Are Systems Inherently Fragile or are they Broken - CrowdStrike | Economies | Politics | Health

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Just wakin' up in the mornin', gotta thank God

I don't know, but today seems kinda odd

No barkin' from the dog, no smog

And mama cooked the breakfast with no hog

Ice Cube ~ It Was a Good Day

Fragility - Vantage Point: CrowdStrike (CRWD)

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc NASDAQ: CRWD

I was just wakin' up in the mornin' and I already has a few messages. Computer screens around the world were BLUE, literally, and companies were feeling the BLUE. They were finding out that their businesses were coming to a screeching halt. Airlines could not fly, employees could not login, and the government could not operate. The news was a "normal" update from the cybersecurity company, CrowdStrike, contained errors and had disrupted how Microsoft computers were operating. Ahhh who cares. Well, I like to put things into perspective by providing some context. Roughly 70% of computer systems run Microsoft software and I've recently heard CrowdStrike is the endpoint detection solution for a majority of companies. For me directly, it meant that I was not able to log into my company laptop. I had two simple takeaways from this event:

1. Systems are Fragile - It's amazing that one faulty update, that happens frequently, brought companies and their systems down. How does that happen??

2. CrowdStrike's Reach - I know CRWD is big, but I felt their reach firsthand

Value Trading - I've been watching this stock for quite some time and used this opportunity to buy some options in CRWD as the stock fell hard and fast Friday. The day went by and finally at 3:45 I received a message on how I needed to fix my laptop to get logged in. Then strangely I saw a message saying that I had purchased some stock in CRWD. But I had not placed an order? Remember when I said that I had been watching this stock? Well, I had an "open" order that basically would be triggered if for some strange reason CRWD were to drop to levels I thought were worth buying. Maybe I believe that systems can be fixed just like that update I received. 

Fragility - Vantage Point: Economies and Ecosystems

I have often written about the boom then bust nature of economies. In the economic world we call this growth and then recession or inflation and then deflation. The question is why does this happen? Is the system fragile, are ALL systems fragile -- or is the system broken? I'm not here to truly answer the question today, but I wanted to share this question after watching the CRWD issue bring businesses to their knees. From an economic perspective:

1. Economic Fragility - Will debt bring the US to its knees?

    OR

2. Economies Inherently Broken - Is this part of the regularly scheduled program?

How about our crazy weather. For the first time, in a long time my old city Chicago was impacted by a tornado that touched down. Shingles flew off my roof of the home I still own there and then at my current home I think I heard my howling from the fast-paced winds as the house shook. From an ecosystem perspective:

1. Ecosystems Are broken? - Is the rapidly changing climate going to continue to erode coastlines, cause houses to fall of mountainside cliffs, tornados to touch down in the Midwest and cities to flood around the world?

    OR

2. Ecosystems are Fragile - Are systems inherently fragile and this is how it is and will always be?

Fragility - Vantage Point: Politics

I'll let you fill in the section. Is the system broken or is politics inherently fragile? When the US, the superpower of the world, sees an assassination attempt of a former president during a campaign -- are we really just like the rest of world and ALL politics is fragile? Or have we gotten to the point where the system is broken.

Fragility - Vantage Point: Health

Finally, what better sums up fragility than health. I'm watching President Biden on the campaign trail and compare what I am seeing to my experiences with my aging parents. Is that what we are all thinking? This week, I listened to a neighbor describe her husband's response to chemotherapy as he battles cancer and recalled how that hit a similar tune to experiences in my family. 

I've read and continue to follow the stories around Nate Robinson's health. He was literally called 'Superman' as the 5'9 former NBA guard won 2 slam dunk contests catapulting over people. Now he is battling the fragility of his health as high blood pressure and kidney failure have dunked him to the point of depression. His story discusses how the disease may be genetic but also speaks to human desire as he chose to continue playing as he found out about the diagnosis early in his career. I relate so much to his story as I and many others battle high blood pressure and its wide-ranging effects. Are my issues genetic, caused by my choices, factors beyond my control -- or just part of a fragile system to complex to comprehend. Human life is truly amazing -- but I wonder if it's because we ALL share a story of fragility. One disease, one paycheck, one accident and fragility shows its face. But family, friends, memories, and experiences have the amazing effect of pushing fragility to the back of our minds.

2019 Year In Review - Mask On...Mask Off

Thank you Future - Mask On...Mask Off. Represent...I Gotta Represent

Mask Off - I am currently closing the books for 2019 and reflecting on a year of ups and downs.  Personally, I was rocked to my core this year as I lost my father. It was a deafening experience because he was an amazing father, husband, educator, community and spiritual leader. When it happened, many of us were stunned, discombobulated and grasping for balance.  

I use the word numb because I arguably experienced my best personal year I have ever had…and didn’t care.  I was very fortunate from a very early age my father taught me how to be strong, independent, and prepared to lead the family when that time came. So that is what I – what we all have tried to do, with him in mind.  Finally, this year marked my second daughter and 3 nephews being introduced to the world and my family and they are a big source of joy as we recover from our loss. 

Mask On - I get my strength from my family and push on to make a difference in this short life we are given.  I keep my eye on the prize and financial independence, being spiritually guided, and mentally woke is a powerful combination that NOBODY can touch.  So mask on and back to the lecture at hand: I ran the numbers and I turned in a pretty solid year. At roughly 23%, my personal portfolio that I manage did fairly well and IMO I didn't take on a ton of risk as I targeted value stocks.  Some are discarded gems, others I did detailed research and just saw a different story and narrative than many others.  I kind of like going against the grain...following the herd is NOT in my DNA ask Kendrick Lamar. .

Remember you all can do this. Need proof, the broader market turned in a similar performance and an event better performance was found in a technology based strategy like simply buying the NASDAQ index this year (to the tune of roughly 35% this year). I've got big goals this upcoming year and I will introduce them later but here are the remainder of the best picks I uncovered for 2019:

• Symantec / NortonLifeLock (SYMC)- Value Play; Part of the Business was bought out gave us a nice pop 
• Telsa (TLSA) - Value Play Doubled in 2019 
• Sprint (S) - Played options very well (now letting the profits ride on T-Mobile deal approval will be biggest gain if hits)
• Okta (Okta) - Cybersecurity trade that I sold too early but you live and learn
• Allergan (AGN) - A beaten down value play that finally payed off; This company make BOTOX and will be bought out by Abbvie
• Arconic (ARNC) - Pickup up some shares about the $19-21 range; value play that was dogged by litigation from a high-rise fire in London; Sold to early but it's all good
• Humana (HUM) - This stock ran up after a few big issues failed to damper healthcare stocks: 1) the Trump administration came down lightly on fines for not disclosing their negotiated rates ( a supposed game changer to bring down drug prices) and 2) Elizabeth Warren scaling back her Medicare for all plans
• Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - Pleasant Surprise; Stumbled on to an under performing value stock that is under pressure to change CEOs and deliver better results
• Cronos (CRON) - Surprised to see this one was so profitable; traded the Marijuana stock a few times. I have big hopes and so does the alcoholic beverage industry as they took a major stake in this company. One of the few companies I still hold a stake in
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) - Cybersecurity IPO stock that focuses on protecting your devices; They got absolutely crushed after a bag earnings and I was nimble and played this stock very well. I will be back in CrowdStrike this year
• JD. COM (JD) - My patience was rewarded; I calculated that America and China need each other. Trump removing the China tariffs caused this stock to take off from the mid 20s and now its in the mid 30s. This is a core holding for the future 

I want to wish you a very Happy New Years. Many blessings to you all and don't be afraid to dream but do it rationally, help others, take prudent risk, and take care of those who are good to you.

Here is my gift to you the rest of the best:

• VIX Index - I traded in and out of the VIXY; I'm waiting for volatility to return in 2020
• Zscaler - Plagued by earning's misses; I traded ZS in 2019 and expect to be more active in ZS and the Cyber stocks in 2020 as expectations and acquisitions are ripe for the picking
• Kohls - Between dividends and a small profitable trade, Kohls made my list but then turned into my achilles heel; I fell for their splashy venture with Amazon which was probably to cover for a bad earnings call to come. They got crushed and will need to bounce back  
• Century Link - No big notes here. They stabilized around the $10 range and it was a nice win
• Ceasar's - A good example winning and lose. I bet on Ceasars in 2018. Was happy when a deal was announced and thought I won big. No deal came and my trade blew up. I put the trade back on and benefited when El Dorado decided to buy Ceasars...so only a small gain comes from all this work.
• AVEO Pharmaceuticals - I had a small win but AVEO continues to have disappointing drug trials  
• RedHat - bought out by IBM wish I had a bigger position
• Novagold - Gold is back and being helped by Brexit and the recent attacks in the Mid East
• Anadarko - Bought out by Occidental Petroleum; I beat my buddy Buffet to this trade as he funded Occidental's purchase
• Facebook - Hard to fight the beast. They known everything and are selling it...ohh marketing it to anyone with cash
• Foot Locker - Hurt by the China issues, severely under-performed but Nike's resurgence may bode well for them in 2020
• Newell Brands - A value play that I think has bottomed. Let's see if we can trade this stock on the way up 

Clearly 2019's song of the year is HOT by Young Thug featuring Gunna and Travis Scott...

 my job is to keep it HOT in 2020...look out