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Showing posts with label VIXY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VIXY. Show all posts

Friday, September 16, 2022

The Rebirth of Slick - Baby on Board (Snowflake | Volatility)



Hello to all my Urbanomics readers out there. I have amazing news to share. My family welcomed our 4th child and I'm officially a proud father of my first baby boy!! So, it's time to celebrate life and put your priorities first. I have 4 children, 6 client engagements we currently support, 4 employees, and 3 renters that I interact with. So, I have an entire village of people that look to me for leadership and guidance -- and I take that responsibility very seriously. Every addition to my village, creates more work and stress and it's my job to remove some of that burden. I try to do that through automation (which makes certain task easier), hiring staff to take on repeatable jobs I used to manage, and sometimes flat out saying no - no more work/emails/phone calls. I had to do that the other day when a prospective business partner kept reaching out for me to provide one of my cybersecurity consultants for their project. I don't mind helping but when you call 3x in 30 minutes you are bordering on being annoying and disrespectful and I shared this feedback with that person. 

So, a key Urbanomics lesson I wanted to share is create a plan this will ensure that you move towards a common goal. I have a 60+ point task list that I have my staff check daily to ensure we are taking care of our responsibilities. We must complete timesheets, bill invoices (Accounts Receivable), pay vendors and bills (Accounts Payable), purchase office supplies, execute payroll, and the way I ensure things don't slip through the cracks is by planning. We plan ahead and measure our progress against those plans and milestones. But remember, life will throw you curve balls, and you must hang tight and adjust your plans when needed. 

When it comes to the markets, I still see an economy that's peaked and starting to slow. While I keep getting requests for more jobs, I have to be careful in extrapolating my view into thinking it matches everyone else's view. For example, just because I'm seeing growth in the cybersecurity compliance sector, the layoff stories and reports of slowdowns (did you hear the FedEx CEO on a looming recession??) may be telling a bigger story to come in a year or so. I anticipated the stock market still dropping so you'll recall I moved my retirement funds to cash towards the end of 2021. You've heard me writing about optionality -- and I love taking my ball and leaving. I don't mind throwing the middle finger up and saying I'm gone. Why? Because I like playing games that I can win --- games on my terms and right now the market is a rough game. Just like the real estate market, I'll wait you out.

See these trades I've made recently: short term small hits are what I'm trying to execute on. I executed these trades awhile back and haven't been active. Read a recent post and you'll see my investment themes:

I like beaten down TECH and Volatility as pain is ahead. And I don't just share my wins, I was playing Energy and got a little bit loose with a naked trade I was forced to close in Devon Energy.

Stay balanced, celebrate the wins, learn from your losses. Sending love to all. Peace out:

Recent Trading Wins: 

Snowflake (Theme: Beaten Down Tech)
VIXY (Theme: Volatility Trade)
Redball (Theme: Hedge against my SPAC investment, this will turn into a small gain of roughly $200)


Recent Trading Loss:

Devon Energy - I was playing loose and trading naked. I traded more shares than I owned. When Devon Energy popped the other day, I was forced to sell my position at a loss. Sorry Warren I got greedy and I own this mistake. But also I close my losses and move on.




Saturday, August 08, 2020

If I Ruled the World, Imagine That

Imagine smoking weed in the streets without cops harassin'
Imagine going to court with no trial
Lifestyle cruising blue behind my waters
No welfare supporters, more conscious of the way we raise our daughters
Days are shorter, nights are colder
Feeling like life is over, these snakes strike like a cobra
The world's hot my son got not
Evidently, it's elementary, they want us all gone eventually

Artist(s): Nas ft. Lauryn Hill       Song: If I Ruled the World (Imagine That) 

I'd free all my sons.... and with the loss of Breonna Taylor I feel like I need to free my daughters too. In the land of the "free" and the home of the brave it's irreprehensible that history continues to repeat itself. Why does history repeat well let's ask Trevor Noah. He reminded us that what is happening is not a failure of the system, rather the system work as it's intended. Every movie depicts the home of the brave as one big melting pot, yet when I moved to Chicago I found quite the opposite. I received coded messages even about where to live. They went like this: "Whatever you do don't live on the South Side or the West Side. Being new to the city, I heeded this warning and didn't even include the South or West sides of Chicago in my search for my first apartment. After a few years, I eventually learned this coded message was telling me to stay away from the predominantly African-American sides of town. So when the time came buy my first crib, I put every wish list item that EVERY person (white, latino, AA) told me they dreamed about having in a home in Chicago and then of course I considered my shoestring budget...and guess where it took me...to the Southside -- Lake Shore Drive to be exact. My humble abode is in Hyde Park, hence why I was given the nickname The Oracle of Hyde Park by close friends. Remember when I invest, I am a contrarian --- I listen to mainstream America (the man) and then simply do the opposite. I was always told get city views, have a roof deck, live by the Lake, a garage (if you're lucky), and you can't afford no more than 2 bedrooms (so I went w/ 4 bedrooms, 3 baths in a duplex penthouse). That was true in Lincoln Park but in Hyde Park I found a gem right off the lake by firing two real estate agents and going at my search alone through the aide of a technology startup at the time called Redfin, that "took the bias" from the agents outta my search. Even though gentrification is coming slowly to my hood, I ain't selling because like Nas said "Evidently it's elementary, they want us all gone eventually". So my job is to hold the fort down, teach others how to unplug from the Matrix and join me as in owning assets, shunning the materialist crap that doesn't increase in value, and create a legacy that you can begin to pass down...so hopefully each generation to follow start on an equal footing. 
 
If I ruled the world and everything in it, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X would be my co-Presidents. I never bought into the stereotypical viewpoints that pitted them as polar opposites when in actually they were fighting for the same things. They fought for the equality of African-Americans using different methods but with the same goal in mind. That goal was to free all my sons...and daughters: Emmett Till, Trayvon Martin, Eric Garner, Philando Castille, Laquan McDonald, Breonna Taylor, Amadou Diallo, George Floyd.... from the tyranny of oppression and systemic racism that has continued be it 400 years, 40 years, or even 4 months ago. So I am simply telling people to try a new method, the only language a capitalist nation speaks in --- and that is in owning assets. Using the 4 Pillars, the poor working class can strengthen themselves for the battle ahead. We double down on the basics educational principles of S L A M + (Science, Legal, Arts, Math, +) I shared a few posts ago and build institutions that fight for our best interests. We incentive more people of color to be lawyers, doctors, police, accountants, technology, teachers, clergy, judges and most importantly political professionals that go to battle with one broad goal. A goal that will truly allow our communities to invest ourselves, our neighborhoods, and our family's future. People keep calling these officials in office dumb, when in actuality their plan is working as intended. If you go back and look at the history, the deaths, and the treatment of black people in this country, one might come to a conclusion that these tactics are telling you...you're not wanted or appreciated here. I've made that point on many occasions (again a contrarian viewpoint) and I wonder if it's because I know my roots, have seen a different homeland, traveled the world, speak different languages, and more importantly know the legacy of true kings and queens. I was surprised to hear someone else speak this truth, a musician I listen to often from Nigeria, Burna Boy. He echoed some things I've said for quite awhile:

Source: The Guardian - Burna Boy Interview
"The only way we can move forward is if we all know that Africa is our home and make sure our home is a place that is respected"

“I’d like to use this opportunity to say that some time around 1835, there was a mission to turn Africa into a dominated nation,” “Now is the time to overturn that, and go back to the royalty that we were, because, in order for black lives to matter, Africa must matter.”

To quote Nas at the end of If I Ruled the World, "I'd Open Every Cell in Attica Send em to Africa". I agree with Burna Boy that to truly move forward, African-Americans must first remember they are Africans. My trip back home to Sierra Leone was the most amazing experience that I've ever felt. Noticed the world felt - I was surrounded by the energy of belonging as soon as I stepped off the plane. Your talk, dress, style, swag, names, face, dance....to see and feel the source of it all was truly profound. It gave me a new set of armor as I came back home to the US and engaged in corporate meetings, business negotiations, or dealt with people who want you to feel less than or worse place a knee on your neck. If you're not working towards having options --- the option to walk away from that job, negotiation, negative energy...then you may be consumed by it. 

This week, I made another stride in my side hustle being truly my main hustle. I signed my first corporate supplier agreement. I'll post about this moment another time but it was painful as every step of the way I was dealing with negotiations that tried to take advantage of me, my value, my legacy that I'm building for my kids. I know when I'm being shortchanged, we all do and I held out...and got almost everything I've asked for. Now my new mission is to deliver on this agreement and show them what "WE" can do and I'm bring a whole lot of people that look like me along for the ride. This will be the final trade I share for awhile as I hunker down for what I believe will be turbulence in the American economy beginning in the 4th Quarter. School starts, flu season, a hunt for a vaccine, and a grid-locked political system that acknowledges record amounts of people are unemployed, with back-due rent, and agitated because they can't go back to their normal consuming lifestyle they've been sold --- are all a recipe for the unknown. One thing I've learned from analyzing the corporate world is they like "certainty"...and when the future is uncertain I think Volatility comes. There are many haters in life but I know my worth, so I don't spend time entertaining their BS. I write so the world can see and invest because my trades are my journal documenting exactly what I was thinking. I knew last year uncertainty was coming so I purchased literally just that a VOLATILITY fund that protects your portfolio when the fear sets into the economy, the markets, and people. It's not about the money, it's about making educated clear minded decisions about the future using very good clues from today. 

In November, I felt something wasn't right and I started to best against the markets, economy, etc. It resulted in the fastest and the largest gain I easily ever experienced in my life when COVID hit in March. See here: I was up roughly $29K after it was all said and done!!!
Notice I purchased those shares in November 2019 (see above). Nov, Dec, January I began to doubt if my thesis was correct: The market was over extended, one economic shock would send it cratering. noting had happened for 3 months and doubt sank in like it does when someone doesn't know where they came from. So on January 27th I purchased a hedge giving in to that doubt (see below). This hedge would allow me to walk away with a nice payday ($3K) but IF I was right about my thesis...I would be kicking myself for a long time to come. 
Well, guess what I should have never doubted myself. I was right about volatility in a major way and my shares ended up being worth roughly $29K in just a few months. I was locked in at that nice payout I spoke about above ($3K). For most of March, until my hedge ended, I kicked myself as I watched my hedge closeout --- meaning I gave the other $26K in profits back to someone else.


At the end of the day, $3K in profit is still a game changer for this poor boy from the hood. All $29K would have been one for the record books. But Nas and Burna Boy, I'm just getting started and the goal is to bring our people with me for the ride. Because If I Ruled the World...Sky's the Limit.  For those that think I'm playing, you better get out of the way.

Monday, March 02, 2020

The Virus Goes Viral --- Why Stocks are in a Bear Market

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The Virus Goes Viral
This week the stock market was rocked by round the clock news of a SARS like coronavirus, COVID-19. The Dow fell 12 percent this week alone, which I believe is the biggest one week drop since the dreaded financial crisis. With over 3 Trillion Dollars worth of value erased in US Stocks, I get asked what in the world do I think is going on and what am I doing during a period like this. This very topic came up today when I spoke with my dear friend who happens to be one of the biggest mortgage brokers in the country.

When asked for my thoughts -- I told him plainly the Virus has gone Viral. And what I meant by this is, in today's hyperconnected world we are getting peppered with news updates, pictures, and opinions all day. I truly believe the virus has gone viral and we are seeing the market reacting to real-time tweets, posts, and texts as news comes out instantly. Gone are the days where we all had to tune into CNN or wait until our local news came on to try and decipher what was happening a world away. Over the past few weeks, I've seen constant pictures of cruise ships (not able to dock), masked people in coffee shops, and empty streets and restaurants. So my mind instantly goes to my favorite End of the World shows like the "The Last Ship" or "The Walking Dead" which similarly displayed quarantined ships and empty streets, respectively. The fact is as a county and world we may be more worried and nervous that ever before (thanks to Ring doorbells) and a polarized political environment. That uneasiness and mistrust, today more than ever, may be causing this natural response that this is the Big One. I am NOT arguing for less information but our futures will be scarier when you can watch a live counter of people getting sick and dying across the world.  

First, we should be amazed at how rapidly people now move across the world. When we had SARS back in 2003, the world was less mobile and while that virus hit with a fury -- it impacted less people. COVID-19 is a similar genetic strain to SARS but is clearly more powerful (virulent) and contagious. In a more mobile world, when one part catches a cold the rest of the world will catch that cold or at least sneeze. Similar to the flu and cold season, those most at risk clearly appear to be the elderly and people with underlying health conditions. 

So people need to hear from those in charge to ensure that a plan is in place for their health and well-being. This is a critical response to all those real-time updates we get and the apocalypse shows I watch. If I got a real-time update of flu infections and deaths each season, I would never leave the house (let alone a homicide update for most metro cities).  I wasn't paying attention back then  -- but does anyone know what we did as a country when SARS or Avian (Bird) flu impacted the world?  I don't so my point is don't panic.  Hospitals already restrict youth during flu season so our next best steps are: a) protecting our elderly    b) reducing close contact    c) washing our hands   d) hoping for warmer weather

With markets being at ALL TIME highs, it is a very rationale to be scared but don't panic and definitely don't SELL everything.

What Should Be Sold ---
Segments of the markets involving in travel, leisure, hospitality, dining, and retail. In addition, businesses with significant exposure to Chinese customers or China's supply chain. They will be sold off because we just don't know how long this disease will last. Also, due to today's hyperconnected world, NO ONE wants to be the company that didn't close its doors soon enough, cancel flights fast enough, or take the necessary precautions to keep customers safe. So businesses in this segment will take a hit.

What Should Be NOT BE SOLD ---
I think your healthcare, internet, gold and gold mining stocks should not be sold. I also think you need to try and protect your portfolio. Protect Protect Protect - you'll see that's why I've own gold related stocks like Novagold since 2008-9. Oddly enough that was the same time I advised my mortgage broker to add Gold to his retirement portfolio. I recently wrote about a healthcare stock: Gilead, a company helping to develop a vaccine for COVID-19. And I want to share with you an investment vehicle called the Volatility Index. Known as the VIX, this offers some protection when the stock market gets very volatile. I bought shares in the 4th quarter of 2019 (a little early) when I thought the market was getting to high -- I purchased shares around the $15 a share range. I'm glad to have insurance protection when the market feels like it is falling off of a cliff.

I own VIXY which is a volatility index fund. When things seem too good to be true, BE FEARFUL, and buy protection. Roughly 10% of my portfolio is being offset by VIXY which gives me some piece of mind on down days.





Try and protect yourself in advance of market downturns and then during the downturns we go bargain hunting. I picked up the following stocks in the last two days:
  • Facebook (internet) 
  • Match Group Inc (internet) - Owners of dating sites: Match, Tinder, PlentyOfFish, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Twoo, OurTime, BlackPeopleMeet, and LoveScout24
  • Teladoc (healthcare) - Virtual/Video conferencing healthcare services with your doctor and the future of a simple doctor's visit
  • Uber - While ridership will decline, Uber Eats may pick up, I think it will be temporary and for a stock that fell from $42 to $29... an opportunity exists
My assumption is most people will be swiping right, wanting an expert doctor opinion or eating in. Me, I'll be #investandchill