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Saturday, July 20, 2024

Are Systems Inherently Fragile or are they Broken - CrowdStrike | Economies | Politics | Health


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Just wakin' up in the mornin', gotta thank God
I don't know, but today seems kinda odd
No barkin' from the dog, no smog
And mama cooked the breakfast with no hog
Ice Cube ~ It Was a Good Day

Fragility - Vantage Point: CrowdStrike (CRWD)

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc NASDAQ: CRWD

I was just wakin' up in the mornin' and I already has a few messages. Computer screens around the world were BLUE, literally, and companies were feeling the BLUE. They were finding out that their businesses were coming to a screeching halt. Airlines could not fly, employees could not login, and the government could not operate. The news was a "normal" update from the cybersecurity company, CrowdStrike, contained errors and had disrupted how Microsoft computers were operating. Ahhh who cares. Well, I like to put things into perspective by providing some context. Roughly 70% of computer systems run Microsoft software and I've recently heard CrowdStrike is the endpoint detection solution for a majority of companies. For me directly, it meant that I was not able to log into my company laptop. I had two simple takeaways from this event:

1. Systems are Fragile - It's amazing that one faulty update, that happens frequently, brought companies and their systems down. How does that happen??
2. CrowdStrike's Reach - I know CRWD is big, but I felt their reach firsthand

Value Trading - I've been watching this stock for quite some time and used this opportunity to buy some options in CRWD as the stock fell hard and fast Friday. The day went by and finally at 3:45 I received a message on how I needed to fix my laptop to get logged in. Then strangely I saw a message saying that I had purchased some stock in CRWD. But I had not placed an order? Remember when I said that I had been watching this stock? Well, I had an "open" order that basically would be triggered if for some strange reason CRWD were to drop to levels I thought were worth buying. Maybe I believe that systems can be fixed just like that update I received. 

Fragility - Vantage Point: Economies and Ecosystems


I have often written about the boom then bust nature of economies. In the economic world we call this growth and then recession or inflation and then deflation. The question is why does this happen? Is the system fragile, are ALL systems fragile -- or is the system broken? I'm not here to truly answer the question today, but I wanted to share this question after watching the CRWD issue bring businesses to their knees. From an economic perspective:

1. Economic Fragility - Will debt bring the US to its knees?
    OR
2. Economies Inherently Broken - Is this part of the regularly scheduled program?

How about our crazy weather. For the first time, in a long time my old city Chicago was impacted by a tornado that touched down. Shingles flew off my roof of the home I still own there and then at my current home I think I heard my howling from the fast-paced winds as the house shook. From an ecosystem perspective:

1. Ecosystems Are broken? - Is the rapidly changing climate going to continue to erode coastlines, cause houses to fall of mountainside cliffs, tornados to touch down in the Midwest and cities to flood around the world?
    OR
2. Ecosystems are Fragile - Are systems inherently fragile and this is how it is and will always be?

Fragility - Vantage Point: Politics


I'll let you fill in the section. Is the system broken or is politics inherently fragile? When the US, the superpower of the world, sees an assassination attempt of a former president during a campaign -- are we really just like the rest of world and ALL politics is fragile? Or have we gotten to the point where the system is broken.

Fragility - Vantage Point: Health


Finally, what better sums up fragility than health. I'm watching President Biden on the campaign trail and compare what I am seeing to my experiences with my aging parents. Is that what we are all thinking? This week, I listened to a neighbor describe her husband's response to chemotherapy as he battles cancer and recalled how that hit a similar tune to experiences in my family. 

I've read and continue to follow the stories around Nate Robinson's health. He was literally called 'Superman' as the 5'9 former NBA guard won 2 slam dunk contests catapulting over people. Now he is battling the fragility of his health as high blood pressure and kidney failure have dunked him to the point of depression. His story discusses how the disease may be genetic but also speaks to human desire as he chose to continue playing as he found out about the diagnosis early in his career. I relate so much to his story as I and many others battle high blood pressure and its wide-ranging effects. Are my issues genetic, caused by my choices, factors beyond my control -- or just part of a fragile system to complex to comprehend. Human life is truly amazing -- but I wonder if it's because we ALL share a story of fragility. One disease, one paycheck, one accident and fragility shows its face. But family, friends, memories, and experiences have the amazing effect of pushing fragility to the back of our minds.



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