money maker is shipping and handling, because we all have impulses and will pay more to have our goods quicker.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) The last company I will right about is Walmart. I go out of my way to shop and buy products online at this store because they truly care about service and offer me the lowest prices out there. In this economy I don't want to have to think about who is giving me the best deal...I know already WMT will deliver. And I truly believe their website and site to store capability will continue to allow shopper convenience like it did for me when I found my Playstation3 bundle package there at a price that could not be matched.

Been Busy...

Some would say being right on the money. Well lets look back at over four months ago, when we told you to re-allocate your portfolios because the worst ain't here yet. And what have we seen is that are call is right on. The Dow has continued to plummet to the level I thought we wouldn't hit for awhile. and that is roughly around Dow 8000. This is a compelling moment because months ago I said that I would recommend that we all start inching back into the market, but at this point the news continues to be bad. Just searching articles on the internet you may come across these themes: Banks Need the rest of the TARP Bailout - Citigroup is selling their brokerage unit! - Bank of America is showing signs of cracking Retailers are not looking good. - Even Walmart sales are declining - Circuit City can't find a buyer and is liquidating all their stores!! Unemployment rates continue to rise - GE Capital is set to shed 11000 jobs Downgrades send stocks to their 52week/all-time/all world lows There is no strategy when the headlines read like this. The only thing is to stay the course with the consistent message that we've had before. I repeat I am and have recommended that you are completely out of the stock market and fully allocated to Treasurys and cash assets. This is especially true for your 401K portfolio because it primary purpose is capital preservation...not appreciation. A portion of your portfolio needs to be exposed to the market and I recommend that you have your own trading account where you can DO IT YOURSELF (DIY)...I don't need Bernie Madoff or any other scandalous investors out there losing my money...when I can do that on my own. It this portfolio you should be shorting more that buying things. Find attractive price points (see previous posts on price points) for both buys and shorts:

SHORTS:
- SSG: ETF that shorts the Semiconductor Sector
- KBE: EFT that shorts the Retail Banking Sector
- Also short the retail, and credit sensitive sectors
BUYS: - BBY: Best Buy is primed for increased earnings now that Circuit City is going BANKRUPT
- V: VISA is down towards their Initial Public Offering (IPO) again after being downgraded

I'll be back to update this post later

I Am Investor

Now I am no Will Smith in I Am Legend, but by being one of the few non-believers of the rapid rise of the real estate market I often felt like I stood alone. This was often documented here at Urbanomics and my lone bad investment that reminded me to always stick to my judgement was in New Century Financial. So is being Legend easy, actually yes just pick up the Wall Street Journal. Yesterday's paper confirmed my recent post about INFLATION, which continues its rise and has reached its highest level in 27 years.

Next, we discussed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and their sharp decline. Freddie recently auctioned more of its debt as rumors continue to swirl about a possible government bailout. If the government steps in to bail out shares at very low prices current investors could basically be left with nothing.

Oil & Gas has rebounded today and saw gains of roughly 5%. This is largely due to the disruptions between Russia and Georgia. Our position in natural gas pipelines should fare well during these times.

The last point I will discuss is one that I believe will continue to play out in the retail sector. I believe that a number of the retailers benefitted from the economic stimulus plan and many had really good quarters. I have already highlighted retailer, Big Lots, who I think like Wal-Mart benefitted from this factor. Notice that Wal-Mart noted that they see future weakness and Target also see declines. I will closely watch the retailers and look to short players like Big Lots when they rebound and closely reach their 52 week high.

Black Friday Shopping

Isn't it funny that someone somewhere marketed the day after Thanksgiving as Black Friday. It has become the day where no one gets any sleep and we all get up and spend money selfishly. Kinda the opposite thinking for the day day before...THANKSGIVING! How many people are out there buying things to give them away to the less fortunate. Not many is what I'm guessing, but hey what do I know. But come to think of it a new GPS navigation system has been on my list for awhile and its funny that I am bullish of this industry as I think this will continue to be the trend.

I guess I am feeling like a little bit of a scrooge today because with a little bit of a rebound today in the market (its up roughly 1%) that my portfolio isn't moving in line with the market today. I even have Best Buy in my portfolio so what gives. So on a day like this when I should be shopping, I will give you my random thoughts of stock recommendations and things I've heard as I've kept my ears to the street:

E-trade (ETFC) - The rumors are this stock may be up for SALE, what the #$%$#. How is this possible, those pesky mortgages are likely the reason. Its up roughly 20% today on news that it could sell itself to TD AMERITRADE (AMTD) OR CHARLES SCHWAB (SCHW)

The retailers are making a move today, Target (T), Walmart (WMT), Kohls (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Circuit City (C), and others are moving higher.

Urbanomics Recommendation of the Day:

I have had this one on my BUY list but I can't remember if I have ever formally recommended it here. The stock is Electro Scientific Industries (ESIO) Buy Price @ $19.47