I Choose You: Riding the Tegna Merger

 

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
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Stop, collaborate, and listen because the Oracle is back with the same old mission. Good morning to you all out there and a very Happy Wednesday to ya. I wanted to quickly post about an investment that I've been writing about for quite some time. For a quick throwback, see these posts on Tegna (TGNA):

URBANOMICS: Tegna (TGNA) - I got the Hook Up Alert

URBANOMICS: Inflation | Stagflation | Recession - Either Way Here's How I'm Trading

URBANOMICS: How to Buy Week of 9/26 - Name that Stock Up 20% In 1 Week

When I first bought shares of Tegna (TGNA), it was thanks to a network of friends who help me spot solid investment opportunities. I call this group my Mansa Musa Network: people whose insight and instincts I trust.

One example is my friend Byron Allen. Years ago, I noticed how interested he was in acquiring this quiet, steady TV media company. At the time, Tegna traded around $12–14, and then Byron came in wanting to buy it for $20 or more. That move caught the attention of other investors, and soon a bidding war pushed the price up toward $24.

I won’t rehash the entire history, but I will close the chapter on what turned out to be a very solid investment. Looking back, it was a simple story: find value, be patient, and let the results play out.

Along the way, I sold about half my position but I held onto the shares I originally bought around $12. More recently, I added smaller positions and that brought my average purchase price to around $18.25. My goal was to trust my instinct that expected that this steady, quietly profitable broadcaster would eventually get bought out. If 5 titans in the investing world have been circling it in the last 4 or 5 years, a hook up is inevitable.

And that’s exactly what happened. As I’ve said before, a merger is a lot like a company getting married.

Tegna got chosen.

Fast‑forward to the merger deal finally closing at $22 per share, and my 2nd position in this stock turned into a nice win. A solid 20%+ return for simply being early, patient, and willing to sit through the noise.

What made this merger or hookup particularly fascinating was the roller‑coaster of headlines: regulatory delays, shifting buyer sentiment, and the usual swirl of speculation that comes with any media‑industry consolidation. Plenty of investors bailed during the uncertainty. But sometimes the simplest strategy, buying at a reasonable valuation and letting the process play out, ends up being the most rewarding. Don't believe me just read. I did a search for Tegna and added posts where I've written about this investment from the inception. I hope it helps you trade and more importantly understand the lesson of finding value and being patient -- in silly things like investments but more importantly within yourself.

I'm out, gotta start my day. Stay blessed.

Ceasars Update: I'm All In...Were U

Quick Update: Ceasars Entertainment's acquisition (i.e., hook up) with El Dorado is approved by all remaining state gaming commissions...the deal is officially sealed.

I most recently wrote here about my Ceasars' trade: Ceasars and El Dorado Hook Up

You also learned in this post about my drive to independent and bout it bout thanks to Master P, Diddy, Robert Smith, and countless black business men. Even though I still have a 9-5 as they say, I have to stay game ready. After spending time with the family, it's back to work. Grinding through the day's news and articles to sharpen my craft...like being in the gym or music studio. I love data analytics so I look for public news available to everyone, analyze the risk, and think deeply about what the projected outcome will be. Many will laugh because being a contrarian I often don't think too hard...I often ask what does the everyday person think will happen and usually I invest and sometimes bet that "the opposite" will occur. Sharks were circling this iconic Ceasars brand awhile back and my billionaire buddy Tilman Fertitta made no secret about it when he was trying acquire the brand I believe a year or so ago via his Golden Nugget holding. Data provided to you in plain sight, now I just needed to evaluate the business and the risk. Well, I didn't have to go far...I practically used to call Vegas a second home for a minute. I'd go 3 sometimes 4 times a year to relax, sports bet, and just let loose with my friends. Where did we often find ourselves...at Ceasars one of the most iconic and recognizable brands in the world. When El Dorado tried to slide into Ceasars DM, many said laughed and said who is El Dorado...they are smaller, less known, and even that the deal would consolidate too much power. I laughed that sounds a lot like our politics and world today. The rich get richer and leaders across the world continue to consolidate power.

So the investment was simple, the gaming industry would salivate at a gigantic new company that will document across the US (casinos are in the South, 4 in New Jersey alone, tracks in Indiana and of course, gaming in Vegas). Then COVID hit and many bailed on their position...need proof look as Ceasars stock price as it dropped to $6. Yes, I flinched as they said no one would go to Casinos a potential hot spot for infection and the gaming commissions would balk at so much consolidation. But I block out the noise and look deeper --- there was too much money to be made, too much power now in the hands of a few players...and citizens who rather be drinking and playing slots then worrying about their health.  So from $6 to know it's well over $12 dollars. We get a little less than $9 bucks paid out being shareholders and the remaining balance is given to us in stock of the newly formed El Dorado/Ceasars entity.  

Nice work for all who got in on the trade...now time for a new stock to invest in.

One of my many trips to Ceasars:

#datadriventrades #againstthegrain #payitforward #ifnotnowthenwhen

Other recent examples of going against the grain:

Sprint -- Traded down to $4 and Wall Street gave it a 35% chance of being approved. Outcome: T-Mobile Acquired Sprint for one of my biggest trades ever

Covid-19 -- I called for shutdowns, masks, and collective unity. Most people thought it's fake and would rather kick it at the beach. Multiple rounds of stimulus means people are hurting, bankruptcies are rising, lockdowns will continue as cases spike. Vaccines are rarely found in the first year...so the Federal Reserve can only inflate the economy for so long. Be safe and be ready

GrubHub (GRUB) + Uber (UBER) --- Hookup Alert

Uber everywhere, pre-rolls in my VIP (skrr skrr) / Yup I Uber everywhere, pre-rolls in my VIP
And I think that chick from Canada / I think she from the six / Yup I Uber everywhere, pre-rolls in the VIP, hey

~ Uber Everywhere (Artist: Made in TYO)

A bold move may be in play my Uber but I'm not mad at them. Many people have been saying the food delivery business is treacherous territory. I actually agree. The deals are so good for delivery right now because of the high competition between GrubHub, DoorDash, UberEats, and others.  Many don't know they are losing tremendous amounts of cash to be the top dog in this space. But I like GrubHub's position as being the dominant player in the industry. As a serial acquirer, they were taking the competition out one by one --- buying them up and essentially putting them out of business. Uber is a competitor in this space and it appears they have had enough. Logged in to my account to see my GrubHub position up fairly big. Why? --- because Uber wants to hook up in a major way.

The stock was halted pending news:

Here you'll see my position from the beginning of the year, an options contract. I listened to the CEO Matt Maloney back in January and it sounded like the company would be evaluating their options of buying or being acquired. 

I'm hoping these two hook-up, nothing is certain until they say I do but this would be a small win for my portfolio but I don't my letting go of that young flashy player on my roster that caused me some heartburn at the beginning of the year. Let's see if it works out.

Full Disclosure: I own option contract(s) in GrubHub from back in January 2020 (see above). Also another disclosure the artist above pronounces his name Make in Tokyo skrr skrr 🚗🚗

Sprint Corp. (S) - Can Ya Hear Me Now

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
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Self - Made

It is February and in honor of Black History Month I want to take a moment to pay my respects to Madame C.J. Walker. In movies and music, we often boast about being the next Tony Montana or Jay Z hustlin' our way from rag to riches.  But the reality is more people would be better off following in the footsteps of Madame C.J. Walker. A woman with an amazing work ethic, she went on to be the first -- let me repeat myself -- the first woman in the US to be a self-made millionaire (no handouts). She was an inventor, businesswoman, and philanthropist, so I can just hope to reach 2 outta 3 on that list.

My path to being self-made may take a different road but I challenge myself often by asking why not me. To quote the great Fat Joe, "Nothin' Can Stop Me I'm All The Way Up".  But back to the lecture at hand.  My goal is to continue Sprinting to greatness...and yesterday I was elated when I saw in my Google news feed that the merger between Sprint Corp. and T-Mobile would finally be approved.  It was one of those moments when you say, "How did Google know I was interested in News About Sprint?"...then I read the headline, screamed for joy, reached out to family and friends and realized I'd deal with Google on another day. Why - Because Sprint Corp. was up over 75% for the day thanks to the judge's final ruling on the merger with T-Mobile. Sprint has my 2020 portfolio and retirement gains literally off to the races.

I guess the feeling is similar to a poker player pushing in a large amount of chips. It's agony waiting for the final card to flip over but when it hits and you realized your hand is the best -- the rush is like none other. I laid out the bread crumbs over the course of the last year, here is a quick recap of how Sprint put me in the limelight because I trade tight...time to get paid blow up like my last trade:

In May 2019 I wrote the following: And Sprint (S), Sprint keeps getting offers to play overseas for T-Mobile but the FTC (like the stock version of the NBA Commissioner) is telling me that the deal is unfair. Funny he doesn't say that to Verizon or AT&T the biggest cell phone carriers. Let a player get his money Commish?!?!  Approve the deal and let me bask in the glory of my draft pick prowess.

December 25, 2019, I followed up and said: Final Summary -- So even though I empathize with the states, it would look bad if the Sprint deal falls apart only to have that company FAIL in a few years. That also would result in the industry consolidating to 3 major players and the same concerns return over customer pricing. I've made a small bet once again on Sprint that this deals get done in the New Year.

December 31, 2019, you caught me saying:  Sprint (S) - Played options very well (now letting the profits ride on T-Mobile deal approval will be biggest gain if hits)

But I was most proud of the detailed analysis I shared back in July of 2019. I told you to follow the money. Like a budding NCIS agent looking for clues, I laid out ALL the evidence in a detailed post:

The contrarian in me points out two simple facts: 1) Capitalism - the deal gets done b/c a lot of people stand to make a ton of money (it is convenient Sprint's commercials say they are doing well, but the Execs say the business is declining).  I do not usually have time to listen to quarterly conference calls but I found it MORE interesting that Sprint executives have been putting their houses on the market since the end of last year. How about the fact that the Corporate Office has already been sold. 👀 Strange this has all happened and the deal is NOT even complete as of this post.  2) Less Choice - Prices have been declining ever since T-Mobile took the American wireless industry by storm with good ole "competition". So you go with the contrarian view that Verizon, AT&T, and the market has had enough of its decline in revenue due to T-Mobile's entrance and the smart investment is for them to buy Sprint. The only thing is how do you sell it to the public. 😇 Well, the Department of Justice (DOJ) has supposedly negotiated a deal for T-Mobile to sell excess spectrum to another party to create a new 4th major wireless carrier. Wait for it...who can't wait to buy cell phone service from Dish Network 💪💪

Urb Lesson of the Day: Everything and everyone has layers. Take time to peel those layers and get to the obvious truths in life. I traded Sprint multiple times in the last 7+ months and tomorrow's announcement will eventually lead to the closure of my outstanding trades.  Disclosure: I own Sprint (S) and by trading from the bottom up...I followed everyday clues hidden in plain site to reduce my risk on what some called the "unlikeliest" deal to get done.

Executives Sell Mansions Before the Sprint Deal is Done: Follow the Mansion Money

#followthemoney       #datadriventrades         #investandchill

Side Hustles 101 - Risk vs Reward

When I write, my goal is not only to express myself but to motivate others that it is not that difficult to invest IN yourself, FOR yourself and for your future. There are examples everyday, similar to General Motors, that company's are willing to do whatever it takes to bring their costs down and that includes recent layoffs to the tune of roughly 14,000 people. Now being an urban economist I remind people it's the game, the hustle, and it will always be that way why???...because it's called "supply" and "demand". Now I'm not much of a math guy BUT: Less demand means less cars = layoffs.

It reminded me of my winters in Chicago and trying to make the train on time.  It just never happened! And of course I need a list of things to blame: why did it have to snow, why are there bad drivers, why is every light red, why did I wear dress shoes that day, why is the train on time, and why isn't someone who sees me on the damn train telling the conductor to wait. So over time (trust me a over a long period of time), I learned to be more aware of my surroundings. Back then, I begin taking my computer home AND when I have one of those potential day horrible snow days...I stopped running to the train and stayed at home... logged in, messaged my team at work, and worked remotely.

It was so simple I kept wondering why I didn't do it sooner. This is how I view side hustles like investing. You can keep doing what everyone else is doing...OR you can unplug, be more aware, better your life and be prepared for the snowy days of life. I often used to joke with people many years ago that soon I would be going to work for the extra income it provided. Note, the key word being extra...supplemental...in addition to. Get yourself a side hustle because while there is blame to go around...I tell people to stop running after the train.

Side Hustle 101
I don't knock any side hustles, gigs, hacks (or whatever slick name people want to call it today) but I do remind people it should have a decent risk/reward trade-off and you should be super conscious of your time. Because the most important commodity in life is ironically your time. Many years ago, when I understood this basic principle, I purposely chose investing. It doesn't take much of my time...I think...and the rewards are pretty good and it's not even something I do full time. But investing has allow me to prepare for the snow day, the blizzard, and anything life throws my way. For me, Side Hustling = Freedom Insurance, many fear the knock on the door...I prefer to yell "I'm Busy at The Moment".

 Myth Busting - I've learned recently that people view some of the things I do are RISKY. The FUNNIEST thing is that I view myself as one of the most risk-adverse person(s) out there.  My profession confirms this theory.  I stay risk adverse because I learned early on that to actually make money to have to be a really good steward of money. Don't take huge ridiculous risks and wait for opportunities that are in your favor. I have learned this from Wall Street, Hip-Hop, and Corporate America...3 very similar industries that recognize one simple rule: BIG BANK TAKE LITTLE BANK. I wait for situations where I have a great chance to win...and then I invest or buy on my terms. This is one reason why I taught myself to play poker. I hate the game because I'm scared to lose money but oddly the principles of poker are amazing at teaching you patience needed to invest. I learned most people just want to play every hand and get in on the action. The greats ones often sit and wait for the right odds.

 And I can't leave without a little stock update. Since we are on the topic of Risk vs Reward, hopefully you recall my write up of Radisys: Radisys Risk vs Reward

Radisys Update:  My update today is Radisys just announced the government approved its merger with Reliance JIO and the acquisition date will be December 7. Go back and read my write-up on August 1st and for those of you that did enjoy that 15%+ gain in 3 months. I liked the trade so much I bought it in my personal account, my retirement account and sent a text to anyone that would listen.