This Just In...

I ran a screen tonight and recent stocks that have come to my attention are:

Patriot Coal (PCX)
AVID Technology (AVID) - $20.44
Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN)
Owens Corning (OC) - 20.56
Biomimetic Therapeutics (BMTI) - 9.65 * This one has taken off and we need to wait for a pullback.

I will actively look to add Owens Corning to my portfolio. AVID has been in my portfolio before and I would look to make a short term gain out of this trade again.

Enjoy,

URB

Do you have hops? - Price Hops

I am sitting back, watching a basketball game and I would never ask Kobe Bryant this question..."Hey man you got hops?" Because he and anyone within 100 feet would probably come running up to me, smack me, and then ask why the hell I would ask a dumb question like that. Of course Kobe has hops, he can jump out of the gym!

Well that is not the only thing that has hops lately. For example, most of the things people buy on a daily basis have experienced a term I call "Price Hops". That means that the price has been skyrocketing, off the chain, through the roof, or flat out way too expensive. Take a few basic staples - cheese, milk, eggs, bread, and gas and you tell me that when you go shopping or driving that the you are pulling out more cash. I call it "Price Hops", but you might here the market call it INFLATION.

This definition was provided by Investorwords.com:

Inflation - The overall general upward price movement of goods and services in an economy, usually as measured by the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. Over time, as the cost of goods and services increase, the value of a dollar is going to fall because a person won't be able to purchase as much with that dollar as he/she previously could.
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Urbanomics Constant Reminder: Don’t dismiss the facts that are in front of you (trust yourself)

I came up with a term called "Price Hops" and its no wonder that the price of the things that you are buying on a regular basic are costing you more. Inflation is on the rise and market is taking notice by watching the Producer Price Index. And even if you take food and gas out of the measurement, the index would still rise.

Some of the factors affecting inflation:

The price of oil keeps rising - Upcoming inventory data and weather are big factors

The demand of steel, copper, wheat (commodities) is rising (Wheat is at an time high)

The prices of things America imports are up roughly 13% (highest levels since the 80s)


How to profit during a tough economic period (follow the industry buzz):

Buy Large Cap companies, especially Multinational Companies
Buy the Commodities that keep rising - precious metals, mining, wheat, oil
Buy the Equipment Maker of agriculture and oil refiners
Buy the stuff people buzz about even in tough times

I know you want names:
- AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) - great play on the rise in steel
- Celanese (NYSE: CE) - roughly 2/3 of sales come from outside of US
- Use Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) - JJN, USO, GAZ (examples of funds for nickel, gas, oil, gold, steel)
- Buzz items - No matter how tough the economy is people can't do with those darn flat tv's, dvd's and entertainment programs; I picked up on Zacks.com momentum picks...and for two days in a row they recommended Liquid Crystal Display providers:
AU Optronics (AUO)
Corning (GLW)
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URB UPDATE: The beauty of DOLLAR COST AVERAGING pays off and Avid Technology (recent rise allowed me to recoup all of my loss and I sold my entire position to break even. (More to come on how we turned a bad stock into one that didn't hurt us)
Disclsoure: I sold AVID

See How It's Done...

Then watch me do me. Hopefully I didn't lose you but what I am yapping about is that my plan is to stick to what I know and what I do best. That's keepin' it real 24/7 and my assessment on how to beat the market. I told you that 2008 was in for a rough ride. I still think I owe you a write up about my recession fears for the economy, so I will have to find my notes written on the train sometime and post them. So as usual when the market is going through its rough moments...I usually sit back and get my PAC-MAN on...and that's chomping data day after day to get an assessment on what the heck is going on out there. So for anyone that tunes in I apologize for the gap in postings but thats what I've been doing, camping out in the financial trenches. What do I do for these silent weeks and how can you get in on it:

~ Get your PAC-MAN on with lots of data from newspapers, online financial stories, and economic reports. Recent new stories that you should be aware of:

• More weak data on the economy was just released (i.e., Manufacturing & Economic indicators)
• The price of oil passed the infamous $100 a barrel mark
• Reports show jobs are being lost (unemployment claims are lost), and companies are cutting their workforce
• Gold is breaking through new levels
• International stocks have suffered but have done well on days the US economy is down

~ Pay attention to earnings reports

• Many companies are reporting that as they look through their crystal ball...it ain't looking pretty
• Investors are hammering stocks that report a negative outlook going forward
• The few good companies are getting rewarded for producing positive future earnings

So I try not to panic and reassess what this means to me. And what I got so far is the economy sucks, stocks are getting killed, and "sell the rips and buy the dips" (taken from an analyst on Fast Money on CNBC...I believe Jeff Macke). This has been consistent with my view of the market for the last 3-4 months so I am not making very many changes to what I do...Umma do Me (I'll explain in a sec). But I am listening to the last thing that I have learned and that's sell into positive gains in our stock positions and buy when good stocks tumble hard...and that's sell the rips, buy the dips. This lesson has been learned the hard way this year b/c we've experienced something kinda unusual and that is our companies are not being rewarded for good quarters, rather the analysts are focusing more on future outlooks. Radisys (NASDAQ: RSYS) reported blowout numbers but got hammered because their outlook was not going to be as good. The same can be said for Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX), the plastic flip flop maker. And the last thing I am noticing is that the poor performers are getting absolutely punished. AVID Technology (NASDAQ: AVID), Collectors Universe (NYSE: CLCT), and maybe even Zhone Techonologies (NASDAQ: ZHNE) have all seen death sentences.

Umma Do Me
I plan on doing me by evaluating my current portfolio and trying not to make drastic changes unless needed. I will sell the rips and buy the dips.
Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) - Railroads companies are hot, so I am not touching this position but watching it closely
RSYS - Should have sold before the earnings when it shot up to the $14 range. Got hammered after earnings by over 20% and I buying into the dips and creating a new price point @ the 52 week low. I like anything below $10.50 and placed my point @ $10.10
AVID - This stock also was running up before earnings if you recall hit $28, got crushed and saw lows of $17. I have bought in on the dip here and like the range of under $20, especially in the $19 range.
CLCT - Their earnings report was disappointing but I am still confident that private equity will closely watch the direction of this company. Also they have muscled the company into paying a handsome dividend to shareholders. So each quarter we are getting almost a handsome check to offset some of the losses @ almost a 8-10% yield on an annual basis (Most companies yield 1-2%) So buying into the dip will be difficult here. I bought in at $9.50 but recommend $9 or a really aggressive stance here and see if this touches the 8 dollar range.
ZHNE - Gets the heartburn of the year award because just last week it shot up to $1.18 and we were in very good shape. Then in one day the market took 20% cut into the stock. There have been active buys into this stock and if it gets to levels of $1.01 or lower I am a buyer again.

Disclosure: I own RSYS, and rebought RSYS at stated price point, CLCT own and rebought, AVID own and rebout, ZHNE own, CROX I do not own

So people ask what am I going to do, and I keep it simple: "UMMA DO ME" (courtesy of ROCKO):

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It Must Be Butter...

It must be butter, cause we’re on roll! Now I have to give credit to my boy, Stuart Scott from ESPN who popularized this phrase. Another pioneer who is doing big things, appreciates hip hop, and changed the way we view our television hosts. Now hopefully I can do that for you through this site and on the subject matter of financials (mainly stocks).


~Urbanomics Update ~

Yes sir how did you like the last post where we analyzed Advent Software (ADVS). Just two months ago I told you that this stock, which was already moving in a positive direction, had more room to go. And you know through my investment style all we needed was what I have called a catalyst (Use the search tool to see how many times I talked about catalysts) Now in my short time of watching the market, I’ve noticed that a number of stocks move quickly up or down after a catalyst has been communicated to the masses. That catalyst for ADVS was apparent to a few of us in a number of different ways. Once we found our entry point into this stock, we paid attention to the information that ADVS was giving us through its press releases. I know your thinking, now how hard was that!!! Sorry no magical equation, we just simply paid attention to the fact that ADVS was disclosing through press releases that business was cranking through the roof. In one of their releases ADVS told us that they have developed or enhanced a new product and tons of their clients were signing up to use. Now again, I’m not a genius but this sounds like a solid indicator that their earnings are going to move higher over time, which means the stock price should follow...this was confirmed early through our daily ritual of looking for information on our stocks (See Zacks Newsletter disclosure). So the stock didn’t just take off over night…it was creeping here and there giving us a number of times to buy in at great prices. Remember, ADVS was recommended by URBANOMICS @ 39.25 (click here for: ADVS Recommendation ) and has been up between 15-25% since that recommendation.

But a well known secret that I believe savvy investors take advantage of it was I call the Water Cooler Investor effect. This happens when everybody and their mother get the inside tip from a website, the news, or a friend that a stock is going to do well. When this happens, a catalyst has triggered your Water Cooler Investors to jump on board and we will see huge trading volumes in those stocks. This is what happened to ADVS...it reported earnings (catalyst) confirming exactly what they had told us in press releases for the past few months and when this was discussed in their Earnings Release Conference Call, major news outlets spread the news to our Water Cooler Investors. What was the result, hordes of investors flocked to ADVS and raised the stock up roughly 19% in one day. This was the Leading Percentage Gainer of the Day yesterday and made us all very happy. I will now recommend that you sell ADVS at these levels because while they will continue to grow, the effect of our catalyst will die down in the weeks and months to come.

The perfect scenario is that you own alot of the stock, sell enough to gain your original investment back and some profits, and they play with the house's money. ADVS will be a great stock for years to come but unless you own a substantial amount we can put these gains to better use. I often get the call you show you more proof that our strategy works here at Urbanomics, well do a quick review of some of our recommendations:

ADVS - a return of over 30% in the last three months
MSFT - up 9% today as a result of a catalyst; up 30 since first recommended
RSYS - up 9% today b/c of catalyst; up roughly 5 - 30% depending on when you bought it
BBY - a large value stock that is up 10%
BNI - a large value play that is up almost 10% since first recommended

We also highlight the stock that could do better:
Rite Aid (RAD) - recommended @ 4.45, I still believe in Rite Aid and believe this should be bought at 3.95 or lower to build up our shares in this stock.
Avid Technology (AVID) - This stock was up and could have been sold for a profit; recommended @ 32 and now at 28; I believe that AVID has a longer road to recovery but this stock should be repurchased at levels that approach its 52wk low of 25.55
Adaptec (ADPT) - This one could have been sold for a profit; check the press releases b/c private equity is tightening the reigns around this company in trying to win a board seat. Superman price is 3.23, but nibble at building positions whenever the stock drops below 3.40