When to Buy Stocks -- Demand Value | Don't Follow the Crowd

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments) HOW TO SEARCH MY BLOG:	Get Updates to Your Email When I Create A New Post:

Coming soon is a post on Health -- The Body. You have to invest and know the data about your body. Like many people of color, I get nervous about hospitals and doctors. Thanks to my corporate job, I was exposed to annual exams and blood tests. Unfortunately, when I made the shift to being an entrepreneur I didn't keep up with my annual exams. And it may be costing me...stay tuned for a future post on Health and how that impacts your Wealth. 

Also Coming Soon - a series on #HowtoInvest. People have been reaching especially after the spikes in Gamestop, AMC, and other stock to learn the basics. I self taught myself how to invest beginning at the age of roughly 18 and have never stopped. To be a good investor and ensure you are not gambling (speculating), I'll cover (hardest parts of investing in RED):

Budgeting 101 - How to Fund Ur Investments?

Why Stocks as an Investment?

What is Ur Investment Profile + Personality?

How to Pick Stocks?

When to Buy Stocks?

How to Enter My Trade?

How Many Stocks Should I Own?

When to Sell Stocks?

Am I Speculating (Gambling)?

When to Buy A Stock

Enough talking -- pictures and videos are worth a thousand words, so I plan to move into the digital age here soon. I'm an old soul in a millennial body with a 9-5 job and a side hustle empowering underrepresented groups to find employment in the technology field (and it's cash flowing almost better than my 9-5 job!). Oh by the way, I own real estate (with tenants) and trying to grow that portfolio. So be patient as I plan to do a video series that will help you invest in yourself and #getthebag. My best asset class is my stock portfolio and yes, it allowed me to semi-retire at 37. I've documented how I've done it here on my blog (mistakes and all) for the last 15+ years. Don't believe people that say it's easy --- Trust But Verify. If they are NOT teaching you how to do it yourself --- Then You Are The Product. #facts

Leading up to my video series, which you've been asking for, here is an example of how I hunt for stocks. Sometimes I rely on my network of friends in my #MansaMusa network. They've helped me build my mini empire and I appreciate all of them as they've support me in different ways. When I got started I had a few #whentobuy rules. Last week, I shared Rule #2 - Follow Da Leader | Whale Watch | Griot Rule. Warren Buffett was great to read about, learn from, and occasionally follow but he is one smart brotha...he often requests and usually get approved the right to withhold some of his biggest trades. Why? So he can slowly build a large position and limit Griot watchers like me from following him. There are federal rules which require Warren to disclose his trades and he doesn't want his stock investments to skyrocket right away (from copycats) before he's built his large stake. I may not be a Griot yet, but like my father I'm a like to preach and teach. So I can't give everything away...I know my worth but I USUALLY try to make investments that align with my goals, risk tolerance, and personality. Two hints at what I mean and then I get to a few stocks on my subscriber list and one reveal.

Wanting Value:

  Hint 1: For years, I've written about the fact that I won't by a candy bar if I can't get it for 50c. For the longest time, that's what a Reese's or Snickers cost growing up. Yes, I believe in inflation but if you don't sell it to me for 50c or a Kings size bar for $1.00...you're not getting my money. Life is full of transactions and negotiations...I choose when I want to participate. 

A Difference of Opinion:

Hint 2: I personally like to go against the grain and as many have said...I like to walk my own path and don't follow the crowd too often. So if I see a stock getting dissed (Ex: Search for my Tesla or Lululemon trades and read my Elon Musk / Kanye West posts from years before), I tend to want to know more about the situation than just go with the crowd. Group think is very dangerous and is a primary reason why racism and oppression is what it is. Human nature is to seek the protection and worthiness from a group or gang...but it can lead to perverse outcomes - like when gangs have no rules and kids get killed, or when people with authority protect the bad apples in their group, or when people claim to have faith in something higher but the angry mob can lynch (skin color) or rape (young woman) because society or the current cultural climate doesn't communicate to them what they are doing is wrong. And then I hear the narrative, don't try and cancel those things people did back because it was a different time. I have one one --- Do Unto Others as You Would Have Them Do Unto You. I don't think in life you can ever "overlook" lynching, hate, rape, bullying ...because everyone was doing it. So When I invest...if most are doing it...I run the other way. Need one last example, we all celebrate Dr. Martin Luther King Jr and his approach to non-violence today. But in the 1960s, the FBI had him high on the list of public enemy #1s. How do you square that away...in my book non-violence teaching does not = terrorist (or communist for that matter) but they spent years watching and taping his every moves. So I take the same approach to stocks, if everyone jumps off the bandwagon I BUY:

- Elon Musk is an idiot for $420 tweet -- nice try, I invest in a genius and Tesla

- Kanye West is mentally crazy -- He's not the president, my mentor, impactful to my daily life...but IMO he seems to be savvy at music and business...oh by the way he's now worth over 5-6 Billion after a well executed clothing partnership with Gap. I don't have to agree with him to know he's going to appreciate in value: 

URBANOMICS: TESLA - MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED INVESTMENT

- Lulemon is finished after the then idiot CEO made harsh comments about plus-sized women and leggings -- He's a bum get rid of him and people still will buy ridiculously price leggings, yoga pants and clearly Yeezy's. 

URBANOMICS: Value Investing - Look4Leaders / FollowUrGut

#GettheBag - Premium Subscriber Alerts

Here are a few stocks from this Quarter's Subscriber List Premium Alerts:

• I***** - Beaten down technology company, that may get back up after being knocked back down
• M**** - With everyone jumping on the hot new thing...the old reliable has been thrown away. It may to soon to ask an old star to retire when the team isn't ready for a transition
• A**** - This company stumbled and decided not to IPO. But the SPAC route seemed like an ideal fit. No one's paying attention but the re-opening trade could have us running around like Mad Men
• F**** - Good ole fashion insurance was left out in the cold, but whoa interest rates are rising and everyone is jumping on banks, insurance and other interest rate sensitive stocks. 

Reveal - ViacomCBS (VIAC)

• V**** - Television and Advertising has been left for dead as streaming is the future. A quote taken from Barron's: "An analyst wrote that the recent run-up “doesn’t fully discount risks” from pressure on V****’s own legacy cable-network business, nor the risks to content-licensing revenue from the crumbling of conventional cable channels."

Haters gonna hate. Our Reveal is we own ViacomCBS (VIAC), recently the best performing stock in the S&P 500. Stay tuned for a "Details" writeup...but wondering when did I blog about ViacomCBS, Sept 2020:

URBANOMICS: How Being Risk Focused Allows Me to Play Defense + Offense

If you want to follow the crowd, by all means go ahead. However, I'd rather walk my own path. Reach out if you want to subscribe and monitor the trades I'm making in my portfolio. 

Also, guess the stock and I'll reveal if you're right.

What You Need in Life -- Invest Like a "Middle Child"

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
Diversify your Life (Mind, Body, Soul, + Investments)	Search My Blog

The Pillars - The Miseducation

In my culture, lessons are taught by the elders to the community and especially to the young children. Ironically, one thing has not changed over time which is song is a form of communication used to narrate stories.  This is still on display today with the power of music artists sharing stories through song  If you have read my blog you know that I like a flashback and reference songs that were defining for a generation.  When I thought of this post, a song came to mind popped in my head that defines success.  Success for many could be summed up through the hit track "Money, Power, Respect".  Many will believe this song was a track by Lil Kim.  Simply, before there was a Nicki Minaj or Cardi B there was Lil Kim eviscerating hooks like she did for the L.O.X on this track.  No disrespect to The L.O.X or Lil Kim, but my generation and generations before that bought into the wrong message:

See I believe in money, power, and respect. 

First You get the money. 

Then you get the power. 

After you get the power, MF will respect you

Song: Money, Power, Respect; Artist(s): The L.O.X ft. Lil Kim,

While Lil Kim described one way to obtain respect, she forgot to tell you that this way is not sustainable for everyone.  So I challenge, what you need in life --- are the pillars.  We need to strengthen our mental fortitude through education.  Those are skills that can never be taken away from you.  We need to use our skills to invest in our own assets.  By being independent, no one can dictate the terms to how you live, especially if you live within your means.  I'm proud when I see people discussing the pillars in our community here a few recent examples:

I believe J. Cole's has unplugged from the Matrix and understands the Pillars. He's on the same mission, Check out his lyrics from the track "Middle Child":

What good is the bread if my brothas is broke?

What good is first class if my brothas can't sit?

That's my next mission

That's why I can't quit

Just like LeBron

Get my brothas more chips

I think Kanye read my post on Master P. Go back and read how I wrote that over 20 years ago he inspired me to be independent, black owned, and bout it bout! People are finally understanding the stakes. Yes, Kanye you are the talent, why don't you own your own masters sir. Don't be afraid brotha because as a producer, artist, businessman, and family man you owe it to yourself, family and community to negotiate your own terms as long as you know your worth. Thank you for seeking out Master P and as I've told many people, you will grind for years but you must flip the switch to negotiating own your own terms when the time is right. I look at all my business deals closer, eliminate the middle men, and because it's my business I can choose to keep the money in my community and invest in people who share my values.

For years I've been talking about living within your means and prioritizing ownership and investing in assets that appreciate.  I was pleased to see the rapper Plies make this comment:

Finally, I'm hopeful people are listening.  I read a great story and about a business man, named Young Bleu.  He talked about his goals of being an independent music artist and how he already owns a few assets: a house and a restaurant.  And the thing I love the most about his article was an example that he gave: Young Bleu Interview courtesy of HipHopDx:

"I’m going to put it like this. Just say as a rapper, you got $400,000 in your account. You don’t got a house, right? Now just say that your label say, “F&ck you.” You know what I’m saying? “F&ck you. We don’t want to do nothing with your shit right now. We don’t feel like we want to do shit with you right now.” All right. You got $400,000 right? Okay. A nigga come up to you and say, “Man, shit. I can get your record going. Shit, we can go and do radio 150,000, 200,000.” Okay, there’s always a chance that this shit might not go as planned. So now you only got $400,000 but nowhere to go besides what someone says they can do for you.

Now if you already had a house, you already had cars paid for, why would you spend the $400,000? You know what I’m saying? If all else fails, you have a home to go back to. But if you don’t you’ll be scared to spend that money if you felt like, “Damn. Shit. If I blow this shit, it’s over and I’m back at the bottom. Shit, I’ll probably be back staying with my mama. Goddamn.” You feel me? If you got your shit in order, you will be more comfortable spending money, you know what I’m saying?"

Sound familiar?? All I can say is well said young brotha. This young man understands the game.  If you dissect his statement, he says: "what is the point of having so much capital (or cash) in your account and you own nothing.  If you own a house and have assets to fall back on (especially if this house was paid off), then when someone approaches you about doing business you are more likely to take prudent risks and make more investments knowing that you have something to fall back on.  As he eloquently stated, if you don't own that house (or some asset that appreciates) you will be scared to spend that money. I have a 9-5 job and a side hustle for income; my assets range from: 2 homes, have a individual retirement account that I could live off of and I use my brokerage account as war chest and make numerous investments every day...I'm not scared because I approve every investment. I can't wait to invest with J Cole, Master P, Young Bleu, Kanye if they share my value (b/c I don't always see eye to eye with some folks). But if we can agree people of color need their contracts rewritten, need independence, and they need investment...then let's do business.

#pillars, #independent, #Master P, #Young Bleu, #MiddleChildInvesting, #J Cole #educationispower

A House of Cards --- Pt. 3 (Debt - The Gift & The Curse)

This has probably been my toughest post to write.  I've been hinting at what is to come through posts like Deja Vu. I believe the economic impact to come will be very rough on all of us and it is the primary reason I headed to the sidelines (moved most of my individual retirement accounts to cash) over a month ago. It's the reason why I have been holding so much in savings and declining to take on any real estate and other deals for the last few years.  It was also the reason why in my Investment Account I stop investing in roughly Q1 of 2017 and began trading options --- short term bets I wanted to win quickly and then get out off. I did well but I still have some bets on the books that have been pummeled and probably overexposed myself to retail and consumer discretionary stocks.  I have invoked my sandlot strategy (taking my ball and leaving the playground) and this has only happened one other time in my Gen X/Millennial lifetime (I'm on the border --- take your pick). You'll see the other time was during the financial crisis. Instead of me speaking on what is to come, I've decided to rip from the headlines snippets of what the everyday people feel and believe are their biggest risks to come. Almost all involve too much debt and that's why I rally around a lyric in an old Kanye verse from the Beyonce Ego (remix): "What you want dog, Tryna stay recession free".  Yes sir, to stay recession free is to stay debt free. See the risks of limited savings, too much debt (over-leverage), and not having enough capital to make investments when others are swimming naked. 

----------------DEBT - THE CURSE--------------------------------------------------------------------

The Human Toll --- No Free Lunch

(The Washington Post) -- In interviews with more than a dozen laid off workers and small business owners, nearly all said their biggest economic concern was paying the rent or mortgage in April. Many people across the country have monthly payments that exceed $1,000. The median monthly rent in the nation is just over $1,600, according to Zillow, an online real estate database company. The median mortgage payment is $1,400. Millions of Americans don’t know how they will get the money in time to make rent. The nation has 40 million renters, who tend to be younger. Black and Hispanic families are twice as likely to rent as white households, according to the Pew Research Center. (Bloomberg) -- “If the government tells me you’re good enough to get a loan, I have to trust and believe in the government,” Castillo said. “Then we just hope and pray that the client doesn’t get foreclosed on.” Matt Badders, a San Antonio lawyer who represents lenders, auctioned off two houses. The failed mortgages remind him of the run-up to the financial crisis 12 years ago, when lending to customers with spotty credit nearly brought down the world’s financial system. “We’re almost back to 2007, when mortgage originators are waking people up on park benches, saying sign here,” Badders said. After the last financial crisis, the fund required a $1.7 billion taxpayer bailout, its first in 80 years. The government has since tightened lending standards and built up the insurance fund. Because of rising home prices, borrowers who bought years ago now have considerable home equity, which could provide some cushion as well. But recent loans are the most likely to fail. In San Antonio, Erika Wilson, a 32-year-old home health aide who was separated from her husband, bought her dream house in June 2018. It had an eat-in kitchen and more than enough room for her two young daughters. Along with her other debt, the $1,900-a-month mortgage payments ate up more than half her family’s income. On Q Financial, an Arizona-based lender, foreclosed on her loan.  She’s still living there because the federal government has suspended eviction proceedings in its lending programs during the pandemic. “I messed it up,” Wilson said.  “I didn’t know what I was doing. It made me feel like I wasn’t adult enough to own a home.”  (The Atlantic) -- According to Zandi, at least three big waves will hit American economy activity. The first is occurring now, as businesses close and the economy grinds to a halt.  Next will be the job losses. “The third wave will hit when people realize they are worth so much less, particularly the Boomers, who are focused on their retirement,” Zandi told me. “When they realize their nest egg has evaporated, they'll go into panic mode and cut back on spending, and that further exacerbates the problem.”  The Small-Business Impact of an Over Levered System (Barron’s) -- The Federal Housing Finance Agency on Monday said that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would offer mortgage forbearance to some multifamily property owners—on the condition that they suspend evictions on the basis of nonpayment of rent. According to the plans Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae announced Tuesday morning, landlords whose multifamily properties are financed through the enterprises may be eligible to defer loan payments for up to three months. Landlords who want to take advantage must show hardship as a consequence of the virus and gain lender approval, according to the companies’ press releases. (Bloomberg) -- Real estate investor Tom Barrack said the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a “domino effect” of catastrophic economic consequences if banks and government don’t take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting. Barrack, chairman and chief executive officer of Colony Capital Inc., warned in a white paper and in a subsequent interview on Bloomberg Television of a chain reaction of margin calls, mass foreclosures, evictions and, potentially, bank failures due to the coronavirus pandemic and consequent shutdown of much of the U.S. economy. “To keep people employed, you have to support the employers,” he said Monday in the interview. “The biggest part of employer expense is rent. When commerce stops and they can’t pay rent and they can’t pay interest on the debt, and then the banks and the intermediaries can’t pay their investors, it all collapses.”  Urb Lesson of the Day:  Financial Account Diversification ·         Savings Accounts – Gets you through the rough patches in life ·         Investment Accounts – Allows you to take risks when others are NOT – like today ·       Individual Retirement Accounts – This is truly for your future, why NOT wait for a sign that the recovery is strong

TESLA - MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED INVESTMENT

TESLA #2 IN 2019

Kanye West's "My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy" was named the album of the decade. And being a hip hop head I struggled with this designation until I recently revisited the album. Why did I hesitate to recognize the greatness of this album?  Well considering Mainstream Media gave this designation without consulting me...I did consider the source at some point they missed the target (Kendrick Lamar gets a strong nod for the crown). I think it is because of how polarizing Kanye West has become. It's hard to discuss him without someone having a strong opinion so I've drifted away from his music.  

How does this tie into my blog, investments, and my 2nd best performing stock of 2019 (Note: Symantec's last minute run pushed Tesla out of the #1 spot). Simple, Elon Musk and Tesla remind me of Kanye West.  Elon is one of the most polarizing people on the planet and his technology for a gas guzzling American culture is NOT far behind. I drive a plug-hybrid SUV (600+ miles per fill up) and I think my Midwestern state is purposefully taxing me extra for putting a fuel efficient car on the road through an electric vehicle tax I paid to register the car. Like Kanye, if you get caught up in Elon's antics you forget the greatness of his mind.

This year in March, I witnessed a polarizing discussion around Elon Musk tweeting about Tesla. I had not followed the stock much because it usually trades in a nose-bleed range of $300 to $400 dollars for one share of stock.  The SEC and Musk were going back and forth in the news about how his tweets could impact the stock and Musk was not shy is his feelings about the SEC.  

March 19 2019 - I believe the SEC held Elon in contempt for not having the company pre-approve tweets that could materially move the stock. I know it sounds childish, like Kanye taking the mic from Taylor swift, but this was somewhat serious and putting pressure on the stock. I decided to stake a claim on the side of genius because at the end of the day the electrification of cars is pure genius and actually is a business that can make help improve our planet.

April 2019 - Around the end of April, I have 25th in my notes Tesla was having an annual shareholder's meeting. I had my if it wasn't broke don't fix it moment and invested again. Elon discussed that the issue plaguing Tesla isn't a demand issue (the Media and Analysts were saying demand was waning for Tesla's). In fact, he said noted that orders and sales for the Model S, X, and 3 were ahead of production...which likely means there is a backlog developing (good for business) and an opportunity for them to produce and deliver a new record amount of cars. Kind of like how people keep by Yeezy's I guess.

July 2019 - Around the 11th, Tesla had to report earnings again  I dipped my toe into Tesla waters again as the picture being painted was they were figuring it out. Elon was sleeping on the production floor this year, burnt out but hell bent on figuring out how to produce more cars each week. I remember when they could barely produce 5,000 cars in a week. Earnings was a mixed picture which was in-line with my thesis: I just don't need Tesla to crater.

October 2019 - Yes, I traded Tesla yet again. They have stayed focus and were rewarded with an earnings record. They jumped by the largest amount in 6 years on increased production and better margins. What had analysts been knocking them on...margins. Like Kanye, I don't always agree with many of the things he does but one can argue the music and his drive for fashion is genius.  Tesla I believe is a game-changer as an investment, its good for our planet, and the pressure it's putting on the auto industry. There are a few people not afraid to compliment the strangeness of this company like my buddy Ron Baron and a lady that I occasionally hear on CNBC. When I remember her name I will add it here.  With the #2 spot, thanks Elon, the SEC, and the pioneers who plop down a deposit on one of the models. 

Let's Have a Toast to the...

Hope you enjoy My Beautiful Dark Twisted Investing Mind!

 

Welcome to the Good Life

I go for mine, I got to shine...Now throw you hands up in the sky! This is the third track off of Kanye West's "Graduation" album featuring T. Pain. Now this is the jam, but I am not sure what life Kanye was referring too. It's interesting I find myself not writing as much whenever there is a lot of turmoil in the market. This usually also reflects turmoil in the world, which then reflects itself through the market. Let's see, we have major financial companies, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, and Wachovia Bank all getting hammered by the weakness in the credit markets and the mainly through the bad investments that were made. Add to that the mortgage crisis in the US which has led to homeowners everywhere defaulting on their homes. All the companies in these areas, which were once living the "Good Life" are singing the blues and laying people off. Then there is that pesky thing called energy...it currently sits at levels that are unthinkable. Oil is reaching levels of roughly 90 dollars a barrel and predicted to continue to rise. Now maybe I am too young to really know what I'm talking about but there has been the "R" word thrown out by some analysts and that would be RECESSION and from what I am seeing in the markets I don't think that some of the whispers are too far off.

I am no mathematician but poor financial markets + bad consumer debt + rising foreclosures + declining property values + layoffs = something is wrong (possibly RECESSION). I am not comfortable with the volatility in the market because as companies are beating earnings or being upgraded they go up and then immediately the market brings them right back down due to all the negative news. Now Warren Buffet wouldn't care because he's in it for the long haul (and he's rich), so for the rest of us that were out there speculating its time to take gains were it makes sense and build on our recession proof stocks...like dividend stocks. I like buying stocks that make products that we continue to buy even when times get tough and I still like technology. You'll appreciate the following updates:

Advent Software (ADVS) - reported positive earnings today; (technology)
Radisys (RSYS) - upgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald, price target raised from 11 to 18 (technology)
Emcore - coverage initated with BUY by Roth Capital (technology)
Burlington Northern (BNI) - reported positive earning (transportation)

They have a few things in common being technology plays and one defensive plays. I think this will be the direction to go for awhile.