Are Systems Inherently Fragile or are they Broken - CrowdStrike | Economies | Politics | Health

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Just wakin' up in the mornin', gotta thank God

I don't know, but today seems kinda odd

No barkin' from the dog, no smog

And mama cooked the breakfast with no hog

Ice Cube ~ It Was a Good Day

Fragility - Vantage Point: CrowdStrike (CRWD)

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc NASDAQ: CRWD

I was just wakin' up in the mornin' and I already has a few messages. Computer screens around the world were BLUE, literally, and companies were feeling the BLUE. They were finding out that their businesses were coming to a screeching halt. Airlines could not fly, employees could not login, and the government could not operate. The news was a "normal" update from the cybersecurity company, CrowdStrike, contained errors and had disrupted how Microsoft computers were operating. Ahhh who cares. Well, I like to put things into perspective by providing some context. Roughly 70% of computer systems run Microsoft software and I've recently heard CrowdStrike is the endpoint detection solution for a majority of companies. For me directly, it meant that I was not able to log into my company laptop. I had two simple takeaways from this event:

1. Systems are Fragile - It's amazing that one faulty update, that happens frequently, brought companies and their systems down. How does that happen??

2. CrowdStrike's Reach - I know CRWD is big, but I felt their reach firsthand

Value Trading - I've been watching this stock for quite some time and used this opportunity to buy some options in CRWD as the stock fell hard and fast Friday. The day went by and finally at 3:45 I received a message on how I needed to fix my laptop to get logged in. Then strangely I saw a message saying that I had purchased some stock in CRWD. But I had not placed an order? Remember when I said that I had been watching this stock? Well, I had an "open" order that basically would be triggered if for some strange reason CRWD were to drop to levels I thought were worth buying. Maybe I believe that systems can be fixed just like that update I received. 

Fragility - Vantage Point: Economies and Ecosystems

I have often written about the boom then bust nature of economies. In the economic world we call this growth and then recession or inflation and then deflation. The question is why does this happen? Is the system fragile, are ALL systems fragile -- or is the system broken? I'm not here to truly answer the question today, but I wanted to share this question after watching the CRWD issue bring businesses to their knees. From an economic perspective:

1. Economic Fragility - Will debt bring the US to its knees?

    OR

2. Economies Inherently Broken - Is this part of the regularly scheduled program?

How about our crazy weather. For the first time, in a long time my old city Chicago was impacted by a tornado that touched down. Shingles flew off my roof of the home I still own there and then at my current home I think I heard my howling from the fast-paced winds as the house shook. From an ecosystem perspective:

1. Ecosystems Are broken? - Is the rapidly changing climate going to continue to erode coastlines, cause houses to fall of mountainside cliffs, tornados to touch down in the Midwest and cities to flood around the world?

    OR

2. Ecosystems are Fragile - Are systems inherently fragile and this is how it is and will always be?

Fragility - Vantage Point: Politics

I'll let you fill in the section. Is the system broken or is politics inherently fragile? When the US, the superpower of the world, sees an assassination attempt of a former president during a campaign -- are we really just like the rest of world and ALL politics is fragile? Or have we gotten to the point where the system is broken.

Fragility - Vantage Point: Health

Finally, what better sums up fragility than health. I'm watching President Biden on the campaign trail and compare what I am seeing to my experiences with my aging parents. Is that what we are all thinking? This week, I listened to a neighbor describe her husband's response to chemotherapy as he battles cancer and recalled how that hit a similar tune to experiences in my family. 

I've read and continue to follow the stories around Nate Robinson's health. He was literally called 'Superman' as the 5'9 former NBA guard won 2 slam dunk contests catapulting over people. Now he is battling the fragility of his health as high blood pressure and kidney failure have dunked him to the point of depression. His story discusses how the disease may be genetic but also speaks to human desire as he chose to continue playing as he found out about the diagnosis early in his career. I relate so much to his story as I and many others battle high blood pressure and its wide-ranging effects. Are my issues genetic, caused by my choices, factors beyond my control -- or just part of a fragile system to complex to comprehend. Human life is truly amazing -- but I wonder if it's because we ALL share a story of fragility. One disease, one paycheck, one accident and fragility shows its face. But family, friends, memories, and experiences have the amazing effect of pushing fragility to the back of our minds.

Why are We Seeing High Inflation? -- The Block is Hot

Investing In Yourself – Using Pillars to Build Your Core	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/urbanomics-pillars-path-set-for.html
Setting Budgets + Saving for Black Swans	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2013/02/personal-finance-budget-101-free-credit.html
	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2019/11/hey-henry-high-earner-not-yet-rich.html
How to Open My First Brokerage Account	https://urbanomics.blogspot.com/2015/04/personal-finance-101-starting.html
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Inflation is Coming, No Inflation is Here:

I have never really looked back over time to understand when and why I post. I have a feeling it probably aligns over time with when our economy is at its highest and lowest. I've come to conclude that if I put my thoughts in writing and it has a historical time stamp on it, then eventually over time I can change minds (by looking at my past thoughts). I have molded myself over time to being a contrarian...and this means I appreciate going against the grain. I don't try to follow the crowd. The crowd is like a herd and in fact where and when I see a stampede I run away. 

I believe this is how I see risk, protect myself from negative risk, and then eventually use leverage to capitalize on risk. I take these life lessons and simply apply them to the stock market. I try to create habits and repeatable practices that can be applied to the game of life and carry these concepts over to the stock market game. Notice, I purposefully called them a game. There is an ebb and flow to everything in my opinion and you have to know how the game is played. I take time to find, learn, and observe this lifecycle in everything. Whether it's the game of life, the stock market game, sports, or our economy you will notice they all have cycles. Why this repeats OR cycles like a clock is unbeknownst to me, but I'd be a liar in telling you that understanding this concept has made me successful.

I clearly am a broken record because over the years, I've posted about how the economy roughly goes up and down in cycles. From observing the stock market, I can tell you LIKE CLOCKWORK, we roughly have periods of boom and busts that cycle OR repeat every 8-10 years. Read my blog and I think I've thoughtfully documented the following:

• 1987 - Savings and Loan Crisis | Black Monday Crisis - The stock market (via the Dow) was down 22% in one day
• 1995 - 2000 Dot Com Stock Market Soars - It gave us Amazon, Semiconductor Stocks
• 2002 - Dot Com Bubble Busts - Every business added a Dot Com and many did not survive
• 2004 - 2007 - The Hot Housing Markets Soars - Homes prices and buying skyrocket, and no interest loans become the norm
• 2008 - Financial Crisis - We lose Lehman Brothers and financial markets are in turmoil; I used this downturn to finally purchase my first house in 2010 thanks to the First Time Homebuyers credit led by the Obama administration; I also started buy stocks again when the Federal Reserve started lowering interest rates
• 2014 -18 - I wrote in 2014, that the Dow should take a bow. It reached all-time highs. I was starting to plan for a slowdown but then President Trump surprised me and many in 2016 by vocally telling the Federal Reserve NOT to raise interest rates (which slows the economy down) and he doubled down on cutting business taxes which created a Trump era boom after we already had a Obama era boom. Remember unemployment and minority unemployment were at record lows during the Obama presidency and then the set new record lows during the Trump presidency
• 2019 - COVID-19 Crisis led a to a health crisis, stock market meltdown and the entire globe was under siege
• 2020 - COVID Stimulus + Payment Protection Program + Child Tax Credits - because the Federal Reserve could not lower interest rates as they were at 0%, Congress stepped in literally made it rain. 

If you look at this historical backdrop that I documented, the Federal Reserve talked about raising interest rates in 2016 as the economy was doing great 8 years after the financial crisis. But when then President Trump vocally broke the separation of powers and vocally told the Federal Reserve in as many words to not raise interest rates...I believe it led to 2 things:

1) Our economy never really cooled down from 8 years of doing well and started to get hot. I remember in my 2017-18 search for my second home getting outbid and racing to find the next house. Only come to find out this would get even worse in 2020.

2) When COVID-19 hit and shocked our economy we could not lower interest rates. By creating all those stimulus programs and most being for businesses who did not have to pay them back, the US economy was flooded with cash. This is equivalent to pouring gasoline on an already white hot fire.

The gasoline lead to something similar to the Dot Com Bubble, only this time you might call it the Cryptocurrency and Housing rise. Don't believe just look at the headlines:

1. Gamestop, AMC Theatres, and Crypto ruled the day. haha Gamestop and AMC were virtually closed during the pandemic and they are skyrocketing more than our most valuable companies in the world. Crypto which is backed by nothing and can't be used to pay for toilet paper and groceries is now one of the most valuable currencies in the world? Notice what bubbles and inflation begins to do. It makes the unreal -- real, the unfathomable -- possible, the unrationale -- rational. 
2. The 10 richest persons in the world are worth more than 40% of the bottom 40% of the world, which is roughly 3.1 Billion people. 
3. 88 bids were made on one home; 25% of homes in the US were bought by corporations

Pouring gasoline on a white-hot economy did not cause these strange investment scenarios or market inequities...it exacerbated and amplified them. We are now at a point where the only tool we have to slow things down is the Federal Reserve. They pour water on the fire by raising interest rates and this doesn't cause slow burn rather a cold shock. For the last 5 weeks the markets have dropped sharply, convulsing their way down. Interest rates have jumped from 3% to 5%. So I started to dip my toes back into the real estate market to see if I could take advantage of the situation. Nope, the open house I went to was visited by other and I was greeted by the agent telling me this house was already under contract. This tells me the market is still to hot. To change habits, the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates until it makes you feel sick. 

Crypto hit all-time highs of $60K and now its below $30K

ROKU was at $400 at one point, now decimated to $below $100

 The goal is to raise rates to stop your buying of homes, stocks, crypto which is fueling inflation. 

This is why I moved my retirement funds to inflation - protected investments last year in anticipation. This is also why I'm disappointed in myself when I didn't sell Spotify and ROKU at their highs. I saw it coming and didn't do enough. These stocks have been decimated and are down big time. The funniest is the Federal Reserve told you this is exactly what they wanted to do.